Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 08 May 2013 12:26

Sushupti wrote:
ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 1m

BJP Parliamentary Board meeting today evening - Narendra Modi not to attend

This whole thing does not seem good. People responsible for Karnataka debacle still holding on?

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 08 May 2013 12:27

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 11h Always look at the bright side... Inverters and generators manufacturers and traders are in for great business in Karnataka... Happy to help

vina · Post by **vina** » 08 May 2013 12:44

Sort of agree with Ravi Shankar Prasad. Kangress true to form will degenerate into an ugly spectacle of infighting and chief ministers replaced before a year is out. BJP deserved the spanking they got in KA. If Lok Sabha elections is in 2014 , there will be sufficient time for the Congress to infight and disintegrate and BJP can hope to come back on a strong anti corruption plank.

James B · Post by **James B** » 08 May 2013 12:50

Parliament is adjourned sine die which means Food Security Bill and Land Acquisition Bill won't pass. Perhaps, Congress which is high on Karnataka elections may go for parliament dissolution and early General elections.

sum · Post by **sum** » 08 May 2013 12:53

^^ Ok.... Throw in the towel. UPA-3 is a 400% sure shot onlee since it has been now proven that corruption etc dont matter and only votebanks/caste is all that matters for this democracy

God save this country under Rahul-baba from 2014 onwards

James B · Post by **James B** » 08 May 2013 12:58

sum wrote:^^ Ok.... Throw in the towel. UPA-3 is a 400% sure shot onlee since it has been now proven that corruption etc dont matter and only votebanks/caste is all that matters for this democracy

God save this country under Rahul-baba from 2014 onwards

Not true. Karnataka elections are fought on local issues. BJP failed because of corruption, infighting and mis-governance in Karnataka. Congress will fail at centre for same issues.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 08 May 2013 13:03

Important is to know the vote share of BJP+KJP!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2013 13:09

vina wrote:Sort of agree with Ravi Shankar Prasad. Kangress true to form will degenerate into an ugly spectacle of infighting and chief ministers replaced before a year is out. BJP deserved the spanking they got in KA. If Lok Sabha elections is in 2014 , there will be sufficient time for the Congress to infight and disintegrate and BJP can hope to come back on a strong anti corruption plank.

I recall around 2005 SM krishna was banished first to MH governorship and later MEA. his son runs the 'bagmane developers' iirc. he is probably retired and wont be back.

let us watch for 6 months....no jumbo sized cabinet has ever been able to accomodate all claimants to power and wealth

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 08 May 2013 13:31

deja vu bhajpa losing and the usual R&D here. Btw i have to admit the C-system, they systematically broke bhajpa's govt in KA. Great chanakian giri. First they create gazillion political problems, then they get the reddy brothers in dock, then they drag yeddy in(not that he is a saint but for me he is like a pickpocketeer while the congies are like harshad mehta) and now they decimate the entire bhajpa with help from MSM. I understand the fear that they experience with namo's candidature, this guy has no chinks and that is scary because when he goes on the offensive it is a no holds contest. I dont know when we will have this congies out of our country hopefully in about a decade?

James B · Post by **James B** » 08 May 2013 13:35

RajeshA wrote:Important is to know the vote share of BJP+KJP!

So far BJP - 21%, KJP - 4%, Congress - 42%, JD-S- 22%, Others - 11%

James B · Post by **James B** » 08 May 2013 13:55

I was having a look at the results on Election commission website and observed that KJP has effected the result for BJP in at least 20-30 seats.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 May 2013 13:58

Whatever, a good victory for the INC. They should take the plunge and go for elections as they have good chance of winning.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 08 May 2013 14:00

James B wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Important is to know the vote share of BJP+KJP!
So far BJP - 21%, KJP - 4%, Congress - 42%, JD-S- 22%, Others - 11%

That's absurdly high for Congress. Damn!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 May 2013 14:06

It should be possible to calculate mathematical likelihood of this phenomenon.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 08 May 2013 14:17

From Net random musings

Why a Governor was able to shake a BJP govt thus leading it to a drastic fall in Karnataka and why a Governor could inspite of her pro congress activity could not do it in Gujarat - why all NGO's which gets funding from central could not do it Gujarat - time to introspect for BJP..
Selecet and Elect non coorrupt leaders..
Because of a corrupt CM Governor won the election for congress..!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 May 2013 14:20

Sanku wrote:From Net random musings

Why a Governor was able to shake a BJP govt thus leading it to a drastic fall in Karnataka and why a Governor could inspite of her pro congress activity could not do it in Gujarat - why all NGO's which gets funding from central could not do it Gujarat - time to introspect for BJP..
Selecet and Elect non coorrupt leaders..
Because of a corrupt CM Governor won the election for congress..!

Need to start by cleaning up the BJP central leadership. No more MAD (Mutually Assured Damaad).

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 08 May 2013 14:35

My commiserations to the people of Karnataka. They had the chance and they blew it spectacularly !

James B · Post by **James B** » 08 May 2013 14:38

Arjun wrote:My commiserations to the people of Karnataka. They had the chance and they blew it spectacularly !

Totally wrong. BJP had a good chance and they blew it. Why blame Kannadigas?. They voted against a non-performing and infighting government.

member_23629 · Post by **member_23629** » 08 May 2013 14:42

Pranav wrote:

It should be possible to calculate mathematical likelihood of this phenomenon.

Welcome to EVM magic and bye bye to 2014 elections by BJP.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 08 May 2013 14:45

James B wrote:Totally wrong. BJP had a good chance and they blew it. Why blame Kannadigas?. They voted against a non-performing and infighting government.

Its a two-way street, my friend. Yes, the BJP also deserves commiserations - but so do the Kannadigas. I don't expect you to agree now - we can reevaluate in a few years.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 08 May 2013 14:49

varunkumar wrote:
Pranav wrote:

It should be possible to calculate mathematical likelihood of this phenomenon.
Welcome to EVM magic and bye bye to 2014 elections by BJP.

There may be a paper-trail in 2014 so EVM magic will be harder.

I think EVM magic, if ever, was in 2004; when no one was looking and the election result was a big surprise.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 08 May 2013 15:07

kittoo wrote: That's absurdly high for Congress. Damn!

I don’t think so. Congress traditionally had much high vote share compared to BJP. It is true that BJP’s vote share in last 4 elections had increased and congress has fallen but overall congress had vote share of around 35~40%.
I will be interested in number votes congress got vs BJP + KJP.
That will tell the real effect of yeddi.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 08 May 2013 15:09

My commiserations to the people of Karnataka. They had the chance and they blew it spectacularly !

The people of KA have voted out a non-performing and corrupt govt.The BJP had huge infighting.There were deeper issues like the conflict between reddys and Yeddyurappa which was about who controls the levers of govt.Its about the social churning in India.Many Kannadigas had no love lost for Yeddyurappa because of corruption nd lack of leadership.

To me KA election results are a celebration of democracy.The mining barons have been cut down to size.The ineffectual Yeddyurappa has been voted out for his lack of leadership.

The Congress which has a strong base among dalits,obcs has been voted in.

This is what democracy is all about.

If the BJP is a democratic party,they have a god sent opportunity.At the local KA level,it can screw Congress for all time to come on the mining issue.The problem of illegal mining is still alive.BJP can ensure that theres an all out war between reddys and congress govt of KA which ensures both are damaged and exposed before the KA people.

Also the BJP can come up with a national policy on sacarce resources including minerals,forests which is open,transparent and tailored for the Indian environment.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 May 2013 15:12

Marten wrote: Unfortunately, MSM will now spin it as a RaGoo victory over NaMo.

With MSM, you can't win. If he had not gone he would have been accused of chickening out. Apparently he had originally planned on just 1 meeting, in Bangalore. Maybe he should have left it at that. At any rate, at least he now has a greater connect with BJP workers and the public in Karnataka, even if his speeches did not change the anticipated result.

member_23629 · Post by **member_23629** » 08 May 2013 15:13

suryag wrote:deja vu bhajpa losing and the usual R&D here. Btw i have to admit the C-system, they systematically broke bhajpa's govt in KA. Great chanakian giri. First they create gazillion political problems, then they get the reddy brothers in dock, then they drag yeddy in(not that he is a saint but for me he is like a pickpocketeer while the congies are like harshad mehta) and now they decimate the entire bhajpa with help from MSM.

This is the same as a bunch of amateurs wet behind the ears taking on a mafia syndicate with decades of experience in strong arm tactics, extortion and smooth talk to distract the victims while their pockets get picked. The latter has perfected the art of destroying rivals through use of saam, daam, dand, bhed. There is simply no match. It is amateurs v/s professionals.

member_23629 · Post by **member_23629** » 08 May 2013 15:16

There may be a paper-trail in 2014 so EVM magic will be harder.

I think EVM magic, if ever, was in 2004; when no one was looking and the election result was a big surprise.

There will be no paper trail in 2014, I can guarantee you. Mafia and its Gora backers won't allow it.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 08 May 2013 15:22

Friends,do not lose hope.

The Congress is facing disaster given the scale of corruption they have indulged in.

BJP will have to anoint Narendrabhai.Narendrabhai will have to cultivate reasonable people from all across the spectrum-ahirs,regional satraps,even congress men.But Narendrabhai has to be the leader.Real world will not be like films.Narendrabhai will face tricky problems,accomodate many interests but BJP has to appoint him as its candidate.Thats the first step.Even KA will vote differently in a national election

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 08 May 2013 15:30

So they voted out a "corrupt" party and voted in an even more corrupt party into power. Chanakian to the nth degree

Just like India withdrawing from its own territory was/is Chanakian to the nth degree.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 May 2013 15:33

Sanku wrote:From Net random musings

Why a Governor was able to shake a BJP govt thus leading it to a drastic fall in Karnataka and why a Governor could inspite of her pro congress activity could not do it in Gujarat - why all NGO's which gets funding from central could not do it Gujarat - time to introspect for BJP..
Selecet and Elect non coorrupt leaders..
Because of a corrupt CM Governor won the election for congress..!

I disagree with this line of thinking. Even without any of such things BJP lost Himachal and UT. So trying to spin on corruption of CM is just living in cocooo land.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 May 2013 15:34

varunkumar wrote: There will be no paper trail in 2014, I can guarantee you. Mafia and its Gora backers won't allow it.

It is interesting that congies won everywhere Raul campaigned in Gujarat whereas BJP seems to have lost where Modi campaigned in Karnataka.

If one wanted to weaken Modi's chances of being PM candidate, that is exactly the way EVMs would be used.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 May 2013 15:36

After all anmol's ( the guy on one month ban) chaiwala is perfect in his prediction of about 35 seats to BJP.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 May 2013 15:43

Without understanding completely regarding how elections are contested and how voters are swayed into voting for a particular candidate we resort to following:

(1) anti-incumbency
(2) EVM magic
(3) Middle classes sit at home

In about 60% of the country the fundamentals of elections mechanism of 1980s and 1990s did not change. It is about effective use of caste and money. How money is used is a huge topic. I spent two times in life with a candidate of primary party and went through the nitty-gritty of election campaign. Anti-corruption campaign or pro-governance campaigns are only catalyst and does not contribute even 2% to election victory.

ashkrishna · Post by **ashkrishna** » 08 May 2013 15:45

All this talk of EVM magic is funny. I personally worked with about 100 booth level committees for the BJP this election. 40 is what they were expecting. Unlike Keshubai Patel's case the cadre were split down the middle. BJP cannot win with cadre smashing each other. No chance. This is an open and shut verdict. Donot complicate it.

Secondly, there seems to be a frighteningly silly notion developing, that in every single seat, the BJP has, by default, a better candidate than the congress. This is false.

Thirdly, middle class support for the BJP is something you cannot take for granted. The middle class is not BJP's vote bank....yet.

Finally, there is and has always been heavy minority polarization in favor of the congress. This is nothing new. Congress wins in most cases because a lot of simple, decent and discerning Hindus vote for the candidate that the congress puts up. Yes, it is a challenge for the BJP, but it can be rectified.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 May 2013 15:52

varunkumar wrote:
suryag wrote:deja vu bhajpa losing and the usual R&D here. Btw i have to admit the C-system, they systematically broke bhajpa's govt in KA. Great chanakian giri. First they create gazillion political problems, then they get the reddy brothers in dock, then they drag yeddy in(not that he is a saint but for me he is like a pickpocketeer while the congies are like harshad mehta) and now they decimate the entire bhajpa with help from MSM.
This is the same as a bunch of amateurs wet behind the ears taking on a mafia syndicate with decades of experience in strong arm tactics, extortion and smooth talk to distract the victims while their pockets get picked. The latter has perfected the art of destroying rivals through use of saam, daam, dand, bhed. There is simply no match. It is amateurs v/s professionals.

+1000000.

It is first important to recognize this. Instead BJP's think tanks on this forum and also all over the digital world discuss hot air topics. You cannot defeat this mafia without getting blood on you. If you keep removing the warriors who have blood on their hands, you will just never be capable of defeating this mafia. I will again bet has Yeddi been part of BJP today even after anti-incumbency, BJP would have reached 85 seats. Even if he is a jokers the strategists at the top could not find a way to accommodate him. Moral high ground has no room in Indian politics.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 08 May 2013 16:51

For those who supported Yeddi...

http://news.rediff.com/commentary/2013/ ... pdates.htm

15:40 Even god couldn't save Eshwarappa: Deputy Chief Minister of Karnataka, K S Eshwarappa has been trounced at the Shimoga constituency. Termed as a revenge battle launched by B S Yeddyurappa, Eshwarappa ended up third in the battle for Shimoga. Eshwarappa never saw eye-to-eye with Yeddyurappa and was instrumental in wanting Yeddyurappa ousted.

When Eshwarappa entered the fray, he was up against the KJP and the Congress, which entered into an understanding to defeat the BJP. In fact, this is one of the most embarassing defeats for the BJP. Not only did Eshwarappa lose, but the BJP did not manage to retain any of the seats in Shimoga which was one the party's strongest bastions.
-- Vicky Nanjappa

I really think Yeddi should joing INC, it would be the best things to happen to BJP, I expect any number of the voters to return to BJP soon. Another chiranjeevi.

member_23629 · Post by **member_23629** » 08 May 2013 16:54

Moral high ground has no room in Indian politics.

Moral high ground in politics was introduced by Gandhi. Strange that his own party Congress has ditched it but its rival BJP has adopted it.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 08 May 2013 16:58

svenkat wrote: The people of KA have voted out a non-performing and corrupt govt.The BJP had huge infighting.There were deeper issues like the conflict between reddys and Yeddyurappa which was about who controls the levers of govt.Its about the social churning in India.Many Kannadigas had no love lost for Yeddyurappa because of corruption nd lack of leadership.

To me KA election results are a celebration of democracy.The mining barons have been cut down to size.The ineffectual Yeddyurappa has been voted out for his lack of leadership.

The Congress which has a strong base among dalits,obcs has been voted in.

This is what democracy is all about.

If the BJP is a democratic party,they have a god sent opportunity.At the local KA level,it can screw Congress for all time to come on the mining issue.The problem of illegal mining is still alive.BJP can ensure that theres an all out war between reddys and congress govt of KA which ensures both are damaged and exposed before the KA people.

Also the BJP can come up with a national policy on sacarce resources including minerals,forests which is open,transparent and tailored for the Indian environment.

svenkat wrote:Friends,do not lose hope.

The Congress is facing disaster given the scale of corruption they have indulged in.

BJP will have to anoint Narendrabhai.Narendrabhai will have to cultivate reasonable people from all across the spectrum-ahirs,regional satraps,even congress men.But Narendrabhai has to be the leader.Real world will not be like films.Narendrabhai will face tricky problems,accomodate many interests but BJP has to appoint him as its candidate.Thats the first step.Even KA will vote differently in a national election

+108

BJP was expected to lose all along. Only difference was can it be a single largest party or not. Many BJP leaders (I remember Venkaiah Naidu) said that they have learned harsh lessons on coalition govts and will not go for coalition govt.

So Ktaka people did what they could best, give simple majority to Congress. Even if Ktaka wants to get JDS to power they are not capable of having 112 candidates.

In a way it is good for Ktaka. They can now have the honor of financing Congress in 2014 elections, like AP did in 2009.

I hope BSY and D4 in BJP are informed of their place - Kalasivunte Kaladu Sukham (united we flourish)

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 08 May 2013 17:21

varunkumar wrote:
Moral high ground has no room in Indian politics.
Moral high ground in politics was introduced by Gandhi. Strange that his own party Congress has ditched it but its rival BJP has adopted it.

I would be cautious about that ... there is definitely a vote bank that feels that they are getting screwed by corruption. The street vegetable seller who has to pay off the cops, or the small shop-keeper who has to pay off municipal inspectors - these are the kind of people who came out on the streets in lakhs to support Anna Hazare.

But the key thing is connecting issues of corruption with the day to day life of the common man. That is what the AAP is trying to do. If other parties want to leave that political space vacant then the AAP is there to occupy it.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 08 May 2013 17:39

Sanku wrote:For those who supported Yeddi...

http://news.rediff.com/commentary/2013/ ... pdates.htm

15:40 Even god couldn't save Eshwarappa: Deputy Chief Minister of Karnataka, K S Eshwarappa has been trounced at the Shimoga constituency. Termed as a revenge battle launched by B S Yeddyurappa, Eshwarappa ended up third in the battle for Shimoga. Eshwarappa never saw eye-to-eye with Yeddyurappa and was instrumental in wanting Yeddyurappa ousted.

When Eshwarappa entered the fray, he was up against the KJP and the Congress, which entered into an understanding to defeat the BJP. In fact, this is one of the most embarassing defeats for the BJP. Not only did Eshwarappa lose, but the BJP did not manage to retain any of the seats in Shimoga which was one the party's strongest bastions.
-- Vicky Nanjappa
I really think Yeddi should joing INC, it would be the best things to happen to BJP, I expect any number of the voters to return to BJP soon. Another chiranjeevi.

BJP perhaps has to start thinking going solo with Modi at the helm in 2014. Its a sensible choice. Besides as svenkat pointed out this loss of BJP in Ktka is due to corruption and infighting.

Interestingly, Ram Jethmalani who has called for Modi to be declared the PM candidate of BJP was also questioning the D4. Surely there is no smoke without fire.

Can Congress corruption be neutralised by D4 infighting within BJP?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 08 May 2013 17:56

3. 35 pm: Final tally in, Congress wins 121 seats

The final tally of the Karnataka Assembly polls has finally come in, while the BJP and JDS are tied for second place with 40 seats each. BS Yeddyurappa’s KJP has only managed 6 seats and its safe to say that he is not going to be a kingmaker like he hoped he would be.

Below are the results:

Congress – 121

BJP – 40

JDS – 40

KJP – 6

Others – 16