Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Muppalla]

The reason for asking is that because of the rumor that he is one of the advisor/whatever to Rahul G in UP. I don't know if that is true.

[Atri]

The reason for asking is that because of the rumor that he is one of the advisor/whatever to Rahul G in UP. I don't know if that is true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaresh_Misra

http://www.milligazette.com/dailyupdate ... roject.htm

this is Amaresh misra for all those who do not know this guy..

[disha]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaresh_Misra

http://www.milligazette.com/dailyupdate ... roject.htm

this is Amaresh misra for all those who do not know this guy..

So now we have two gali-galoch guys identified in CongI,

Amaresh Mishra
Mani Shankar Aiyar.

And MSM is giving them airway. Shows how low this guys go to keep the first parivar in power.

[Muppalla]

^^^
I have no idea how he survives on digital world. Folks are arrested for even lesser evils than that.

[Pranav]

Without such rigour it becomes little better than the diatribes of Arundhati Roy or some EJ poodle, shrieking about how evil some folks are because they happen to have been born in some section of society or the other. It is usually a narrative of hatred or grievance-mongering, often both.

Am not saying any poster here deliberately wants to spread divisiveness but casteist generalizations based on anecdotes do tend to have that effect.

[ashashi]

This is a dated survey of AP so not so reliable. However, this is inline with the way things are shaping up.

Anonymous survey says TDP likely to come to power

Hyderabad, Dec 1: A survey by an anonymous source says that the TDP is emerging stronger and the ruling Congress would be relegated to the fourth place. YSRCP and TRS occupy second and third positions.


A SMS has reached almost all the politicians and journalists stating that TDP will be leading if Assembly elections are conducted now.


According to the survey conducted between November 1 and 10, TDP with 124 seats has emerged as the single largest party, followed by the YSRCP with 79 seats. Though the TRS chief Chandrasekhara Rao has been boasting of getting 100 Assembly seats, the survey says his party would get only 42 seats.
...

This survey result was sent from sender “BT 664123”. Who has conducted this survey and at whose behest is unknown. Almost all the MLAs, MPs and journalists received this message.

Who is BT 664123 ?.

[member_20292]

There was a recent article by M J Akbar which said that the poll results in UP (SP won decisively, BSP lost emphatically) points to the fact that voters now tend to vote in a much more binary manner than earlier. Thus, if they are rejecting the UPA, then NDA should come to power in a canter...if that theory is true.

Otherwise, the expectation at this stage is that the UPA and NDA will end up with roughly similar number of seats, with the NDA marginally ahead. And it will be left to the smaller regional satraps to get (in all probability) the NDA to power again.

[Yagnasri]

Having stayed in Karnataka for a long time and during the raise of Yaddi, I have no doubt that he has a very very big role for the raise of BJP in the state. But at the same time he is also very very difficult man to work with. Very short temper and even mis treat people who are very close to him and who like him personally. There is even talk of him killing his wife and Ms Karanraj also said to be resposible for the fall of Yaddi due to his "closeness" of yaddi to Ms Karanraj. Yaddi is a very difficult man to change. Karnataka BJP may do reasonable in Parliament elections even now because of the local voting pattrens.

By the way Anantha Kumar is not some Raj Sabha politico. He won 5 times to Loksabha from Bangalore city. Yaddi may be big man but to call a 5 time loksabha member as person with out a popular base is wrong.

[johneeG]

I don't know which of the choicest refined stuff induces megalomaniacal visions ( of claiming to represent all of TN and speaking for it) . Boy does it work well or what!
BTW, just called up the producers of my B$hit-o-meter to re-calibrate and add two brand spanking new levels - "Surprised youtube cat level" and "Get-the-faq-outta-here"


NM and JJ have been allies in the political space from some time now. Not new! If the people of TN were so apprehensive of NM, they should not have voted her into power in 2011 as she is guilty by association. Would JJ go out and be seen on the same dais as NM if this were a serious issue with the TN populace.

It takes imagination and b$ to come up with weird stories....but my B$hit-o-meter never lies! . let that be known!

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I think Modi becoming PM is more easy than many people think. The critical point is the Modi enjoys the support of business networks(particularly the big sharks). As far as I know, Tata endorsed him for PM-ship. Ambanis are gujjus anyway. And if push comes to shove, SP can be made to support through chota bhai. Jaya supports Modi. Most of the NDA has kept quiet(except Nitis), which means they are fine with Modi candidature.

Apart from all these calculations, Modi enjoys real public support. Not just in Guj, but across India. This can really make a 20-seat(or even more) impact for BJP. That means, BJP can win additional 20 seat, if Modi is the PM. Many non-BJP voters are enthusiastic about Modi for PM.

Finally, even the videsi players like UK and US seem to be fine with Modi for PM.

In short, Modi has more chances of winning than many of his supporters and opposers think.

There are two parties: JDU and TDP that are going pawki by the day. The seculars would be hoping that these two play the spoilsport.

Link to original post

No, I am not following election thread.

My comment on JDU and TDP was not about vote shares, but post-electoral alliance. Even if NDA is in a position to form the Govt with the help of JDU and TDP, the seculars would be hoping that these two parties will play spoilsport and try for a third-front(backed by the kongis).

My observation on TDP going pawki is not based solely on TDP not supporting Modi's candidature before elections, it is just a case in point. Both TDP and JDU are going pawki, in general. Nitis visited pakiland recently. He is taking his secularism seriously, or thats the pretense from his side.

TDP is simply becoming a shadow of kongis in all aspects of policy. There is almost no difference in policy matters between kongis and TDP. Reservations, cash transfer, secularism, caste-politics, Telangana, whatever other issue you name it. One cannot see any clear policy difference between TDP and Kongis. It is very much like BJP at centre. CBN has transformed TDP into a kongi b-team. The only difference he can cite is the degree of corruption and nepotism, all other policies are same same. TDP initiate a program, kongis follow it. Kongis start a program, TDP apes it. Both are competing for the same space. In true sense, they have become ideologically similar. So, TDP has lost its anti-kongi point.

CBN's worst mistake is ditching 'Telugu Pride' point. He is not even able to counter Jagan's brazen EJ games. He cannot even talk about it openly. BJP is secondary in AP. But, TDP is unable to take a stand against the rampant corrupt EJism in AP. If the major party cannot even raise this issue in the fear of losing few minority votes(which are anyway suspect), what is the use of this party.

Even on T, CBN has no real stand. His stand is same as Kongis. And this, from a party that is named Telugu Desam. Oh, the irony! If CBN supports T, then he should say so, and prepare for the affects. If CBN wants united AP, then he should say so and prepare for the results. Instead, neither here nor there nonsense and trying to fool both sides does not cut it. If he does not want to play this T game setup by Kongis, then he should say so. But, what CBN is doing is aping the Kongis trick for trick. It is not a question of whether you lose some seats or votes. The real point is whether people lose trust in your leadership and party policy. If TDP is true to its founding principle, then it should have stuck with united AP stance and defended that stance as robustly as possible. Any temporary setback in 2009, would have been corrected by 2013. I can understand the initial reaction, but after some time, a clear policy for/against/we-are-not-going-to-play-this-game T should have been articulated. It was not done and there really is no policy on T except mere politicking.

BTW, politicking on important issue regardless of the inconvenience to ordinary people is a hallmark of the kongis. The least one can do is be transparent about one's policy(specially in important matters) instead of playing political games.

The real problem is that CBN has leadership issues. He is unable to lead properly and comes across as very defensive and overtly cautious(which makes him resort to opportunism). It is this defensiveness and opportunism that was exploited by YSR. CBN's leadership is similar to captaincy of Dhoni...he is waiting for things to fall in the right place for him, instead of being pro-active. The same problem exists with BJP at center.

Modi provided a backdoor to CBN by inviting Balakrishna. Balakrishna could have attended Modi's swearing ceremony and TDP could still posture it as a private invitation. CBN did not take it and displayed his insecurity. CBN is unable to defend allying with BJP, and this is a failure. Whether he wants to ally with BJP or not is irrelevant. The position must be that TDP will ally with any anti-kongi force at center, zimple. Just take a look at KCR! KCR has jumped from NDA to UPA(and may jump back to NDA), has he been afraid? Nope, he defends himself brazenly. If KCR can defend his position, why can't CBN? To me this is a leadership failure which has muddled the party policies making it a clone of its opponent.

Given CBN's general trajectory, I think he would be hesitant to make any post-poll alliance with BJP(under Modi) even if they are in a position to form Govt. I think Ramoji Rao will play pivotal role in this relationship...

The success of Kongis is mostly due to the failure of their opponents. Their opponents' greatest failure is aping the policies of Kongis. The biggest changes in the Indian political landscape have come when the Kongi policies were questioned and invalidated. Modi's success and CBN's failure is in this framework.

Link to original post

CBN's son Lokesh is trying to follow Akhilesh Yadav of UP. He wants to start Islamic banking in AP, if he comes to power.

Time to destroy TDP.

Seems like he is ready to start Islamic banking

Congress copied his Cash Transfer Scheme. Maybe he wants Congress to do the same with this idea.

Not yet regarding TDP destruction. If TDP succeeds in wooing Muslims, it will be very very good. Things on the ground are really working that way. I am amazed to see CBN spending in so many villages of Krishna and Guntur districts. There is something to that. I think TDP will get the required strength to take on Jagan.

and after that, TDP will become Jagan...

we have one set of Abrahamics already growing in power everyday. now, TDP wants to empower the other set also.

I am jumping with joy.

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TDP wants MIM back as ally

Party welcomes decision to withdraw support to Congress

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has welcomed the decision of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) party to withdraw its support to the Congress governments in the State and at the Centre.

It was for the Governor to decide whether the government was in minority or not now and in case he was convinced that it was in minority, he should direct the government to seek a vote of confidence, senior leader of TDP Gali Muddukrishnama Naidu said here on Monday.

Asked whether they would move no-confidence motion against the government, he said there was no Assembly session around and they had no numbers to bring down the government. He complimented the MIM for taking .the right decision.

“We want MIM back as our ally as it was during TDP rule the old city was developed, but it is for the MIM to take a decision,” Mr. Naidu said explaining that the TDP had supported NDA government only to enable non-Congress rule at the Centre. They had severed ties with BJP in 2004 after realising the mistake, he noted.

When contacted, another senior leader of TDP Yanamala Ramakrishnudu said they were watching the developments and would discuss the political situation at the party’s meeting scheduled at Shankarpally in Ranga Reddy district on November 17.

Link

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MIM wooing congress, abstains from confidence vote ?

It appears as if Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy succeeded in taming the local Muslim leaders, the Owaisi brothers. MIM chief and MP Asaduddin Owaisi and his brother and MLA Akbaruddin Owaisi who are both known for their communally spicy speeches.

The Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy silently allowed the law to take its course in the case of both the Owaisi brothers who were booked for their hate speech and high handed acts against government officials . Result is Akbar found himself in a rescue-less situation. He had to ultimately plead about his ill health and come out on bail.

Fact is that the Owaisi brothers consulted party seniors and religious heads and were advised that it would be better for them to maintain good relations with the Congress. Congress is the only secular alternative for the BJP, the only other party capable of coming into power at the centre.

In a situation where MIM has to choose between the Congress or the BJP, the party has no option other than choosing Congress. So, by not supporting the no-trust move, the MIM hopes to regain the friendship of the Congress or may join hands with the TDP.

The high court also seriously reprimanded Akbar and even questioned him if he could kill all the Hindus if police force was withdrawn. The court told the younger Owaisi that coming from a political family he should have known what to speak and what not.

This unprecedented situation threw a scare in the brothers who thought it would be good if they maintained cordial relationship with the Congress, instead of rubbing it on the wrong side. This appears to be the reason why the brothers decided that they should not support the no-confidence motion moved by the TRS. They took the pretext that the BJP and the TRS moved it for their own political end. Asad said their stand on Telangana was different from that of the TRS and hence they were not supporting the motion.

The stand taken by the MIM came as a shock to the YSR Congress. which has been banking heavily on Jagan-Assad friendship and MIM’s strained relation with the Kiran govt to its advantage.

Link

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MIM says Motion is ‘futile’, abstains

Hyderabad: MIM president Asaduddin Owaisi on Friday said his party stayed away from the TRS-YSR Congress backed No-Confidence Motion in the Assembly since it was an exercise in futility and the parties lacked the requisite strength to bring down the Kiran Kumar Reddy government.

“MIM is with the spirit of the motion, but the motion is an exercise in futility because it doesn’t reflect the strength and responsibility of the political parties,” he said.

In fact, the political parties that brought in the Motion were playing into the hands of the government by enabling it to claim falsely that it represents the mood of the people, he said. He asserted that the Kiran Kumar Reddy government has to go and there is no change in the MIM stand against it in the state and the UPA at the Centre, since his party severed ties with the Congress last November.

He called it a lame duck government that would be brought down by the people in the 2014 general election. But the present No-Confidence Motion would only help the BJP and its political agenda of making Narendra Modi the prime minister.

Mr Owaisi said the MIM cannot stand with a communal party like the BJP in the No-Confidence Motion and expressed surprise at the YSR Congress doing so.

Analysing the Motion, he said the TD did not bring in the No-Confidence Motion because it believes that “if the government is brought down now, it will not help them (TD) politically. They feel that their position is improving and they can become relevant after 12 months.”

He said the TRS moved the Motion because it has a single point agenda of creation of Telangana. But it must understand that Telangana cannot be given by the state Assembly. but by the Union Government.

“A No-Confidence Motion should have been brought in the Lok Sabha. The BJP would have backed them,” he said. The YSRC backed the No-Confidence Motion because its leaders feel the time is right for them and they will gain politically from the present crisis.

“We feel that if a Motion is brought, it has to be brought in such a way that this government falls,” Mr Owaisi said.

He explained that the rules of parliament are clear that if a no-confidence motion fails, no such motion can be moved again in the next six months.

The no-confidence motion will only help the BJP to get the maximum seats from Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. "Anyone who gets 30 seats in Andhra Pradesh and 25 to 30 in

Uttar Pradesh will form the next government at the Centre. The BJP plans to ensure 30 seats in UP and 30 seats in Andhra Pradesh," Mr Owaisi said. Citing media reports, he said Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi planned to address a public meeting in Hyderabad jointly with the TRS. "We should be wary about it."

"This is the first time in the history of the Andhra Pradesh Assembly that the main opposition party did not give notice on the no-confidence motion and the parties that gave notice lacked strength," he remarked.

"The Kiran Kumar Reddy government has failed on various fronts and has adopted an anti-people stance, burdened the common man with hikes in bus fares, and power tariffs to the tune of Rs 15,000 crore, and proposes to impose another Rs 12,271 crore in 2013-2014. It has hiked VAT, motor vehicle tax, failed on the law and order front and failed to make Hyderabad a peaceful city," he charged.

Referring to the gruesome bomb blasts at Dilsukhnagar, which killed 17 people and injured many others, he said, "It's very worrisome that despite three specific alerts, the government did not take notice, according to media reports."

He criticised the habit of picking on innocent Muslim men when bomb blasts occur. "The same Muslim youth exonerated in the Mecca Masjid blast and Lumbini Park blast, and given good character certificates by this government, and Rs 3 lakh in compensation, were picked up by the police again. Only the modus operandi has changed: the boys were picked up in the morning, tortured in the afternoon, and let off in the evening," he said.

Link

OK some good news!

As part of the non-confidence motion against INc's KKR govt, MIM absconded the voting. The reason given was they did not like YSRCP, TRS joined BJP in the process.

And Owaisi guys says BJP is aiming 30 seats in AP as part NM's plan to become PM of India.

YRSC is trying to negotiate a deal of Gajan coming out of jail. Both YRSC and TRS are afraid that the 'sentiment wave' created by them through media propaganda blitz is faltering. MIM is in negotiations with YRSC and Kongis. YRSC is in negotiations with Kongis, MIM and TRS. The Kongis at centre have firm grip on TRS, YRSC and MIM. There are court cases on Ovaisie Jr. and Gajan... YRSC has already made it clear that they will not support 'communal BJP' at centre. Now, the final dhamaka is TDP seems to be trying to woo MIM( which explains why TDP did not go all out to condemn the anti-Hindu speech of Ovaisie jr). This kind of wooing from TDP coming just a few days after the anti-Hindu rant by ovaisie jr. is really the final straw. That anti-hindu rant is still fresh in the minds of people. And yet, TDP is trying to woo the MIM, at the same time distancing itself from BJP in the name of 'secularism'. This in itself tells everything that one needs to know about the state of TDP leadership. TDP is now compromised. Perhaps, there is a need for someone to repeat what CBN did to NTR. Otherwise, CBN(and his son, who is being groomed as his successor) is going the route of Mullah Yadav(and his son).

It is really time for an alternate party(a party with difference) to rise in the state.

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Now, MIM is courting(or is being courted by) all the parties in AP(TDP, Kongis, TRS, & YRSC). Just a reminder of MIM's activities in the recent past:

Islamists are raising the decibel levels. They want to be noticed. They are getting assertive and aggressive. The state machinery(including the vaunted judisiary) is abjectly surrendering to this menace. And this phenomenon is not limited to one state. This is happening all over the region(south-asia?). One just needs to open the eyes and see.


- In Hyd, Apr, 2012(Ram Navami), tensions in old city.
Wiki:

In April 2012, Owaisi made derogatory and demeaning comments against Hindu god Rama and his mother Kaushalya. Owaisi asked "Where all did Ram’s mother go wandering and where did she give birth to him".[3] This was met with loud cheers from the audience.[3]

- Threats are issued to north-eastern Indians in other states like Maharashtra(Mumbai & Pune), Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka(Bangalore), AP(Hyd). There are even incidents of violence.

Wiki:

On August 8 and 9, some Manipuris were attacked in Pune. Students and professionals were beaten up by Muslims in Pune's Kondhwa and Poona College areas.[33] Attackers asked victims which state they belonged to, and those who replied Manipur [North East India] were beaten.

- It triggers a fearful exodus of people of north-east from Bangalore, Hyd, Mumbai, Chennai ...etc.

Wiki:

30,000 people from North East India have fled Bangalore after attacks[53] and threats of more attacks to come after Ramzan (Ramadan). Shiyeto from Nagaland, resident of Bangalore, was attacked by a group of people who threatened to kill him if he did not leave the city before Ramzan which is on August 20.

- In Sep, 2012, Ganesh festival arrives. And as usual, it means muslims desecrate the holy idols of Lord Ganesha at various places in India. Such incidents were reported from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.

-In Bangladesh, 25,000 muslims torch atleast 10 buddhist temples and several homes in sep, 2012. Link


- In Hyd,
Wiki:

In September 2012, Owaisi said that he will not tolerate if the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India are sent back to Bangladesh.[17]

- UP is rocked by riot after riot. Dushshera, oct, 2012.
Riot after riot: UP under Akhilesh takes a dangerous turn
UP under Akhilesh was on a short communal fuse this Dussehra

- In Hyd, oct, 2012, Bakrid triggers tensions due to illegal cow slaughter. Police try to enforce the law, but face stiff opposition.There are several rumour floating around and several low-scale communal skirmishes(and assaults on small temples) that are not reported by the media. The riots seem imminent. Link

- In Hyd, nov, 2012, Tension prevails in Hyderabad Old City

Violence erupted in Old City here on Friday as namajis coming out of Mecca masjid after completion of noon prayers clashed with police, burnt vehicles and attacked property in lanes and bylanes.

Mobs torched four cars and four motorcycles even as policemen in riot gear chased them in different directions from Charminar and lobbed teargas shells. A policeman sustained injuries, while some youths were caught hurling stones.

As news about violence spread, tension gripped the entire Old City, which had been witnessing frequent communal incidents beginning with burglary in the Lal Darwaza temple a month ago. Filing out of the mosque, slogan-shouting crowds surged towards the Bhagya Laxmi temple, which abuts Charminar. Alleged expansion plans of the temple had become a bone of contention between two communities.

In November 2012, Owaisi spoke in Hyderabad, referring to the police force of Andhra Pradesh using the derogatory phrase "army of impotent people". He then incited the audience by challenging the Chief Minister to remove the police and then see who has more power. He further added that they (Hindus or the police force) do not have the courage to fight Muslims.[3] Owaisi claimed in another speech that "lakhs (hundreds of thousands) of Muslims were killed after Indian independence.[3]

- In Dec 2012, Akbarruddin continues with hate-speeches. One such speech in Nirmal, Adilabad goes viral on youtube and triggers (non-violent)protests from the Hindus.
Wiki:

On December 24, 2012, Owaisi addressed a rally of twenty to twenty-five thousand people in the Nirmal town of Adilabad district of Andhra Pradesh. In his two-hour long speech, Owaisi made multiple comments against Hindus, Hindu deities, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, Vishva Hindu Parishad, Bharatiya Janata Party, Narendra Modi, India and United States of America.[6][7][8][9][10][12][18][19] In his speech, Owaisi said that the 250 million Indian Muslims needed only 15 minutes without the police to show one billion Hindus who is more powerful.[6][20] Punjab Kesari reported that Owaisi referred to the Hindus as "impotent" and the Indian police as the "impotent army".[19] He said that not even one crore impotent men can together father one child.[19] He said that these people (Hindus) cannot face the Muslims, and whenever the Muslims start dominating the Hindus, the impotent army (police) intervenes.[19][21][22][23] Owaisi said that "we (Muslims) will not let you (India or Hindus) live peacefully,"[24] and added that the Muslims could "teach the rest of the country a lesson".[12]

He was already making many such derogatory speeches and getting away without any punishments.

On December 8, 2012, while speaking at Nizamabad, Owaisi made fun of Hindu festivals by saying "we (Muslims) have only two festivals, they have so many - one every 10 days." He referred to the Bhagyalakshmi temple in Hyderabad several times as "illegal temple".[3]

On December 12, 2012, Owaisi made derogatory remarks with hand gestures about Hindu goddess Bhagyalakshmi at a public rally in Nizamabad.[3] He said making hand gestures - "She, who is sitting," and added, "What is this new name Bhagyalakshmi, never heard of her. Shout such slogans such that the Bhagya also shakes and Lakshmi also falls down." The crowd then shouted slogans of Allahu Akbar.[3]

Finally, administration is forced to take action. Akbarrudding, who was making tall challenges, fled to London. He finally returned to Hyd in Jan, 2013.

Owaisi returned to Hyderabad on January 7, 2013 and was welcomed by hundreds of supporters and MIM leaders at the Hyderabad airport.[29][35] He later drove to his house in the Banjara Hills area of the city.[35] Owaisi failed to answer police summons at Nirmal town on January 8, citing ill-health, and asked for four days' time to appear for investigation.[36] A team of doctors examined Owaisi at his home twice on January 7 and the police declared that he was fit for investigation, even though he complained of bad health.[37] Owaisi also petitioned the High Court of Andhra Pradesh to quash the cases filed against him in lower courts.[37] On January 8, doctors examined him at the Gandhi Hospital and confirmed that their tests showed no medical grounds to prevent his arrest, following which he was arrested by Hyderabad police.[12] At the Gandhi Hospital, Owaisi alleged that that the doctors were trying to murder him by giving lethal injections.[38] Owaisi was shifted to the Adilabad district jail where he is currently housed

And I have only listed major incidents in major cities. Many smaller incidents are not remembered by anyone. For example:

[Yagnasri]

In spite of its larger presence in South and East I do not see INC getting more seats than BJP this time. The bad name and failure is simply too much. If the NaMo mantha works. BJP may end up aroung 180 that is some 60% of the seats in which they have some presense. Except for Nithish I do not see any other NDA partner opposing NaMo. But that is now given.

One difforence is glaring - MaMo talks about the great things he has done and doing and how good his state is and Nithish after beign in CM seats for many years says Bihar is in a Bad condition and needs a "special Package" from INC which along with Lalu is responsible for the condition of Bihar in the first place. Begging for things and "inclusive" growth seems to be talk of Nithish which will be supported by leftist people in Media in coming months.

[Atri]

Drought in MH is going to take a heavy toll it seems. If not in lives then in seats.. Things are not very good.. rather they are pretty bad.. water mafia stockpiling water resources to supply selected villages (with appropriate vote bank) with water-tankers.

[Yagnasri]

level of corrupttion in MH is very very bad. The drought condition is going to be very bad on people.

[Sushupti]

Drought in MH is going to take a heavy toll it seems. If not in lives then in seats.. Things are not very good.. rather they are pretty bad.. water mafia stockpiling water resources to supply selected villages (with appropriate vote bank) with water-tankers.

Read this

A tale of two droughts

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 266_1.html

Basically clash of two models i.e. Gujarat Vs Amethi

and Amethi model was defined by Penn Prof Saswati Sarkar

[RajeshA]

Indian Elections should be on Gujarat Model vs. Amethi Model!

[RamaY]

AP is interesting...

Thanks JohneeG garu.

- INC has good candidates in Andhra area for MPs (some of these guys need the party just to get that 15% vote)
- INC is wooing MIM, TRS and YSRCP (main opponent TDP and YSRCP)
- TDP is wooing MIM (main opponents YSRCP and INC)
- YSRCP is wooing MIM and TRS (main opponent TDP and INC)
- TRS is wooing MIM (main opponent TDP and INC)
- MIM is wooing INC and YSRCP (main opponent BJP)

Now OwaisiSr said that he would do anything to make sure that NM doesn't come to power.
YSRCP head Vijayamma said that they support INC in center
TDP will not support INC in center. May not support BJP either. Prefers 3rd Front.
TRS will support INC or BJP in center depending on who is in power
MIM will support only INC in center

So INC has the support of YSRCP, TRS, MIM and INC to get in to power in center. This is the logic behind Lanco Rajagopal's comment that INC will get 35+ seats in AP in 2014 elections.

To break this logjam BJP should work for pre-poll alliances. Potential candidates are TDP and TRS.

But TDP is investing too much in muslim vote. So cannot/will not join BJP in pre-poll/post-poll alliance.

TRS is the only possible candidate. We have seen some early signs for this but we need to wait till last moment. A TRS+BJP combine can hope to win 6-8 MP seats in Telangana.

Coming to Andhra/RS regions.

I think BJP should approach the non-CBN kamma leaders. As posted earlier 5Kamma MPs are there in Congress. These people are able to win despite being INC using their Kamma networks. Kamma's vote for these candidate irrespective of the parties. These candidates are

1. Rayapati Sambasivarao - Potential candidate
2. Kavuri Sambasivarao - Potential candidate
3. Dhaggubati Purandareswari - Potential candidate for her husband was in BJP for some time.
4. Lagadapati Rajagopal - He cannot come out INC for his anti-T stand

Two more seats that can tilt towards BJP are
1. Narasapuram - Where Actor Krishnam Raju won. If a Raju candidate is in the field, it will bring BJP some chances
2. Rajamandry - Can Jayaprada be pulled in? This is going to be an interesting contest between INC - Vundavalli Arunkumar; TDP - Muralimohan/Balakrishna and BJP can take in between.

[Theo_Fidel]

Hmmm...

Sounds like more MITI on MITI action. In one post english speakers are called all kinds of names with side jabs at Tamils and in the next community bashing is decried. What the....

[vishvak]

level of corrupttion in MH is very very bad. The drought condition is going to be very bad on people.

Is not Maharashtra at the top of economic growth numbers for decades? Maharashtrians should take that as an opportunity to do a UP style increase in strength numbers-wise after managing waters and building canals/dams etc Punjab style very well - even if in places. Corruption obviously would slow it down, along with lure of 'Mumbai' if anyone has noticed.

[Sanku]

Sounds like more MITI on MITI action. In one post english speakers are called all kinds of names with side jabs at Tamils and in the next community bashing is decried. What the....

Personally speaking, that is completely unacceptable as well. The only issues is that one or two posts often fly under the radar, and are often not worth going after, but matters start getting heated up when one poster(s) starts doing it as a habit and repeatedly.

Basically trolling.

[Theo_Fidel]

The problem with the GJ model is 2002. Every time Modi brings up GJ, 2002 will up.

This is why I have said he needs to articulate a model for India, speak to economic and social requirements. Don't bring up the GJ model at all, everyone knows what it is. Talk about what his plan for a India would be. Esp. an India that still looks a little skeptically at Neta's promising the moon.

[SwamyG]

R. Jagannathan talks about the model @ FP. He also clarifies that there is no Modi model: http://www.firstpost.com/economy/dear-n ... 65106.html

Let’s be clear, there is no Modi model or Gujarat model. The world has seen three development models – with small country-level variations – in the 20th century. One is the capitalist model pursued by the US, the other was the Communist/statist model followed by pre-Berlin Wall Soviet Russia and China (and some of their client states). The third is the European model, which gives the state a big role in welfare spending, but also assigns a key growth role to private players.

After the 1980s, almost all countries abandoned the Soviet model, including and especially the Chinese Communists. This leaves us with only two models to choose from – the American and the European ones. Both are now in deep trouble, but the betting is that America’s free enterprise spirit will somehow find its way out of the crisis. (There is some talk of a Nordic model, where the state does seek high taxes and in return offer high welfare benefits, but this can work only in monocultural countries with high levels of internal trust. It cannot work in multi-cultural countries like America and India.)

The Gujarat model is no different from the US or Chinese model – except for the political system that underpins them. The Gujarat model is no different from the south-east Asian model which produced the Asian tiger economies of the last quarter of the 20th century.

Manmohan Singh adopted the south-east Asian model with liberalisation in 1991, but then, after years out of power, the Congress under Sonia Gandhi slipped back to the welfarist model. This has brought economic decline after the initial (undeserved) growth phase petered out.

The so-called “inclusivist” element in the UPA or Bihar model is really a socio-political arrangement, where the benefits of growth are supposed to be shared through quotas and other such devices, even though they may be socially and politically divisive.

You can achieve inclusiveness in two ways: bake the cake first and then figure out how to share it; or fight about the cake before it is baked.

In both models, you need growth first and then re-distribution of the benefits. You cannot have it the other way. Nitish Kumar himself has been tomtomming the fact that Bihar has been topping the growth leagues, and even in Delhi he said as much when he chest-thumped: “We will leave everyone behind…”.

So he obviously believes in at least the first part of the Modi model: get growth up fast. In India, Gujarat, and many other states, including Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, have adopted the south-east Asian growth model, but only Modi has given ideological shape to it. He has adopted the Chinese version of it – chasing growth with high investments in infrastructure. Hence the emergence of the Gujarat model.

[RamaY]

^

That article ends with a Gujarat model. He actually missed one more key ingredient to Gujarat model.

Gujarat Model = Growth First and Fast, with heavy investment in infrastructure, without playing vote bank politics.

P.S: people who want to stop in 2002 will remain there forever as rest of Bharat moves on.

[Manish_Sharma]

The problem with the GJ model is 2002. Every time Modi brings up GJ, 2002 will up.

Majority population doesn't care about 2002, neither they appreciate nor they condemn Modi jee for it.

[Theo_Fidel]

India was unable to move beyond 1984 and the sikh question kept coming up again and again. It only now that the state and India has been able to move beyond. I think the majority did not care about that either.

You will immediately get into an argument about how NM has untrammeled power in GJ. Quick answer me this , how many portfolios does NM hold in GJ. I suspect most NM supporters do not know the answer to this question. It used to be the top 10, but now IIRC it is merely the top 6. NM has not just marginalized the opposition, he has even marginalized the BJP and the RSS.

This is not the American model either. I think it is closest to a Chinese model with Indian characteristics.

[RamaY]

Isnt communist model secular and most preferred in S.TN?

If S.TN is comfy with DMK and INC controlled power politics, they should be very comfortable getting used Modi's communist model.

[Atri]

Its funny everytime when I read S.TN... How did this south TN meme start actually?

[Sushupti]

India was unable to move beyond 1984 and the sikh question kept coming up again and again. It only now that the state and India has been able to move beyond. I think the majority did not care about that either.

You will immediately get into an argument about how NM has untrammeled power in GJ. Quick answer me this , how many portfolios does NM hold in GJ. I suspect most NM supporters do not know the answer to this question. It used to be the top 10, but now IIRC it is merely the top 6. NM has not just marginalized the opposition, he has even marginalized the BJP and the RSS.

This is not the American model either. I think it is closest to a Chinese model with Indian characteristics.

Hahakar Patel ka logic!!.

[Sushupti]

Its funny everytime when I read S.TN... How did this south TN meme start actually?

I too never got this connection. I thought S.TN was dominated by "Thevars", back bone of AIADMK.

[nachiket]

India was unable to move beyond 1984 and the sikh question kept coming up again and again. It only now that the state and India has been able to move beyond. I think the majority did not care about that either.

Neither did the minorities apparently? The Congress party's massacre of Sikhs in 1984 didn't stop Muslims and Christians from voting for them in subsequent elections.

[RamaY]

Tried to do a search to get the real references for S.TN but BR search engine thinks it is too common a word (no wonder this is a Hindutva forum).

So I will define it for you, secular untouchables

S.TN (noun): Land of Secular Milk and Honey. This is where Hindu vision of India is a communal agenda but not Islamic/Christian visions. This is where the Gujarat model will not work, because S.TN-vasis will not let that happen. This is the place true democracy is practiced, by electing Christians and Muslims even though they are minorities (one should not ask how did they get majority votes?). This is the place where voters give caste, religion, corruption and favoritsm higher importance than a candidate's proven track record of delivering good governance.

Now give your right index finger as Gurudakshina (so you cannot vote)

[Sushupti]

Tried to do a search to get the real references for S.TN but BR search engine thinks it is too common a word (no wonder this is a Hindutva forum).

So I will define it for you, secular untouchables

S.TN (noun): Land of Secular Milk and Honey. This is where Hindu vision of India is a communal agenda but not Islamic/Christian visions. This is where the Gujarat model will not work, because S.TN-vasis will not let that happen. This is the place true democracy is practiced, by electing Christians and Muslims even though they are minorities (one should not ask how did they get majority votes?). This is the place where voters give caste, religion, corruption and favoritsm higher importance than a candidate's proven track record of delivering good governance.

Now give your right index finger as Gurudakshina (so you cannot vote)

[Sushupti]

@realitycheckind
News is Stalin wants out of UPA today - busy news day ahead for journos.

Looks like Nitish may be required to switch very soon.

[Virendra]

DMK has officially pulled out from the UPA.
But I don't think there is a serious threat to the Govt. as of now.
Although it does tell us about how far UPA's link up with Nitish has gone or is set to go.

[Aditya_V]

level of corrupttion in MH is very very bad. The drought condition is going to be very bad on people.

Is not Maharashtra at the top of economic growth numbers for decades? Maharashtrians should take that as an opportunity to do a UP style increase in strength numbers-wise after managing waters and building canals/dams etc Punjab style very well - even if in places. Corruption obviously would slow it down, along with lure of 'Mumbai' if anyone has noticed.

Part of MH story was that most Big Corporations have their HO in Mumbai, remove Mumbai and the MH story will be different, it is very lop sided non inclusive growth, like Gurgoan and Haryana skewing the numbers.

MH was historically India No.1 developed state right from British times, but seems to be sliding down a lot in the last 10 years.

The leaders at the Centre and state who rule should know it takes more than 1 local train ride or a photo op at Kalavati's place to develop a state. That is if they belive thier future is in development or being in the Amethi model.

DMK pulling out of the Centre is all Drama with agreed understanding, UPA will survive.

One thing funny though, in 1999 Bellary in Karnataka was considered a safe seat where INC never lost for SG to contest.

Will the family try and contest from Bellary again?

[Sanku]

DMK has officially pulled out from the UPA.
But I don't think there is a serious threat to the Govt. as of now.
Although it does tell us about how far UPA's link up with Nitish has gone or is set to go.

My two predictions

The Drama with Mulayam and DMK is basically a choreographed event for the expected dissolution of the house post budget and early polls.

Nitish will attack INC in Delhi using JD(U) candidates. The whole idea of having Adhikar rally in Delhi was to basically canvass for votes in the massive East UP Bihar population.

[disha]

Its funny everytime when I read S.TN... How did this south TN meme start actually?

Somebody who is non-elected and not living in S. TN but in U.S of A claims to represent S. TN and further has a complete pulse on the happenings in S. TN (also has big land holdings in S. TN I believe). The views of the said poster is thus the views of the entire population of S. TN.

For eg. S. TN does not want Kudankulam. But S. TN wants electricity, free is preferable.
or
For eg. Following the principle of "you cannot win them, then join them"., hence the representative of S. TN said that one should convert and offer their souls to the one god.

Hence the S. TN meme.

[disha]

Tried to do a search to get the real references for S.TN but BR search engine thinks it is too common a word (no wonder this is a Hindutva forum).

So I will define it for you, secular untouchables

S.TN (noun): Land of Secular Milk and Honey. This is where Hindu vision of India is a communal agenda but not Islamic/Christian visions. This is where the Gujarat model will not work, because S.TN-vasis will not let that happen. This is the place true democracy is practiced, by electing Christians and Muslims even though they are minorities (one should not ask how did they get majority votes?). This is the place where voters give caste, religion, corruption and favoritsm higher importance than a candidate's proven track record of delivering good governance.

Now give your right index finger as Gurudakshina (so you cannot vote)

I thought for a while the middle finger was marked to indicate voting. So will that finger do?

[disha]

...
You will immediately get into an argument about how NM has untrammeled power in GJ. Quick answer me this , how many portfolios does NM hold in GJ. I suspect most NM supporters do not know the answer to this question. It used to be the top 10, but now IIRC it is merely the top 6. NM has not just marginalized the opposition, he has even marginalized the BJP and the RSS. ...

Have you heard of Jumbo ministries? For eg. in TN and AP there were ministries where half of the party's MLAs is some form of minister or other. Crores were spent on them ...

Have you heard of NaMo's mantra, minimum government - maximum governance. How do you think that is achieved?

Third, CM needs to have confidence in his cabinet, to carry a particular idea through to execution. If it is not there, he has to first nurture them and then carry it through. With Amit Shah hounded by the sickularists (still no viable case against him), he lost his trusted right hand man. It was to hamper NM, Amit Shah was hounded. So you see Modi starting with more portfolios and shedding some once he is confident in the team.

Fourth have you ever wondered why Modi is in direct charge of Kalpasar project. Think about it.

To me one thing is now clear:

Modi is secular, it is you who I think is being communal.

PS: Edited. Never meant as a personal attack. Just stating "bitter" facts.

[disha]

The problem with the GJ model is 2002. Every time Modi brings up GJ, 2002 will up.

Majority population doesn't care about 2002, neither they appreciate nor they condemn Modi jee for it.

+1

And remember, everybody deserves protection. One cannot say one deserves more protection than other.

[member_20317]

disha ji are you hopeful for the Kalpasar project. Though this would be better for the NM vs. dynasty thread.

I had my doubts on the centralisations aspect also. But then I realised the bane of the Indians is not lack of freedom. Yahan to saala everybody is a freedom fighter. Jahan free ka milta hai wahin fight kara lo logon se.

Our challenge is to consolidate our huge populations. And some degree of autocracy may actually end up doing us some good. Perhaps the reason why people kept electing Indira Gandhi despite the situation.

[Yogi_G]

It will be interesting to see Amma becoming PM. I dont think she will ever run for TN CM again if she becomes PM once. See Deve Gowda. Amma does have some trustworthy politicians to run TN when she is in centre as PM but it has to be closely watched how she prevents any usurping from happening right under her feet, she is very clever and am sure she will keep things under control. What portofolio will Modi get if Amma becomes PM is to be seen, maybe a new ministry called "Ministry of Consolidated development", correction, make it "Ministry of inclusive development" to make it sound more secular.