US-France talks go ahead as Syria as no-fly zone is ‘planned’
Britain, the United States and France are holding emergency talks to discuss how and when to arm the Syrian rebels and to weigh up the risks of imposing a no-fly zone.
The White House gave the go-ahead for some form of military assistance to Syrian rebels after announcing that there was clear evidence of chemical weapons having been used by the forces of President Bashar-al Assad.
Both Britain and France have welcomed the announcement.
United States military planners are now gearing up for what looks set to be the most high-risk overseas operation since the beginning of the Arab Spring. So far it is being packaged as a limited mission, to reassure the domestic audiences and avoid a clash in the United Nations with Russia and China.
David Cameron is due to talk to President Obama this evening. A Downing Street spokesman said: “No decision has been taken [to arm the rebels] but we are continuing to discuss this with our international partners.”
On the no-fly zone, the spokesman said: “We have always been clear that nothing is off the table.”
Since Mr Cameron is committed to a House of Commons debate before pressing ahead with arms deliveries, British officials are very cautious about making public statements. Contingency plans have however been drawn up. US and British personnel are already on the ground in Jordan training members of the Free Syrian Army.
Senior French and British officials were in contact yesterday. But the main political decisions are likely to be taken on the fringes of the G8 summit in Northern Ireland early next week.
President Obama and President Putin are to use the summit to discuss Syria and the implications of arming the rebels on any future peace talks.
The Pentagon has started to draw up a list of weapons that could make a difference to the rebels’ cause. The focus is expected to be on shoulder-launched anti-tank guns, ammunition and command-and-control systems. Reaction in London was welcoming but cautious.
“This could preclude us having to arm the rebels [David Cameron had already announced the UK military was looking into the mechanism of arming the rebels],” a senior British defence source said.
“However, it could become a joint enterprise. But there’s no definite decision yet either by the British Government or the Obama administration,” the source said.
UK defence officials pointed out that the Saudis and Qataris had been arming the rebels for months. “So I don’t think American arms will be a massive game-changer. The rebels can’t be given high-tech weaponry because they won’t have the training or capability to utilise them,” one official said.
The no-fly zone, as presently envisaged, would probably establish a 40km buffer area stretching into Syrian air space, and the aim would be to protect Jordan from artillery assault from troops of the Assad regime.
As long as the US did not seek total command over the Syrian skies, and as long as it projected its role there as essentially defensive of Jordan’s borders and its large population of refugees, then a limited no-fly zone could be put in place without a UN Security Council Resolution. The US has already moved Patriot air defence batteries and F16 fighter planes to Jordan.
The military purpose, though, would be to assure a safe flow of weapons to the rebels in Syria. And it could even, within a self-limiting brief, be able to bring a sense of threat to the Assad regime.
The US could justify the elimination of artillery or the destruction of runways in this stretch of Syria. The ultimate effect would be to create a safe haven for those fleeing the conflict — and destabilise the Assad Government, rather than Jordan.
But critics say that the decision to arm — which has still not been spelled out — has come too late to head off a devastating battle for Aleppo in the north. Government troops have been massing outside the ancient city with the aim of smashing the last big rebel-held stronghold.
The commander of the Free Syrian Army, General Salim Idriss, was due to meet British and French officials today to discuss arms supplies across the Turkish-Syrian border, the only practical way of girding the Aleppo rebels for the fighting ahead. He has presented a shopping list that includes hundreds of anti-tank weapons, shoulder-held anti-aircraft weapons and small-arms ammunition.
Both Britain and France persuaded the EU to lift its arms embargo against Syria but have said that they will hold off with deliveries until August.
The diplomatic goal would be to put pressure on Mr Assad to come to the negotiating table in Geneva. But his troops, backed by the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militias and Iranian advisers, have taken this as a spur to capture as much rebel terrain as possible before the conference.
British officials thus argue that deliveries should start earlier — if only to help to preserve the rebel stronghold of Aleppo.
The main US fear, and the reason for its long hesitation, has been that its involvement could lead to a political and diplomatic debacle experienced — in the view of many Republicans — in the Libyan intervention.
US officials have argued until now that Syria is even riskier than Libya. It has a very sophisticated air defence system and the clear support of Russia and Iran.
America has taken more than two months to arrive at its judgment that the Syrian leader has crossed Mr Obama’s “red line”.
The decision follows robust recommendations from some of his second-term team of advisers, especially Susan Rice, his new National Security Adviser.
The first time Mr Obama considered the option, his first-term team, including Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, Leon Panetta, the Defence Secretary, and David Petraeus, the former CIA director, all supported the idea.
But Mr Obama overruled them and chose to stick to diplomatic pressure and humanitarian aid.
“There’s been a sinking sense since then that something more must be done, but action now is not going to save the cities of Homs and Aleppo from falling back under Damascus control. It will come too late,” one Western diplomatic official said.
Mr Obama’s declaration put Nato on the spot and looked set to cause divisions within the alliance. “There’s absolutely no enthusiasm in Nato to intervene in Syria on behalf of the rebels,” a senior alliance diplomatic source said.
“The idea that the whole of Nato will back action in Syria is fanciful. The only time when the alliance will start seriously to consider taking action is if there’s a dramatic spillover of violence into the neighbouring region or if there’s a direct attack on Turkey,” the source said.
“An attack on Turkey [a member of Nato] would be a straightforward decision for the alliance, a slam-dunk as the Americans would say. The alliance also has a commitment to regional stability, so a spillover could lead to action, but military intervention to support the rebels? That’s not on the cards,” the alliance source said.
Nato military chiefs, with the US in the lead, have drawn up a number of contingency plans for Syria, including a no-fly zone. But officials say there is no political consensus for intervening either by arming the rebels or enforcing a no-fly zone.
“It was hard enough to get Nato to back a no-fly zone in Libya and that was a much easier operation. Syria is a different prospect altogether. Is the US or Nato going to order Syria to stop using air power? They can’t do that without enforcing a countrywide no-fly zone and no one is going to attempt to do that,” the Nato source said.
Alliance officials also cast doubt on the purpose of a proposed limited no-fly zone on the Jordanian border which could cost an estimated $50 million a day, according to Washington estimates.
“The refugees are not being attacked by the Syrian forces, so there’s no justification for implementing a no-fly zone on the border, and having one there won’t help the rebels unless the protected area can be used for military training. It will also be very difficult to enforce,” the diplomatic source said.
Last week, General Philip Breedlove, the new Nato supreme allied commander, warned that any enforcement of a no-fly zone would be “an act of war” against Syria.
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Update: Obama held a video conference on Syria with the PM/Chancellor of Germany, France, UK, Italy ahead of G8.
Cameron had a separate video conference iwth Cameron and they both agreed to meet again before G8. Putin due in Downing street on Sunday eve.
Things moving quite fast.
Reuters: The United States is likely to send weaponry like rocket-propelled grenades and mortars to Syria's rebels after President Barack Obama approved arming the insurgents, sources said on Friday.
Two European security sources said the United States would increase the caliber of the arms and ammunition being supplied to the rebels by regional powers including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as supply some heavier weapons, including RPGs.
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King Abdullah arrives in Kingdom due to events in the region... I.e Syria. Saudi base in the north witnessing activity and there are rumours that their military command have been placed on state of alert, staff on leave have had it cancelled. Emphasise these are rumours
