Managing Chinese Threat

[Christopher Sidor]

http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... ake_pearls
China's string of fake pearls

Consider Jane Perlez's New York Times story from October 2011:
A rising China with global ambitions is unlikely to supplant the United States in Pakistan, according to Chinese experts on Pakistan, as well as Pakistani and American officials. And while Pakistan’s latest flirtations with Beijing have been received cordially, Pakistani officials have walked away from their junkets with far less in hand than they might have hoped....
China’s core interests lie elsewhere — in its competition with the United States and in East Asia, experts say. China has shown little interest in propping up the troubled Pakistani economy, consistently passing up opportunities to do so. Despite China playing it cool, Pakistan has continued to fall all over itself to attract greater Chinese engagement in their country. Which leads us to today's headline in the New York Times: "Chinese Firm will Run Strategic Pakistani Port." Sounds ominous for U.S. interests... until one reads Declan Walsh's actual story: Pakistan is handing management control of a strategic but commercially troubled deep-sea port to a Chinese company, the information minister confirmed Thursday.... The fate of Gwadar, once billed as Pakistan’s answer to the bustling port city of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has been a focus of speculation about China’s military and economic ambitions in South Asia for the past decade. Some American strategists have described it as the westernmost link in the “string of pearls,” a line of China-friendly ports stretching from mainland China to the Persian Gulf, that could ultimately ease expansion by the Chinese Navy in the region. Gwadar is close to the Strait of Hormuz, an important oil-shipping lane.
But other analysts note that Gwadar is many years from reaching its potential, and they suggest that fears of creeping Chinese influence might be overblown. “There may be a strategic dimension to this, where the Chinese want to mark their presence in an important part of the world,” said Hasan Karrar, an assistant professor of Asian history at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, referring to the management transfer at Gwadar. “But I wouldn’t go so far as saying this implies a military projection in the region.”....
Pakistan has failed to build the port or transportation infrastructure needed to develop the port, the property bubble has burst and, according to the port management Web site, the last ship to dock there arrived in November. “The government never built the infrastructure that the port needed — roads, rail or storage depots,” said Khurram Husain, a freelance business journalist. “Why would any shipping company come to the port if it has no service to offer?”
According to reports in the Pakistani news media, the Port of Singapore Authority sought to withdraw from the management contract after the Pakistani government failed to hand over land needed to develop the facility. (emphasis added) This greater Chinese involvement, it should be noted, also comes after Beijing rebuffed Pakistani requests to turn Gwadar into a naval base. So, to sum up: despite Pakistan prostrating itself before China, Beijing has been extremely leery of getting too enmeshed in that country. It has rejected repeated requests for military basing, and only now has a commercial Chinese company agreed to manage a port that appears to be the Pakistani exemplar of "white elephant." So please, no "strong of pearls" posts from the national security blogosphere today. These pearls are about as fake as you can get. Am I missing anything?

China has not helped pakistan because till now it did not have the necessary means to do so. It is only in the past 2-3 years that China has built up the economic capability to do so. Further China not doing something till now, does not imply that it will not do so in the future.

Now about Gawadar. For China to station ships in Gwadar, would require it to built a navy which can spare ships from western pacific. Again till now it does not have the capability. When it will get the capability by 2020-25 these ports will be used. These pearls are not fake.

Now about the military basing. Well strange the author discounts the presence of PLA and its sister forces in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. So either the author is not aware of the full picture or is intentionally trying to deceive. I leave it to the reader to make the judgement.

Now about the conclusion about China being leery. Has the author not taken into the account the extensive presence of Chinese commercial firms in Pakistan. The author again has not taken the Lal Majisd incident into account. Lal Masjid operation was carried out, because the activities of the occupants of Lal Masjid carried out against certain Chinese citizens. Even Musharraf used that in justifying the assault against the Masjid. In the past PLAAF has exercised with PAF with PAF pilots flying in Su-30MKK fighters so that they can get a feel of what the fighter is capable of. This happened in this century.

Finally let me reiterate past performance or actions are not guarantee that a specific action will not be performed in future.

[Prem]

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... -pakistan/
Game of Thrones: Does China Even Want an Alliance with Pakistan?

He’s right that some journalists have overhyped the clear and present danger side of this story, but serious news mavens still need to keep an eye on it. For one thing, many of the journalists most worried about this are in India, where there are also significant political and security figures who have the same worries. They don’t necessarily think that China is getting ready to strangle India’s commerce and dominate the Indian Ocean right now, but they worry about China laying the foundations for something that may be more formidable over time. Serious people in India will be proposing naval investments and diplomatic responses as they watch Chinese moves, and anybody trying to follow the emerging geopolitics of Asia needs to track this.
Additionally, there is the impact of these moves on Indian public opinion. Just as the greatest danger in the East and South China Sea island disputes isn’t a deliberate attack, but rather a continuing cycle of mounting tension and enraged public opinion gradually pushing policy in a more confrontational way, so the perception of a zero sum struggle between India and China can be a real factor even if perception is running ahead of reality. Journalists in India (and elsewhere) are overhyping this story, but that itself is news. The overhyping both responds to and fires up nationalist public opinion that then becomes a factor in politics.
Additionally, the China-Pakistan connection touches some sensitive Indian nerves. Most foreign policy experts agree that Pakistan’s desperate attempts to play the China card against both India and the US havzner is right to pour cold water on the idea that China is right now launching a bid for mastery in the Indian Ocean, but Americans who ignore the growing tension among the rising powers of Asia will miss one of the key developments in the world today.e limited value because the Chinese don’t really want to be saddled with the costs of a full Pakistani alliance. The bride is more anxious for the wedding than the groom. But that doesn’t mean that Indian public opinion won’t hyperventilate when its sees evidence of tightening ties between what many consider a terrorist state to the northwest and what they see as a rising hostile superpower to the northeast. That China is also attempting to build ties with India’s southern neighbor Sri Lanka is also a factor,China is in no position anytime now or soon to challenge the US as the dominant naval power in the region, and should a real naval race develop India wouldn’t face China alone. Countries like Vietnam, Australia, Indonesia and the US would likely help preserve the balance of power. But bold Chinese moves, however limited, have an impact, and journalists are right to call attention to them and western readers need to know what Indians mean by the ‘string of pearls’ and need to be able to see how Chinese moves strengthen the perception that just such a string is Beijing’s goal.Dre

[SSridhar]

China Frigate Locked Weapon-targetting-radar on Japan Navy: Minister - ToI

A Chinese military frigate locked its weapon-targeting radar on a Japanese navy vessel on at least one occasion, Japan's defence minister said on Tuesday, in an apparent upping of the stakes in a bitter territorial row.

"On January 30, something like fire-control radar was directed at a Japan Self-Defense Maritime escort ship in the East China Sea. The defence ministry today confirmed radar for targeting was used," Itsunori Onodera told reporters in Tokyo.

Onodera said a Japanese military helicopter was also locked with a similar radar a few days earlier.

"Directing such radar is very abnormal," he said. "We recognise it would create a very dangerous situation if a single misstep occurred.

"We will seek the Chinese side's self-restraint from taking such dangerous action."

The move is an apparent ramping up of an already tense situation in the East China Sea, where Asia's two largest economies are at loggerheads over the sovereignty of an uninhabited island chain.

On Tuesday Tokyo summoned China's envoy in protest at the presence a day earlier of Chinese government ships in the waters around the islands.

No mention was made in the earlier announcement of the actions of any Chinese military vessels. It was not believed that the military ships had been in what Japan considers its waters.

"The foreign ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador over ships entering the waters near Senkaku islands," said an official, referring to a chain claimed as the Diaoyus by Beijing.

[shyamd]

Danger of conflict is quite real here. I hope contingency planning has been made - we get a lot of oil from that route.

[SSridhar]

Do Not Misjudge our Military Power - China Warns Neighbours - ToI

Amidst military tensions with its neighbours, a top Chinese general has warned countries in conflict with China not to underestimate its will to safeguard its sovereignty or its "military's staunch power" to protect Beijing's core national interests.

Speaking at a discussion to strengthen maritime struggle and maritime security cooperation conducted by People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Monday, Gen Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of general staff, said no country should underestimate China's determination to safeguard territorial integrity.

"He stressed in his speech that countries cannot underestimate the Chinese nation's strong will of safeguarding its state sovereignty, cannot underestimate Chinese government's firm determination of safeguarding its territorial integrity and cannot underestimate Chinese military's staunch power of safeguarding the core national interests", a brief report in state run People's Daily online said.

So, the core national interests now include Senkaku Islands as well ?

[Sushupti]

Blunt words on China from US Navy

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/201 ... -Navy.aspx

[Christopher Sidor]

Do Not Misjudge our Military Power - China Warns Neighbours - ToI

Amidst military tensions with its neighbours, a top Chinese general has warned countries in conflict with China not to underestimate its will to safeguard its sovereignty or its "military's staunch power" to protect Beijing's core national interests.

Speaking at a discussion to strengthen maritime struggle and maritime security cooperation conducted by People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Monday, Gen Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of general staff, said no country should underestimate China's determination to safeguard territorial integrity.

"He stressed in his speech that countries cannot underestimate the Chinese nation's strong will of safeguarding its state sovereignty, cannot underestimate Chinese government's firm determination of safeguarding its territorial integrity and cannot underestimate Chinese military's staunch power of safeguarding the core national interests", a brief report in state run People's Daily online said.

So, the core national interests now include Senkaku Islands as well ?

Core national interests are always defended by force. The Iraq's invasion and occupation of Kuwait drew a swift and violent response, off course dressed up in the so called human rights abuses and having to prevent children being thrown from the windows. PRC is following the glorified foot steps of all the colonial power, USSR/Russia and modern day US. These islands give PRC and specifically PLAN the capability to break free from the so called first island chain. They also are said to have massive amount of oil & gas under their seas. No wonder PRC will not give up that easily. It is more than a matter of face.

[SSridhar]

China's definition of 'core national interest' hitherto has been, South China Sea, Taiwan & Tibet.

[merlin]

China's definition of 'core national interest' hitherto has been, South China Sea, Taiwan & Tibet.

They are going to start to become more like the Pakis wherein everything is a core national interest. Akin to the Paki talking about even an inch of invasion of Pakistan as a redline for nuclear response.

[shyamd]

With China on its mind, India cozies up to Bhutan

Jayanth Jacob, Hindustan Times
New Delhi, February 05, 2013
Email to Author

Barely two weeks after Bhutan king was the chief guest at the Republic Day function, India will host the prime minister of the Himalayan country, Jigmi Y Thinley, on February 8.

With China wooing Bhutan hard and stepping up efforts for opening a consulate there, India is leaving
no stone unturned to ensure the strategically-important Bhutan doesn't stray too far.

The second high-profile visit will take place days after King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck reaffirmed the unique ties with New Delhi, recalling what his father had said: New Delhi remained "the cornerstone" of Bhutan's foreign policy.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Images/Po ... 2_pg9a.jpg

But there are concerns in New Delhi about the Bhutan's move to have diplomatic ties with China. The Himalayan country has remained the steadfast ally of India.

Jigme Thinley and Chinese premier Wen Jiabao met on the sidelines of the Rio+20 summit in June last year, after which the reports of Beijing opening a consulate in Bhutan gathered momentum.

Wen Jiabao was also quoted in reports as saying that China was "willing to complete border demarcation with Bhutan at an early date." China and Bhutan have an unresolved 470-km long boundary.

Bhutan holds immense strategic significance for India. The Siliguri Corridor, a crucial tri-junction between Bhutan, Bangladesh and Nepal, is about 500 km from the Chumbi Valley in Tibet. The Siliguri corridor is the only access point to India's north east and it connects Nepal with Bhutan. Chumbi Valley, where China wants Bhutan to make concessions with, is of strategic significance to China because of its shared border with Tibet and Sikkim.

[Virupaksha]

India cozies upto Bhutan. What kind of nonsense is this? Until 5 years ago, the foreign policy of Bhutan was driven by new Delhi.

[svinayak]

PRC foreign policy is being manged by some external country. PRC could have done this before and why now

[shyamd]

Cash, not China, tops Thinley’s agenda

Sandeep Dikshit
Share · Comment · print · T+
Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai calling on Bhutan Prime Minister Jigmi Y. Thinley in New Delhi on Thursday. Photo: R.V. Moorthy

With elections nearing, Bhutan doesn’t want India to slow down its assistance

Cash, rather than China, tops the agenda of Bhutan Prime Minister Jigmi Y. Thinley, who arrived here on a three-day visit. With elections due in Bhutan towards the middle of this year, Thimphu is keen that its development plans and hydel projects being constructed by India are not affected by the Finance Ministry’s move to reduce fiscal deficit, said government sources.

Mr. Thinley was a surprise winner in Bhutan’s maiden parliamentary polls and his group is keen to repeat the performance in the next elections as well. Showcasing ongoing road, hydel and other development projects and ensuring they are not affected are said to be one of the keys to his party repeating the showing when elections are held in June this year.

Mr. Thinley’s focus on economic ties with India is not surprising. During its years of good economic growth, India contributed generously to Bhutan’s Tenth Plan as well as maintained the flow of funds for three ongoing mega hydel projects — the 1,200-mw Punatsangchhu-I, the 1,020-mw Punatsangchhu and the 720-mw Mangdechhu.

This smooth flow of funds now appears to be in danger of being curtailed after Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram indicated his intention to take a closer look at the allocation for Bhutan as part of his overall drive to compress allocation of budgetary resources to most Ministries including the Ministry for External Affairs which channels India’s external assistance.

Mr. Thinley is also keen to know the status of seven other major hydel projects that have a generation potential of over 7,000 MW. The clearance schedule of all these projects has been pushed back by four to six months amid apprehensions that some of them involving central public sector enterprises may get further delayed.

As for China, sources close to Thimphu said the top leadership, including King Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuk, are kept acquainted about the situation on his country’s borders by India’s Research & Analysis Wing. So far, Beijing’s activities have not been an area of concern though middle ranking Chinese officials have visited Bhutan to test the waters on the prospect of establishing diplomatic ties.

Bhutanese sources also refer to the general aversion to the Chinese among middle level officials as one reason why the opening up towards China will not take place soon. During 10 years between the mid 60s to the mid 70s, when many of the officials were in their formative years, they were witness to the pitiful state of Tibetan refugees as they sought shelter in their villages along the route to India.

These memories still live with them and frequent reports of Tibetan monks immolating themselves has led them so far to politely stall China’s probes for a diplomatic presence in Bhutan. The dispute with China over what some Bhutanese regard as traditional grazing pastures for their cattle around the Sikkim-Bhutan-China tri-junction also dissuades them from getting too close to China.

Basically at the back of Mr. Thinley’s mind is the nervousness every politician suffers from before an election. Between now and June, when the elections are likely to be held, they don’t want a slowdown in Indian assistance for Bhutan’s budget or the hydel projects to become a factor, said official sources here.

[SSridhar]

Transformation of the Tibet issue from Hope to Despair: What Next ? - Yeshi Choedon, IDSA Comment

Tibet has been in the news in recent years due to a series of self-immolations by Tibetans as an extreme form of protest against oppressive Chinese rule. This is not the first time that the Tibetans in Tibet have protested against Chinese rule. They have expressed their grievances whenever they saw a window of opportunity, especially since the Chinese liberalization policy of the late 1970s. Under the oppressive Chinese rule, Tibetans have been very innovative in devising mechanisms to express their grievances, such as performing ‘khora’ (pilgrimage/meditation) around the Jorkhang temple, offering special prayers every Wednesday, the procedure for cremation of bodies of those shot dead by the Chinese authorities, and so on.

Self-immolation is the latest mode of protest adopted by the Tibetans. This is an act of desperation as there are no other viable avenues to express their grievances. This mode is not a Tibetan innovation as it has been resorted to by others before. However, unlike other cases where a single self-immolation captured international headlines and triggered major reactions, in the case of Tibet the effect has been different. Despite nearly a hundred persons having immolated themselves over the last few years, these events have passed by without much notice, let alone reaction.

This double standard of the international community is partly to be blamed on the Tibetans themselves. They failed to think and act like a nation according to the general trend in their neighbourhood and the rest of the world. They preoccupied themselves with religion and closed themselves to outside influence. Tibetan leaders bartered away their sovereignty for protection in the garb of a patron-priest relationship with China. Tibetans allowed their martial instincts, well known in their recorded history from the seventh century onwards, to be subdued. In short, Tibetans preoccupied themselves with the next life, forsaking the ways of living this present ‘conventional’ life.

Historical evidence suggests that Tibet as a nation had inadvertently committed major blunders, and that the people of Tibet, both inside and outside Tibet at present time, are bearing the harsh consequences of those blunders. Tibet is an ancient country with a recorded history of its existence since the seventh century. Its foundation, basic characteristics and consolidation as a distinct country took shape under the reign of 42 ingenious kings, who ruled from around 127 BC up to 842 AD. In the seventh to ninth centuries, Tibet emerged as a formidable military power in Central Asia and adopted expansionist activities towards its neighbours. The King of Nepal and the Emperor of China had to offer their daughters to the Tibetan Emperor in marriage. However, when Lang Dharma, the last of the aforementioned kings, was assassinated in 842 AD, Tibet underwent a period of turmoil and fragmented into small principalities.

This period had been referred to by the Tibetan historians as “Sil-bu-dus”, a veritable dark age, but in reality it was a period of cultural renaissance in Tibet. During this period, Buddhism had transformed from a courtly interest into a social force which permeated every aspect of Tibetan life. Moreover, different schools of Tibetan Buddhism started flourishing during this period. It was the Mongols’ invasion of Tibet and handing over the reign of Tibet to Sakya Lama that eventually paved the way for the system of rulers in whose hands both the earthly authority and the prestige of religious sanctity were united, and the whole of Tibet was once again brought under one central authority. The rule of the Lamas, first by the Sakyas (1247-1358) and later by the Dalai Lamas (1642-1959), brought about the historic transition from royal authority based on force to a lama-ist authority based on religious belief. The predominance of religion had the effect of neglecting statecraft and killing the martial spirit of the Tibetans.

In order to protect the lama-ist rule from external threats, a unique patron-priest relationship developed between the rulers of China and Tibet. Under this system, the Chinese rulers accepted the lama rulers of Tibet as their spiritual leaders and, in return, provided military protection to the latter . However, when the protector itself started posing a threat, after the Communist takeover in Beijing, it became necessary for the Tibetan government to interact with the rest of the world.

In the mid-1950s, the Tibetan government sent missions to India, Nepal, Britain and the United States to explain the crisis developing in its relationship with the new regime in Beijing, to inform the threat of China’s action against Tibet, and to seek their assistance. It also sent an appeal to the United Nations (UN) on November 7, 1950. In a letter to the Secretary General, it explained:

Tibet recognize that she is in no position to resist (The Chinese advance)…. This unwarranted act of aggression…has created a grave situation in Tibet and may eventually deprive Tibet of her long cherished independence…. We therefore appeal through you to the nations of the world to intercede in our behalf and restrain Chinese aggression.

Neither these countries nor the UN responded positively to Tibet’s pleas for assistance. When a full-scale military attack was launched on Tibet on October 5, 1950, Tibetan soldiers fought bravely at Chamdo but were defeated. Tibet was also faced with a diplomatic set-back as the UN decided to defer the discussion on the Tibet issue mainly on the ground of its unclear status. With these setbacks, Tibet had no alternative but to sign the contentious Seventeen-Point Agreement on May 23, 1951. However, the simmering discontent and resistance to China’s policy in Tibet continued throughout the 1950s and finally erupted into a full-scale national uprising against Chinese rule in March 1959.

When, for the first time, a full-scale discussion on Tibet took place in the plenary session of the UN General Assembly, Tibet was discussed not as a nation subjected to aggression and colonial occupation but under the diluted, term “human rights violation”, thus evading any reference to the political situation. A resolution was passed in that august body calling for “respect for the fundamental human rights of the Tibetan people and their distinctive cultural and religious life”. The draft resolution was passed by the General Assembly by 46 votes to nine, with 26 abstentions. Subsequently, two more resolutions of a similar nature were passed in the General Assembly in 1961 and 1965. Thus, according to the UN, the ancient nation of Tibet was not qualified to be treated as a nation-state; nor did the august international body consider Tibet to be an occupied territory. It simply denigrated the issue as merely a question of the denial of human rights of the Tibetan people by the Chinese state.

Despite these setbacks, Tibet did not become a lost cause. Nationalist feelings in Tibet remained uncontaminated even after persistent Chinese indoctrination, which was manifested for the first time in the spontaneous outpouring of emotion in greeting the fact-finding delegations of exiled Tibetans in the 1980s and 1990s. Thereafter, Tibetans in Tibet used every opportunity to protest against Chinese rule and express their aspiration for independence. They resorted to various innovative methods of protest (discussed earlier), leading to the imposition of martial law in Tibet in March 1989.

This was the period when western countries were celebrating their victory over communism with the end of the Cold War and disintegration of the former Soviet Union, and when their people were expecting governments to promote their cherished values worldwide. In this context the governments and parliaments, especially in the West, needed to be seen doing something for Tibetans to placate their public. Their high-sounding resolutions and pronouncements proved to be futile as they lacked the political will to take concerted and coordinated action against China. In fact, as their stand on human rights clashed with their core national interests of markets, trade and investment opportunities, human rights became side-lined. In order to satisfy themselves and their general public, western leaders seems to have persuaded the exiled Tibetan leaders to engage in dialogue with China and induced them to give up Tibet’s core issue of independence as a concession to start the dialogue with China. The series of dialogue that ensued between the exiled leaders and the Chinese government proved futile mainly because the pressures exerted by the western governments were not compelling enough for China to yield ground. In hindsight, it is obvious that China engaged in these fruitless rounds of dialogue to buy time with the intention of finding a “final solution” by its own means.

Tibetans, both in Tibet and in the diaspora, are in deep despair due to the lack of progress in the dialogue process despite giving in on their most cherished goal of independence as well as because of the lack of visible reaction to the loss of nearly hundred precious lives from self-immolation. However, their decision to celebrate the centenary of the “Proclamation of Tibet Independence” issued on February 13, 1913, seems to indicate that they seek to resurrect the issue once again. This time round, the comity of nations should not blame the Tibetans for going back on their stand of independence or their willingness to work within the Chinese constitution. It would not be a surprise if they do; after all, state authorities always take a stand on the basis of costs and benefits.

Tibetans should learn to focus on mobilizing the support of and relying on international civil society as this is an era of civil society activism the world over. For the international civil society, the Tibet issue is the test case to prove that they stand for what they claim to stand for.

Dr. Yeshi Choedon is Associate Professor at the Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

[Christopher Sidor]

Shared Threat Perceptions Begin Renewal of Sino-Russian Arms Trade --- Jamestown Foundation Dated 15-Feb-2013

This article claims that due to the expansion of US BMD to the Western Pacific region and shared views on Syria/North Africa/Korea are propelling PRC and Russia towards a alliance or at the minimum coordinate actions on various foreign policies initiatives.

• On January 8, China’s incoming president, Xi Jinping, said strengthening relations with Russia was a priority for China and told the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, that China would work toward a comprehensive bilateral strategic partnership with an emphasis on coordination and mutual political support.
• China’s senior legislator, Wu Bangguo, told Russian officials on January 28 that China would prioritize the development of a strategic partnership with Russia
• Despite the long-standing Russian mistrust caused by China’s piracy of Russian weapons and technology, “broader geopolitical considerations are at play that may trump the strong reservations that the Russian defense industry would have in selling their advanced arms to China,” according to Tai Ming Cheung, director of the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California – San Diego (Defense News, January 21).
• Russia also was able to induce China to sign a document saying it would not reverse engineer the Su-35. Enforcing this agreement, however, will be quite problematic once the planes are in Chinese hands. In addition, Russian sources are claiming that the ultimate purchase will not be for 24 Su-35s but for a figure closer to 40 of the aircraft

The article then goes on to discuss the various weapon sales like SU-35, S-400, arresting wires for aircraft carriers. It also spends considerable time on the rumored sale of Tu-22M3 (Backfire) bomber. The implications for India on this would be significant. PRC using its bases in southern China would use these bombers against our naval assets near Andaman and Bay of Bengal. Also it mentions briefly the help which Russia is giving PRC in terms of submarine especially the proposed sale of Amur submarines.

According to the article PRC wants SU-35 so as to access its engine, which it wants to use on its 5th gen fighter.

[SSridhar]

India pushes for expanded banking links with China - Ananth Krishnan, BusinessLine

India has called on China to expand banking links between the two countries and to enhance licensing procedures, in an effort to create a more conducive environment for companies -- on both sides of the border -- still grappling with financial barriers despite rapid growth in trade and mutual investments.

Union Minister of State for Finance Namo Narain Meena, who was in this northeastern port city on Tuesday to open the State Bank of India’s (SBI) second branch in China, the only Indian bank which has been able to do so, made a pitch to Chinese regulators to help enable the ten Indian banks that currently have a presence in the country to open branch operations.

"Foreign bank licensing policy is gradual in China, and all these banks are at various stages of establishing their operations,” he said. “It is hoped that other Indian banks that have fulfilled conditions set for foreign banks in mainland China also graduate to opening branch operations at an early date.”

SBI, which opened its first branch in Shanghai in 2006 – almost a decade after it set up a representative office – received the green light from regulators to open its second Chinese branch in this thriving northeastern port city, through which much of India’s trade with northern China is routed. The Shanghai branch was allowed to start operations in the local Renminbi (RMB) currency in 2010.

"The success achieved at the Shanghai branch has encouraged us to strengthen our presence in China by upgrading our representative office in Tianjin to a branch,” said SBI Managing Director Hemant Contractor. The bank works with around 90 Indian companies who trade with China and around 200 Chinese companies.

The Tianjin branch, which will open with an operating capital of 300 million RMB and does not yet have the approval to work in RMB, will focus on assisting “small and medium companies” located in northern China and “try to facilitate bilateral trade finance”, Mr. Contractor said.

SBI is the only Indian bank to operate two branches in China in addition to two branches in Hong Kong. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is the only Chinese bank with a branch in India, although the ICBC has expressed interest in opening a second branch – in New Delhi – and the Bank of China is considering opening a branch in Mumbai.

Banks in both countries have expressed some frustration at the challenging licensing procedures on both sides of the border. With increasing bilateral trade, which has risen from a couple of billion dollars at the start of the last decade to $ 74 billion in 2011, when China became India’s biggest trading partner, the need for expanded banking relations has risen, officials say. Trade fell to $ 66 billion last year on account of the downturn, but is expected to meet a $ 100 billion target set for 2015.

Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar said India had now become the largest market for project exports from China, with over $ 55 billion worth of projects – from infrastructure to power – under execution.

“In this background, expanded banking relations between India and China is very important,” he said. “The Reserve Bank of India and the China Banking Regulatory Commission have already reached agreement to expedite processing of licenses... It is only when our banks are more connected that we can be said to have achieved the full spectrum relationship that is natural to neighbours.”

[SSridhar]

Indian Ocean Security Taskforce to be Launched in Australia - BusinessLine

I am posting this here for obvious connections. The headline, however, is wrong in that the taskforce is already 2 years old. It is the report of the taskforce that is coming out now.

A taskforce on the changing security dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region and the roles of India and Australia in Indo-Pacific security will be launched in Canberra next month.

Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr will officially launch the Australia India Institute’s latest taskforce at Parliament House in Canberra on March 20.

Taskforce report

A taskforce, which was set by Australia India Institute (AII) in 2011, has brought together experts from Australia and India to discuss, debate and report on policy directions that both may consider for the future enhancement of regional security.

According to inaugural director of AII, a Melbourne-based thinktank, Amitabh Mattoo, said, “The report traverses the questions of the changing security dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region, the security challenges, and India and Australia’s Indo-Pacific security.”

SLOC security

The report has also examined the issues related to sea lanes of communication security along the long Indo-Pacific littoral, with particular focus on Indian and Australian perspective on SLOC security between the Red Sea and South China sea and to consider the roles of India and Australia in Indo-Pacific security, including discussion of Indian and Australian perspectives on their (and each other’s) future roles in Indo-Pacific security.

The taskforce has been based on four principle-related aims including to discuss the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), its changing global significance, the various perspectives of regional states and the IOR’s relationships with other regions as a part of a broad context for an analysis of security issues.

It has also been aimed to analyse the numerous security challenges of the IOR, including major ‘non-traditional’ security issues, including fishing and food security, global warming and environmental issues, population and migration, access to undersea energy resources and differences and similarities in Indian and Australian perspectives.

[Prem]

http://news.yahoo.com/us-ready-strike-b ... nance.html
US ready to strike back on China cyberattacks
( Its Getting Serious)

WASHINGTON (AP) — As public evidence mounts that the Chinese military is responsible for stealing massive amounts of U.S. government data and corporate trade secrets, the Obama administration is poised to spell out specific trade actions it may take against Beijing or any other country guilty of cyberespionage.According to officials familiar with the plans, the White House is eyeing fines, penalties and other trade restrictions as initial, more-aggressive steps the U.S. would take in response to what top officials say has been an unrelenting campaign of cyberstealing linked to the Chinese government. The new strategy is to be released Wednesday, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the threatened action.The White House plans come after a Virginia-based cybersecurity firm released a torrent of details Monday that tied a secret Chinese military unit in Shanghai to years of cyberattacks against U.S. companies. After analyzing breaches that compromised more than 140 cIf the Chinese government flew planes into our airspace, our planes would escort them away. If it happened two, three or four times, the president would be on the phone and there would be threats of retaliation," said former FBI executive assistant director Shawn Henry. "This is happening thousands of times a day. There needs to be some definition of where the red line is and what the repercussions would be."
Henry, now president of the security firm CrowdStrike, said that rather than tell companies to increase their cybersecurity the government needs to focus more on how to deter the hackers and the nations that are backing them.ompanies, Mandiant has concluded that they can be linked People's Liberation Army's Unit 61398.

[ramana]

Massive loss of H&D for PRC and hence the questioning tone!

India's rice revolution: Chinese scientist questions massive harvests
No Dong Ling Long Jealousy Case

China's leading rice scientist has questioned India's claims of a world record harvest, following a report in last week's Observer of astonishing yields achieved by farmers growing the crop in the state of Bihar.Professor Yuan Longping, known as the "father of rice", said he doubted whether the Indian government had properly verified young Indian farmer Sumant Kumar's claim that he had produced 22.4 tonnes of rice from one hectare of land in Bihar in 2011.Yuan, director-general of China's national rice research centre and holder of the previous record of 19.4 tonnes a hectare, asked: "How could the Indian government have confirmed the number after the harvesting was already done?"
Many scientists initially doubted whether yields of this magnitude were possible, but peer-reviewed papers have shown consistent improvements over conventional rice farming methods. Yuan told the Chinese press after seeing the Observer Food Monthly article: "I introduced the intensification method to China myself. It could increase yields by 10-15% in low-yield fields, but it's not possible for fields that are already producing relatively high yields."

However, Norman Uphoff, professor of agriculture at Cornell University in the US, defended Kumar and the Indian authorities. "The yield measurements for Kumar and other farmers in the Nalanda district of Bihar, which matched or exceeded the previous record, were at first rejected by Indian scientists, who did not believe such results were possible."The measurements were made by staking out 10 by 5 metre plots in the centre of one-acre fields, not sampled crop-cuts from small areas. The 50 square metre plots were harvested with hundreds of people watching the cutting, threshing and weighing because everyone anticipated unprecedented yields," he said."These results were achieved with hybrid varieties which derive from Yuan's own innovation of hybridising rice, considered for decades by most rice scientists to be impossible." The measurements were later acknowledged as valid by both the Indian Council for Agricultural Research and the Ministry of Agriculture. Last week the government of Bihar, where nearly half the population of 100 million live below the poverty line and 93% depend on growing rice and potatoes, endorsed SRI, saying its rice production increased to a record 8.2m tonnes last year, against 3.1m tonnes in 2010-11. "The quantum jump is due to the use of the new SRI technique of rice production," said the finance minister, Sushil Kumar Modi.

So someone from Cornell measured it and was accepted by the ICAR and Bihar State govt.

[SSridhar]

GoI is aware of China's military modernization: AK Anony - Economic Times

The government is aware of China's military modernisation and infrastructure development along the Sino-India border and it regularly reviews the threats to national security, Defence Minister A K Antony told the Lok Sabha today.


Development of infrastructure and operational capabilities to achieve desired defence preparedness to safeguard sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of India are an ongoing activity, he said in a written reply.

The government "is aware of China's military modernisation and infrastructure development along the India-China border. Government reviews the threat perceptions which impact national security regularly and initiates required measures," he said.

On whether cases of intrusions by Chinese Army in Arunachal Pradesh have come to light, he said such incidents are taken up through established mechanisms.

"Along the border with China there are sectors where both countries have differing perceptions of the border. Both sides patrol upto their respective perceptions of the border or Line of Actual Control (LAC)," he said.

Incidents of transgressions are taken up with the Chinese side through established mechanisms of Hot Lines, Flag Meetings, Border Personnel Meetings and normal diplomatic channels, he said.

To a separate question on the visit of a military delegation to China recently, Antony said, "The purpose of these visits is to promote mutual trust and confidence between both countries."

On rail-road link upto border areas, Antony said, the government has identified strategically important border roads and railway lines for development for improving the operational capabilities of the forces in phased manner.

About his tour of Myanmar in January this year, the Minister said, "During the visit, discussions were held with the Myanmar side on issues relating to border management cooperation, armed forces interaction and other defence and security matters of mutual interest."

[SSridhar]

China's new leadership hikes defence budget by 10.7% - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu

China on Tuesday said it would increase its annual defence budget by 10.7 per cent in the coming year to 720.168 billion yuan ($115.7 billion), even as officials defended the increased outlay as “good for regional stability” despite recent tensions with several neighbours.

The new defence budget — the first under the new leadership that will take over this month, completing a once-in-ten year transition that began in November — is expected to be approved by the National People’s Congress (NPC) or Parliament, which opened its annual session on Tuesday morning.

China's military budget is now more than three times India’s defence spending, which was, last week, increased by a less than expected 5 per cent to $37 billion (or Rs. 2 lakh crore). China’s defence budget last year rose 11 per cent to $ 106 billion.

The crucial week-long NPC session will formalise the appointment of new Communist Party of China (CPC) general secretary Xi Jinping as the country’s next President. Second-ranked Polit Bureau Standing Committee member Li Keqiang is also expected to replace Wen Jiabao as Premier.

7.5 per cent growth target

The planned defence budget for the coming year was announced in a draft budget plan released in Beijing on Tuesday morning, when Mr. Wen presented, for the last time, the work report of the government to mark the start of the session.

The report said the government would set the coming year’s growth target at a lower 7.5 per cent, with an aim to “accelerating the change of the growth model, adjusting the economic structure and improving the quality and performance of economic growth”.

Stress on stability, environment

The draft budget also hiked internal public security spending — which is directed towards police forces and to maintain stability — by 8.7 percent, to 769.1 billion yuan ($ 123.65 billion). Underscoring the seriousness with which the CPC views the maintenance of public stability, internal security spending has exceeded the external defence outlay for the second straight year.

The draft budget allocated substantial increases in spending towards the environment, education and social security, in an indication of the government's particular focus on addressing the pollution problem and income inequality.

The budget proposed a 9.3 per cent increase in education spending to 413.245 billion yuan ($ 66.44 billion). Social security spending will be increased by 13.9 per cent to 655.081 billion yuan ($ 105.32 billion), as the governments looks to bridge a widening income cap, strengthen the social safety net and enable increased domestic consumption as a driver of growth.

Among the biggest increases in allocations was for environmental protection, with spending set to be raised by 18.8 per cent to 210.127 billion yuan ($ 33.78 billion yuan). Mr. Wen, in the work report, said the government would “resolve to solve the problems of serious air, water and soil pollution that affect the people’s vital interests”.

Defence hike in focus

Defence spending was, however, the focus of attention for foreign analysts and diplomats ahead of Tuesday’s opening, seen as an indicator of the new leadership under Mr. Xi plans to manage the country’s vast and influential military.

After taking over as General Secretary of the CPC in November, Mr. Xi has appeared to court the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) more actively than his predecessor Hu Jintao. Unlike Mr. Hu, the new general secretary has close ties with the military, having served as an aide to a senior general early on in his career. In his first three months in charge, Mr. Xi has already made more than half a dozen visits to PLA units.

A day ahead of the start of the NPC session, officials had appeared to set the stage for a substantial hike in defence spending. NPC spokesperson and outgoing Vice-Foreign Minister Fu Ying said China, as “a big country”, required a proportionately sizeable outlay “to ensure security”.

Neighbours’ concerns

The 10.7 per cent hike was, however, in the same range as last year’s 11.2 per cent rise, when the budget was increased to $ 106.4 billion.

While Chinese analysts point out that this year’s $ 115.7 billion budget is still dwarfed by the $531 billion U.S. defence budget, the hike in spending is likely to worry China’s neighbours. For instance, the outlay is now more than three times India’s defence spending, which was last week, hiked by 5 per cent to $37 billion, and more than double Japan’s $ 52 billion budget.

Asked about concerns voiced by China’s neighbours, Ms. Fu, the NPC spokesperson, told reporters on Monday China strengthening its defence “is good for stability in this region and for peace in the world”. {AoA}

“Our foreign policy for peace and our defensive policy have contributed to peace in this region,” she said. “We have upheld this policy for decades and we have never wavered in this commitment... If we look back at history at the end of the Cold War were tensions, conflicts, instability and even wars, but Asia on the whole has been quite tranquil. This is why all countries in Asia can stay focused on their countries’ development.”

Transparency

China’s rise in defence spending has been cited by some countries in the region, such as Japan, as a reason for their own recent hikes in military outlay. While foreign observers have questioned the opacity in China’s accounting and pointed out that certain allocations — such as the military components of the space programme and the domestic People's Armed Police Force - are excluded, analysts say transparency is improving.

“While China’s official defence budget does not capture all defence-relevant spending, it is not exceptional in this regard,” argued Andrew S. Erickson, an Associate Professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College, and Adam Liff, a scholar at Princeton University, in a recent paper on China’s defence spending.

“Despite perennial limitations in China’s budgetary transparency, the information currently available about China’s priorities and investment is sufficient to develop a good sense of its broader military trajectory,” the paper said, also pointing out that contrary to widely held perceptions, the official defence budget “has decreased (near-monotonically) from 9.5 per cent of total state financial expenditures in 1994 to 5.5 per cent in 2011.” The paper said China’s military focus, in the short term, would be aimed at “maintaining domestic stability, preventing Taiwan from declaring independence, and asserting China’s claims in the contested Near Seas by asymmetric means”.

[SSridhar]

Nightwatch on latest China-Japan developments and other Chinese events

Three Chinese maritime surveillance boats and a fishing boat entered the waters near the disputed Senkaku Islands on 4 March. Crew on the surveillance boats told Japanese patrol boat crew members that the islands belong to China, according to a report by the Japanese crew. On Monday, 4 March, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying was asked by a Japanese reporter whether China would take further strong steps against Japan on the issue of the disputed islands. She said many Chinese people think the government should take tougher measures against provocative actions. Fu restated China's official position of finding a common ground through dialogue. However, she described the islands' nationalization by Japan (last year) as a provocation, and justified China's intensifying activities in waters near the islands. She quoted a Chinese proverb that says it is impolite not to respond to another's act. {The underlined must be internalized by Indian policy makers vis-a-vis China and Pakistan}
Comment: Vice Minister Fu is the newly appointed spokesperson for the congress, which opens on 5 March. Her most important statement is the explanation that the Chinese judge that Japan's action to make the islands national property represented an escalation move, to which China has been responding aggressively with increased air and sea patrols. Actually, the frequency and proximity of at-sea encounters have increased steadily with China's emergence as a 'rising power' in the past seven years. A violent incident is almost unavoidable, through misadventure if not deliberation. Neither Japan nor China is prepared to back down. Both have reinforced their claims by enacting legislation or by executive action. At this time, there is no basis to expect either nation will abide by a judgment on its claim by any entity. That creates the condition for an escalation of the encounters, eventually leading to a test of strength, but not in the next several weeks for certain because of the National People's Congress.

China: The National People's Congress opened in Beijing during this Watch. In a report on the state of the nation, outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao gave his administration a mixed review in achieving greater income equality, reducing corruption and sustaining high economic growth. Wen warned about the disparity between the urban elites and the rural population and about the dangers of unbalanced economic growth. He said, 'Social strains are clearly increasing.'
Comment: The Congress will last two weeks and it will essentially rubber-stamp decisions already made in prior Party meetings. General Secretary Xi Jinping will be elected President, replacing Hu Jintao. Li Keqiang will be elected Premier, replacing Wen Jiabao. Chinese authorities released a copy of Wen's speech and a budget report prior to the opening. According to the budget report Chinese defense spending will increase by 10.7 percent in 2013, to $119 billion. Concerning defense, Wen said, 'We should accelerate modernization of national defense and the armed forces so as to strengthen China's defense and military capabilities; We should resolutely uphold China's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, and ensure its peaceful development.'
Comment: China is the world's second largest defense spender, after the US, and the announced figure does not include Chinese spending on defense research and development, arms procurement and defense industrial activities. US defense expenditures totaled $677.2 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars in 2012, compared with $699.1 billion in 2011, according to Bloomberg News. The increase in defense spending provides the clearest answer to the Japanese reporter's question about what to expect in the East and South China Seas this year: more and more aggressive encounters.

[SSridhar]

China's ASAT Enigma - Dwayne Day, The Space Review

China has been launching a lot of satellites over the past several years and has taken many people by surprise with a rapid build-up of military space capabilities. However, although the rate of increase has been alarming, nobody could have been completely in the dark about China’s development of military space capabilities. After all, in 2007 China announced their arrival on the military space stage with a bang, blasting one of their own defunct weather satellites into tens of thousands of pieces with a ground-launched anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. China has not repeated that highly controversial test, which substantially increased the amount of debris flying around in low Earth orbit and endangers many satellites as well as the International Space Station. However, China has conducted at least one other similar anti-ballistic missile test that US military officials have implied exercised their ASAT capabilities. More recently, only a few months ago there were rumors of an impending ASAT test, which so far has not happened. What is clear is that, more than six years after their ASAT test, very little is clear.
For the United States, deterrence means dissuading an adversary from doing something. But for China, their word for “deterrence” also includes the concept of compellance, forcing an opponent to submit.

On February 19, in Washington, DC, the TechAmerica Space Enterprise Council and the George Marshall Institute held a forum discussing China's plans, programs, and intentions for its ASAT and missile defense programs. The panel discussion featured Dean Cheng, Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center of the Heritage Foundation; Mark Stokes, Executive Director at the Project 2049 Institute; and K. Scott McMahon, Senior Defense Research Analyst at the RAND Corporation.

The panel discussion focused on the international political as well as American military policy issues concerning the Chinese ASAT capability. The panelists did not discuss China’s actual technical capabilities, a subject for which public information remains scarce. Although the United States Department of Defense publishes a regular, congressionally-mandated report on China’s military capabilities, that report contains very limited details on the subject, presumably to avoid revealing what the American intelligence community has discovered about Chinese ASAT capabilities.

Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation spoke about what the Chinese themselves have said in their government publications and journals about their military space capabilities. Many in the United States understand very little about China, Cheng said. He tried to add some much-needed perspective about the way the Chinese view the world. China, Cheng explained, does not have experience with “bolt from the blue” attacks or inadvertent war. Therefore, whereas ever since Pearl Harbor much American military theory has been driven by the concept of surprise attack, the Chinese have an entirely different experience base. From their view, war has always been deliberate.

Cheng further pointed out that understanding the language is important to understanding what the Chinese really mean. For example, the Chinese definition of “deterrence” is different than the commonly-accepted Western definition. For the United States, deterrence means dissuading an adversary from doing something. But for China, their word for “deterrence” also includes the concept of compellance, forcing an opponent to submit. This makes it harder to determine what Chinese officials may be attempting to achieve by developing an ASAT capability allegedly to “deter” the United States. Although Cheng did not mention it, this fact also may affect how the Chinese view US actions. After all, if they hear that the Americans are trying to deter them, they may not immediately think that it is an effort to prevent action, but interpret that as an attempt by the Americans to force China to do something they do not want to do.

Cheng also somewhat dismissively referred to views held by American arms control advocates, who have used relatively slim evidence to conclude that Chinese officials were surprised by the amount of debris generated by their 2007 ASAT test and therefore had not intended it to be as aggressive an act as it appeared. Cheng pointed out that there are Chinese writings predating the 2007 test indicating that China was aware that a kinetic ASAT test would create orbital debris, and generate a strong reaction. According to Cheng, they conducted the test to demonstrate “look what could happen” if a conflict spread into space.

Mark Stokes, Executive Director of the Project 2049 Institute, spoke about the lack of clarity on Chinese military institutions. He said that China has long been interested in anti-satellite capabilities. They had an ASAT and anti-ballistic missile program as early as 1964 that apparently ended by the latter part of the Cultural Revolution, certainly by the early 1970s. Later they initiated their “863 Program” (86 indicating it started in 1986), which was apparently a response to the Strategic Defense Initiative by the US.
Chinese military journal articles often emphasize how reliant the Americans are upon space, particularly for information, Cheng notes. “If we do not want the Chinese to go and develop ASATs, then we need to not rely on space.”

Stokes said that it is difficult to figure out “who owns the ASAT mission;” in other words, what part of the vast Chinese military bureaucracy is responsible for procuring the equipment and running the operations? The most likely acquisitions agency is the General Armaments Department, one of four departments in the People’s Liberation Army. But that remains unclear. The General Armaments Department is responsible for space tracking as well as testing of spacecraft. Theoretically, if they are the sponsor, they should also be the user. Another option is the General Staff Department, which has signals intelligence responsibilities, or even the Chinese air force, which has some missile defense responsibilities. Stokes said that there has been some speculation that the ASAT is designated “HQ,” which is an air force designation.

Stokes speculated about which organizations might be responsible for different parts of the weapon and when it may have been approved and developed. The Chinese would have done ground tests and flight tests. He noted that there were reports that the Chinese had performed two less-than-fully-successful tests before the widely known one in 2007. After several tests, presumably the system would have been transferred to an operational owner. “We still don’t know” a lot about what has happened, he added. Stokes noted that it is not clear if the weapons system has become operational.

Dean Cheng said that the Chinese ASAT development has to be placed in a larger military and political context. It is in many ways a response to what they perceive as American military reliance upon space. “They are very close students of the American way of war,” Cheng explained. “They have come to the realization that space is essential for the American way of war.” Their military journal articles often emphasize how reliant the Americans are upon space, particularly for information. “If we do not want the Chinese to go and develop ASATs, then we need to not rely on space.” But Cheng noted that it’s unlikely that the United States will fundamentally change the way it goes to war. He further noted that the Chinese developed long-range missiles while ignoring strategic aircraft. So they too have made choices that have restricted their range of future options. “The US and China compete in space for the same reason that we compete on the oceans and at the United Nations.” It is all about power and influence.

Echoing Cheng’s comment about it being difficult to believe that the Chinese were ignorant about how much debris their 2007 test would generate, Stokes noted that the Chinese have long had a system for tracking space objects and debris, so somebody in China could have informed their military leadership that their ASAT test would generate a lot of debris. However, just because the Chinese may have been aware that their test would make a powerful statement doesn’t mean that statement was intended for the United States. Stokes noted that in the year before the test, Taiwan’s government had been involved in a contentious debate about funding several new, and expensive, satellite systems. With their limited resources, this was a major decision for the Taiwanese. Stokes explained that the Chinese political leadership is obsessed with Taiwan. The Chinese test may have been intended to derail the Taiwanese satellite programs by sending a message that if Taiwan builds such satellites, China could blast them out of the sky.

The panelists also addressed the question of how the United States and its allies could respond to this new threat posed by China. Scott McMahon stated that he believes that the United States has very little ability to limit Chinese development of ASAT capabilities. He thinks that the Chinese believe that it is valuable simply to be able to attack some part of American military capability.
McMahon suggested that one possible US response to China’s newly acquired ASAT capability is to coordinate with allies in Asia. For instance, the United States could work with Japan to use Japanese rockets to replenish satellite constellations.

In response to a question about whether China faces defense cutbacks like those currently being experienced in the United States, Cheng noted that the Chinese should produce a defense white paper soon that outlines some of their defense plans. Echoing one of his coworkers, Cheng said “most countries have to choose between guns and butter. China gets to buy guns soaked in butter.” But lack of information about China’s ASAT capabilities is not unusual when you consider that there is very little information available on what China spends on its military. “We don’t know what China’s space budget is. We don’t know what China’s space budget is relative to its defense budget.” We do know that they are developing a lot of space assets. And we do know that they are one of only three countries that have “hit a bullet with a bullet,” he said.

The panelists also warned that it would be a mistake to get overly focused on the kinetic ASAT capability alone. Stokes added that there is a lot more to an ASAT capability than simply hitting the satellite including tracking the target. The General Armaments Department has made no secret of the fact that it has a unit for jamming satellites, presumably communications and even GPS.

McMahon suggested that one possible US response to China’s newly acquired ASAT capability is to coordinate with allies in Asia. For instance, the United States could work with Japan to use Japanese rockets to replenish satellite constellations. Cheng suggested that one “pipe dream” could be for the Asian countries to “talk to each other.” Unlike Europe, the Asian nations have no history of cooperating with each other. South Korea and Japan don’t even cooperate in the most basic intelligence sharing operations. This has consequences because it emboldens China. China’s increasing assertiveness in the region is a direct result of the failure of its neighbors to unite in standing up to China. “China has long been the big power and its peripheral countries bandwagon with it, or at best keep their heads down and their mouths shut,” he explained. These neighboring countries don’t need to jointly acquire hardware, but could at least share information. Japan is talking with India, but there is less discussion than there should be, Cheng said. Until they show better signs of standing together to oppose the big power in their region, they may find that China will continue to throw its considerable weight around.

And inevitably, Western analysts will continue to be confused by the dragon.

Let us recall that on January 5, 2013, China’s state-run Global Times said in an editorial,

“China should continue substantive research on striking satellites. In the foreseeable future, gap between China and the US cannot be eliminated by China's development of space weapons. The US advantage is overwhelming. Before strategic uncertainties between China and the US can disappear, China urgently needs to have an outer space trump card. China’s public policy is peaceful use of space, which is also China's real desire. China has no interest in launching a large-scale space race with the US. China and Russia jointly initiated a programme to avoid an arms race in outer space in 2008, but this proposal was refused by the US. Against this background, it is necessary for China to have the ability to strike US satellites. This deterrent can provide strategic protection to Chinese satellites and the whole country's national security”

[Prem]

Lets See Yellow Teet

Japan arrests China boat captain

TOKYO - Japan’s coastguard arrested the captain of a Chinese boat on suspicion of illegal fishing in its exclusive economic zone, officials said, amid a territorial row between the two countries. The coral fishing boat with a crew of 11 was spotted by a coastguard patrol plane in waters some 44km northeast of Miyako island in the Okinawan chain. The captain, 44, whose name has yet to be disclosed, was arrested on suspicion of fishing in the exclusive maritime zone without permission from Japan, the coastguard said. “After receiving information from our aeroplane, three of our patrol boats approached the Chinese ship, and they are now sailing back with the Chinese ship,” the spokesman said.

[kmkraoind]

Is China trying to overwhelm Japanese ships on disputed waters?

A daily stream of bulletins announce ship deployments into the East China Sea, naval combat exercises, the launch of new warships and commentaries calling for resolute defense of Chinese territory.

Experts warn that the danger of these constant deployments from both sides into the contested area increases the danger of an accident or miscalculation that could lead to conflict.

“The operational goal in the East China Sea is to wear out the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force and the Japan Coast Guard,” said James Holmes, a maritime strategy expert at the Newport, Rhode Island US Naval War College.

It wasn’t until China became embroiled in the high stakes territorial dispute with Japan late last year that its secretive military opened up.

Now, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is routinely telegraphing its moves around the disputed islands, known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese.

[RajeshA]

A single spark would change Japan forever!

[Prem]

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/artic ... 338243.php
China-calls-on-Japan-US-EU-to-avoid-devaluation

EIJING (AP) — China's commerce minister appealed Friday to other major governments to avoid suppressing the value of their currencies to boost exports, warning that could hurt global growth.Chen Deming was responding to a question at a news conference about the Japanese yen's weakness but said his appeal also was directed at the United States and Europe.The yen has fallen by about 20 percent against the dollar since the middle of last year, prompting concern other governments might respond by driving down their currencies to keep exports competitive."I'm worried that 'competitive devaluation' will lead to oversupply of money and it will have a negative effect on global economic growth," Chen said.

[Prem]

China warns against Korea escalation
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21713340

China has appealed for calm on the Korean peninsula, hours after North Korea said it had scrapped all peace pacts with the South and threatened pre-emptive nuclear strikes.China, the North's only major ally, said all sides should continue to talk and avoid "further escalation".Pyongyang has reacted angrily to another round of sanctions imposed by the UN over its recent nuclear test.The sanctions restrict luxury goods imports and banking activities.Beijing provides fuel, food and diplomatic cover to Pyongyang.It has repeatedly voted in favour of UN sanctions imposed over the nuclear programme, but enforcement of the measures in China is patchy.Hua Chunying of China's foreign ministry told a news conference on Friday: "China and North Korea have normal country relations. At the same time, we also oppose North Korea's conducting of nuclear tests.The threatened pre-emptive nuclear strike seems more bluff than reality, since the North's leaders know it would be suicidal, and an attack on the US seems impracticable given the still technically rudimentary quality of the North's ballistic missile programme and the unproven state of its nuclear miniaturisation technology needed to place a nuclear warhead atop a missile.A more troubling possibility is that the North might choose - out of irritation with the UN - to precipitate a border clash with South Korea, either on land or sea, as it did in 2010.Will sanctions persuade or provoke?
"China calls on the relevant parties to be calm and exercise restraint and avoid taking any further action that would cause any further escalations."Chinese and US officials drafted the UN resolution passed on Thursday.It contains similar measures to earlier resolutions, but the US said it had significantly strengthened the enforcement mechanisms.In response, the North Korean regime published a message on the official KCNA news agency saying it had cancelled all non-aggression pacts with the South.The two Koreas have signed a range of agreements over the years, including a 1991 pact on resolving disputes and avoiding military clashes.

[shyamd]

Dai Bingguo Holds Telephone Conversation with India's National Security Advisor Menon

2013/03/11
On March 11, 2013, State Councilor Dai Bingguo held a telephone conversation with India's National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon, exchanging views on China-India relations.

Dai said China attaches great importance to Sino-Indian relations. Over the past 10 years, Sino-Indian relations have made great progress, which brings great benefits to the two countries and their peoples and makes important contributions to the peace and prosperity of the region and the world at large. The two countries have explored an effective way of maintaining friendly co-existence, which has not only laid a sound foundation for the future development of bilateral relations, but also provided a good example for big powers and neighbouring countries to properly handle differences and seek common development. We are confident that with the joint efforts of both sides, China and India will embrace a better tomorrow for their relations.

Menon agreed with Dai's positive comments on bilateral relations, saying the development of Sino-Indian relations embodies the painstaking efforts of the leaders of the two countries and people from all walks of life, and the hard-won results should be cherished. The Indian side is willing to make joint efforts with China to push forward the strategic cooperative partnership.

India, China agree to stop tailing each other’s border patrols

Anirban Bhaumik, NEW DELHI: , March 10, 2013 DHNS
In a move to avoid occasional flashpoints in India-China border areas, New Delhi and Beijing have agreed that the soldiers of one country will not tail the patrols of the other along the disputed stretches of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Tailing of the patrols of one country by the soldiers of the other along the LAC had often heightened tension between the armed forces of India and China, particularly in the areas where the two countries have different perceptions about the alignment of the LAC.

According to diplomatic sources in New Delhi, the two countries discussed the proposal to avoid tailing of patrols when the first meeting of the “Working Mechanism” was held in Beijing in March 2012. Both countries agreed that tailing of patrols might disturb “peace and tranquility” along the LAC and lead to a flashpoint.

When senior diplomats and top military and security officials of India and China met again in New Delhi in November 2012 for the second meeting, they firmed up an agreement for avoiding tailing in the areas where the two countries had no common perception about the LAC.

Transgressions of Indian or Chinese patrols in each other’s territory are often caused by conflicting perceptions about the LAC.

Sources told Deccan Herald that when Indian soldiers patrolling the LAC had earlier transgressed into what China claimed as its territory, they had been stopped by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) personnel. The PLA soldiers had then tailed the Indian patrol as long as it had been in the territory they perceived as Chinese. Indian soldiers had done the same when they had spotted Chinese troops coming into the area they perceived as part of India.

“There was always a risk that such actions by each other’s soldiers might result in a confrontation,” said a senior official. He added, “What has now been decided is that the soldiers of one country would not tail, but just ask the transgressing patrol of the other to stop and go back.”

Minister of State for External Affairs Preneet Kaur recently informed the Lok Sabha that India and China have reached an agreement to put an end to the practice of tailing of the soldiers after setting up the “Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs.”

“This measure contributes to the maintenance of peace and tranquility in the India-China border area,” she stated in a written reply to a question in the House.
India and China agreed to set up the “Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs” in January 2012, when the Special Representatives of the two countries—National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon and his counterpart Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo—had the 15th round of talks on the boundary issue in New Delhi.

[Christopher Sidor]

Sino-Indian Defense Dialogue: A Panacea for the Sino-Indian Security Dilemma? --- Jamestown Foundation Dated 15-March-2013

A article which helps us to put things into prespective about the PLA, PLAAF and PLANs modernization programs

India still does not have a primary database on the Chinese PLA and its combat capabilities. The intelligence inputs are many a time derived from Western sources that may not cater to India’s national interests, especially in terms of their geographic coverage. Far more foreign studies are done on PLA activity related to cross-Strait and maritime periphery issues than on Chinese military activities near the LAC. [Editor’s Note: The distribution of China Brief analyses of Chinese military modernization is a good example of this imbalance.]
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The ultimate victim of Chinese PLA could once again be India, rather than Taiwan or one of the Southeast Asian countries. Second, the power relations between Chinese and Indian militaries are getting increasingly asymmetrical in all matrices.
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Further, as Mohan Malik points out, China has put in place a sophisticated military infrastructure in the Tibet Autonomous Region adjoining India: five fully operational air bases, several helipads, an extensive rail network and thirty thousand miles of roads—giving them the ability to rapidly deploy thirty divisions (fifteen thousand soldiers each) along the border, a three-to-one advantage over India. China has not only increased its military presence in Tibet but also is ramping up its nuclear arsenal

[Klaus]

Danger of conflict is quite real here. I hope contingency planning has been made - we get a lot of oil from that route.

On this note I wish to ask people in the know as to what is the exact route taken by commercial tankers in the Pacific (Sakhalin for eg) towards India?

I would like to think that they would be sticking to the second island chain and avoiding Taiwanese ports. Thus they would also avoid the Senkaku's and the Spratly's (provided they navigate the Sulu Sea between Mindanao and Palawan onto Sabah (Malaysia) and Brunei).

[anupmisra]

China replaces Britain in world's top five arms exporters: report

"On arms exports, China sticks to three principles. First, that it is conducive to the recipient country's justifiable self-defense needs. Second, it does not damage regional and global peace, security and stability. Third, it does not interfere in other countries' internal affairs," he told reporters.

"Pakistan - which accounted for 55 percent of Chinese arms exports - is likely to remain the largest recipient of Chinese arms in the coming years due to large outstanding and planned orders for combat aircraft, submarines and frigates," SIPRI said.

Note the mismatch between china's three stated principles (for export of weapon systems) and the main recipient's primary objective (to violate each one of the principles).

[SSridhar]

India gets ready to scuttle Chinese invetments in neighbouring countries - Thomas K Thomas, Business Line

Worried over increased Chinese participation in communication satellite projects in neighbouring countries, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Maldives, Indian security agencies are preparing a blueprint to counter this through a mix of investments and diplomatic negotiations.

A discussion paper floated for a secret inter-ministerial meeting under the chairmanship of the Deputy National Security Advisor, to be held on March 25, lists out a number of measures, including offering Indian know-how for building and operating the satellites and discouraging these countries from giving their orbital slots to Chinese companies.

Over the past two years, companies such as China Satellite Communications Co Ltd (China Satcom) and the State-owned China Great Wall Industry Corporation have been investing heavily in communication projects in India’s neighbouring countries.

Take, for example, Sri Lanka’s move to launch a telecom satellite in 2015 at a cost of $320 million in partnership with China Great Wall.

An agreement has also been signed with China Satcom to set up a space academy-cum-ground station in Kandy.

According to comments given by the Indian Space Research Organisation to the security agencies, with these satellites, Sri Lanka would be able to broadcast its channels deep inside Indian territory.

ISRO has found out that some of the orbital locations on the Sri Lankan satellites are registered under the name of Chinese administration which makes it technically possible for China to operate it.

In the case of the Maldives, it is understood that the Defence Minister of that country has initiated discussions with the Chinese for cooperation in the area of satellite manufacturing and launching.

Maldivian tender

In December, the Maldivian communication authority issued a tender to form a joint venture for this purpose.

According to top Government officials, India’s Antrix Corporation could bid for this project to scuttle any possible venture with the Chinese.

“ISRO may consider sending a delegation to Maldives to explore the possibility of cooperation in space technology. Maldives could be sensitised to India’s security concerns with regard to the presence of third countries in areas close to its borders,” a Government official said.

Easier said than done. We have woken up late to the realities.

[SSridhar]

China unveils 5-point formula to improve ties with India

The five points of the Neo Panchsheel are:

1. China and India should maintain strategic communication and keep the bilateral relations on the "right track" {What is China's interpretation of 'right track' ?}
2. harness each other's comparative strengths and expand win-win cooperation in infrastructure, mutual investment and other areas {infrastructure is one-way from China to India, investments by India are blocked through various means. So, it is a win-win for PRC}
3. strengthen cultural ties and constantly increase the mutually expanding friendship between the two countries {May be send some Bharatanatyam dancers to Beijing and screen some Bollywood movies in Shanghai. No big deal}
4. expand coordination and collaboration in multi-lateral fora to jointly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries and tackle global challenges. {This is also one-way only. China needs Indian support in Global Warming issues etc, but it will do everything to undermine Indian position in ADB for funding projects, or in UN for India's legitimate UNSC membership etc}
5. We should accommodate each other's core concerns and properly handle problems and differences existing between the two countries {This unilateral formulation of a 'core issue' on which no compromise is possible leads to problems and clash of interest. That is the aggressiveness of PRC which it camouflages with nice-sounding words}

[Christopher Sidor]

If there is one thing that the Senkaku Islands dispute has shown is the futility of using taiwan against PRC. It is Taiwan which has been the most aggressive with the Japanese on the issue of Senkaku Islands. It is Taiwan whose boats had a running water battles with the Japanese coast guard. PRC claims these islands as it own because it considers these islands to be a part of Taiwan and Taiwan a part of PRC.

The infamous 9-dashed line on which PRC claims the entire south china sea was not a creation of PRC rather it was a creation of KMT, which eventually fled to Taiwan and called it ROC, i.e. Republic of China. Similarly the Taiwanese believe that Tibet is a part of China.

What many do not realize is that Taiwan/RoC(i.e. Republic of China), considers itself as the legitimate ruler of whole of China and not only just the island of Formosa. i.e. it considers the current rulers of Peking, i.e. CPC, as illegitimate. If tomorrow the unthinkable happens and KMT were to prevail over CPC, it would be as unyielding as CPC has been over the illegal occupation of northern ladakh and Tibet.

[RajeshA]

Christopher Sidor ji,

The current Taiwanese leadership under Kuomintang, President Ma Ying-jeou, is quite PRC-friendly, and is probably doing this at the instigation of PRC. Any skirmish with the Japanese would mean that Taiwan and PRC would diplomatically come together. That seems to be the Mantra of Kuomintang as a way to defeat DPP which is officially in favor independence.

[Prem]

Japan Joins the Trans-Pacific Partnership -- Finally!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 17496.html
( Pacificasia uniting Sans China and Taiwan)

Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s statement of his country’s willingness to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations is good for the U.S., Japan and the TPP. It follows former Japanese Primate Minister Noda’s announcement at the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) in 2011 of Japan’s interest in the TPP negotiations, which came after almost two years of discussions between the Japanese government and the other TPP parties on their expectations should Japan join the trade agreement. The TPP parties currently include the U.S., Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.Japan’s participation in the TPP will boost the agreement’s economic and strategic significance. The TPP aims to be the 21st century trade agreement that sets the rules for trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region going forward. Achieving this goal will require other major economies in the Asia-Pacific region to join the agreement with the intention of the TPP ultimately becoming a Free Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), and Japan’s participation in the TPP will give added momentum towards this goal. For one, with Japan the TPP will cover 8.6 percent of global trade and almost 40 percent of global GDP. Japan’s entry into the TPP is also likely to give further impetus to other countries joining. In particular South Korea, Prime Minster Abe’s decision to commit Japan to joining the TPP should also be understood as a necessary compliment to his efforts to stimulate the Japanese economy with monetary easing and the related depreciation of the Yen. These efforts alone, without the type of economic reform the TPP will lead to, are unlikely to produce long-term improvements in Japan’s growth prospects.

( Thailand, Indonesia , Burma and India joining the group will complete the picture)

[SSridhar]

Xi's Russia Visit will be a Landmark - China Daily

Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Russia on March 22. By all accounts, his visit will boost Russia-China cooperation and partnership.

Xi's visit to Russia will be a landmark, because it will be the first country he travels to after becoming president. His decision to visit Russia also reflects the high mutual regard and confidence the leaders of the two countries have. And in more ways than one, the importance accorded to Russia by Xi mirrors the stance of Russian leaders toward China.

Signed recently by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian foreign policy concept lays special emphasis on good-neighborliness, friendship and all-sided cooperation with China. The historical Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, signed between Russia and China on July 16, 2001, plays a significant role in international relations for the two countries.

Built through mutual efforts, the Russian-Chinese friendship and cooperation serve the vital interests of the two countries, creating favorable conditions for peaceful development and ensuring mutual security, territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Another feature of Sino-Russian relations is that neither side pursues an expansionist agenda or targets another country. Sino-Russian good-neighborly relations have become a visible example of true friendly coexistence, cooperation and close interaction between countries with different social systems. There is, thus, no reason for any one to allege that Sino-Russian partnership and interaction are targeted at the United States or any other country. On the contrary, the efforts Russia and China have made to resolve regional and international issues demonstrate their preparedness for interaction and cooperation with the US and other countries.

US Secretary of State John Kerry's remark that the strategy to strengthen Washington's presence in Asia is not aimed at containing China (thus disavowing the statements made by his predecessor Hillary Clinton) did not go unnoticed either in China or Russia. But only time will tell whether Kerry's remark reflects a positive change in US policy or whether it signifies a shift in its strategy to contain China.

Neither a China-US alliance, as promoted by some, nor getting involved in an alliance-type game will help China gain strategic advantage, because the US' main objective has been and will be to contain China by every possible means. The same goal has prompted the US official propaganda machinery to try and sow the seeds of discord between China and its neighbors - from Russia and Vietnam to India and Japan - and even Iran.

It would be a mistake to measure the role and importance of Russian-Chinese comprehensive interaction and partnership only in terms of trade and economic cooperation. Quite often, political interaction between two countries aimed at protecting their vital national interests is more valuable than increasing the volume of bilateral trade.

Top Russian and Chinese leaders have in the recent past discussed the need to further strengthen Russian-Chinese strategic interaction and partnership. The two countries do still have weak links in their comprehensive cooperation, which sometimes create difficulties and lead to frictions. But it should not be forgotten that the process of normalization and elevation of Sino-Russian relations took place within a short time, which was preceded by more than 20 years of complex, dramatic events.

Therefore, the two countries' efforts have been mainly aimed at boosting mutual confidence not only at the highest level, but also between their people, especially youths.

The insufficient knowledge both countries have about each other's real situations and lack of total understanding about their mutual benefit make it necessary for the two sides to expand their cooperation, and increase their contacts, trade, and people-to-people and cultural exchanges.

Russia is certainly interested in a practical and mutually beneficial partnership with China for joint large-scale projects aimed at developing its Siberian and Far Eastern regions. The two countries could jointly work in the fields of energy, space, transport, education, science and technology. Russia and China both have historical "cushion-stocks" and real experience in these fields, and much will depend on their political will to make their joint efforts a success.

Xi's scheduled visit to Russia and his meeting with Putin are bound to intensify Russian-Chinese cooperation and take it to a new level, as well as consolidate the friendship and deepen the understanding between the two nations.

[SSridhar]

Russia Unmoved by US Missile Shift - Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu
To be read in conjunction with the above post.

Russian experts said the U.S. plans to set up additional 14 missile interceptors on its Pacific Coast on top of 30 interceptors already deployed in Alaska and California were really aimed at China, not North Korea.

“The missile defences the U.S. is building in the Pacific will be capable of intercepting a retaliatory strike from China, which has 50 to 75 intercontinental ballistic missiles,” said Academician Sergei Rogov of the Institute of U.S. and Canada.

The fact that Moscow articulated its strong objections to the U.S. missile defence “pivot” to Asia two days ahead of a visit by new Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia is another indication of stronger political bonds between the two countries.

[Sushupti]