Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

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svinayak
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by svinayak »

Manish_Sharma wrote:ok :)
???
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

Bade wrote:Austin, What is the sum total of the NRI population ? The middle east population is likely of the order of 1 to 10 million max. These are the ones most likely to buy property or invest in India. Probably less than 10% of this sample invest in more than one house or flat. Non-middle east crowd makes a tinier segment 1-2 million max and a large segment of this sample are wage earners, and even if they make 6 figure salaries, cannot save enough to buy multiple properties. The IT Vity sample in my circle who have bought 2-3 units are the ones, who did so in the 90s or very early 2000's. I am yet to come across anyone who invested post 2005 in multiple units on a fixed salary, after paying for a house to live in the US. Same must be true of NRIs from the other western countries.

It is probably the businessmen NRIs who invest in multiple properties, even they are small in number as a percentage.
They may be big or small or they might be buying 1 or 4 properties thats not the point , there are many ways to skin the cat by buying property in name of family or relatives etc.

The point I was making was with NRI investing in properties the prices of Property specially Flat has gone North ....even if these folks buy premium building or property it impacts the prices of near by flats and property that are not so premium the cost tend to go up by 15-25 % ....atleast I am aware of quite a few property that has shown upward trend due to this reason.

Ofcourse they buy because its a good investment and who wouldnt if they had money but there is a downside to it as well atleast for the average indians.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

Rs 2,500 crore seized from four trucks in Mumbai


The Income Tax Department and National Investigation Agency personnel on Monday night seized cash worth Rs 2,500 crore, and gold and diamond jewellery from four trucks here and detained 47 people.

It is being billed as the biggest operation of its kind.

The tempos were apprehended from outside Mumbai Central railway station, stumping the investigators who suspect a terror angle, a top IT official, requesting anonymity said on Tuesday.

At least 47 people, including personal couriers, locally known as 'angadiyas', were detained and 20 were let off after initial questioning by the two agencies early Tuesday morning.

According to reports, the cash was to be transported to Ahmedabad on Gujarat Mail.

In an interesting twist in the case, it has been revealed that an Inspector stationed at South Mumbai's VP Road and his colleagues had escorted the trucks to station 8)

The joint operation by more than 100 officers was carried out at around 9 pm, when the four trucks reached outside the Mumbai Central station to unload the suitcases.

Those detained with around 150 suitcases of cash are still being grilled.

The operation was carried out following a tip-off received by the NIA at least a week ago.

It roped in the IT Department for help as a huge amount of cash was involved.

Not ruling out a terror funding angle, at least a dozen of those detained are being questioned separately by the NIA.

The IT officials are still counting the cash at their head office in Scindia House in Ballard Estate in south Mumbai, which houses many other central government offices.

The true value of the consignment is expected to be known only within another day or so, an official said.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by krishnan »

why transport them this way, knowning well they can be caught
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by prahaar »

Angadiya is a very well known method of sending ANYTHING to Mumbai from Gujarat (Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Bharuch, Surat, Valsad, Vapi). It is also (rather predominantly) used by common people as a courier service, although value wise common people may not be dominant. In the days before email, sending a CV for a job application urgently meant asking Angadiya. I understood recently that this "service" has antecedents in the Gulf-Gujarat business networks since pre-Islamic periods.

The gist of the above background is that it is such a commonly used service, that it is not likely to be suspected i.e. overground kala paisa transfer is done with that route. So terror angle can be camouflaged.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by krishnan »

Yeah and most of the time the drivers just bribe their way when stoped for checking at check post
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

Most likely this has been happening for a long time and there would be some "setting" with Police/Politician as they call it in Mumbai Lingo so chance of getting caught is low hence the care free attitude.

Drivers bribing the way is like an old 70's movie stuff now its all set from top to bottom so no need to bribe any one on the way.

We will come to know what happened that they got caught as the issue progresses .......lets wait and see.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Bade »

The theory that a few NRIs buying property at premium rates in certain neighborhoods, drives prices everywhere high has no basis. Do NRIs target every nook and corner of a city for their acquisitions ? Are you clubbing H1-B visa types from India also as NRIs. I would not ?

That said, what explains then the rise in land prices all over the country, in other tier-1 cities ? Let's say Kolkata, is it driven up by NRIs too. Or some remote village where hardly a NRI/PIO wants to invest or even cannot invest. Let us take states like Kerala out of the picture for this as it is clear the NRIs constitute a large segment of the population there or maybe even Punjab.

What is driving prices up is the fact that all land or other transactions are done 50%+ in black by ordinary people living in India and the only place to park such money is not in a bank but as a flat readily available for purchase somewhere, usually in a city. Finding land to invest in is a time consuming affair. If you can get rid of this then property prices will stabilize. The only beast feeding this rise in prices is the unaccountable incomes of resident Indians from all strata. The place where I bought in KL is filled with doctors and military personnel. Out of 40 or so units, only 4 are NRIs from USA. The largest units and in some cases combined units like an entire floor were bought by local businessmen.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

I am not stating that NRI buying property in India is the only factor that is driving up property prices ......yes Black money is a major factor and ordinary citizen are forced to pay in black because the builder demands so. though it is not as high at 50 % but around 30 %

Look at NRI investing in property in india as one of the factor not the only one. And as I said it is hard to say how many property fully belong to NRI only because they also buy in names of relatives uncles etc

You may believe it or not but having been associated with agency who are involved in this business I know its a fact of life.

The good thing is these days not all builders demand in black as Home Loan is now a major component for any property purchase for most ordinary Indians so this is something nice that is happening in past 2-3 years and its getting better as most builders are opting for it which is something good.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by SaiK »

We have quota system to share the spoils, but we don't have quota system where it needs the most.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Bade »

Austin, I think everyone is using NRI wand broadly to point to the ills, including in those articles. Reality is very different. I have spoken with B'lur RE agents and most say US clients are drying up generally. All their roadshows are limited to middle east targeting potential buyers from there. They are the best lot with spendable income on multiple homes.

But still that alone will not explain away the land cost inflation everywhere in India. My last post on this topic on this thread.
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

Bade , Lets agree to disagree on this issue and move on ....no point in digging this further.

Ok can some one tell me if we have our own Sovereign Wealth Fund and if we dont why not , the link below does not show India hence my question.

http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

The estimates of yesterday 4 truck load of catch has now been lowered to 10-15 cr from Rs 2500 cr ...seems like a deal has been reached ;)

Financing CAD year after year a challenge: Chidambaram
“The most difficult task is to finance the CAD. It was not even in the vocabulary of discourse until a few years ago. It has become a serious issue because imports are rising faster than exports. And the gap has to be financed through invisibles and capital account," he said.

“But to do that year after year is a challenge. Long term answer to the CAD is to improve the exports,” he told PTI in an interview here.

Mr. Chidambaram, who met Commerce Minister Anand Sharma earlier in the day, said: “We have reviewed the (export) figure this morning. First quarter figures are not encouraging.”

CAD, which occurs when total imports of goods, services and transfers is greater than the exports, had hit a record high of 4.8 per cent of the GDP in 2012-13 as rising oil and gold import widened the trade gap to USD 195.7 billion.

“I am sure some measures will be taken to reverse this trend (declining exports) and our exports will be back on a moderate growth path so that trade balance does not expand,” he said.

Mr. Chidambaram said the government had financed the CAD through foreign inflows last year and also added about USD 3.8 billion to the foreign exchange reserves.

The government has been taking steps to encourage overseas investment and is in the process of relaxing FDI caps in various sectors.

A high CAD is putting pressure on the rupee which had touched a record low of 60.76 to a dollar amid outflow of foreign funds from debt securities on fears of early withdrawal of US monetary stimulus.

Gold imports have been a major cause of worry as it widens the CAD, which in turn puts pressure in the domestic currency.

Gold and silver imports rose nearly 90 per cent to USD 8.4 billion in May. Cumulatively, in April-May the import of precious metals stood at USD 15.88 billion.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

FIPB Govt clears 8 FDI proposals worth over Rs 1,311 cr
Eight FDI proposals worth Rs. 1,311.54 crore including that of Norwegian telecom firm Telenor, have been cleared by the government on the basis of FIPB approvals.

The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) had approved these proposals in its meeting on June 14, when it deferred a decision on Jet Airways’ application to make a preferential allotment of 24 per cent of equity shares to Etihad Airways.

Besides, the proposal of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) to bring in foreign investment was rejected by the board, an official release said.

Telenor Mobile Communication AS, has been given approval to invest Rs. 1,000 crore to set up a JV company in telecom sector. The Norwegian firm would be investing the money to raise its stake in Telewings to 74 per cent from the current 49 per cent.

The other proposals which have been cleared include that of Mahle Holding India Ltd (Rs. 280 crore), Kolkata-based Srei Infrastructure Finance to set up White label ATMs and UK-based Aveva Solutions Ltd to set up an LLP for software development (Rs. 8.39 crore).
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

Food Security Bill costing $21 billion has been approved by cabinet

Cabinet clears food security via ordinance
Once the ordinance is signed into law by President Pranab Mukherjee, it will be incumbent on the government to provide 5 kg of subsidized rice and wheat to 67% of India's population.

Experts, however, say the Food Security Act will have an enormous impact on the cereals market and the farm economy and presents significant operational challenges. The Act will also impact government finances and widen the subsidy bill.

The cost is budgeted at around Rs 124,000 crore a year . Some estimates say to implement the Act in a sustainable and reliable manner can cost Rs 200,000 crore a year keeping in mind investment for stabilizing production, creating infrastructure for storage and railways and upgrading public distribution system as well as an expected increase in the minimum support price.

"The objective of providing food and nutritional security to the masses is laudable one but the challenge is getting it right, fixing the leaky public distribution system and providing adequate infrastructure for storage and movement," said Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Pratyush »

Where is the money going to come from?
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

I suppose Tax , Reduction of Subsidy for other product and borrowings.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by chola »

Do these babus even look at what's happening to the goddam rupee? Do they not know that even more deficit spending will drop the rupee into a spiral which in turn will raise fuel prices which in turn will raise food prices which in turn will force more people into malnourishment??

My god.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by chola »

Bade wrote:Austin, I think everyone is using NRI wand broadly to point to the ills, including in those articles. Reality is very different. I have spoken with B'lur RE agents and most say US clients are drying up generally. All their roadshows are limited to middle east targeting potential buyers from there. They are the best lot with spendable income on multiple homes.

But still that alone will not explain away the land cost inflation everywhere in India. My last post on this topic on this thread.
Anyone wanting to point finger at NRIs should instead thank them for pouring in hard currency when the FII are pulling out. You want them to to stop investing in India, to stop filling the coffers with dollars and pounds so the RBI can have a semblance of a backstop? We could do that.

But think of this -- oil prices globally have dropped 30% in dollar terms (oil being traded on US dollars) since 2006. Most of the West and the Far East are enjoying this dividend. But not India because the rupee had dropped 50% against the dollar. We actually pay 20% more for fuel now. Energy underpins everything. Once it goes up, so does everything else.

Without the NRI pumping in foreign currency, the rupee would be down even further and vanity property prices would be not be the thing you worry about. You would be worrying about how to afford food.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by chaanakya »

President Pranab Mukherjee clears ordinance on food security

NEW DELHI: President Pranab Mukherjee on Friday signed the ordinance on food security to give nation's two-thirds population the right to get 5kg of foodgrains every month at highly subsidized rates of Rs 1-3 per kg.

Mukherjee cleared the ordinance, which was received by the President's secretariat last night, ending speculation that he may not be in a rush to give his nod in the wake of strong reservations over its present form expressed by BJP, Left and some other major parties.

The food security programme will be the biggest in the world with the government spending estimated at Rs 125,000 crore annually on supply of about 62 million tonnes of rice, wheat and coarse cereals to 67 per cent of the population.

The Cabinet, which had last month deferred a decision on the issue following differences within, had approved promulgation of an ordinance to implement the Food Security Bill on Wednesday.

The ordinance comes just weeks before the scheduled Monsoon session of Parliament and political parties demanding that the Food Security Bill be debated in both Houses before being passed.

....................

The ordinance will have to be approved by both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha within six months of promulgation.

The measure will guarantee 5kg of rice, wheat and coarse cereals per month per person at a fixed price of Rs 3, 2, 1, respectively,

However, about 2.43 crore poorest of the poor families covered under the Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) scheme under public distribution system (PDS) would continue to get 35 kg of foodgrains per family per month but with legal entitlement
.
After 60 years of congoons misrule , 67% have no food security till the ordinance was enacted. From where that cereals is going to come?? Perhaps rotten foodgrains from FCI godowns. Thats a big sinkhole.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Hmmm! Stinks of Election season desperation….

I don’t think this the right way to do this but $20 Billion is not a massive amount of money by itself.
Look at it this way, right now the poor man spends 80%-90% of his income on food security. There is not a spare rupee to spend on anything else.
Once the poor have a little more breathing room they have proven quite willing to invest in themselves and take risks to improve their productivity.

This is how the Midday Meal scheme has played out.
Universal primary education has for the first time broken the age old link between caste and job opportunity.

The question is what are we asking from the folks in return.
My ‘umble request would be every girl must complete High School and delay marriage to 21 years.
If your daughter is not getting to HS and marries early no free rice for you.

Another thing to ask is what are you going to cut to pay for this.
I have a couple of suggestions. MNREGA can be restricted to low development states like Bihar & Odisha. That should free up $3-4 Billion.
And ask the government to get more efficient, that itself could easily save $10 Billion.

Still a conditional cash transfer is the best scheme IMHO.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Virupaksha »

Theo_Fidel wrote:And ask the government to get more efficient, that itself could easily save $10 Billion.
:rotfl: :rotfl:
Yes, Theo, the govt under Sonia and MMS is suddenly transform into an efficient one. Yes I agree it is efficient in corruption. They will save $40 Billion for themselves with payoffs to the local goons.

This is simply a MNREGA redux.

When MNREGA came, it was said by some people as the next best thing after idly sambar, but the realists immediatley said what it was. But the govt publicists ran across the web, the papers and even this forum jumping in the air.
Now since every body knows that MNREGA was just a scheme to fill the local goons of the Sonia and co, nobody talks about it. All its problems were foretold the first day, but the dynasty bhakts went to the moon with it.

This is another scam to fill the pockets of the scam-gress, all I want to do yawn and astound at how these bhakts can go on and on without an iota of thought.

Well when congress could repeat the same experiment of chiru with jagan and people are falling for it, then I guess...
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

When you drive thru and visit rural/semi-rural areas of India, people are in a terrible state. Hunger still stalks our children and there can be no real future for a nation where children don’t know where their next meal is coming from. Folks need help right now, there can be no doubts about this.

The question of course is what do you propose as a response. The harshness of the capitalist system must be tempered with a safety net. This not ideal but appears to be the only ‘blood and mercy’ system that can be stable and sustainable. Else India too will be vulnerable to revolution, we should not kid ourselves on this.

Unless someone comes up with other ideas the congress system will keep doing what works for it. Self-preservation is a powerful drive….
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Virupaksha »

Theo,

no doubt about that. But what the complete failure of nehruvian and congress economics and the relative success of narsimha rao and vajpayee economics have shown is the complete opposite. The NAC and Sonia economics are revisiting the horrors of Nehruvian era.

The relative success of Nitish kumar or Modi or Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the complete failure of MMS/Sonia/Laloo/Digvijay Singh showed only one thing. The railways is on the mat today because of laloo and his schemes.

Governance comes first and a complete after thought the schemes.

Forget the giving of 1 Rs rice to a far away village on a non-existent road with a transportation cost of 50 Rs and a subsidy of Rs 100. It will cost the public a lot less if a pucca cement road is built to the village. THe villager will be able to get the food at 20 with a lot of increased oppurtunities and connectivity. Instead of having an absent teacher at the school because of the remoteness and lack of connectivity, the teacher might live in a neighboring town but be able to commute to the village. Instead of three hour one way ride to the children, they will have a one hour ride to the school. What use is the "best" high school in three hours away town if people cant get to it. This 1Rs rice will continue what MNREGA is doing, keep him and his children under continued dole. If this is what you want, well MNREGA and FSA are right up your alley - but if you want to change him or atleast his children to be independent...

Governance comes first, later these schemes.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

I agree. The voters however don't agree so readily.

There is no doubt governance is necessary. But even in our well governed states people are in a terrible state.
My own opinion is that this is a function of abysmally low human capital and lack of social reform.
Folks are ‘locked-in’ to certain destructive patterns of behavior. While a few segments of our nation are escaping and doing well
Large chunks remain at subsistence levels.

PVNR & NDA periods are mixed per the data. After 6 years the NDA too was out of ideas. So far I havn’t seen any new ones from them either.

Agree that it is expensive to get Rs 1 rice to poor.
Which is why a cash scheme with conditionality’s may work better. Though recent study shows it is very expensive to enforce conditional requirements as well.

Don’t know what the answer is. Al I know is we need to keep trying.
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 05 Jul 2013 22:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Vayutuvan »

Bade wrote:Or some remote village where hardly a NRI/PIO wants to invest or even cannot invest.
Bade, my observation from "a very big sample of one" (my native village) the prices are going through the roof. But there is at least one engineer per house and there are a large number in US and some in UK, and from 1970s on wards almost 70% of the families have moved their primary residence to Hyderabad. A lot of people from smaller villages around this town moved in because it is supposed to have good education. There is a big twin-city coal mine community close by, up stream from our village.

It is a good thing but the development is happening all over in a haphazard fashion. Strong and non-partial center, strong state govt. will fix most of the problems with the precondition being the corruption is brought down to about 5% pf the what it is now.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

A weak center is better for India. Strong centers have created more obstruction and hungama than they are worth.
The key will be get resources to the local authorities so them can organize and manage their areas better.

For instance the town of Panagudi, population 30,000 has a total budget of 13 lakhs, most from the state government.
It does not have a proper city administration and lacks a corporation.
As a ‘town panchayat’ it can not tax or raise resources by the usual means. It is completely dependent on state.
A strong local setup that can raise taxes to spend on itself will be far more effective.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Virupaksha »

Theo_Fidel wrote:I agree. The voters however don't agree so readily.

There is no doubt governance is necessary. But even in our well governed states people are in a terrible state.
My own opinion is that this is a function of abysmally low human capital and lack of social reform.
Folks are ‘locked-in’ to certain destructive patterns of behavior. While a few segments of our nation are escaping and doing well
Large chunks remain at subsistence levels.

PVNR & NDA periods are mixed per the data. After 6 years the NDA too was out of ideas. So far I havn’t seen any new ones from them either.

Agree that it is expensive to get Rs 1 rice to poor.
Which is why a cash scheme with conditionality’s may work better. Though recent study shows it is very expensive to enforce conditional requirements as well.

Don’t know what the answer is. Al I know is we need to keep trying.
Theo,

I appreciate your mastery of obfuscation in supporting the NAC and its coteries.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Vayutuvan »

Strong as in external affairs and protecting national borders. In essence a center that protects and is subsurvient to the constitution. You cannot have unconstitutional special interest groups dictating terms and taking the country in a direction that is not in the interest of the country - people of all religious, political persuasions included. It is goes without saying that changing the constitution has to be only through means that are permitted by the constitution which excludes any religion - legally recognized or not as such - dictating terms and ask for special treatment as well as poltical thought that would want to overthrow a legitimate government through violent - read criminal - means. If the constitution is modified - through constitutional means - that everybody has to take a pledge supporting the constitution then there should not be objections for such.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Theo_Fidel »

I see you are out of ideas as well and immediately resort to political attacks.
This is the problem in India.

We think politics can solve economic problems. Nothing could be further from the truth.
-------------------------

Matrimc,

Be careful what you ask for.
It was during the 'strong' government phase of IG that Kachateevu, was blithely handed over to lanka, a reality TN folk pay with their blood for. The only recorded instance of Indian land mass reducing. Strong centers tend to do stupid things usually to the wrong people and almost always in a long term damaging way.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by abhishek_sharma »

What happened to India’s economic miracle? The elephant untethered. by William Dalrymple

Book Review:
An Uncertain Glory: India and Its Contradictions
Jean Drèze and Amartya Sen
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by nachiket »

abhishek_sharma wrote: Book Review:
An Uncertain Glory: India and Its Contradictions
Jean Drèze and Amartya Sen
Wow! It's people like these ultra-socialist maharathis who are responsible for turning the economic "miracle" into a "debacle". Now they are merrily writing books about it.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Vayutuvan »

Theo_Fidel wrote:I see you are out of ideas as well and immediately resort to political attacks.
This is the problem in India.
We think politics can solve economic problems. Nothing could be further from the truth.
-------------------------
Matrimc,

Be careful what you ask for.
It was during the 'strong' government phase of IG that Kachateevu,...
May I assume that the text above the dashed line is not directed at me :)?. By my definition a strong govt. at the center is one that would defend the borders with all instruments at its disposal - I present, for India, Siachen and Sir creek as current examples of pressing uurgency - and not barter them away in backroom/back channel deals to the detriment of the simple "country" folks.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Virupaksha »

Theo_Fidel wrote: It was during the 'strong' government phase of IG that Kachateevu, was blithely handed over to lanka, a reality TN folk pay with their blood for. The only recorded instance of Indian land mass reducing. Strong centers tend to do stupid things usually to the wrong people and almost always in a long term damaging way.
Nehru gave away parts of West Bengal. The supreme court stepped in and said giving Indian land away cannot be an executive action.

Nehru brought in the ninth amendment in 1960 to do that. That setting of the horrendous precedent of trading away land goes to Nehru not Indira.
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by kmkraoind »

Handouts or jobs?
ake a look at the leading "emerging market" exporters of textiles and clothing. Whether it is China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkey or Indonesia, you will find that their exports of clothing are more than their exports of textiles. India (as also Pakistan) has the reverse situation - textile exports are one-and-a-half times garment exports. And the imbalance is growing, even as India has lost ground in the global garment rankings. It used to be the second largest garment exporter (next only to China). But in the last few years, Bangladesh, Vietnam and perhaps Turkey too have either caught up or pulled ahead. India's garment exports ($12.4 billion last year) are less than a tenth of China's. Bangladesh, which used to be smaller, is now 60 per cent bigger.

So why is it that, despite having an abundance of the principal raw material in the form of cotton, a strong textile tradition, and armies of underemployed people in the countryside needing more productive work, India's garment industry is stuck in a stagnant loom?
The answer can only be deficiencies in policy and infrastructure - starting with the original stupidity of reserving garment production for the small-scale sector. Equally bizarre, India is the world's second largest producer of raw cotton, but in some years exports up to 40 per cent of its production, mostly to China. Sometimes, these exports cause raw material costs to rise for the domestic industry. This is a repeat of that old story about exporting iron ore to China, which uses it to make steel that India then imports! Even in polyester, where India is a large exporter of intermediates, the yarn or fibre is cheaper elsewhere.

But if India has missed one bus, another is coming along. China has begun to vacate segments of the garment industry on account of rising wage costs, and global buyers are looking for options to Bangladesh in the wake of successive tragedies there, like fires in factories and a building collapse that killed hundreds. But all too few global buyers are looking at India - which negotiated hard during the Uruguay Round of trade talks to open up the international textile trade, but has benefited relatively little since 2004, when more open trade came into effect.

Labour costs hold one key to understanding the problem. In Karnataka, a unit that observes the minimum wage stipulations pays the equivalent of $110 per month at the starting level; the mandatory minimum wages in and around Delhi would be higher. In comparison, Bangladesh pays $45 upwards. Many Indian exporters will sidestep the minimum wage stipulations, but the labour market is unlikely to allow much lower payments in the main garment production centres. In any case, labour is by no means the only factor, since Chinese wages are now up to three times India's (it does, after all, have more than three times India's per capita income). What needs creating is an ecosystem that helps garment exporters flourish.

The point to focus on is that, minuscule as India's garment sector is in relation to its potential, it employs eight million people. Double the industry's size and another eight million jobs will be created. As it happens, if you take the 2.16 billion man-days of works created under the rural employment guarantee scheme in 2011-12, it works out to about eight million man-years - at half the wages that the garment industry pays. The government spent Rs 38,000 crore on that programme in one year, but gives little time and attention to an industry that can create the same employment, at double the wages, at very much lower cost. So why are government handouts considered a form of "inclusion" superior to providing people with better-paying jobs in successful industrial establishments?
disha
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by disha »

Virupaksha wrote:Nehru brought in the ninth amendment in 1960 to do that. That setting of the horrendous precedent of trading away land goes to Nehru not Indira.
Did not know that! Isn't the above an attack on the constitution itself? That is one "pillar of democracy - the legislative" has abrogated the right of doing negotiations on behalf of the nation to the "executive"., instead of other way around where any negotiations by executive should be vetted by the legislative?

Either way, Nehru got himself a blank check. And currently neither do we have a strong centre or strong state. What IG did was ride rough shod over TN., a kind of arrogance borne by the fact that TN will not act in unison for their own interest (and throw out IG electorally).
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

International Food Policy Research Institute’s P.K. Joshi speaks in an interview about India’s food security plan

High subsidy, PDS hurdles to food security plan: Ifpri
Virupaksha
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Virupaksha »

disha wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:Nehru brought in the ninth amendment in 1960 to do that. That setting of the horrendous precedent of trading away land goes to Nehru not Indira.
Did not know that! Isn't the above an attack on the constitution itself? That is one "pillar of democracy - the legislative" has abrogated the right of doing negotiations on behalf of the nation to the "executive"., instead of other way around where any negotiations by executive should be vetted by the legislative?

Either way, Nehru got himself a blank check. And currently neither do we have a strong centre or strong state. What IG did was ride rough shod over TN., a kind of arrogance borne by the fact that TN will not act in unison for their own interest (and throw out IG electorally).
OT,

but Indira giving away katchadeevu might not be legal, because of that supreme court judgement. There is a case by Jayalalitha in SC contesting the same.
In June 2011, the new Tamil Nadu government led by Jayalalithaa filed a petition in Supreme Court seeking the declaration of the 1974 and 1976 agreements between India and Sri Lanka on ceding of Katchatheevu to Sri Lanka as unconstitutional.[3] The court ruled in Berubari case that cession of Indian territory to another country had to be ratified by parliament through amendment of the constitution. Katchatheevu was ceded to Sri Lanka in violation to the court under the 1974 and 1976 agreements without the approval of two Houses of Parliament.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kachchatheevu
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Post by Austin »

How did TN and Chatisgarh improved their PDS to minimise the leaks and why cant one implement in other PDS around india , irrespective of FSB this should improve PDS.
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