West Asia News and Discussions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 09 May 2013 15:29

^^ Unit 8200 developed this system that inserts malware and disrupts their radars/comms system - something to do with emitters. I read this in an article last night. Thats the key of them getting in and out of Syria. Will try and find it. US doesn't want the S300 to go to the Syrians, neither do the Israeli's. But the Israeli's can make life tough for Russia in Georgia.

Everyone thought Asad would flee - but he is staying and fighting to the end - it doesn't mean he is winning, he is just wanting to be forcefully removed or wait till the last moment and is only surviving because of the material support of Iran, Russia. The arabs will just continue their support until Rus Iran get exhausted. Iran is spending A LOT and draining their resources

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2013 16:49

Eventually even the Arab could get exhausted if Rus Iran Iraq and China continue to support Syria its a double edged sword.

Its quite obvious that Assad is fighting it out because he has support of the people and the Army .....2 years is a long time if people were against him he would have fled any ways.

So all this talks about Arab Strong as as much a BS as Assad Weak ...we were told the same thing 2 years back that it was a matter of few months and there would be massive defection etc.

Eventually we do not know if the Syria crisis would be a catalyst for a larger war in Gulf region that would put every one in turmoil.

Even John Kerry admitted yesterday that eventually talks will solve the issue and that US and Russia were on the same page in this.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 May 2013 16:55

^^^ assad has the support of every alwawite and possibly other minorities. they are at war against the sunni majority - who are backed by the wahabbis

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2013 17:11

Alwawite ,Shia and orthodox christians ....the kurds I think is pretty neutral.

The problem is in past 2 years the form and texture of war has changed and now there are significant Al Quida element involved so even the west is reluctant to arm the Sunni fighter.

Eventually even West realised that this is an not winnable for any body and all parties have to talk the way out of the problem......there is as much armed men can do to solve the issue eventually peace talks and taking view of all the stake holders will solve it much to the dislike of Arab Sunnis but they will have to lick their wounds and live with it.

http://www.newser.com/story/167549/russ ... a-war.html

At the joint news conference, Lavrov indicated that Russia wasn't wedded to the idea of Assad retaining power. "I would like to emphasize we do not, we are not interested in the fate of certain persons," he said. "We are interested in the fate of the total Syrian people."

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 May 2013 19:24

shyamd wrote: Everyone thought Asad would flee - but he is staying and fighting to the end - it doesn't mean he is winning, he is just wanting to be forcefully removed or wait till the last moment and is only surviving because of the material support of Iran, Russia. The arabs will just continue their support until Rus Iran get exhausted. Iran is spending A LOT and draining their resources

I wonder if it is possible for the Arab states go alone and declare a full fledged war on Syria and liberate it without western help. After all GCC is a $1+T economy with 2nd to NATO airforce supported by for-rent paki mercenary forces.

What is stopping them.

The whole Syria thing looks like a YYY conspiracy to bog GCC down in a non-winnable war.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 May 2013 19:38

they cant attack through israel, turkey or iraq or from the sea - so the sunnis are left with funding jihadis
besides, the gulf biraders have fancy toys but not the means to really really use them...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2013 20:04

GCC only buys weapons to protect their king against its own subjects and tribal community with also the intention to bank roll US/UK arms industry .....they have practically zero experience in conducting any independent war and are dependent on US or NATO to lead while they do the cleaning job.

Iran as a nation is far more independent and intelligent when it comes to weapons employment and development.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 09 May 2013 20:13

RamaY, easy answer. They don't need the west - only for certain things like intel or satellite support. Gulf are already in all out war with Iran there. KSA have SF already fighting with Certain groups, Qatar is training. Plenty of evidence in open source talking about the KSA/UAE/Qatari military weapon stocks deployed in the war.

Also only way through is if Turkey or Jordan allow Gulf air power to be used. Turkey too afraid of Russia to the north and Iran to the east - don't want a regional war. Jordan don't want to fight an all out war.
GCC land forces are too small anyway and they don't want to commit because they are tied down with Iran and Iraq.

In short the GCC not going to move or do anything too drastic. They will only use air power at the most.

They are happy pumping in the $$ and weapons and watching Hezb and Iranian allies expend all their assets against the Sunni majority. GCC are paying money, Syrians are paying in blood.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2013 20:41

State media: Syria welcomes US-Russia 'rapprochement'

By REUTER$
05/09/2013 16:27

BEIRUT - Syria said on Thursday it welcomed what it described as a rapprochement between the United States and Russia during a meeting this week in which both countries agreed to arrange a conference on ending Syria's two-year conflict.

Syria's state media quoted a statement by the foreign ministry saying Damascus was convinced by the "the firm Russian stance which is based on the UN principles of non-interference in internal affairs or the threat to use force against the safety of any state".

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/S...chement-312658

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2013 20:46

Assad: We'll give everything to Hezbollah

Assad reportedly added that "for the first time we feel that both they and we (Hezbollah) live in the same situation and they are not only allies that we aid with the resistance.

"We decided that we must approach them and turn into a nation of resistance like Hezbollah, for Syria and for future generations."

Assad referred again to the attacks attributed to the Israeli Air Force, which according to several reports targeted weapons meant for Hezbollah, and said that his country can "easily" retaliate to the airstrikes by "launching rockets at Israel."

Nevertheless, Assad said: "We want a strategic revenge by opening the door of resistance and turning all of Syria into a resistance nation."

Assad also mentioned the prolonged Syrian civil war and said: "After the attack we are convinced that we are fighting the enemy. We are after its soldiers that have spread throughout our country."

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 09 May 2013 23:23

^^^^

The airstrikes on Syria was the worst mistake Israel/West could have made. Now Assad is a hero against the Jews while Jews and the Wahhabi's are on the same side against Assad.

Or was it what Israel wanted all along? In that case, unless they had a prior understanding with Assad, if Assad really opens up to Hizb, Israel could be paying for their help to Assad for a long long time.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 10 May 2013 01:15

Thanks for the info ShyamD/Lalmohan and Austin.

So Syria is kind of protected by its neighbors Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Israel. That explains why they can do only regime change and not occupation.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 10 May 2013 04:49

There are several non-logistical reasons why Syria has dragged on for so long. The major reason is that the US did not take decisive action - partly due to compulsions and partly due to foolish false hopes.

Recently, Javier Solana the former European chief negotiator with Iran declared during a Brookings Institution conference that the US avoids a more active role in Syria because Iran would respond to US and as a result, a deal on Iranian nuclear issue would probably collapse: "I think the United States has not taken a more active role in Syria from the beginning because they didn’t want to disturb the possibility -- I mean, to give them the space to negotiate with Tehran. They probably knew that getting very engaged on the (inaudible) even militarily could contribute to a break in the potential negotiations with Tehran."

Audio in this link:
Brookings Instt.: Negotiating with Iran: How Best to Reach Success

This is not the first time that the US administration's illusionary hope to reach a deal with Tehran causes policy missteps and capitulation to the Iranian dictates. After the 2010 parliamentary election in Iraq and the victory of secular Ayad Allawi, the US bowed to the Mullahs' demand and supported the Iranian designated candidate Nouri al-Maliki to become prime minister, even though the seculars, Kurds and Sunnis could form a majority coalition in the parliament. At that time, Obama was preparing a smooth withdrawal from Iraq and was counting on Iranian cooperation. In fact, the Iranian Mullahs blackmailed the US government.

Source for the above is IraniansForum, a site aligned with Hasan Daioleslam who is considered an anti-regime hawk (unlike Trita Parsi's NIAC which is pacifist):
Obama policy on Syria set by Iran

Moreover, in a recent defamation court case, large Iranian lobby groups and their connections with Iran's FM were unearthed during the discovery process. In March of this year, there were reports that Iran's FM said they were doubling their contributions to Iranian lobby groups in the US and EU. What these lobbies have so far successfully done is to keep alive the hope in the Obama White House of working things out via diplomacy rather than attack. There was an upsurge in 2008 Presidential Elections, when Iranian-Americans affiliated with such lobby groups were extremely active in support of Obama's campaign, with a slogan playing on his last name "ou ba ma" - in Farsi: "he is with us".

One constant refrain of these lobby groups is that sanctions are hurting the Iranian people. But they never highlight the fact that the Iranian regime itself doesn't care, and in fact diverts resources in support of outside causes at the direct expense of their own people:

Iran criticizes Iraq for inspecting Iranian plane carrying aid to Syrian

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has criticized Iraq for inspecting an Iranian plane taking humanitarian aid to Syria.

Apparently a big part of these shipments were medicines. Yet, the Iranian public at home is facing the brunt of a shortage of medicines. Western lobby groups are criticizing sanctions, blaming them for such shortages, without ever bringing to light that the Iranian regime plays a very costly power game at the expense of large sections of its own population.

Iran has also gotten itself involved in other theatres:
The Atlantic: How Did Iranian Bullets Wind Up in Africa?

The Iranian bullets that a Conflict Armament Research report found throughout Africa probably weren't of the highest quality the Islamic Republic could offer. They were all made during the same three-year period at the beginning of the last decade -- it's likely they were military surplus or low-quality leftovers, sold at a discount to anyone looking for cheap ammo. But low-quality bullets are still deadly, and the CAR found Iranian munitions all over Africa, in 14 locations across nine countries, and with groups as diverse as a Tutsi militia in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and terrorists aligned with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. And there's evidence to suggest that Iran's closest African partner played an active role in funneling the ammunition throughout the continent.

Despite some very public internal disagreements, Sudan's nominally-Islamist National Congress Party government has positioned itself as a key ally of Iran, and of the collection of countries and militant groups opposed to American, Israeli and western policies in the Middle East. Ali Karti, Sudan's foreign minister, has publically spoken out against the country's tight military relations with Iran, and American policymakers have long viewed the NCP government as willing to abandon its close relationships with rogue states and terrorist groups if the right combination of incentives and inducements could be reached. But the moderate bloc inside the NCP doesn't seem to be winning out: Iran helps operate the sprawling Yarmouk weapons facility in Khartoum, a plant that stored a group of shipping containers that were targeted and practically vaporized by an airstrike in October, an attack that was likely Israel's doing. According to the Conflict Armament Research report, the Yarmouk is involved in the development of Iranian arms: "Yarmouk Industrial Complex in Khartoum serves as a production/onward shipment facility for Iranian/ Iranian-designed weapons," while plant personnel "visit Tehran for regular technical training on weapons or ammunition production." According to a 2006 Wikileaks cable, Yarmouk was also involved in the production of chemical and biological weapons material for Iran and Syria.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 11 May 2013 06:33

There is some ambiguity about the sale of the S-300 system to Syria. But overall indications are that the sale is going through.

Russia Says It Will Ship Missiles to Syria
Foreign Minister's Confirmation Comes After Top U.S. and U.K. Officials Visited Moscow to Make Case for Peace

Moscow plans to deliver already contracted ground-to-air missile systems to Syria, Russian officials said Friday, pressing ahead with an arms transfer that U.S. officials say could significantly strengthen Damascus's ability to ward off an attack.

With its plans, the Kremlin butted up against rising Western diplomatic pressure not to complete the deal, providing a reminder of the challenges facing U.S. and European leaders as they seek to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"Russia is not planning to sell. Russia already sold them a long time ago. It has signed the contracts and is completing deliveries, in line with the agreed contracts, of equipment that is anti-aircraft technology," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Warsaw.

Mr. Lavrov and a Kremlin spokesman declined Friday to say whether Mr. Lavrov had been referring to S-300 missile batteries, one of Russia's most sophisticated defense systems capable of striking manned aircraft and guided missiles.

Russian state television, reporting on Mr. Lavrov's trip, went beyond the official line: "After the S-300s are put into service, a repeat of the Libyan scenario—the imposition of a no-fly zone over the country—would be extremely difficult," said the Vesti-24 channel.

This past week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli intelligence had provided the U.S. with intelligence that Syria had already begun making payments on a 2010 contract with Russia to purchase four S-300 batteries, with 144 missiles, for $900 million. The first deliveries were expected to be made over summer of 2013 through the Syrian port at Tartus.

The Russian announcement comes as a snub to the U.S. and its allies. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, three days after Secretary of State John Kerry. U.S. officials said Friday that Mr. Kerry raised the issue of Russian arm shipments to Syria with Mr. Putin, though not the specific Israeli report on the S-300s.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 83030.html

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 May 2013 06:56

Yawn, what happened to all this invasion nonsense that was supposed to take place long ago and all the evidence from the overflights over Iraq? I'm waiting ShyamD...

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 11 May 2013 11:14

Interesting read:
Western Influence on Arab Militaries: Pounding Square Pegs Into Round Holes

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 May 2013 16:02

Pranav wrote:There is some ambiguity about the sale of the S-300 system to Syria. But overall indications are that the sale is going through.

No Lavrov denied it yesterday , the S-300 seems like Israel propaganda , debka mentioned it and later WSJ etc

No S-300 supplies planned, Russia finalizes standing Syrian weapons contracts - Lavrov
http://rt.com/news/russia-syria-weapons-sell-103/

Syrian FM mentioned the next strike from Israel will evoke a response from Syria , so it would be interesting to see if Israel strikes in coming days and if Syria can strike back.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 11 May 2013 16:10

^^^ Ambiguity remains.
--------------------------------
Lavrov: Take 2 on Russian S-300s missiles for Syria
DEBKAfile May 10, 2013, 10:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

Is Moscow going through with selling advanced S-300 air defense missiles to Syria or not? It depends on when and where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks. On a visit to Warsaw Friday, Lavrov switched from an earlier statement to say: “Russia is not planning to sell [advanced S-300 interceptors to Syria]. Russia sold them a long time ago. It has signed the contracts and is completing deliveries in line with the agreed contracts of equipment which is S-300 anti-aircraft technology.”

http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/4370/
--------------------------------------

It seems the Russians have already signed the contract for s-300, but are delaying deliveries due to western pressure.

See also: Netanyahu to request Putin refrain from transferring S-300 system to Syria - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 38,00.html

Despite alleged denials, Israel is adamant on preventing the Syrian acquisition of advanced S-300 air defense system: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is apparently planning on traveling to Moscow in the very near future with the intent of holding a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and urging him to back out of the arms deal with the Syrian regime.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 11 May 2013 21:44

THE THIN RED LINE: Inside the White House debate over Syria.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 May 2013 06:30

Pranav wrote:^^^ Ambiguity remains.
--------------------------------
Lavrov: Take 2 on Russian S-300s missiles for Syria
DEBKAfile May 10, 2013, 10:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

Is Moscow going through with selling advanced S-300 air defense missiles to Syria or not? It depends on when and where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks. On a visit to Warsaw Friday, Lavrov switched from an earlier statement to say: “Russia is not planning to sell [advanced S-300 interceptors to Syria]. Russia sold them a long time ago. It has signed the contracts and is completing deliveries in line with the agreed contracts of equipment which is S-300 anti-aircraft technology.”

http://www.debka.com/newsupdatepopup/4370/
--------------------------------------

It seems the Russians have already signed the contract for s-300, but are delaying deliveries due to western pressure.

See also: Netanyahu to request Putin refrain from transferring S-300 system to Syria - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 38,00.html
Despite alleged denials, Israel is adamant on preventing the Syrian acquisition of advanced S-300 air defense system: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is apparently planning on traveling to Moscow in the very near future with the intent of holding a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and urging him to back out of the arms deal with the Syrian regime.

Debka is a joke in the lines of Stratfor better not to quote it there is no ambguity as S-300 sales were never signed ever and nor will it be signed and that is the last thing Syria AD needs it either.

What SAA needs would be Men ,Medium/Small Arms and good ground Intelligence which probably they might be getting from Iran and Hizb ......diplomatic/financial support they are getting from Russia and China

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 12 May 2013 07:13

Austin wrote: Debka is a joke

multiple sources talking about this issue, e.g. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/ ... Y74l0pdBJM

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 May 2013 07:30

Multiple sources without name is quoting Debka ...its all propaganda by Jewish lobby in US to justify the next strike, then it gets as news on WSJ .... Lavrov has explictly denied S-300 sale you cant get better than that.

Next IAF will bomb a facility suspected to be holding S-300 missile

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 May 2013 20:31

Poor Bibi is on the mat....sorry,the "bed" over his $125,000 sleeper suite when he attended mrs.T's funeral.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 12787.html

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, is facing embarrassment after it was revealed that he asked for a bedroom to be specially fitted to the plane he used to travel to Margaret Thatcher’s funeral last month.

The fitting of a private bedroom, which according to the country’s Channel 10 television cost $127,000, comes as 12,000 Israelis last night marched across the country to demonstrate against the government’s proposed budget, which will impose seven billion shekels of spending cuts and a 1.5 per cent increase in income tax.

Mr Netanyahu, who in February was revealed to have spent £2,000 a year on ice-cream for his official residence in Jerusalem, asked that a “resting chamber” be fitted to the plane for him and his wife Sara for the five and a half hour flight.

According to the Haaretz newspaper, the overall cost of the flight, which included 22 business class seats, was $427,000.

Mr Netanyahu’s office stressed that the sleeping area was justified given his busy schedule during the trip to London, which as well as the funeral included meetings with a number of senior dignitaries.

“The flight was scheduled for midnight, after a long day at [several] events. The next day, the prime minister was to represent the State of Israel in a number of official international events, including a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and a meeting with British Prime Minister David Cameron. With this in mind, it is warranted that the prime minister be given an opportunity to sleep during the night between these two busy days.”

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 13 May 2013 08:50

Savage Online Videos Fuel Syria’s Descent Into Madness

In the video a man who is believed to be a rebel commander named Khalid al-Hamad, who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Sakkar, bends over the government soldier, knife in hand. He has sliced through the soldier’s fatigues and is working the knife though the pale skin of the soldier’s torso. He has already cut out the man’s heart. The man then cuts another organ free and stands to face the camera, holding an organ in each hand. “I swear we will eat from your hearts and livers, you dogs of Bashar,” he says, referring to supporters of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Off camera, a small crowd can be heard calling out “Allahu Akbar” — God is great. Then the man raises one of the bloodied organs to his lips and starts to tear off a chunk with his teeth.

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 May 2013 08:54

sounds like a sunni joker who has just met a shia. Surely they will do likewise.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 May 2013 17:32

here is the video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kU9s0Bq8pg

Peter Bouckaert of the New York-based HRW says the man has been identified as Abu Sakkar, a founder of the militant Farouq Brigade.

Abu Sakkar's identity has been confirmed by militant sources in Homs and by images of him in other videos wearing the same black jacket as in the latest clip and with the same rings on his fingers

"The mutilation of the bodies of enemies is a war crime. But the even more serious issue is the very rapid descent into sectarian rhetoric and violence," Bouckaert said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 May 2013 21:18

No moves to shake up situation in Syria – Putin

Putin and Netanyahu have agreed that the Syrian armed conflict, if continued, could pose “disastrous consequences” for the whole region.

“The only way to prevent a negative scenario in Syria is the soonest end of the armed conflict and the beginning of political settlement,” Putin said.

Russia and Israel will continue contacts at diverse levels for a peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis, Netanyahu told journalists after the meeting.

“Together we are seeking to find the way to strengthen stability and security, we have a perfect opportunity to talk directly with each other,” he said.

Earlier, the Kremlin has voiced concerns over plans to extend a no-fly zone into Syrian airspace following airstrikes allegedly carried out by Israeli war planes inside Syria last week.

“Unfortunately, such destructive ideas resurface periodically, but no one thinks about the consequences,” said Genardy Gatilov, Deputy Russian Foreign Minister. He also stressed decisions regarding Syria could only be taken by the UN Security Council and that any other actions were a breach of international law.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 May 2013 22:28

Mideast Gasoline Imports Shrinking on Refinery Boom
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-0 ... -boom.html
( For They shall Never Be Friend But Fiends)

The largest-ever expansion of Middle Eastern oil-refining is poised to curb the region’s imports of gasoline, reducing dependence on shipments from India and Singapore and sapping margins for European and Asian processors. Indian Complex An Aramco official declined to comment yesterday. A media official at Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), the Mumbai-based processor for which the Middle East is the largest market, didn’t respond to two phone calls on May 7. Reliance, which operates the world’s biggest oil-refining complex, is seeking to export fuel because margins overseas are higher than those on domestic markets, where it competes with subsidized fuel made by state companies. Aramco bought two gasoil cargoes from India’s Essar Oil Ltd. (ESOIL) in March, two traders familiar with the transaction said March 7. Saudi Arabia is likely to compete with Indian refiners for sales of cleaner-burning diesel fuel into Europe, while both Gulf and Asian processors will target new markets in East Africa, where demand is growing, Neil Beveridge, head analyst for oil and gas in the Asia-Pacific region at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said by phone from Hong Kong on April 30. Indian refiners supplied 85,000 barrels a day of diesel to Saudi Arabia last year, Vivek Mathur, a researcher at ESAI Energy, said in an April 22 report. The desert kingdom imports 150,000 barrels a day of the fuel, according to two of the traders and analysts surveyed. “It’s a question of increased competition for these refiners, and they’ll have to find new markets,” Mathur said by phone May 7. “You’re seeing increased competition for low-sulfur diesel in Asia and that’s already impacted margins. In Europe, we’re seeing softening gasoil spreads because of rising supply and slower economic growth.”
Even if some facilities are delayed, Chinese refiners alone will add 555,000 to 690,000 barrels a day of capacity this year, according to Bank of America and Barclays Plc. A slowdown in China’s economic growth would probably boost exports of the Asian country’s fuel, the banks said. Aramco itself is a partner in a 240,000 barrel-a-day refinery and petrochemical complex in China’s Fujian province with China Petroleum & Chemical and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) “Refining capacity is growing strongly in India, China and the Middle East, and that’s creating downward pressure on refining margins in the coming years,” said Beveridge. “We are into a weaker margin environment for the next few years.”

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2013 16:29

Assad deploys foreign fighters in capital to protect Shiite shrines

Shiite fighters from neighboring countries are flocking to Damascus to defend their religious sites and defend Bashar al-Assad against advancing Sunni-dominated opposition forces. Many of these foreign guerrillas fight under the umbrella group of the Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade. They come from Iraq, Lebanon, Iran and Pakistan.

In Damascus, they are no strangers; they roam the streets and often clash with the members of the Free Syrian Army.

Their brigade is based in Sayeda Zeinab district and its 12 battalions are deployed in al-Hajar al-Aswad and Qaboun.

Leaked footage shows the deployment of brigade members under the flag of the Syrian regime army in al-Jobar.

The brigade was formed a few months ago amid the escalation of clashes around the capital, and is now fighting its main battles around the shrine of Sayeda Zeinab, south of Damascus.

The growing phenomenon of foreign fighters in the regime’s army follows the public calls by State Mufti, Ahmad Hassoun, who believes it is every Muslim’s duty to defend the regime. His call has apparently been heard and reinforced by Damascus’s sectarian dimension.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2013 16:33

Israeli official: We underestimated Assad regime's strength

The opinion that the fall of Assad and the assumption of power by the rebels would be good for Israel has become less popular recently, as it has emerged that the infiltration of extremist Jihad and al-Qaida elements is deeper and wider than was originally estimated.

There are those who believe Israel should prepare for a scenario in which Assad survives, if not in his previous role as the president of "Big Syria" - then at least in his current situation in which he holds power in Damascus and in the corridors to the large coastal cities.

This scenario, which actually would entail the breaking up of Syria into three separate states, is likely the optimal scenario as far as Israel is concerned. However the defense establishment is stressing that all scenarios are possible in Syria and a change in policy by the West that will lead to military intervention could tip the scales toward one side or the other.

The defense official's comments came as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed Israel's fears on Thursday, when he officially announced that Russia will indeed complete the sale of the S-300 advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Syria.

“Missile defense systems are delivered to protect the country that buys them from air strikes. But these contracts were signed long before air strikes on Syria were launched last year and now,” Lavrov said in an interview with Lebanon’s al-Mayadeen TV channel. Moscow is honoring previous agreements and has not signed any new contracts with Damascus, he stressed.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2013 16:35

Russia sends at least 12 warships to Syria

In a move considered aggressive by US and European officials, Russia has sent at least 12 warships to patrol waters near its naval base in Tartous, Syria.

The deployment appears to be a warning to Israeli and Western officials against military intervention in Syria’s bloody civil war, which has now claimed the lives of over 80,000 people.

Russia’s increased presence in the region — which began raising eyebrows in the US three months ago — represents one of its largest sustained naval deployments since the Cold War, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

“It’s a show of force. It’s muscle flexing,” a top US official told the Journal.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 May 2013 18:10

Austin wrote: The defense official's comments came as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed Israel's fears on Thursday, when he officially announced that Russia will indeed complete the sale of the S-300 advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Syria.

IIRC Syria already has the Pantsir CIWS ... S-300 plus Pantsir is a good combination.

Israel can try to knock out the S-300 with their Delilah but the Delilah is neither very fast nor very stealthy so Pantsir should be able to defend against it.

The situation shows the need for good CIWS's for defenders, and from the attacker's POV, stealthy, fast missiles to attack well defended targets. If the missile can accelerate to Mach 6 (i.e. same speed as Prahaar) and then coast for the last say 60 seconds of flight, it may be possible to minimize infrared signature.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2013 20:16

I think you are seriously over rating the effect of small number of S-300 in any concentrated attack by Israel or NATO. S-300 is just being used as bargaining chip in discussion to what Russia would see as its give and take between Israel and Syria.

If Russia was truly interested then instead of selling defensive system it would be far better to sell offensive system like Iskander-E , so a counter strike by Syria would take out Israel key nuclear sites if required considering these system are very accurate but that would have ruffled many feathers in Israel and NATO.

Right now the war has reached a perfect position on being in sectarian line with Shia-Sunni fight being appropriately sponsored by its its mentors , this has gone much beyond Assad and its a case of survivability of some ethnic group namely Alwaite and Shias.

The recent heart eating and blind folding killing of Syrian soldiers wouldnt inspire much confidence in these minorities and would perhaps reflect whats awaiting them should these rebels reach Damascus.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2013 20:27

Hezbollah's interests are in Lebanon, it just protects Shiite shrines in Syria - Lavrov

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 May 2013 20:32

Austin wrote: If Russia was truly interested then instead of selling defensive system it would be far better to sell offensive system like Iskander-E , so a counter strike by Syria would take out Israel key nuclear sites if required considering these system are very accurate but that would have ruffled many feathers in Israel and NATO.

Supplying potent offensive systems would be tantamount to a declaration of war. So not much chance of that happening.

S-300 will have significant impact, if for example positioned near the Israel-Lebanon-Syria tri-junction or near Damascus. Distances are not too large in those parts. Russia is calibrating its response.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2013 20:41

Pranav wrote:Supplying potent offensive systems would be tantamount to a declaration of war. So not much chance of that happening.

How about attacking the country deep inside by Israel AF twice over with warnings of more to come not an act of war ?

The best way to counter an offense is to go on offensive mode

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 17 May 2013 21:53

Open cannibalism by the adherents of the religion of peace.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 18 May 2013 00:01

Austin wrote:
Pranav wrote:Supplying potent offensive systems would be tantamount to a declaration of war. So not much chance of that happening.
How about attacking the country deep inside by Israel AF twice over with warnings of more to come not an act of war ?

The best way to counter an offense is to go on offensive mode

Yes it is - against Syria.

Israel is not about to start bombing Moscow, and Moscow will also be cautious, given that Israel has full support from US and European elites.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 May 2013 02:16

Russia has started supplying offensive/defensive Yakhont anti-ship missiles to Syria apart from the S-300s.The Yakhont,the brother of Brahmos,will be a very potent deterrent against any western sea borne attempt to invade Syria on the rebels' side. Russia has also-as posted above,increased its naval presence in the Meditt.,patrolling the Syrian coastline in particular. Even a few ships sunk by Yakhonts would have a devastating impact upon western public opinion who are pretty fed up seeing their leaders going to war in the Islamic world,for well over a decade,actually what history will record as the new "Crusades" of the 21st century,the word that Dubya Bush used at the outset to describe his "war on terror".

A year ago one predicted that Russia would not allow the Syrian govt. to fall and become another western puppet-or worse still,another Al Q/Islamist fundamental hell-hole.This is happening.
Israel too has underestimated the strength of the Baathist Assad regime in staying put and fighting,as of one dispassionately analyses it,they have no other place to go but remain in their home country Syria! This is the strength that they possess over the hired mercenary thugs by the Saudi-Qatari monarchies,who are fighting in Syria.It is ironic that the Israelis are now contemplating living with the Assad regime as the better of two evils.had commonsense prevaiuled at the outset,the huge loss of life and destruction of Syria could've been avoided.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... yed-russia

Syria missile sale played down by Russia
Moscow-supplied Yakhonts guided missiles could be used to fight any seaborne intervention attempt by US and the west

Syria missile sale played down by Russia
Moscow-supplied Yakhonts guided missiles could be used to fight any seaborne intervention attempt by US and the west

Julian Borger, and Harriet Sherwood in Jerusalem
The Guardian, Friday 17 May 2013 18.17 BST

Sergei Lavrov defended the sale of guided missiles to Syria. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP

Russia has defended its arms sales to Syria as being for purely defensive purposes after reports that Moscow had delivered advanced anti-ship missiles to the Damascus regime.

While not directly confirming the reported arrival of Russian Yakhonts missiles, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Moscow's weapons sales would "not in any way alter the balance of forces in this region or give any advantage in the fight against the opposition".

The missiles supplied to Bashar al-Assad's forces, which according to the New York Times were equipped with an advanced guidance system, appeared designed to deter any seaborne western intervention. Experts said it would be a potent weapon against any – presumably US-led – effort to enforce a naval embargo or conduct air strikes with ship-launched missiles.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russia had built up its naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean and now has a dozen or more warships off the Syrian coast, one of the largest such deployments since the cold war.

The Russian military moves signalled Moscow's determination to back the Assad regime and dampened hopes of a new international peace conference on Syria, involving both the government and the rebels, agreed in principle earlier this month by Lavrov and Kerry.

In London, a Foreign Office spokeswoman said: "Russia has acknowledged publicly that it provides weapons to Assad. We condemn activity which allows the regime to slaughter its own people."

David Cameron and the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, both lobbied President Vladimir Putin on Friday to help organise a peace conference as soon as possible.

"The [prime minister] made clear his support for the US-Russia initiative to hold a peace conference as soon as possible and said that the UK was willing to do all it could to help," a Downing Street spokesman said.

"We should not lose the momentum," Ban said, during a visit to Russia. "There is a high expectation that this meeting should be held as soon as possible." Lavrov agreed, saying the sooner the better, after an earlier meeting with Ban.

The sticking point so far has been the rebels' insistence they will not talk to Assad. Moscow has been adamant there should be no preconditions to talks. Russia and Iran have given large-scale military support to Damascus, while the US and western Europe have so far held back from supplying arms to the rebels, who have instead received intermittent support from Gulf Arab states.

Britain and France will this month try to persuade the European Union to lift its arms embargo to allow weapons deliveries to the opposition but will meet significant resistance to such a move in Brussels.

Meanwhile the new CIA chief, John Brennan, met the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, defence minister, Moshe Ya'alon, military chief of staff, Benny Gantz, and Mossad chief, Tamir Pardo, according to reports in Israel media. The unannounced meetings followed two Israeli air strikes on weapons stores near Damascus a fortnight ago.

Israel has repeatedly warned it will take action to prevent advanced or chemical weapons being transferred to the Syrian regime's Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, or falling into the hands of jihadist groups fighting alongside the Syrian opposition.

According to a report in the Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth, the visit stemmed from "the American fear of escalation in the region against the backdrop of [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah's threats to act against Israel in the Golan Heights and the American sense that Israel is disappointed by the ineffectuality of the Obama administration with regard to the ongoing deterioration in Syria.

"It is assessed that Brennan was sent to Israel to co-ordinate a joint policy between the two countries and prevent Israel from taking action on its own in Syria."

The Syrian government has warned that it will retaliate against further military action by Israel, which would risk embroiling the US ally in a regional conflict.

Two shells landed in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights this week. A liitle-known Palestinian group, the Abdul Qader al-Husseini brigades, said it had fired the missiles, which if true, would make it the first time Israeli-controlled territory had been targeted. "We are avenging all our martyrs that we lost in our war with the Zionist enemy," the brigades said.

Three observers with Undof, the UN peacekeeping force in the Golan, were abducted by Syrian opposition forces and later released on Wednesday, the third such incident in the past two months.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 May 2013 15:12

Interesting comments by the UAE FM on KSA position on Pak in wikileaks:

14. (S) AbZ express concern over Saudi Arabia's decision not to make a pledge at the Tokyo conference. AbZ said that the Saudis have never liked the Pakistan Peoples Party, and support Nawaz Sharif. In addition, AbZ posited that Saudi Arabia suspects that Zardari is Shia, thus creating Saudi concern of a Shia triangle in the region between Iran, the Maliki government in Iraq, and Pakistan under Zardari. Feltman noted a pattern of Saudi behavior of withholding financial assistance - not supporting March 14 in Lebanon, not sending funds to the PA, and not planning a pledge for Pakistan. Otaiba added that Saudi Arabia also failed make a commitment at the G20 meeting.

KSA hate Zardari, like Nawaz and want a military strongman.