It's a possibility but currently unlikely. We'll have to wait and see in the coming months the sort of reception that Modi gets and how effectively the new BJP team manages the campaign.RamaY wrote:Don't lose heart folks...
If INC gets 85 and BJP 145 then there remaining 310 will have to go to regional parties. That means every regional party will have to reach its zenith.
BJP will get 200+ seats.
Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
So who is going to get the seats? Congress wont, regional parties wont. (They are already maximized)
So who will?
So who will?
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
I will not go by Rajagopalan's so called INC-assessment. We need to go state by state and see how Congress is coming to 85 from 206. We all love to see that but we have to remove our bias when we assess.
I don't see really INC losing beyond AP, Rajasthan and few here and there. I am not convinced that it will lose in Maha, Haryana, Delhi or UP. It going below 150 is possible but going to 85 means it needs to get zero everywhere except for an average of 2 to five seats in places where it exists. Ideal but is it true? Even a survey as recent as six months ago is not giving such a number. While all this is happening they won in UP, HP and are on the winning streak in KA.
Sorry to pour cold water on day dreams.
I don't see really INC losing beyond AP, Rajasthan and few here and there. I am not convinced that it will lose in Maha, Haryana, Delhi or UP. It going below 150 is possible but going to 85 means it needs to get zero everywhere except for an average of 2 to five seats in places where it exists. Ideal but is it true? Even a survey as recent as six months ago is not giving such a number. While all this is happening they won in UP, HP and are on the winning streak in KA.
Sorry to pour cold water on day dreams.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Heil conrace! All con race lovers rejoice on glorious democratic con race alliance.Pratyush wrote:Sushupti wrote:
Only CBI-proof netas are from Cong and D4 BJP.
If this is the only thing that is making SP support the INC. Then SP does not deserve to be a political part. BJP must target the SP for destruction in the LS. Regardless of what happens SP must be taken out of the equation. to be followed by the BSP.
More on democracy by conrace: PM-Sonia model 'ideal' for future: Cong
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
^^ I agree.
I expect Congress to lose a few seats in MH, AP, UP and haryana. It will lose more than few in Raj. Very little impact elsewhere.
The past elections show that it is all buisness as usual, the elections will be won or lost as in agreegate of local polls. And congress is not losing strength where it already has right now.
I expect Congress to lose a few seats in MH, AP, UP and haryana. It will lose more than few in Raj. Very little impact elsewhere.
The past elections show that it is all buisness as usual, the elections will be won or lost as in agreegate of local polls. And congress is not losing strength where it already has right now.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Mulayam praises Advani again, calls him ‘tallest leader’ of the country
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/mu ... 39564.html
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/mu ... 39564.html
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
vijayk wrote:^^ MMS is no dummy. If I am not wrong, he will release some threatening info damaging the dienasty. Remember! He released Coal scandal info blaming Ahmed Patel who is the chief money launderer for Sonia.
As long as Pranab Mukherjee was available it was safe for MMS as the other three(PC, PM and AKA) were tied up. Now its between the PC and AKA for remote PM. However the idea is to get Amul Baby the title of incumbent PM to get immunity in future even if they lose this round.
That is the charade that Digvijay is running.
Mulayam is loser and hopes to trigger false pride. LKA knows his limits which have been proven in two general elections 2004, 2009.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
^^^
Just Taquia.
Just Taquia.
Last edited by Pratyush on 03 Apr 2013 21:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Some Data....
Following are the states where INC won highest seats in 2009 elections
In 2009 INC won 128/194 seats from these states.
To get to our 85 (or ~100) prediction for INC this group alone should lose at least 60 seats, where will those 60 seats go?
We know that INC will lose following states in 2014
Andhra Pradesh - At least 20 seats will go to regional parties (YSRCP, TDP, TRS, MIM etc.,)
Rajasthan - At least 5-10 seats will go away from INC. To where? TINA than BJP
What else?
Following are the states where INC won highest seats in 2009 elections
Code: Select all
194 128
State Total Seats Main Party 2009 Seats
Andhra Pradesh 42 Indian National Congress 33
Arunachal Pradesh 2 Indian National Congress 2
Assam 14 Indian National Congress 7
Haryana 10 Indian National Congress 9
Kerala 20 Indian National Congress 13
Maharashtra 48 Indian National Congress 17
Manipur 2 Indian National Congress 2
Meghalaya 2 Indian National Congress 1
Mizoram 1 Indian National Congress 1
Punjab 13 Indian National Congress 8
Rajasthan 25 Indian National Congress 20
Uttarakhand 5 Indian National Congress 5
Chandigarh (1) 1 Indian National Congress 1
Delhi (7) 7 Indian National Congress 7
Lakshadweep (1) 1 Indian National Congress 1
Puducherry (1) 1 Indian National Congress 1
To get to our 85 (or ~100) prediction for INC this group alone should lose at least 60 seats, where will those 60 seats go?
We know that INC will lose following states in 2014
Andhra Pradesh - At least 20 seats will go to regional parties (YSRCP, TDP, TRS, MIM etc.,)
Rajasthan - At least 5-10 seats will go away from INC. To where? TINA than BJP
What else?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
BJP States
In these BJP dominated states BJP got 75/117 seats in 2009.
Even if BJP loses all seats to regional parties in 2014, it should be able to keep its 75 seats because other than INC there is no regional party in these states.
Code: Select all
117 75 0.45465 19 74 24
State Total Seats Main Party 2009 Seats % Votes INC BJP Regional Parties
Chhattisgarh 11 Bharatiya Janata Party 10 45% 1 10
Goa 2 Bharatiya Janata Party 1 45% 1 1
Gujarat 26 Bharatiya Janata Party 15 47% 4 22
Himachal Pradesh 4 Bharatiya Janata Party 3 50% 1 3
Jharkhand 14 Bharatiya Janata Party 8 28% 2 10 2
Karnataka 28 Bharatiya Janata Party 19 42% 6 22
Madhya Pradesh 29 Bharatiya Janata Party 16 43% 4 25
Andaman & Nicobar Islands (1) 1 Bharatiya Janata Party 1 44% 1
Dadra & Nagar Haveli (1) 1 Bharatiya Janata Party 1 46% 1
Daman & Diu (1) 1 Bharatiya Janata Party 1 65% 1
Even if BJP loses all seats to regional parties in 2014, it should be able to keep its 75 seats because other than INC there is no regional party in these states.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Most of JD(U) CON alliance was made up by PAID MEDIA and FIBERAL SOCUNDRELS hoping to confuse public. They go by the dictum "A LIE REPEATED 100 TIMES BECOMES TRUTH". That is the philosophy of Arundhati Roy ana Teesta.anmol wrote:Sharad Yadav dashes Congress hopes, says JD(U) will not align with UPA
PTI Posted online: Wed Apr 03 2013, 16:01 hrs
Saharsa : JD(U) president Sharad Yadav today dismissed speculation about his party firming up alliance with the Congress, saying there was no such prospect both pre- and post 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
"There is no chance of an alliance between the JD(U) and the Congress before the 2014 general elections or even after that," he said here.
"I cannot visualise such a possibility now or after next general elections," Yadav, who arrived here on a two-day visit to his parliamentary constituency Madhepura, said.
The remark assumes significance as the Congress has been wooing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar by promising to revisit the criteria for granting special status to states to accommodate the aspirations of Bihar.
On his party's view on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi emerging as a front runner for the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Yadav said, "The NDA will decide its prime ministerial candidate following a discussion and consultation among the allies in due course of time ahead of the next general elections."
When prodded further on Modi's elevation in the BJP parliamentary board, the JD(U) president said it was an internal affair of the senior NDA constituent. Yadav hit out out at the Congress-led UPA government for the country's current economic state.
"It is due to the UPA-II's mismanagement that no big investment had come to India in industrial sector or even in the multi-brand retail which the ruling coalition sought to harp on as a booster to economic growth," he said.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
They should have brought in Shettar much earlier. Trying to appease Yedurappa by putting up Gowda was political immaturity. However, even with those numbers it seems the majority of the base is intact. They are primarily loosing due to division of votes between BJP and KJP. Maybe if NDA comes back in 2014 charges against Yedurappa (CBI) need to be looked as it is more nepotism than outright corruption.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
This post is in context of Loksabha elections:-
Modi has done enough. When people can vote for dynasties without looking for a proper track record, voting for a performing candidate is no issue at all.
Hope is a big factor. People have hopes from Modi, they have already tagged their expectations from him.
I firmly believe it will show in the elections.
One might say that those who understand Modi's work and falsity of the propaganda against him; are middle class urban guys who don't vote anyway.
But Modi's publicity is gaining momentum in rural areas and lower middle class as well.
My bet is on BJP .. all because of Modi.
Congress would fall from 200+ to 140+.
Among others, BJD and Amma will support BJP
Not sure about JD-U. They're going alone till polling.
Modi has done enough. When people can vote for dynasties without looking for a proper track record, voting for a performing candidate is no issue at all.
Hope is a big factor. People have hopes from Modi, they have already tagged their expectations from him.
I firmly believe it will show in the elections.
One might say that those who understand Modi's work and falsity of the propaganda against him; are middle class urban guys who don't vote anyway.
But Modi's publicity is gaining momentum in rural areas and lower middle class as well.
My bet is on BJP .. all because of Modi.
Congress would fall from 200+ to 140+.
Among others, BJD and Amma will support BJP
Not sure about JD-U. They're going alone till polling.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
The problem is many regions in India do not have a national or overall vision. Otherwise there is not much reason why Vajpayee would loose. The majority still vote based on caste, religion, region and the candidate. If this were a US election, Modi would definitely be the favorite. That is why there is so much doubt amidst hope.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
It will all depend on regional satraps.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Congress is getting decimated in Tamil Nadu (-8)
Will lose seats in kerala (-2)
Will lose in AP (-10)
Will lose seats in Punjab (-3)
Will lose seats in UK (-2)
will lose seats in Rajasthan (-10)
Maha (-3) easy.
that is -40 already and this is a tentative estimate. so we have 160 for the congress, not considering the general erosion in seat share that may take place elsewhere.
Will lose seats in kerala (-2)
Will lose in AP (-10)
Will lose seats in Punjab (-3)
Will lose seats in UK (-2)
will lose seats in Rajasthan (-10)
Maha (-3) easy.
that is -40 already and this is a tentative estimate. so we have 160 for the congress, not considering the general erosion in seat share that may take place elsewhere.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
AP will be far worse. -10 is just a myth.
The way TDP is going against power cuts is making an impact in AP. YSRP leaders are now fighting like dogs and is slowly losing sheen. Naidu was right in not supporting No-confidence motion.
In AP, CON party will get wiped out. Yes! Jagan may win 5-10 seats. TDP may get up to 15-20 seats. That will be a big blow to Nikkamma Congress. Both CON parties have to be defeated so that CON ITALIAN MAFIA does not get them. If CONs win only 5-7 seats, that will be a loss of 20-25 seats. Even if Jagan wins, the tally of Congress will go down.
http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... rom-Jagan/
Just trust me! BJP can get some seats in AP riding on Modi wave.
The way TDP is going against power cuts is making an impact in AP. YSRP leaders are now fighting like dogs and is slowly losing sheen. Naidu was right in not supporting No-confidence motion.
In AP, CON party will get wiped out. Yes! Jagan may win 5-10 seats. TDP may get up to 15-20 seats. That will be a big blow to Nikkamma Congress. Both CON parties have to be defeated so that CON ITALIAN MAFIA does not get them. If CONs win only 5-7 seats, that will be a loss of 20-25 seats. Even if Jagan wins, the tally of Congress will go down.
http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... rom-Jagan/
If TDP gets 20-25 seats, that will be 20-25 seats not in CON UPA kit.The major four that we mean is Krishna, Guntur, East & West Godavari districts of AP. The denial of an entry into Telangana region in 2010 by T-supporters with their violence against Jagan in Mahabubabad was a boon in disguise for him as it helped him crisscross the crucial four districts of the state that contribute for more than 80 seats in the assembly. On the pretext of Odarpu Yaathra, Jagan capitalized well on the anti-incumbency wave for more than one year though there was nothing different he could offer in terms of governance. This was the crucial time that Naidu had wasted by simply convening press conferences everywhere about Jagan’s alleged amassing of 1 lakh crores and hardly took out time to be among people. Now with Jagan in Jail, Naidu has realized where he had lost the plot. Hence he is leaving no stone unturned to establish mass contact with the people of four districts with his Padayathra for which he is also combining other people centric agitations and this is evident immediately with TDP’s improved prospects in the region. Even people have welcomed Naidu with open heart as TDP tries to regain its stronghold.
Just trust me! BJP can get some seats in AP riding on Modi wave.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... rossroads/
You can only fool all the people some time, fool some people all the time but not all the people all the time. The CORRUPT CROOKED CONTRACTOR brigade is slowly cracking. I hope Modi starts Vivekananda yatra too to wake up Telugu people.The honeymoon seems to have ended for YSRCP and that too formally in the open glare of the media. Trouble is brewing in a big way across the entire region as the party is announcing in-charges for districts and assembly constituencies. Nizamabad leaders have literally washed their dirty linen in public while leaders hailing from West Godavari were reportedly seen openly in the media abusing the party and also demanding to ‘give back their money’. In Warangal, Konda couple who are sulking over indifferent treatment being given to them are demanding their pound of flesh in the form of appointing their men as in-charges. Jagan’s party is at a crucial juncture with Sharmila’s Yathra not proving to be a big success and is only being seen as a mere counter to Babu’s Padayathra. Though there are reports arriving in pro-Jagan media that he may be granted bail this April, anti-Jagan media have carried reports suggesting he may be passed over to ED which may place him in Tihar jail. Even the rebel MLA’s of Congress and TDP who have defied their party’s whip recently are reportedly jittery over the possibility of by-elections this time.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Will be interesting to see how the BJP do in UP - congress has so many team Bs there. BJP needs 20+ in UP if they are to take power at the centre imo.
Can the BJP beat Mulla Yadav and his Samajwadi goons?
Can the BJP beat Mulla Yadav and his Samajwadi goons?
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
I do not know much about AP politics (I realize there are huge threads here devoted entirely to that subject, but they are very intimidating to plough through for a noob!) So I ask for the 10 n.p. version of the answer: why did AP electorate reject CBN when he arguably provided more development for the state than any previous CM? The left-lib media version is that CBN had made his position shaky among farmers by cutting back on subsidies in favour of development; combined with the 2004 drought this created anti-incumbency fervour to an extent that toppled him. Is that basically true, or is there more to the story?
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
^^ Polarization (not Hindu vs Muslim but along the lines of anti-terrorism)is the only way forward in UP.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
This is basically the story. Two more factors added to this.Rudradev wrote:I do not know much about AP politics (I realize there are huge threads here devoted entirely to that subject, but they are very intimidating to plough through for a noob!) So I ask for the 10 n.p. version of the answer: why did AP electorate reject CBN when he arguably provided more development for the state than any previous CM? The left-lib media version is that CBN had made his position shaky among farmers by cutting back on subsidies in favour of development; combined with the 2004 drought this created anti-incumbency fervour to an extent that toppled him. Is that basically true, or is there more to the story?
First is the antipathy of Govt employees who were (and felt) humiliated by CBN in public in his Janmabhoomi programs in the name of efficiency. I remember some friends/family members who complained that CBN would ask them to do 10 things without even giving budget for 1 thing.
Second is YSR's padayatra and the promise of Jalayajnam that resonated extremely well with the agrarian economy, which is still 60%+ vote bank in AP.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
That is one thing.Rudradev wrote:I do not know much about AP politics (I realize there are huge threads here devoted entirely to that subject, but they are very intimidating to plough through for a noob!) So I ask for the 10 n.p. version of the answer: why did AP electorate reject CBN when he arguably provided more development for the state than any previous CM? The left-lib media version is that CBN had made his position shaky among farmers by cutting back on subsidies in favour of development; combined with the 2004 drought this created anti-incumbency fervour to an extent that toppled him. Is that basically true, or is there more to the story?
Telangana virus introduced by YSR and KCR was another thing.
AP had no growth until mid 90s. Even NTR was just welfare State guy with no vision.
Naidu first introduced it but drought killed him as he was First focussing on Hyderabad.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Well, since we are discussing about how much congress can get and where that 85 number came, I thought I will post this. We are better off looking at how much congress will get rather than BJP. I mean if BJP flies, great we will have a PM like Modi. But what if it does not fly and what it gets a modest 140-155 seats. So analyzing congress is more exciting and we may get to see a non-cong, non-bjp pm after all.
I dont see congress plummeting below 100, unless there is some huge undercurrent against congress. I dont see that, at least not in karnataka. I mean even if BJP is losing because of yeddy, congress vote share in last election there was 35% and this time its own vote share is projected to be 36%. So hardly any change. I can understand the undercurrent against congress if they get 28-29% (they can still win at that share due to vote split between yeddy and bjp). But retaining their vote share gives a feeling that they are intact within their constituency of voters. Again Karnataka may be the most extreme case, as kaput of BJP has forced people to look at congress.
From a seat perpestive, here is what I see for the congress in 2 scenarios.
The states where they are likely to lose big:
State Range (2009 Tally in brackets)
AP: 10-15 (33)
UP: 6-9 (21, no clue how they pulled this one, but pretty low chance they can repeat this feat)
Rajasthan: 4-5 (20, they are in for a wash out there)
Madhya Pradesh: 4 (12, they got these 12 surprise seats purely due to ugly internal sabotage within BJP, quite sure that with Modi in the board, this wont happen again)
Gujarat: 5-7 (11, I cant comment much here, but BJP has a real good chance to get back to 20-21 seats they used to win in Gujarat)
Punjab: 3 (8, the state usually alternates every election, so this time, rub for congress mp's)
Tamil Nadu: 0-2 (8, I am not sure if I even need to explain, they are over here, with even the last remnants like GK Vasan leaving congress and aligning with JJ)
Uttaranchal: 1 (5, alternating theory, congress wipe out here)
They will incur minimal but still significant cumulatively losses in the following
Maharashtra: 13-15 (17, they will lose parts of mumbai and other parts of the state, and if SS-MNS align, then Maharashtra will move into the high loss state category)
Kerala: 10-12 (13)
Haryana: 6-7 (9)
Delhi: 3-4 (7, I am personally doubtful of this scenario, because after all mahatma khujliwal has been glorified only for one reason and that is to help congress in delhi)
Orissa: 3 (6, BJD has voiced support for Modi. BJD and BJP will not ally before polls, but will have a tacit understanding and add some anger against congress to this equation, they will dip sharply in orissa)
West Bengal: 2 (6, no alliance with TMC means not more than 2 seats)
Congress will gain in the following
Karnataka: 16-18 (6, no explanation needed. Modi factor may kill congress in karnataka Lok sabha, but if that happens, that a bonus)
Jharkand: 3-4 (1, they will gain some here)
Chattisgarh: 2 (1)
Himachal: 2 (1)
States/UT's where no change is expected: Assam, Arunachal, JK, Manipur, Goa, Megalaya, Mizoram, Lakshadweep.
So overall congress will end up somewhere between 106 and 133.
BJP can either try and go full kill and hit the 170 (do some surveys and see what happens in bihar if they end alliance, modi goes full blast, SS-MNS tacitly ally) or go slow keep nitish in loop, get 150 and make JJ the PM.
I dont see congress plummeting below 100, unless there is some huge undercurrent against congress. I dont see that, at least not in karnataka. I mean even if BJP is losing because of yeddy, congress vote share in last election there was 35% and this time its own vote share is projected to be 36%. So hardly any change. I can understand the undercurrent against congress if they get 28-29% (they can still win at that share due to vote split between yeddy and bjp). But retaining their vote share gives a feeling that they are intact within their constituency of voters. Again Karnataka may be the most extreme case, as kaput of BJP has forced people to look at congress.
From a seat perpestive, here is what I see for the congress in 2 scenarios.
The states where they are likely to lose big:
State Range (2009 Tally in brackets)
AP: 10-15 (33)
UP: 6-9 (21, no clue how they pulled this one, but pretty low chance they can repeat this feat)
Rajasthan: 4-5 (20, they are in for a wash out there)
Madhya Pradesh: 4 (12, they got these 12 surprise seats purely due to ugly internal sabotage within BJP, quite sure that with Modi in the board, this wont happen again)
Gujarat: 5-7 (11, I cant comment much here, but BJP has a real good chance to get back to 20-21 seats they used to win in Gujarat)
Punjab: 3 (8, the state usually alternates every election, so this time, rub for congress mp's)
Tamil Nadu: 0-2 (8, I am not sure if I even need to explain, they are over here, with even the last remnants like GK Vasan leaving congress and aligning with JJ)
Uttaranchal: 1 (5, alternating theory, congress wipe out here)
They will incur minimal but still significant cumulatively losses in the following
Maharashtra: 13-15 (17, they will lose parts of mumbai and other parts of the state, and if SS-MNS align, then Maharashtra will move into the high loss state category)
Kerala: 10-12 (13)
Haryana: 6-7 (9)
Delhi: 3-4 (7, I am personally doubtful of this scenario, because after all mahatma khujliwal has been glorified only for one reason and that is to help congress in delhi)
Orissa: 3 (6, BJD has voiced support for Modi. BJD and BJP will not ally before polls, but will have a tacit understanding and add some anger against congress to this equation, they will dip sharply in orissa)
West Bengal: 2 (6, no alliance with TMC means not more than 2 seats)
Congress will gain in the following
Karnataka: 16-18 (6, no explanation needed. Modi factor may kill congress in karnataka Lok sabha, but if that happens, that a bonus)
Jharkand: 3-4 (1, they will gain some here)
Chattisgarh: 2 (1)
Himachal: 2 (1)
States/UT's where no change is expected: Assam, Arunachal, JK, Manipur, Goa, Megalaya, Mizoram, Lakshadweep.
So overall congress will end up somewhere between 106 and 133.
BJP can either try and go full kill and hit the 170 (do some surveys and see what happens in bihar if they end alliance, modi goes full blast, SS-MNS tacitly ally) or go slow keep nitish in loop, get 150 and make JJ the PM.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
^^^ Brilliant!!!
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
UPA-3 for now is a sure bet. They have so many sec-left party allies. Mamata, Mulayam, etc will all rush to it's aid.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Now start looking for JJ's horoscope in the astrology thread?
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
TDP's spectacular fall in 2004 can be directly traced to the antipathy of farmers and the agrarian economy.
govt employees (and their families!!) are the 2nd reason, but the critical mass of opposition against TDP started in the agri-sector. if the drought hadn't been that bad, or if YSR's promise of Jalayagnam had not been that mesmerizing to the rural masses, TDP might have still lost power, but certainly not the ignominious fall that it took in 2004.
govt employees (and their families!!) are the 2nd reason, but the critical mass of opposition against TDP started in the agri-sector. if the drought hadn't been that bad, or if YSR's promise of Jalayagnam had not been that mesmerizing to the rural masses, TDP might have still lost power, but certainly not the ignominious fall that it took in 2004.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
106 to 133 means there are two options for BJP. The battleground states are Maharashtra and UP. If BJP can make SS/MNS+BJP sweep and then gain 30 seats in UP then Modi is next PM. If these things does not happen Jaya in next PM with BJP support. INC cannot make it to the top with 133.
If INC can steal from Maya by aligning with Maya in UP (the way they did with DMK in 2009) then their numbers will go to 150+ from 133. For this they have to offer a huge price to Maya.
If INC can steal from Maya by aligning with Maya in UP (the way they did with DMK in 2009) then their numbers will go to 150+ from 133. For this they have to offer a huge price to Maya.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Congress can't lose this election. If they do they go to jail or face execution. I wouldn't rule out assassination.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Lets not get hyperbolic now.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Apart from the cbi angle? Why would maya go for alliance with congress? What does congress bring to the table in UP?Muppalla wrote:106 to 133 means there are two options for BJP. The battleground states are Maharashtra and UP. If BJP can make SS/MNS+BJP sweep and then gain 30 seats in UP then Modi is next PM. If these things does not happen Jaya in next PM with BJP support. INC cannot make it to the top with 133.
If INC can steal from Maya by aligning with Maya in UP (the way they did with DMK in 2009) then their numbers will go to 150+ from 133. For this they have to offer a huge price to Maya.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
5-7% dienasty vote
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Rudradev wrote:I do not know much about AP politics (I realize there are huge threads here devoted entirely to that subject, but they are very intimidating to plough through for a noob!) So I ask for the 10 n.p. version of the answer: why did AP electorate reject CBN when he arguably provided more development for the state than any previous CM? The left-lib media version is that CBN had made his position shaky among farmers by cutting back on subsidies in favour of development; combined with the 2004 drought this created anti-incumbency fervour to an extent that toppled him. Is that basically true, or is there more to the story?
The congress governments that are before TDP were not that bad in that timeline. Let us not talk corruption and negative stuff. The Vijayabhaskar Reddy and Chenna Reddy governments are decent. Chenna Reddy for example is a good administrator in spite of his collection mechanism. These are typical bureaucracy led commission based government but not huge loot ones. The files moved and also they were not too much of welfare state stuff.
NTR came on a movie wave and also a lot casteistic crap. It was a complete welfare, drama baazi and misuse of resources. In his second instinct after an in-between congress rule RBI has notified to not honor AP government check. Total bankruptcy. That was the state of finances. During this situation CBN did palace coup and became CM.
CBN has to find a new mantra when he has taken over TDP from a charming great actor and also has to handle the state’s finances which is rated Junk++. He went completely opposite to welfare state and got on to the imagination of budding IT-VTy crowd with reformer-tag. To get massive loans he did financial reforms that are somewhat like IMF-prescriptions. Cutting all sorts of non-productive expenditure and using loans he restructured the infrastructure. He used his influence and importance to get more than AP's pie from central resources.
He did improve lot of governance, power situation, and brought a lot of FDI and developed cities. Agriculture was hit by drought and he has no means due to his financial restructuring plans to go back on welfare stuff. Also, he thought this reform forwardness has given him the image and going back will take that away from his new vote bank. (India shining type clouded thought).
The fundamental mistake in my view as compared to similar governance/finance reformers (Modi or his shades), he did backtrack on crucial things. He wanted to privatize the entire Government services like revenue departments etc. He called is as APWAN (less government and more governance) and there was huge hue and cry about it by the employees. I think that is his waterloo. Had he gone with the decision and fought valiantly with the employees he would have come back. The employees ensured that he is not elected again. See how Modi is doing with respect to Lokayukta- never budge and just do what you thought is right. CBN failed on that count. He backtracked on crucial decisions and he got clouded in image. This resulted in a true anti-incumbency.
As I wrote in another thread, a state can look very progressing and the next minute if a destroyer takes over it looks divided and miserable. Gujarat escaped because Modi was elected thrice and he was able to overcome divisions otherwise it is easy to fall back KHAM days. AP failed and congress is the reason for the huge divisiveness that is totally not necessary. I am afraid KA will go into that plot. If INC makes it to assembly they will see how to divide the population so that the opposition has no rallying point.
Last edited by Muppalla on 04 Apr 2013 06:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
That 5-7% vote is in limited pockets and i am sure, congress will take those seats as part of seat sharing agreement. So what does maya get from that. I dont see any such alliancefanne wrote:5-7% dienasty vote
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Salaam Kijiye
On the Netas and election
On the Netas and election
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
It is not always just math. The dynasty is not on front foot to take the mantle. Even to use its own puppet there is no chance if it just gets to 130. It has to dangle a complete game changer (non EVM) stuff. This election is between being in power vs living in jail/exile. What does Maya get by non-alignment? She will win 20 at the max if Mullahs go with Mulayam. But with a Jaya maxing and CBN getting to 25 her utility diminishes. The only way it is a win-win for her is becoming and doing the bidding of the dynasty. For congress the game changing moment is yielding to Dalit leadership and then getting a new puppet. It is 50 seater in UP. The minute Modi comes to UP, the muslims will have to go with a party that defeats BJP at a national level. Congress + Maya as projected PM will be a polarizing factor and in addition her main rival in UP will become a zero overnight.muraliravi wrote: Apart from the cbi angle? Why would maya go for alliance with congress? What does congress bring to the table in UP?
Once Congress is part of the dalit government, she is their new MMS and second decade of huge loot at the cost of development continues.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
C-Voter-@HeadlinesToday Karnataka Opinion Poll. Projections: BJP 52 (-58) Cong 118 (+38) JDS 35 (+7) KJP 12 (+12) Southern Bastion Crumbling