West Asia News and Discussions

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 15:28

If US has shown little inclination to enforce a NFZ over Syria , because of financial and ineffectiveness of such plans there is little NATO or GCC will do to enforce NFZ , not their cup of tea.

US has sheepishly admitted to help the rebels and say they have little interest in Syria ....what they want is not the balance in complete favour of Bashar/Hezb.

The bottom line being even US understand there is little they can do in Syria and militarily its in a deadlock with current favouring Bashar ..... all this will lead to negotiated settlement.

Action now shifted on Alepo front more than 5000 Hezb soldiers gathered along with Government soldiers and airforce strike.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 15 Jun 2013 15:30

maybe the US wants to encourage the jihadi tanzeems to head for syria and get depleted?
this process of mobilisation will flush out some of the hidden operators in the gulf too

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 15:40

IF you remember Afghanistan the Jihadis after winning just went after the hands that fed them , AQ/OBL is product of Afgan war well funded armed and trained by CIA.

This temporary fight will finally end up in fighting against the Big Satan in a couple of years.

All the jihadis has one common permenant enemy i.e Israel and US and eventually after breaks they come back knocking the door.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 15:43

Assad has no need to use chemical arms - Russia

"The regime, as the opposition is saying out in the open, is enjoying military success on the ground," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters during a joint press appearance with his Italian counterpart Emma Bonino.

"What sense is there for the regime to use chemical arms - especially in such small amounts?" Lavrov asked.Russia said on Friday it was unconvinced by US allegations that Assad had used chemical weapons against his own people.

US President Barack Obama's administration said on Thursday it would boost military support for the opposition as a result. Russia has backed Assad's regime and has provided it with weapons.

Lavrov said it would be wrong for the US administration "to be sending signals" to the opposition that may scupper the chances of a peace conference being held in Geneva in the coming weeks.

He added that that a no-fly zone that Washington was reportedly thinking of implementing over a part of Syria near the Jordanian border "would in either case violate international law."

"We hope that our American colleagues will act in accordance with the implementation of the Russian-US initiative concerning preparations for an international conference on Syria," Lavrov said.

The so-called Geneva 2 talks are aimed at getting the two warring sides at the negotiating table for the first time.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 15 Jun 2013 15:45

the chemical weapons saga will end up like the wmd dodgy dossier saga.. the spinmeisters need a new guru

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 16:12

Problem is that Sarin was used in small quantity mixed with some riot control stuff. The west thinks by using it in small quantity the Syrians/Iranians were testing western red lines. Obama sat on the evidence for 2 months. France and UK went public to put pressure on Obama.

UN chief said yesterday they haven't got enough to prove chain of custody... Evidence is not that it was being used.

Behind the scenes they are getting Bashar to the table to sort this out politically.

International intervention will only take place if he breaks the 2 conditions I mentioned above.

Anyway, isn't 97000 people dead not enough to intervene forcefully?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 15 Jun 2013 16:17

shyamd wrote:Problem is that Sarin was used in small quantity mixed with some riot control stuff. The west thinks by using it in small quantity the Syrians/Iranians were testing western red lines. Obama sat on the evidence for 2 months. France and UK went public to put pressure on Obama.

UN chief said yesterday they haven't got enough to prove chain of custody... Evidence is not that it was being used.

Behind the scenes they are getting Bashar to the table to sort this out politically.

International intervention will only take place if he breaks the 2 conditions I mentioned above.

Anyway, isn't 97000 people dead not enough to intervene forcefully?

Just because it is politically expedient to do so.

Asad is the last secular & nationalist leader remaining in the Arab world. Whatever happens he ought Stay in power.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 16:24

mahadevbhu wrote:^^
why is russia supplying Syria so much? is bashar that good a friend of theirs? why are they poking the arabs and the west in the eye?

Beyond the geostrategic interest that one is aware of most of the Chechnians Terrorist are Sunni ones funded by Saudis i.e Wahhabi-Deobandi types , The Russians fear eventually they would end up in Chechnya fighting their forces and disturbing the peace.

You need to just google the Saudi/CIA/Chechnya connection.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 16:37

Pratyush wrote:
Just because it is politically expedient to do so.

Asad is the last secular & nationalist leader remaining in the Arab world. Whatever happens he ought Stay in power.

Yeah well secular or not secular Asad could have done a lot to avoid the current situation. He led to the mass murder of people. Not even Putin disputes this fact. It's gone past the point of no return and staying is out of the question. But the next best solution is for a political solution and get his deputy to take over, make sure secular system stays in place.

Bashar is losing support from within his old loyalists - See Makdisi etc not because they like the rebels but because they don't agree with what he is doing to the country

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 16:50

shyamd wrote:Anyway, isn't 97000 people dead not enough to intervene forcefully?

Depends on how one looks at it , In Iraq a million died after American Occupation and still counting.

Sadly body count is hostage to real politics , 97K wont be the last number one will hear no matter if Bashar or SFA or some one else in power.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 17:04

Yeah I think so but Obama/Russians together knew it was gonna head for violence, consequences were that it will spread to region.

Obama busy with election so saying to allies we aren't gonna do nothing until after elections. Russians not gonna do anything because they have $40bn in contracts.

And by delaying it 2 years Obama is screwed either way - help rebels and once they win they'll go for the alawi's. Asad winning means more massacres... Best is for a political solution.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 17:07

Seems like Zaslon Special Forces specialising in Covert Operation abroad and under SVR Russian Intel is operating in Syria .... probably to protect Russian Embasy or other assets there....Very Interesting as we rarely hear about SVR activities even in Western Media in Syria

Special force deployment to Syria may signal Moscow’s doubts

Even while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry agree to hold a conference to try and broker peace, hints from intelligence sources that a contingent of the highly-secret Zaslon unit has been deployed to Syria suggest that Moscow is quietly preparing for the potential downfall of the Assad regime.

There is already a small Russian naval force in the Mediterranean with a contingent of 300 Naval Infantry marines and, most significantly, almost-empty troopships which could be used to transport Russian nationals. These would be able to handle a relatively orderly evacuation through the port at Tartus, at which the Russians already have rudimentary naval facilities.

However, if Zaslon special forces have indeed been sent to Syria, it suggests that Moscow feels a rather more pressing need to strengthen security for its embassy in Damascus as well as for the Russian military and technical advisers currently deployed around the country.

Zaslon (‘Screen’) is perhaps the most secret of Russia’s many spetsgruppy or special forces detachments. It is part of the SVR, the Foreign Intelligence Service — specifically its Directorate S, responsible for undercover operations. Formed in 1998, Zaslon is tasked with covert missions abroad ranging from protecting officials in dangerous environments to conducting assassinations. It numbers some 280 operators, who are trained and equipped to the highest standards.

Unlike most Russian special forces, Zaslon does not publicize its activities or even its existence. They have sometimes supplemented embassy security details in especially dangerous conditions; indeed, they provided security for former SVR director Mikhail Fradkov when he visited Damascus last year. They are typically used for more direct operations, though. Zaslon was rumored to be part of the operation to assassinate insurgents who kidnapped and killed four Russian diplomats in Iraq in 2006, for example, and they may be ready to free captured Russian military advisers.

However, according to one Russian report, two Zaslon elements were also deployed to Baghdad in the dying days of the Hussein regime. Their mission was to seize or destroy documents which Moscow would have found embarrassing had they ended up in U.S. hands. Given the scale and depth of Russian support for Assad, it could similarly be that they are also in Syria to cover Moscow’s tracks or else ensure that sensitive military technology — including new surface-to-air systems — does not end up in foreign hands.

Either way, if the reports are true, they further suggest that behind Moscow’s tough rhetoric on Syria, it is seriously preparing for Assad’s fall.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 17:37

Obama has been very hesitant to indulge in any war or take active part in it . He would like to leave his legacy as a man who ended all legacy wars i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan and does not want to commit to Syria.

He has resisted all kinds of pressure from Israel to get on the offensive side on Iran.

Considering the body bags that Americans have been counting on in the past decade from Iraq and Afghanistan and the war fatigue that US as a nation is , Obama would like to see any decision on committing any US troops to the next president.

The only American guy on rampage wrt has been Senator Mccain but beyond getting air time on CNN ,Ammanpour ,GPS he would probably take his wishes to his grave.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 19:37

Guys it's happening, hearing confirmation from multiple sources. Military leaves being cancelled. Prince Bandar told King Abdullah the "expectation" for strikes against Asad is within weeks.

But I am still waiting for my most trusted sources to confirm. The sources that have confirmed so far I can only express about 60% confidence in.

Also folks notice the spike in defections taking place. 70 officers defected and just now hearing defections in Damascus suburb of around 30 republican guard.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 15 Jun 2013 20:00

shyamd wrote:Guys it's happening, hearing confirmation from multiple sources. Military leaves being cancelled. Prince Bandar told King Abdullah the "expectation" for strikes against Asad is within weeks.

But I am still waiting for my most trusted sources to confirm. The sources that have confirmed so far I can only express about 60% confidence in.

Oh brother. We are still waiting on the Turkish invasion and evidence from the overflights. Everything is so explosive with you.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 20:07

Wait and see. In the meantime, glad you mentioned turkey. Can you please get the point where I first mentioned it on BR to the point where Turkish foreign and prime minister announced the same in speeches? Thanks

Also please post what Turkish think tanks were planning at the time.

Also, please post more on those overflights even from independent sources. And we can all see if I am lieing or not....

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 15 Jun 2013 20:29

So the hotline to Washington and Ryiadh has come up with confirmation about sarin used "in small qtys to test western tolerance", but not much to say about the supposed recent arrest of AQ operatives/Nusra-ns in Turkey with "unknown chemicals" (suspected to be chemical weapons) and the reports on sarin being produced/stocked/distributed from Sunni zones within Iraq for supplying to rebels? At least the Russians appear to believe so.

Guys, how about this model: both sides have sarin and assorted chemical/bio weapons. The Sunni side can simply buy it even if US clamps down. They need to justify use of US military tech to erase Assad. So the Sunni side - as part of a classic culture of deception inherent and taught or excused right from the beginning of the foundation of the theology - would even apply it on their own, or wounded/dying rebels to make out a case. These are complete and totally opportunist liars with none of their high-faluting morality ever coming in the way of jihad or sadistic impulses.

The fear of more massive international intervention is what will keep both sides use this on a limited scale if at all. Even the rebel handlers in the Saudi infrastructure would not want the chemical to be available to a lot of rebels [they themselves will come in the line of sight later] - so whatever happened - if at all - would be a carefully controlled limited experiment to build up a formal case. Most likely on already fatally wounded or dying rebels, or captured gov forces/civilians on whom the rebels/handlers applied sarin.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 15 Jun 2013 20:34

Austin wrote:Obama has been very hesitant to indulge in any war or take active part in it . He would like to leave his legacy as a man who ended all legacy wars i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan and does not want to commit to Syria.
.....

Austinji, my 2 cents!! right or wrong. You are correct about the first part, but it could be for the wrong reason. Odamba and the party he belongs to, fundamentally, do not believe in large scale w@rs as GW does. Same thing with Clinty. If he wanted to, he could have done IQ or AFG, but he did not. Instead he opted for small scale operations. Odmaba is doing the same things. His job is to finish Syr!a, clean the slate for the next administration in 2016 to deal with !ran. Seems like, !srael is using this opportunity to drag Hez in the equation and k!ll 2 birds with one stone. As far as ending legacy w@rs, looks like nothing is ending. Troops occupying foreign lands after viet w@r are still there after 4 decades. Looks like the goal is not end but maintain forever.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 20:40

^^ even in the small scale ones - he was dragged into them reluctantly. Nothing out of his own initiative. Even Egypt there was a lot of hanging around for the winner. Ultimately Egyptian army knew it meant civil war and pulled the plug on Mubarak in a coup. US will boast that they did this and that at the end. Obama advisors are just political guys. Typical party worker types

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 20:51

chanakyaa Only time will tell who is right but recent interview with Henry Kissenger on CNN had warned about the consequences of US entering into Syrian war because there is nothing to be gained for US strategic interest.

There is no gurantee that the current conflict will not evolve into full scale conventional conflict between Gulf state and Israel , Iran has pretty much made it clear at the official level that they would defend Syria.

If the so called Saudi intervention , GCC intervention or French-UK intervention does materalises then US should be prepared for conflict errupting in Gulf region as Putin has warned the consequences of which remain unknow for the region.

I dont know Obama will put US troops at risk in Syria and without backing of US by Air and Ground this will be a stalemate .....NATO does not have the stomach to sustain such war effort considering they are engaged in Afghanistan and other places .......The Economy of West itself will collapse if Gulf end up in war.

Bottom line is dont believe in all the rumours there is lot of Pysch Ops in play here , if you rewind the tape 1 year back we had same kind of news imminent war , collapse imminent . Bashar will be killed , GCC will emerge victorious etc etc the list is long.

Every body understands this is a war and there will be usual rumour , false information spread specially when chips are down for FSA.

Lets not be fooled US cannot afford a war in Gulf and Iran will come in full force if conventional forces of GCC are involved something which will not remain hidden , the sectarian fault line itself would ignite.

All you will see eventually is negotiated settlement to this crisis , Bashar will not be part of the deal but he or his follow on will ensure that Alwaite and minority are taken care off.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 15 Jun 2013 20:52

** duplicate **

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 15 Jun 2013 20:53

Ultimately Egyptian army knew it meant civil war and pulled the plug on Mubarak in a coup. US will boast that they did this and that at the end. Obama advisors are just political guys. Typical party worker types

I don't buy that unkil got dragged into anything by accident. Contrary to that, they would love to give the world the impression that they were dragged into. Looks like we have buyers of that theory. Mub@r@k was like a prostitute, used for decades. It was a high time for let her go. She knew too much. Look at ME, everyone is fighting with each other with their own oil money. Brilliant, isn't it. Western economies still struggling from financial crisis. They need S@udies to fund next set of w@rs.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 21:02

chanakyaa wrote: I don't buy that unkil got dragged into anything by accident. Contrary to that, they would love to give the world the impression that they were dragged into.

Wouldn't it be the opposite? That they want to show that they are in control when in actual fact they don't. See Ben Rhodes, in his briefing he himself admitted they didn't really know or understand whats going on in Syria. These CIA guys are no where near as smart as you think... After Egypt the President himself ordered an investigation as to why the CIA has missed so many major trends.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 15 Jun 2013 21:09

^^ Shyamdji, how can it be the opposite? Do you really believe anyone giving briefings to go out in open to admitting their shenanigans? Of course not. Prezident can order any showy investigations. It does not mean a sh!t. We have a saying "khaneke daat alaag or dikhane ke daat alag..". As far as the briefing, they are generally dog and pony show.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 21:16

Beg to differ boss. I used to think much the same but opinion change once you get up close and see for yourself.

---------------------
Rowhani elected as Iranian president. Apparently there is a sigh of relief in capitals.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 15 Jun 2013 21:18

America's standard excuse when caught is to say 'Ooops'.

Like the statement - 'I did not have sex with that woman'

US is quite alright about being thought of as a foolish bumbling country if it means they will not be held accountable for their crimes.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 15 Jun 2013 21:34

crosspost:

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ ... _iran.html

Switzerland looks the other way on Iran

page 1:

one important banking center in Europe has consistently undermined these efforts by refusing to adopt the very sanctions that have had the most impact -- Switzerland.
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Switzerland has also refused to join its EU neighbors in adopting a ban on imports of Iranian oil, despite the demonstrable evidence that the oil embargo by the West has significantly curtailed Iran's ability to access hard currency to fund its nefarious activities. This allowed Geneva-based oil trader Vitol to buy 2 million barrels of fuel oil from Iran in August 2012 and profit from its sale to Chinese traders.
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Ceresola, for example, a tunneling technology firm, signed a contract worth over €1 billion in 2010 with the Rahab Engineering Establishment, a known IRGC entity. The same year, Credit Suisse was fined $536 million for egregious banking violations, instructing employees not to "mention the name of the Iranian bank in payment orders."

page 2:

Luxury good powerhouses Richemont, Swatch Group and Rolex continue to export their merchandise to Iran's elite while knowing that only those affiliated with the regime can afford them. According to recent data, Swiss exports to Iran constituted 311 million Swiss Francs ($330.99 million) in the first 8 months of 2012.
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Luxury good powerhouses Richemont, Swatch Group and Rolex continue to export their merchandise to Iran's elite while knowing that only those affiliated with the regime can afford them. According to recent data, Swiss exports to Iran constituted 311 million Swiss Francs ($330.99 million) in the first 8 months of 2012. Alas, Libya and Syria have no such lucrative markets.

Sanctioned Iranian entities have also set up shop through front companies in Switzerland. Petro Suisse Intertrade Company, for example, is an Iranian oil firm active in Switzerland that was sanctioned nearly a year ago by the U.S. because the Iran's National Oil Company was using it to evade sanctions on its oil companies. Similarly, the Naftiran Intertrade Company is under both U.S. and EU sanctions and has been described as a virtual "offshore arm of the National Iranian Oil Company."

Swiss officials defend themselves by arguing that, broadly speaking, they support those sanctions imposed by the United Nations. Closer scrutiny, however, suggests even that isn't true. In March 2013, it was revealed that Swiss commodity traders Glencore and Trafigura had engaged in barter arrangements over the past year with Iranian Aluminum Company (Iralco) that provided Iralco thousands of tons of alumina in exchange for a lesser amount of aluminum metal. At the same time, Iralco has provided aluminum for Iran's nuclear program through a contract with UN-sanctioned Iran Centrifuge Technology Co. (TESA), which is a subsidiary of the blacklisted Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).
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some of these Swiss companies continue to increase their presence in the U.S. For example, Vitol signed an agreement with Texas-based DKRW Advanced Fuels LLC to develop a coal conversion plant in Wyoming, a project that may receive significant public subsidies.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 21:42

Turkey is now housing 59 defected Syrian generals. Seven generals defected to Turkey today.

Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov 18h
Massive defection: 202 Syrians including 7 generals, 20 colonels, 10 majors, 9 captains, 25 liuetenants and 2 sergeants defected to Turkey

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Jun 2013 21:49

Russia Says Syria Chemical Weapons Evidence By U.S. Does Not Meet International Standards

Russia's foreign minister said Saturday that the evidence put forth by the United States of chemical weapons use in Syria apparently doesn't meet stringent criteria for reliability.

The Obama administration said this week that it will give lethal aid to Syrian rebels in light of evidence that President Bashar Assad's forces used chemical weapons in the country's civil war.

In Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the material does not include guarantees that it meets the requirements of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He said the organization specifies that samples taken from blood, urine and clothing can be considered reliable evidence only if supervised by organization experts from the time they are taken up to delivery to a laboratory.

The OPCW is the autonomous body for implementing the international Chemical Weapons Convention that went into effect in 1997. Its website says Syria is one of six countries that have not signed or acceded to the convention.

A spokesman for the organization, based in The Hague, Netherlands, could not immediately be reached for comment.

Lavrov, after meeting with his Italian counterpart Emma Bonino, scoffed at suggestions that Assad's regime would use chemical weapons now in light of its apparent growing advantage against the rebels.

"The regime doesn't have its back to the wall. What would be the sense of the regime using chemical weapons, moreover at such a small quantity?" he said.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 15 Jun 2013 22:31

cameron talking to tv this pm about how supporting the right sort of syrian rebel will keep al-qaeda out of syria...

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jun 2013 23:44

Posting for continuity on todays developments:
Military leaves being cancelled. Prince Bandar told King Abdullah the "expectation" for strikes against Asad is within weeks.

But I am still waiting for my most trusted sources to confirm. The sources that have confirmed so far I can only express about 60% confidence in.

Also folks notice the spike in defections taking place.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 16 Jun 2013 00:57

Palin slams military intervention in Syria: 'Let Allah sort it out' http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing- ... z2WJf5Qdy0

rmer GOP vice presidential candidate and Alaska governor Sarah Palin told a Washington audience Saturday that the U.S. should not get involved in the Syrian civil war.Palin argued that the U.S. should not intervene in any Middle East conflict as long as President Obama remains in office.
“Until we have a commander in chief who knows what he is doing....let Allah sort it out!” she told the Faith and Freedom Coalition.The statement shows how far Palin has drifted from former running mate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who is the chief Senate proponent of U.S. military action to help the Syrian rebels.This week, the White House announced it had concluded that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons against the rebels, thereby crossing a “red line.” Obama has now decided to arm select elements of the Syrian rebellion.Palin also used her speech to blast the “good ole boys” in Congress and she advised them to follow the lead of freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a Tea Party darling.he former governor and Fox News contributor said the U.S. is “becoming a totalitarian surveillance state” and that she is listening more and more to libertarians in the Republican Party.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 16 Jun 2013 01:06

Lalmohan wrote:cameron talking to tv this pm about how supporting the right sort of syrian rebel will keep al-qaeda out of syria...

The right sort of rebel, an Old Etonian who read PPE at Oxford, with ingrained liberal values, and who owing to the financial crisis is currently looking for alternative means of keeping busy. Lord have mercy ...

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 16 Jun 2013 01:14

shyamd wrote:Posting for continuity on todays developments:
Military leaves being cancelled. Prince Bandar told King Abdullah the "expectation" for strikes against Asad is within weeks.

But I am still waiting for my most trusted sources to confirm. The sources that have confirmed so far I can only express about 60% confidence in.

Also folks notice the spike in defections taking place.

Which country's military's leave has been cancelled?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Jun 2013 01:17

Saudi, Jordan so far.

-------
Prince Miteb who was in Ankara for 2 days is now on his way to Paris for talks on Syria. This is the Head of the Saudi National Guard, son of King Abdullah and probably the next King in waiting.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 16 Jun 2013 01:28

Saudi and Jordan expect to attack Syria, or kill their own Shia populations?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Jun 2013 01:29

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 16 Jun 2013 01:32

Then why cancel leave. Expect to shoot their own Shia population?

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 16 Jun 2013 01:40

shyamd wrote: Prince Miteb who was in Ankara for 2 days is now on his way to Paris for talks on Syria. This is the Head of the Saudi National Guard, son of King Abdullah and probably the next King in waiting.

http://events.alriyadh.gov.sa/sites/Eng ... px?ID=1360

He looks like he has been eating too many pastries and not particularly bright. This dynasty is finished I think.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 16 Jun 2013 02:41

i bet the haus of saud is shivering in its dish-dash at the thought of a full scale war with the alawaites and their cousins