Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

[member_20317]

^^
Lets hope it doesn't. Would be really sad to start the expedition with a niraadar of the elders. Veterans among cadre may feel let down.

I wish everything moves smoothly with the blessings of the Lord Vighnharta.

[Pranav]

SandeepWeb's translation of Pratap Simha’s column 18 May 2013 column in Kannada Prabha - http://www.sandeepweb.com/2013/05/19/de ... allow-you/

An incident comes to mind. The incident is recorded in Shanti Bhushan’s autobiography, Courting Destiny. The incident occurred sometime in 1978.

Morarji Desai had completed an year as Prime Minister. He began to face threats to his chair. The powerful Janata leader and Home Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh was eyeing Prime Ministership from the beginning. Another leader, Babu Jagjivan Ram too had Prime Ministerial ambitions. Rebellion was brewing at a steady pace. There were whispers of an overnight “revolution” against Morarji Desai.

In these circumstances, a Cabinet Committee comprising four ministers was formed to bring in electoral reforms. The committee included the Home Minister Charan Singh, Law Minister Shanti Bhushan, Information and Broadcasting Minister Lal Krishna Advani, and another Minister, Dr. P.C. Chander. It was decided that the Committee would meet at 11 A.M. Everybody was present except Charan Singh. Neither could the rest of the members begin the meeting without a senior leader like Charan Singh. So they waited. Charan Singh finally arrived and was embarrassed that he had kept them all waiting. And so he remained standing behind the chair and begged everybody’s forgiveness for his latecoming. The other ministers were touched by this gesture coming from such a senior leader and requested him to take his seat.

However, Charan Singh refused to sit, “I’ll not sit until you’ve all forgiven me,” he insisted. And then he explained the reason for his latecoming. “I left home rather early but a journalist accosted me. He asked me if I was eager to become the Prime Minister. I was furious. I told him it wasn’t a great sin to aspire to become the Prime Minister. I asked him if he didn’t desire to become the Editor of a big newspaper if he had the opportunity?” Charan Singh then revealed the inner meaning of this, “I definitely aspire to become the Prime Minister of this country one or the other day. However, I am not indulging in any conspiracy against Morarji Ji. Morarji ji is aged and will die some day. Then I’ll definitely become the PM.”

Chaudhary Charan Singh sat down.

The same afternoon, Shanti Bhushan met Prime Minister Desai with a view to pacify him saying that Charan Singh had no intention of unseating him. However, he didn’t want to use the words of Singh who was confident of his turn after Morarji’s death. Instead, Bhushan said, “Charan Singh told us that it will be his turn on the PM’s chair after it is vacated.” However, Desai was an astute judge of character. He said, “What’s the guarantee that Charan Singh won’t die before me? Although I’m aged, my health is much better than his. Besides, astrologers have told me that I will lose two ministers by the end of this year.” In other words, he was pointing at the exits of Charan Singh and Jagjivan Ram!

Which party, which Government would survive if its own people begin ceaseless bickering and indulge in mutual sabotage? The same fate met the Janata Parivar. If we observe the present condition of the BJP Central leadership, we cannot but help be reminded of this incident.

You really want to ask why?

The 2014 General Elections are some 9-10 months away. Now is the perfect time to boot out the UPA, which is mired in a whirlpool of scandals and scams with new dirt coming out everyday. The Congress party has no face to ask the people of India to vote for it again. However, are these reasons enough for the BJP to ride on the wave of victory? Post Emergency, the Congress was in an even worse condition. However, the same anti-Congress forces that had branded the RSS as the killer of Gandhi got together under the vast umbrella called the Janata Parivar and fought the 1977 elections. The reason was simple. Leaders of the various anti-Congress parties realized that individually none of them could capture power riding on the anti-Congress wave that was pervasive throughout the nation. Which is why they teamed up together and scored a stunning victory.

However, despite having this instructive example in front of them, despite knowing the consequence of having numerous Prime Minister aspirants, what is the behaviour of the current BJP Central leadership today?

Earlier this Wednesday, in an interview to Times Now, the BJP’s drama queen Uma Bharati declared that “Being a crowd puller does not make any one a prime ministerial candidate.” In an interview in 2010, when Sushma Swaraj was asked if Narendra Modi would campaign for the Bihar state polls, she said, “It is not a given that Modi’s charisma will work everywhere.” Late last year, when Nitin Gadkari had to resign as BJP president in the wake of allegations of a scam, senior RSS leader M.G. Vaidya quipped, “Modi’s hand is behind the allegations levelled against Gadkari.” Elsewhere, he also said that declaring Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate would help the Opposition parties. And then we have K.N. Govindacharya who seems to open his mouth solely to cast aspersions on people of his own party. This was the same person who famously called Atal Bihari Vajpayee a “mask.”

Amidst all this. we have the curious phenomenon of some sections in the BJP clamouring for the elevation of a youth named L.K. Advani, aged 86 years, as the next Prime Minister of a country in which 65% of the people are 35 years old. This selfsame L.K. Advani could attract less than 2000 people for his rally during the recently-concluded Karnataka elections. Yet, while a Sushma Swaraj claims that “there is still opportunity for L.K. Advani to become the next PM,” L.K. Advani declares that “I am reminded of Vajpayee whenever Sushma Swaraj makes a speech.” And thus proceeds the grand charade of mutual back-scratching. Not to be left behind, Shatrughan Sinha and Yashwant Sinha sway their respective heads, joining in this Advani-bhajan.

Exactly who are they fighting against? What is the intent, the goal behind such statements? Instead of working to unseat the Congress, why are they behaving as if the sole aim of their lives is to prevent declaring Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate? What message does this send out to the Opposition parties?

The time when people entered politics with the noble and the only intention of serving people has passed long ago. However, does that mean that everybody has the automatic right to aspire for the highest post in the country? Before even dreaming the dream of becoming the PM, have the BJP leaders even considered whether they deserve it? Writing in Firstpost, R. Jagannathan lists out the BJP’s 7 Deadly Sins. He observes that the BJP lacks any kind of central leadership. Its real leaders are all in the states – Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Sushil Modi, Vasundhara Raje, Raman Singh and Manohar Parikkar, probably in this order of importance. The headquarters generals are people with bloated egos. They can bark before TV cameras, but cannot win a single seat on their own – from LK Advani to Sushma Swaraj to Arun Jaitley.

Don’t you feel that the assessment is accurate?

Let’s take the example of Sushma Swaraj who aspires to become the Prime Minister and is attempting to outsmart rivals in her own party. What are her qualifications? What is her ability? After the BJP lost Delhi thanks to the feud between Madan Lal Khurana and Sahib Singh Verma, the BJP Leadership realized that it would be tough to win back the state. And so it brought in Sushma Swaraj, an import to the BJP from the Janata Parivar, and fought the 1989 state polls thinking that they would win on the strength of her charisma. The result: the BJP lost Delhi and since then, has never been able to recover it. You cannot find even one more example of this occurrence in any of the states that the BJP has ruled. In the recent Uttaranchal elections, the BJP entered the fray by declaring B.C. Khanduri as the CM candidate at the last moment. It might have lost the elections but there’s a difference of just two seats that separated it from the victorious Congress. However, the party was humiliatingly routed in Delhi under the stewardship of Sushma Swaraj. Additionally, Swaraj who was elected to the Lok Sabha from South Delhi abandoned it in 1998. In 1999, she contested against Sonia Gandhi from Bellary and lost. It was during that campaign that she met the Reddy Brothers (and Sriramulu), who’re now in jail. After her loss in Bellary, she entered the Rajya Sabha in 2000 and was subsequently given the Information and Broadcasting Ministry. Besides, what exactly are her contributions as I&B Minister and Health Minister? Even today, people take the names of B.C. Khanduri, Sunil Prabhu, Ram Naik, Arun Shourie, and Jaswant Singh with respect, recognizing their signal contributions to the nation. Nobody even mentions Sushma Swaraj. When she wanted to contest for the Lok Sabha again, she chose Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh after the seat was vacated by Shivraj Singh Chauhan who became the Chief Minister of the state. Why? Why didn’t she contest from South Delhi again? Simply because she knew that Vidisha is the impregnable stronghold of the BJP. What does the fact that a Prime Minister aspirant seeks safe seats indicate? Had Shivraj Singh Chauhan not become the Chief Minister, had he not provided good governance in the state, had Madhya Pradesh not been with the BJP, had Digvijay Singh not vowed not to return to Madhya Pradesh for 10 years, which other safe seat Sushma Swaraj would have been forced to seek out some other safe seat! Besides, isn’t Sushma Swaraj from Haryana? What exactly is her value there? Does she at least have the courage to contest from South Delhi for she has made Delhi her home for a number of years now? And do we have even one instance where she has displayed maturity? When the Congress won the 2004 elections and Sonia Gandhi was all set to become Prime Minister, this selfsame Sushma Swaraj thundered that she would tonsure her head, wear white clothes, and eat grains. Is this how a so-called political activist and senior leader behaves?

Now for Advani. Nobody can point fingers at his capabilities. This was the man who built the BJP from scratch. He was largely instrumental in taking it to power from its paltry 2 seats in the Lok Sabha in 1984. Anybody who disagrees with this assessment is either ignorant or ungrateful. However, should we still tolerate his unquenchable prime ministerial ambition, which is what is proving to be disastrous to the party only because he built up the party? Should we tolerate the Advani-for-PM faction in the party which is busy giving out statements in the media via remote control? In case Advani still seriously believes that he deserves to be the PM, what are the steps he’s taking to fulfill it? Any leader whatever his misgivings, must jump into the battlefield with at least a show of supreme confidence that he/she will win. Isn’t it his responsibility to motivate his people that “victory will be ours” and then fight with such an attitude? Advani began blogging during the run up to the 2009 General Elections. However, what is the impression one gets upon reading the blog posts he’s written in the last one year or so? A few months ago, he had written a post that said that there is a possibility that a non-Congress and a non-BJP Government would come to power. Speaking at Chitrakoot in Madhya Pradesh On 3 April, he said that no Government could be formed without the support of the Congress or the BJP. What does this mean? Doesn’t it mean that he admits that the BJP would not come to power in 2014? If that is the case, why isn’t Advani willing to let go of his PM ambition and make way for any leader who is ready to lead the BJP to electoral victory?

Advani must decide whether he wants to be a journalist or a politician. If he tries to be both, this will be end result. Advani has also indulged in giving sermons on corruption keeping Karnataka specifically in mind. One result of sermonizing was the fact that it was Yeddyurappa who paid the price. However why has he done nothing to unseat the Congress which now resembles the nation’s of Corruption HQ? Indeed, Advani, Sushma Swaraj, and Ananth Kumar have done nothing to shake the Congress, have done nothing to corner it despite an avalanche of more than 20 scams that have tumbled out. We have the example of an Arun Shourie whose expose resulted in the resignation of A.R. Antulay. We have heard of a Feroze Gandhi who used to corner his own father in law Nehru, in the Parliament. And we also have the example of how the entire Parliament would wait and listen in silence when Vajpayee used to speak. What has Advani who wrote reams on corruption done about the corruption in the Congress Government at the centre? In fact, it was Anna Hazare who led a movement against corruption and not the principal Opposition party, the BJP. Back then, the BJP was in such a deep slumber that only Varun Gandhi went over to Jantar Mantar and showed solidarity with Anna.

When the BJP lost in 2009, it dubbed the Electronic Voting Machine as Election Winning Machine. However, did it pursue the issue? It is Subramanian Swamy who has pursued every scam from 2G to the EVMs. Why does the entire leadership of the BJP lack the guts that this one man has displayed? The long-winded speeches that Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj make in the parliament increasingly appear to be stage-managed exercises in eyewash. They have no impact or consequence beyond the TV talk show of that evening. Indeed, the Congress handed over gargantuan scams like the 2G and Coalgate on a platter to the BJP. Did the BJP need issues bigger than these to bay for the Congress’ blood?

Recently, my friend Sandeep Balakrishna who interviewed Arun Shourie recounted how Shourie told him that “Parliament has become a stage for drama.” Do you need an example of the truth in Shourie’s words? In last year’s Monsoon Session of the Parliament, L.K. Advani launched a fusillade against the UPA, calling it an illegitimate Government. As if on cue, the Congress party’s Mother India, Sonia Gandhi, displayed anger on her face. Her loyal MPs fell on Advani. TV shows debated this episode endlessly. Advani apologized. What however was carefully buried was the crucial discussion on the Assam violence thanks to illegal immigration from Bangladesh. How’s this for drama where everybody protects everybody’s back? Why was it necessary for Advani to call the UPA an illegitimate Government in a session where he had to actually raise the important issue of the Assam violence? This is a classic example of what Arun Shourie terms as the homogenization of the Indian political class. Both the ruling and the opposition parties are now hand in glove.

Dear Advani, Jaitely. and Sushma: this is the reason that there’s a nationwide clamour for Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister.

On the other side, most politicians are opposed to Modi becoming the PM because that event would expose their true colours and threaten the existing power structure. People might criticize Modi for the Gujarat riots. However, there’s no denying that he’s perhaps the last hope for this country. An ill-informed Uma Bharati who spouts a statement that “Being a crowd puller does not make anyone a prime ministerial candidate” needs to recall the 1990s where the BJP called for electoral reforms so that Indian elections could be modelled after the US-style Presidential system. Why? Simply because Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani were the most popular leaders back then. Their rallies used to draw lakhs of people. And then there was the typhoon of the Ayodhya movement. Despite its success, the BJP’s seat tally didn’t cross 120 in 1991. Thus, if a US-style system of polls were implemented in India, there was every chance that Vajpayee would become the Prime Minister based on popular mandate.

Today, if there is any leader in the BJP who can deliver 180-200 seats, it is none other than Narendra Damodardas Modi. Equally, today, people do not vote merely for a political party—they vote based on the leader who is projected as the face of the party. If the face of the party projected as the Prime Ministerial (or Chief Ministerial) candidate is a strong, capable, and impeccable leader, they vote for the party even if the MP or MLA candidate of the party in their constituency isn’t all that capable. Which other leader in the BJP apart from Narendra Modi has these qualities?

Dear Mr. Advani: you have been projected as the BJP’s PM candidate once. We’ve seen the outcome. Enough. Else, the lust for gaddi that you and your sycophants have might swallow the party. Beware!

[Supratik]

ABP-Nielsen mood of the nation poll is on. Bihar situation is complicated.

[prahaar]

ABP-Nielsen survey for MH does not make sense. Gives only one seat to MNS, non-sense survey in case of MH.

[vivek.rao]

http://www.firstpost.com/blogs/sonia-ga ... =cat_india

When the going gets tough…..the tough are nowhere to be seen:

Where was Sonia Gandhi when outrage was boiling over rather disconcertingly on the streets of Delhi – June 2011 & December 2012 – and threatening to singe and rock the nation? Also, why was she conspicuous by her absence when the MPs where debating the Criminal Law Amendment Bill on 19 March 2013?

Why is it that the most powerful person in the country is nowhere to be seen when some soothing gentle words, the empathy of a concerned elder, the soft touch of someone who knows right from wrong – politics be damned – are most needed. Whilst it is true that she muttered a few platitudes after things had cooled down a tad, her absence and silence at the most crucial moments were staggeringly devoid of leadership qualities.

Lofty, high-minded & stunningly vacuous:

Sonia Gandhi has often hinted at some sweeping changes on issues such as criminality in politics, overall electoral landscape and the criminal justice system. However, inaction invariably follows – words, I suspect, have no meaning. This is an aspect that the MSM has stoically refused to debate, discuss and analyse – blame it on the gift for the tediously peripheral?

Perhaps the time has come for the MSM to stop paying obeisance at the high altar of suzerainty; asking some valid and probing questions to the host of Congress leaders who keep popping up on TV channels, would be a great place to start. While we are on them, why is it that the novel process of thinking before speaking eludes their flailing intellect not infrequently, and the few times it doesn’t, it reminds one of the misfiring of a defective carburetor? Take a look at the list below – it may not be exhaustive, but there is enough meat in there to ask Mrs. G a few tough, probing and honest questions:

And finally….

“When extraordinary power is allotted to any individual in a Government, he becomes the centre, round which every kind of corruption generates and forms” noted Thomas Paine in Rights of Man in 1791. He then went on to state, “What is called splendour of the throne is no other than the corruption of the State. It is made up of a band of parasites living in luxurious indolence out of public taxes.

When once such a vicious system is established it becomes the guard and protection of all inferior abuses”. The fount of corruption, he goes on to note “is the last person to promote a spirit of reform, lest, in the event, it should reach to himself. It is always in his interest to defend inferior abuses, as so many outworks to protect the citadel; and on this species of political fortification, all the parts that have such a common dependence that it is never to be expected they will attack each other….it is the master-fraud which shelters all others. By admitting a participation of the spoil, it makes itself friends; and when it ceases to do this it will cease to be the idol of courtiers”.

http://www.firstpost.com/blogs/rahul-ga ... 21569.html

How about performance on some key human development indices? I could dig out an interesting bit of data which clubs Amethi and Rae Bareli, and then compares it to Purulia [one of the relatively poorer and under-developed districts in West Bengal]. Please feel free to build on or fine-tune this with fresh inputs of your own:

1. People below poverty line: Purulia 31%; Rae Bareli-Amethi 54%

2. Families with electricity: Purulia 29%; Rae Bareli-Amethi 14%

3. Per capita expenditure: Purulia Rs 461; Rae Bareli-Amethi Rs 385

4. Vaccinated children: Purulia 84%; Rae Bareli-Amethi 16%

5. Neo-natal deaths: Purulia 46 per 1,000; Rae Bareli-Amethi 83

6. Fatality below five years: Purulia 89 per 1,000; Rae Bareli-Amethi 160

I wonder what stopped BJP Delhi leaders to go to Amethi and question the development model of Maino clan. Explain why this is so bad in spite of all Right to A to RIght to Z bills passed by Maino clan.

Wonder what some of the readers who keep questioning Modi's plans or inclusiveness have to say about this in Maino clan constituencies?

[Sanku]

Sanku ji,

I am not turning anybody into a villain.

RajeshA-ji; I think you should be careful, I say this as some one who broadly shares your outlook.

With respects.

Lets leave it at that.

[Sushupti]

[Sushupti]

Other day Mr. Moorthy said something good about Modi and this happened to him.

Income tax department slaps Rs 582 crore tax demand notice on Infosys

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 136443.cms

[Sushupti]

[Sushupti]

In this chat A Shourie talks about a "real govt bigger than present establishment" which has presence across political parties. Around 1:04

[vivek.rao]

@bharattdesai @jitengajaria @sushmaswarajbjp Modi effect could be +5% natl voteshare=approx +55 seats. BJP can ignore that at its peril

Minhaz Merchant ‏@minhazmerchant 4h
@biswajeetdash Yes, Rajnath knows imp of UP. Survey's 23 cd become 43 with right leadership, reducing Nitish's importance

[ramana]

Sanku, Drop me an e-mail.

ramana

[RoyG]

Looks like Amit Shah will be managing UP. Good news for Modi faction.

[Sushupti]

Plum post to Shah hints at Modi's bigger role in BJP's plan for LS polls

http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-new ... 62713.aspx

[krisna]

picture is worth a 100000000 words.

[Muppalla]

TWIW

Advani is strictly asked to not write blog and asked not to criticize the party or its members in public.

[Sushupti]

[Sushupti]

What Makes Narendra Modi a Middle-Class Hero?

http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/ ... lass-hero/

[RamaY]

I would have waited for his next 3 tweets before posting this. bRaman garu is famous for changing his opinion often.

[VikramS]

BRawMan starts liking Modi when his health is not good.
If it seems he will beat the cancer he gets back to dynasty worship

[sum]

^^ Really tough to understand "luminaries" like C.Fair, B.RAW-man etc who seem to swing from one end to another every few weeks!!

[Sushupti]

I would have waited for his next 3 tweets before posting this. bRaman garu is famous for changing his opinion often.

Some one asked him to check if his account hasn't been hacked?

[munna]

TWIW

Advani is strictly asked to not write blog and asked not to criticize the party or its members in public.

Yup can confirm the same. But he managed to save Shanta Kumar using all sorts of emotionbaazi. Damn!

[habal]

picture is worth a 100000000 words.

That's not fair, Rahul baba thinks the old man is coming to touch his feet.

[Prem]

[img]I would have waited for his next 3 tweets before posting this. bRaman garu is famous for changing his opinion often.

Kissi Bhoot Ne Pakar liya Lagta Hai !!

Iss Rang Badalti nature mei, Rawman ki Niyyat Theek Nahi
Yeh Ho gya Lagta Diiiiwana , Trust Na Karro issss Dogal Par!!

Chehra asli Dikha apna ,yeh Modi Muhabbat Rehne Dho
Desh Ko Sambhalo Bhartwasi, Iss Secular Ki Neeyat Theek Nahi.

Main Kaisse maanu Baat Teri, Tum pey kissi ko Yakeen Nahi
Yeh Bipolar Batte Mattt Cherro, Mind Ki halat Theek nahi !!

[rkirankr]

Other day Mr. Moorthy said something good about Modi and this happened to him.

Income tax department slaps Rs 582 crore tax demand notice on Infosys

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 136443.cms

But Mr. Murthy is longer no with Infosys. He retired right?

[Arjun]

But Mr. Murthy is longer with Infosys. He retired right?

He remains one of the key shareholders...though Sushupti's CT seems a bit far-fetched.

[Hari Seldon]

^^ I agree that it is far-fetched. At least as co-incidental as the raid on Messr Stalin's chennai home the day after MuKa walked out of UPA.... Or the I-T raids and E-D harassment on Baba Ramdev's orgs ever since his massive Ramlila maidan protest... or as co-incidental as the clean chit sri pawan kr bansal received from the CBI just days ago after the SC summer recess... or as coincidental as... you get the idea I hope...

[Mahendra]

As far fetched as the 'sun rises in the east theory'

Anyway folks, haven't been following the politics scene lately, can someone enlighten me on whether 'love hawala err sorry halva purush ' has officially been given his farewell match yet, or is he still intent on getting hit wicket after intentionally running-out the best batsman in his side.

[Yagnasri]

Both match fixing and spot fixing is going on. INC taking "high moral posture" now. They want to remove "curropt" ministers everywhere. Latest news is AP Ministers are adament and not ready to resign. This kind of revolt is new for INC and started happening everywhere. In KA Siddaramayya had to be given full "freedom" to appoint his own people and all old congress leaders of normal background are all being sidelined by him. Earlier Micro management is no longer there. If every aspect of party is not controlled by INC then it will be creating YSR type leaders everywhere. Is Mafia becoming weak???

[Hari Seldon]

^^I noticed the same thing.

INC has been allergic to state level mass leaders - potential regional satraps and challengers to the dilli saltanat in the YSR mold.

Now seems like the distaste is there but the ability to put down state level strongmen is evaporating. This is dangerous. A more grassroots level entrepreneurial congress can be ever more ruthless, greedy and mercantile than the one we have now. Or so I fear. It will also be harder to defeat.

[Pranav]

NaMo picks up another significant endorsement - Sadhvi Ritambhara.

Occasion is inauguration of a Vatsalyagram ashram in Kheda district of Gujarat.

http://t.co/vWaAC0xucN

[vivek.rao]

Both match fixing and spot fixing is going on. INC taking "high moral posture" now. They want to remove "curropt" ministers everywhere. Latest news is AP Ministers are adament and not ready to resign. This kind of revolt is new for INC and started happening everywhere. In KA Siddaramayya had to be given full "freedom" to appoint his own people and all old congress leaders of normal background are all being sidelined by him. Earlier Micro management is no longer there. If every aspect of party is not controlled by INC then it will be creating YSR type leaders everywhere. Is Mafia becoming weak???

They have to grind their teeth and clean their fists and bear it until UPA3 can be manipulated.

[muraliravi]

Guys,

One thing that we may all be missing in this whole BJP-JD(U) issue and NaMo is the congress-rjd alliance. I know that they did not ally in 2009.

All the polls on Bihar show a sweep for BJP-JD(U) at 33/40 seats. There is a major flaw in that and that was revealed by ABP yesterday. They said Cong-RJD-LJP go together, then NDA will be 20 and UPA will get 18. The lensonnews survey by GVL does not take this cong-rjd-ljp alliance into account at all.

Let me just summarize all the surveys here for us to discuss:

1. BJP+JD(U) vs RJD+LJP vs Cong: 33 / 3 / 2 (Lensonnews/ABP/Timesnow)
2. BJP vs JD(U) vs RJD+LJP vs Cong: 29 / 2 / 4 / 3 (Lensonnews)
3. BJP vs JD(U) + Cong vs RJD+LJP: 19 / 16 / 3 (Lensonnews)
4. BJP+JD(U) vs Cong+RJD_LJP: 20 / 18 (ABP/Indirect dervivation from Lensonnews vote shares)

Now even if BJP+JD(U) go together they wont do well if congress ends up playing game with lalu and paswan.

But here is the nightmare scenario, if BJP and JD(U) split and Cong buries differences with lalu, then both BJP and JD(U) are toast, UPA will get 30/40 seats.

Any thoughts guys, I have taken a 180 turn on my ballistic thinking of ditch Nitish.

[Sanku]

One thing that we may all be missing in this whole BJP-JD(U) issue and NaMo is the congress-rjd alliance.


Any thoughts guys, I have taken a 180 turn on my ballistic thinking of ditch Nitish.

I am going to offer a coconut to Shri Gajanan saar. That are my thoughts on your views.

[muraliravi]

One thing that we may all be missing in this whole BJP-JD(U) issue and NaMo is the congress-rjd alliance.


Any thoughts guys, I have taken a 180 turn on my ballistic thinking of ditch Nitish.

I am going to offer a coconut to Shri Gajanan saar. That are my thoughts on your views.

I agree sir. But here is some stuff that I still believe and I guess you will agree with me.

1. JD(U) is taking BJP for a ride by offering just 15 seats. In my opinion it should 22-18 sharing. with 18 for BJP.

2. This whole JD(U) getting muslim vote is not correct. I proved once before with my vote share analysis that Jd(U) hardly gets any muslim vote. maybe he is getting a small amount. So I would say we should try and explore the real reasons as to why he is opposing modi.

If you want I cant repost my vote share analysis.

[Sanku]

Muraliji; If congress and Laloo indeed team up, I will bet that Nitish will whole heartedly support NaMo. Equations will change.

About seat shares, I agree.

[muraliravi]

Muraliji; If congress and Laloo indeed team up, I will bet that Nitish will whole heartedly support NaMo. Equations will change.

About seat shares, I agree.

Can you/others explain in detail why lalu and congress did not contest in alliance in 2009 LS or the 2010 Assembly. Whats the problem between the 2.

[Pranav]

I am going to offer a coconut to Shri Gajanan saar. That are my thoughts on your views.

I agree sir. But here is some stuff that I still believe and I guess you will agree with me.

1. JD(U) is taking BJP for a ride by offering just 15 seats. In my opinion it should 22-18 sharing. with 18 for BJP.

2. This whole JD(U) getting muslim vote is not correct. I proved once before with my vote share analysis that Jd(U) hardly gets any muslim vote. maybe he is getting a small amount. So I would say we should try and explore the real reasons as to why he is opposing modi.

If you want I cant repost my vote share analysis.

There was an interesting poll recently by ABP News-Nielsen where they compared BJP votes share with Modi as undisputed leader with BJP vote share without Modi.

The difference is an astonishing 13%: 36% without Modi and 49% with Modi. (http://www.indiantelevision.com/release ... nrel20.php)

Nitish has serious corruption issues, is a staunch believer in casteism and basically has no new ideas. He had to face a lot of anger in his recent yatras in Bihar.

If anybody wants to use Nitish to shove Modi aside, that line of thinking should be utterly consigned to the garbage dump.

[Sanku]

Can you/others explain in detail why lalu and congress did not contest in alliance in 2009 LS or the 2010 Assembly. Whats the problem between the 2.

Actually there was no major reason, there were two points,

1) Raowl baba wanted to "put his stamp" on the picture and show how he was going to take congress to great things.
2) Laloo had become a liability, he was asking for "too much" for what he was offering. To few seats in sharing to much of "get CBI to close the cases" etc etc.
3) It was perceived that Congress will repeat the UP case, of getting more seats independently (as in 1)

There could be reasons under wraps, but I am not aware of those.