West Asia News and Discussions

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 May 2013 11:29

Most account say 70 % in SAA hand , cant also go by what Sunni rebels say.

Syria: After Qusayr, Regime Eyes Aleppo

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 May 2013 11:59

But you can go by rebels, Hezbollah, regime TV who release videos of areas under control, also satellite messages and independent reporters. Fact is regime media hasn't shown much to support their statement but then again they claimed last week to have taken Qusayr and as you see they are contradicting themselves.

Expectation of Qusayr to fall was a week ago considering the Syrian regime forces and Hezbollah threw everything at it.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 May 2013 12:09

Its a known fact that in past rebels have doctored video footage and rebels them self claim that they are badly battered in Qusayr ... SAA and Hizb have attacking from all sides and since its a gurella warfare with every street and lane to fight for and also booby trapped it will take time but many sources have said SAA is in majority control of Qusayr hence the plan to next target Allepo

Seems like Rebels and SNC are failing to see eye to eye and rift is created

Syrian rebel groups accuse SNC of 'failing to represent the revolution'

Syrian rebels have launched a sudden attack on the Syrian opposition coalition outside the country. A statement issued by the Revolutionary Movement in Syria said the coalition had failed to represent the Syrian revolution.

The statement says the National Coalition has allowed itself to be taken over by regional and international players. Issued in the name of the Revolutionary Movement, it says the Coalition is incapable of fulfilling its duties due to chronic internal discord.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 May 2013 12:26

we should open a new thread on the "21st century shia-sunni war of dominance" - which the syria conflict is the first full chapter of

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 May 2013 12:59

shyamd wrote:But you can go by rebels, Hezbollah, regime TV who release videos of areas under control, also satellite messages and independent reporters. Fact is regime media hasn't shown much to support their statement but then again they claimed last week to have taken Qusayr and as you see they are contradicting themselves.

Expectation of Qusayr to fall was a week ago considering the Syrian regime forces and Hezbollah threw everything at it.

Once you have taken control of the streets, and entry points. Rebels sitting in have already been isolated. Now they do not have access to supplies and their days/hours are numbered. It is a question of how quickly you can pick them off. Since they do not have escape route, they will lay boob traps to enhance casualties on other side.

You never know who is on rebel side, they could also be elite forces, chechens, SEAL, GSA, SAS types also lent by western instigators. So it's not as if a 'rag-tag' bunch who have only recently learnt how to operate a gun is laying traps for battle-hardened hizbollah types. There is a lot of activity in the shadows here with a lot of vested interest

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 29 May 2013 13:34

Lalmohan wrote:we should open a new thread on the "21st century shia-sunni war of dominance" - which the syria conflict is the first full chapter of

That would be the wrong way to look at it ... the war of the western bloc against Assad is very similar to the wars against Saddam and Gaddafi (even though Saddam and Gaddafi were Sunnis).

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 29 May 2013 13:49

Qusayr is considered a strategic location and key part in their supply route. Moreover, it will act directly on the morale of the troops on either side depending on who is winning. So I think we will keep on hearing about this town for sometime. It is not a big town and many alwaites have left. So, SAA will be in control soon and lot of rebel hit and runs will continue.
One thing we can hear more from now onwards is the stories of the atrocitities in Qusayr, whether real or imagined!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 May 2013 15:21

The Rebels have already put in a propaganda that SAA has used chemical weapons in Qusayr , prompting France to investigate into it ......LOL

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 May 2013 16:18

Russia's MoD hinted that if EU drops embargo, Russia can supply to Syria what it likes.

Translated

"Every solution has two sides. If one party removes the restrictions, the other party may already consider yourself is not obliged to fulfill past commitments," - he said, adding that this is the logic of events.
http://ria.ru/arab_sy/20130529/940146818.html

Declaring embargo on arms supplies to Syrian opposition was originally dubious - Lavrov

The declaration of an embargo on supplying weapons to the Syrian opposition was originally a dubious step and its cancellation will complicate the situation and create hindrances to convening an international conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in the wake of the EU’s decision not to prolong the ban on weapons supplies to the Syrian opposition.

“From the very beginning of this conflict we have repeatedly warned of the risk it may go international, but the flow of militants kept growing steadily from outside the country, including Libya, other North African countries, the Middle East, Europe and other regions,” Lavrov said. “Also, the flow of weapons to the militants increased, although providing weapons to non-government actors is illegitimate by international law.” In that connection he recalled a decision by the EU foreign ministers against prolonging the embargo on supplying weapons to the Syrian opposition.

“This poses rather serious questions. Firstly, under international law arms supplies to non-government actors are illegitimate. The international arms treaty the United Nations coordinated just recently - it was initiated by a number of EU member-states, including Britain - says, too, that arms supplies to non-government actors are impermissible, at least without the consent of the countries in whose territory those actors are present. Incidentally, the EU has an effective code of conduct in the sphere of arms export. That code imposes a direct ban on such supplies.”

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 May 2013 18:29

I think thats why they recognised SNC/opposition as the sole representative of the people. The US hasn't done that yet, nor have the EU but the Arab League states have (the ones sending the weapons).
--
Republican guard moving to Qusair for the first time and Hezbollah rushing more troops to Qusayr per latest news.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 May 2013 19:19

Pranav wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:we should open a new thread on the "21st century shia-sunni war of dominance" - which the syria conflict is the first full chapter of
That would be the wrong way to look at it ... the war of the western bloc against Assad is very similar to the wars against Saddam and Gaddafi (even though Saddam and Gaddafi were Sunnis).

it doesnt look to me as though the west understands what its doing or what is going on - they are trying to make themselves relevant and don't know what to do. the drive for this war is coming from riyadh/doha versus tehran/beirut. russia seems to have a clearer idea of what to do. EU does not, US is unclear. but then i retain my doubts about understanding this particular war...

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 May 2013 19:29

Why take Qusayr? Just surround it, and let the rebels sitting there slowly deplete their own
resources. May be occassional airraid and artillary shelling will keep them busy. The regime
and Hez can boobytrap the exits so that rebels can't flee easily. Rather, the regime can now
amass their resources between Aleppo and the Turkish border.

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 May 2013 21:15

Lalmohan wrote:
Pranav wrote:
That would be the wrong way to look at it ... the war of the western bloc against Assad is very similar to the wars against Saddam and Gaddafi (even though Saddam and Gaddafi were Sunnis).
it doesnt look to me as though the west understands what its doing or what is going on - they are trying to make themselves relevant and don't know what to do. the drive for this war is coming from riyadh/doha versus tehran/beirut. russia seems to have a clearer idea of what to do. EU does not, US is unclear. but then i retain my doubts about understanding this particular war...

they are doing according to plan, in some place they succeed and in some their success is delayed. But their goals are still met. Can you believe me, if I say that increase of 'negativity' is a goal. Their goal in Syria is removal of Assad, just like removal of other leaders by hook or crook. When you remove away all the tall statesmen, it is upto west to provide 'moral leadership' to the world. That is also their goal.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 May 2013 21:25

Lalmohan wrote: it doesnt look to me as though the west understands what its doing or what is going on - they are trying to make themselves relevant and don't know what to do. the drive for this war is coming from riyadh/doha versus tehran/beirut. russia seems to have a clearer idea of what to do. EU does not, US is unclear. but then i retain my doubts about understanding this particular war...

Simple... West is unsure of the aftermath of Asad. Will it be an afghanistan? Thats the question...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 May 2013 21:32

Or will it be Lebanon?

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 29 May 2013 21:40

Super duper random whim super power generator GCC can't take Assad out despite having thrown all that they had at him for the past 18 months. Surely, he must have some sections of the society backing him. We've been told about defections, imminent Turkish invasions waghera waghera with dates by which Assad will be 'phinished' . Perhaps nobody understands this war, least of all, those who claim to have upper hand. TBH, only Vijay Mallya and the makers of Lays potato chips are the only ones who truly understand what is going on.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 May 2013 21:52

syrian_war == government(alawite/shia) versus rebels(sunni-seculars and sunni-wahabis)
the west wants asad removed because he is backed by iran and iran is about to build a bomb and is hostile to the west
the west wants to back saudi and qatar who say they are backing the rebels but are simultaneously feeding the jihad
the west is ending up shooting itself in the foot

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 May 2013 21:54

LM, What is Syrian demographics like? In the long run that will determine the outcome.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 May 2013 22:04

roughly
20-25% alawite
60-65% sunni
rest - christians and others

the alawites are close to being munafiqeen, they have been routinely slaughtered from medieval times by the sunnis. the french colonial period saw them being elevated above the sunnis to maintain control post ottoman collapse. asad the elder grew out of this movement - and after ww2 and baath'ism, the alawite led 'secular syrian' government took over. the sunnis continued to grumble and there were many uprisings - put down fiercely by the alawites/government. syria continued to be a lead arab frontline state against israel - not least because the two of them seek to dominate lebanon and its different religious groupings.

this time the sunnis are more organised and have external help. there are lots of jehadi groups operating with them - with a clear agenda which involves the usual caliphate stuff, plus a re-massacre of the alawites as its logical conclusion. that basically guarantees that 20% of the population are not going to go down without a bitter fight to the end.

hizbollah joining on behalf of the alawites is entirely logical from the shia-sunni war prism

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 May 2013 22:23

Random thoughts:
- So if an Alwaite victory would mean a defeat of the radical Sunni tide sweeping the Mid East?

-Miles Copeland the US intel operative wrote a book "Game of Nations" in which he says US first experimented with how to launch a coup first in Syria in the early 1950s. They needed a small volatile country to try out the mechanics.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 29 May 2013 22:28

I think Syria might end up being a case where the Sunni majority realize, radical/militant islam is going to lose them support from the West. The only party that can decisively swing this war their way. Russian fulmination notwithstanding.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 29 May 2013 22:33

You are assuming that the Sunni majority do not want more Islam

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 May 2013 22:42

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... le-too-far

EU decision to arm Syria's rebels could prove a gamble too far
By opting to arm opposition forces, Britain and France risk fuelling a speedy and devastating escalation of the conflict

"In any case, the Assad regime has reason to believe reports that surfaced in the US this year that the CIA is actively assisting hostile Gulf states in channelling arms to opposition forces. So as he studies the diplomatic runes over his breakfast coffee, he may well ask himself what has changed."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... le-too-far

EU decision to arm Syria's rebels could prove a gamble too far

By opting to arm opposition forces, Britain and France risk fuelling a speedy and devastating escalation of the conflict

Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 28 May 2013 13.06 BST

Link to video: Syria: William Hague defends EU decision to lift arms embargo

The EU's reluctant decision to allow, in effect, the arming of Syria's rebels, forcefully driven through by Britain and France at the expense of European unity, amounts to a huge diplomatic gamble that the ruling regime can be dragged under duress into meaningful negotiations about a political transition. Right now, this gamble looks like a long shot.

Just how dangerous the move could prove to be was swiftly demonstrated by an announcement by Russia, President Bashar al-Assad's main ally and arms supplier, that it would deliver advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, despite concerns expressed by Israel and others. The deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said the missiles were a stabilising factor that could dissuade "hotheads" from plunging into the conflict. He also warned that the EU action had directly harmed next month's peace talks in Geneva.

William Hague, the foreign secretary, has argued that the threat that European countries may supply arms to the Free Syrian Army, via the opposition Syrian National Coalition, is a powerful and indispensable lever in a toolbox of measures, including longstanding asset, trade and travel sanctions, designed to bring Assad to heel.

Speaking after Sunday's Brussels meeting, Hague said: "It was important for Europe to send a clear signal to the Assad regime that it has to negotiate seriously, and that all options remain on the table if it refuses to do so. Tonight EU nations have done just that … Thousands of lives are at stake in Syria. Our focus remains on efforts to secure a successful outcome at the forthcoming Geneva conference, and a political transition that ends the conflict allows refugees to return to their homes and prevents further radicalisation in Syria."

Whether Assad will be impressed by the Anglo-French demarche (no other EU state looks likely to get militarily involved in the Syrian quagmire) is open to serious question. Under the EU agreement, no weapons will be supplied before autumn. And Britain and France must accept safeguards, including ensuring any arms are used only to protect civilians, an almost impossible condition to fulfil.

The composition and agenda of the Geneva conference is still up in the air. It is not clear how, or whether, the regime and the opposition will be represented.

Far from being susceptible to threats, Assad has doggedly resisted demands to stand down. He knows his replacement as president is a non-negotiable precondition for the US, Britain and France, as well as the rebels, in any settlement. Russia's support has been strengthened, and he has nowhere to run.
Bashar Assad Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad. Photograph: AP

Assad would be more worried, perhaps, if the EU move were followed by similar action by the Obama administration, as congressional Republicans, such as Senator John McCain, would like. Some observers believe Britain acted as a stalking horse for the US in the EU talks, softening up the ground for an American intervention – not the first time London has played this ignoble role.

In any case, the Assad regime has reason to believe reports that surfaced in the US this year that the CIA is actively assisting hostile Gulf states in channelling arms to opposition forces. So as he studies the diplomatic runes over his breakfast coffee, he may well ask himself what has changed.

What has changed is that the two-year civil war is ever closer to fulfilling predictions that it will spill into neighbouring countries, principally Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Turkey, and spark a regional sectarian conflagration. Weekend missile attacks in southern Lebanon and Israel were further proof of that contention, as was Hezbollah's admission that its forces were fighting alongside Assad's troops.

What has changed, as Oxfam among others has warned, is that by fuelling the conflict by sending yet more weapons to the combatants, Britain and France risk stoking a further rapid and potentially disastrous escalation; risk adding to the appalling toll of 80,000 people dead and millions displaced; and risk shooting down and killing off the already enfeebled diplomatic process they seek to sustain.

More guns, more bodies, more misery. One would have thought they had learned the lesson by now.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 May 2013 23:41

What an alawite victory will mean...

Alawite victory means Putin is King of Levant (yes Israeel as well). Gazprom signed a 20 year deal with Israel for their 2 gas fields which contain 9 TCF.

Also something I said on 26 Oct 2011

Russia's talks with Hezbollah officials in Moscow centred around Syria. Syria's foreign service and SVR also want to get a new network in the middle east. As part of this they want to strengthen relations with Hezbollah and also establish networks/ties with groups in Yemen and Lebanon.

Russia will expand their presence in Tartus and will station fleet there permanently like their black sea port. Reduces time to get to Indian Ocean Region.

------------------
Israel just clarified its position on S300
Israel says will act to prevent S-300 missile systems from becoming operational

Netanyahu tells European foreign ministers that if the Russian missile systems get into Syria, Israel's 'entire airspace will become a no-fly zone' and therefore it 'cannot stand idly by.'

Israel's National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror sketched out what Jerusalem's "red line" is vis-à-vis the S-300 missile systems Russia intends to send to Syria before the 27 European Union ambassadors in Israel.

Two diplomats who were in the room during the briefing last Thursday, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was a closed event, said that Amidror stressed Israel will act "to prevent the S-300 missiles from becoming operational" on Syrian soil. This message was also conveyed by Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon when he said on Tuesday that if the missiles reach Syria "Israel will know what to do."

Amidror's briefing, the diplomats said, made it clear that Israel estimates that sooner or later Russia will provide Syria with the missile systems and for reasons unrelated to Israel - namely Russian rivalry with the U.S., Britain and France on the Syrian issue. "We understood from Amidror that the Israeli government thinks the missile transfer cannot be prevented, therefore it will act against them after the transfer but before they become operational," one of the diplomats said.

The S-300 system is considered one of the world's most advanced aerial defense systems. Apart for the system's advanced radar, which can identify and track long-range targets, the missile themselves have a range of 200 kilometers.
Because of the system's advanced technology, the time required to make it operational can range between three to six months. Syrian operators and technicians also need to undergo training, possibly in Russia, but in order to fully calibrate the system and make it operational some of the process will have to take place in Syria.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked government ministers not to comment publicly about the S-300 systems, but in talks behind closed doors with diplomats and foreign ministers he relayed his concerns on the matter, in an attempt to exert last-minute pressure on Syria. The British Guardian newspaper reported on Wednesday that a delegation of Israeli intelligence officials arrived in Syria on Tuesday for more talks with senior Russian government officials.

A senior Israeli official and a European diplomat who are involved in the talks said that even though Netanyahu has not said so explicitly, he signaled in the past two weeks in talks with several European foreign ministers that his efforts to convince President Vladimir Putin not to provide Syria with the systems did not bear fruit.

"If the missiles are provided and become operational Israel's entire airspace will become a no-fly zone," Netanyahu told the European foreign ministers. "The missile transfer is a significant security challenge to Israel and we will not be able to stand idly by."

In the briefing to the European ambassadors Amidror tried to clarify Israel's policies on other issues concerning the Syrian civil war, and denied international media reports that Israel prefers President Bashar Assad remains in power.
"We are not interested in intervening or influencing the situation inside Syria," Amidror told the ambassadors. "We will only act when needed to protect our security, and thus we will prevent in the future the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah."

According to one of the diplomats present at the briefing, Amidror concluded by saying that for Israel, the strategic issue is weakening Hezbollah and Iran, and its policies are determined accordingly.

The Prime Minister's Office refused to comment

.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 30 May 2013 00:03

Mahendra,
You're assuming they do. What they do in their own country is nobody's business. But if they can be convinced to run a regime that does not export instability of any sort, Sunni or Shia, that will be a major victory in itself. Left alone, the GCC countries will work against exactly that goal.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 May 2013 03:06

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... icial.html

International 'militarisation' in Syria growing closer, warns US official
The international community may be forced to 'militarise' the crisis in Syria unless president Bashar al-Assad stops the onsalught on his people, a senior US official warned on Wednesday.

The official from the State Department told The Daily Telegraph that while the White House wants to exhaust all its diplomatic options, the debate in Washington has shifted away from diplomacy and towards more robust action since Russia and China blocked a United Nations resolution condemning Syria.]The Pentagon’s Central Command has begun a preliminary internal review of US military capabilities in the region, which one senior official called a “scoping exercise” that would provide options for the president if and when they were requested.The White House said it was talking to allies about holding a “Friends of Syria” meeting in the near future and was considering delivering humanitarian aid to affected areas in the country.“We are, of course, looking at humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people, and we have for some time. We’re consulting with our international partners, and we anticipate this being one of the focuses of the discussions that we’ll have,” said Jay Carney, the White House press secretary.Influential figures in Washington have recommended setting up a “humanitarian corridor” or safe haven, while others, such as Senator John McCain, have said it was time to consider arming the rebels of the Free Syrian Army.Any plan to supply aid or set up a buffer zone would involve a military dimension to protect aid convoys or vulnerable civilians.“The decision-makers have not determined we are at a point of no return,” the senior official told The Daily Telegraph. “There is still a window, it is just that that window is closing.“I don’t know how much longer it is going to go on before people start looking at what else is on the table, because nothing is off the table.“We definitely don’t want to militarise the situation. If it’s avoidable we are going to avoid it. But increasingly it looks like it may not be avoidable,” he said.
“There is always hope that this can be solved without it turning into a full-scale civil war and without the use of force, but it really involves Bashar al-Assad receiving the wake-up call.” Any outside military involvement in Syria has been regarded as more difficult and more risky than the mission in Libya.It has a complex geography and ethnic mix and is the linchpin of a volatile region. But since the Russian veto at the UN, there is no doubting an extra urgency in the attitude of concerned governments and agencies.“We’re trying to make things change,” said a senior EU official. “We’re facing a wall, and we have to find a way of climbing over that wall and moving ahead.”
The opposition to Mr Assad has been calling for a humanitarian corridor or buffer zone or a Friends of Syria group for months. The Syrian National Council, the principal opposition body, endorsed military intervention in December.
.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 May 2013 03:22

So rebels are on the defensive at this time.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 30 May 2013 07:32

Good to hear that the cannibals in Qusayr have finally had their backs broken -

Hezbollah said to control most of Qusayr in major setback for Syria rebels - http://www.kansascity.com/2013/05/29/42 ... rylink=cpy

BEIRUT — Hezbollah and Syrian government forces have seized most of the strategically important town of Qusayr near the Lebanese border, fighters on both sides of the conflict said Wednesday, in what would be a huge setback for the rebels fighting to topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Syrian army seizes strategic air base near Qusair - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/ ... 9T20130529

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 30 May 2013 08:10

meanwhile,

Syrian Opposition Groups in Disarray - http://www.voanews.com/content/syrian-n ... 70408.html

Days of negotiations among opposition leaders meeting in Istanbul appear to be at a standstill, with the politicians unable to unite around a single leader or a unified council.

“We never succeeded to bring them around one point - one point," said analyst Oraib Rantawi of the Al-Quds Center in Amman. "And when they left the meeting room, they started to talk about each other in a very bad way: traitors, agents, corrupted and all of these for God's sake; exclusion, they don't want this, they don't want that."

The basic problem is that the mercenary forces lack any moral grounding, so naturally treachery and corruption will be rife. Especially when the going gets tough, and prospects of "right-hand possessions" and war booty appear increasingly dim. Any self respecting Jihadist would naturally prefer to get his 72 houris here on earth rather than in heaven.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2013 08:24

Super duper random whim super power generator GCC can't take Assad out despite having thrown all that they had at him for the past 18 months

the desperation can be seen as every attempt is being made to rubbish Hezbollah - omg they lost 28 people in one day

super duper disciplinese hezb cannot defeat rag tag FSa - 6 days - 8 days

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 30 May 2013 08:28

Good analysis

The slow suicide of Syria’s opposition May 30, 2013 01:25 AM By Michael Young

The Daily Star, Beirut

We are near the stage where the Syrian opposition, thanks to an effective campaign by the Syrian regime and its allies, but also a pervasive lack of unity or direction, may lose much of the support it needs to defeat President Bashar Assad’s regime.Nor has the opposition grasped the deepening anxiety in neighboring countries who fear being destabilized by the conflict in Syria. A car-bomb explosion in the Turkish border town of Reyhanli recently and the rocket attack against the Shiyah neighborhood of Beirut’s southern suburbs have only reinforced this fear (even if no one has claimed responsibility for the suspicious Shiyah attack).

The killing of three Lebanese soldiers near Arsal Monday was no less worrisome. Whoever committed all these crimes must have known they would increase hostility to the cause of the Syrian rebels, whose determination to fight Assad until he leaves office guarantees tenser times ahead. If it was the Syrian opposition or its sympathizers, their reading of events was faulty; if it was the Syrian regime or its allies, then they cleverly manipulated rising popular misgivings.

Even the reaction of the Free Syrian Army to the Shiyah attack was a disaster. Initially, an FSA officer, Ammar al-Wawi, described the incident as a warning to Hezbollah. Soon thereafter, another FSA spokesman, Fahd al-Masri, rebuked Wawi and denied any FSA involvement. Wawi later changed his version, accusing Hezbollah of firing the rockets itself. And on Tuesday, the FSA threatened to retaliate against Hezbollah unless Lebanese President Michel Sleiman withdrew Hezbollah from Syria, as if Sleiman had any say in the matter.

The cacophony is even louder when it comes to preparing for the Geneva II conference on Syria scheduled for June. Last Thursday the opposition National Coalition began meetings in Istanbul to expand its membership and include Michel Kilo, a prominent opposition figure. Kilo proposed a list of 22 candidates, of whom only five were accepted. “The real, real, real problem is in the coalition,” a disgusted Kilo told the Al-Arabiya Arab satellite television station.

Meanwhile, the opposition has yet to decide whether it will be present in Geneva. A refusal to attend risks alienating the opposition’s supporters in the West. If it accepts, Geneva could prove to be its undoing, given the likely internal discord over what is agreed. Worse, there are no guarantees the National Coalition has much influence inside Syria, and Geneva may only highlight this if the groups on the ground reject political arrangements reached at the conference.

The Syrian opposition has failed to appreciate the shifting political context in which it is functioning, while the Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian backers have. For instance there has been no planning for Geneva and the very real risks that the conference holds for the opposition, whether it participates or not.

Russia and the United States are going to Geneva with very different agendas, none of which favors Assad’s adversaries. For the Obama administration, Geneva provides an opportunity to begin a political process permitting America to evade a larger role in Syria. President Barack Obama had feared being pushed into such a role after reports came out that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons against the rebels, crossing Obama’s red lines for American intervention. The president sent Secretary of State John Kerry to Moscow and the accord over a conference bought Obama time to stay clear of Syria.

In other words, the Obama administration is going to Geneva largely to avoid Syria. Already, the administration has postponed discussion of arming the Syrian rebels, stating it does not want to undermine Geneva. If a political process is agreed there, the Americans will have a further excuse not to send weapons. The European states have also agreed not to supply weapons before August, to give Geneva a chance.

Russia, with a far clearer sense of what it wants in Syria, has another aim in Geneva: to consolidate Assad rule and put in motion a negotiating process that, at least temporarily, curbs the violence and divides the opposition. By helping Assad mount a successful offensive in the area around Qusair and reverse rebel gains near Damascus, the Russians have reinforced the Syrian president’s position, making it highly improbable that Geneva will seriously broach the matter of Assad’s departure from power. The Russians surely sense that Obama’s eagerness to be rid of the Syrian headache will push the U.S. to endorse a solution that avoids determining Assad’s fate.

The Syrian opposition cannot be blamed for the shameful American performance in Syria, but it can be blamed for failing to consider possible post-Geneva outcomes. Nor has it adequately addressed the very real doubts that have emerged over the participation in the Syrian uprising of the Nusra Front, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda. The fact is that there are profound doubts that the opposition can fill the vacuum in Syria if Assad goes, which can only favor jihadist groups.

No one in the West, particularly the U.S., much cares that it was Western indecision over Syria that created an opening for the militant Islamists. As they see the opposition in disarray, one thing they do not want is a new Afghanistan in the Levant, which will destabilize Syria’s neighbors. And the neighbors are beginning to agree. Recall that associating the opposition with Al-Qaeda has long been the line of the Assad regime, which then made it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Syria’s opposition must regroup quickly, or else all will be lost. The tens of thousands of Syrians who have died at the hands of a barbaric leadership deserve better. But the chances are they will not get better.

Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Read more: http://dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columni ... z2Uk5EI0ou
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 May 2013 08:29

Noob question - Is Hizbullah mostly Shia or Sunni organization ?
If they are Shia then why do KSA and its minions support them and if they are Sunnis, then why are they going against the dictates of KSA and supporting a Non-Sunni Govt in Syria.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 30 May 2013 08:41

VikasRaina wrote:Noob question - Is Hizbullah mostly Shia or Sunni organization ?
If they are Shia then why do KSA and its minions support them and if they are Sunnis, then why are they going against the dictates of KSA and supporting a Non-Sunni Govt in Syria.

They are Shia and receive support from Iran via Syria, not from KSA. They do have a mass base among the Shia population of Lebanon, so the "terrorist" label given by the US is not quite justified. It is probably correct to call them a state within a state - they are better organized than the regular Lebanese Army.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2013 08:58

Vikas

they also enjoy a fair amoutn of support amongst some sunnis.

I know lebanese families who are Sunni and voted for Hezb

every lebanese I know has a Syrian or palestinian in their family from marriage -

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 May 2013 10:20

Does Hizb receive support from other Shia majority state like Iraq or Qatar besides Iran and Lebanon ?

Lets assume if Bashar stepped down today or is forced too will this solve the Syria issue or will fighting stop ?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 30 May 2013 10:35

^^^^
Austin saab,
(i) More than Qatar, Bahrain has a huge Shia majority (about 75%).
(ii) Assad is just an excuse for the west for Shia-Sunni bloodletting in the ME, create an instability
to sell more arms....and above all, remain relevant in today's world politics. Libya was just to make sure that
cheap oil continues to flow to Europe without which it would collapse faster.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 May 2013 10:38

U.N. investigators say most Syria rebels not seeking democracy

Most Syrian rebel fighters do not want democracy and the country's civil war is producing ever worse atrocities and increasing radicalization, independent U.N. investigators said on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters in Paris, Brazilian expert Paulo Pinheiro said his team of investigators had documented horrific crimes on both sides, although the scale of those committed by President Bashar al-Assad's forces was greater.

"It was said the rebels were angels, but there is only a minority of fighters with a democratic history who believe in the Syrian mosaic and want a state for all," he said.

"The majority of rebels are very far from having democratic thoughts and have other aspirations."

The U.N. Security Council is set to blacklist Syria's Islamist al-Nusra Front as an alias of al Qaeda in Iraq. Foreign fighters, many of them from Libya, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iraq and Egypt, have also radicalized the rebels.

The Islamist element of the Syrian conflict poses a quandary for Western powers and their Arab allies, which favor Assad's overthrow, but are alarmed at the growing power of militant Sunni Muslim fighters whose anti-Shi'ite ideology has fuelled sectarian tensions in the Middle East.

While Assad has repeatedly labeled opposition forces as "terrorists", Western powers have backed non-Islamist rebel fighters by providing aid and non-lethal assistance.

On Monday, the European Union effectively lifted an arms embargo that could allow countries to arm certain rebel forces by failing to agree to renew it.

Pinheiro declined to comment on that decision, but suggested identifying groups acceptable to the West was difficult.

"There is a very complicated distinction between the bad and the good rebels," he said.

Pinheiro leads an independent team of some two dozen experts mandated by the United Nations that documents crimes committed during the conflict, in which at least 80,000 people have been killed.

Its next report is due out on June 4 and will be based on interviews since February conducted abroad with victims and witnesses, as they have not been allowed into Syria.

"The report is dreadful in terms of a combination of secularization, radicalization and an escalation in violations of human rights and laws of war," he said.

Both government forces and armed rebels are committing war crimes, including killings and torture, spreading terror among civilians in the more than two-year conflict.

Carla Del Ponte, a former Swiss attorney general who served as prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and is one of four commissioners on the team, said she had never seen violence like that in Syria.

"The crimes are committed by both sides," she said. "The cruelty of these crimes is unbelievable. I have never seen that, not even in Bosnia."

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 May 2013 10:41

Kati wrote:(ii) Assad is just an excuse for the west for Shia-Sunni bloodletting in the ME, create an instability
to sell more arms....and above all, remain relevant in today's world politics. Libya was just to make sure that
cheap oil continues to flow to Europe without which it would collapse faster.

Me too thinks Assad is figurehead much like Saddam was in Iraq with his terrible WMD which till date are not to be found ...more like take over over Syria and then make it easier to target Iran , works well for all US and Israel happy to take out Iran and put back to stone age and Sunni ruled states happy to have Syria under its control.

What is the state of Libya Economy today , there seems to be standoff between Government and Rebels.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 May 2013 10:49

Assad: We received 1st shipment of S-300 missiles from Russia

Syrian President Bashar Assad told Hezbolla's television network Al-Manar on Thursday that his country has already received the first shipment of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia.

During the interview, which will be aired in full on Al-Manar Thursday evening, the embattled Syrian leader said the next shipment is due to arrive "soon." He also clarified that his government would not stand in the way of Syria groups "that will want to fight for the liberation of the Golan." (Roi Kais)

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 30 May 2013 11:55

qatar and bahrain have shia majority but sunni rulers
the oil province of saudi has shia majority also - (but obviously sunni rulers)
the entire GCC ruling elite is petrified of Iran mobilising the arab shias en masse and leading a regime change movement
hence qatar inviting USAF to locate its ME base in country, bahrain same for USN, etc., etc. - primarily a bulwark against Iran
afaik uae native population is majority sunni, as is kuwait