Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Feb 2013 10:45

vijayk wrote:^^ will the Modi scare and the consolidation of UP votes behind Modi make Mullah yahdav to pull the rug under Sonia's feet?

mayawati and mulayam support the INC only because of many overt and covert cases against them and their associates.
thats how they are kept in line like unwilling vassals of the sultanate.

NDA should covertly put a time limited "amnesty" offer to those who are prepared to pull the rug at a opportune time. ..like ride with the sultan's cavalry but deftly refuse to join a crucial attack or feed info on the sultan's weak points.

if the arabs/turkics can use such strategy to wean away faithfool all-lies of indic rulers, time to return the compliment.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 07 Feb 2013 11:01

ramana wrote:Sanku, Even in Gujarat BJP did get some % Muslim vote. So its myth to say all the "Muslim" vote will go to INC and others of their ilk. The psecs strategy is to keep the Muslim community hostage (riots happen mostly in INC-Psec states over last sixty years) and under-developed(Stats speak for themselves) in order to get their votes.

Ramana-ji; fully agree with the psec strategy. However Gujarat has roughly Con party vs BJP straight fight, and the numbers are like 51% to 36% vote share. Even here, Con party successfully tried to split votes and hurt BJP in 10 seats at least.

Now lets look at Bihar
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article913292.ece

which pulled off an incredible, winner-take-all four-fifths majority in the recent Bihar election, secured a vote share of only 39 per cent — just a three percentage point improvement over what it polled in October 2005.

Bihar is very delicately poised, last time the Muslim votes was split between Con party and Lalu. What if it does not and the votes go back to Lalu? Lalu won primarily on Muslim+Yadav consolidation.

NK is NOT fighting congress. He is fighting Lalu. And its a close battle.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 Feb 2013 11:05

Singha wrote:
vijayk wrote:^^ will the Modi scare and the consolidation of UP votes behind Modi make Mullah yahdav to pull the rug under Sonia's feet?
mayawati and mulayam support the INC only because of many overt and covert cases against them and their associates.

This is thinking which keeps screwing people. Mayawaiti- Mulayam and INC are an informal alliance with Public being made the Ullu. None can govern but want to keep exchanging anti-incumbency benefits.

BSP-SP have never voted against UPA. Thier alliance should be made public.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 07 Feb 2013 16:42

Sanku wrote: Bihar is very delicately poised, last time the Muslim votes was split between Con party and Lalu. What if it does not and the votes go back to Lalu? Lalu won primarily on Muslim+Yadav consolidation.

NK is NOT fighting congress. He is fighting Lalu. And its a close battle.

So there is a 12% gap between NDA and RJD-LJP. Even if 50% of INC voters are Muslims (4% overall) it still isn't going to help Laloo. The only chance of getting close is if they have is a RJD-LJP-INC tie-up. This still doesn't explain the gymnastics and the claim that it is "delicately poised" with three-fourth majority. What was Nitish expecting - 100% majority to keep him safe.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 07 Feb 2013 17:43

Supratik wrote:
Sanku wrote: Bihar is very delicately poised, last time the Muslim votes was split between Con party and Lalu. What if it does not and the votes go back to Lalu? Lalu won primarily on Muslim+Yadav consolidation.

NK is NOT fighting congress. He is fighting Lalu. And its a close battle.
So there is a 12% gap between NDA and RJD-LJP. Even if 50% of INC voters are Muslims (4% overall) it still isn't going to help Laloo. The only chance of getting close is if they have is a RJD-LJP-INC tie-up. This still doesn't explain the gymnastics and the claim that it is "delicately poised" with three-fourth majority. What was Nitish expecting - 100% majority to keep him safe.

The 12% gap is not evenly distributed. Some place a extra 4% makes a fair difference. Look at 2005 results.

The gap between 2005 and 2010 is just 3%. NK is not mad, you know.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 07 Feb 2013 19:37

Notice J&K in map. True KhanGrass

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Feb 2013 20:49

http://www.firstpost.com/india/suryanel ... 17728.html

Exerting pressure on the Congress leadership in the Suryanelli gang-rape case, the mother of the victim today wrote to UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi wondering how P J Kurien can continue as Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha when the bill on sexual violence against women is about to be considered by the Upper House.

In her letter faxed to Gandhi, with a copy to AICC vice president Rahul Gandhi, the 70-year-old woman expressed anguish over the Congress-led UDF government in Kerala refusing to order further investigation in Kurien’s alleged involvement in the case.

Lets see if our PAID media gives these people the same coverage they gave to Gujarat's Modi attackers.

lakshmikanth · Post by **lakshmikanth** » 07 Feb 2013 22:03

Yindooo terrorist booked, to be executed soon ... preferably right before elections :

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Praveen ... 385137.cms

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 07 Feb 2013 22:52

Sanku wrote:
The 12% gap is not evenly distributed. Some place a extra 4% makes a fair difference. Look at 2005 results.

The gap between 2005 and 2010 is just 3%. NK is not mad, you know.

I don't think he is mad. He hates Modi. The electoral math doesn't suggest huge reverses if Modi becomes PM. Muslims are concentrated in the NE and NW pockets. They are not evenly distributed. I don't have the data right now but I think the BJP did well in these areas due to polarization.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Feb 2013 23:47

Sanku, I think that chart is wrong. We need to go to EC site and download. If I remember correct, in the last election in Bihar, the total percentage is 80% votes polled.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Feb 2013 10:24

vijayk wrote:Lets see if our PAID media gives these people the same coverage they gave to Gujarat's Modi attackers.

I dont think so the the national level media may find this case all interesting. One, this case happened nearly 15 years back. So no more "Live coverage" required. P.J Kurien himself was moved out of the charges as there were no solid evidences against him.

How ever the local vernacular media in Kerala have hooked onto this. Mainly because of the politicians involved, and generally such a news gets good mileage. Another case which is now gaining media importance is the "Ice Cream Parlour scandal". And I dont think media is showing its neutrality or any "devotion to duty" here. It is just for sensationalism. And some media houses any way have a political axe to grind as well.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Feb 2013 12:09

lakshmikanth wrote:Yindooo terrorist booked, to be executed soon ... preferably right before elections :

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Praveen ... 385137.cms

I suggest you look at Praveen Togodia speech again. What he has said is not all in favour of Hindus but conspiracy theories of Muslims to run to INC hands like Guj riots Cops stood idle, Assam 3000 muslims killed including chopping women and babies etc. Even a mass murderer like Hafeez Sayed and ISI even though would have killed never claim that.

He has said this in an INC ruled State and Centre. Look at the way Varun Ghandi was burned on the coals and this guy goes scot free

This guy opposed Modi tooth and nail in Guj assembly elections. Make no mistake this guy is sarkari Hindu fundamentalist, will be very surprised if he has been burned over the coals.

Politics is very complicated with some bad guys being infiltrated with the good.

Mayaben Kodani has got 25 years jail for hate speech during riots and this guy gets none and his speeches are the main rallying cry behind which MInority votes go to the INC. Something is black in the lentils.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 08 Feb 2013 12:18

I agree. Jerks like Togadia should be arrested. But if he is a sarkari fundamentalist...why does the VHP tolerate him - implicating both that organization and the larger Sangh Parivar ?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Feb 2013 12:57

Arjun wrote:I agree. Jerks like Togadia should be arrested. But if he is a sarkari fundamentalist...why does the VHP tolerate him - implicating both that organization and the larger Sangh Parivar ?

Good question, Thats the lacuna in my theory is why they are tolerating a guy who is a clear liability?? May be because he was with them in Ram Janmabhoomi movement and now to question his credentials is not possible for them or they are afraid that sending him out will convey they are fractured or does he have any secrets of the Sangh Parivar leadership.

He is a liability no doubt and his speeches only want people to end the VHP with his fake claims of atrocities done by Hindus, rather than what one expect to play victim hood and justify his organisation existence like other minority leaders.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 08 Feb 2013 15:41

Getting a mole in at this level is very difficult. Too much that can go wrong for the principle.

Togadia mentioned only the facts or kept very near them, but he was taunting, that much is clear.

Chances are the moment Akbarudin opened his mouth. Togadia saw his chance to up the ante at NM. These guys spoke to Kongis and got this done. This way only NM looses. Togadia gets to up his stock with his followers. He need not care for those outside the VHP sphere of influence. Kongis get their stock up with both the Muslims and the Media.

apoorv · Post by **apoorv** » 08 Feb 2013 15:59

Huge turnout for Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan. The caders now seem to be united. She entered Rajasthan at 10 AM and reached Jaipur 200KM away 13 hours and 52 speeches later.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Feb 2013 17:21

ravi_g wrote:Getting a mole in at this level is very difficult. Too much that can go wrong for the principle.

Togadia mentioned only the facts or kept very near them, but he was taunting, that much is clear.

Chances are the moment Akbarudin opened his mouth. Togadia saw his chance to up the ante at NM. These guys spoke to Kongis and got this done. This way only NM looses. Togadia gets to up his stock with his followers. He need not care for those outside the VHP sphere of influence. Kongis get their stock up with both the Muslims and the Media.

Gujarat Police being silent is a Myth and not near facts. Lots of people died in Police Firing and 255 Hindus died in the riots. He was stating myths.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Feb 2013 19:33

India should be proud to have probably the finest CAG Vinod Rai. He is taking the government head on and is standing his ground against attempts to dilute its powers. No doubt, slowly the entire country is moving against queen bee and her drones in office.

Tweet:

7h MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks
CAG Vinod Rai is in a Grand Slam mode.. Slams govt again for favouring Corporates.. & Digvijaya "slams" back saying "he wants to he PM" Haha

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Feb 2013 19:37

apoorv wrote:Huge turnout for Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan. The caders now seem to be united. She entered Rajasthan at 10 AM and reached Jaipur 200KM away 13 hours and 52 speeches later.

good news, no doubt. should make the Dilli billis tiny bit claustrophobic.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 08 Feb 2013 20:10

In short, which states could remain or go NDA in 2014?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 08 Feb 2013 20:26

Supratik wrote:
Sanku wrote:
The 12% gap is not evenly distributed. Some place a extra 4% makes a fair difference. Look at 2005 results.

The gap between 2005 and 2010 is just 3%. NK is not mad, you know.
I don't think he is mad. He hates Modi.

In politics hating some one is sheer madness, you are supposed to like or dislike people based on how they align with your power goals. NM and NK do not have conflicting power goals.

One has to accept the only possible conclusion.

The electoral math doesn't suggest huge reverses if Modi becomes PM. Muslims are concentrated in the NE and NW pockets. They are not evenly distributed. I don't have the data right now but I think the BJP did well in these areas due to polarization.

There will be some reverses, not huge but some, even some reverses can and have changed seat arithmetic, the past polls are testimony

NK, BJP and NDA have to manage the muslims, some of it will be bluster of "We cant accept Modi" in public, while being A ok in private.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 08 Feb 2013 20:43

RajeshA sir,
You can take it from me, Rajasthan will be (would have been anyways) a BJP state (with or without VRS). Out of 25 BJP will get 20 in a heartbeat (except for the formulation that Con is doing regarding JATS, not sure what is, as it has not played out). The other 5 can also be in a kitty with VRS. Rajasthan is one of the original Sangh state (along with MP and Himachal). BJP govt has been there for a long time. Last time BJP would not have/should not have lost except for bungling by VRS (and her Kin and Kith), remember seats were still similar in number with BJP slightly down. A doctored survey also did them in (done by VRS and doctored by close coterie).
With the cong govt being a disaster (with macabre rape charges etc floating around, Rajasthan is no Haryana or Punjab where these transgression by politicians are overlooked, it’s too conservative). Any decent opposition (say if BJP decides to sit out of polling) will be able to win against this. BJP will surely sweep. The fight is not here, for NDA it is in UP/MH/KA and Bihar (if NK) pulls out. AP and TN will have a huge impact though NDA (minus Jaya) has no constituent in the race.
rgds,
fanne

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 08 Feb 2013 21:06

Congress a history-sheeter of misusing constitutional authorities: BJP

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/02/cong ... s-bjp.html

Accusing Congress of misusing constitutional authorities, BJP on Friday said that the UPA Government used them for their political gains and said all those who did not comply with the party were termed as ones working for the Opposition.

“Congress party has been a history-sheeter of misusing constitutional authorities for their own political benefits and using them as a shield to hide their own misdeeds.

Claiming that the UPA Government of standing on “crutches”, BJP also said there could be early polls as this Government could “fall” anytime soon.

Congress party has been targeting constitutional authorities and forcing them to work according to its own needs.

“Since the current CAG did not yield to this Government’s blackmailing, hence he was charged as one working at the behest of BJP,” party vice president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters in New Delhi.

“This is a lame Government. It is on crutches, which are also giving way now. This Government also knows that it can sink anytime. There could be early elections. Whenever polls are held, our party is ready for them,” Naqvi said.

The BJP leader accused the ruling dispensation of misusing the constitutional authorities, be it CVC, CBI or CAG, saying the governors’ office was the first such authority to come under attack when UPA came to power at the Centre in 2004.

CAG Vinod Rai had yesterday rebutted criticism that the official auditor was exceeding its mandate, saying it was treading a “new path in the belief that the final stakeholder is the public at large”. He was delivering a lecture at the Harvard Kennedy School in Massachusetts.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 08 Feb 2013 21:37

fanne ji,

thanks for the insights!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Feb 2013 22:08

RajeshA wrote:In short, which states could remain or go NDA in 2014?

TN could go with Modi. JJ has a soft corner for Modi; and her adviser Cho (though he will never acknowledge thus) has a bigger soft corner for Modi. However, JJ being JJ, nothing concrete can be said about her.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 08 Feb 2013 22:39

RajeshA wrote:In short, which states could remain or go NDA in 2014?

Mamata is most likely out. Here is the break-up in WB. Muslims 26-27%. Hindus - 72-73%. Left - 40%, TMC+INC - 48% in 2011.
30% Muslims voted for Mamata i.e. about 8%, if 4-5% Muslims voted INC, Left still has the bulk i.e. 12-13% of the total. If the 8% move to Left she will loose specially if she doesn't have alliance with INC. The Left always had the minority of the Hindu vote and majority of Muslim vote (they gave them a lot of land and settled illegals plus no communal violence). The Sachar committee report did them in with a substantial chunk of the Muslim vote moving to Mamata. Singur and Nandigram added to it plus a small portion of the Hindu vote also moved to Mamata. Hence, we see Mamata doing namaz in all posters and giving stipend to Imams plus banning Rushdie, etc. Unless there is further erosion of the Left supporting Hindu vote things will remain like this.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 08 Feb 2013 23:46

Sanku wrote:
NK is NOT fighting congress. He is fighting Lalu. And its a close battle.

Thats a fair assessment of Bihar. and what Nitish is doing. But Lallu is not going to come as Biharis are fedup of him. If NK does not goof up JDU and BJP combine would get muslim votes as well. Afterall they also aspire of rbetter life and development and not only riot which were norms during Congis/ Lallu raj with Criminals Yadavas ruling the roost. Prabhash Kshetra is needed there.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 08 Feb 2013 23:51

And NK is not going anywhere despite what Congis are hopig for. BJP equally has earned name due to good work by its FM Sushil Modi who prefers to remain in the background and is a very hard worker and honest as well.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 09 Feb 2013 03:12

fanne wrote:RajeshA sir,
You can take it from me, Rajasthan will be (would have been anyways) a BJP state (with or without VRS). Out of 25 BJP will get 20 in a heartbeat (except for the formulation that Con is doing regarding JATS, not sure what is, as it has not played out). The other 5 can also be in a kitty with VRS. Rajasthan is one of the original Sangh state (along with MP and Himachal). BJP govt has been there for a long time. Last time BJP would not have/should not have lost except for bungling by VRS (and her Kin and Kith), remember seats were still similar in number with BJP slightly down. A doctored survey also did them in (done by VRS and doctored by close coterie).
With the cong govt being a disaster (with macabre rape charges etc floating around, Rajasthan is no Haryana or Punjab where these transgression by politicians are overlooked, it’s too conservative). Any decent opposition (say if BJP decides to sit out of polling) will be able to win against this. BJP will surely sweep. The fight is not here, for NDA it is in UP/MH/KA and Bihar (if NK) pulls out. AP and TN will have a huge impact though NDA (minus Jaya) has no constituent in the race.
rgds,
fanne

Fanne ji, Conrace has affinity to power but is that by itself a bad addiction? Is affinity to power not a basic virtue of democracy or is it a tool in ideal way? This idea of not overlooking transgressions etc should be adapted to all states in case a strong opposition needs to be stronger even, especially in more populated states that have more impact on overall rajaniti in India.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Feb 2013 03:27

Best case list of NDA states in LS polls - GJ (20-22 of 26 seats, say), MP, CT, Rajasthan (12 of 15 seats easily), Delhi (4-5 of 7 seats is doable), UKD+HP (4-5 of 8 seats, possibly), JHK (half the seats, best case), MH (15 of 48 seats + another 12 from SS+MNS), KA (10-12 seats if they're lucky), AP (2 seats, best case), UP (between 10-35 seats, anything is possible), Bihar (20-25 of 40 seats), WB (1 seat - Darjeeling), Asom (4-5 seats at least), Punjab (half the seats with Akalis is doable easily), Jammu (1 seat odd), Kerala - 0, Goa - 1-2 seats, Odisha (2-3 seats), TN - 0, rest of NE - 1 seat odd, maybe ....

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Feb 2013 03:35

^ Total 274?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Feb 2013 07:08

http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... -poll.html

There was also an NDTV survey reflecting the same 35% vote for bjp in bihar with modi as mascot.

I am still trying to paste my tweet with gvl here, he said that the survey was done in both rural and urban areas and sample was randomized well enuf to match demographics

We are wasting our time discussing what will happen in bihar if nk leaves nda. Nothing will happen, bjp will win on its own and a split section of jdu will merge with bjp.

I see the challenge for bjp in maharashtra. Shiv sena is a pure dalal party, i doubt if they will agree to a bjp+ss+mns+rpi alliance. but maybe they can who knows, dont know if they will agree to modi

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 09 Feb 2013 07:25

^^^
Optimistic me expects that if NaMo declared as PM candidate in October (he will be in prominent role from this April) then the Bihar government will fall with the replacement of a BJP government during November/December timeframe.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 09 Feb 2013 07:27

RamaY wrote:^ Total 274?

No way sir. you have take all the max(HS). 35 in UP is non-starter. I will throw a party if they get 15 seats in UP

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Feb 2013 07:44

I have faith in Aam Admi who gave 420+ seats to Ragiv Gandhi. They will give 274 to Modi.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 09 Feb 2013 07:47

Muppalla wrote:^^^
Optimistic me expects that if NaMo declared as PM candidate in October (he will be in prominent role from this April) then the Bihar government will fall with the replacement of a BJP government during November/December timeframe.

WHo will take BJP's place ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 09 Feb 2013 07:54

^^
BJP needs to make one of its OBC leaders as CM candidate and a split faction (about 30) of JDU along with 96 members of BJP can form the government. This is something that can happen (not that it is a high chance). Restructure of politics of Bihar will be a sure thingy if Modi is declared as PM especially when NK has taken such an extreme position.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Feb 2013 09:10

RamaY garu, 274 yela ayindi?? best case lo 200 minus is all i can see...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Feb 2013 09:23

Hari Seldon wrote:RamaY garu, 274 yela ayindi?? best case lo 200 minus is all i can see...

Rajasthan has 25 seats, you may want to correct that. All said and done, with modi bjp can hope for 185 as best case scene, unless up throws up a surprise.