Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 19 Jun 2013 23:13

Re. Cvoter survey, I found an article in Hindi on aajtak website.

http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/bihar-op ... 33903.html

If someone finds a better link, please post here.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 19 Jun 2013 23:55

^^^ Thank you.

http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/bihar-op ... 33903.html

http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... -poll.html

If we compare the two polls (in the scenario where everyone goes alone).

Both polls are on dot with JD(U) vote share at 14%.
Both polls are on close by with cong vote share at 14% on aaj tak and 16% on lensonnews.
Aaj Tak says RJD is 22% and LJP is 6% with a total of 28%, while Lensonnews says that together they will get 22%.
Aaj Tak says BJP will get 24%, lensonnews says 31%.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2013 00:49

Can a probability guy figure out the real chances based on these two surveys using Bayesian methods and/or weighting? For instance how accurate was Aaj Tak or the other guy in the past?

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 20 Jun 2013 00:53

Analysts, here's the link to Headlines Today survey (55 minutes)

http://headlinestoday.intoday.in/progra ... 84251.html

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 20 Jun 2013 01:15

UnReal Times: Congress issues guidelines on how to celebrate Rahul Gandhi’s birthday more professionally

Congress offices across the country wore a gay and festive look as Congress party members, ministers, Gandhi family confidantes, wannabe loyalists geared up to celebrate one of the most important and momentous days in the party’s history – the birth anniversary of one of its tallest leaders, Rahul Gandhi.

This time around, in order to streamline the celebrations and strike the right balance between admiration and ostentatious sycophancy, Sanjay Jha, the chief Congress spin-doctor and PR manager has issued a list of ‘dos’ and ‘donts’ to party workers in marking the occasion:

Dear fellow Congis,

Yes, it’s that day of the year, when we get to celebrate all that is great about our party. Its our beloved youth icon’s 43rd birthday. This time around please adhere to the following guidelines to celebrate Rahul Jayanti more professionally:

For party workers

Don’t congregate around 10, Janpath waiting for a darshan of Rahul baba. The fact of the matter is Rahul is not in the country and is cooling his heels somewhere in the Middle East or Europe. He is expected back in India only by end of the month to attend the opening day of the monsoon session.
Rather, all party workers are encouraged to organize cake cutting ceremonies in front of Rahul posters, which have been printed specially for the occasion. These showcase the Nehru-Gandhi scion in various attires and get-ups – sporting a tilak, donning a skull-cap, even wearing an orange coloured turban so that like minded and secular workers from other parties, especially the JD-U, can partake in the celebrations.

Party workers are discouraged from feeding Rahul baba’s poster with expensive cake. As we all know, Rahul, in the highest traditions of Gandhian simplicity, prefers dal-chaawal and workers are encouraged to feed only such simple dishes to his poster.

In case some offices run out of Rahul Gandhi’s posters, they are recommended to make do with posters of Rahul Bose available at the Tamil Nadu Youth Congress (TNYC) headquarters.
Note that posters showing Sonia madam as Rani ki Jhansi Jhansi ki Rani have been taken out of circulation since some sections of the party felt they were an insidious attempt at satire. Party workers seen celebrating with such posters will be summarily expelled from the party. Same with people using words like ‘Pappu’ and ‘Buddhu’.

Recommended slogans for the happy occasion are “Rahul lao, desh bachao”, “43 is the new 23”, “I see Rajivji in him”.
For CRTs and social media enthusiasts

CRTs and those volunteering under eNREGA are encouraged to post happy birthday greetings for our beloved number 2. A model tweet, composed by our beloved Diggy ji, is posted for your reference:

https://twitter.com/digvijaya_28/status ... 4040014848

You can append hash tags such as #YouthIcon, #PrinceCharming,~~#Hairapparent~~, #HeirApparent, #Number2, #RahulJayanti to your message.
You can also reference @NDTV who will RT your greeting with #BlowToModi appended. Alternately, you can reference @ShashiTharoor with the request “Sir, Please RT” to have your tweet read by millions of his followers.
Try to be innovative and original in your praise of Rahul. Don’t go overboard lest it be construed as satire.
Take care to avoid the following hash-tags at all costs: #PappuDiwas, #Buddhu or #Pappu. Any CRTs found appending such vile hash-tags to their tweets will be summarily expelled.
For those who want to go beyond mere tweets in expressing admiration for the Nehru-Gandhi scion are encouraged to write an essay of not more than 300 words on the following topic: “Why Rahul Gandhi will make a better Prime Minister than Narendra Modi”. For ideas, read my article on HamaraCongress.com
Here is wishing you all a happy and joyous Rahul Jayanti,

Sanjay Jha
Paid Congress hack

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jun 2013 01:19

ramana wrote:Can a probability guy figure out the real chances based on these two surveys using Bayesian methods and/or weighting? For instance how accurate was Aaj Tak or the other guy in the past?

Well, I am not a probability guy. But of the surface, GVL (lensonnews, previously he was with DRS) has been good in predicting state elections quite accurately. He has gone wrong on both the 2004 and 2009 lok sabha polls. But since then he has started doing LS seats at a state level rather than just getting random spots over the country. That said, he is now a BJP insider and might have some bias.

The aaj tak survey history, i have no data points.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 20 Jun 2013 01:24

Sushupti wrote:Soosai sniper fire at Namo

Sudheendra Kulkarni served as an aide to former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the Prime Minister’s Office between 1998 and 2004. He was also active in the BJP from 1996 to 2013, and worked closely with L K Advani. Kulkarni resigned from the BJP in January due to strong ideological differences over two issues -- the BJP’s neglect of Indian Muslims and the growing control of the RSS over the BJP. He welcomes comments ...

Does he need 17 years to understand ideological difference? BJP's neglect of Muslims would have been much more in 1996 than now as Babri issue was fresh and BJP was more Hindutva (on paper).

RSS control over BJP - Was he not aware that RSS is primary and founder constituent in both BJP and its previous avatar BJS for last 6-7 decades?

Modi should weed out junk like this that still exists (openly or hidden) in BJP to put a straight fight with Congress.

satya · Post by **satya** » 20 Jun 2013 01:38

Prediction for 2014 : Bihar will crown India's next PM . Nobody is sure how Bihar will play out unlike rest of India where seat-predictions cutting across party lines not much different . Any poll stating for either BJP or INC 200+ is 'totally' biased . Difference between INC & BJP tally will be under 30 . Someone will be very surprise if it goes beyond that.
Here's the problem : BJP has a transferable votebank . Other transferable votebank is that of muslims .Does Nitish has one ? Lalu wants CMship & Nitish will relenquish CM chair provided he gets PM chair . If Nitish can get PMship why not Lalu? Interesting times ahead .

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jun 2013 01:39

I don't know if India is neglecting Indian Muslims or Indian Muslims neglecting India?

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 20 Jun 2013 01:43

SaiK wrote:I don't know if India is neglecting Indian Muslims or Indian Muslims neglecting India?

Both?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jun 2013 01:51

I thought India neglected only poor and gullible.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 20 Jun 2013 02:52

Isn't high time Advani is asked to explain and delivered stern public warning for playing this kind of dirty game?

Ex-Advani aide attacks Modi, Rajnath

http://www.timesnow.tv/Ex-Advani-aide-a ... 430178.cms

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jun 2013 04:09

Sanku wrote:Amazingly well played political game by LKA. Nitish/JD(U) is completely stunned. They have lost their leverage in BJP entirely, and it has been done so peacefully.

vina wrote:
SaiK wrote:I think he has stunned himself first. We will see more of this very soon.

check point or save point analysis now.. need to review from this perspective.

disha · Post by **disha** » 20 Jun 2013 05:58

I was thinking why Vijay Goel is projected in N. Delhi.

One line of thought is if V. Goel wins., he will want a seat at a "higher" table - that is more visibility in National role. If he loses, his career is as good as over., other than a trouble maker role. Now with 2014 looming ahead, one may not want V. Goel at the round table - given the work done by Parrikar, S.S.Chouhan, V. Raje, Dr. Raman and even SuMo., V. Goel stands out as a fly weight - particularly he wants to campaign via kitty parties and such ways. If another BJP candidate is made CM candidate and comes at fore in N. Delhi as CM, V. Goel may actually gain in nuisance value.

For 2014, making V. Goel lose is important., his nuisance value can thus be reduced. And that is why BJP is ready to lose N. Delhi (but not CM/Raj/C'Garh)., and was it the reason why it was ready to lose Yeddi? Bring down his nuisance value?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jun 2013 08:28

Yaddi seems to be conveyed his willingness to have tie up with KJS but wants the BJP to take lead. This is a good news. KJP should install confidence in BJP and KJP in BJP. May be things like giving BJP tickets to Yaddi family people etc will help. But LKA is dead against Yaddi coming back to dharmic fold. So LKA issue is required to be delt with sooner or later.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Jun 2013 08:35

LKA has been sidelined. Even if he jumps up and down on the BSY issue, chances are he'll get only a polite hearing and nothing more. He is welcome to resign again and this time chances are it'll be accepted only. Good. Team NM needs to play the game with subtlety and finesse.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Jun 2013 11:41

Every hero needs a loyal side-kick: Modi’s might well be Parrikar

Interesting viewpoint. Modi, Rajnath Singh, Jaitley, Parrikar would be a good team - need to start swamping the airwaves in coordinated fashion from next month.

Smriti Irani & Meenakshi Lekhi can bring in the aggressive feminine touch - moderated by the more 'inclusive' figure of Sushma Swaraj (assuming she is reconciled to Modi's rise).

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 20 Jun 2013 12:20

^
The CMs are becoming stronger then the central leaderships is a good sign.

I believe even SSC and Raman Singh need to come out of their states probably in next 2-3 years. Both of them have conducted themselves really well in the change over in BJP. This will also force the second level state leadership to think bigger.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jun 2013 12:28

They are already doing it sir. We have to understand for the first time a full time Pracharak is projected as PM candidate by BJP and has a very good chance to become one. It means a lot of many in Parivar. All the media simply ignore it. LKA clearly lost his touch in political games and showed it in the resignation drama. He could have waited for his turn. LKA gang will create lot of media noice on regular basis. But at some point the relationship will have to be broken.

apoorv · Post by **apoorv** » 20 Jun 2013 14:47

Sri Sri Ravi Shankar backs Modi, says time to shed the baggage of 2002

Great!! After Baba Ramdev, now Sri Sri Ravishankar is also backing Modi. Nice hindu twist to the fatwa trick used by "secular" parties. Like muslim and christian votes are consolidated by their spiritual leaders, for the first time a similar effort is made by hindu leaders as well.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Jun 2013 14:58

apoorv wrote:Nice hindu twist to the fatwa trick used by "secular" parties.

This is not a 'fatwa'. Its an endorsement....but yes, hopefully an endorsement that carries weight with a lot of Hindus.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 20 Jun 2013 15:07

apoorv wrote:Sri Sri Ravi Shankar backs Modi, says time to shed the baggage of 2002

Great!! After Baba Ramdev, now Sri Sri Ravishankar is also backing Modi. Nice hindu twist to the fatwa trick used by "secular" parties. Like muslim and christian votes are consolidated by their spiritual leaders, for the first time a similar effort is made by hindu leaders as well.

second time.. Hope it sustains and does not fizzle out like earlier time. This time is for much higher goal. as I said in deracination thread, 1980s narrowed Hindutva to a very small (but extremely important and non-negotiable) point - the RJB.. This time it is truly about Hindutva - the self-system (Swa tantra) of Hindus..

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 20 Jun 2013 16:38

Very interesting poll.
Reminds me the way Obama was able to bring in fresh youth vote in 2008.

Among the traditional BJP supporters 31.5% respondents said, they would not vote for BJP if Narendra Modi was not declared NDA PM Candidate. The corresponding figure for traditional voters for NDA allies, excluding BJP was 33%

Of those Voters who voted Congress/Others last time and before that and wanted to vote BJP this time, 65% said they would vote for BJP, if and only if Narendra Modi was declared NDA PM Candidate

Incidentally 3% of the traditional NDA voters also said that, they would desert NDA if Narednra Modi is made the PM candidate

Not surprisingly, 6% traditional voters in Uttar Pradesh said, they would not vote for BJP if Modi is the choice of PM as compared to 42%, who did not hesitate to desert BJP, if Modi was not NDA’s choice for PM

The biggest surprise came from South India. In Kerala, 39% new voters would take the plunge with BJP if they saw Narendra Modi as the PM face; the numbers were 38% for Karnataka, 21% for Andhra Pradesh and 19% for Tamil Nadu. However, 5.5% in Kerala, 4% in Karnataka, 4% in Tamil Nadu and 3.8% in Andhra Pradesh would also leave BJP, if it went with Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi’s impact was least in the states of Maharashtra, Rajasthan & Gujarat and the Nation capital territory Delhi. A little over 11% in Gujarat said, they would not vote BJP if Modi was made the PM’s choice. The numbers for Rajasthan and Maharashtra were 8% and 6% respectively. While Delhites were not too keen on Modi as PM, as just over 4% of them said they would not vote for BJP if Modi is not made the PM choice of NDA. The number is abysmally low, compared to the National figure of 31.5%.

Epitome of Change Narendra Modi – IBTL Opinion Poll 2013

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 20 Jun 2013 16:55

My prediction for BJP with NM as PM candidate is around 320 seats if NM is named or understood clearly to be the nominee well ahead for him to rally his war cries around the nation.

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 20 Jun 2013 17:08

harbans wrote:My prediction for BJP with NM as PM candidate is around 320 seats if NM is named or understood clearly to be the nominee well ahead for him to rally his war cries around the nation.

I will distribute weight of namo in mithai if this comes true

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jun 2013 17:48

BJP should contest in allmost all the seats wherein it was not contesting till date like in Kerala. It will create a party structure - vote recognition and may even seats if a bit of luck is there. Further it will also change the national discourse from Lahori politics to Development and Indic ideas. Just like INC gang is afraid to talk rubbish of Hindus in Gujarat they will be be afraid in other places also soon.

Chandrasekhar · Post by **Chandrasekhar** » 20 Jun 2013 17:52

Tehelka has come out with a nasty expose against Modi government regarding Ishrat Jehan case.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Jun 2013 17:53

I know NaMo has been (unflatteringly) been compared to Indira in being a one-person show and all... but it was Indira's boldness in single-handedly taking on the establishment 'syndicate' that created a polarized "with me or against me" wave in the country and won her the country.

Hopefully, the same effect (lesser in magnitude as NaMo doesn't have a Gandhi surname but possibly greater also due to asymmetric force multipliers like alternative and mobile media) will kick in come 2014.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Jun 2013 17:54

Chandrasekhar wrote:Tehelka has come out with a nasty expose against Modi government regarding Ishrat Jehan case.

Tehelka merely exposes itself when speaking on NM. More they howl, more they become part of the background noise....better for NM, I guess.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jun 2013 17:58

In the meanwhile free advise from Govindacharya.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/coll ... 84396.html

I wonder have all these people who spent large parts of their life in BJP and Sangh turned like delutional like this. LKA is not ready to accept that the approch need to be changed as his wa already failed twice. He and his D4 thinks INC will just roll over and handover power to NDA. This is how they lost in 2004 and learned nothing? What can we say other than - Old people are like Children.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 20 Jun 2013 18:27

Narendra Modi heads for Pathankot, backs Badal Senior as NDA chief

Modi will kick-start the BJP's election campaign for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls at Jan Sangh founder Shyama Prasad Mookerjee's memorial at Madhopur in Punjab's Pathankot district on June 23. This is Modi's first rally after getting elected as the BJP poll panel chief. Incidentally, L K Advani has politely turned down the request to share stage with Modi.

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Narendr ... 673221.cms

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Jun 2013 18:36

L.K.A problem could be nothing else but caste...he cant seems to be able to comprehend the fact that a lower caste than him is being elected

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 20 Jun 2013 19:34

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jun 2013 19:36

Sorry sir. I may not like him now, but he is not certainly not such person. He is from Sangh which never encourages such things.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 20 Jun 2013 19:48

Advani is a very poisonous person. He could have easily dismissed the comments of his idiotic sidekick cuckoo-karni but of course he hasn't. Advani is a sycophant just like Sonia and wants to sit in an AC room and do nothing while the party rots.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2013 20:14

Wonder who those 3.8% in AP who would leave the BJP? Reframing the question it would mean 96.2% of BJP in AP support Modi.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Jun 2013 20:15

^ No. That is 3.8% of NDA voters, so the other 96.2% are NDA voters who will vote NDA only with or without NM.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 20 Jun 2013 20:22

krishnan wrote:L.K.A problem could be nothing else but caste...he cant seems to be able to comprehend the fact that a lower caste than him is being elected

How did you deduce that LKA is a casteist?

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 20 Jun 2013 20:41

Modi offers a new camelot
Pritish Nandy

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... n=TOIBlogs

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 20 Jun 2013 20:42

Modi is best leader: Justice Krishna Iyer

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/06/20/m ... 92906.html