Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[gpati]

TDP gives shocking death blow
The TDP president Chandrababu Naidu is currently in Vijayawada as part of his ‘Vastunna Mee Kosam’ padayatra and the response so far has been very good

YSRC might be fizzling out. In Vijayawada, one of my classmate was planning to contest on behalf of YSRC in next assembly elections. He joined TDP yesterday and most probably will contest for it.

Brishaspati ji's prediction that AP politics will transform from "Left" to "Right" is somewhat becoming true. Here CBN is depicted as Kirshna which was not the case in previous elections.

[member_20317]

By buffoon I meant poor performers. Otherwise Delhi was a pro-BJP city.

Delhi still is a rock solid bjp city. Bjp karyakartas in bjp are completely disillusioned with D4. With modi, u will see bjp do well in Delhi. Of course, they need to have a good charismatic face as cm, not the elite type, someone rooted.

Re. Delhi:
There is enough to indicate that Delhi carries a strong presense of the Sangh strain.

The Municipal elections do suggest that.

The difficulties are on two fronts. The old people have moved out in droves. These were the diehard BJP walas. They moved out to Gurgaon/Noida/Faridabad. All these places the essentiall became a political minority. The new people who came into Delhi were from all over the catchment areas and from even further. Most of these new populations are now living on rent. The big chunk of Middle city (Old Delhi=Old, Lajpat Nagar etc developed before 90s=middle city, there is no new city since suburbs like GGN/Noida are the new city) is today populated by such people living on rented premises. These people have their votes someplace else and in any case a majority of these come from places which had a somewhat diluted strain of Sangh politics. Now if these guys constitute just 2-5% of the overall population, you can rest assured their swing/attitude will matter.

Last time when I mentioned changing demographics somebody put up the Resettlement colony issue. What actually happened is that those from the old populations who could not afford to move out to the new city got their residence in these Kachha/Lal Dora colonies. These people are still willing to work with Sangh. Also these people came to dominate these colonies so these Kachha colonies are not exactly a Kongi den. Also every single resident of these colonies knows well that there just is not enough space within these colonies for civil works/development and most people are reconciled to that view. So again a jhunjhuna by way of Authorisation of Kachha colonies is not going to hoodwink them. These people know well that no Sarkar my baap can remove 30-40 lac people from these lands and they are very confident of their status. They do want these colonies recognised which I personally believe is a good idea and Sanghis should support this move, but these citizens cannot be made to vote on the basis of this silly idea of authorisation. Nobody is holding his breath for authorisation.

It is the 2-5% swing that Kejriwal is trying to manage. Now that means Sangh has got its task cut out for it. Make the gap bigger then 5%.

Basically Delhi kabhi kisi ki nahi hui. Delhi is the playground of political activity.

[Yagnasri]

One problem with TDP coming back in AP is CBN may not be joining NDA and may try his luck in 3rd front gang of Mulayam etc. Alternative would be to go to Delhi as a powerful central minister leaving state politics to someone else - May be his son (all in the family). He did played big role in 3rd front back then and may now fancy his luck. But 3rd front may have Mulayam as PM candidate with Pawar also dreaming. So lot of 3rd front fighting will be there post 2014 if BJP does not come very near 200.

[Muppalla]

One problem with TDP coming back in AP is CBN may not be joining NDA and may try his luck in 3rd front gang of Mulayam etc. Alternative would be to go to Delhi as a powerful central minister leaving state politics to someone else - May be his son (all in the family). He did played big role in 3rd front back then and may now fancy his luck. But 3rd front may have Mulayam as PM candidate with Pawar also dreaming. So lot of 3rd front fighting will be there post 2014 if BJP does not come very near 200.

The party (INC or BJP) that gets 170 will form next government. Sharad pawar is right and all this third front etc will only come if both parties go below 130.

[Aditya_V]

Sometimes a 3rd mess like 1996-98 is good for people to know that there are no alternatives. As many in 3rd front are indirectly aligned to INC and will require INC support, it is bound to fail in a short time.

[Muppalla]

Sometimes a 3rd mess like 1996-98 is good for people to know that there are no alternatives. As many in 3rd front are indirectly aligned to INC and will require INC support, it is bound to fail in a short time.

INC will not accept a third front with outside support. 2012 is not 1996. They will be part of the government and they may accept a PM like Mulayam in the worst case scenario of both NDA and UPA not getting numbers. That is as good as Congress led government because Mulayam Singh or Manmohan Singh, what difference it will make?

This third front discussion is just a side track by TDP to wait until the result come out. It is not into national politics this time around and it is long way to go even to lead AP. All this TDP will not support NDA and will go with third front are just distractions. Main Stream Media is anxious about the return of NDA and hence they are either asking confirmations or putting false stories.

Nitish is on a back seat due to Modi but he also know his limitations and media is exploiting by putting a false story that he demanded immediate declaration of PM by BJP. They are trying to trigger crisis for NDA.

TDP's rise means real fall of UPA. Rahul did send feelers to TDP even in the past asking him to join UPA. That offer will become stronger in the coming days. Read Magadhblog in the previous page and subsequent post from Devesh. The emotional blackmail stuff has reached new proportions. "We will not create Telangana if non-T areas can ensure 35 seats to INC or at least UPA" is the mantra.

Consistently TDP is saying that it will not join NDA and everytime it talks about Thirdfront, it is keeping the anxious INC followers in good spirits. The real INC establishment will never trust TDP as history tells that TDP is equally responsible for the demise of INC over the past two decades.

[Muppalla]

TDP gives shocking death blow
The TDP president Chandrababu Naidu is currently in Vijayawada as part of his ‘Vastunna Mee Kosam’ padayatra and the response so far has been very good

YSRC might be fizzling out. In Vijayawada, one of my classmate was planning to contest on behalf of YSRC in next assembly elections. He joined TDP yesterday and most probably will contest for it.

Brishaspati ji's prediction that AP politics will transform from "Left" to "Right" is somewhat becoming true. Here CBN is depicted as Kirshna which was not the case in previous elections.

It is a real good show. I have seen all 118 days of images published by Telugu press. CBN is rising for sure.

[Yagnasri]

CBN I hope do raise. But I am worried about the money power of INC and Jagan. The amount of curruption in AP can only compared may be with Maharastra, Punjab,Haryana. Just too much. Being out of power CBN has to face this huge money power. Further the governament employees are against him as he is comparitively strict in administration. INC - particularly YSR create the loot culture in AP which is slowly reduced as much as practically possible by Kiran Kumar Reddy.

One thing for sure - Many people - in fact a lot of people - are really fed up with INC and T agitation. They want peace and look to CBN now. Hope in turn into votes.

[vijayk]

If Naidu is Krishna, who is Arjun?

[RamaY]

Break-up panic: Wary Nitish reaches out to Bhumihars

Patna: While the ‘Modi-for-PM’ chorus is growing louder within the BJP and the NDA, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been busy fortifying his vote banks to counter the BJP if the situation so warrants. Both parties—BJP and JD(U)—have been in a political alliance for the last 17 years in the state and the equations have nosedived ever since the prime minister question started floating in the air. Nitish is also an aspirant for the top job.

His main focus right now is to woo the powerful, upper caste Bhumihar community, the traditional supporter of the BJP, and keep it in good humour by offering key posts to ensure that the JD(U) enjoys support of this landed caste.

[Sanku]

Break-up panic: Wary Nitish reaches out to Bhumihars

Patna: While the ‘Modi-for-PM’ chorus is growing louder within the BJP and the NDA, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been busy fortifying his vote banks to counter the BJP if the situation so warrants. Both parties—BJP and JD(U)—have been in a political alliance for the last 17 years in the state and the equations have nosedived ever since the prime minister question started floating in the air. Nitish is also an aspirant for the top job.

His main focus right now is to woo the powerful, upper caste Bhumihar community, the traditional supporter of the BJP, and keep it in good humour by offering key posts to ensure that the JD(U) enjoys support of this landed caste.

Sops wont help him if break up happens. Bhumihars will desert him. In fact they may take part of JD(U) to BJP/NDA.

[vijayk]

^^ The guy should think about India instead of playing dirty sickular games and visiting Pakis and hoping for Muslim votes. In spite of entire spectrum of CON MAFIA, PAID MEDIA MAFIA, SICKULAR CROOKS, ANTI-NATIONAL CROOKS, FOREIGN CROOKS all ganged up against Modi. Modi had put his focus on people. He is now the most popular leader. Nitish should stop playing games and start focusing on task ahead.

[Sanku]

^^ The guy should think about India instead of playing dirty sickular games and visiting Pakis and hoping for Muslim votes..

Muslims do form a large part of those who voted NDA in Bihar. If it consolidates once more behind say Laloo, the picture in Bihar will not be pretty.

There are no good solutions.

[Supratik]

Muslims do form a large part of those who voted NDA in Bihar.

Where is the data? Most Muslims vote for the RJD, a small portion votes for INC and JD(U)-BJP.

[Sushupti]

^^^ 25-35 % voted to NDA

[Supratik]

^^^ 25-35 % voted to NDA

Source?

[muraliravi]

^^^ 25-35 % voted to NDA

Source?

Exactly, 25-35 is way too high. If u look at laloo + paswan vote share, it did not change much. That itself proves nda did not get much muslim vote.

Guys, lets get it straight nitish knows he does not get muslim vote, he is opposing modi because modi as a pan obc leader has the ability to just destroy jdu and single handedly take bjp to power in bihar.

Muslims never vote for nda/bjp, irrespective of who the leader is, u shd read gvl's survey on bihar and his other write ups, where he backs up with data

[Muppalla]

Break-up panic: Wary Nitish reaches out to Bhumihars

Patna: While the ‘Modi-for-PM’ chorus is growing louder within the BJP and the NDA, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been busy fortifying his vote banks to counter the BJP if the situation so warrants. Both parties—BJP and JD(U)—have been in a political alliance for the last 17 years in the state and the equations have nosedived ever since the prime minister question started floating in the air. Nitish is also an aspirant for the top job.

His main focus right now is to woo the powerful, upper caste Bhumihar community, the traditional supporter of the BJP, and keep it in good humour by offering key posts to ensure that the JD(U) enjoys support of this landed caste.

The artcle does not really tell the facts of his fear. Nitish thinks he is the messiah of Other Backward Classes (BCs other than powerfuls such as Yadavs). The fact of the matter is rise of Modi actually will move a lot of BC to BJP. BJP has the capability to create BC leadership with active support of forward castes such as Bumihars. In otherwords take over JDU+BJP and make it BJP minus the fringe elements such as Nitish Kumar.

Creating purer BJP government and splitting JDU is not something that is not achievable. Nitish by opposing Modi is actually trying to save his turf (secular vicular is all bs). He does have an option, he can support Modi and become a pet dog of BJP or else he can join the ranks of Laloo, Jayaprakash of Loksatta or Arvind kejriwal.

[RoyG]

IMO, Nitish is just playing hard ball to get the possible deal from BJP. He's not stupid enough to let sec-left forces come to power in the state by allying with Congress. Once that happens the entire state gov machinery will be destroyed and he will be thrown into the garbage.

[Sushupti]

^^^ 25-35 % voted to NDA

Source?

i remembered it from the counting day statistics given by yogendra yadava on some news channel. Here some one repeating the same.

According to Yogendra Yadav, in 2005 election, 8% muslim had voted NDA and this election it rose to 26 %.RJD-LJP, combine, still shared, 31%, the largest margin of the minority vote.

http://twocircles.net/2010nov26/facts_d ... ganda.html

[muraliravi]

i remembered it from the counting day statistics given by yogendra yadava on some news channel. Here some one repeating the same.

According to Yogendra Yadav, in 2005 election, 8% muslim had voted NDA and this election it rose to 26 %.RJD-LJP, combine, still shared, 31%, the largest margin of the minority vote.

http://twocircles.net/2010nov26/facts_d ... ganda.html

The twocircles article proves that muslims did not vote for bjp, i am quite sure they did not vote for jd(u) either. Yogendra yadav is not a pollster, he is a joke, no point talking abt him. No analysis can quantify how much which demographic voted for which party, exit polls rarely capture such info well. Best way to look at it is laloo+paswan vote share remained almost same, so if they lost muslim vote to nda, where did they gain? Thats why i dont go by this theory. This is all theory that is put in media to achieve two goals

1. Make bjp/nda feel that muslims also helped them get to power
2. make the non-bjp partner turn against bjp in the name of secularism. the reality is muslims will never vote for any nda cm, pure and simple, they only vote on such lines.

These stats on 8% and 26% are all based on just pure speculation from this fake pollster call y. yadav. he only uses lahori logic. Suhuspati ji, as i said before, real gvl columns in lensonnews.com

[Sushupti]

^^May be you are right. Even if BJP-JDU can win, NK won't like that. Because in this case he won't be as powerful as in the case where his victory is claimed to be based on Non Yadava BC+ Muslims. In cow belt real issue is power sharing between FC and BCs. A BC leader can enjoy the power much more independently when is capturing it with BC+ M rather than BC+FC. This is because FCs have been enjoying power until and they will bargain hard. This why Kalyan Singh failed while Mulayam, Laloo and to an extent NK has been successful.

[Yagnasri]

Kalyan failed for any other reasons and not for what you say. I am not sure NK is just posturing. His cancellation of dinner at the last minutes sometime back is quite insulting to the BJP. NK needs BJP support to defeat Laloo but somehow thinks too much of himselfs. If leaders like Sharad Yadav etc of JD(U) want to be "secular" it is all for good. The will lose in Bihar and out of NDA will be decimated on long term basis in Bihar also in the hands of BJP. We have to understand Laloo is still close to INC in Delhi and without any support at national level it would be very difficult to take on him.

[nawabs]

To the lifeboats

http://newsinsight.net/Tothelifeboats.aspx#page=page-1

Why is every single party in general-election mode except the Congress? For example, there is clamorous demand within the Bharatiya Janata Party to make Narendra Modi the prime minister candidate. Mulayam Singh Yadav has exhorted his partymen to prepare for snap polls post the Budget session of Parliament. J.Jayalalithaa is in high gear. The same holds true for Nitish Kumar, Mamata Bannerjee, the Badals of Punjab, etc. But why is the Congress not similarly energized for the general election?

This writer has a fundamentally different view on the timing of the general election. NewsInsight was the earliest to report on a late-2013 general election, alongside the polls in Delhi and elsewhere. The view from the Rahul Gandhi camp -- the view, at any rate, ascribed to the yuvaraj, which may or may not be his view, assuming that he has any on any subject -- is that the longer the polls are delayed, the worse the Congress’s re-election chances. The seat figures for the party are dropping by the day, and hover now around 85. It is expected to get no more than five seats in Uttar Pradesh, which is coming in the slow grip of a pro-BJP wave, according to Congress insiders, and the party will likely lose Rae Bareli, Sonia Gandhi’s constituency. It was inadvertently mentioned in an earlier despatch that Amethi was going out of the Congress fold.

An early poll, so it was reasoned by Rahul Gandhi’s political advisors -- a jokey lot, led by the failure from Madhya Pradesh, Digvijay Singh, with young dynasts making the train -- would have arrested this falling seat tally of the Congress. The Rahul Gandhi line, articulated with greater force before the Uttar Pradesh debacle, was not accepted by the party elders, led by his mother, Sonia Gandhi. After the Uttar Pradesh defeat, the Rahul team stands further discredited, and Rahul Gandhi’s elevation as the Congress’s vice-president has not animated the party rank and file.

Which is why, when Mulayam Yadav speaks of early polls, and Jayalalithaa and the others seem to be preparing for imminent conflict, this writer is somehow not convinced. Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are both risk-averse. By and large the same incompetent -- and venal and corrupt -- cabinet has run down the affairs of state in two terms of the UPA government. Sonia and Manmohan Singh work on the principle that if something is broke, don’t fix it. When the party leadership knows it will be thrashed in the general election, with the increasing prospect of some UPA leading lights going to jail for corruption, why would it commit hara-kiri by calling for snap polls? A confident political leadership seeks early elections. By that token, UPA-2 should last out its full term. Also know that Manmohan Singh is a limpet for power. If he has his way, he would go on being PM to the last day of his term. Manmohan Singh loves office too much to walk away.

Which explains partly why the Congress seems not to be in election mode. There is another reason, and this may be the key to the riddle. It concerns Rahul Gandhi. The Congress organization is of course adjusting to the new power equation. The old guard which was loyal to Sonia Gandhi, Ahmed Patel, Motilal Vora, the lot, have now commenced to genuflect to Rahul Gandhi. This is to be expected. The Congress is a dynastic party, and only the sycophants prosper. Sometime before his death, Arjun Singh told his close aides that even after lifelong servitude to the Nehru-Gandhis, you could be denied the crumbs. So all the moving and shaking in the Congress with Rahul Gandhi becoming vice-president is par for the course.

But Rahul Gandhi still remains the Congress party’s principal problem. Forget for a moment that he has little capacity for political leadership. Everyone in the party is aware of that. The thing is that Rahul Gandhi himself is not up to leading the Congress to the polls, which somewhat explains the present desultoriness of the party. At a recent national event, a diplomat got to hear, first hand, that the yuvaraj was more interested in golf than in politics. With a leader like Rahul Gandhi, the Congress needs no opposition.

[nawabs]

Modi visit to Kumbh: SP talking like lumpen element

http://news.oneindia.in/2013/02/06/modi ... 44072.html

With the Indian Republic bending to the fringe groups and their threats, the main stream parties are shedding their modicum of restraint and talking like the lumpen elements. The open threat on Narendra Modi's visit by Samajwadi Party leader Ram Asrey Kushwaha is the direct outcome of not being tough with the fringe groups on the law and order issue as it happened in the case of Kamal Haasan, Salman Rushdie or the Valentine Day protests. His statement that the Kumbh Mela is not the place for politics, and no such meetings would be permitted is a challenge to the sants and sadhus, who guide the Indian multitude.

"We advise the BJP that the Kumbh is not a place for politics, if they do so, we will stop them," Kushwaha said today. "Responsibility of law and order lies with us. If due to Modi's visit something happens then we will stop it." His comments amid wide expectations that the VHP will name Narendra Modi as their choice for Prime Minister when he visits the kumbh on Feb 12 to take a holy dip. BJP President Rajnath Singh will be at the Kumbh mela on Wednesday and will be meeting leaders of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad in what is percieved to be a strategy meet for the Sangh Parivar in relation to the upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Rightly so, the BJP hit back at the SP saying that the Kumbh Mela is an open religious event and the SP does not own it. "Kumbh is not owned by the SP. Nobody can stop anyone from coming here. In stopping Narendra Modi from attending the Kumbh, the SP will politicise the issue," Kalraj Mishra of the BJP said. The SP's statement is also aimed at protecting its Muslim vote bank. In fact, its chief Mulayam Singh is fondly called as Mulla Mulayam and the SP is targeting Modi to please Muslims in the largest state with highest population of the minority community. However, the mainstream parties should desist from issuing such threats, especially against the chief ministers.

[Supratik]

The Muslims are 16-17% in Bihar. If we take Yogendra Yadav to be correct 25% comes to about 4% Muslim vote. Out of 37% of NDA vote. I don't understand the Lahori logic of Nitish's gymnastics.

[fanne]

Dhinker captured it aply (For NK) - JAB NASH MANUSH PE CHATA HAI, VIVEK PAHLE MAR JATA HAI. But I believe it is posturing and plain false reporting by media. NK cant be that foolish.
rgds,
fanne

[Sushupti]

It seems on HeadlinesToday Marx Aiyer rooted for Arun Jaitely as PM. Looks like next gen Windbag has already been decided.

[Sanku]

It seems on HeadlinesToday Marx Aiyer rooted for Arun Jaitely as PM. Looks like next gen Windbag has already been decided.

[Supratik]

It seems on HeadlinesToday Marx Aiyer rooted for Arun Jaitely as PM. Looks like next gen Windbag has already been decided.

Jaitley is an alumnus of SRCC. He organized Modi's participation in the event. Since, "I-am-so-intelligent-and-Marxist" Aiyer cannot handle the possibility of Modi becoming PM he would like Jaitley to be the PM. Marxists think they are the most intelligent species on earth and it is the Indians priviledge to let Marxists decide for them.

[member_20317]

This muslim vote thing does not seem reliable. Muslims when they vote they do not do that pro bono. There are elaborate arrangements of representatives and representations. If NK had such representations and some ground levels tactics sessions, then perhaps he could have hoped for some Muslim vote for NDA. But nobody brought that to light.

In fact the 11% figure in Gujarat may actually be more believable. A working relationship in Gujarat is not unthinkable but in UP Bihar areas this is entirely unthinkable. Not because of any special thing for Muslim brotherhood but because the Muslims here see power easy to achieve due to fractured nature of the hindu electorate.

I think NK is also looking for a deal. But the problem is his deal is stuck because RSS is taking his possibly exaggerated demands to NM and using this as a ruse to hold NM back. This kind of negotiating tactic is common.

JMT

[Sanku]

The issue is not whether NK gets 4% votes from Muslims or not (btw 4% is HUGE in Indian politics) -- it is that if the Muslim vote in Bihar consolidates, from being fractured, like it consolidated in UP, that is straight 10% in favor where the consolidation happens.

[ramana]

Sanku, Even in Gujarat BJP did get some % Muslim vote. So its myth to say all the "Muslim" vote will go to INC and others of their ilk. The psecs strategy is to keep the Muslim community hostage (riots happen mostly in INC-Psec states over last sixty years) and under-developed(Stats speak for themselves) in order to get their votes.

[sunnyP]

Excellent speech.

[muraliravi]

It seems on HeadlinesToday Marx Aiyer rooted for Arun Jaitely as PM. Looks like next gen Windbag has already been decided.

Sushupti ji, AJ knows the wind and he knows he is not in contention. He just choose the Namo camp. Media tries to inflate his ego and create issues.

[ashkrishna]

There is persistent rhetoric from the lefties regarding Gujarat's HDI and the malnutrition situation there. What is the actual situation there, any statistics that other BRFites have?

[Muppalla]

It seems on HeadlinesToday Marx Aiyer rooted for Arun Jaitely as PM. Looks like next gen Windbag has already been decided.

Come on brother. AJ is not windbag material. Let us give credit where it is due. During the last elections there was Friends of BJP forum that was architected by AJ which is a forum of getting the urban educated into BJP fold. This is a step up from that front. AJ as PM is media thingy onlee.

[ramana]

Despite Mulayam Singh yadav and other polticians expectations I think the general elections wont happen till the Paki elections are over.

[vijayk]

^^ will the Modi scare and the consolidation of UP votes behind Modi make Mullah yahdav to pull the rug under Sonia's feet?

[Sushupti]

Karnatka Congress has announced that dates even before EC

@KtakaCongress
Tentative election dates 1st phase April 17 & 2nd phase on 24 counting will take place 30.You can see new CM by 1st week of may