Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ashkrishna · Post by **ashkrishna** » 22 Mar 2013 11:49

@Hari Seldon - That may not be possible. There is real pressure from the D4 to dilute NM's appointment with someone else like Sivraj or Raman Singh.

Yogesh · Post by **Yogesh** » 22 Mar 2013 14:40

ashkrishna wrote:Here's some insider info. I believe it has some legitimacy, but I don't expect others to do the same. Anyway, here goes:

1. Modi will be inducted into the parliamentary committee by this weekend.
2. It is likely that he will be the sole inductee.
3. Modi will most likely contest from UP. Some whispers going around that Rajasthan is also likely.
4. The internal projections are 17-25 seats in UP. Huge communal polarization happening there at the moment. Modi in UP will send every body into absolute panic, which is not a bad thing.
5. The internal projections put the performance at 160-175.

IMHO in UP situation is very delicate- a swing of 4-5% in a party's favor would do wonders

this link on several assembly elsction & vote share would give a good idea of situation http://post.jagran.com/With-highest-tal ... 1331456004

Also note that SP won with such margin becasue at village levels even many hard core BJP supporters also tactically voted to SP candidates (lesser evils you know

) to let BSP candidate test resounding defeat- thanks to all the discrimintating laws (based on caste..) - IMO this led good polarization against BSP.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 22 Mar 2013 17:05

ashkrishna wrote:Here's some insider info. I believe it has some legitimacy, but I don't expect others to do the same. Anyway, here goes:

1. Modi will be inducted into the parliamentary committee by this weekend.
2. It is likely that he will be the sole inductee.
3. Modi will most likely contest from UP. Some whispers going around that Rajasthan is also likely.
4. The internal projections are 17-25 seats in UP. Huge communal polarization happening there at the moment. Modi in UP will send every body into absolute panic, which is not a bad thing.
5. The internal projections put the performance at 160-175.

Being appointed to the Parliamentary board is good but he will be heavily out-numbered by his rivals there. Being the Chairman of the National Campaign Committee would be necessary.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 22 Mar 2013 17:09

K'taka polls: BJP to invite Narendra Modi for campaign - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/ktaka ... /1091908/0

This is a trap. I think Modi should refuse unless he is given the authority to manage relations with Yeddy and choose candidates.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Mar 2013 17:15

With NaMo and an small drive to consolidate Hindu votes and Bramins going back to BJP NDA fortunes in UP will look very bright. UPA looks like losing and carry 10 years of misrule and huge corruption baggage. Last time they swept urban/City MP seats. This time it is most unlikely. They rule only one big state - AP along and Mah with NCP. Rest of major states only Rajasthan is there. Other than Maha I am sure they will lost heavyly in other two states. AP losses will be stagaring to INC now they have 32 and if they get two digit no it will be a great achivement. UPA also will lose 18 seats of DMK in TN and may gain something in Karnataka but Karnataka has a history of voting difforently in state and Loksabha elections. So Karnataka may not be a lost cause for NDA. In none of the BJP rules big states INC is looking like it will improve its seat tally. In fact in none of the states except it can home to improve on its seats. Its 205 seats is the peak they could manage. Now it has to defend the Peak performence. It controlled UP seats through CBI and slowly the power of public blackmail and how far this drama goes on we do not know.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Mar 2013 17:17

NaMo is being dragged into a a very big trap called Karnataka. But knowing a thing as trap is the first step to avoid it.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Mar 2013 17:51

Pranav wrote:K'taka polls: BJP to invite Narendra Modi for campaign - http://www.indianexpress.com/news/ktaka ... /1091908/0

This is a trap. I think Modi should refuse unless he is given the authority to manage relations with Yeddy and choose candidates.

I agree. If BJP does not win in Karnataka, then the whole blame would be put on NaMo.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Mar 2013 17:56

In UP, BJP would have to align with one other party. It will most probably be BSP.

In WB, Muslims will not vote Mamata simply because they know that the Commies will surely oppose BJP, but one can't say the same thing about Mamata, so Mamata should not pander to Muslim votes, because she is not going to get any, and if she thinks she can't win without the Muslims, then she has got a real problem due to NaMo.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 22 Mar 2013 18:07

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Mar 2013 18:38

RajeshA wrote:In UP, BJP would have to align with one other party. It will most probably be BSP.

In WB, Muslims will not vote Mamata simply because they know that the Commies will surely oppose BJP, but one can't say the same thing about Mamata, so Mamata should not pander to Muslim votes, because she is not going to get any, and if she thinks she can't win without the Muslims, then she has got a real problem due to NaMo.

Mamata won 30% of the Muslim vote. She is unlikely to align with the BJP and let the CPI-M win.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Mar 2013 18:57

There is some 25% muslim vote there in WB and huge commie vote bank in Hindus. So Mamatha has to cater for Muslim votes if she wants to retain. Remember WB still got a formidable leftist media/opinion making establishment which will be helped by national leftist media/opinion maker establihment. So fighting left in WB is no easy task.

Why BSP is join with BJP??? Mayavathi is is not going to gain anything by that. As bad and unreliable as any other so called "allies" she is also sometimes into Muslim vote catching. Therefore BJP should go alone and try to win as much as possible in UP. With serious effort BJP can make some good number of seats. Handsome national seats tally of BJP will make lot of people including BSP, TDP to support BJP.

INC will try for third front drama to ensure BJP is stopped. 3rd front is the major worry.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Mar 2013 19:00

This is election analysis thread so kindly take the ronadhona elsewhere. Articles about the Muslim vote bank were there even in the 90s about how "200 million" Muslims are going to stop the communal forces written by people with Hindu names. The Tehelka article is along the same lines. Tehelka is a INC pamphlet. That didn't stop the NDA from winning elections. The Muslim vote is concentrated in certain areas of India. So although it has increased as a percentage from 2001 (he is getting the numbers from his musharraf as the census results on religion are not out) they really cannot stop a wave in favor of NDA if there is one. The issue is not the increasing Muslim vote. At 14-15% they cannot really hope to run India. The issue is the lack of direction in the Hindu vote. So Tehelka/INC/sec-left strategy is to keep the Hindu vote divided while consolidating the Muslim vote. That is their only hope of retain power in 80% Hindu majority country but still follow anti-Hindu policies and collaborate with anti-Hindu forces.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Mar 2013 19:39

lok sabha seats 540

NDA target seats
Gujarat 26
MP 29
CH 11
RJ 25
PJ 13
MH 48 (if in alliance with MNS)
UK 5
HP 4
KT 28
GOA 2
DELHI 7
DD 2
CH 1
JH 14 (may need alliance)
Total 214

Additional states
BH 40 (provided alliance with Nitish stays)
Total 254

Tough states
UP 80
HY 10 (suitable alliance partner)
AS 14 (suitable alliance partner)
Total 358

Alliance states
TN 39
AP 42
OS 21
Total 470

Potential allies
SK 1
AP 2
NE 2
Total 475

Bonus states
J&K 3
Total 478

NDA has to win 271 of these seats.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Mar 2013 19:50

Narayana Rao wrote:There is some 25% muslim vote there in WB and huge commie vote bank in Hindus. So Mamatha has to cater for Muslim votes if she wants to retain. Remember WB still got a formidable leftist media/opinion making establishment which will be helped by national leftist media/opinion maker establihment. So fighting left in WB is no easy task.

Why BSP is join with BJP??? Mayavathi is is not going to gain anything by that. As bad and unreliable as any other so called "allies" she is also sometimes into Muslim vote catching. Therefore BJP should go alone and try to win as much as possible in UP. With serious effort BJP can make some good number of seats. Handsome national seats tally of BJP will make lot of people including BSP, TDP to support BJP.

INC will try for third front drama to ensure BJP is stopped. 3rd front is the major worry.

In WB, unless the left vote bank erodes there is no point in Mamata aligning with BJP specially given that BJP gets only 5% of the vote. Unless Mamata proves a disaster (she is already showing signs that she may be as bad as the Marxists) or the voters desert the Communists like in the former Communist countries of Europe this is how the situation is going to be in the near future. The worst situation is to be like Kerala. The Marxists have been defeated but not disgraced yet. So WB should be seen in a context different from the rest of India.

UP situation can be improved if we get rid of Mulayam/Mayawati. I strongly believe that if the NDA comes to power they should divide the state as a resolution has already been passed in the assembly. This will erode the hold of Mayawati and Mulayam and at the same time help this region develop.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 22 Mar 2013 20:26

RajeshA wrote:In UP, BJP would have to align with one other party. It will most probably be BSP.

In WB, Muslims will not vote Mamata simply because they know that the Commies will surely oppose BJP, but one can't say the same thing about Mamata, so Mamata should not pander to Muslim votes, because she is not going to get any, and if she thinks she can't win without the Muslims, then she has got a real problem due to NaMo.

Why would Maya support BJP? What can the BJP give Maya that will force her to support it.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 22 Mar 2013 20:34

Only way forward for BJP in UP is non yadva BCs +FCs + non jatav SC. But to wean away non yadva BCs from SP and BsP Bjp will have to project a BC leader for cm. and you can guess who wouldn't want it to happen.
Time when BCs and SCs used to accept FCs as their leader is over in UP.

ashkrishna · Post by **ashkrishna** » 22 Mar 2013 20:37

Cong has 206. It will lose 8 in TN quite easily. Around 15 in AP. That approx 23 already gone. UP, I am not too sure. It has 20+ now, how much will get this time? Any guesses?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Mar 2013 20:44

Pratyush wrote:
RajeshA wrote:In UP, BJP would have to align with one other party. It will most probably be BSP.

In WB, Muslims will not vote Mamata simply because they know that the Commies will surely oppose BJP, but one can't say the same thing about Mamata, so Mamata should not pander to Muslim votes, because she is not going to get any, and if she thinks she can't win without the Muslims, then she has got a real problem due to NaMo.
Why would Maya support BJP? What can the BJP give Maya that will force her to support it.

Well obviously BJP too has supporters in UP. So if there are seat adjustments among the two and the supporters of one support the other in the other's constituencies, then both would win.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2013 20:50

Supratik wrote: In WB, unless the left vote bank erodes there is no point in Mamata aligning with BJP specially given that BJP gets only 5% of the vote. .

Umm

Though the BJP could win a single seat in the Lok Sabha election in 2009, the party's vote share ranged between 13 to 38 per cent in different constituencies in North Bengal. In Jalpaiguri's Madarihat constituency, the BJP had got 38 per cent votes.

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/wb-p ... 34765.html

There is always more than what the perception is. India is rising, it needs a spark.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 22 Mar 2013 22:38

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Mar 2013 22:55

Sanku wrote:Though the BJP could win a single seat in the Lok Sabha election in 2009, the party's vote share ranged between 13 to 38 per cent in different constituencies in North Bengal. In Jalpaiguri's Madarihat constituency, the BJP had got 38 per cent votes.

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/wb-p ... 34765.html

There is always more than what the perception is. India is rising, it needs a spark.

Sanku, the BJP also did well in the assembly elections in 7-8 constituencies in North Bengal. But that is with support from GNLF. The BJP supports both Gorkhaland and Kamtapur which are demands in the north. But we are talking about 290+ constituencies. Right now Mamata gains nothing by aligning with BJP. There is some good sign in the recent by-polls. Although, the left won one INC seat its vote percentage has gone down by 12%. But it is too early to say what happens in future. The panchayat elections will give some pointers. If the left disintegrates then there is scope for other parties. The Sangh is non-existent in Bengal. So the best bet for Mamata is to go it alone or go with INC. Unless she turns out to be a total disaster and all Bengalies dump her.

Rajesh, Sushupti is right. The only way you can win UP is to combine FC, non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav-SC. This is the formula that is being used by NDA in Bihar. However, the FCs of UP still haven't realized that they are a minority. The OBCs have the numbers. So you really need a good BC leader unless you have someone like Vajpayee who can take everyone along. Divide the state and you will see good results. The INC will do reasonably well in UP as the Muslim strategy is to vote INC in LS elections and SP/BSP in the assembly.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Mar 2013 23:18

Sanku wrote:
Supratik wrote: In WB, unless the left vote bank erodes there is no point in Mamata aligning with BJP specially given that BJP gets only 5% of the vote. .
Umm

Though the BJP could win a single seat in the Lok Sabha election in 2009, the party's vote share ranged between 13 to 38 per cent in different constituencies in North Bengal. In Jalpaiguri's Madarihat constituency, the BJP had got 38 per cent votes.
Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/wb-p ... 34765.html

There is always more than what the perception is. India is rising, it needs a spark.

It is a pure gridlock.

Bottomline is that BJP will win a couple of seats in a wave situation in WB and nothing beyond that. If it can make a win or lose situation to Mamta then it can negotiate a coalition. However, in a coalition Mamta will lose a substantial Muslim vote. In the end here are the two scenarios:
(1) If it goes on its own Left will win
(2) If it goes with Mamta then Left and/or INC will win

All three are deep dirt in that state. Actually three Laloos. Hence it is better for BJP to go and compete with full vigor and lose. It is better to see Left win instead of any chance to INC and also it is good if Left and Mamta split the seats.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 22 Mar 2013 23:31

OBC vote (Lodh) + BC vote (Kurmis etc-yadavs) + FC vote (- self seakers, like dynasty holdouts and Amar Singh chamchas) + Non Jatav SC vote (like Khatiks/malhars etc) under a BC/OBC leader is time tested and a very successful formula for BJP. This worked all through out 1990s (under Kalyan), many state and national elections were successfully won under that, and was the single most reason for NDA govt. Vinash Kale Viprith Budhi, ABV along with RS/Tandon etc wanted KS removed and teach him a lesson, BJP lost UP and NDA lost Delhi.
The same formula can work now under another Lodh Leader (Uma Bharti), only if the D4 equivalent in UP allow that.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 22 Mar 2013 23:32

In WB bara bajar and dum dum (along with Purulia) are some seats, some in North with help of Gorkha land, BJP can notch 4-5 seats on its own on a lucky day. They should go for that.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Mar 2013 23:47

Muppalla wrote:
It is a pure gridlock.

Bottomline is that BJP will win a couple of seats in a wave situation in WB and nothing beyond that. If it can make a win or lose situation to Mamta then it can negotiate a coalition. However, in a coalition Mamta will lose a substantial Muslim vote. In the end here are the two scenarios:
(1) If it goes on its own Left will win
(2) If it goes with Mamta then Left and/or INC will win

All three are deep dirt in that state. Actually three Laloos. Hence it is better for BJP to go and compete with full vigor and lose. It is better to see Left win instead of any chance to INC and also it is good if Left and Mamta split the seats.

Most non-left Bengalies would rather have the INC win than the left win. The left is a bigger disaster than the INC. At least the INC has some record of governance in other parts of India. Prior to BB there was nothing but Communist propaganda. So the gridlock cannot be broken till the left vote bank remains and there is little scope for other parties. The greatest fear is for Mamata to fail and for the left to come back using the TINA factor.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 Mar 2013 00:05

Plus the INC may not be pro-Hindu but it did liberate Bd which saved the community from extinction. The left OTOH is anti-Hindu. I think non-left Bengalies would rather choose the lesser evil. I won't be surprised if many people who may want to give the BJP a chance would actually vote TMC-INC to keep the left out.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 23 Mar 2013 00:19

Atri wrote:
varunkumar wrote:Why are there so many Israeli ex-soldiers in India?
They may have to leave Israel in coming times. Much though I hate the prospects of that happening, I think it might be one of the viable futures. India is the only country where they think they might be welcome (at least not unwelcome). This growing chabad houses and enclaves everywhere is reminding me of the zionist movement in 1920s and 30s - The way they systematically bought land in British Palestine to eventually carve out Israel. It might be the repeat of similar tactic.

But is GOI strong enough (or would be strong enough in next 2 decades) to avoid this from happening. OR it might be a welcome move to get their help in addressing other problems which might show up in their full potential then.

Bhaarata has to be careful. This is for sure.

Atri ji a friend told me that further up from Dharamsala and before Naddi there is a village which is almost completely taken over by israelis, even the signboards, the menus in hotels are in hebrew......... yes they seem to be settling big time here.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 Mar 2013 00:23

The Israelis are facing demographic competition in Israel itself. Why would they want to occupy India? They don't have the numbers.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 23 Mar 2013 00:40

Plus the INC may not be pro-Hindu but it did liberate Bd which saved the community from extinction.

That was during Indira Gandhi's time. The situation is much different now. Even back then, the biggest reason was that we couldn't handle the rapidly growing number of refugee's, more than concern for Hindus.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 Mar 2013 00:42

Also for all non-Bengalies (FYI) the Communists supported the Pakistan movement on the basis of "right to self-determination", opposed IGs intervention in Bd, settled Bdeshis in WB saying they were economic migrants, obliterated the expulsion of Hindus from Bd from public memory, propagated Communism in academia, justified the expulsion of Hindus, murder, rape of women and appropriation of land in Bd by saying that the Hindus were occupying land and were zamindars and were oppressing/were prejudiced against Muslims (i.e. their treatment was justified).

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 Mar 2013 00:44

nachiket wrote: That was during Indira Gandhi's time. The situation is much different now. Even back then, the biggest reason was that we couldn't handle the rapidly growing number of refugee's, more than concern for Hindus.

Even then the INC and Communists are in different league. See above post. The INC for all its fault did nothing of the sort.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 23 Mar 2013 02:24

fanne wrote:OBC vote (Lodh) + BC vote (Kurmis etc-yadavs) + FC vote (- self seakers, like dynasty holdouts and Amar Singh chamchas) + Non Jatav SC vote (like Khatiks/malhars etc) under a BC/OBC leader is time tested and a very successful formula for BJP. This worked all through out 1990s (under Kalyan), many state and national elections were successfully won under that, and was the single most reason for NDA govt. Vinash Kale Viprith Budhi, ABV along with RS/Tandon etc wanted KS removed and teach him a lesson, BJP lost UP and NDA lost Delhi.
The same formula can work now under another Lodh Leader (Uma Bharti), only if the D4 equivalent in UP allow that.

This is the only way to counter tactical voting by Muslims . Once they aren`t sure which party is in best position to defeat BJP they are like headless chicken resulting into massive split in Muslim vote. At the moment it`s like India-Pak one day matches of late 80s. Result is well known even before match starts.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Mar 2013 03:47

Here is the baseline based on various surveys and trends and real elections. Let us see if what Modi can change this and how as the time.

Code: Select all

              | Total |  BJP |  INC |                   NDA                     |                 UPA                   |      Dalals     |  Unaligned      |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
              |       |      |      | BJD SAD MNS RPI INLD JD(U) AGP Bodo ADMK  | NC JD(S) NCP NPF DMK MIM SP RJD Jagan | RLD TRS KJP JMM | CPI TDP BSP TMC |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
ANDHRA        |    42 |    0 |   10 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   1   0   0    12 |   0   7   0   0 |   0  12   0   0 |
ARUNACHAL     |     2 |    0 |    2 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
ASSAM         |    14 |    1 |    9 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    2    2    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
BIHAR         |    40 |   18 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0    19    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   3     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
GOA           |     2 |    2 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
GUJARAT       |    26 |   18 |    8 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
HARYANA       |    10 |    1 |    6 |   0  0   0   0   3     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
HIMACHAL      |     4 |    2 |    2 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
J&K           |     6 |    0 |    2 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  4   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
KARNATAKA     |    28 |   10 |   15 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   2    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   1   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
KERALA        |    20 |    0 |   12 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   8   0   0   0 |
MP            |    29 |   25 |    4 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
MAHARASHTRA   |    48 |   14 |   12 |   0  0  12   1   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    9   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
Manipur       |     2 |    0 |    2 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
Meghalaya     |     2 |    0 |    2 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
NAGALAND      |     2 |    0 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   2   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
ORISSA        |    21 |    0 |    3 |  17  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   1   0   0   0 |
PUNJAB        |    13 |    3 |    3 |   0  7   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
RAJASTHAN     |    25 |   19 |    6 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
TAMIL-NADU    |    39 |    0 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0   32   |  0   0    0   0   7   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
UP            |    80 |   12 |   10 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0  32   0     0 |   3   0   0   0 |   0   0  23   0 |
Bengal        |    42 |    0 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |  16   0   0  26 |
CHHATTISGARH  |    11 |    9 |    2 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
JHARKHAND     |    14 |    6 |    6 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   2 |   0   0   0   0 |
UTTARANCHAL   |     5 |    4 |    1 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
DELHI         |     7 |    2 |    5 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
ANDAMAN       |     1 |    0 |    1 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
CHANDIGARH    |     1 |    1 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
DAMAN-DIU     |     2 |    1 |    1 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
LAKSHADWEEP   |     1 |    0 |    1 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
PONDICHERRY   |     1 |    0 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    1   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
Tripura       |     2 |    0 |    0 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   2   0   0   0 |
Mizoram       |     1 |    0 |    1 |   0  0   0   0   0     0    0    0    0   |  0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0     0 |   0   0   0   0 |   0   0   0   0 |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL         |   543 |  148 |  126 |  17  7  12   1   3    19    2    2   33   |  4   2    9   2   7   1  32   3    12 |   3   7   1   2 |  27  12  23  26 |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NDA           |   244 |
UPA           |   198 |
Non alinged   |    88 |
Dalals        |    13 |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Total         |   543 |
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Mar 2013 04:08

^ so he need to push the wonder button to get
Bihar +10
Guj +5
UP +20

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 23 Mar 2013 05:37

Muppalla wrote:Here is the baseline based on various surveys and trends and real elections. Let us see if what Modi can change this and how as the time.
...

So in Maharastra, it is counted as MNS + SS or for some reason SS is not included in the table at all?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 23 Mar 2013 05:53

From this list what can go in BJP favor (or improve without being too optimistic) - Guj +3, Ka +2 (if they get Yeddi add another 2), MP +1, (Naga 1 seat should be at least allies), Rajasthan +3, UP +15, W.B. =+1, CHATTISGARH =+1, Jharkhand =+2, Delhi +2, Total within Reasons = 30 seats, wave like will add few more seats (+15).
Where things can go wrong = Bihar -6, Maha -3, Delhi -1, jh -1 = -11.
If there is no EVM Magic, NDA has a chance.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Mar 2013 06:11

NM himself in his Talkatora speech clearly laid out the roadmap when he said (paraphrasing) "INC is the enemy and every opponent of INC is an (unwitting?) friend." He clearly IDed dooming INC numbers as top priority. Even CPIM gaining seats at INC expense was OK in his book, seemed like.

First priority has to be to reduce INC footprint only. "Tacit Understandings" with Naveen, Yeddy, Soren, Raj T maybe even Mamta, Pawar and Nitish cannot be that far-fetched once NM takes over chairmanship of the election campaign committee later this month (post Holi is the rumour).

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 23 Mar 2013 08:12

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... st-party-/
Survey predicts TDP as single largest party

In an interesting survey commissioned by a Congress MP hailing from Telangana, it was reported that TDP may win close to 125 seats, followed by YSRCP (79), TRS(42), Congress (32) and rest by others in the event of a mid-term poll. This data is being considered very close to the actual as it is done in a very authentic way. The Congress MP’s were heard discussing in the parliament that inspite of many challenges; TDP is still going strong in the state emerging as the single largest party. When a Jagan loyalist MP tried to dismiss such things by saying that YSRCP will sweep the state winning 200 seats, the MP’s countered him saying that things are not smooth for Jagan in the state. This is quite unlike the wave seen during by polls, equally admitting that Congress is fading away drastically from the state’s political scenario. The only way things can change is if Jagan manages to come out of jail by April or May. The other aspect is also about ensuring the roots of TRS are also cut so that Telangana dominance can be got.

Does any one believe this? I don't. Jagan the crook will win. AP is lost for another 20 years.

I for one can't believe that CON party can win 8 MP seats in AP. They destroyed AP totally in 10 years.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 23 Mar 2013 11:09

Take it FWIW.
Grapevine is that pramod muthalik of Sri Rama sene "fame" might be contesting assembly elections on bjp ticket. Pontiff of udupi pejawara mutt Sri Vishweshara Teerth Swamyji and uma bharathi are discussing this with rss on this. The reason is sri rama sene has a good organisational strength in 3-4 districts esp in north karnataka.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 23 Mar 2013 11:14

Gunjur wrote:The reason is sri rama sene has a good organisational strength in 3-4 districts esp in north karnataka.

This was reported in The Hindu as well. The extra advantage for BJP is that it is now giving a good stick for the "seculars" to beat it. Sri Ram Sene would now be tagged with BJP/RSS even more, and pilloried

.