Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 May 2013 01:18

Shaardula Saar; Today congress gets my goat in general. My apologies if I came out too hard, but honestly you did seem to imply that others are mercantile and "different" from 'digas whose concerns are more simpler and more grounded.

Not so saar, all is same only, all the minor flavors dont change the mega trend.

Congress of Devaraj Urs and Indira Gandhi and PVNR is now long dead and gone, I suspect 'digas have voted for a congress which does not exist. That is all.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 May 2013 01:24

shaardula wrote: what YSR did in AP why does it matter for hardanhalli politics saar?

Because its the same Congress Saar, many of the local factors are also same (since close by) -- the apparently different branches are rooted to the same tree saar. No congress person is going to go too far from the "core values" -- local or not.

Why cant people see the bigger picture? Its all related, at most 2 degrees of separation!!! --> I know people cant, I am just doing a chest beating exercise they think there is such a thing as local anymore.

With all due apologies Shaardula saar.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 16 May 2013 01:28

Give this thread its 72

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 16 May 2013 03:50

Mahendra wrote:Give this thread its 72

+1. Onlee.

In any case, no new state polls expected for a few months, AFAIK. Cong may continue to see defeat in MP and CT, may well lose Rajasthan (or so I hope). Sadly, Dilli will remain with them for sure. JMTPs onlee.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 May 2013 04:17

What if they decide to hold snap polls this year after the rains?

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 16 May 2013 04:22

Why do people demand a thread be given its 72? When the issue dies down, it will sink into the Holy Arabian Sea anyway.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 May 2013 04:59

Apologies if posted earlier:

Hindu:

Social engineering formula helped Congress win Karnataka elections

If the three-way division in the Bharatiya Janata Party vote was clearly the single biggest reason for the Congress’ convincing victory in the recent Karnataka Assembly elections, perhaps the most significant element in the latter’s electoral strategy was “social engineering.” The party, senior Congress functionaries say, taking inspiration from the late Devraj Urs, adopted a formula that shifted the spotlight away from the two dominant communities in the State, the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas, to the OBCs, Dalits and minorities.

Giving shape to this social combination was Siddaramaiah, the man who will be sworn in as Chief Minister on Monday: he was backed in this endeavour totally by Congress general secretary in charge of the State Madhusudan Mistry.

Mr. Siddaramaiah, who himself belongs to the nine per cent-strong backward Kuruba community, was able to consolidate the OBC vote — as Urs had in another time — along with that of Dalits and Muslims who came out in large numbers to vote for the Congress. The fact that Union Minister Mallikarjun Kharge — who too played a significant role in these elections — and KPCC chief G. Parameshwara are both Dalits also sent out the necessary message to the community. As for Muslims, having watched the free run RSS-inspired organisations such as the Ram Sene have had in the State over the last so many years, they just lined up behind the Congress.

Mr. Siddaramaiah has christened this social combination as “AHINDA” (alpasankhyak or minorities, induliga or OBC and Dalits), much like Madhavsinh Solanki, in another era, had forged the KHAM (kshatriya, Adivasi, Muslim) line-up in Gujarat.

The writing on the wall

The election of Mr. Siddaramaiah as CLP leader on Friday was a smooth affair, not merely because he was the most popular candidate among the legislators, but because the party’s central leadership read the writing on the wall: having won a well-fought victory at a time when the party’s national credibility is so low, it could ill-afford a revolt on its hands. Party functionaries are also attributing the selection to the party vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who, they say, threw his weight behind the popular choice, ignoring those voices who stressed that Mr. Siddaramaiah was a relative newcomer, having moved from the Janata Dal (Secular) to the Congress in 2006, after H.D. Deve Gowda sidelined him in favour of his son, H.D. Kumaraswamy. In this, Mr. Mistry too played his role.

The Congress also had the recent example of the central leadership rejecting the claims of the party’s most popular candidate in Uttarakhand, Harish Rawat, and instead making Lok Sabha MP Vijay Bahuguna Chief Minister, apparently for favours done to a key leader, if the Congress grapevine is to be believed. Since then, Mr. Bahuguna’s son lost the Lok Sabha seat vacated by him, and the party performed poorly in the mayoral elections in many parts of Uttarakhand.

If the Vokkaligas voted largely for the JD(S), a substantial number of Lingayats, traditionally with the BJP, fell into the Congress’ lap, as their tallest leader, B.S. Yeddyurappa, was seen to have been driven out of the BJP.

Candidate selection

A section of the Congress would like part of the credit for its victory in Karnataka to go to what it describes as a new model of candidate selection, based on the belief that the party bosses in New Delhi may not be the best judge of men and matters in Karnataka’s deeply complicated caste-ridden politics. This section claims that a conscious decision was taken to treat the local and district level voices and interests, rather than senior State leaders, as the primary key input in selection of candidates.

But the fact is that this is the traditional method of selecting candidates, allowing the names to come up from the block and district level to the State election committee, from where it goes to the central screening committee and finally to the central election committee.

In the past, senior leaders have ensured that favourites’ names are included — sometimes by influencing district committees to put such names in their panels and sometimes by introducing them at a later stage. But the selection process in Karnataka, this time, say party sources in the know, while somewhat more methodical was entirely not able to prevent relatives of senior leaders creeping in to the list. Sons of senior leaders Mr. Kharge and Dharam Singh contested and won, while S. Bangarappa’s son lost to another son who fought on a JD(S) ticket and a sitting MLA’s ticket was cut to accommodate C.M. Ibrahim (who lost). In short, the selection of candidates was not entirely free of nepotism or manipulation, especially in the second list, but it was certainly more systematic and adhered by and large to Mr. Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA formula.

In addition, aspirants whose names did not figure in the panels could submit CVs, along with a fee of Rs. 10,000 (for general candidates) and Rs. 5,000 (for SCs and STs). A sum of Rs. 3 crore was raised from this exercise, party sources said.

That AHINDA line-up — along with the overwhelming mood against the BJP — rather than some new “merit-based” selection saw the Congress sailing through.

Important lessons learned for BJP if they want.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 16 May 2013 07:16

@venkateshkm 7h

The reasons for the BJP debacle in coastal karnataka is now clear

Vishwamitra was a Great Saint Until Menaka Danced Before Him: Or The Story of the BJP

http://www.sandeepweb.com/2013/05/16/vi ... f-the-bjp/

very incisive.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 May 2013 07:18

Sanku wrote:
shaardula wrote: what YSR did in AP why does it matter for hardanhalli politics saar?
Because its the same Congress Saar, many of the local factors are also same (since close by) -- the apparently different branches are rooted to the same tree saar. No congress person is going to go too far from the "core values" -- local or not.

Why cant people see the bigger picture? Its all related, at most 2 degrees of separation!!! --> I know people cant, I am just doing a chest beating exercise they think there is such a thing as local anymore.

With all due apologies Shaardula saar.

100% agree.

It is the DNA of the Congis. The destructions institutions and using them to blackmail, use traitors and support terrorists. This is across the board whether it is in AP or Kerala or Ktaka or Gujarat or Delhi or Rajasthan.

It has to go to the extent of Lebanon as described in Black swan book for these people to understand the dangers posed by CONgis and Islamic terrorists. By then, it willbe too late.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 May 2013 19:26

Published on May 15, 2013
By A Srinivasa Rao
The saffron party's grand plans to conquer Telangana

The BJP hopes to win at least half-a-dozen MP seats, out of 17 MP seats, in Telangana region, thereby giving the TRS a run for its money. "It would help the party emerge as a major political force once the NDA comes to power and grants the separate state," the BJP leader added.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 16 May 2013 19:55

yaak sumne tauntu.

a satirical analysis of what happened in kanglish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-zUHOyiKx4

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 May 2013 20:01

Published on May 16, 2013
By Sanjay K Jha
Cong fights rift buzz with trinity posters: Telegraph

A Congress leader, admitting that the impression that Sonia was willing to “dump” Manmohan would harm her image, said: “Nobody still doubts the personal integrity of Manmohan Singh. Can we imagine how the UPA would face this deluge of corruption charges without the shield our Prime Minister provides? We still need him as there is no replacement.

“There is no question of bringing Rahul in this atmosphere. A.K. Antony is a Christian and the BJP will make it a big issue. Others like P. Chidambaram and Sushil Shinde can’t be projected as cleaner than Manmohan.”

Sources revealed that the Congress was keen to present a picture of harmony at the May 22 anniversary programme. Even in the impending shuffle, the party would not force changes without Manmohan’s consent, they added.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 16 May 2013 20:09

if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 May 2013 20:15

OT

shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.

If Church was not so aggressive in proselytizing in India, and if Indian Christians were not so devout towards outside institutions helping them expand here in India, I'm sure nobody would have had a problem with his religion!

That does not mean that the man's individual standing does not count!

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 May 2013 20:20

shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.

Well... The article is written by the scoundrel called Sanjay Jha who is know servant of the Sonia by bringing crudely BJP into the equation. And you respond to that crass crook by calling all people out. Nice try.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 16 May 2013 20:43

Rajasthan update:
Gulabchand Kataria, among the top three of Rajasthan BJP and leader of opposition in assembly, was chargesheeted by CBI in the Sohrabuddin Sheikh encounter case.
The accused leader has said that he will resign from the State assembly if arrested in this case.
The State BJP has called for a state-wide bandh on May 18 in protest against the move.
BJP has said that Kataria led 'Suraj Sankalp' yatra in Mewar region has evoked a huge turnout there.
Congress was panicked with the success of yatra because it presently has 22 MLAs from Mewar region, highest in Rajasthan.
Kataria has had a relatively clean image in Rajasthan in his 35 yrs of political career.
He is known to have been boldly against Vasndhara in the past and had only recently warmed up to her.
In other news, state BJP dissidents like Ghanshyam Tiwari (on whom Vasundhara is said to have spied once when she was CM) are busy as ever. Showing off the tall, dissident individuality and plans of communal politics is flashing up dangerously.

Meanwhile, Vasundhara-Gehlot brickbats are continuing in full swing in the State.
Gehlot is bullishly on a candy distribution drive as this is the election year. Candies include free medicine at Public hospitals among other steps.
Also, first line of Jaipur Metro is expected to be completed in next few months.

Regards,
Virendra

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 16 May 2013 22:08

RajeshA wrote:OT

shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.
If Church was not so aggressive in proselytizing in India, and if Indian Christians were not so devout towards outside institutions helping them expand here in India, I'm sure nobody would have had a problem with his religion!

That does not mean that the man's individual standing does not count!

he's an athiest. not that it should matter even otherwise. at the very least we should be able to distinguish between pauls & antonys amongst us.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 May 2013 22:12

shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.

the question then to ask is why has Mahamahim Smt Antoina Maino ji released her pet attack dog (no not diggy) against her Def Minister who got her from Italy a nice little deal of dark helicopters for her to jaunt around in.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 17 May 2013 02:37

shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.

Just to inform all folks, AKA is in the def minister because he allows others to generate congi party funds. he allows corrutpion across the board without himself avoiding it.

Despite numerous scams in his tenurs and controverises he is not removed. he has all the support of the paid media and termite queen to help him in the great cause.
He is like MMS only,he does not eat but allows others to eat and loot India.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 17 May 2013 02:51

shaardula wrote:whatever man sanku, this reversal of ban on cow slaughter seems to have gotten your goat. your chip, your shoulder, what can i do about it, tell me? all i'm saying is, before bjp govt there was no ban. everyone was going on with their lives with no real problems. untill bjp came and decided this was a rashtirya problem of the highest order and needed their immediate top priority personal intervention.
people in ka eat beef and skin hides. what are they not dharmic enough for you?

first create a problem, then solve it mebbe thats what is the rashtriya way eno, perhaps. patanai.

very poor understanding of the problem.
BJP was never in power for a long time since independence. Congress was ruling all over India. Cow slaughter was in place in many states. gradually it got whittled due to congis secularism.

It was never BJP problem to begin with but they highlighted it along with many others. But BJP got branded as cow Hindu etc party.
But sickular parteis never got branded as muslim or christian parties or anti Hindu parties.
Many sickular parties openly bat for non Hindus in the name of sickularism.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The same could be said of the sikular parties-- siddu promised to remove the cow salughter ban as it is a vote catching one comapried to BJP's ban which is not.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 May 2013 03:57

RajeshA wrote:Published on May 15, 2013
By A Srinivasa Rao
The saffron party's grand plans to conquer Telangana

The BJP hopes to win at least half-a-dozen MP seats, out of 17 MP seats, in Telangana region, thereby giving the TRS a run for its money. "It would help the party emerge as a major political force once the NDA comes to power and grants the separate state," the BJP leader added.

wet dreams

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 17 May 2013 04:00

In 6 years, PM has become 8 years older

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/i ... 721687.ece

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 17 May 2013 04:02

BJP will be reduced to a single-state party: Rahul Gandhi

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... m=referral

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 17 May 2013 07:31

पारिवारिक विरासत पाने को वरुण ने दिखाई ताकत

http://www.jagran.com/news/national-var ... 98123.html

कांग्रेस के गढ़ में गुरुवार को भाजपा महासचिव वरुण गांधी ने अपने पिता की सियासी विरासत पाने को स्वाभिमान रैली की। अर्से बाद खचाखच भरे खुर्शीद क्लब मैदान में जय श्री राम के नारे भी खूब गूंजे। युवाओं पर नरेंद्र मोदी का खुमार कम वरुण का जादू अधिक दिखा। भीड़ ने जहां वरुण गांधी के अगला मुख्यमंत्री होने के नारे लगाए, वहीं वरुण ने भी दिल्ली के बजाए लखनऊ की सरकार पर ज्यादा निशाने साधे। रैली में बतौर मुख्य अतिथि पूर्व राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष नितिन गडकरी मौजूद थे।

महासचिव ने उप्र में किसानों, मजदूरों व गरीबों की सुनवाई न होने पर सवाल उठाए और मुख्यमंत्री अखिलेश यादव के युवा प्रेम को फरेब बताया। लैपटॉप और बेरोजगारी भत्ता बांटने को फिजूल साबित करते हुए युवाओं को रोजगार मुहैया न कराने पर चिंता जाहिर की। मुख्यमंत्री को लिखी चिठ्ठी का हवाला देते हुए वरुण ने विकास के मुद्दे पर सरकार को घेरा। विरोध के लिए नकारात्मक राजनीति न करने का जिक्र करते हुए वरुण ने लखनऊ से दिल्ली और वाराणसी से दिल्ली तक सुपर हाईवे बनाने की पैरोकारी की ताकि 12 घंटे का सफर 4-5 घंटे ही तय हो सके। बिजली व सड़क बेहतर न होने को प्रदेश के पिछड़ने की वजह बताई और सपा-बसपा के चंगुल से प्रदेश को मुक्त कराने का आह्वान किया।

वरुण के जेहन में अपनी मां मेनका का अमेठी से हारना भी रहा होगा, इसलिए सुलतानपुर सीट पर खुद चुनाव लड़ने की तैयारी के तहत उन्होंने पूर्व विधायक सोनू सिंह जैसे विवादित नामों को साथ लेने से भी गुरेज नहीं किया। सोनू केवल स्वागत होर्डिंग में ही नहीं मंच पर भी सक्रिय भूमिका में नजर आए। दो दिन पहले हुए बसपा के ब्राह्माण सम्मेलन का असर कम करने के लिए स्वाभिमान रैली में 51 ब्राह्माणों से शंखध्वनि कराकर चुनावी अभियान की शुरुआत कराई गई। गडकरी ने अपने संबोधन में संप्रग सरकार को बदलने के लिए सपा-बसपा को बेअसर करने पर जोर दिया।

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 May 2013 07:50

shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.

It was the Congress guy who brought AKA's religion. All these days I thought he was a Hindu-Brahmin.

In some other news (eventhough we mustn't believe Wikiliks)

Pranav wrote:WikiLeaks: Pranab was removed as Defence Minister because he could not generate party funds

According to WikiLeaks, the US embassy said that Congress removed Pranab Mukherjee from his post as Minister of Defense because he was not sufficiently zealous in raising funds for the party. “Our sources tell us that Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi and PM Singh needed to get Pranab Mukherjee out of his post as Minister of Defense because he was not sufficiently zealous in raising funds for the party.Mukherjee finally accepted the move after receiving reassurances that he would remain in-charge of the many Ministerial Committees that help him maintain his domestic power base. ”

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/05/09/w ... 75823.html

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 17 May 2013 09:36

^^ yeh like Atma Ram Antulay. But come on man how could you miss the Antony part. Also on another matter of Atheism having become in arguments what homosexuality was to hollywood, a style statement. You missed that too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_K_Antony

Arackaparambil Kurien Antony (born 28 December 1940)
Profession Politician, Lawyer
Religion Atheism;[2] devotee of Mata Amritanandamayi[3][4]

Minister of Defence Incumbent
Assumed office 26 October 2006
Preceded by Pranab Mukherjee

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 17 May 2013 12:32

who is funding it?.

Kejriwal's AAP to organise convention in Chicago

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/kejri ... 130517.htm

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 17 May 2013 13:20

Sushupti wrote:who is funding it?.

Kejriwal's AAP to organise convention in Chicago

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/kejri ... 130517.htm

He thrives on publicity. Ignore him. Honestly. He is a front of congress so why give him any credibility.

What Foreign agencies are trying through AAP is very much like what west is trying in Syria. Should there be a armed revolt against this? Its clearly targeted at disrupting the fabric of the desh.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 May 2013 15:25

RamaY wrote:
shaardula wrote:if people start finding faults with bharati putras like AK Anthony because of his name, then there is no point to it.
It was the Congress guy who brought AKA's religion. All these days I thought he was a Hindu-Brahmin.

In some other news (eventhough we mustn't believe Wikiliks)

That's the beauty of this minority gene that has been embedded in us thru our education system and paid media. Bring up the religion or caste and play all the cunning games and mention BJP once in the end. The gullible people will tell how his fellow Hindus are bad people, communal, dangerous, and how great Congis are ... Show him a video of a CONgi minister telling his audience the only way Christianity will grow is if they elect CONgis, the video is erased from mind in 5 minutes. then you will hear "who is not corrupt? Who is not communal?"

That is the power of paid media. Keep pounding the message of divide and rule every second into the minds.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 17 May 2013 16:46

krisna,

#1. in large parts of the states, this no demand for the ban.
#2. many hindus who are involved in animal husbandry affected by this issue. this law imposed additional red-tape on those communities. even as the rest of the country is enjoying the benefits of liberalization, for some this ban means reintroduction of the license raj. cows, buffaloes, bulls etc are expensive. grazing lands are hard to come by. one of the things that keeps the govts of ka busy, including yedi himself, is the management of kavalu lands for grazing. something as local an issue as grazing requires involvement of state government. there is already a lot of govt interference/intervention.
#3. on the communal aspects of this issue. please listen to Suffya Pattan. I whole heartedly agree with her. The cow issue is best addressed by govts laying off the issue. That is the only ban required.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne0rYqP3W14

krisna wrote: very poor understanding of the problem.
BJP was never in power for a long time since independence. Congress was ruling all over India. Cow slaughter was in place in many states. gradually it got whittled due to congis secularism.

It was never BJP problem to begin with but they highlighted it along with many others. But BJP got branded as cow Hindu etc party.
But sickular parteis never got branded as muslim or christian parties or anti Hindu parties.
Many sickular parties openly bat for non Hindus in the name of sickularism.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The same could be said of the sikular parties-- siddu promised to remove the cow salughter ban as it is a vote catching one comapried to BJP's ban which is not.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 17 May 2013 16:56

ravi_g wrote:^^ yeh like Atma Ram Antulay. But come on man how could you miss the Antony part. Also on another matter of Atheism having become in arguments what homosexuality was to hollywood, a style statement. You missed that too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_K_Antony
Arackaparambil Kurien Antony (born 28 December 1940)
Profession Politician, Lawyer
Religion Atheism;[2] devotee of Mata Amritanandamayi[3][4]

Minister of Defence Incumbent
Assumed office 26 October 2006
Preceded by Pranab Mukherjee

to each his own saar. you think dream divining is the definition of a traditionally minded hindu, i think birth names donot necessarily fix the outlook/beliefs of a person. i cited his atheism only to point out that antony might not be beholden to "church". whatever that means. you can have the last word on this.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 17 May 2013 17:11

^
'dream divining' - Never came across this phrase and despite effort cannot understand it. So kindly explain.

In any case mine was also a completion of a comment made earlier by other members. Time lines put the wiki accusations about the Raksha Mantri ji, in context.

Though I hold the same views as yours when you say "i think birth names donot necessarily fix the outlook/beliefs of a person". I guess it is a conversation killer.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 May 2013 17:46

ravi_g wrote: I guess it is a conversation killer.

The funny thing is, a congress attack dog of the top order made this statement, and has been used by some one else who has supported congress, to beat the rest of us (not the congress, not the attack dog, not the maino's for nurturing such attack dogs and attacking their own people)

And people blame Advani on why BJP cant sweep India

I used to think Antony is good, after the VKS --> Tatra/ AW/etc etc saga, I feel like I have been made such a chump.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 May 2013 19:40

Continuing from "Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India" Thread

muraliravi wrote:I guess Mr. NiKu is moving towards the congress. Cong has dumped Lalu royally. Niku knows that if he fights alone, he will be over, so as per lensonnews BJP all set to get 20 seats in bihar even if jd(u)-cong ally and that 20 is conservative since no campaign there so far and more importantly, I expect Jd(U) to split and half move to BJP.

If JD(N)

goes with Congress and JD(Rest) go with BJP, where does it leave Lalu? The telephone call between Modi and Lalu, "inquiring about later's health", I think was very strategical!

Sushil Modi later on tried to claim that Lalu would never have taken the call had he known that it was from Narendra Modi! Why? It seemed like damage containment after NaMo's tweet! Can't say whether it was just mischievous or what!

Lately Lalu has gone ahead with his Parivartan Rally, with the main focus on "targeting" NaMo and claiming Nitish to be best of pals with BJP.

“Brothers and sisters of Bihar, ours is a secular State. Be it Narendra Modi or Advani, we will not allow them to rule the country,” Mr. Prasad said.

Citing threats to Muslims from “divisive” forces, Mr. Prasad urged his party to “fight at every nook and corner” for the rights of the minorities. He termed Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) a party of defectors and turncoats and Mr. Kumar “a parrot” of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

If JD(Nitish) and Congress combine, that would in fact help BJP. It means Lalu is free from Congress. He can put on his secular hat and go all out against "communal" BJP, thus splitting the Muslim vote.

Congress already does not have that much of a presence in Bihar: 8.38%. That means Muslims would vote for the coalition which is seen as most able to counter BJP, and that would not be JD(U) after its split, or Congress which is weak. They will vote mostly for Lalu, sinking the prospects of both JD(Nitish) and Congress.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 May 2013 20:37

^^^ Good analysis.

I saw this comment on the survey page on lensonnews, It would be interesting to see what thoughts folks here have on this.

http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... -poll.html

More or less I agree with the findings of the survey. I have never been a supporter of Bihar, but a keen watcher of the politics of Bihar since 1995, when I was the Resident Editor of Navbharat Times, Patna. It was first election of Nitish Kumar after formation of his own Samta Party and not only the media or Bihar, but even the national media were making him the CM of Bihar after the 1995 elections. Then Sri Govindacharya, the BJP's party In Charge of BJP had visited my home. I told him that Lalu was going to form the government and his party (BJP) would be at second place by getting around 40 seats in 324 seats of combined Bihar. He did not agree with me and said that I was promoting Lalu. He was of the view that Nitish Samata Party would get around 116 seats and may form government with the support of anti Lalu parties. I told him that I would be surprised, if his party got more than 15 seats. Ultimately I was proved right. Lalu's Janata Dal got 165 seats alone and with his left partners around 200 seats. BJP was second with 42 seats and Congress third with 29 seats. Samata Party of Nitish could get only 7 seats.

I have never proved wrong in my assessment of the probable results in subsequent elections too. I agree that this survey present the present scenario, but the scenario and the result may change after some time. BJP is not much vocal in support of Narendra Modi in Bihar and not criticizing Nitish in a befitting manner because of the compulsion of power sharing. Once there is breakup and Narendra Modi campaigns in Bihar and takes on Nitish Kumar politically, BJP will gain further. Its vote share will certainly increase. The vote share of BJP may rise up to 37 to 38 percent. Nitish may join hands with Congress and Ramvilas Paswan may tempted to leave Lalu to join hand with Nitish and Congress. So there will be, most probably, a three way contest among BJP, Congress-Nitish-Paswan alliance and Lalu. Muslims loyalty would be divided between thee two anti BJP outfits. They may even votes for BSP candidates, if the candidates are Muslims or even SP candidates, if they are Muslims. In the three cornered contest BJP may get over 30 seats and they may touch to 35. There are constituencies having sizable voters of Muslim Yadav combines and there Muslims would go like to go with Lalu. Today BJP has one Muslim MP from Bihar and he gets almost all votes of Muslim from his constituency Bhagalpur. So if BJP puts two or three more Muslim candidates, even they will get Muslim votes. Anyway, majority of votes cast would be for Lalu and Congress- Nitish- Paswan alliance may finish third in vote percentage and also elected MPs. The 16 percentage Congress got in this survey may be illusory. Muslims might have opted for Congress, but once they see the candidates, their response will be different. So the combined 30 percent of Congress + Nitish is also illusory. Nitish hold on its present 14 percent will get eroded after the campaign of Narendra Modi. Congress, Ninish and Paswan combine may get around 22 percent, while Lalu alone may get slightly more than it.

I think think this is a CON survey by GVL (who is a BJP insider). I am sure congress will have its own surveys. The game is to push Nitish to Cong and make cong think they can dump lalu which they have done. If cong-rjd-paswan had gobe together and niku breaks with bjp, mullahs would have voted en masse to lalu. But now with paswan in cong pocket and niku with cong, its a big mess and the beneficiary would be BJP. Maybe my analysis is wrong, I am not sure if congis or niku will be swayed by this survey. But in any event, BJP stands to gain a lot.

As a 2nd data point, if you see NDTV Aug 2012 Nationwide survey, the question was what % of voters want modi as PM by state. Guj and Rajasthan topped with 85 and 62%. Bihar and Orissa were bottom with 31% and 27%. So the bottom is irrelevant since same NDTV poll and GVL's previous poll came up with same number for Niku as PM in Bihar - 12%. So 31% of NDTV is confirmed by GVL here too as BJP's vote share without a single NaMo campaign or BJP rally post split from JD(U) is 31%.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 May 2013 20:45

Nitish is a bit in a quandary even though he has made his decision. If he stays with BJP led by Modi he loses both his EBC and Mahadalit votebank, and that too to Modi. He also loses any support he gets from Muslims.

If he leaves, he may have a split in his party, and joining up with Congress would still not get him the Muslim votes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 May 2013 21:13

So NiKa is between rock and hard place or in Greek classics style between Scylla and Charybidis or in dehati na ghar ka na ghat ka!'

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 May 2013 22:06

When NaMo is finished with NiKu, NiKu would not be CM, and he will have only 6-7 MPs from Bihar (40).

I would say, if NaMo does become the PM Candidate, then my wild wild guess is Bihar: BJP(19) +7, RJD (10) +6, JD(U) (6) -14, INC (4) +2, LJP (1) +1.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 May 2013 22:30

RajeshA wrote:When NaMo is finished with NiKu, NiKu would not be CM, and he will have only 6-7 MPs from Bihar (40).

I would say, if NaMo does become the PM Candidate, then my wild wild guess is Bihar: BJP(19) +7, RJD (10) +6, JD(U) (6) -14, INC (4) +2, LJP (1) +1.

That is only if he allies with Congress. If he goes alone, whether jd(U) splits or not, it will be a BJP show all the way upto 30-31 seats from the 40. I mean if they can get 30%+ vote share which they seem well on their way to getting and if others are stuck with mid 10's and low 20's, then it is very easily a BJP sweep.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 May 2013 23:21

^^^

Let me take a bet, NaMo and Nitish Kumar will both be in NDA for the longest time.

NaMo may or may not be PM but to both BJP and JDU staying together is far more important.

Its as simple as that.