Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Jan 2013 14:59

In AP BJP is quite weak and Jagan has a big criminal gang with network every where and very very big war chest. YSR loot and freebee politics earned some name and simpathy for his son. So it is a mix of all. But I do not know how long it will last.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Jan 2013 17:55

Sushil Kumar Shinde seems to be Diggy Raja's opposite number in INC camp. First, he takes a huge chunk of the responsibility to hang Kasab and then shoots darts from HS's shoulders.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 Jan 2013 18:15

Nitish endorses Rajnath

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Jan 2013 18:58

They both are said to be personal frinds. Further we need not care much for Nithsh who is making himself a fool in the resent past.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 23 Jan 2013 19:23

Narayana Rao wrote:They both are said to be personal frinds. Further we need not care much for Nithsh who is making himself a fool in the resent past.

He was always a fool, personally I never got what was the big hoopla about Nitish's "leadership" skills. If it wasn't for BJP Nitish would have never become the CM or even got the limelight he gets.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 23 Jan 2013 19:44

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/gover ... /1063688/2

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 23 Jan 2013 19:56

sooraj wrote:http://www.indianexpress.com/news/gover ... /1063688/2

May be the land scams she committed in Rajasthan are being used by Modi to silence her.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Jan 2013 21:55

No, that is just to lull Modi. He will be attacked using the Lokayukta towards the middle of this year. Unless he takes the matter to the constitutional court.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 23 Jan 2013 22:14

Yogi_G wrote:I dont understand why Jagan has support from upper caste voters, I would have expected them to support BJP.

The typical attitude of UC and educated folks: YSR may be corrupt. But he takes control of the situation... killed naxalites after negotiating, murdered lot of TDP leaders/workers. So they credit him as decisive, effective. Also lot of them are Govt. employees. They want a free ride Govt. (Corrupt/No responsibility) leader who will let them live without working and collecting bribes. I knew teachers who told how they all fooled villagers to vote for Congress instead of PRP or TDP in 2009 election.

Also... Unlike us, no one cares about conversions. No one is connecting the dots on how these people after conversion politically, religiously and openly gang up together to act against the interests of society, nation and state. There is no inherent connection for people. They just are absorbed in their self preservation: make money, somehow make your kid goes to engg/doctor and then just watch movies. Go to temple and so some shanti/pooja and their responsibility to religion is done. Nothing else matters, not community, not state or even nation.

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 23 Jan 2013 23:37

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 23 Jan 2013 23:39

Sagar G wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:They both are said to be personal frinds. Further we need not care much for Nithsh who is making himself a fool in the resent past.
He was always a fool, personally I never got what was the big hoopla about Nitish's "leadership" skills. If it wasn't for BJP Nitish would have never become the CM or even got the limelight he gets.

I don't know about leadership skills, but he does have governance skills. He has definitely brought about an improvement in Bihar, and that is not an easy thing to do considering the damage Laloo had done. He was also the only other CM candidate besides Modi fighting and winning on a mostly development and governance plank.

The BJP's conundrum is that one of their biggest allies is almost sure to leave them (and maybe even join the UPA) if they select a PM candidate who is most likely to help them win in the LS polls. This is one of the reasons I really doubt their chances in 2014.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 23 Jan 2013 23:43

nachiket wrote: The BJP's conundrum is that one of their biggest allies is almost sure to leave them .

No he wont, he is merely playing to the gallery.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 23 Jan 2013 23:48

Sanku wrote:
nachiket wrote: The BJP's conundrum is that one of their biggest allies is almost sure to leave them .
No he wont, he is merely playing to the gallery.

Well let's see. I hope you are right. The BJP has few allies as it is.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Jan 2013 23:58

Sanku wrote:
nachiket wrote: The BJP's conundrum is that one of their biggest allies is almost sure to leave them .
No he wont, he is merely playing to the gallery.

He will leave if a decisive declaration of Modi as PM candidate happens. The whole wheels in wheels and spins are being executed to keep away from official no-nonsense declaration of Modi as BJP's PM candidate.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 24 Jan 2013 00:02

nachiket wrote:I don't know about leadership skills, but he does have governance skills. He has definitely brought about an improvement in Bihar, and that is not an easy thing to do considering the damage Laloo had done. He was also the only other CM candidate besides Modi fighting and winning on a mostly development and governance plank.

The BJP's conundrum is that one of their biggest allies is almost sure to leave them (and maybe even join the UPA) if they select a PM candidate who is most likely to help them win in the LS polls. This is one of the reasons I really doubt their chances in 2014.

Honestly don't even know anything about his governance skills as well since never heard or read anything such unlike that of Modi who even after being the favourite punching bag of rented, dented media has shown actual growth both on ground and on government records. Didn't a news item posted some time ago about Bihar being in the bottom of a list of states with most friendly environment for business, so much so for governance I say and he has a shot for the CM's chair because BJP supports him. BJP did a great job for itself by winning 91 seats in the last state assembly elections, they have effectively got Nitish by his balls and if he does any drama about Modi then BJP should exercise it's power and crush the crown jewels altogether. Nitish doesn't have the charisma or the capacity to be elected on his own, just because a few chootiyas in media have gone gaa gaa over him he has started to think of himself as a national level leader

. There was news that in some recent yatra that he did or is doing he faced a lot of angry crowds and that is a big reason why he has mellowed down in recent times. Just making a few roads doesn't == development and I bet those roads were made because of BJP's presence as it is it's hallmark job of making roads whenever and wherever it comes to power. Maha, Guj, M.P., Golden Quadrilateral.....

Bihar's problem is that it hasn't got any leader better than Nitish and that's why he looks so good when compared to the rest of the crap but that doesn't mean that at national level or in reality he is good, I very well remember his disastrous term as Railway minister when accidents had became a norm so it actually surprises me when people say oh look Nitish is such a good leader. The situation is somewhat similar to bengal where either you have didi or communists to choose from, both of them are actually crap but there people don't have a choice because of lack of political choices.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jan 2013 00:05

First test for RNS leadership will be how he handles BSY in Karnataka.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 24 Jan 2013 00:35

Sagar G wrote: Honestly don't even know anything about his governance skills as well since never heard or read anything such unlike that of Modi who even after being the favourite punching bag of rented, dented media has shown actual growth both on ground and on government records.

Regarding Nitish's governance skills:
[No offence to Bihar or Biharis as this can happen to anyone if things go bad for too long.]

Imagine a stinking pond and add super stinking human excreta to that. Laloo did that bad to Bihar. All Nitish was able to do was to remove the super stinking human excreta from that pond and suddenly the frog in that pond started breathing. When the frog started breathing it forgot that it is still a stinking pond that needs a lot more cleanup and change. As Nitish is now a herro, he is now back to typical secular/mullah apeasement politics of a typical GV politician. Netagiri is a fundamental part of the heamoglobin in that state's politicians.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 24 Jan 2013 01:55

Given where Bihar was Nitish is doing a good job, so is Sushil Modi. I think they have nothing to fear electorally if Modi comes to power. It is more for Nitish's ego and show egged on by the same people who pressured Naveen into leaving the alliance. Meanwhile, the other dump in the region Bengal has no messiah.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 24 Jan 2013 02:02

sooraj wrote:http://www.indianexpress.com/news/gover ... /1063688/2

No, In an official capacity the governor, especially in the legislative assemblies he has to read the script given by the state govt. He cant diverge from the script. He has veto power over the script but the script itself is written by the state govt and this speech was inside the gujarat legislative assembly.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 24 Jan 2013 08:22

From faking news

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Jan 2013 08:41

ramana wrote:First test for RNS leadership will be how he handles BSY in Karnataka.

Rajnath Singh is a useless piece of crap. He cant move a .... in karnataka. I have given up on BJP, i mean, out of a zillion people in your organization, all you can find is this damn fool under whom you lost the 2009 polls. bunch of idiots.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Jan 2013 09:05

Reasons for losing elections in 2009 may not because of Rajnath Singh. Frankly it has more to do with people like Advani. In any event Rajnath Singh or any BJP president is not going to be all powerful whose decisions will result in win or loss in national level elections. Now any general election became fragmented one with statewise results and trends. So BJP has to take each and evey state it can get because it is quite weak in south other than in Karnataka. So Karnataka in south is important and hence Yaddi needed for BJP.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 24 Jan 2013 09:09

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:First test for RNS leadership will be how he handles BSY in Karnataka.
Rajnath Singh is a useless piece of crap. He cant move a .... in karnataka. I have given up on BJP, i mean, out of a zillion people in your organization, all you can find is this damn fool under whom you lost the 2009 polls. bunch of idiots.

As per Ravishankar Prasad, today on cnnibn, RNS had no major role to play in 2009 election and hence can't be held responsible for it.

http://ibnlive.in.com/cnnibnvideos/top-us/317412.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jan 2013 09:45

MR, may be that is what they want everyone to think.

Many gains:
BTW his elevation has removed a lightning rod for INC and psecs.
And Gadkari will face the legal system and if he is guilty pay the price.
BTW LKA is forced to sing his praises.
And he is from UPA and should be good for some seats.

Also BSY beef is with NG.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 24 Jan 2013 10:37

Narayana Rao wrote:Reasons for losing elections in 2009 may not because of Rajnath Singh. Frankly it has more to do with people like Advani. In any event Rajnath Singh or any BJP president is not going to be all powerful whose decisions will result in win or loss in national level elections. Now any general election became fragmented one with statewise results and trends. So BJP has to take each and evey state it can get because it is quite weak in south other than in Karnataka. So Karnataka in south is important and hence Yaddi needed for BJP.

Reason for 2009 election victory for INC was quite a few , the chief being:-

1) Huge Budget deficits from the savings made by NDA, Hikes to INC ruled state and Central Govt Salaries, No railway Hikes, No petrol Hikes, Projects like Jalnagyam etc.. People initially were very happy with Govt Largesse thinking money was falling from the sky, basically spending tomorrow money today. Remember even Hilter was very popular in Germany, since his Huge Public deficits and building autobahns was the chief reason people thought he was taking the country in the right direction etc.

2) UPA-1 was reaping the benefits of NDA Goverence and post Parakram the Business community and General Middle class was very supportive of this growth.

3) Minorities were scared shit in AP, TN, UP of BJP since Gujarat 2002 riots(nobody was disputing that 100's of feotuses were cut open and XDTV which waits for official confirmation in Pak beheading- did not have such courteses for Gujarat riots), 2008 Kandhamal. Lalu Justice Banerjee report, Rizwanur Rehman, Sorhabuddin Sheikh, Ram Sene Mutlalik Attack, MNS shenegians on hapless women etc. UPA govt had also supposedly saved them from POTA.

4) Agreement with USA on Nuclear Power, supposed to mean India had become a super duper ally of the USA and MMS staking his Govt for it.

5) Absolute silence by Media on Scams in UPA 1 coupled with media Bombast campaign on how RTI ACT had ended corruption

6) General trust in the Public about Media being Honest

The above 6 meant INC has unprecedented support in Urban India and even in BRF MMS had everyone praising him. After all SHarm el Sheikh etc. came afterwards or too late for people to rethink

Rural India

1) NREGA

2) Farm Loan waiver election funding scheme as now reported by CAG and RBI

3) No failed monsoons to give rural areas a pain in the Butt

4) Forest Rights Act

I think BJP supporters tend to blame BJP rather than the cleverness of INC and its allies across India and fail to recognize its dedicated voter base.

Let not forget the lowest ever tally in LS for INC was when SG took over president in 1999. No INC person ever revolted.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Jan 2013 20:10

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... sal-report

But let’s talk practical facts, how useful has this been for Babu and the Telugu Desam? In fact, Chandrababu has walked more that his arch rival the late Y S Rajasekhar Reddy and created a new record. But again, will it be really helpful to him for the elections in 2014? He has come across many jolts during this Padayatra like the death of Yerram Naidu, the stage collapse, his health etc. However, are people truly receiving him as they did with YSR? Babu realizes that his neglect of the agricultural sector and farmers cost him dearly during the last two elections. And this time he put good focus on them and gained a good response. His move is being criticized by his political opponents especially YSRCP. But their criticism has not been proving fruitful because Babu is getting positive feedback and points for his efforts.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 24 Jan 2013 21:02

Nitesh has a support base where about a third is comprised of BJP core voters.

If other parties can give him this support it is only then that he can begin to think of leaving NDA. And it may be too long before that happens. Chances are BJP too has increased its vote share in Bihar. Not much only a few percentage points but enough to muddy the waters for everybody else.

And if NDA wins with Modi in the middle then there is no way a party will move out. The split may come only after the elections and that too if NDA fails to do well.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 24 Jan 2013 22:38

vijayk wrote:http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... sal-report

But let’s talk practical facts, how useful has this been for Babu and the Telugu Desam? In fact, Chandrababu has walked more that his arch rival the late Y S Rajasekhar Reddy and created a new record. But again, will it be really helpful to him for the elections in 2014? He has come across many jolts during this Padayatra like the death of Yerram Naidu, the stage collapse, his health etc. However, are people truly receiving him as they did with YSR? Babu realizes that his neglect of the agricultural sector and farmers cost him dearly during the last two elections. And this time he put good focus on them and gained a good response. His move is being criticized by his political opponents especially YSRCP. But their criticism has not been proving fruitful because Babu is getting positive feedback and points for his efforts.

I think BJP needs to do similar walkathon/Pada Yatra country-wide if it wants to put dent to the INC and regain power. What came out through media before the yatra has been proven wrong in afterwards by directly going to people by TDP chief. On the other hand BJP is sitting pretty and wasting time on useless Telangana issue and it could not tell any failures of the Central Congress to the people.

Boycott media and go to people, all the anti-BJP media, Shinde, Rahul, don't matter.

Yogesh · Post by **Yogesh** » 25 Jan 2013 01:22

BJP Drama of president selection

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 25 Jan 2013 01:48

Yogesh wrote:BJP Drama of president selection

And soap in Jaipur was an activity part of democratic process

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 25 Jan 2013 02:40

Sushupti wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
Rajnath Singh is a useless piece of crap. He cant move a .... in karnataka. I have given up on BJP, i mean, out of a zillion people in your organization, all you can find is this damn fool under whom you lost the 2009 polls. bunch of idiots.
As per Ravishankar Prasad, today on cnnibn, RNS had no major role to play in 2009 election and hence can't be held responsible for it.

http://ibnlive.in.com/cnnibnvideos/top-us/317412.html

Which begs the question, if the party President had 'no major role' to play in a general election then what the hell was he there for in the first place?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 25 Jan 2013 02:49

Yogesh wrote:BJP Drama of president selection

Goa CM Parrikkar was considered. May be it would have been a good idea to suck in the middle class. He won over Christian voters in Goa, clean candidate, IITian etc.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 25 Jan 2013 02:53

^ What is the point of taking out Chief Ministers and making them party presidents?

The dhimmi media keeps repeating what it is good at, lies. How can someone be a CM and also the party president and also do pada yatra for 2-300 days and so on. The leadership has to be shared.

This is what happens in every party. But when it comes to BJP somehow it is projected as internal tussle and lack of leadership and lack of alliance partners and lack of acceptance.

How stupid seculars can be? Dhimmi stupid.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 25 Jan 2013 02:53

sunnyP wrote: Which begs the question, if the party President had 'no major role' to play in a general election then what the hell was he there for in the first place?

Basically, this notional president problem is due to not more than two consecutive term rule brought in late eighties to stop the hogging of this post by "Windbag Ji". This happened when Lohpurush was given the reign of BJP post 84. Just as Kushabhau Thakre deserved no credit for BJPs win in 98 and 99, similarly RNS can't be held responsible for 2009 debacle.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2013 04:22

Pioneer op-ed, 25 Jan 2013

Tough road ahead for new BJP chief

Author: Kalyani Shankar

Rajnath Singh has to keep the party united and enthused. He must tread carefully while reconstituting his team and take everyone along

If the Congress had choreographed the coronation of the Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi perfectly and built up an atmosphere of bonhomie in Jaipur last week, the BJP has failed to show a smooth transition of power in the party.

In a dramatic anti-climax, Mr Nitin Gadkari lost out on a second term after the Income Tax raids on the Purti group, which triggered a re-think on his re-election. What should have been a smooth election process in a disciplined party, the fight for power between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has embarrassingly shown the real state of affairs. Former BJP president and Lok Sabha MP from Ghaziabad, Rajnath Singh, was chosen as a compromise candidate to succeed Mr Gadkari.

The squabbling BJP and the RSS face stupendous challenges. The first in 2013 was the choice of party president. The party failed miserably by projecting a confusing picture till the last minute. The outcome has not been a credit to the BJP which boasts of being a ‘party with a difference’. The president’s election has exposed the extent of factionalism within BJP, which is hoping to gain power in the 2014 election.

If the RSS thought that it could impose Mr Gadkari for a second term, it was mistaken as the BJP leaders, led by veteran leader LK Advani, revolted. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat had to give in following the Income Tax raids on the Purti group of companies on the day of Mr Gadkari’s nomination as the president for a second term. What should have been the RSS’s triumph has turned out to be its declining influence on the BJP when it accepted Mr Rajnath Singh as the second best choice. The BJP and the RSS know that the stakes are high in Uttar Pradesh and Mr Singh’s selection sends a signal that the party is catering to its upper caste constituency. Mr Singh earlier had a successful stint as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister.

There is also confusion in the minds of the BJP workers, the party supporters and the public about the relationship between the RSS and the BJP. The two outfits are struggling to find a balance of power. While the BJP leaders may have had their say in not allowing Mr Gadkari a second term, the RSS too had its way by promoting Mr Singh who narrowly lost the chance to continue last time when the tie was between him and Mr Gadkari.

Mr Singh’s first test will be when the three North-Eastern States — Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura — go to polls. The new president has to ensure that the party does well in the region where it is trying to make inroads.

The stakes are high for the BJP in Karnataka where elections are due in May. The party won the State for the first time in the south and established its Government, led by Lingayat strongman and BS Yeddyurappa. Now, Mr Yeddyurappa has rebelled. He has launched his own outfit and could severely damage the BJP’s chances. The party does not have a tall leader in the State to confront Mr Yeddyurappa’s challenge.

Important States like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Delhi, which go to polls later in the year, also pose a big challenge. The BJP is ruling in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where anti-incumbency could work. It lost the Government just recently in Jharkhand, and in the absence of a local leader of stature, things are bleak in Delhi.

Not the least of the BJP’s many challenges is the choice of the prime ministerial candidate. While Mr Narendra Modi is a strong contender, Mr Rajnath Singh is no less hopeful. He had staked his claim to be the Leader of Opposition when Mr Advani quit. If the party does well in the nine State elections, Mr Singh will certainly take credit and stake his claim. His elevation has also been welcomed by Janata Dal (United) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is opposed to Mr Modi.

As president of the BJP, Mr Singh has to keep the party united and enthused. He must tread carefully while reconstituting his team and take all sections along, instead of behaving like a factional leader. The BJP has to decide whether to go with the hawks or the doves in the party in choosing the way forward.

Interesting times ahead in 2013.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Jan 2013 04:31

Here is what BJP should do state-wise:

1) Conduct 3 independent polls/surveys to assess the priorities for 2014 elections:
(a) A set for its party cadres
(b) A set for public

2) Analyze the results, and build the base and expectations. Shape the policies and align its leaders towards those goals.

3) Also find out the regional alliances, and forge relationship.

4) Cut out the corrupt and criminal leaders. Give tickets to clean (cleaner relatively speaking) leaders.

5) Have a plan to develop their image in the social media and MSM media.

Perform these with its party agenda, ideology and philosophy. Do not compromise on honesty, integrity and service to people. Be a party that INC is not. Provide transparency, stop being dictated by RSS, have clear career and political path for its workers and leaders. Elect the office bearers with elections than consensus of the elite.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Jan 2013 04:34

Yogesh wrote:BJP Drama of president selection

The problem with this article are multiple.
(1) This looks like a paid article because they "a correspondent" with out name and that too from Rediff is something very difficult to even believe
(2) A pure hit job
(3) If it is correct, then the likes of Rudy, Ananthkumar and Rajnath Singh is very very bad for the future of BJP. Each and everyone is anti-Modi at various times. This will again keep Yeddi away and BJP away from Karnataka. Pure and simple dalals with no interest of BJP getting to power. As long as dalalgiri can continue irrespective of party in power these characters has no issue.

But any good/bad or mediocre BJP president will anyway look like a Lilliput the minute the party decides a central role for Modi regarding 2014 election. As long as that is ensured everything else is useless discussion.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 25 Jan 2013 05:32

Muppalla wrote:
Yogesh wrote:BJP Drama of president selection
The problem with this article are multiple.
(1) This looks like a paid article because they "a correspondent" with out name and that too from Rediff is something very difficult to even believe
(2) A pure hit job
(3) If it is correct, then the likes of Rudy, Ananthkumar and Rajnath Singh is very very bad for the future of BJP. Each and everyone is anti-Modi at various times. This will again keep Yeddi away and BJP away from Karnataka. Pure and simple dalals with no interest of BJP getting to power. As long as dalalgiri can continue irrespective of party in power these characters has no issue.

But any good/bad or mediocre BJP president will anyway look like a Lilliput the minute the party decides a central role for Modi regarding 2014 election. As long as that is ensured everything else is useless discussion.

But if the president is dalal enough to stop modi, then they succeed in front of their pay masters.

I for one dont believe that this rajnath fool has the sagacity or graciousness to make for modi (just look at the polls, it is staring on their face, but they just cant digest it). Modi should start putting pressure rightaway to at least be made head of election campaign if not the nominee. and maybe thats what he has done today through ABP and India today.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Jan 2013 06:59

muraliravi wrote:
But if the president is dalal enough to stop modi, then they succeed in front of their pay masters.

I for one dont believe that this rajnath fool has the sagacity or graciousness to make for modi (just look at the polls, it is staring on their face, but they just cant digest it). Modi should start putting pressure right away to at least be made head of election campaign if not the nominee. and maybe thats what he has done today through ABP and India today.

Go to anywhere in the world, democracy or no democracy, you can call them either dalals or in angrezi lobbying interests. Wheels inside wheels is a fact of party politics.

Modi should build a system that makes him rise inside the loops of these dalals. He has to cut deals and wheels with all such sundry folks and also weed out completely useless. Otherwise expecting that he be given a easy rise is impractical. I believe he will rise inspite of all these.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Jan 2013 07:13

NDA will defeat UPA if polls held now, says survey

New Delhi: As India’s parties prepare for state polls ahead of next year’s general election, a survey said the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will defeat the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, which has been facing flak for its failure in checking inflation and corruption, if the polls are held now.

The survey was, however, conducted before recent changes in the leadership of both parties.

The survey, conducted by ABP News-Nielsen in 28 cities among 9,000 people across the country, found that Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who led the BJP back to power for the third time in the recent assembly elections in the state, has emerged as the most favoured candidate for the post of Prime Minister ahead of the Congress’ Rahul Gandhi.

As many as 48% of respondents favoured Modi as Prime Minister, while only 18% wanted Rahul Gandhi to take over the top post, the survey said.

It said 39% of the electorate will vote for the NDA while the Congress-led UPA will get the backing of only 22%.

“Even on the party front, 36% of respondents in the survey are intending to vote for the BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, whereas only 18% will vote for the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress party,” according to a press note released by the surveyors.

However, it said the survey had been conducted before the Congress appointed Rahul Gandhi as vice-president last weekend. Gandhi took over as the number two in the ruling party on 19 January and the BJP elected Rajnath Singh as its new president on 23 January after Nitin Gadkari, who had been accused of financial irregularities in a land deal, stepped down from the top party post and said he wouldn’t stand for re-election.

The Left parties, the survey said, will manage to get only 3% of the votes while others will get 17%.

Experts were divided in the views over the survey’s findings. N. Bhaskara Rao, a psephologist and founding chairman of the Centre for Media Studies, said it was too early to conduct such a survey as the political situation is “volatile”.

“It doesn’t say anything about public perception, which is a bubble,” said Rao. “The scenario being so volatile, it’s not amenable for any research methodology to aggregate the level of voting.”

G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, another psephologist and a political analyst associated with the BJP, said the surveys are an indicator of the likely result.

“The survey is a projection of what is reflected on the urban youth and the way the wind is blowing. It also reflects the disenchantment of urban India. Although it’s not proper to say that this percentage of people will vote for the NDA and the UPA, popular sentiments are against the government,” he said. “The wind against the UPA is strong and has reached a stage from where reversal is not likely.”

Around 49% of those surveyed said they would vote for the BJP on the assumption that Modi will lead the party in the 2014 general election. The survey also found that 57% of respondents feel that the BJP will be more stable if Modi comes to power at the Centre.

As many as 39% of the respondents backed Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate of the ruling party while only 16% favoured Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The Congress returned to power in 2009 winning 204 seats while the BJP got 115.