Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 31 Jan 2013 12:43

JohneeG: who do you think took the decision to ban the movie? Who is continuing to oppose the HC decision in the courts? This is fundamentally a game being played by JJ mostly driven by personal vendetta - but not realizing the long-term consequences of her appeasement of Muslim radicalism.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 31 Jan 2013 13:28

Arjun wrote:JohneeG: who do you think took the decision to ban the movie? Who is continuing to oppose the HC decision in the courts? This is fundamentally a game being played by JJ mostly driven by personal vendetta - but not realizing the long-term consequences of her appeasement of Muslim radicalism.

Otherwise a few petrol bombs would have been thrown, a few protesters Injured dead, and Jayathalalitha Friend as reported by Media 'Modi" would have been dragged in.

Kamal and DMk have been ridding this Tiger which created TMMK, let their agenda come out now for the public to see and become knowledgeable.

Next time there will no public support for a crackdown, otherwise the Army of Human rights activists were waiting.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 31 Jan 2013 13:39

Arjun wrote:JohneeG: who do you think took the decision to ban the movie? Who is continuing to oppose the HC decision in the courts? This is fundamentally a game being played by JJ mostly driven by personal vendetta - but not realizing the long-term consequences of her appeasement of Muslim radicalism.

JJ did nothing special. She did what any other 'secular' politician would do or is doing. The same thing is being done in other states by other politicians. On the other hand, if she had controlled the law and order situation, then it would have been 'communal', and worse 'Hindu terror'.

As far as I understand, HC stayed the screening of the movie. So, who is controlling HC? JJ?

All I can see is abject surrender of state machinery(all wings of state) in various states in front of islamist menace. There is a concerted effort by the islamists all over the region. To me, it is clear as day light. Nobody in the state machinery wants to face this challenge, because no one is ready to undergo the hounding that Modi and his colleagues went through...
Sohrabuddin case: Narendra Modi aide Amit Shah appears before court

For a better perspective, imagine a hindu group protesting against a movie of Kamal Hassan. What would be the reaction of Kamal Hassan(or what WAS the reaction of Kamal Hassan)? Would/Did he even agree to delete the objectionable portions? What was/would be the reaction of Govt.s? What was/would be the reaction of HC/SC? What was/would be the reaction of media? What was/would be the reaction of 'secular' 'progressive' 'celebrities' like SRK, J Akhtar, Bhatt...?

It would be used to malign entire Hinduism and heckle all hindus for atleast an year, if not a decade.

While the islamist menace is unchecked, the media, mainos and mantris are trying to prop up the fake 'Hindu terror' for making an equal equal.

Frequently, people talk about hyphenation of India and Pakis. It seems to me that hyphenation of India and pak evolved from the hyphenation of Hindus and Muslims in brit era. Brits identified muslim league as the representative of muslims and congress as the representative of hindus. Then, they proceeded to hyphenate both muslim league and congress as equal equal. This hyphenation continued after 1947, when muslim league was replaced by paki state and congress was replaced by Indian state.

This is a double whammy for Hindus. Before 1947, congress was not a Hindu party by any stretch of imagination. Congress was a 'secular' party eager to appease the muslims even at the cost of Hindu interests. Similarly, after 1947, Indian state is not a Hindu state by any stretch of imagination. Indian state is a 'secular' state. On the other hand, muslim league and pakistan were out and out muslim entities.

So, one entity is muslim and the other entity is 'secular'(where 'minority' appeasement is celebrated), but has been falsely portrayed as Hindu. The truth is that there is no Hindu entity. Hindu opinions were never taken into consideration before 1947 or after.

Irony is that Hindus are truly the religious minority of the world and need/deserve affirmative action. X-ianity and Islam are not a religious minority at all. They are the dominant religions with huge funding and lots of influence. Further, they are missionary creeds with violent history from the time of their origins.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Jan 2013 13:59

CT alert -- this is a deliberate move by JJ to kill two birds with one stone,
1) Out the Jihadi's in TN
2) Cut into the Kamal Hasan p-sec variety.

IMVHO she did this, very successfully with the Kundakulam agitation as well. Led the followers of religion of love up a garden path and then turned around. Now church is considered anti tech, anti nuke, anti progress and of course anti - Modernity (to great discomfort of self appointed mullahs of modernity)

Hopefully this has the polarizing influence in her favor along with the social engineering that she hopes for.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 31 Jan 2013 14:25

Nitish preparing to leave NDA on Modi issue

Nice if true. Sadly, this telegraf bilge rests in its entireity on an un-named JD(U) 'leader close to Nitish'. IOW< its all BS and planted to muddy (FUDdy?) the waters.

Still, would be nice if JD(U)'s high-handedness ends. It and the INC truly deserve each other.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 31 Jan 2013 15:27

Not sure who is advising Nitish. The Muslim, Yadav, Paswan vote is already with RJD + LJP. It is the UC and non-Yadav OBC vote that is with the JD(U)-BJP. I think this is more personal vendetta rather than any electoral maths.

Yogesh · Post by **Yogesh** » 31 Jan 2013 16:09

Not sure who is advising him, however my feeling is he trying to be holier than thoug.. moreever, the biggest gain in case of split would be to lallu lal (his aprty still commands a sizable chunk, perhpas more than individual %age share by bjp or jdu), unless there is some emtional issue or some kind of wave in one's favor!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Jan 2013 17:10

Supratik wrote:Not sure who is advising Nitish. The Muslim, Yadav, Paswan vote is already with RJD + LJP. It is the UC and non-Yadav OBC vote that is with the JD(U)-BJP. I think this is more personal vendetta rather than any electoral maths.

Yogesh wrote:Not sure who is advising him, however my feeling is he trying to be holier than thoug.. moreever, the biggest gain in case of split would be to lallu lal (his aprty still commands a sizable chunk, perhpas more than individual %age share by bjp or jdu), unless there is some emtional issue or some kind of wave in one's favor!

There is need for new survey. Per a survey about 6 months ago, BJP can win 36% vote on its own. If Nitish goes out and if it is Nitish Vs Laloo Vs BJP then there is a higher chance of BJP winning the state on its own. Irrespective of BJP's win, Nitish will become nanaga in that state if he goes alone.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Jan 2013 17:17

Telangana: Decoding the Congress gameplan in Andhra Pradesh

While it knows it has lost significant ground in Telangana, the party plans to test how well this strategy works to help it regain lost ground in Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra. If it does in the next few months, the Congress could take a position against bifurcation and offer a development package instead. If it does not, it can carve out Telangana closer to elections and ride on that wave to do well in the region.
It is a gamble the Congress is taking, with high chances it may come a cropper in 2014. Having read the writing on the wall, the party is trying to rewrite the script, with new twists to the tale. The risk is that the script could well be its epitaph in Telangana.

In line with the above article the following is a parallel move. (Note the site is unreliable so take it with a pinch of salt)

Sabbam Mediating On Jagan-Cong Pact?

Rebel Congress MP from Anakapalle Sabbam Hari is believed to be negotiating on behalf of the Congress party for a compromise with YSR Congress party headed by Jaganmohan Reddy.

Sabbam met Jagan in the Chanchalguda jail on Thursday and is learnt to have discussed the modalities for an understanding between his party and the Congress, as part of the strategy to scuttle the Telangana statehood process. He is learnt to have carried a message from Rajya Sabha member K V P Ramachandra Rao, advisor to Jagan’s father Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, stating that only an agreement between the Congress and the YSR Congress would be able to stall the state bifurcation.

KVP, it is learnt, had convinced the party high command that he would try for merger of YSR Congress party with the Congress, or at least see that there would be a pre-poll understanding between the two parties, so that the Congress party would retain its hold on the state. He is said to have told the party high command that if there is an understanding with Jagan party, the Congress can retain its 33 Lok Sabha seats. In his view, the TRS is not a big force and it might not win more than three or four seats, while the TDP would get around three seats. It was because of KVP’s intervention that the Congress had deferred the decision on Telangana, say sources.

Now, KVP has begun the negotiation process. He has chosen Sabbam Hari as the mediator, sources said.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 31 Jan 2013 17:39

Sanku wrote:If Modi is PM candidate, BJP WILL get more votes at least in Guj, purely regional sentiments -- is that wrong?

It is not wrong only because Modi has merit as a candidate regardless of his background.
He wil be voted for because of the positive administration he gave. Not the caste, region or party that he belongs to.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 31 Jan 2013 17:42

Sorry if a bit OT but I wonder what the Dalit-Leftist bloc thinks when Buddhist were soundly threatened and beaten up by muslims in direct physical and symbolic violence.
After all Buddhists are considered a part of this bloc (by this bloc at least).

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 31 Jan 2013 17:56

^^^
There was a ruckus recently between Javed Akhtar and Kancha Illaiha at the Jaipur yap-yap. Apparently Javed Akhtar is an Atheist while Kancha stood up for Buddhism. So all fireworks.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 31 Jan 2013 18:08

Ah...Internet jingoism and knee jerking, how well they go together. Nobody gave a clean chit to the Islamists in India or TN, if the rumors are to be believed it is clear that JJ is upset. And she will settle scores. AIadmk and TMMK alliance is key here. One should try to understand what another poster is writing, if necessary seek clarification, not get on to a high horse and start preaching as if one is the only enlightened awake soul in the boards and the country, while others are sleeping.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 31 Jan 2013 18:15

Today Pawar said that who ever gets 170-180 will form the government. According to him Congress will. He will himself not fight next Lok Sabha and maybe Praful Patel can be leader of NCP. He is more credible (even if dishonest to the core) regarding poll than Nielson or anyone.
The task is cut out for BJP. 90% of chance is they are going to loose 2014 (BJP and NDA). Only 10% chance is that they will win. From this hopeless situation they cannot afford many mistakes. God help us all!!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 31 Jan 2013 18:25

On what basis you accept Pawar predictions guruji? No one can be certain for congress win. Even Congress itself will not be very sure as they know all the negatives happend and people are now very angry at them. Pawar as part of INC gang will naturally tell us that they will win and NDA will lose. What is the big deal???

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 31 Jan 2013 19:01

Two things

1. EVM magic
2. Media spinning 24x7 that Congress is on comeback trail and then there won't be any people anger when the Congress wins (pump priming)

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jan 2013 19:11

Arjun wrote:JohneeG: who do you think took the decision to ban the movie? Who is continuing to oppose the HC decision in the courts? This is fundamentally a game being played by JJ mostly driven by personal vendetta - but not realizing the long-term consequences of her appeasement of Muslim radicalism.

Arjun ji

You are not getting the point. If this movie goes for screening and a couple of theaters are set alight by mobs then JJ will be blamed for law-and-order situation.

Please remember one thing - People in power often prefer less communal violence compared people in opposition. The only exception is INC party because they have multiple factions within themselves in states.

Kamalhasan is no more the primary target here.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 31 Jan 2013 19:28

NR ji,
Only because I (with many friends, here at BR and elsewhere) have predicted (with very decent modelling of the data I would say) only to be proven wrong and these guys have been right. It could be EVM or could be that we are missing something big and our collective heads cannot figure that out. I would say the 'Right' side has about 10% hold on the pulse and election (discounting EVM) than Cong and Team has. I would listen to them.
What is going for Congress for 2014 - Kejriwal, Chautala out, direct Cash transfer, JAT consolidation in its favor (impacts 40 seats), Maybe Nitish walking out, Karnataka screwed in its favor, in AP it may not win but its proxies will...stay tuned to sniff out what else they may be doing, if they are doing something, they are doing now!!
rgds,
fanne

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 31 Jan 2013 19:32

RamaY wrote:Arjun ji

You are not getting the point. If this movie goes for screening and a couple of theaters are set alight by mobs then JJ will be blamed for law-and-order situation.

Please remember one thing - People in power often prefer less communal violence compared people in opposition. The only exception is INC party because they have multiple factions within themselves in states.

Kamalhasan is no more the primary target here.

So..? Unless there is a more Chankian motive that some seem to suggest - JJ is just as guilty of appeasement as that mother of appeasers, the INC. Why should she be exempt from blame ?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 31 Jan 2013 19:35

My take just from political angle, Congress may be trying to fish there. If somehow TN comes in UPA fold for 2014, its game over.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Jan 2013 19:35

Virendra wrote:
Sanku wrote:If Modi is PM candidate, BJP WILL get more votes at least in Guj, purely regional sentiments -- is that wrong?
It is not wrong only because Modi has merit as a candidate regardless of his background.
He wil be voted for because of the positive administration he gave. Not the caste, region or party that he belongs to.

He will get votes not only because of merit, but also because the Gujrati's will like to vote for a party which puts a Gujarati in PMs seat. That is how it is all over the country.

There is nothing wrong in this, as long as they not voting a for person despite knowing he is bad because he is from their state.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jan 2013 19:40

Arjun wrote: So..? Unless there is a more Chankian motive that some seem to suggest - JJ is just as guilty of appeasement as that mother of appeasers, the INC. Why should she be exempt from blame ?

We can blame anyone we want, and it is our democratic right.

Are we blaming JJ/MK due to our prejudices or based on the players, dynamics, motives and end objectives? If it is later then we all are doing some kind of truth-searching.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 31 Jan 2013 19:53

RamaY wrote:We can blame anyone we want, and it is our democratic right.

Are we blaming JJ/MK due to our prejudices or based on the players, dynamics, motives and end objectives? If it is later then we all are doing some kind of truth-searching.

No, I am not blaming anybody...the facts have to speak for themselves.

Acceding to demand 'A' from a group because not acceding to demand 'A' will result in violence from that particular group - is pretty much the dictionary definition of appeasement. Appeasement of illiberal forces IS morally wrong - there is no two ways about it. UNLESS it can be explained in terms of a larger good (aka 'Chankian motive' of BRF parlance)..I have seen a few on this forum, but yet to be convinced...possibly need to wait to see how things pan out over a period of time. Lets see.

Yogesh · Post by **Yogesh** » 31 Jan 2013 20:26

Muppalla wrote:
Supratik wrote:Not sure who is advising Nitish. The Muslim, Yadav, Paswan vote is already with RJD + LJP. It is the UC and non-Yadav OBC vote that is with the JD(U)-BJP. I think this is more personal vendetta rather than any electoral maths.

Yogesh wrote:Not sure who is advising him, however my feeling is he trying to be holier than thoug.. moreever, the biggest gain in case of split would be to lallu lal (his aprty still commands a sizable chunk, perhpas more than individual %age share by bjp or jdu), unless there is some emtional issue or some kind of wave in one's favor!
There is need for new survey. Per a survey about 6 months ago, BJP can win 36% vote on its own. If Nitish goes out and if it is Nitish Vs Laloo Vs BJP then there is a higher chance of BJP winning the state on its own. Irrespective of BJP's win, Nitish will become nanaga in that state if he goes alone.

Plausible but not realistic - given the little understanding of social fabric I have of the Vihar

.. Can touch base with people from different district there and will update how things are headed at some point in time!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Jan 2013 20:46

Arjun wrote: No, I am not blaming anybody...the facts have to speak for themselves.

Acceding to demand 'A' from a group because not acceding to demand 'A' will result in violence from that particular group - is pretty much the dictionary definition of appeasement. Appeasement of illiberal forces IS morally wrong - there is no two ways about it. UNLESS it can be explained in terms of a larger good (aka 'Chankian motive' of BRF parlance)..I have seen a few on this forum, but yet to be convinced...possibly need to wait to see how things pan out over a period of time. Lets see.

There are multiple players here

1. Kamal Hasan - He is a self-proclaimed secularist. He tried to appease the TMMK types. Why didnt he stood by his movie and become another MFH (who didn't apologize or take away the paintings)? That means he has no conviction. Why should anyone support him? All he cares about is his money and fame. Not the values that he hides behind. He is stupid of first kind. I would rather have such Dhimmindians taste the cola that they spill on others.

2. TMMK - Are they independent or are they a mere tool in politicians hands? Or can they be both? Why are the against this movie but never protest against AoA chants by their own members when they destroy state property and protest against consulates? In either case there is nothing wrong in making them OVERT enemies of the stupids of first kind explained above.

3. JJ - She is the CM. Everyone knows her political position. Yet KH went ahead and licked PC's feet on the stage in her presence. So she has a right to kick his but - what is the point of her being the CM if every a$$h0le can insult her like that. Is she unhappy for KH canceling his deal with her tv channel and going to MK tv? Could be then she is responding in kind. Is she using TMMK? Could be and it is OK as long as it is exposing idiots of two verities - first and second.

4. DMK - He is the one who is benefiting from all this. Firstly his mafia controls the movie theaters union, against which KH made his first move. Secondly he got the satellite rights of the movie, especially after KH cancelling his deal with JJ. So it is double dhamaka - he benefited and his enemy lost. Third he can claim secularist by publicly sympathizing with KH. Fourthly he can throw a spanner using the same TMMK if needed if JJ tries to go soft on KH for whatever reasons and corner her.

5. Secularists - They are supporting KH only because of his secular credentials. They never supported over Hindus when they were victims of similar issues; example Pavan Kalyan in Andhra with his CMG movie recently.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 31 Jan 2013 20:57

IIRC, the calculation in Bihar is 17% UC, 13% SC, 17% Muslim, rest OBC. JD(U)+ BJP got 37%, RJD + LJP 28%, INC 8%. If we assume 12% of the UC is voting BJP and the rest are all non-Yadav OBCs and that BJP will retain at least the UCs, Nitish has to replace them with LJP (Paswan) and Muslim votes. I think that is an unnecessary gamble specially when you have 3/4th majority. If ideology was the reason why ally with BJP at all. What is the difference between Modi and Advani as far as their ideology is concerned? What may happen is that they will go back to the pre-alliance situation dividing the anti-Laloo vote or may be he is overconfident. It will also depend on whether the Sangh/BJP has been able to build up a strong cadre or they have gone the UP way. Nitish in Bihar and Modi in Delhi is the ideal situation for progress. Someone should talk to him and get him over his obstinacy.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Jan 2013 21:09

Supratik wrote:IIRC, the calculation in Bihar is 17% UC, 13% SC, 17% Muslim, rest OBC. JD(U)+ BJP got 37%, RJD + LJP 28%, INC 8%. If we assume 12% of the UC is voting BJP and the rest are all non-Yadav OBCs and that BJP will retain at least the UCs, Nitish has to replace them with LJP (Paswan) and Muslim votes. I think that is an unnecessary gamble specially when you have 3/4th majority. If ideology was the reason why ally with BJP at all. What is the difference between Modi and Advani as far as their ideology is concerned? What may happen is that they will go back to the pre-alliance situation dividing the anti-Laloo vote or may be he is overconfident. It will also depend on whether the Sangh/BJP has been able to build up a strong cadre or they have gone the UP way. Nitish in Bihar and Modi in Delhi is the ideal situation for progress. Someone should talk to him and get him over his obstinacy.

All obc's except kurmi and yadavs will vote en masse for modi

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 Jan 2013 21:18

Can Modi break into the Yadav vote in Bihar?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 31 Jan 2013 21:19

That will be a good thing to happen but a very optimistic (and maybe false) assumption to make!! - this is for MR comment.
As for RA, I dont think so, the Yadavs in northest Bihar are/have been with BJP. But and a big but, if Laloo remains without power for a longer time, this big block will need a patron and BJP will be foolish to ignore. Historical problem, UC and Yadavs do not have a good chemistry but a Kalyan Singh type setup can do wonders. It will feel the same pressure though, after intial success tha UC lobby would want direct power (like it happen to Kalyan or yedurappa). A more longterm model has to be deloped by BJP.
rgds,
fanne

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 31 Jan 2013 21:28

The yadavs were the first OBCs to take power and no one wants to relinquish power. They will split only when other castes stop supporting them.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Feb 2013 01:48

Telangana - The "negotiations" that went wrong.
http://news.suryaa.com/state/article-120639

సెప్టెంబ ర్‌ 5న జరిగిన చర్చల్లో బిడ్డ, కొడుకు, అల్లుడుకు కాంగ్రెస్‌ లో మంచి పదవులిచ్చి, వెయ్యి కోట్ల ప్యాకేజీ తన కుటుం బానికి ఇస్తే, టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ను కాంగ్రెస్‌లో విలీనం చేస్తానని కేసీఆర్‌ కేంద్రమంత్రులకు షరతు విధించారని గజ్జెల కాంతం ఆరోపించారు. నిజానికి కాంగ్రెస్‌-కేసీఆర్‌ చర్చ ల్లో షరతులు, చర్చల వివరాలను బయటపెట్టాలని టీడ ీపీ, ప్రజాసంఘాల జాక్‌, బీజేపీ అప్పట్లో డిమాండ్‌ చేసినా టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ స్పందించలేదు. కుటుంబసభ్యులకు పదవుల కోసమే కేసీఆర్‌ ఢిల్లీలో కాంగ్రెస్‌ రాయబేరాలు సాగిస్తు న్నారని టీడీపీ నేతలు రేవంత్‌రెడ్డి, దయాకర్‌రావు, అర విందకుమార్‌గౌడ్‌ వంటి నేతలు ఆరోపణలు గుప్పిం చారు. అయితే, దానిపై కేసీఆర్‌ సూటిగా సమాధానం ఇవ్వకుండా కాంగ్రెస్‌ నేతలు నాతో కాకుండా దారినపో యే సన్నాసులతో మాట్లాడతారా? అని నిప్పులు కురిపిం చారు.

చర్చలు సానుకూలంగానే జరిగాయని, తెలంగాణ నెలరోజుల్లో వస్తుందని ఫాంహౌస్‌లో తనను కలసిన పార్టీ నేతలు టీ జాక్‌ నేతలు, ఉద్యమ సంఘాల నాయ కులకు కేసీఆర్‌ స్వయంగా చెప్పారు. తనకు కాంగ్రెస్‌పై నమ్మకం ఉందని, తెలంగాణ ఇచ్చేందుకు సోనియా సానుకూలంగానే ఉందని, వాళ్లు హైదరాబాద్‌ గురించే ఆలోచిస్తున్నారని వారికి తన చర్చల సారాంశాన్ని వారికి వివరించారు. అయితే, కాంగ్రెస్‌ ఒకవైపు టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌తో చర్చిస్తూనే తెలంగాణ తన ద్వారానే వస్తుందన్న సంకేతా లిచ్చేందుకు సిద్ధమవడంతో కేసీఆర్‌ అప్రమత్తమయ్యా రు. తనతో పనిలేకుండానే తెలంగాణ ఇచ్చేస్తున్నారన్న కదలికలు గమనించిన తర్వాతే, ఆయన కాంగ్రెస్‌ అధినే త్రిపై ఎదురుదాడి మొదలుపెట్టినట్లు రాజకీయ వర్గాలు చెబుతున్నాయి. కాంగ్రెస్‌ ఒకవైపు టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌, వైకాపాతో చర్చలు జరుపుతూనే మరోవైపు ఆ పార్టీలను అణచివేసే వ్యూహానికి పదునుపెడుతోందని, కాంగ్రెస్‌ వ్యూహం తెలియ రెండూ అమాయకంగా కాంగ్రెస్‌ ధృతరాష్ట్ర కౌగి లిలో చిక్కుకున్నాయని రాజకీయ విశ్లేషకులు చెబుతున్నా రు.

ఈ నేపథ్యంలోనే తనతో కేసీఆర్‌ జరిపిన రాయబేర వివరాలను కాంగ్రెస్‌ వ్యూహాత్మకంగా లీక్‌ చేసి, దాని నో చర్చనీయాంగా చేసింది. రెండురోజుల క్రితం వరకూ కేసీ ఆర్‌, కాంగ్రెస్‌ చర్చల వివరాల గురించి ఎవరూ ప్రశ్నిం చలేదు. హటాత్తుగా కాంగ్రెస్‌తో కేసీఆర్‌ జరిపిన చర్చల్లో భాగంగా ఒక్క తెలంగాణ కాకుండా, ఇంకేదో షరతులు చర్చకు వచ్చాయన్న భావన జనంలో కల్పించడంలో అటు కాంగ్రెస్‌, ఇటు ప్రజాసంఘాల జేఏసీ విజయవం తమయ్యాయి. కేసీఆర్‌ బేషరతుగా టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ను కాంగ్రెస్‌ లో విలీనంచేస్తే తాను రెండోరోజునే సోనియా వద్దకు వెళ్లి తెలంగాణ ఇప్పిస్తానని సీనియర్‌ ఎంపీ వి.హన్మంతరావు ప్రకటించారు. కేసీఆర్‌ తన పార్టీని కాంగ్రెస్‌లో విలీనం చేస్తారా? అని మధుయాష్కీ ప్రశ్నించారు. దీనిద్వారా కాంగ్రెస్‌లో టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ విలీనం కానందుకే తెలంగాణ ఆల స్యమవుతోందన్న భావన క్షేత్రస్థాయిలో కలిగించడం, దా నిపై ఒత్తిడి పెంచడం, ఈ అంశంపై చర్చలు విస్తృతంగా జరిపేలా చూడటమే కాంగ్రెస్‌ అసలు లక్ష్యమంటున్నారు.

టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ కాంగ్రెస్‌లో విలీనమయ్యే వరకూ తెలంగాణ రాదన్న విషయాన్ని కాంగ్రెస్‌ నేతలు పరోక్షంగా కుండబద్ద లు కొట్టినందున ఇకపై తెలంగాణ కోసం ఉద్యమిస్తున్న సంఘాలు ఆ మేరకు టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌పై ఒత్తిడి పెంచుతాయని అంచనా వేస్తోంది. ప్రజల్లో కూడా ‘టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ విలీనమ యితే తెలంగాణ వస్తుంది కదా? ఎందుకు విలీనం చేయడం లేద’న్న భావన బలపడేలా చూడటం ద్వారా అ న్ని మార్గాల నుంచి టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ నాయకులపై ఒత్తిడి పెంచ డమే కాంగ్రెస్‌ నాయకత్వ అసలు వ్యూహమని రాజకీయ విశ్లేషకులు చెబుతున్నారు. ఇదిలాఉండగా విలీనంపై కాంగ్రెస్‌ నాయకులు టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ను లక్ష్యంగా చేసుకుని విమర్శలు గుప్పిస్తుండటంతో టీఆర్‌ఎస్‌ సీనియర్‌ నేత హరీష్‌రావు రంగంలోకి దిగారు. హైదరాబాద్‌ తో కూడిన తెలంగాణను వారంరోజుల్లోగా తీసుకువస్తా మని కాం గ్రెస్‌ నాయకులు హామీ ఇస్తే విలీన లేఖను నిరభ్యంత రంగా ఇస్తామని ప్రతి సవాల్‌ చేశారు. దీని ద్వారా కాం గ్రెస్‌ నాయకులను హరీష్‌ ఇరకునపెట్టగలిగారు.

Key points

1. KCR demanded "good" positions for him (CM ship of T-state - from another news paper report), his son, daughter and son-in-law (MP seats and/or ministries) and Rs 1000 Crore package for his family. What about Harish Rao, KCR's nephew?

2. KCR thought the negotiations are going fine until he realized that INC is also trying to portray that T-state is coming not because of TRS but because of INC. Once he realized, he went ballistic against congress leadership.

3. Congress is trying to weaken TRS and YSRCP while negotiating with them on one side. The evidence is in pre 2009 strategy of YSR when he split TRS even when they are alliance partner in his 1st administration. Looks like TRS and YSRCP are stuck in Congress's Dhritarashtra embrace.

4. That is why INC leaked the KCR negotiations demands to the papers now. By leaking this information, INC created the feeling that it is TRS that is holding off the negotiations for its selfish reasons.

5. All this information puts the blame in TRS' court. Everyone knows now TRS' merger is the only last stumbling block in T-state formation. Thus the public pressure is on TRS to let go of its selfishness for the larger interests of T-state.

Yat Bhavam Tat Bhavati!

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 01 Feb 2013 02:21

dreams and hopes ...

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Feb 2013 03:01

^^^^ Rama Y garu:
what that means is they have KCR in their kitty and they can do anything with him from mollycodling to jail via cbi. What INC is trying to do is to get Jagan also into mollycodling stuff. The division of state is dependent on how successful they will be with Jagan's party on the otherside. The division Vs financial package game along with other tools (CBI, Jail, blackmail, positions) is being played to get both (Jagan & KCR) of them on board. If TDP rises as it is currently then things will become more interesting and division might be the only option.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 01 Feb 2013 03:24

@Muppala and RamaY

Society elections are being held in rural areas in AP this week and next. As expected, YSRC in Rayalaseema&Nellore, TDP in mid coastal, Congress in Uttar Andhra are doing well. Southern Telangana (RR, Nalgonda, Khammam), TRS is doing poorly whereas TDP and Congress are fine.

TRS is still restricted to it core districts. So Congress may be asking for PRP like merger without conditions.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Feb 2013 03:32

ShyamSP wrote:@Muppala and RamaY

Society elections are being held in rural areas in AP this week and next. As expected, YSRC in Rayalaseema&Nellore, TDP in mid coastal, Congress in Uttar Andhra are doing well. Southern Telangana (RR, Nalgonda, Khammam), TRS is doing poorly whereas TDP and Congress are fine.

TRS is still restricted to it core districts. So Congress may be asking for PRP like merger without conditions.

ShayamSP garu,
We need to collect this data when the results comeout. All the surveys are blocking AP data. Even Nielsen, IT polls did not write details of the surveys. AP data has become a big black box and is being controlled.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 01 Feb 2013 05:07

Pretty accurate description of RNS

How Rajnath Singh rose through the ranks
http://www.rediff.com/news/report/how-r ... 130131.htm

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Feb 2013 06:22

Muppalla wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:@Muppala and RamaY

Society elections are being held in rural areas in AP this week and next. As expected, YSRC in Rayalaseema&Nellore, TDP in mid coastal, Congress in Uttar Andhra are doing well. Southern Telangana (RR, Nalgonda, Khammam), TRS is doing poorly whereas TDP and Congress are fine.

TRS is still restricted to it core districts. So Congress may be asking for PRP like merger without conditions.
ShayamSP garu,
We need to collect this data when the results comeout. All the surveys are blocking AP data. Even Nielsen, IT polls did not write details of the surveys. AP data has become a big black box and is being controlled.

I got some report from Prakasam. CON party is doing every electoral practice they can do to grab these seats. They removed 800 out of 4000 members. They kidnapped members who will vote; They invalidate or pay off candidates to win unopposed. In one place, they disqualified 4 wards completely to be elected unanimously; Then in the rest of 9 wards TDP won 6 and Congress 3. Still, CON party won 7-6 in one society in Prakasam. They even disregarded High court order to stop election in one ward. In spite of all this, TDP was doing better.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Feb 2013 07:08

vijayk wrote: I got some report from Prakasam. CON party is doing every electoral practice they can do to grab these seats. They removed 800 out of 4000 members. They kidnapped members who will vote; They invalidate or pay off candidates to win unopposed. In one place, they disqualified 4 wards completely to be elected unanimously; Then in the rest of 9 wards TDP won 6 and Congress 3. Still, CON party won 7-6 in one society in Prakasam. They even disregarded High court order to stop election in one ward. In spite of all this, TDP was doing better.

Prakasam is big Jagan ka adda. How come he is not in contest? Understandable that these are not representative of the real elections but TDP coming good in Prakasam means a good boost for them.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Feb 2013 07:33

Muppala garu

Check this page... http://eenadu.net/news/newsitem.aspx?item=panel&no=1

Congress won more than half districts. TDP three and YSRCP three.

Congress 561, TDP 361, YSRCP 186, TRS 57

Since this election is mostly about money power, connections and coercion power, I would rate current power (not popularity) ration in Andhra thus

Congress:TDP:YSRCP:TRS
561:361:186:57

This is a key point for upcoming elections.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Feb 2013 07:46

1. It is outrageous to accept that JJ has the right to kick anyone's butt. Just because she is the CM, she cannot continue to seek revenge. India is free, and Kamal or anybody has the right to support P.Chidambaram or anyone. A CM cannot abuse the power of her office, to suppress freedom of expression.

2. JJ wanted the rights, and MuKa received it. Again, JJ cannot abuse the power to harass businesses - which is what movie makers are.

3. If the rumors are true, she is using TMMK. Fanning the Islamic radical is big future trouble. She is being foolish, if the rumors are true.

4. Interestingly, Cho Ramaswamy supports the ban. Being a journalist, and a hard core supporter of Modi, it is fishy. I would not call Cho an appeaser of anyone, he is a journalist (arm-chair critic) plus a strategist for some of the Hindutva minded people. Vehemently anti-DMK.

If it is political and business machinations causing this takleef, the Indian Muslims are being played by the political leaders yet again. It not only radicalizes more muslims, because of their perceived threat to Islam and muslims - which is bad for the country; it causes unnecessary takleef between communities. If this protests and ban are all politically manufactured as many suspect, it is yet again the leaders fuvking the people.

The sooner MuKa and JJ retire from politics, the better for the people.

Befriending JJ is like playing the Russian roulette, you never know what is going to happen. She can be a friend, and then the enemy the next moment.