West Asia News and Discussions

[abhishek_sharma]

Profile: Turkish PM Erdoğan

[Austin]

Seems Assad forces were gaining ground much before Hizb came into picture by following new operational tactics , mean while Israel DM mentioned that Asad was in 40 % control of syria

Assad gains ground across Syria

"Long before Hezbollah got involved in the conflict in Qusayr, the regime had already been taking the initiative, using new tactics, opening up counter-offensives or new fronts over the last two-to-four months," Mr Sayigh said.
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He named the Syrian army's push into Damascus, its success in regaining much of the ground it lost around the southern city if Daraa near the Jordanian border, taking back a key road into Aleppo, as well as breaking the siege on Wadi Deif in the Idlib province, as evidence of a significant change in tactics from the regime.

"They have certainly made some significant gains but the two sides are at strategic equilibrium ... which means that both are in a position to make further gains," Mr Sayigh said.

"Strategically the regime has the advantage but this doesn't mean a total military victory."

It has been attempting to "follow up on military gains by stabilising and providing basic services for civilian population" but it was unclear what was real and "what was just PR", he said.

The regime had clearly regained the initiative in key parts of Syria, said Hilal Khashan, professor of politics at the American University of Beirut, revealing the true extent of Iranian and Russian assistance.

"They have been providing them with equipment that has increased the accuracy of their attacks — they can pinpoint where the rebels are firing from, they can better target their efforts," Mr Khashan said.

"Although in the past few months we have witnessed a reverse for the rebel fighters, this doesn't mean the government forces control the situation on the ground — we are witnessing a burgeoning civil war that no one can win."

No matter how much the military situation of President Bashar al-Assad improves, he cannot continue to lead Syria, Mr Khashan said. "At best he can hope to drag the conflict on so he can complete his term, which ends in June next year,' he said.

As for any hopes that the Syrian opposition might finally unite, Carnegie's Mr Sayigh warned it was highly unlikely, describing its situation as "woeful".

"It was never a functioning leadership body, it is very divided and most recently we have seen it fail to launch a provisional government and barely survive co-opting new members into the coalition," he said.

The issue of whether the Syrian National Coalition should attend the US and Russia-backed Geneva peace conference will irrevocably divide its supporters, he said. "There are those who say 'we cannot afford to turn our backs on this conference, we have to participate' and those who say 'we will fight on the death'.

"The Syrian opposition is at an end ... if it had made any effort to offer up political alternatives, to accept that it needed to neutralise Assad's supporters or shown it had an ability to engage in meaningful debate, things might be different."

As the situation deteriorated on the ground in Qusayr, the International Committee of the Red Cross and United Nations humanitarian agencies have raised the alarm over the fate of thousands of civilians believed to be trapped in Qusayr, including up to 1500 wounded. They called on both sides to allow aid to reach civilians and for an immediate ceasefire to allow civilians to leave the town.

[Lalmohan]

anyone understand what the riots in turkey are about?

[Austin]

anyone understand what the riots in turkey are about?

There was some kind of park which the government wanted to break and make a mall so people protested , also a general discontent with Turkey current PM and ruling party.

[Philip]

War clouds looming!

“I hope there’s a war,” says Ziv Peretz a father of two young children in the Golan town of Katzerin. “Then we can kill them all, finish them all off. I doubt anything will happen, because the Arabs know they will lose.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 41380.html

Israel prepares as war clouds gather: Russia's determination to supply S-300 missiles to Assad's Syrian regime raises fears of arming Hezbollah
Russia’s insistence that it will supply Syria with S300 missiles has heightened fears that they could fall into the hands of Hezbollah

From the window of Shrifa Schlomitz’s dental surgery at the top of a high rise in the Stella Maris area of Haifa, you can clearly see the three Patriot missile batteries pointing over the Mediterranean Sea towards the Lebanese border, just 30km away.

Dr Schlomitz has no interest in seeing them removed at the moment. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group with which Israel fought a six-week long war in 2006 – a war that brought Haifa into the firing line of Hezbollah rockets – is too close for comfort again and the group’s deepening involvement in the Syrian civil war has increased the threat of new attacks, according to some.

“The rockets make us feel safer – it gives some kind of security. If they weren’t there people would be asking the government ‘what are you doing to defend us?’,” he says.

“I don’t think they will dare attack us. We would respond immediately and erase them from the map. But we’re in a standby situation; people know what can happen. People know there is potential danger, but also we have to live our normal lives at the same time. We know the situation can change very quickly.

In recent weeks, the drums of war have been beating louder. A week ago, there were reports in the Israeli media that a rocket was fired from Lebanon towards Israel. It didn’t land – but the tension is being ratcheted up.

In public, Israeli politicians are at pains to suggest that they will not take sides in the Syrian conflict even though Hezbollah has publicly thrown its weight behind Bashar al-Assad’s government. Recent reports that the Netanyahu government was also hoping that Assad stays in power and maintains the quiet on the shared border were angrily countered.

Despite its protestations, Israel has attacked targets inside Syria, both last month and in February. It will not admit to the action, but officials have lined up to argue that Israel has the right to prevent sophisticated weaponry reaching Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon.

It is a calculated risk. Hezbollah – whose leader Hasan Nasrallah warns of a “strategic response” to the Israeli attacks – is known to have many short- range rockets, but longer-range, more advanced, missiles would threaten Israel’s biggest city, Tel Aviv, further south and would bring the nearby Ben Gurion airport into play.

And it is for that reason that Israeli officials are so concerned about the Russian insistence that it will deliver a batch of its advanced S300 missiles to Damascus.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu said before cabinet [last week] that Israel will act to prevent the S300 missiles becoming operational, so if they arrive in Syria, Israel must act,” says Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Centre in Herzilya.

“Otherwise, it will find that the statement is hollow and devoid of content – that’s where logic takes us. At the same time, Assad cannot carry on not acting if Israel attacks again.”

Last week, the Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar, reported that the first consignment of the S300 missiles had arrived in Syria from Moscow – although privately Israeli officials have rubbished the suggestion.

The Russians insist that the weapons will help to restore balance in the region, but the Israelis – just a few weeks after Netanyahu went to Russia to discuss the Syrian crisis with Vladimir Putin – have openly threatened to destroy them.

The Defence Minister, Moshe Ya’alon, said that Israel will “know what to do” if the S300s are delivered, adding that the deal is “clearly… a threat to us”. Another minister, Yuval Steinitz, said that Israel would, “react to any threat. I hope Damascus understands that. We will react forcefully.”

He described the deal to supply the missiles to Syria as, “morally wrong”. Experts say that the S300s would enable Assad to shoot down manned aircraft and incoming missiles; the Israelis fear that in Hezbollah’s hands, they could become an even more lethal threat.

If the diplomatic arena is becoming ever more highly charged, on the ground there is not the same urgency. The Independent arrived in Nahariyya, just 5km from Lebanon, just before a scheduled nationwide air-raid drill. At precisely 12.30pm, the sirens started. Everyone ignored them.

That evening’s television news showed people in Tel Aviv rushing for the shelters. But not in Nahariyya. “People here are not getting too excited,” says Michael Younger, a middle-aged resident. “It was a test, everyone knew it was a test.”

Whether it’s stoicism, or just the bravado that is common in places such as Nahariyya, Younger says that people in the town are used to Hezbollah’s rockets. “What can we do? But everyone here is talking about it – we are waiting for it all to happen again.”

Spyer doubts that Hezbollah is the main threat. “I don’t think Hezbollah wants to open up another front, with Israel. It is acting on Iranian orders – it is part of a larger Iranian effort, to keep Assad in power. It is not a surprise that Nasrallah was in Tehran on 30 April, and now his fighters are engaged in the conflict.”

In Matula, Israel’s most northerly town, where Hezbollah flags can clearly be seen just a few hundred metres away, Spyer’s words may be of little comfort. The town, which saw heavy fighting in 2006, was reportedly the target of the rocket on Sunday. “I didn’t know there was a drill this morning and I got really scared when the siren went off, I thought that this was it,” says college student, Vered Idon. “I’m a bit worried. You can hear the explosions in Syria from here, and that’s scary, but it’s OK.”

In the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and, after occupying the area for 14 years, formally annexed in 1981, preparations are going ahead. The Independent passed numerous flatbed trucks which are used to transport armoured personnel carriers and tanks. At one point, we saw at least 50 APCs lined up in a car park.

“I hope there’s a war,” says Ziv Peretz a father of two young children in the Golan town of Katzerin. “Then we can kill them all, finish them all off. I doubt anything will happen, because the Arabs know they will lose.”

Red Cross fears for injured in besieged town

The International Committee of the Red Cross says it is alarmed by reports of conditions in the besieged Syrian town of Qusayr and has called on all sides in the conflict to allow in aid for those injured in the fighting.

The rebel-held Qusayr has come under a bloody onslaught in recent weeks as government forces, supported by fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, have tried to reclaim the town. Qusayr is only a short distance from the Lebanese border and its capture would represent a significant gain for President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

Reports from the town suggest that there could be thousands of civilians trapped by the fighting. The Red Cross said water, food and medical supplies were becoming scarce, and many of the wounded desperately required medical attention.

“We have already requested access to Qusayr and we are prepared to enter the city immediately to deliver aid to the civilian population,” said Robert Mardini, the ICRC’s head of operations in the Middle East.

“Civilians and the wounded are at risk of paying an even heavier price as the fighting continues… Thousands of other civilians are reported to be in Qusayr still – hundreds of them severely wounded and without access to medical care.”

Despite the stark warning, on Saturday Russia rejected a draft UN Security Council declaration circulated by British diplomats, which raised “grave concern about the situation in Qusayr, and in particular the impact on civilians of the ongoing fighting”.

Russia, which like Britain has veto power over Security Council resolutions, said the UN had not condemned the original capture of Qusayr by rebel fighters, and so it would be inappropriate to endorse such a resolution now.

[Austin]

Syrian S-300 Missile Contracts "Not Realized" - Putin

“We do not want to disturb the balance in the region,” said Putin during a joint press conference at the Russia-European Union Summit with European Union President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. “The contract was signed several years ago. It has not yet been realized."

Putin praised the capabilities of the Russian-made S-300s, which can engage 12 targets simultaneously at distances of 200 kilometers and heights of up to 27 kilometers.

“The S-300 systems are, really, one of the best air defense systems in the world – probably the best,” he said.

Putin also stressed that the deliveries of S-300s to Syria are legal.

“Russian deliveries of weapons to Syria are implemented on the basis of recognized and transparent international contracts,” said Putin. “They do not violate any international position. And they are implemented exclusively, and in their entirety, within the framework of international law.”

Absence of good will in Syrian armed opposition obstructs preparations for conference - Putin

"What stands in the way? Obviously, the absence of good will on the part of the armed opposition, the absence of a common platform in the opposition camp, and impossibility to select participants in the conference from the armed opposition," Putin said at a press conference after a Russia-European Union summit.

[Kati]

Blowback in Turkey?

http://defnesumanblogs.com/2013/06/01/w ... -istanbul/

[brihaspati]

Russia holding back on delivery apparently, while patriots have been moved to Jordanian silo quite openly - to counter any psychological advantage Assad might gain from the talk about s300's and prevent demoralization in otherwise robust munna jihadis who gain their max motivation on prospect of classical jihadi sadism and rape but are scared when faced with prospect of facing their own medicine.

[Surya]

The park issue in Istanbul was just the fuse - pent up frustrations at the Govt slowing strangling the rights has bubbled up

[Prem]

http://news.firedoglake.com/2013/06/04/ ... iraqs-oil/
China Gets Iraq’s Oil

Accompanying the fall of longtime American frenemy Saddam Hussein and the rise of Shiite majoritarian rule has been a shift in Iraqi oil contracting. In the post-war Iraq export economy China has become the dominant customer becoming the chief beneficiary of increases in oil production.Since the American-led invasion of 2003, Iraq has become one of the world’s top oil producers, and China is now its biggest customer. China already buys nearly half the oil that Iraq produces, nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, and is angling for an even bigger share, bidding for a stake now owned by Exxon Mobil in one of Iraq’s largest oil fields.“The Chinese are the biggest beneficiary of this post-Saddam oil boom in Iraq,” said Denise Natali, a Middle East expert at the National Defense University in Washington. “They need energy, and they want to get into the market.”Under Saddam oil production stalled due to sanctions and the limitations of local abilities but since the U.S. invasion China has made major investments in Iraqi oil production turning around the industry for its own benefit. The irony is rich.
“We lost out,” said Michael Makovsky, a former Defense Department official in the Bush administration who worked on Iraq oil policy. “The Chinese had nothing to do with the war, but from an economic standpoint they are benefiting from it, and our Fifth Fleet and air forces are helping to assure their supply.”The Chinese state companies are even outbidding ExxonMobil who, unlike the Chinese enterprises, have to worry about profits and shareholders rather than fueling an economy. State Capitalism for the win.So after all the lying and killing America has ensured Communist China’s access to Iraqi oil. That is, of course, after strengthening Iran by removing their sworn enemy and liberating the Iraqi Shiite majority to align openly with them. There will always be questions over the actual motivations for the Iraq War given that the stated case for going to war was fraudulent, but it is hard to imagine that the current state of affairs existed in any chicken hawk’s fantasy. So much for a New American Century.

[eklavya]

anyone understand what the riots in turkey are about?

Its about the defence of man's most sacred and universal right, indeed the right by which the civilised are distinguished from the barbarians, which is the right to have a beer, with your mates, in a bar, where your lawful other half can neither nag you, or catch you observing (keenly in some circumstances) younger, sleeker and less warmly clad specimens of female humanity.

Beer-hater Erdogan is unfortunately threatening this most sacred of fundamental human rights.

Sultan Erdogan is bringing in laws that will restrict the consumption of alcohol in the open. The good citizens of Istanbul (the Beer Rakshaks, of kindred spirit with the Bharat Rakshaks) are naturally resisting this assault on their human rights.

Sadly, they are destined to lose, as most of their countrymen are intoxicated by Islamist propaganda with its unrelenting bias against having a beer with your mates.

Here is some source material:

Erdogan blames 'extremists' for Turkey riots

Erdogan, appearing on Sunday on television for the fourth time in less than 36 hours, justified the restrictions on alcohol as for the good of people's health.

"I want them to know that I want these [restrictions] for the sake of their health ... Whoever drinks alcohol is an alcoholic," he said.

Turkey police clash with Istanbul Gezi Park protesters
Last week, Turkey's parliament approved legislation restricting the sale and consumption of alcoholic drinks.

The regulations would prohibit retail sales between 22:00 and 06:00, ban all alcohol advertising and promotion, and stop new shops and bars from opening within 100m (330ft) of schools and mosques.

Mr Erdogan said he wanted to stop young Turks from "wandering about in a state of inebriation" and was not trying to impose Islamic values.

In a civilised country, new schools and mosques would need permission to open within 100m of a bar, not the other way round. What confusion, I say.

Alcohol laws spark renewed religious debate in Turkey

Sipping an afternoon beer at a table outside a restaurant in the heart of Istanbul, Boran, an advertising executive, reckons he will not be allowed to do the same by next summer.

“We are not talking about sharia [Islamic law] – but Turkey is going to become more and more conservative every year,” he says, poking at his sardines. “The Turkish republic is changing. Maybe in years to come they will make us drink at home.”

Boran’s ruminations are more than academic. New rules on alcohol could have momentous implications for Turkish politics and society – and for investments worth billions of dollars.

At present, drinking is not furtive in Besiktas, the neighbourhood where Boran and his father Baris are having their lunch. The district is packed with fish restaurants, where the drink of choice is raki, Turkey’s equivalent of pastis. It is also home to some of the country’s more anarchic football fans, who congregate in the square next to a 16th-century mosque, swigging beer in the open.

In the next few days, however, President Abdullah Gul is expected to sign into law a bill that will ban alcohol advertising and forbid new alcohol licences for establishments within 100 metres of places of worship or education – commonplace in Istanbul. Bottles will also be banned from shop window displays and images of drinking from television.

The government says it introduced the measures, which were rushed through parliament last week, for public health reasons. Turkey was recently praised by Margaret Chan, head of the World Health Organisation, for its leadership in reducing the harmful use of alcohol.

But in a speech this week defending the restrictions, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s Islamist-rooted prime minister, referred to the law as “ordered by faith”.

Indeed, it is not immediately apparent that the country has an alcohol problem. Surveys indicate that more than 80 per cent of Turks do not drink alcohol and consumption is the lowest of the 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. It also declined 17 per cent in the 30 years to 2010.

Denying any interference in people’s lives, Mr Erdogan added: “We haven’t banned anything . . . If you are going to drink, then drink alcohol at home.”

More evidence of a society in a dangerous descent from civility:

Not so good for you

In government offices hemlines have dropped. “In the old days if you wanted a promotion you wore a short skirt, now it’s the other way round,” explains a female diplomat.

[eklavya]

FT:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is only proving the protesters right
June 3, 2013 1:33 pm
By Philip Stephens

The immediate explanation for the rising protests in Turkey can be found in the fierce reaction of the country’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Behind the turbulence lies a much bigger question posed in recent years by the prime minister’s Justice and Development party, or AKP. Where, in Mr Erdogan’s mind, does Turkey sit in the world? Not so long ago Ankara looked west. Now it has turned east.

Mr Erdogan has responded to the disturbance with a public rage that more than matches the anger of those who have occupied Istanbul’s Taksim square and staged protests in other big cities. The demonstrators have been branded extremists and looters, Turks who drink alcohol have been labelled alcoholics and Twitter has been called a curse on society.

The opposition Republican People’s party, the heir to the secularist tradition of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, stands accused by the prime minister of stirring up unrest because of its successive defeats at the ballot box.

Alongside the heavy-handed response of teargas-firing police, the prime minister could scarcely have given a more telling display of the authoritarianism against which the protesters have set their face. Mr Erdogan has won three elections and, caught in the hubris that comes with a decade in office, has acted as if this puts him beyond the constraints of Turkish democracy.

The unease has been gathering for some time. Crackdowns on the press, arrests of political opponents, the increasingly Islamist hue of domestic policies and the suspicion that Mr Erdogan sees no end to his own hold on power have all conspired to stir disquiet.

It has long been an open secret that the prime minister wants to swap his present post for that of a supercharged presidency. He wants to change the constitution to give effect to the transition.

The ambition creates unease reaching well beyond his political opponents, including, some say, in the office of the current president Abdullah Gul.

The irony in Mr Erdogan’s denunciation of protest is inescapable. After a hesitant initial reaction to the Arab uprisings, the Turkish government has cast itself as the champion of freedom in the Middle East. The social networks Mr Erdogan now denounces played a noteworthy role in mobilising opposition to authoritarian rule elsewhere.

The AKP has forged close links with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and the energetic Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu has promoted the party as the role model for a marriage of Islam and democracy.

Above all, Turkey has been at the forefront of external opposition to the murderous regime of Bashar al-Assad in neighbouring Syria – offering physical, political and moral backing to the opposition forces in their efforts to overturn the Ba’athists. Mr Erdogan miscalculated, however, in willing a quick end to the Damascus regime. He underestimated the resilience of the pro-Assad forces and overestimated the willingness of the US to intervene.

By elevating Turkey as the leading regional – and more recently Sunni – power, the prime minister has raised bigger questions about the country’s strategic direction (Turkey, after all, is a member of Nato and a candidate for the EU) and about the depth of his commitment to Ataturk’s secular state.

The first years of the AKP government saw Turkey looking west. Mr Erdogan showed admirable willingness to embrace the democratic and judicial reforms required to open the door to accession negotiations with the EU; and a necessary toughness with the military who had long conspired against Turkish democracy.

A combination of European (mostly Franco-German) snubs, the troubles in the eurozone and Turkey’s own economic vibrancy sapped enthusiasm for that course, leading the AKP to recast the country as the pivotal power between east and west. Mr Davutoglu’s mantra – no problems with neighbours – was calculated to underpin this regional authority.

The strategy was overtaken by events. In the process, Turkey has begun to look more Islamist and less democratic. Turkey is not Egypt – nor Tunisia, Libya or Syria. Mr Erdogan has won three elections. And yet he seems to have failed to grasp that the essence of democracy is pluralism. Those who have taken to the streets will have many gripes and grievances, but the message to the prime minister seems clear enough. Modern Turkey wants a modern democracy.

[eklavya]

BBC:

France's Fabius 'confirms sarin use' by Syria regime

There is no doubt Syria's government has used sarin during the country's crisis, says France's foreign minister.

Laurent Fabius said lab tests in Paris confirmed numerous uses of the nerve agent, adding that those who resort to chemical weapons must be punished.

But he did not specify where or when the agent had been deployed; the White House has said more proof was needed.

Earlier, the UN said there were "reasonable grounds" to believe chemical weapons had been used.

Analysis

Jonathan Marcus
BBC diplomatic correspondent

This is potentially a game changer: The French government now believes not only that the nerve agent sarin has been used in Syria, but that it was deployed by "the regime and its accomplices", as Mr Fabius put it.

US President Barack Obama has made it clear that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would represent "a red line" - though he has subsequently backed away from this as a firm commitment to take military action.

Mr Fabius indicated this evening that one option was "armed actions targeting the place where the gas is stored". This would not be an easy mission. There are multiple storage sites in Syria and there must be concerns about the potential escape of toxic chemicals in the wake of any attack.

The rhetoric against the Syrian regime - at least from Paris - has gone up a significant notch. Action, though, may be another matter.

What is sarin?

One of a group of nerve agents invented by German scientists as part of Hitler's preparations for World War II

Huge secret stockpiles built up by superpowers during Cold War

20 times more deadly than cyanide: A drop the size of a pin-head can kill a person

Called "the poor man's atomic bomb" due to large number of people that can be killed by a small amount

Kills by crippling the nervous system through blocking the action of an enzyme

Can only be manufactured in a laboratory

Very dangerous to manufacture

Maybe we will get to see how the Rafale and the Typhoon perform against the S300!

[Prem]

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013 ... elp-syria/
India Should Help Syria’

Rajendra Abhyankar, India’s ambassador to Syria from 1992 to 1996 and foreign secretary from 2001 to 2004, believes India should play a more proactive role in peace talks on the Syrian conflict, likely to take place in Geneva in July.Mr. Abhyankar, now a professor at Indiana University’s School of Public and Environmental Affairs, spoke with The Wall Street Journal’s India Real Time about India’s position on Syria, the potential far-reaching impact of the conflict, and the role India can play in a possible resolution.
The Wall Street Journal: What exactly is India’s position on Syria?
Rajendra Abhyankar: India has been supportive of the Syrian government. When the protests started, we were hoping the government would take positive action. Some reforms were announced, and accordingly we abstained from the initial UN resolutions. Then we realized there was no genuine inclusive participation of the people: 50% of the population in Syria is made up of youth but they had no voice. For 40 years this system continued (the al-Assad family has ruled Syria under the Baath Party since 1970) and tested the tolerance of Syrians.
India has always emphasized a democracy which is participative and inclusive government. India shares a longstanding and friendly relationship with Syria, which is one of the few countries to follow the path of secularism in the Middle East and supports Kashmir as a bilateral [issue between India and Pakistan.] It has also been one of the countries to support India as a permanent member in the UN Security Council.

WSJ: Why has India not played a proactive role?

Mr. Abhyankar: Given its own internal conflict situation [Maoist insurgency], human rights violations in Kashmir, and northeast insurgencies, India has shied away from making any bold statements on Syria. In the UN Security Council, India’s decisions on voting have largely emanated from its non-interference policy in the internal affairs of other countries and [view] that any resolution to the conflict should come from the Syrians themselves. Any decisions by India at the UN can have a reflection of its own policies back home as questions will be raised on our own policies. But this should not be an excuse not to take any leadership initiative. India needs to act in situations where we have vital interests and where outcomes can directly affect us.
WSJ: There is an understanding that Syria is geographically far from India and the conflict does not have any impact on the domestic matters of the country, hence there is no real need for India to be involved.
Mr. Abhyankar: The conflict may be taking place in the Middle East, but it can have wide consequences in the Gulf. If the conflict starts affecting the Gulf or if it creates a sense of insecurity, India has a reason to get involved. The total number of Indians in Gulf countries is over 7.5 million. Any clamor or insecurity there will have a direct impact on India’s domestic policy, politically as well as economically as remittances from non-resident Indians are a major contributor to the domestic economy.The Iraq-Kuwait invasion during the first Gulf war led to the evacuation of more than 150,000 Indian nationals living in Kuwait within a week. The Lebanese civil war went on for 10 years with regional proxy wars as well. Who can predict the same will not be repeated with Syria? If the conflict lingers from the Middle East to the Gulf, it can also find its way to Pakistan, which is already brimming with Shia-Sunni sectarian violence. It would not take too long then to find resonance in Kashmir.
WSJ: Does India have a role to play in the upcoming peace conference in Geneva?
Mr. Abhyankar: The Syrian government has in principle agreed to attend next month’s peace conference, but has refused the opposition’s demand on stepping down from power before holding any negotiations. Involving the countries from the NAM [Non-Aligned Movement] or Brics nations will strengthen the peace conference. India can take the support of a few other countries and play a proactive role in the dialogue.If we want to play an active role we should get together with likeminded countries. India should make a place for itself at the table and talk with the U.S. and Russia, both of whom we share friendly relations with. We have an important contribution to make in any group of countries interested to bring peace. We are in favor of a democracy which is inclusive and participatory and should work to take this initiative forward. This is a foreign policy issue which has domestic impact.

[Prem]

France's Fabius 'confirms sarin use' by Syria regime
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22773268

Laurent Fabius BIn Collin Powell: "There is sarin gas... there is no doubt it is the Syrian regime and its accomplicesLaurent Fabius said lab tests in Paris confirmed numerous uses of the nerve agent, adding that those who resort to chemical weapons must be punished.But he did not specify where or when the agent had been deployed; the White House has said more proof was needed.Earlier, the UN said there were "reasonable grounds" to believe chemical weapons had been used.In a new report, the UN commission of inquiry on Syria also urged foreign powers not to increase the availability of arms in Syria.UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the atrocities listed in the report - which details evidence of fresh suspected massacres, sieges and violations of children's rights - as "sickening and staggering", said his spokesman.Children have been taken hostage, forced to watch torture and even participate in beheadings, says the report.
This is potentially a game changer: The French government now believes not only that the nerve agent sarin has been used in Syria, but that it was deployed by "the regime and its accomplices", as Mr Fabius put it.US President Barack Obama has made it clear that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would represent "a red line" - though he has subsequently backed away from this as a firm commitment to take military action.Mr Fabius indicated this evening that one option was "armed actions targeting the place where the gas is stored". This would not be an easy mission. There are multiple storage sites in Syria and there must be concerns about the potential escape of toxic chemicals in the wake of any attack.The rhetoric against the Syrian regime - at least from Paris - has gone up a significant notch. Action, though, may be another matter.Others have been killed while fighting in the two-year uprising against President Bashar Assad's regime that the UN says has left at least 80,000 people dead.Mr Fabius said various samples taken from unspecified locations in Syria and tested in France showed the presence of sarin."There is no doubt that it's the regime and its accomplices" that were responsible, he told France 2 television in an interviewMr Fabius said the test results had been handed to the UN."All options are on the table," he added. "That means either we decide not to react or we decide to react including by armed actions targeting the place where the gas is stored."The tests came after journalists for French newspaper Le Monde smuggled blood and urine samples out of Syria following what they believed were chemical attacks in the capital Damascus and the northern town of Saraqeb.White House spokesman Jay Carney said: "We need to expand the evidence we have."
Both the Syrian government and the rebels have in the past accused each other of using the weapons.The US was continuing its effort to gather evidence about the likely use of chemical weapons, the White House said on Tuesday.The US and the UK have said there is emerging evidence of Syrian government forces having used sarin, with Washington saying it had "varying degrees of confidence" that chemical weapons had been deployed.President Barack Obama called in April for a "vigorous investigation", saying the use of such weapons would be a "game changer" if verified.The UN human rights investigators, who have documented war crimes committed by both sides in Syria, say sending weapons to anyone involved in the fighting would be completely wrong.Meanwhile, fighting continued around the strategically important western town of Qusair.Lebanon's al-Manar TV, which is owned by Iranian-backed Shia militants Hezbollah, said the group's fighters and government troops had taken control of south-western parts of the town.

[ramana]

ShyamD, Please post the Belfer Center analysis if you can.

[RoyG]

SAA takes Qusayr city center.

[Neshant]

If the Brits actually supply arms to the al Qaeda

They are already supplying arms.

What they're talking about is supplying heavier arms (tanks, ifv, helicopters) no doubt flown/used by mercenaries aka terrorists they have (already) flown in.

[habal]

a gut feeling often comes up that after Syria is 'won', the anglo-sunni's coalition will turn their beady deviant eyes to Lebanon & UAE. The UAE emir is slightly inclusive, this in their anglo-sunni world-view, surely they may not be able to digest. They would like to purge UAE of any such traits and make it 'pure'. They had a go at Oman too for short while. The gameplan here is becoming quite clear. To purge the world of tolerant, inclusive, secular regimes to be replaced duly by intolerant, sadistic, lowlives who have the cloak of religion, thus making them untouchable to criticism.

[Lalmohan]

so habal-ji - who exactly are/were the tolerant inclusive secular regimes in the mid east?

[habal]

Speaking in comparative sense only.

Also based it on regime's closeness with India. Esp the Indira era.

[shyamd]

Tom Donilon will be replaced by Susan Rice today as the US Nat sec advisor to Obama. This is not released in the press yet or officially announced

Very relevant here and we could see a shift on US policy on Syria

US leaked yesterday that they started coordinating with allies on preparations for No fly zone and legal implications of bypassing UNSC (that sort of prep).

[Austin]

No Fly Zone even if established wont be effective as it would cover a small air space in a country , the US established NFZ over Iraq for more than a decade and it was still breached many times over by Iraq , finally only a ground assault could win the day.

NATO chief already stated that establishing a NFZ wont be trivial issue and it would be declaring a war on Syria and getting NFZ through UN wont be possible.

It is now a dead lock situation as far as military situation goes.

[Austin]

Syria rebels say they have lost battle for Qusayr

Syria’s rebels conceded on Tuesday they had lost the battle for the strategic town of Qusayr, after the army claimed it had seized total control of it and the surrounding region.

At the same time, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said fighters from the powerful Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, who had spearheaded the regime’s assault, were in control of the town.
Control of Qusayr was vital for the rebels as it was their principal transit point for weapons and fighters from neighbouring Lebanon.

It is also strategic for the regime because it is located on the road linking Damascus with the coast, its rear base.“Yes our brothers, this a round that we have lost,” the General Commission of the Syrian Revolution said on its Facebook page, but rebels seeking to oust President Bashar alAssad “will continue to fight the thousands of Lebanese mercenaries.”

That was a reference to Hezbollah, a close ally of Assad’s regime.Earlier, Syria state television said the army “totally controls” the strategic region of Qusayr after an offensive against rebel fighters that lasted almost three weeks.“The Syrian army totally controls the Qusayr region in Homs province after killing a large number of fighters and capturing others,” the report said, using the regime’s terminology for the rebels.

The Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of activists and medics on the ground, also confirmed that Qusayr had fallen.

“The army and Hezbollah have succeeded in taking Qusayr after an intense bombardment of the town overnight,” it said. “The rebels have withdrawn to other areas because they were short of ammunition.”

[Austin]

Syrian rebels 'can fight Hezbollah in Lebanon' - Idriss

The military chief of the main umbrella group of Syrian rebels says his men are ready to fight Hezbollah militants inside neighbouring Lebanon.

Gen Selim Idriss of the Free Syrian Army told the BBC that Hezbollah fighters were "invading" Syria and Lebanon was doing nothing to stop them.

Gen Idriss denied rebels were losing the war, despite recent setbacks.

Early on Wednesday Syrian state TV claimed that government forces had gained full control of Qusair.

[shyamd]

No Fly Zone even if established wont be effective as it would cover a small air space in a country , the US established NFZ over Iraq for more than a decade and it was still breached many times over by Iraq , finally only a ground assault could win the day.

NATO chief already stated that establishing a NFZ wont be trivial issue and it would be declaring a war on Syria and getting NFZ through UN wont be possible.

It is now a dead lock situation as far as military situation goes.

The likelihood will be that they'll use missiles to take out runways and destroy any mil aircraft sitting around to protect the people. Various scenarios could take shape and we'll find out more in the coming month

Question will then be will they use air power to take out Syrian tanks/APCs, what are the objectives... Etc

[RoyG]

Qusayr has fallen. Big win for Assad.

[Surya]

The FSAs whining about foreign fighters is amazingly hypocritical considering it has all sort crazies in its ranks

But the neighbouring Hezb cannot come in ---

but all said and done - Syria is finished - the destruction will take billions of dollars to restore

[Kati]

^^^^
Right now Assad needs to hold on to power for a while while his army and Hezb clean out the sunni wahabis.
The reconstruction won't be a problem as Iraq and Iran will foot the bill. Moreover, more shias can be settled
in Syrian abandoned cities to enhance the population balance in favor of Assad. Shia axis is very much needed
to keep sunni's (and their western masters) in check. Traditionally ME Shias have been more favourable to Bharat
than sunnis.

[Samudragupta]

^^^^
Right now Assad needs to hold on to power for a while while his army and Hezb clean out the sunni wahabis.
The reconstruction won't be a problem as Iraq and Iran will foot the bill. Moreover, more shias can be settled
in Syrian abandoned cities to enhance the population balance in favor of Assad. Shia axis is very much needed
to keep sunni's (and their western masters) in check. Traditionally ME Shias have been more favourable to Bharat
than sunnis.

The game is to stop the rise of either Iran,Turkey and/or Egypt in the West Asia...for this to happen the conflict in the Levant is just one of the tool....

[Austin]

The likelihood will be that they'll use missiles to take out runways and destroy any mil aircraft sitting around to protect the people. Various scenarios could take shape and we'll find out more in the coming month

Question will then be will they use air power to take out Syrian tanks/APCs, what are the objectives... Etc

Thats called War , Not that creating a NFZ itself would be declaration of a war in no less than words of NATO chief and taking out other targets would be the same , Then we are dealing with a different scenario altogether with all the repercussion that Middle East might have to go through.

[Mahendra]

Yipee Yipee, the idea is that neither side wins, that is in the interests of Bharath

If we sort out our internal differences, just by the sheer weight of our population and robust economic growth we will become a world power, we don't need the madrassa megalomaniacs help

Source tells me that the Spetnaz was involved in cleaning up Qusayr of GCC sunni wild dogs

If only Assad had the ability to lob a few Agnis on Doha and Riyadh, the super sheikhs would have been shitting bricks instead of trying to spread their vile ideology

[Austin]

Russian Arms, Syria and the Price of Oil

[ramana]

Kati, Sunni ya Shia the view is the same wrt India.

[ramana]

Thanks to ShyamD:

Belfer Center, Harvard

Viability of Nation States in the Arab World synopsis

Long Hot Arab Summer pdf

[Kati]

Looks like Hezbollah is becoming a full-fledged army with urban warfare training.
I think the other reason it got into Syria is to gain a real battle experience with real casualties so that it can evaluate its
battle readiness.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E ... l+Stories)

[Surya]

Source tells me that the Spetnaz was involved in cleaning up Qusayr of GCC sunni wild dogs

I don't think your sources have a clue. Normally sources in the know keep quiet about these things!!



Kati

thanks for the link

interesting that Hezbollah sees the knowledge it imparted Hamas come back to bite it

let them all keep fighting

[Philip]

Assad on a roll,while David Cameron is isolated within his cabinet after stiff opposition from many ministers who are against arming the rebels.It is amazing how even Cameron is falling into the quicksand that Tony B.Liar fell into in Iraq,history trying to repeat itself this time as farce.The propensity of several British PMs to "win a war" and cement their legacy as latter-day Churchills or Thatchers,is amusing,but not for the poor nations who become the victims of the Anglo-Saxon imperialist "expeditions".

The introduction of the Hiz forces into the Syrian conflict has been inevitable ever since the west and the Arab potentates started arming and funding the "rebels",who in truth are a motley group of mostly Islamist mercenaries. The absence of any leader of worth to command the rebels is its achilles heel,as everyone knows that the covert agencies of the west and the sheikdoms are engaged in a brazen attempt to further the west's policy of "regime change" to suit its own interests. With the strong support from Russia and China-not to mention Iran,tthe rebels on the back foot.he Assad regime can hold out for a very long time and right now have

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 46444.html

Syria: President Assad’s forces plan to re-take Aleppo with Hezbollah after capturing border town of Qusayr
Rebels lose strategic town of Qusayr after three weeks of bitter fighting

The forces of Bashar al-Assad are thought to be preparing an assault on Syria’s biggest city after capturing the strategically important town of Qusayr with large-scale backing from Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

The rebels’ loss of the town – which holds symbolic value to both sides in the country’s vicious civil war – after three weeks of bitter fighting comes amid reports that the regime is readying an attempt to re-take Aleppo.

Such an attack could come with further help from Hezbollah; some commanders of the Shia militia claim they are ready to take thousands of men across the border.

The opposition holds about half of the northern city, and a battle to retake it is likely to be bloody with the opposition aware that failure to hang on to their positions would be a setback.

Large swathes of territory remain outside the control of the regime two and half years since the start of the uprising. But recent gains being made on the ground have put President Assad in a stronger position before peace talks in a bid to end the conflict which has claimed 80,000 lives so far. UN international envoy for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, said the delayed talks may happen in July. American and Russian officials held a preliminary meeting in Geneva, the venue for the projected talks. The Syrian National Council (SNC), an umbrella group of the opposition, maintains that no ceasefire is possible while President Assad stays in power and Hezbollah participates in the fighting.

The expectation among diplomats remains that the SNC will be persuaded to attend the talks by its backers in the Arab League and the West. There is deep apprehension that the talks failing, or not taking place, would accelerate the spread of strife from Syria into neighbouring countries.

Residents in the predominantly Shia suburb of Dahiyah in Beirut celebrated after news broke of the fall of Qusayr. The movement’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has given unequivocal backing to the Assad regime, and its involvement in Syria is likely to increase rather if fighting continues.

Furthermore, the entry of the Shia militia will further demarcate the war along sectarian lines between the Alawites, a Shia offshoot from which President Assad and the ruling elite are drawn and the mainly Sunni opposition.

Anxiety to keep the Geneva talks on track is seen as one of the reasons why the Americans are urging caution after the latest claim, by France and Britain, that the regime has been using sarin gas. Officials in Washington stated that stronger evidence would be needed to prove that President Assad had crossed the “red line” on chemical weapons set down by Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, humanitarian organisations called for help for victims of conventional weapons in Qusayr. Doctors said there was little or no medicine left for the severely injured who could not leave when much of the population fled the fighting. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it hoped to gain access. “There are reports of hundreds of people that have been wounded,” spokeswoman Rima Kamal told the BBC.

Qusayr, which had a population of 30,000 before the attack, was of great value to the opposing sides. Its capture means the regime holds a land corridor to the Mediterranean coast where the Alawite community is mainly based. Before the recent gains, there had been speculation President Assad would retreat there if Damascus fell.

The rebels have now lost their supply line to the Lebanese border just six miles away, and Sunni villages in the area are more vulnerable to the actions of the regime and Hezbollah.

Although most of the rebel fighters in Qusayr had been locals, volunteers from other parts of the country came to defend the town. Among them were several hundred from Jabhat al-Nusra, a hardline Islamist group prescribed as a terrorist organisation by the US.

General Salim Idriss, the head of the opposition’s Free Syria Army, had accused the Lebanese government of doing nothing while Hezbollah “invaded” Syria. “There are now a very large number of Hezbollah fighters in Syria,” he declared, saying this entitled the rebels to carry out attacks on the Shia militia inside Lebanon.

Abu Qassem, a rebel commander in Idlib province, said his forces were preparing to face an onslaught. “Bashar’s troops are getting a lot of arms from Iran and Russia, especially long-range rockets, and they are having an effect. We also know that Hezbollah have a lot more of their fighters inside Syria than they used to. They will try to come this way and they will try to terrorise people, so we must be ready.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 46433.html

David Cameron faces serious Cabinet split over over arming Syrian rebels
Conservative MPs have warned Downing Street they may oppose the Government in any Parliamentary vote on the issue

[Paul]

Gruesome humor in the middle of this carnage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n5LyfJ0kDY

[Kati]

Interesting...
Now Bulgaria says it's not sure whether Hezbollah was behind the bombing

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world ... .html?_r=0