Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 08 May 2013 10:14

A KJP-INC ruling coalition is most likely now. Add in a few independents who will certainly be bought.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 10:17

@vinod_sharma 2m

Which was the last election D4 won for BJP on its own i.e without being in the boat of a bigger ally? They are proving to be Cong's best bet

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 May 2013 10:19

shaardula wrote:yeddi didnt dip into reddy jar. he tried to circumscribe them coz they tried to unseat him.

Reddy or cookie jar. A look at the last few years articles on the Internet makes them friend and enemies onlee. All part of the political spectrum. It was joked that yeddi was just unlucky to have been caught. All other parties escaped.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 May 2013 10:21

INC 112 now. looks like buying 4-5 independents will do the trick for them now.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 10:25

@mepratap 2m

Many of you were spitting venom at Yeddi. He publicly pledged that if BJP cross 50 seats he vl retire frm politics! See the results...

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 May 2013 10:25

Dilbu wrote:INC 112 now. looks like buying 4-5 independents will do the trick for them now.

Congress is expecting 120 seats, which I guess gives them simple majority (and may not require alliances etc.). From what I heard on the streets. BJP itself had given up hope on returning to power

. So good was their gimmics during the last 5 years. The only hope is now on INC leaders in-fighting and going at the throat of each other.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 10:27

the 14 independents are the happy guys today. cong needs a few to cement its majority with a good cushion.

payday

I am actually happy one party got a clean majority.

either the BJP or INC having to tie up with JDS would be a continuation of the last lost decade for KA.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 10:29

Independents will have to wait until next election.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 08 May 2013 10:30

in the end it does not matter as far as ka is concerned. all of them are thief my sons. the loot will go on unhindered as usual.
cong, bjp, jds all have their hands in all the pies mines, real estate etc.

why street, sadananda gowda uncle himself had said not going to cross 80.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 08 May 2013 10:30

Check out the NDTV map, the entire coastal belt has left the BJP. Except for Kumta the rest is with INC. Virajpet is shuttling between INC and BJP though.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 10:32

BJP MLC Lehar Singh Siroya says, "Someone higher than Annath Kumar is responsible for driving Yeddyurappa out of the party."

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 10:37

One thing is clear that both Loh Purush and Yeddi can't be in BJP.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 10:38

my constituency which is the ORR IT korridor stretching whitefield-ORR-sarjapur road has the BJP incumbent leading.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 08 May 2013 10:39

yeah, BJP folks have to ask. Why did they lose CoKA? There are zero lingayats there.

vina · Post by **vina** » 08 May 2013 10:46

Hmm. Looks like Congress is back in power without any support from 'Umble Farmer & Sons. The experience of Dharam Singh was too scary to even imagine a repeat. Good. At least now, let us get back to governance and get the state going again. I do hope and pray that they do something about North Karnataka and industrialize it. The lack of development there was my biggest disappointment with the BJP here, esp when they got their votes there.

'Umble farmer is the Mulayam Singh of KTK. His caste based constituency will see him through thick or thin. That is the sad part. I was hoping that the the Vokkaligas grow out of their caste stuff and think broader. 'Umble Farmer kind of politics is the politics of rent seeking.

vina · Post by **vina** » 08 May 2013 10:48

shaardula wrote:yeah, BJP folks have to ask. Why did they lose CoKA? There are zero lingayats there.

You antagonize a significant portion of the electorate (okay, I will lay it straight, the Christian and Muslim vote by default will go to Cong in the coastal areas, there is no 'Umble farmer to split that voe) and when your vote share drops due to the purely secular reasons such as bad performance and infighting, why are you surprised when you lose elections ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 10:50

Marten wrote:Ashok Kheny is leading. I'd assumed he would represent Mysore/Rural or thereabouts, but he's winning in Bidar South! *crawling back to the library to read up.

a true mystery man, nobody has been able to pull him down.

manish · Post by **manish** » 08 May 2013 10:52

shaardula wrote:yeah, BJP folks have to ask. Why did they lose CoKA? There are zero lingayats there.

Infighting, the KJP split and deserters. Lost lots of Christian votes (yes, there were quite few that went the BJP way last time), curiously all the instigators of major incidents such as the pub/homestay attacks had all quickly jumped ship to INC/JD(S) - false flag ops anyone?

BTW, look at this:
Puttur - won by Shakuntala Shetty (joined INC very recently) - ex-BJP
Kundapur - won by Halady Srinivas Shetty (indept)- ex-BJP

BTW looks like Palemar might still make it. Leading by 9k votes vs INC candidate in Mangalore North.

manish · Post by **manish** » 08 May 2013 10:54

vina wrote:
shaardula wrote:yeah, BJP folks have to ask. Why did they lose CoKA? There are zero lingayats there.
You antagonize a significant portion of the electorate (okay, I will lay it straight, the Christian and Muslim vote by default will go to Cong in the coastal areas, there is no 'Umble farmer to split that voe) and when your vote share drops due to the purely secular reasons such as bad performance and infighting, why are you surprised when you lose elections ?

vina saar, Fumble Harmer would indeed split that one, at least the Muslim votes with INC.

It was never BJP's to lose in first place. It is a part of the christian vote bank that would have deserted BJP. And it is not insignificant in Mangalore/DK.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 10:54

@dpsatishcnnibn 37s

#Karnataka Polls- Many Cong rebels have won. All will go back to the party.

vina · Post by **vina** » 08 May 2013 11:05

manish wrote:vina saar, Fumble Harmer would indeed split that one, at least the Muslim votes with INC.

Fumble Harmer will split in a purely secular fight. Faced with an antagonistic party that needs to be defeated, the Muslims will vote tactically for the candidate best placed to defeat them, I would think.

It was never BJP's to lose in first place. It is a part of the christian vote bank that would have deserted BJP. And it is not insignificant in Mangalore/DK.

That is the problem. You are not competitive with a significant portion of the electorate in DK/Mangalore to begin with. Any problems with your core and ability to attract floating votes will see you come crashing down.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 08 May 2013 11:14

Lately the prediction system for elections results seems to have improved a lot. States like UP and possibly MH would remain complicated due to multi-cornered contests. Is this due to a change in voting habits of the voters or is it some improvement in the approach of psephologists?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 May 2013 11:16

Any news on % of votes INC and BJP got. That is an indicator also to how much and how far BJP lost and if it can recovery by 2014 (may be early). BJP with around 25% in this negative conditions also can be recovered for Loksabha with agressive efforts and detailed planing ( and no D$ particularly Anantha Kumar and any one even people like Varun Gandhi is better than SS or AK)

Planing to recovery Karnataka for Lok Sabha shall start today.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 11:19

Narayana Rao wrote:Any news on % of votes INC and BJP got. That is an indicator also to how much and how far BJP lost and if it can recovery by 2014 (may be early). BJP with around 25% in this negative conditions also can be recovered for Loksabha with agressive efforts and detailed planing ( and no D$ particularly Anantha Kumar and any one even people like Varun Gandhi is better than SS or AK)

Planing to recovery Karnataka for Lok Sabha shall start today.

BJP+KJP >Con on 100+ seats.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 08 May 2013 11:25

Sushupti wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:Any news on % of votes INC and BJP got. That is an indicator also to how much and how far BJP lost and if it can recovery by 2014 (may be early). BJP with around 25% in this negative conditions also can be recovered for Loksabha with agressive efforts and detailed planing ( and no D$ particularly Anantha Kumar and any one even people like Varun Gandhi is better than SS or AK)

Planing to recovery Karnataka for Lok Sabha shall start today.
BJP+KJP >Con on 100+ seats.

I wish Congress gets full majority now so that they don't need Yeddy. That way there is a chance he might come back to BJP and they get some seats from KA in 2014.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 11:28

they dont need him now, but might welcome him and give him some share to make sure he doesnt go back to BJP.
however there is enough infighting within the state INC itself for the loaves and fishes to welcome a new tiger into the group.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 11:33

WTF!

@dpsatishcnnibn 1m

#Karnataka Polls- Yeddyurappa is struggling to win. Leads by 1000 votes. Shobha lost.

apoorv · Post by **apoorv** » 08 May 2013 11:40

^^^ Not really true. Yedddyurappa is leading by 14000 votes in Shikaripura.

Shobha Karandlaje is right now 3rd at some 6000 votes. She made a bold move by fighting from Rajaji Nagar where Suresh Kumar from BJP is very strong.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 11:45

PragmaticIndian ‏@Realist_Indian 1h

In Lingayat belt, Congress win 43 of 73. BJP only 11. KJP totally destroyed BJP there ....

Vamsi.R · Post by **Vamsi.R** » 08 May 2013 11:51

apoorv wrote:^^^ Not really true. Yedddyurappa is leading by 14000 votes in Shikaripura.

Shobha Karandlaje is right now 3rd at some 6000 votes. She made a bold move by fighting from Rajaji Nagar where Suresh Kumar from BJP is very strong.

shobha lost at rajajinagar

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 08 May 2013 11:52

Marten wrote:Singha saar, looks like more than few incumbents in BLR will retain their constituency. Yeshwantpur changing hands, as well as Rajaji Nagar is a surprise (unless the latter was already in INC hands). KR Puram going to Basavaraj is definitely not a surprise - I had mentioned his preparation in an earlier post. CV Raman Nagar remains with Raghu, Shivaji Nagar with Baig, Mahadevpura with Arvind, and BTM with Rama Reddy, not to mention BLR South. Not sure where Karandlaje is... she's not winning and that is a big change.

Places like Bhadravati had margins closer than 1.5k, where the BSP polled 2.5k votes. Wouldn't be surprised if there are many more such places where vote splits helped JDS as well.

Why Rajajinagar is surprise. Sureshkumar is respected a lot in Rajajinagar.He has been working really well from the 80s in this part of the city.One of the few decent folks around.Karandlaje was placed there by Yeddi becos he felt she will defeat him. Yeddy was angry that Suresh did not walk out with him. It was close though as many women voted shobha but saner sense prevailed among the electorate

manish · Post by **manish** » 08 May 2013 11:55

manish wrote: Infighting, the KJP split and deserters. Lost lots of Christian votes (yes, there were quite few that went the BJP way last time), curiously all the instigators of major incidents such as the pub/homestay attacks had all quickly jumped ship to INC/JD(S) - false flag ops anyone?

BTW, look at this:
Puttur - won by Shakuntala Shetty (joined INC very recently) - ex-BJP
Kundapur - won by Halady Srinivas Shetty (indept)- ex-BJP

BTW looks like Palemar might still make it. Leading by 9k votes vs INC candidate in Mangalore North.

Update:

The BJP is obliterated in Mangalore/Coastal KA. Cong, which fielded only minority candidates from three Mangalore city constituencies (JR Lobo, Bava and Khader) and has won all three - imagine the anger that the populace would have had against BJP!

Khader was expected, but few expected Bava and Lobo to win, including significant portions of their own community members.

Now, the BJP's case looks like this in Coastal KA:
1 out of 8 in DK (7 for cong)
1 out of 5 in Udupi (3 for cong)

The vice-like grip on Mangalore seems to have evaporated.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 08 May 2013 12:10

manish wrote:
manish wrote: Infighting, the KJP split and deserters. Lost lots of Christian votes (yes, there were quite few that went the BJP way last time), curiously all the instigators of major incidents such as the pub/homestay attacks had all quickly jumped ship to INC/JD(S) - false flag ops anyone?

BTW, look at this:
Puttur - won by Shakuntala Shetty (joined INC very recently) - ex-BJP
Kundapur - won by Halady Srinivas Shetty (indept)- ex-BJP

BTW looks like Palemar might still make it. Leading by 9k votes vs INC candidate in Mangalore North.
Update:

The BJP is obliterated in Mangalore/Coastal KA. Cong, which fielded only minority candidates from three Mangalore city constituencies (JR Lobo, Bava and Khader) and has won all three - imagine the anger that the populace would have had against BJP!

Khader was expected, but few expected Bava and Lobo to win, including significant portions of their own community members.

Now, the BJP's case looks like this in Coastal KA:
1 out of 8 in DK (7 for cong)
1 out of 5 in Udupi (3 for cong)

The vice-like grip on Mangalore seems to have evaporated.

No wonder Congress favors minorities so much! It simply works!

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 May 2013 12:13

so, BJP decimated in its only (former) bastion in the South.

so what is the situation in 2014 LS polls? same to continue, or turn around in time for "return" to normalcy?

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 08 May 2013 12:14

Safe to say INC will get 116-120. Adding the lost flock this might climb to a comfortable position in the assembly.

Army Group South has broken Central and Voronzh Fronts, which were weakened after a Stavka led purge claimed the life of the previous Marshall. Surviving units and stragglers are in full rout with Einsatzgruppen and Force Recce units in hot pursuit.
(Hat-tip to Singha's old post on Yeddy victory of 2009

)

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 12:17

ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 1m

BJP Parliamentary Board meeting today evening - Narendra Modi not to attend

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 08 May 2013 12:17

If Siddu becomes CM
lot of casteism
Anti cow slaughter bill will be revoked
Some ancient temples /mutts might be hard hit, prime among them Udupi Shri Krishna mutt etc

Hope power will give him more sense

James B · Post by **James B** » 08 May 2013 12:19

I wonder what was the effect of RamSena thugs beating up girls going to pubs in Mangalore?.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 May 2013 12:21

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 12:23

Anand K wrote:Safe to say INC will get 116-120. Adding the lost flock this might climb to a comfortable position in the assembly.

Army Group South has broken Central and Voronzh Fronts, which were weakened after a Stavka led purge claimed the life of the previous Marshall. Surviving units and stragglers are in full rout with Einsatzgruppen and Force Recce units in hot pursuit.
(Hat-tip to Singha's old post on Yeddy victory of 2009 )

only the recall of Georgi Namokov exiled to the mongolian border back to moscow might save them now