Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Jul 2013 03:02

okay, let me ask without repeating.. i want to know what is modi going to bring to us? has he started his agenda yet? my expectations are higher now.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 Jul 2013 04:46

SaiK wrote:okay, let me ask without repeating.. i want to know what is modi going to bring to us? has he started his agenda yet? my expectations are higher now.

Do you vote in India's elections? If not, why should Modi care what your expectations are?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 21 Jul 2013 05:18

Kakkaji wrote:
SaiK wrote:okay, let me ask without repeating.. i want to know what is modi going to bring to us? has he started his agenda yet? my expectations are higher now.
Do you vote in India's elections? If not, why should Modi care what your expectations are?

excellent question. one all of us need to ask ourselves.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Jul 2013 05:31

This was predicted on this dhaga, I believe...

Coomi Kapoor's Column

Return of prodigals?

Apart from overtures to B S Yeddyurappa, Narendra Modi also wants Babulal Marandi of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) back in the BJP. The Gujarat Chief Minister spoke to Marandi over the phone when he was in Delhi recently to attend a BJP parliamentary party meeting. Marandi, who has a clean image, had left the BJP a bitter man after it had installed Arjun Munda as chief minister. After leaving the BJP, Marandi aligned with the Congress. But with the Congress now backing a JMM government in the state, Modi feels that Marandi might be persuaded to return home. Marandi has 11 MLAs and two MPs in the Lok Sabha. However, while Marandi's return would be a feather in Modi's cap, his re-induction would be stoutly opposed by Munda.

Now go ahead, deal with INLD in Haryana, RajT in MH, maybe even Sangma in Meghalaya, the Panthers' party in Jammu (?) etc.... enlarge the anti-congress tent, I say...

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Jul 2013 05:56

After 'Namonia'. new term being coined? 'Modimatics' the name goes... MD Nalapat in the sunday guardian...

Modimatics: target 220, minimum 175

Sub-header:

Even Advani confidants expect a situation where the BJP gets enough seats to lead the coalition

They forgot 'despite LKA camps' best efforts.... refer the Sudheendra Koolaidkarni type loose cannons...

BTW, where's our venerable sanku ji? Away on voluntary banishment or the involuntary (bradmin initiated) variety?? sankuji, come back, this dhaga ain't the same without your contrarian feedback mechanism...!!

Some choice exceprts...

L.K. Advani and Sushma Swaraj, are silent about the party's saffron hopes for the 2014 general elections. However, soundings within their confidants indicate that they expect a situation where the BJP gets enough seats to lead the coalition, "but fewer seats than are needed to insist that Narendra Modi be declared the Prime Minister", according to a top strategist of the party. He placed the number of seats that the BJP needed to ensure Modi's ascension to the top job as "175 at a minimum". Meanwhile, loyalists of the Gujarat strongman are aiming at 220 seats for the BJP in the next Lok Sabha.

220 seats??

I want a peg of whatever they're they're drinking...

Those engaged in the "Modimatics" of poll outcomes point to states across the country to explain their confidence in the outcome. "Take Karnataka, where BJP got 20% and Yeddyurappa 10%. The BJP came to power in the previous election with just 34% of the vote," a poll strategist claimed, adding that the combination of BJP plus Yeddyurappa would push the voting percentage "to well past 35%", thereby "ensuring that BJP retain its 19 seats in the Lok Sabha if not add to them". In Bihar, another numbers cruncher calculated that the polarisation caused by the JD(U)-BJP break-up "would increase the BJP tally from 12 to 20", while in UP, "Team Modi is aiming at 35 seats in place of the 10 now".

Wow. 20 in Bihar going it alone? 20+ in KA? What're they smoking?

Modimatics gives the BJP 20 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan (up from 4), 23 seats in Gujarat (up from 17), 24 seats in MP (up from 16) and 5 in Delhi (up from zero). The tally in Uttarakhand is calculated at 4, up from a single seat in 2009. Only Chhattisgarh and Assam are likely to see a fall in the BJP tally "although by a total of four seats in both states, maximum". With his strong federalist stance, and the BJP's willingness to carve out new states, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi is considered a likely post-poll ally, its own tally being calculated at "a minimum of 13 seats, with Jagan Reddy getting about 15 in the Andhra segment".

OK, so far so good... though can't help mention the massive "blow to modi" fact that NM couldn't win all 26 seats in Guj even when he is PM candidate....

Anyway, here here the twist starts... and the sources move on from drinking and smoking to injecting potent stuff... sample this:

The BJP, according to these strategists, is likely to break the UPA-created "secularism barrier" with Jagan by (1) becoming the party of governance at Delhi (2) viewing his legal travails — seen as politically motivated — sympathetically and (3) fully backing him once he emerges as the largest force in the Andhra half of the state.

The Hindu-nationalist good-governance party wants to cosy up to YSJ in AP? No wonder TDP is dancing with joy..../snark off. Smells like all this stuff has been pulled outta some musharraf only... of a "trusted source" only, hopefully...

The federalist argument will also be used to woo Naveen Patnaik, who is calculated as being the winner of 12 seats. "Narendra Modi has come from the states and understands their plight. He will ensure proper devolution of power down the ladder of governance." The federal factor is expected to overcome the fear factor created by the Secularism Barrier against a Modi-led dispensation. They point out that the AIADMK will get "at least 25 LS seats" and that it is very unlikely that this "will ever go to the UPA". These sources expect the BJP to get "a few seats" in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, as well as a solitary seat in Kerala (Kasaragod) "because of polarization".

They don't know JJ, clearly. Ask ABV. Anyway, kasargode, eh? Soon KL shall become "KasarGode's own country" ...

As for naveen, who knows... he's facing anti-incumbency and NM should ram home his advantage against BJD now. Post-poll patch-ups can happen post-poll only.

Turning to the BJP's allies, a senior BJP source claimed that "discussions are on with the NCP to bring that party into a BJP-MNS-NCP alliance". However, others said that "while Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navanirman Sena is welcome to join, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will continue. The calculation is that the two will get a total of "at least 30 seats" from Maharashtra in the new Lok Sabha. As for Punjab, the Akalis are expected to get at least 7 seats, while Om Prakash Chautala has been bracketed with five and Babulal Marandi with the same number.

So now the Hindu-natioanlist good-governance party wants to cosy up with powarful, eh? At least some among the powarful are reportedly shareholders in the unlisted D-company, 'sources' say...
BTW, is that news about sri choutala a given? Is INLD part of NDA semi-formally at least? That's great news..

Very little expectation is there that either Mayawati or Mamata Banerjee will join hands with the NDA, "although they will find it difficult to go along with the UPA either".

Clearly, they under-estimate Maya. INC will be happy to have a suitably remote-controlled Maya as PM if it allows UPA to return to satta... As for mamta, I say, BJP should go all out to hurt TMC in the coming panchayat polls so that Mamta is more amenable to reason come LS polls and post-polls...

Meanwhile, some heartening noose...seems Nitish babu ain't the only one who can play short term treachery to selfish gain...

As for the JD(U), the expectation is that there will be a post-poll split in the party, with the majority of MPs crossing over to the NDA, leaving Nitish Kumar together with his chosen partner, the Congress.

"Add to that about 9 MPs from the Northeast, Sikkim and Independents, all of whom always back the winning side, and a Modi-led NDA will have as comfortable a margin as in 1999," these sources claimed.

The All India Congress Committee headquarters would, of course, disagree.

Ensoi. Read it all only...

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 21 Jul 2013 07:13

What happened to Modi?
Tavleen Singh Posted online: Sun Jul 21 2013, 03:58 hrs

If you have noticed of late sympathy for Narendra Modi in this column, you would have noticed right. The reason for my having seen Modi in soft focus was because he articulated an economic vision for India that, I believe, can bring back hope to a country that needs urgently to emerge from the socialist tokenism of the past decade. The schoolchildren who died last week from eating mid-day meals are only a small and tragic symptom of how horribly things have gone wrong in the name of the poor.

Tokenism has been the leitmotif of Indian socialism always. So technically we have enough schools, hospitals, food, jobs, pensions and whatever else ‘the poor’ need. But, in reality, the schools and hospitals are just buildings. Food grain rots in the open and the guaranteed employment has gone mostly to those who already had jobs in agriculture. Half of India’s children are malnourished despite thousands of crores having been spent on the largest school meal programme in the world. The greatest ‘achievement’ of this kind of economic policy is that we have created a handout economy and, because growth rates have halved, it is now unsustainable.

So, when Modi talked of a new way of doing things, a change of direction and a vision that had prosperity as its goal, and not just removal of poverty, it sounded like a beautiful new raga to the ears of your columnist. But now, he seems to have changed the subject, and in doing so, lost my sympathy and made me quite worried about how he has understood the message that ordinary Indians are trying to send him. On my travels outside Delhi and Mumbai, I have made it a point to ask people what they think of Modi and, as I have written before in this space, been quite astonished at how much support he has in rural parts. Not because he is seen as a mighty Hindutva hero, but because they believe he can make India prosperous and strong.

Nobody doubts his nationalism, his patriotism or that he is a Hindu, so why does he need suddenly to start proclaiming these things? When the first hoardings of him appeared on Marine Drive last week, announcing that he was a Hindu and a nationalist, I thought it was the work of some misguided local knicker wallah trying to curry favour with the new leader. Then, more and more hoardings appeared across the city. Messianic images of Modi gazing into the skies with one arm raised and announcing that he was a Hindu and a nationalist. Why? What for?

India is in such dire economic straits that if we get another five years of ‘socialist’ policies, we will almost certainly go back to square one, or more specifically to 1991. This was the year we went broke and were forced to abandon central planning and socialism. The licence raj was curbed till the Sonia-Manmohan government revived it and drove away investors. So what India needs now is not Hindu nationalism or secularism, but a new economic vision and a leader who is prepared to rectify the mistakes that have brought us to a point when children die from eating school lunches.

For a while it seemed to me that Modi could be that leader. But, if all he has to offer is Hindutva, then he is as useless to this country as those who offer us the ‘burqa of secularism’ when we ask why things have gone so very wrong. By changing the subject, Modi has harmed nobody more than himself. He has offered the secularists and leftists who dread him a big, big stick to beat him with and given them good reason to shriek ‘I told you so’ daily from our television screens. Already, in Delhi’s political circles, there is talk of how he ‘peaked too early’, and how in the end he is no more than a provincial leader who has not noticed that India is a little bigger and more complex than Gujarat.

India’s tragedy is that those who are gloating openly over this have nothing to offer us except more of the same. Another five years of ‘socialism’ and you can be absolutely certain that India will go back to being the economic basket case we were when the economy never grew at more than 3 per cent annually and when, in the name of the poor, every important lever of the economy was controlled by officials incapable of making profits for government companies despite state monopolies, even in such simple areas as producing bread. We, who remember those times, can never forget that gooey, plastic taste of Modern Bread or those endless shortages of sugar and milk. How ironic that the Indian economy then was mocked for having a ‘Hindu rate of growth’.

Follow Tavleen Singh on Twitter @ tavleen_singh

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/what- ... /1144446/0

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 21 Jul 2013 07:18

^In summary, Modi should ONLY talk about economy and capitalism, any talk of HINDU or NATIONALISM is haram. Should he deviate from this even a millimeter I will pull him down. Did this woman even see his speech at Ferguson College? I guess she also gets her news from MSM, no matter how biased she thinks it is. Whatever happened to actions speaking more than words? How can these people forget the results seen in Gujarat so easily. It is really hypocritical of them, when they spout all kinds of words of wisdom and then stop believing them at the drop of a hat. Modi is no fool, something that has been proven by him time and again. I for my life cannot figure out how they underestimate him every time and expect him to fall for some trap time and again, in spite of fact that he has been such a survivor. I guess some people are measured by their birth no matter what they accomplish.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 21 Jul 2013 07:26

Arun Menon wrote:^In summary, Modi should ONLY talk about economy and capitalism, any talk of HINDU or NATIONALISM is haram. Should he deviate from this even a millimeter I will pull him down. Did this woman even see his speech at Ferguson College? I guess she also gets her news from MSM, no matter how biased she thinks it is.

IMO what is needed is an Indic identity that re-absorbs those whose ancestors have suffered conversions ... BUT these issues are secondary to the vast majority of the population that is struggling to survive. Anything that is not directly connected to issues of survival will have limited appeal.

If you want to promote the scholarly works of Sitaram Goel, Ram Swarup etc among the elites of all religions then that is all right but it is not a mass issue at this stage of social development.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Jul 2013 07:40

Narayana Rao wrote:Guruji, Cases can be created on the basis of nothing. We know what happened to Pragnya Singh Tkakur and the Army Officer. Thye have no case on either of them. If MHA can one day say that girl is LET and now says she is innocent girl and cases are being filed on such basis and all media drama can be created in our nation, believe me it is not that difficult to create a case on NaMo. We may even see his name linked to that encounter case itself. Safed Dadi theory is already put in place. They have lok ayuktha with them and INC got him in place to create lot of cases. Ultimately they all fail to get a conviction. but that is one generation away.

But I wonder if INC be that foolish. Already news reports suggests that INC realizing its mistake of too much attacking on NaMo. Outsourcing the attacks to CBI at this stage seriously boomerang and lead to huge Hindu mobilization in BJP favour. But one can be expect careful behavior with present day INC they seems to have lost all senses now a days.

By the way Modi always has the option of not issuing a gazette notification appointing the lokayutta. There is no time frame imposed on him by the constitution to do so. So congress will again bit dust. All they will do is keep harping on why he is not appointing a freaking stupid lokayutta. Yeddy is the biggest fool on earth to appoint one.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Jul 2013 07:45

From Sunday Guardian

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/buzzword

BJP leaders worry Modi fallout

Senior BJP leaders are worried that Narendra Modi's emergence has divided the "pollscape" into pro and anti Narendra Modi forces, relegating issues such as corruption and economy to the background. Worse, according to BJP's internal surveys, the Brahmins in Uttar Pradesh are not very enthusiastic about Modi and are turning toward the Congress. The OBCs too are not very keen on Modi.

Any truth to this. What is he saying, neither brahmins nor obc's like modi. So who the heck do the voters of UP like, only mullah yadav and mayawati i guess. Are the brahmins of UP again proving to be jaichands and voting congress. Well I dont want to go overboard, becos there are bunch of surveys that shows BJP gaining ground in UP.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Jul 2013 07:55

it must be kangrez moles.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Jul 2013 09:04

Sure enough.... the brickbats have started on why CMO is yet to issue the lokayukta notification... so what if Sheila madam is yet to do the same...
Congress compares Modi to Hitler, says Gujarat CM stalling Lokayukta appointment to hide black deeds

Modi's "hyped self righteousness and the hypocrisy of BJP" have been exposed, spokesperson Raj Babbar said at the AICC briefing, and demanded that the Gujarat chief minister apologise to the people of his state.

Sadly for the psecs, NM cannot be browbeaten into doing the things they want done. Unlike ABV, LKA or BSY. Good luck trying, though.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 21 Jul 2013 09:59

muraliravi wrote:From Sunday Guardian

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/buzzword
Any truth to this. What is he saying, neither brahmins nor obc's like modi.

BUZZWORD!!

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 21 Jul 2013 10:19

NaMo team to punch holes in food security platter

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/NaMo-te ... IIndiaNews

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 21 Jul 2013 12:56

I would say one thing on narendra modi, if a society and nation as a whole cannot see the truth from clutter, it deserves to be ruled by those who threw the clutter, it is law of nature, no ifs or buts about it. If India media or people have not seen and understood the narendra modi speech on 28th February and keep spewing crap about him in rest of India it is the issue of society at large and it's understanding of politics. In Gujarat people have seen the crap and have risen above it. NM may not be lucky in rest of India though, and as a Gujarati it is a welcome news for people of Gujarat as he will stay where he is and grow it even further.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 21 Jul 2013 12:59

I notice a lot of overseas Indians are viciously anti-Modi. They slander and dismiss him as a demon at every public forum they get. One data point I picked up was that they feel his brand of nationalism ran counter to "globalization". I think what they mean is that the US shunning of Modi has made them very nervous about their ability to participate "globally", and so they rush to take a safe position at every opportunity they get. They usually have the attitude of "Indian political scene is hopeless anyway", and yet they will say ,"still, anyone is better than Modi". Apparently, they don't care if India continues to languish as a mediocre third world banana republic with lots of "potential" and Bollywood PR, as long as it doesn't threaten their standing in whichever country they thrive. I see this attitude with a lot of yuppie folk in India, too. I'm not going to keep my hopes up for 2014.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 21 Jul 2013 13:15

Chaiwala UP bhaiya on Delhi street Q "Is bar kaun ayega?". "Modi". Who cares what a section of NRIs or lefties think? It is the people on the street who will decide.

Yayavar · Post by **Yayavar** » 21 Jul 2013 13:26

Agnimitra wrote:I notice a lot of overseas Indians are viciously anti-Modi. They slander and dismiss him as a demon at every public forum they get. .

I hope not, but what is your sample size?

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 21 Jul 2013 15:05

That section almost entirely consists of cherry=picked lefties who were given scholarships etc and fully converted to gungadin jaichand jaffars

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 21 Jul 2013 17:32

Hari Seldon wrote: BTW, where's our venerable sanku ji? .

Very much here Hari ji; just watching, with some sense of amusement.

niran · Post by **niran** » 21 Jul 2013 17:35

Agnimitra wrote:I notice a lot of overseas Indians are viciously anti-Modi. see this attitude with a lot of yuppie folk in India, too. 2014.

I still find lotsa folks viciously dissing India and fanatically support Khalistan
They all are very influential this raises a question
so ? wat will they ukhado?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 21 Jul 2013 17:38

Subramanian Swamy says if Narendra Modi becomes PM, Ram temple will be built

"India is 80 per cent Hindu. If we rally the Hindu vote and wean away 7 per cent of the Muslim population to our side, we will win the elections. There are sharp divisions in the community. The Shias, Barelvis and Ahmadis are already aligned with the BJP. There's nothing called a consolidated Muslim vote-bank. Look at the brutal persecution of Shias in Pakistan. The strategy should be clear. Unite the Hindus under one flag and divide the Muslims."

And while party president Rajnath Singh does a deft balancing act on Hindutva, Swamy minces no words on espousing the Ayodhya plank. "If Modi becomes PM, the Ram temple will definitely be built in Ayodhya. There's no going back on this issue. We will take the legal route and convince Muslims. The temple was always on BJP's agenda and Ayodhya was a rallying point for the NDA in 1998."

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Jul 2013 18:31

The BJP on Thursday announced 20 committees to look into various aspects of electioneering for the upcoming Assembly elections in five States and 2014 General Election.

Central Election Committee

Chairman: Narendra Modi

Members: Murli Manhar Joshi, Venkiah Naidu, Nitin Gadkari, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Ananth Kumar, Thawar Chand Gehlot and the three Chief Ministers of States Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh and Manohar Parrikar

The Parliamentary Board had authorised Rajnath singh and Modi to form entire election campaign. The committees are as follows:

Manifesto Committee headed by MM Joshi

Members: Yashwant Sinha, Prem Kumar Dhumal, Jaswant Singh, Sushil Modi, Vijay Malhotra, Jewel Oram, Lakshmi Kant Chawla, Satyapal Malik, Bijoya Chakravarty, Shahnawaz Hussain, Kanchan Gupta, Mahesh Sharma

Vision Document Committee to be headed by Nitin Gadkari

Members: Omprakash Koli, Prof Hari Babu, Mahesh Sahasrabuddhe

Electronic campaign Committee: Sushma Swaraj, Aurn Jaitley,

Rally Organisation: Ananth Kumar, Varun Gandhi

Parlimentary constituency conferences at Booth level-

Headed by Thawar Chand Gehlot, JP Nadda, Purushottam Rupala, Vinod Pandey (UP), L Ganeshan

Targetted conferences – Murli Dhar Rao, Vinay Kaitar, Shyam Dyaju, Krishna Das, Louis Marandi, Vijay Sonkar Shastri, Mahendra Pandey

Campaign for new voters- Amit Shah, Trivendra Rawat, Poonam Mahajan, Navjot Siddhu

Traditional Campaign- Smriti Irani, Captain Abhimanyu, Vani Tripathi

Mobilising Intellectuals — Rajiv Rudi, Prakash Jawadekar, Tamil Esai

Special Contact Programmes- Nitin Gadkari (head), Uma Bharti, CP Thakur, JK Jain, Kalraj Mishra, Kiran Maheshwari

Election Organisation- Ram Lal, V Satish

Charge sheet committee to focus on 9 years of misgovernance by UPA

Gopinath Munde, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Arti Mehra, Kirit Sommaiya, Nirmla Sitharaman, Meenakshi Lekhi

Information communication Campaign ( that will handle the social networking)- Piyush Goel, IT communication cell of BJP

People sourcing- Dharmendra Pradhan, Rameshwar Chourasia, Manohar Lal, Nalin Kohli

Literature Committee- Balbeer Punj, Prabhat Jha, Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, Sudha Malaiyya

Rally programme and travelling coordination- Mukhtar A Naqvi, Anil Jain, Arun Singh

North East Special Campaign- SS Ahluwalia, Tapir Gaom, Padmanabha Acharya, Kiran Rijju

Election Commission & Legal Matters – Satpal Jain, Bhupendar Yadav, Ramakrishna, Pinky Anand

Booth committee coordination- Rajiv Rudy, Sudha Anand, Renu Kushwaha

Mass campaign committee- Friends of BJP

Delhi Assembly elections incharge Nitin Gadkari along with Navjot S Siddhu.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Jul 2013 20:26

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 21 Jul 2013 21:06

Muppalla ji, source please?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 21 Jul 2013 21:12

and what is nda and others and who are upa?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Jul 2013 21:17

Ashok Sarraff wrote:Muppalla ji, source please?

http://www.ibtl.in/blog/2119/a-storm-na ... -poll-2013

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Jul 2013 21:18

Muppalla wrote:

Above shows UPA III as a possibility.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Jul 2013 21:56

devesh wrote:
Kakkaji wrote:[quote="SaiK"okay, let me ask without repeating.. i want to know what is modi going to bring to us? has he started his agenda yet? my expectations are higher now./quote]

Do you vote in India's elections? If not, why should Modi care what your expectations are?
excellent question. one all of us need to ask ourselves.

[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]
The answer from my heart is YES. The answer from our democratic setup and politics says NO.

Let me ask you this question: so, to ask for what he brings to table, does it necessarily be voting minds to ask these questions? let me tell you those voting minds : are those who does not ask questions.. they will be loaded in lorries and trucks, paid for their booze and daily wages. and this is the India you want [this is exactly INC does]?

Let me ask you another question: what is that you feel that I don't deserve an answer?

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 21 Jul 2013 23:58

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Jul 2013 00:25

^at 0:44, why would not an young indian not qualify for being a citizen?

subliminal!!!! folks.. this is hurting mr. gandhi more than anything else. i think it is a freudian slip.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 22 Jul 2013 01:53

disha wrote:
Muppalla wrote:
Above shows UPA III as a possibility.

No. Others get significantly more seats that UPA in both scenerios. No way Congress is going to head the govt. We might have a Chandra Sekhar type of govt for short time.

However this projection is worthless since it does not take the electoral alliances into consideration.

For example, in the last election, Trinamool won big in WB as it has the alliance with Congress with lefts close behind in almost all constituencies. This time, INC and Trinamool will fight independently, which means leftists will win big.

Bihar is a similar situation too. Last time, RJD and INC fought independently. With the split in "secular" vote, JD(U)+BJP combo won big. This time around, INC and RJD might have an alliance. As a result JU(D) will loose big, but we do not know how well BJP will consolidate the "non-secular" vote.

Yeddy support/joining BJP will deliver Karnataka to BJP.

Telangana will also be in play this time if BJP and TRS fight together.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Jul 2013 03:10

ashashi wrote: For example, in the last election, Trinamool won big in WB as it has the alliance with Congress with lefts close behind in almost all constituencies. This time, INC and Trinamool will fight independently, which means leftists will win big.

Actually, it is the lack of presence of a strong or significant BJP that throws things here out of balance. Here the "secular" vote is being split among all three of TMC/Left/INC. Note that if TMC can hold its own flock tight - the fear of a leftist resurgence brings anti-Left vote to TMC, and provincial INC at grassroots level will still favour TMC. The HC will impose an enforced alliance with Left under the table - but it will not work. The Left has been gone onlee for such a short while that the spectre is not gone from the mind of the anti-left.

The "radicals looking for a cause" that form the bulk of "Kolkata" "aantels" - which went over to the CPI style "liberalism" have swung back to anti-TMC stance - but this does not really align with population perceptions this time around [it did in the previous round]. It will be too early to predict a demise of TMC - but as I had predicted a year before TMC came to power - this time around, the Left will be back with greater numbers than the previous round.

Bihar is a similar situation too. Last time, RJD and INC fought independently. With the split in "secular" vote, JD(U)+BJP combo won big. This time around, INC and RJD might have an alliance. As a result JU(D) will loose big, but we do not know how well BJP will consolidate the "non-secular" vote.

JU(D) likely to be wiped off - but INC will play a hand in both Laloo and Nitish. Laloo is a slave of the HC since the INC has too much dirt on him. Its like Mayavati or Mulayam - they all have too much dirt on each other to ever be really independent of each other. So in that sense, INC is freer to to try and rope in Nitish or even a part of JU(D). The jury should still be out on whether JU(D) goes with INC or not. Laloo might not be that strong a tiger as is made out to be on the media sometimes.

Yeddy support/joining BJP will deliver Karnataka to BJP.

Definitely. It was a good thing that Yeddy learnt his lesson - or more importantly, the political elite was shown the real insignificance of Yeddy the individual - and the strength of Yeddy the BJP man.

Telangana will also be in play this time if BJP and TRS fight together.

Very tricky. Several forces out desperately to keep them separate - because if this one falls, Andhra's long walk back to the "hindu" will be accelerated. At the moment it is just under the radar.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 22 Jul 2013 04:41

Bekaar Patel has puked a literally 'below-the-belt' hitjob on NM in live mint that I will not dignify with a link.

Suffice to say it has provoked disgust even among people normally averse to NM.

Are journos under sooo much pressure or is the 'social proof' in journalism ("everyone's doing it, so must be OK") this stifling? Time will tell, or won't, maybe.

Sample some bilge here...

Ten things that characterize Narendra

The first thing is that Narendra always loved dressing up. It is not easy to find a photograph of his where he is not fully kitted out.

Second, he was always chubby and in some angles appears rotund, but that did not embarrass him and it doesn’t take away from the fact that the dressing is deliberate. His clothes, not inexpensive, were made so that they hid his lack of fitness. To him the externals mattered.

Third, there was an end to this sense of style, and this end was posing for the camera. There are few people of his fame who have spent as much time in studios looking firmly into the near distance, or holding up their arm and pointing somewhere. The poses held are not romantic. They communicate something heroic. The posing came from a desire that he be recognized as doing something great, and the poses were probably rehearsed before fame arrived.

Fourth, Narendra saw himself in messianic terms much before others began to see him in this way. This feeling came to him very early, and stayed with him. He also found his cause early, and it was the nation. He was always warmed by how magnificent India was in so many aspects and felt that his role in life was to amplify this. He was attracted towards the idea of India as a Hindu nation, and it is in the company of like-minded people that he became certain of what was wrong and what it was that needed fixing. In their company he flowered.

In his early youth, fifthly, he decided to leave home. This is an Indian cliché, and from the Buddha downwards, the Indian male has found his mission by running away.

Narendra says he was, in this period, a wandering monk. There are photographs he has to prove this, but most of them look like they have been posed for.

Hit job after hitjob... BUt none hurt 'em psecs more than this... 10s of 1000s of man-hours and woman-hours spent digging for dirt on the man's private life yielded a big nothing...

Sixth, Narendra was celibate. It isn’t clear why. This is one of the mysteries because unless we are blind we can see that women flung themselves at him. And we know from his manner of speaking that he had a sense of playfulness. He wasn’t ascetic in any other way, except sexually (he loved eating), and there is no indication that he was repelled by women.

Perhaps he thought that his cause was too big for him to enter the ordinariness of a normal life. There is great pleasure in renunciation.

And here is the *lowest* blow....

This, then, is the story of Narendra Datta, also known as Swami Vivekanand.

You will have noticed that the 10 things listed here are as true of the other Narendra, the one of our time.
Vivekanand thought, in my opinion rightly, that he could transform India by reforming its religion. He failed. Modi thinks he can transform India by reforming its politics.

#aakthoo only. Bekaar attacks Swami Vevekananda, a man whose integrity, character and spiritual achievements are way beyond Aakar's puny imagination. Wahan MuKa attacks Shri Raama. As does Diggy Raja. MIssionaries and evajehadis do it on a daily basis in a 1000 different places all over India. Wow. Thanks, mussay, these jerks are helping much in waking even the determinedly sleeping parts of Hindu polity. or so I hope.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jul 2013 05:03

http://www.livemint.com/Page/Id/2.0.2662874709

Congress tally to decline, but BJP will fall short in 2014: survey
An Edelweiss Financial Services survey has projected a hung Parliament in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections

A new survey has projected a hung Parliament in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the single largest party with 145-155 seats. This is because the Congress party, despite its poor governance record, will lose ground, yet come a close second with 130-140 seats.

The survey conducted by Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd, an investment advisory firm, also said the main opposition party would improve on its 2009 performance by consolidating its core constituencies of upper caste, urban and educated voters and make gains in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

The Congress may do better in Karnataka and Bihar (But this will also go away after yeddy is fully on board and survey is redone, meaning +10 to BJP kitty and -10 on Congress kitty) but the snapping of its alliance with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu will weaken its prospects in these states, the poll said.

The survey conducted in 10 big states—Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Rajasthan—also concluded that the relevance of caste, the importance of pre-poll alliances, the role of governance and the electoral cycles of the states were the key themes that provided the basic framework to analyse the contours of electoral politics in India.

The analysis of the ground-level situation in Uttar Pradesh, the politically crucial state that sends 80 lawmakers to the 545-member Lok Sabha, said that the BJP is expected to make gains by consolidating upper caste votes, mainly due to the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who heads its campaign team.The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), which has 22 seats in the Lok Sabha, may gain minority votes, but lose Dalit and upper caste votes it won in the 2012 assembly election. The survey said the SP could win 25-27 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 21-23 and the BJP 21-23, leaving just 7-9 for the Congress that had won 23 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

In Maharashtra, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats, the opposition Shiv Sena and BJP, which are alliance partners, may cash in on the anti-incumbency factor and win 10-12 and 15-17 seats, respectively. But the Maharahstra Navnirman Sena, a splinter group of the Sena, could be a spoiler and split the opposition alliance’s vote.(Modi can fix this and push BJP up by another 5 seats and push UPA down another 5)

In Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress is struggling to resolve a crisis arising out of the demand for a separate Telangana state, the ruling party may face a major electoral setback because of the newly formed YSR Congress. The Congress is not expected to improve its seat position against the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and may lose its dominance in Rajasthan, where runs the government, to the same party. But its recent victory in the Karnataka state elections may be repeated in the parliamentary election. The split in the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance in Bihar is likely to help the BJP mobilise upper caste votes, while a possible alliance with the Congress may help JD-U to consolidate minority support.

The analysis said Tamil Nadu’s ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to sweep the parliamentary election due to its alliances as well as governance record. In Gujarat, where the Modi-led BJP has been dominating politics, the society is “fairly fragmented in BJP’s favour.”The survey said the Left Front that ruled West Bengal for more than three decades before being bested by the TMC in 2011 will regain some of its lost ground. It tally may go up to 21-23 from the present 15 seats in the state.

G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, a psephologist who works closely with the BJP, said it was too early to gauge the public mood.
“Election is still months away and you don’t get the public mood so clearly. This has been the trend in the past too—the public mood is more visible (closer) towards the elections. Anti-incumbency could not get factored into the opinion polls now. However, it reflects the real mood. Unlike in 2004 and 09, the public anger against the government is visible even now,” he said.Balveer Arora, chairman of Centre for Multilevel Federalism, a New Delhi-based think tank, agreed that it was too early to reach a conclusion. “What the Congress is trying to do now is to limit the BJP’s growth in its stronghold. The ruling party is wooing the tribal votes that had shifted to the BJP. Ultimately, the pre-poll alliances matter—whether the Congress will be able to go as UPA with more partners, that is where it is expecting to trump BJP.”

Overall this seems like a reasonable survey. If they fix KA (i think they have), get MNS and Marandi on board, another 20 will come BJP's way and 20 away from congress. So I expect finally 170 for BJP and 115 for Congress.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Jul 2013 05:08

people can be swayed in by performance alone.. if those middle class voters who generally do not vote, can be captured, then modi with his performance data can swing. nearly 35% vote base is what i am talking.

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 22 Jul 2013 07:10

today's TOI is hitting Modi hard on declining spending in rural and urban areas. It is the top story on front page.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Gujarat-slides-in-both-rural-and-urban-spending-data-reveals/articleshow/21229651.cms

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 22 Jul 2013 07:36

Sri wrote:today's TOI is hitting Modi hard on declining spending in rural and urban areas. It is the top story on front page.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Gujarat-slides-in-both-rural-and-urban-spending-data-reveals/articleshow/21229651.cms

Case of garbage in, garbage out.

If per capita GDP ranking of the state has remained the same or marginally improved, but consumption ranking has declined - that can only mean that ranking on the basis of per capita savings has gone up. Which means Gujarat has done more than its GDP rank suggests in propping up the Indian economy, since savings (= investment) is what counts towards generating future growth for the country.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 22 Jul 2013 08:13

any study or theory which has an obsession of spending==growth needs to be watched for its source. Entire West has been thrown into a deep hole based on that theory. now we have money printing to avert disaster.

Indian better not travel the same path. there has to be some accountability.