Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 25 Mar 2013 22:38

Sangh committed suicide in Orissa with kandhamal. Otherwise 6-7 of those 21 MP seats for BJP was a given.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 25 Mar 2013 22:42

Supratik wrote:Sangh committed suicide in Orissa with kandhamal. Otherwise 6-7 of those 21 MP seats for BJP was a given.

Kandhamal was unfortunate, but if you see, those 6-7 seats were finally not important since BJP was not important anyway. Kandhmal was another Godhara after all.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 25 Mar 2013 22:44

@ramki_xlri 19s
Mulayam to withdraw support to UPA. Central ministers reaching out to Mamata and Nitish Kumar for support.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 25 Mar 2013 23:05

Supratik wrote:Sangh committed suicide in Orissa with kandhamal. Otherwise 6-7 of those 21 MP seats for BJP was a given.

This gets the silly post YTD 2013 award.

Sri Lakshmanananda was brutally murdered by Christian instigated Maoist groups. Sangh parivar agitated against this brazen attack.

The EJ lobby tried to spoil the environment by using fake rape cases, which later were proved to be fake.

This was a Christian-Godhra; that went unpunished either by society or by govt.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Mar 2013 00:11

http://politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=155

Analysis on KTAKA equations...

If Lingayats think smart and vote en-mass either to KJP or BJP, they will have 90 Lingayat MLAs.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 26 Mar 2013 00:20

RamaY wrote:
This gets the silly post YTD 2013 award.

Sri Lakshmanananda was brutally murdered by Christian instigated Maoist groups. Sangh parivar agitated against this brazen attack.

The EJ lobby tried to spoil the environment by using fake rape cases, which later were proved to be fake.

This was a Christian-Godhra; that went unpunished either by society or by govt.

Well I disagree. Burning 63 people including women and children cannot be equated with murder of a single person. There were better ways to do it specially since they were in government. BTW, the actual culprits are still out there. But it damaged the years of hard work put in Orissa. At one point the BJP and BJD were neck to neck as far as seats were concerned. Now they can't even win a few.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Mar 2013 00:26

Supratik wrote:
RamaY wrote:
This gets the silly post YTD 2013 award.

Sri Lakshmanananda was brutally murdered by Christian instigated Maoist groups. Sangh parivar agitated against this brazen attack.

The EJ lobby tried to spoil the environment by using fake rape cases, which later were proved to be fake.

This was a Christian-Godhra; that went unpunished either by society or by govt.
Well I disagree. Burning 63 people including women and children cannot be equated with murder of a single person. There were better ways to do it specially since they were in government. BTW, the actual culprits are still out there. But it damaged the years of hard work put in Orissa. At one point the BJP and BJD were neck to neck as far as seats were concerned. Now they can't even win a few.

First we need to get the facts right.

Not 63 but (at least) 38 people were killed in post-murder riots. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_ ... 8_violence

I cant say much if you say such organized murders can be compensated by hanging the guy who pulled the trigger.

BJD is in power without BJP support for past 5 years. What happened to the culprits of sri Lakshmanananda's killers?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 26 Mar 2013 00:39

I am talking about Sabarmati express burnings. It is 58 according to wiki and not 63. Guj incident cannot be compared with Orissa although the latter was heinous too but burning innocent women and children is in different league.

About the culprits that is exactly my point. Did it help bring to book the Swami's murderers? If they had been in Govt. they could have brought enormous pressure on Naveen Pattnaik. If they couldn't then they did not deserve to be in Govt.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Mar 2013 06:01

muraliravi wrote:
SwamyG wrote:One of my friends who used to be associated with Karnataka BJP at a lower level (vague enough ), is all sad and hopeless. He does not see BJP winning in 2014. Of course he is one person was at a low level, who thinks INC has better grass-roots organization than BJP. He is aghast and sad, but not surprised that MH which is facing drought like KA does not get the same media attention as KA. People still vote on caste lines, he has connections with AP crowd as well.

In all people vote for their caste leaders, and local leaders/dada. INC is betting on that I guess.
No offence sir, but it means nothing

Do you think any of things we post here, means anything? We post here what we read, see or hear. And discuss about it. One liners such as yours is obvious, what do you think that I give the same weight to my friend (who I mention was a low level) would be the same as what NaMo or anyone else said?

Or will it mean something, only if it is all in sync with what we already think, huh? I do not take offence, I just am surprised at your kind of thinking.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Mar 2013 06:08

anchal wrote:In addition to that, the moment Behenji starts discovering 'secularism' by criticizing Modi; one would know which way the wind is blowing. So far that is not happening because 1. Behenji feels secure in her vote bank and sees no chances of defection 1. she is in wait-watch mode. If NaMo indeed becomes a large force enough to form the government; she would be willing to switch sides. Either way, LS elections in UP are always contested differently from Assembly ones; Mulayam is using calculator using MLA numbers to arrive at his MPs. He knows his time is running out faster. But then one would say; why does he not want to bring down UPA? The reason is what if he withdraws support from UPA and it survives using CBI'S 'outside support'. Hell hath the fury of THE WOMAN scorned!

All upanetas, who have no chance of becoming a PM, are in wait mode. Bluntly put, they are hyenas - allowing two elephants to fight out, once they sense an elephant weakening, they will just gang up killing the elephant.

All these upanetas will align with the party/leader who will keep these upanetas happy in their regions. Only a bold/foolish upaneta will reveal his/her cards right now.

On top of it INC controls the CBI, so nobody wants investigations like the ones on Karunanidhi family

. INC knows to hit where it hurts, at the right time.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 26 Mar 2013 07:12

Backup for MSY

Centre likely to grant Bihar 'backward' status soon

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 206650.cms

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 26 Mar 2013 07:36

An end in sight?

It is not that the government cannot survive the bolt that came out of a clear blue sky from Chennai last week. With the help of Mulayam, Mayawati and perhaps even Mamata, it probably can hobble along till 2014, although relying on these three is so risky that furtive confabulation are already taking place to discuss the future. The more times senior ministers go on television to assure us that the government is 'stable' the more it is beginning to sound as if they are confirming that old journalist adage: never believe a rumour till it is officially denied.

The real question is whether it is in India's interest for the Sonia-Manmohan government to survive a full term. Do we really deserve another year of a government that is so feeble, dithering and hopeless that senior leaders claim not to know why the CBI raided Stalin's house two days after the DMK withdrew support? In my ever humble opinion we most certainly do not need such a government. The sooner the general election comes the better for India.

Much has been written about this government's ruinous economic polices that halved the growth rate and weakened the rupee and there is little more that I can add. So this week, I would like to concentrate on the political damage done since 2009. It started almost from day one. No sooner did Dr Manmohan Singh take office as prime minister for the second time than the political grapevine began to buzz with stories of how Rahul Gandhi would be taking over in 2012.

Those responsible for spreading these stories added that the only reason why he had not claimed his political inheritance immediately was because he wanted to prove he was a 'real leader' by winning elections in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. When this did not happen he virtually withdrew from public life but by then it was clear to everyone that the prime minister was subordinate to the Congress president and her son. It will take a very strong leader to repair the damage done to this most important office in a proper parliamentary democracy.

The truth is we have not been a proper parliamentary democracy for the past four years. We went back to the kind of democratic feudalism that prevailed in the times of Indira Gandhi. Just like in those times when Mrs Gandhi's powerful stenographers became more important than cabinet ministers, we have seen the emergence of kitchen cabinets around the Congress president and her son. Sycophants, socialites and a noxious species of NGO types have ruled the roost while senior ministers have been reduced to courtiers. The only time they have shown evidence of a spine is when they have openly defied the prime minister's orders.

The worst aspect of the peculiar political formation that has governed India for the past four years has been a remarkable absence of accountability. The Prime Minister has almost never spoken to the media in his second term. Sonia Gandhi has never given an interview and neither has Rahul. Can you name another democratic country in which this contempt for accountability would be considered normal? I have thought about it and cannot. The damage done by this secretive genre of governance is so deep that whoever becomes the next prime minister will need to immediately institute a system of regular, televised conversations with the people and routine media briefings. Renouncing accountability is not an option that leaders can choose in a real democracy.

An open revolt against this distortion of democracy came when the likes of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev showed up in Delhi to demand accountability. One of the things they said repeatedly was that democracy cannot mean just holding elections every five years. Democracy has to mean that elected representatives remain accountable to the people all through the five years of their term. It was one of the few things they got right. If they had been more politically aware they would have realised that corruption was not the real issue but only a symptom of the real issue. Since they never managed to work that out, the movement and its political offshoot, the Aam Aadmi Party, have almost been forgotten. This does not take away from the damage done to democracy in the past four years by a government that is looking increasingly pathetic.

As I said at the beginning of this piece it may hobble along on wobbly crutches till 2014 but it would be a great pity if it did because India cannot afford to be governed any longer by leaders who believe they are not accountable. India cannot afford another year of being governed by a Durbar in Delhi. If you have guessed that I used that word purposely to promote my new book you would be right!

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 26 Mar 2013 09:55

Muppalla wrote:How other castes will align with TRS or TDP is to be seen.

Post-caste politics are the Modi's primary appeal. One should not underestimate its impact on the national psyche. It is an unifying force which draws its electorate from the vote-banks, be it Yadav, Brahmin, Reddy, Kapu or whatever. IOW, it shrinks the vote-bank vote size.

Know of anyone who supports Modi because of his caste?

If 2014 was going to be yet another vote-bank election, we would not be discussing Modi phenomenon.

The quote, Past performance is not an indication of future success, applies to 2014 elections all over India. 2014 is going to be a wave election, although the amplitude of the wave might vary from region to region.

AjayKK · Post by **AjayKK** » 26 Mar 2013 11:22

IMHO, BJD MP Bhartruhari Mahtab should not have openly discussed about supporting a NDA government. Unless, the benefits outweigh the risks, potential allies are only turning the gaze on them by publicly supporting Modi or NDA. Somebody in BJP opened a channel with Raja Bhaiya in UP and Raja Bhaiya got embroiled in a case. Chautala invited the jail term by going to the swearing in of Modi. Any relevant negotiator/ intermediary in BJD might go to jail or be accidented like Yerran Naidu.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Mar 2013 11:35

^^^+1 AjayKK.

The Choutala verdict always seemed fishy to me only. EVen as I fully expected the termites to start biting with dirty tricks, this one is a jolt.

vina · Post by **vina** » 26 Mar 2013 11:37

Hmm. Looks like Nitish is all set to dump the NDA and jump into bed with the Congress. Yup. with that, he can wipe out the "secular" Lalloo once and for all, reel in the Congress as a rump/pliant support base.

The BJP is losing big time on it. It does not have enough votes to win Bihar, will come a poor second after Nitish consolidates the "secular" (short hand for Muslim + Backward caste votes) and become the king maker, in return for major sops. With the sops in hand, he can have a vested interest in having elections late to allow time for all that spending to percolate on the ground.

Smart politics by Nitish. The BJD and JDS and TDP walking out of the NDA will wound it severely . If Kangress can get it's act together in UP somehow (Mayawati & Congress alliance ?), they will be back in power in 2013 /14 . In TN, the road is open to them now to dump the DMK and ally with Amma who I am sure will show them the birdie (with a decimated DMK, split into Beautiful Mountain and Mr Steel, she wont need the Kangress and will sweep TN), in KA, BJP will self destruct , allowing Kangress to sweep KA (if the local elections are any indication), AP, again TRS is available , TDP is decimated anyways.. MH, Kangress has a fighting chance because of MNS/SS split . Bengal is a write off, Kerala is sort of iffy. So interesting times. Still, Kangress is going to come back close to 205 to 230 odd seats as the single largest party.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Mar 2013 12:01

ashashi wrote: The quote, Past performance is not an indication of future success, applies to 2014 elections all over India. 2014 is going to be a wave election, although the amplitude of the wave might vary from region to region.

There are absolutely no indications on the ground that there is anything live a wave. All elections so far, are all business as usual, even a month or so back.

Where is the wave?

What basis do we conclude that there is a wave? Folks should not put their hopes in waves or anything. Even a minor consolidation would be more than what can be hoped for.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 26 Mar 2013 13:38

vina wrote:Hmm. Looks like Nitish is all set to dump the NDA and jump into bed with the Congress. Yup. with that, he can wipe out the "secular" Lalloo once and for all, reel in the Congress as a rump/pliant support base.

The BJP is losing big time on it. It does not have enough votes to win Bihar, will come a poor second after Nitish consolidates the "secular" (short hand for Muslim + Backward caste votes) and become the king maker, in return for major sops. With the sops in hand, he can have a vested interest in having elections late to allow time for all that spending to percolate on the ground.

Why would Nitsh do that ?

1) Cong is UBER tainted right now... going with them would taint Nitish.
2) Going with Cong means Nitish CANNOT (possible ever) become PM, as that Cong would never allow that as Cong keeps that post for either Yuvraj or a Puppet. (If that is what he wants.)
3) He is already Bihar's CM... JDU+BJP have just won election.. why would he want to change status quo ?
4) What can Cong give him that can motivate him to take that huge risk of joining ?
(i) Give his "Secularism" certificate ?... he already have that.
(ii) Give his party some ministry ? That would destroy JDU's clean image.
(iii) Money or some status to the state ? He have more to gain if Central Gov does not give that to Bihar... as that would allow him to play victim card in next election. And blame all the failure of Bihar gov on Central gov.
5) Taking Nitish's support would mean Cong would permanently lose Bihar. Would Cong want that in exchange for staying few more months in power ?
6) Taking Nitish's support would mean Cong would permanently lose Congress's B team in Bihar=Lalu+Paswan.
7) JDU's politics have been anti-Cong... people would not immediately forget this volte face would. This would affect Nitish's image and Image is everything...

I am sure there are more reasons why that is a very bad idea for everyone.

Speaking of BJP, the party that "does not have enough votes to win Bihar"... have done EXTREMELY well in last elections. Better than Rahul+Lalu+Paswan's party... without any help from Media. BJP won close to 80-90% seats that they contested... so even if they wont win.. they can easily play spoilsport.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 26 Mar 2013 13:39

vina wrote:Hmm.....still, Kangress is going to come back close to 205 to 230 odd seats as the single largest party.

Why do you want Kangress back? Doesn't development or governance mean anything to you?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 26 Mar 2013 13:56

rajkumar wrote:
vina wrote:Hmm.....still, Kangress is going to come back close to 205 to 230 odd seats as the single largest party.
Why do you want Kangress back? Doesn't development or governance mean anything to you?

FYI, Vina is a big supporter of Kangress.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 26 Mar 2013 14:42

Virupaksha wrote:
FYI, Vina is a big supporter of Kangress.

Which is fine...but the reality of supporting a bunch of people who have done nothing and have simply looted the public treasury...is beyond me.

Anyone can see what the reality of UPA has been and to not change ones opinion or outlook is beyond me...also we are not talking about people who don't have access to information or don't understand.

Also UPA is not going to change, if it was a honest mistake I could understand but to support people who are only interested in looting you & the society at large is something that I don't understand.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Mar 2013 14:51

We are democracy and we should accept there will be certain die Hard INC supporters for their own reasons and beliefs, it takes different people to make this country.

Can't be like our leftists, XDTV types who believe only a good religious Hindu or BJP supporter is a dead one. The leftie JNU ding dings and TV channels have lot of praise for the Pakis but never for their brethren within the country, shows where thier heart lies

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Mar 2013 15:33

ashashi wrote:
Muppalla wrote:How other castes will align with TRS or TDP is to be seen.
Post-caste politics are the Modi's primary appeal. One should not underestimate its impact on the national psyche. It is an unifying force which draws its electorate from the vote-banks, be it Yadav, Brahmin, Reddy, Kapu or whatever. IOW, it shrinks the vote-bank vote size.

Know of anyone who supports Modi because of his caste?

If 2014 was going to be yet another vote-bank election, we would not be discussing Modi phenomenon.

The quote, Past performance is not an indication of future success, applies to 2014 elections all over India. 2014 is going to be a wave election, although the amplitude of the wave might vary from region to region.

There will never be such a thing called as people just vote to one party/person madly. Ground rules never change even in a wave. The only thing that happens in a wave is a swing percentage (4 to 5%) and this is only helpful if the calculations based on ground realities are done.

Take the case of just Telangana sentiment (another wave). TRS should sweep everything including panchayats, councils, corporation bodies or anything. The others who keep saying T word but just doing a lip service should not even get a rally. But it does not happen like that. In Warangal election, Jagan lost by only 800 votes.

Even in Gujarat, Modi lost about 10 to 15 seats due to Patel caste assertion.

BJP is trying to get TRS on board so that the non-congress votes are not split and can have about three to four seats from AP in its kitty.

Added later:
BJP + TRS = no split to T sentiment votes. A very good proposition for BJP to get few seats. Everything else from AP should be post poll arrangements.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2013 15:44

Published on Mar 26, 2013
'Politics of nation run by individuals than ideologies': Money Control

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prabhu Chawla, Editorial Director of New Indian Express spoke about the current political uncertainty and where things are headed in terms of an early election.

He said, "Politics of this country is being run by individuals these days, not by ideologies at all, because ideologies do not dictate any political decisions". According to Chawla, if government falls in May 2013, elections need to take place by September 2013.

Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview:

Q: What is your own opinion on Mulayam Singh Yadav? What he said yesterday and how he might behave in the next few months? Does he pull down the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government? Will he route for early election?

A: I must confess that I am neither a psephologist nor a soothsayer but I have been following political personalities for the past 35 years. I can only say one thing. Mulayam Singh Yadav will do what is suitable to him. Politics of this country is being run by individuals these days, not by ideologies at all, because ideologies do not dictate any political decision.

These are the few individuals like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, M Karunanidhi, who are now dictating the political agenda of this country. Mulayam Singh Yadav has convinced himself -- as what I have been told by his close associate -- that early election is good for his party if he wants to be relevant, because he cannot lose Uttar Pradesh (UP) government for the next four years.

His party has been in power for one year, so UP is safe in his pocket. He wants to have some share in the central pie. Basically he can have the share in the central pie only if he gets more seats and he gets into the central government on his own terms.

If he feels the Congress party is a liability in Uttar Pradesh then he will definitely pull down the government as early as possible.

Elections are due early next year or later this year if I can read the writing on the wall what is happening in Lucknow. The father, son and the brother are all meeting together today in their own village where they will decide the future strategy, what they are going to do.

His meeting with Sharad Pawar, which has been underreported is much more revealing than anything else. What did they discuss? None of them have spoken about Sharad Pawar and Mulayam Singh Yadav's meeting. Mulayam Singh Yadav is after the Congress Party, so is the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Both of them think that Congress is a liability. It is better to have some kind of a third front alternative that can dictate the future Prime Minister (PM) of India, that is the policy, which is going on. Individuals will get together and they will decide the future politics of India.

Q: Say in a hypothetical situation early elections do take place, possibly October-November etc. If in case the UPA does come back into power, do you think that there is a possibility that the coalition government might just be even more fragmented?

A: You are assuming that UPA will come back to power. You did not say third front will come to power or somebody like Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with Left support comes back to power.

Let us not keep our biases against or for any combination away at the moment. The question is, as I am saying, that you have to assume that an election can be held only if the government is pulled down now. If it is pulled down now in next couple of weeks or days then election has to be held before September, not in October-November, because next session of the parliament must be held within six months of the last day of the last parliament.

If you pull the government down in March or April, the election has to be held in September because in October the government has to be formed. However, my feeling is if government falls, it will fall in the month of May, so that it can be held with all the other assembly elections, which are happening in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and couple of other states.

So, seven elections will be held. My hunch is that if Mulayam Singh Yadav ultimately decides to pull the government down, no other combination can save the government except what people believe Nitish Kumar will save the government, I do not think so.

Some of the people, who play the market, think Nitish Kumar will support the UPA government so that markets can move. It is not moving today, it will not move for the next couple of months as well. The question is what individuals decide, they are all divided, Narendra Modi can decide anything, BJP can decide anything. Elections are going to be held before May 2014 that is for sure.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Mar 2013 15:55

Let us not keep our biases against or for any combination away at the moment. The question is, as I am saying, that you have to assume that an election can be held only if the government is pulled down now. If it is pulled down now in next couple of weeks or days then election has to be held before September, not in October-November, because next session of the parliament must be held within six months of the last day of the last parliament.

If you pull the government down in March or April, the election has to be held in September because in October the government has to be formed. However, my feeling is if government falls, it will fall in the month of May, so that it can be held with all the other assembly elections, which are happening in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and couple of other states.

Exactly same thing that I was discussing with someone. Mulayam has to pull this government down in May but BJP has to participate in the no-confidence motion. Or UPA should alternatively decide to dissolve.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 26 Mar 2013 16:22

Muppalla wrote:
There will never be such a thing called as people just vote to one party/person madly. Ground rules never change even in a wave. The only thing that happens in a wave is a swing percentage (4 to 5%) and this is only helpful if the calculations based on ground realities are done.

Take the case of just Telangana sentiment (another wave). TRS should sweep everything including panchayats, councils, corporation bodies or anything. The others who keep saying T word but just doing a lip service should not even get a rally. But it does not happen like that. In Warangal election, Jagan lost by only 800 votes.

Even in Gujarat, Modi lost about 10 to 15 seats due to Patel caste assertion.

BJP is trying to get TRS on board so that the non-congress votes are not split and can have about three to four seats from AP in its kitty.

Added later:
BJP + TRS = no split to T sentiment votes. A very good proposition for BJP to get few seats. Everything else from AP should be post poll arrangements.

Hypothetically, if you take that 4-5% vote away from SP and BSP and give it to BJP in the last UP elections, the result would have been completely different. Last time, BJP was a leaderless party in UP, this time in addition to Modi, it will have Kalyan and Rajnath too.

BJP+TRS will not only get the T sentiment votes but they will also get that 4-5% votes from INC, TDP and Jagan. That is the wave.

Point being, vote-bank based parties would loose their share of the electorate to the party with unifying message.

vina · Post by **vina** » 26 Mar 2013 16:45

rajkumar wrote:Why do you want Kangress back? Doesn't development or governance mean anything to you?

It does. I admit that the UPA 2nd term has been an unmitigated disaster and those dunderheads shot themselves in the foot by the policy paralysis and trying to live around "election schedules" (fat lot of good it did, in putting reforms and governance on hold , in the UP elections for eg) and handing over policy making to the NAC nutcases who formed the Desh Ki Bahu's kitchen cabinet.

Yes, the first term was hamstrung by the commies, the 2nd by Didi. But you can't absolve the UPA of it's own ills. And oh, never EVER (I hate to say this about any community in India, but Bengal politicos and economics/finance ministry is asking for disaster), make a politico from Bengal a Finance Minister and appoint a fellow Bengali as economic adviser. That Mukherjee fellow has been a disaster in all the times he was FM and brought the country to it's knees and as I said earlier, his last budget was in the realm of fantasy. We lost 3 years of growth and stagnated in the process, and all the current problems can be traced back to that fact. Mercifully Mukherjee has been kicked upstairs.

But despite all this, what is the alternative ? Narendra Modi ? Ok, he will manage the country well in terms of getting growth going, investment going, less corruption etc, but does he have acceptability outside Guj ? I don't think so. He will be a great No2 in the govt, running stuff and making sure that everything works. Who today in the NDA can hold together BJD, JDU, SS/MNS,Akali , TDP , DMK/AIADMK etc etc and run a coalition. Modi aint it. Vajpayee was the one who could do it . Who is there now ? Sushma ? No way.. Jaitley ? He wont win even in his neighbourhood constituency. So, by default UPA is gonna be back. The only hope is that they are back without Didi/Commies and other nuisances and they have the sense to kick out the NAC nutcases and turn back to sensible economics and politics and can politicos and total failures like Diggy baba (his record, basically of leaving MP in absolute tatters would have seen him kicked out of any civilized party, but oh no, he gets to become Gen Sec and shoot his mouth off in all directions) .

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 26 Mar 2013 17:16

Vinaji.

Modi polarizes.
Polarization works to get more seats.....since...the silent Hindu middle class majority will vote EN masse for him.

Thus the Muslim obc Yadav votes....which tip the balance in an unpolarized middle of the road election will be swamped by the emphatic yes numbers for modi.

Thus modi will win.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2013 18:10

Well there is going to be a Wave Dynamic and then there is going to be a Polarization Dynamic! I am hoping for some Owaisi speeches on video!

Reposting

The Modi Card And The Muslim Ace

India’s Muslims, goes the conventional wisdom, are a votebank. That bank is now working aggressively towards becoming the central bank of Indian politics with a view to dominating its future political currency. If conversations, events and initiatives of the past four weeks are an indicator, Muslim social and political organisations as well as prominent Muslims have evolved a one-point agenda: to deny the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strongman Narendra Modi a shot at becoming India’s prime minister after the 16th General Election that is due in a year. Their tactic: defeat the BJP and its potential allies in every Lok Sabha constituency where the Muslim vote can sway the result.

“Narendra Modi is the No. 1 enemy of India’s Muslims,” says Salman Hussain, a fiery Islamic scholar who teaches at one of India’s most influential Islamic seminaries, the 19th-century Darul Uloom Nadwatul, at Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. “If Modi becomes prime minister, more Muslims will be massacred, more mosques demolished.” While that may be rabble-rousing at its worst, there is no denying that the anti-Modi sentiment among India’s nearly 180 million Muslims has deepened since a cry went up in the BJP last month to name Modi the party’s top prospect for the Lok Sabha election.

“The BJP is fundamentally an anti- Muslim party and Modi proved that with his role in the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat,” says Arshad Madani, who leads a faction of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind, an influential sociopolitical organisation of clerics. Five months after Modi became chief minister, more than 2,000 Muslims died in February-March 2002 in violence by Hindu zealots of the BJP-RSS after a train fire killed 57 Hindu passengers. “Muslims know that if the BJP comes to power, their troubles will worsen.”

Indeed, the chant of Modi-as-PM that shot up in decibels at an all-India meet of the BJP in New Delhi in early March set the cat among the pigeons. Until then, the Muslim electorate across India was widely disenchanted with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s United Progressive Alliance (UPA) for unkept promises in its nine-year-rule. They were miffed as the UPA has failed to introduce reservations for them in jobs and educational institutions, a pre-election promise. They were also angered by the sudden hanging in February of Afzal Guru, a Kashmiri who had been on death row for years after being convicted as a conspirator in the 2001 Parliament attack.

Muslim leaders have long slammed the Congress for what they see as its failure to improve the Muslims’ lot after a panel led by former Delhi High Court Chief Justice Rajinder Sachar reported in 2006 that Muslims were one of India’s most neglected social groups in terms of education, employment, poverty and health.

Disappointment has also been rife among the Muslims at the refusal of the Congress-led UPA to declare the Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), the premier Muslim educational institution set up in the 19th century, a minority institution as the Muslims have long demanded. “AMU had hoped Congress President Sonia Gandhi would make the announcement in her telephonic address at the university’s last convocation,” says political commentator Hafiz Nomani. “But she referred to such a major issue only in passing.”

But with Modi’s name to the fore, the foremost concern among Muslims now is to stop the BJP from returning to power in New Delhi at any cost.

The clamour for Modi has also upended efforts within the BJP to draw in Muslim support, chiefly through a Muslim-only ‘morcha’ under the aegis of its parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), as well as by Modi’s efforts in recent months to mollycoddle Muslim clerics as well as ordinary Muslims in his state to dust up his image. The demand for Modi so worried BJP stalwart LK Advani, who was the party’s prime ministerial candidate in 2009, that he had to caution his party at the March meeting that it will have to find ways to attract Muslim voters if it truly wants to regain power at the Centre.

“It is true that some Muslims have supported the BJP in recent years,” admits Qasim Rasool Ilyas, a functionary with the All India Muslim Personal Law Board, a 40-year-old community outfit that oversees the implementation of the civil laws. “By putting Modi forward, the BJP runs the risk of losing even that little support.”

From Lucknow in the north to Hyderabad in the south and Kolkata in the east, the dominant discourse among the Muslim community is as follows: coalition governments that have run India unbroken since 1996 will continue as the norm. Over the past 14 years, the BJP and the Congress party have led two coalition governments each. Whichever of the two parties wins more seats at the next General Election would team up with the floaters to notch a majority and form the government.

Except for those political parties that are direct opponents of the Congress in their regions and would, therefore, never join hands with it, or the Communists who would never pair up with the Hindu sectarian BJP, all other regional parties are capable of going either way. Hence, Muslims should vote against the BJP, its allies and the fence-sitters who fail to unequivocally clarify before the elections that they would have no truck with the BJP.

“Wherever a party’s relationship with the BJP is suspect, it would lose the Muslim vote,” says psephologist Yogendra Yadav, who has joined the recently launched anti-corruption Aam Aadmi Party. Says Ilyas: “The Muslim is no more attached to any one party. He now votes tactically to defeat the BJP and this is how it will be in 2014.”

The Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, a social and cultural outfit of which Ilyas has been a member for decades, is currently preparing an extensive advisory to guide Muslim voters across most of the Lok Sabha’s 543 constituencies. It will be released before the next elections to help Muslim voters decide the best way to utilise their vote in defeating the BJP and its allies. Jamaat volunteers and its affiliate outfits, such as its student, women and youth wings, would be pressed into disseminating the message among Muslims so that “secular” candidates may enter the Lok Sabha.

Several other organisations, such as the All India Muslim Majlis-e-Mushawarat, a body of Muslim intellectuals, too, plan to release similar guides on supporting “secular” candidates. “We aim to educate the Muslim voters on the best candidate in their constituency who is secular,” says Mushawarat chief Zafarul Islam Khan.

Elsewhere, efforts have been launched by scholar Salman Hussain of Lucknow along with Lok Sabha MP Badruddin Ajmal from Assam, whose fledgling political party, the All India United Democratic Front, has made rapid strides in that state. The two have now called a meeting in Delhi where they aim to assemble disparate elements from smaller Muslim political outfits to chart out a common strategy, much like Hussain had tried in the 2012 Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, to little success.

Muslim leaders reckon the community’s vote can make and unmake pretenders to 100-150 Lok Sabha seats. These seats are not to be confused with those that Muslims win. Today, there are only 30 Muslims in the Lok Sabha, just 5.5 percent of its 543 seats. As per the 2011 Census, Muslims are nearly 15 percent of India’s 1.2 billion people. But although Muslims in the Lok Sabha are barely a third of their share in the population, their arc of electoral influence is far greater. In 35 seats, they number around one in three voters or more. In 38 other seats, Muslims are 21-30 percent of the electorate. If the 145 seats where they are 11-20 percent are added to this, Muslim voters have the ability to influence the outcome in a whopping 218 seats.

‘Muslims have woken up. Those who have always opposed the Muslims are now saying they can’t imagine taking power in Delhi without the support of Muslims’ Arshad Madani President, Jamiat Ulema-E-Hind
Ironically, until now, the Muslim vote has been most effective where it is around 10 percent of the electorate, big enough to sway the result in a multi-cornered contest by going all in for a single candidate, but too small to raise alarm in the BJP or its allies to trigger attempts at a counter-polarisation of non-Muslim votes. On the other hand, wherever their numbers are 20 percent and above, Muslim votes have mostly been ineffective because of a multiplicity of Muslim candidates divvying up their support, often handing victory to the BJP on a platter.

“The challenge before the Muslim community is to make sure it votes as a block for a single candidate even if multiple Muslim candidates are in the fray on a given seat,” says Yashwant Deshmukh, who has run opinion polls in national and state elections across India for two decades.

Muslims have shortlisted Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal as their key battleground states because their results would most impact who leads the next government: the Congress or the BJP. Next in importance for the Muslims are Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra and Karnataka, where the more seats in the kitty of the Congress the less likely would be the BJP’s chances to form the government. Indeed, the selection of the primary battleground states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is based on their experience of coalition politics since 1998, when the BJP formed its first stable national government heading a multi-party coalition with Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister. The key to the BJP’s victories in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections lay in its wins in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These back-to-back victories jolted the Muslims, who are around 20 percent in these states’ overall population.

Chastened, the Muslims voted tactically in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, giving the BJP fewer seats and bringing the UPA to power. Although the BJP did better in 2009 in Bihar due to its alliance with Janata Dal (United), which virtually wiped out Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, it still fared poorly in Uttar Pradesh, thanks to the voting by Muslims there that gave the UPA a second term.

Indeed, the Muslim vote has dictated the last two poll cycles in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2007 Assembly polls, Muslims massed behind the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), giving it a clear majority, ending 15 years of unstable coalition politics. In 2012, Muslims deserted the BSP leader, Chief Minister Mayawati, turning to the Samajwadi Party (SP) and providing it with a majority. “Eight out of 10 Muslims voted for the SP,” says Rajya Sabha MP Mohammad Adeeb from Uttar Pradesh, an independent who campaigned with SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav last year, but now accuses him of turning his back on the Muslims. “They won because of the Muslims.”
That no political party can take the Muslim vote in Uttar Pradesh for granted is clear from their divergent patterns of voting for the Lok Sabha and the Assembly polls. Despite backing a clear-cut winner in the 2007 Assembly election, the Muslim voters showed another hand in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, dividing their allegiance roughly equally among the SP, the Congress and the BSP, depending on who was strongest to beat the BJP, which then crashed to the bottom of the heap.

Until Modi’s name suddenly leapfrogged to the headlines in March as a prime ministerial contender, political watchers were generally of the view that the failures of the UPA at the Centre and of the one-year-old SP in Uttar Pradesh would benefit the BSP at the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

‘Muslim politics is undergoing a very progressive paradigm shift reflected at multiple levels where they are not hostage to any one political party. Now they have multiple choices’ Yogendra Yadav Psephologist
Muslims leaders say Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, the eldest son of Mulayam, has failed their community, which comprises a whopping 40 million of the state’s nearly 200 million people. Dozens of incidents of sectarian violence have caused a loss of Muslim life and property across Uttar Pradesh. While the SP promised to free Muslim youths arrested earlier for their alleged roles in terror plots, no such action has yet been taken. The state government has also stonewalled calls to disclose the contents of an independent inquiry it commissioned into the disputed arrests of the youths.

“This government (of Akhilesh Yadav) is refusing to govern,” says Maulana Zulfikar, a cleric connected with India’s most influential Islamic seminary of Darul Uloom at Deoband near Muzaffarnagar city in west Uttar Pradesh. Muslims are also angry with Akhilesh as he has failed to nominate heads for statutory organisations that cater to the Muslims, such as the Minorities Commission, the Urdu Academy and the Sunni Central Waqf Board, which administers the massive properties deemed to be jointly owned by the Sunni Muslims in the state. This might drive them to the Congress party, especially if Modi is a prime ministerial candidate, says Zulfikar.

Abdul Bari, a veteran of the Jamaat-e-Islami, is candid: “Muslims are dominant in over 36 Lok Sabha constituencies in east and west Uttar Pradesh. They will explore alternatives to the SP.”

And yet, there is grudging acceptance that with Modi as a frontrunner, Muslims can’t move away from either the Congress or the SP. “It’s no longer a secret that Modi is the BJP’s PM candidate,” says Abdul Khalik, a retired bureaucrat in Lucknow. “Muslims may be unhappy with the Congress but they have no other option to vote for.” Indeed, both the Congress and the SP now believe they are in the play for Muslim votes once again, as BSP’s Mayawati has a history of tying up with the BJP.

In just two weeks in March, four public meetings focussing exclusively on the Muslims were called at Lucknow, three of them bringing out tens of thousands of Muslims on the streets. While one meeting, on 2 March, was directly called by Mulayam, he also occupied centrestage at another rally that Arshad Madani of Jamiat Ulema- e-Hind called on 17 March.

On the same day, the Congress party’s Muslim face, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, who hails from Uttar Pradesh and once headed the party’s state unit, descended on Lucknow at a town hall sort of meeting with Muslims, exhorting them to break free from the SP’s grip. Earlier, on 3 March, MP Adeeb led a huge rally of Muslims jointly with the Communists to demand that Muslims arrested in terror cases be released. “Muslims in Uttar Pradesh have the capacity to make and unmake national governments,” he says. At that rally, the Muslims hooted Ashok Vajpayee, the SP candidate from Lucknow for the 2014 polls, and refused to let him speak.

‘Muslims want to come out of fear and the choice of Modi will drive them towards the Congress even though the Congress, too, has done nothing for them’, Mohammad Adeeb Rajya Sabha MP
Of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, Muslims number over 20 percent of the electorate in two dozen seats in west Uttar Pradesh, including Bareilly, Badaun, Pilibhit, Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha and Moradabad. In east Uttar Pradesh, Muslims play a decisive role in at least eight seats — Azamgarh, Bahraich, Gonda, Srawasti, Varanasi, Domariyaganj, Gonda and Balrampur.

The various Muslim outfits are now in a dialogue with each other to ensure that the experience of Azamgarh in 2009 is not repeated. At that time, a chunk of the Muslim votes, which are nearly 13 percent for that seat, was eaten away by a fledgling Muslim outfit named Ulema Council, leading to a win by the BJP. Now an influential section of the Muslims is making efforts to rally support for the SP. Says Salman Khan, a leader of the Azamgarh traders’ association: “If the BJP projects Modi as PM, it would lead to a sectarian polarisation.” Two other candidates that the Ulema Council fielded in 2009 ate away Muslim votes in Lalganj and Jaunpur.

That a fight between the Congress and the SP may actually benefit the BJP is worrying Muslims a lot in a constituency named Domariyaganj that borders Nepal. It is currently held by Congress’ Jagdambika Pal. The SP has named Assembly Speaker Mata Prasad Pandey to take him on. Troubled Muslim religious leaders have held several meetings to decide whom to support. “Modi is the most talked about issue here among the Muslims,” says local businessman Malik Mohammed Shabbir. “He has to be stopped.”

In Bahraich in central Uttar Pradesh, where Muslims are over 30 percent of the electorate, they are weighing other options as the incumbent MP, Kamal Kishore of the Congress, who was once a commando detailed to protect former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, is considered to have frittered his political capital.

In Bareilly in west Uttar Pradesh, where Muslims are 34 percent, a new Muslim political outfit floated by the brother of the most influential Muslim in the region, the caretaker of a centuries’ old Sufi mausoleum, is causing trepidation among those who don’t want to see BJP strongman Santosh Gangwar recapture a constituency he lost in 2009 after five straight wins since 1991. The toss-up for the Muslims here is between the Congress and the SP, which has given the ticket to a greenhorn named Ayesha Begum, the daughter-in-law of Taukeer Raja Khan, the man behind the new Muslim political outfit.

In states other than Uttar Pradesh where the Muslim voters may be willing to go against the Congress, Modi is haemorrhaging support from the allies of the BJP. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has crafted a political miracle by fetching up Muslim votes even for the BJP because it was aligned with him in two Assembly elections. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, his JD(U) won 20 of the state’s 40 seats and the BJP 12. But his aversion to Modi’s name is now legion. Says Yogendra Yadav: “For three years, Nitish has been telling the Muslims of his state that ‘when you vote for me, you vote for me’.” Adds MP Adeeb: “Nitish knows that if he backs Modi, the Muslim voters in Bihar will quickly move en masse to Lalu.”

Indeed, Yogendra Yadav believes that West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, too, would need to clarify her position on the possibility of backing the BJP in forming the next government at the Centre to her state’s 27 percent Muslim population. “She will have to do something before the Lok Sabha election, which would make her position

I hope this advisory is publicized by BJP to show the resolve of Muslims to defeat candidates who stand for a more "equitable communal politics" rather than the "appeasist communal politics" of the Nehruvian Secularists (aka Islamo-Christianists) variety. May be it can help polarize the votes better in places like UP without any overt anti-Muslim propaganda by BJP.

I also hope BJP can get some hardline Muslim org to put up candidates, thus taking away votes from Congress and SP.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Mar 2013 18:14

^^Too optimistic a forecast and not even an ardent NM fan like moi buys into it.

I say the best hope is a turd-front experiment that collapses mercifully quickly and then the next poll gives NDA sufficient numbers to govern responsibly.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Mar 2013 18:58

So the Congress system and religious minorities are putting secularism at any cost before development, health, education, food security etc.,

Good. I hope 2014 elections will bring forward this nonsense to the forefront.

When 75% of Bharatiyas realize the anti-national agendas of minorities and congress system, they will form the biggest vote bank for BJP.

Dandam dasaguna bhavet!

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 26 Mar 2013 19:46

vina wrote:Narendra Modi ? Ok, he will manage the country well in terms of getting growth going, investment going, less corruption etc, but does he have acceptability outside Guj ? I don't think so. He will be a great No2 in the govt, running stuff and making sure that everything works. Who today in the NDA can hold together BJD, JDU, SS/MNS,Akali , TDP , DMK/AIADMK etc etc and run a coalition. Modi aint it.

All that is valid for after the Govt. is formed and it has to work/run.

vina wrote:Vajpayee was the one who could do it . Who is there now ? Sushma ? No way.. Jaitley ? He wont win even in his neighbourhood constituency. So, by default UPA is gonna be back.

But the thing is, people don't vote by who can mange all those xyz allies together and all. Hell they don't even know who all the allies would be. Forget about organizational issues.
Our people vote by looking at Star politicians, who gives them hope, who is popular etc etc.
"Kiski tareef ho rhi hai", "Kiski hawa chal rahi hai" and all.
They will vote for Modi. What I'm not sure of is - how strong this tide will be.
Problem is, the people who realize what Modi can (not sure will) do, are not regular enmasse voters like our minorities. So in the bigger picture, actual opinion of the people and the vote fall may differ.
That is my worry

Regards,
Virendra

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Mar 2013 21:01

vina wrote:
rajkumar wrote:Why do you want Kangress back? Doesn't development or governance mean anything to you?
It does. I admit that the UPA 2nd term has been an unmitigated disaster and those dunderheads shot themselves in the foot by the policy paralysis and trying to live around "election schedules" (fat lot of good it did, in putting reforms and governance on hold , in the UP elections for eg) and handing over policy making to the NAC nutcases who formed the Desh Ki Bahu's kitchen cabinet.

Yes, the first term was hamstrung by the commies, the 2nd by Didi. But you can't absolve the UPA of it's own ills. And oh, never EVER (I hate to say this about any community in India, but Bengal politicos and economics/finance ministry is asking for disaster), make a politico from Bengal a Finance Minister and appoint a fellow Bengali as economic adviser. That Mukherjee fellow has been a disaster in all the times he was FM and brought the country to it's knees and as I said earlier, his last budget was in the realm of fantasy. We lost 3 years of growth and stagnated in the process, and all the current problems can be traced back to that fact. Mercifully Mukherjee has been kicked upstairs.

That's it.... Blame Commies for the first term; Didi next term and Pranab for economic disaster.

Who do you blame all the scams? A-Z&1-9 scams... on allies?

We may be all born in the night but not last night.

This story was sold in the first term by blaming it all on the Commies.

You can fool all the people some time. You can fool some people all the time. You can't fool all the people all the time.

You definitely come into second category.

The question is will all Indians fall into second category? Can you and ITLIAN MAFIA, PAID MEDIA, Fiberal scoundrels, Islamic terrorists, Paki terrorist supporting Indians fool the majority again?

But despite all this, what is the alternative ? Narendra Modi ? Ok, he will manage the country well in terms of getting growth going, investment going, less corruption etc, but does he have acceptability outside Guj ? I don't think so. He will be a great No2 in the govt, running stuff and making sure that everything works. Who today in the NDA can hold together BJD, JDU, SS/MNS,Akali , TDP , DMK/AIADMK etc etc and run a coalition. Modi aint it.

Taht's it folks. It has been decided Modi aint it. Don't bother. The game is over. Go home. We don't need anymore elections.Why bother? Lets save some money and send it to directly to "The Family's" SWISS accounts. Direct Deposit scheme will do wonders.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 26 Mar 2013 21:03

RajeshA wrote: The Modi Card And The Muslim Ace

And yet, there is grudging acceptance that with Modi as a frontrunner, Muslims can’t move away from either the Congress or the SP. “It’s no longer a secret that Modi is the BJP’s PM candidate,” says Abdul Khalik, a retired bureaucrat in Lucknow. “Muslims may be unhappy with the Congress but they have no other option to vote for.”

It is ironic ... on one hand "Muslims" are panicked because Modi is supposed to be the BJP's PM candidate. One the other hand, the BJP big shots are fiercely opposed to Modi being declared the PM candidate. BJP is in the situation "Kutta dhobi ka, na ghar ka, na ghat ka."

But the reason for the BJP's difficulty, is not that Muslims don't vote for it, but that Hindus don't vote for it.

All this is subject to EVM magic of course. As per @Swamy39, the magic cost the BJP 25 seats in the Gujarat assembly election.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Mar 2013 21:25

vijayk wrote: Taht's it folks. It has been decided Modi aint it. Don't bother. The game is over. Go home. We don't need anymore elections.Why bother? Lets save some money and send it to directly to "The Family's" SWISS accounts. Direct Deposit scheme will do wonders.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 26 Mar 2013 22:26

Pranav wrote:
RajeshA wrote: The Modi Card And The Muslim Ace

And yet, there is grudging acceptance that with Modi as a frontrunner, Muslims can’t move away from either the Congress or the SP. “It’s no longer a secret that Modi is the BJP’s PM candidate,” says Abdul Khalik, a retired bureaucrat in Lucknow. “Muslims may be unhappy with the Congress but they have no other option to vote for.”

Check the color coding used in the pic from the the tehelka article.Seats with lesser M population have been given red(danger) color.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Mar 2013 22:36

^ Something to keep in mind

1. Muslims hate BJP but BJP often wins Muslim-dominated seats
2. 'Constituencies with sizable Muslim population be de-reserved'

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 26 Mar 2013 22:45

So the Congress system and religious minorities are putting secularism at any cost before development, health, education, food security etc.,

This has been exactly the case since 1947.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2013 22:50

Published on Mar 26, 2013
By R Jagannathan
Modi for Lucknow and other election-time red herrings: First Post

Nothing illustrates the phoniness of election season as the statements made by politicians. When Mulayam Singh Yadav wants to get himself some upper caste votes in Uttar Pradesh, he even goes around praising LK Advani for his truthfulness. When Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar wants to pressure the BJP to keep Narendra Modi under wraps, at least till the polls, he will hold rallies to press for special status to Bihar. And when Narendra Modi wants to throw a feint, he will get a fan club in Uttar Pradesh to pretend that he may even contest from Lucknow in order to show he can win outside Gujarat.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 26 Mar 2013 23:10

RajeshA wrote:Well there is going to be a Wave Dynamic and then there is going to be a Polarization Dynamic! I am hoping for some Owaisi speeches on video!

I also hope BJP can get some hardline Muslim org to put up candidates, thus taking away votes from Congress and SP.

all of this does not see the fact that where modi stands he polarizes not only the muslims to vote for congress...but also mainstream hindus, upper and lower caste to polarize IN HIS FAVOUR.

so net result is........modi wins.