Service Vs Manufacturing for mass job creation in India

[Theo_Fidel]

Premkumar,

Can I just say that I read the article and it was one of the most hilarious things I have ever read. Comedy #1 from start to finish.

Let me start with this.
Presumably the author designed this. I mean this thing is not an orphan, it is misbegotten cyclops.


And he is lamenting his inability or failure to be hired to design this.



I mean what kind of nonsense is this. He claims his sum total contribution is ripping off foreign designs, very poorly I might add and then he laments that folks like him were not hired to design new equipment. Has he ever paused to wonder why. They were not hired because they were NOT useful on the world stage. Their designs from the 70's & 80's were horror shows of poor ergonomics, terrible quality and inability to mass manufacture. Indians got the shock of their lives when liberalization occurred and they were exposed for the first time to what design really could achieve.

There was never a golden age of design in India, it was horror show from start to finish, and the author himself confesses to participation in this disaster. The entire Canon camera is designed since the 60's on CAD software. Where were these folks when the world was passing them by? Still doing manual drafting?

Look you want to design good equipment in India, people are going to have to want to buy good equipment. Good equipment does not come cheap. The few times I have done projects in India I could not even get the clients to pay 30% more for proper concrete slabs. How many people want to buy the Canon camera in India, vanishingly few.

First build world quality companies, educate people to use and work to world quality manufacturing and the world quality designs will then come..... ...not from the old manual drafting chamcha network....

[Vayutuvan]

>> First build world quality companies, educate people to use and work to world quality manufacturing and the world quality designs will then come..... ...not from the old manual drafting chamcha network....

Theo ji

It is a chicken and egg situation. The cardinals of manufacturing should pony up the money and hire away people going into IT-vity. As the saying goes if one pays peanuts then one gets only monkeys for employees. Chinese have done what is in under their control, i.e. spend money on in bringing up the infra to world standards. They were ready to take on the job of the factory of the world when the manufacturing jobs migrated out of the high cost countries. We were not ready and missed the bus. My take-away from the article is that there coul;d be a second wave and we should be ready to cash in on this. The precondition is of course infra. and the manufacturing majors ponying up the capital.

[Theo_Fidel]

I agree onlee matrimc,

But I'm willing to leave this decision up to our private sector. They do do new designs all the time but only for stuff that they can get paid for and sell at a profit within India.

For instance take alook at the tractor mahindra is designing for India and the world. They get better every year bt only because they can sell them at a profit.

[subhamoy.das]

service jobs are recession proof but manufacturing ones are not. See how Maruti is surviving slow down

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 704026.cms

[subhamoy.das]

He said that India has used the export of Information Technology services to increase trade with many countries. "Absorption and innovation of new technologies play an important role in growth of economy. The digital revolution implies that new technologies can be transferred much faster from country to country," Roubini said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... ms?curpg=2

[subhamoy.das]

>> First build world quality companies, educate people to use and work to world quality manufacturing and the world quality designs will then come..... ...not from the old manual drafting chamcha network....

Theo ji

It is a chicken and egg situation. The cardinals of manufacturing should pony up the money and hire away people going into IT-vity. As the saying goes if one pays peanuts then one gets only monkeys for employees. Chinese have done what is in under their control, i.e. spend money on in bringing up the infra to world standards. They were ready to take on the job of the factory of the world when the manufacturing jobs migrated out of the high cost countries. We were not ready and missed the bus. My take-away from the article is that there coul;d be a second wave and we should be ready to cash in on this. The precondition is of course infra. and the manufacturing majors ponying up the capital.

I would like to predict that outsourced manufacturing will be catering to local markets and hence the centraliced model will not work any more but federate model - where the same MNC has factories in multiple geographic location to serve the market in that location - will be evolving. So there will be no wave. We have missed the boat and that boat will not arrive again. IT service is also to some extent following this model but to a much lesser extent as delivery happends over the network.

[SBajwa]

What I see in next 10-25 years is the manufacturing returning to the developed world with use of Nano Technology and Robotics. Just last 3 years in USA manufacturing productivity has grown but jobs have not. This points towards robotics.

so!! the time will come when human labor will be expensive as compare to robots and whoever fixes their factories first (to move to robotics) will be a leader in cheap manufacturing.

[SBajwa]

The bigger questions are

How fast can India move its farmers to become Robotic engineers?

How fast can India move its majority of work force dependence on agriculture to something else?

To alleviate poverty in any nation not more than 15% of its population needs to be depend upon agriculture.

[darshhan]

How fast can India move its farmers to become Robotic engineers?

How fast can India move its majority of work force dependence on agriculture to something else?

The answer is not very fast.

[darshhan]

While India absolutely needs a robust and kicking Manufacturing sector to gain self reliance and national edge, it is also true that Manufacturing will no longer be a tool for mass job creation anywhere in the world.

The first thing that strikes you when you visit most of the modern day factories is the serious lack of people on floor. Productivity and automation are continuously increasing.

So in my view manufacturing and mass employment creation need to be delinked. But since India already ranks very low as far as industrial density is concerned, any improvement will be a plus.

[Prem]

About Many-Factoring ...
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/04/manufa ... e-country/
Manufacturing led US economy in growth last year, and would be world’s 10th largest economy as a separate countr

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released data today on “Gross Domestic Product by Industry” for 2012 with details on the contributions to the nation’s economic output last year that originated from 20 different private-sector industry groups and two government categories (federal and state/local). Here are some highlights of the report:2. Among the 22 industry groups, durable manufacturing led the US economy at 9.1%, which was by far the highest growth rate of any industry, and overall manufacturing grew at a rate of 6.2%. Following manufacturing, the information sector had the next highest growth rate of 5.8%.3. Total US manufacturing output last year reached $1.866 trillion, which established a new record high for current-dollar manufacturing output in a single year, breaking the previous record in 2011 of $1.73 trillion. 4. If US manufacturing were counted as a separate economy, it would rank as the tenth largest national economy in the world, see chart above (IMF data here for GDP in 2012). The $1.866 trillion of output produced in America’s factories last year was just slightly below the $2.1 trillion in GDP for the entire economy of Italy, and ahead of the entire national output in India ($1.82 trillion) and Canada ($1.81 trillion).MP: Measured by growth rates in economic output, the manufacturing sector of the economy clearly remains at the forefront of the economic expansion, with especially strong growth in the production of durable goods like automobiles, machinery, appliances, computers and electronic products, and furniture. The manufacturing sector grew last year almost three times faster (6.2%) than the overall economy (2.2%), and the durable goods manufacturing grew more than four times faster (9.1%) than the overall US economy. Of the 2.2% expansion in real GDP last year, about one-third of that growth came from US manufacturing (see Table 2 of the BEA report), even though manufacturing output last represented only about 12% of total GDP.Along with manufacturing output that reached new record highs in current dollars in each of the last two years, and is now close to a record high in constant dollars, the US manufacturing sector earned record profits in each of the last two years, totaling more than $1 trillion for 2011 and 2012 combined. Flush with record-level profits, the manufacturing sector has never been financially healthier than it is today and the future of American manufacturing has never looked brighter. After years of negative reports about the decline of American manufacturing, it’s time to recognize that US manufacturing is alive and well – it’s leading the economic recovery, and poised for even greater growth in the future. Manufacturing remains a critical sector of the US economy, and its importance can be understood by realizing that the output produced by America’s factories is the economic equivalent of adding the entire economic output of Italy, India or Canada to the US economy

[svinayak]

While India absolutely needs a robust and kicking Manufacturing sector to gain self reliance and national edge, it is also true that Manufacturing will no longer be a tool for mass job creation anywhere in the world.

The first thing that strikes you when you visit most of the modern day factories is the serious lack of people on floor. Productivity and automation are continuously increasing.

So in my view manufacturing and mass employment creation need to be delinked. But since India already ranks very low as far as industrial density is concerned, any improvement will be a plus.

This is the era of smart manufacturing. Flexible mfg with direct connection to the market place in all the countries in the world via modern telecom/internet is the new vision. Supply chain in the mfg sector now.
Modern supply chain with global enterprise supply chain technology will be India's answer to the new era.

[subhamoy.das]

The bigger questions are

How fast can India move its farmers to become Robotic engineers?

How fast can India move its majority of work force dependence on agriculture to something else?

To alleviate poverty in any nation not more than 15% of its population needs to be depend upon agriculture.

India needs to move its agri jobs to knowledge jobs and that should be not too difficult provided information highway infrastructures and schools and colleage infrastructure are built at the rigth pace. This is one area where we have not faltered. We are on our way to have millions of knowledge workers exporting 6T worth of services by next decade.

[Theo_Fidel]

To give folks an idea of what world level manufacturing is, the steel shop down the street from me manufactured this component for me. They work to 1/64" tolerance with 1" to 2" thick steel plates. They used my 3-D component model and projected the keys, curves and locks onto a worktable and bent each component to 1/64th inch tolerance for me. The pictures don't do justice to the size of these components and the 200 ton loads they must carry. It is also a compound curve which the pictures also do not show. They bent it like a pretzel and they are just another high skill shop available.

Even after years of searching I can not find any shop in India that can do this for me.

[svinayak]

What about China?

[Vayutuvan]

That is an interesting question by Acharya.

[subhamoy.das]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tec ... 765481.cms

This is how widget manufacturing will happen in india - to replace import and support local consumption and after that export will also happen.

[subhamoy.das]

Some interesting details on agirculture jobs

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 813617.cms

[subhamoy.das]

Incease in IT service jobs 3 times : http://115.113.43.195:5080/pages/viewpa ... d=20121854

But demand for engineering student is on a downhill in IT

[subhamoy.das]

Cross posting from IT thread.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/ ... rs_by_2017

A lot of folks here are sckeptical about the IT enabled knowledge industry driving well paid jobs in this country and which in turn will drive local manufacturing for local market. But it will happen in 2 decades, as i have been projecting and this report also thinks on similar lines. And best part is that there is no competition in this sector from the world!

[chola]

Cross posting from IT thread.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/ ... rs_by_2017

A lot of folks here are sckeptical about the IT enabled knowledge industry driving well paid jobs in this country and which in turn will drive local manufacturing for local market. But it will happen in 2 decades, as i have been projecting and this report also thinks on similar lines. And best part is that there is no competition in this sector from the world!

Yes and the worst part is there is nearly no demand locally. Look at the profile of Wipro, TCS and the rest of them, Dasji. Their revenue is 75% dependent on the US alone.

First of all, 5M jobs by 2017 is a pittance in a nation of 1.2 billion. Secondly, as a tertiary sector that is dependent on American growth and largesse in giving up "well paying" jobs it can never reach a substantial level for India unless the US gives up every programming job it can create to India. And even then it won't be nearly enough.

You cannot escape the tyranny of numbers except in pipe dreams.

[subhamoy.das]

Local demand is also emerging fast. Google and u will find out.

Now coming to your point of dependency on US. Well, u had been such a great advocate of the CHINESE and Asian manufacturing - guess where did they export to ? So if outsourced manufacturing can depend on the largress of US so why not outsourced knowledge industry!

And who said that it is only the programming knowledge jobs that we are after - any knowledge jobs that can be done via a computer is we are after. I think u are not able to grasp this concept inspite you beign a knowledge worker. And who said we donot need manufacturing. Only that we need it in the areas which are high value

A line between a pipe dream and a vision is the person dreaming. I am sure you know which side of the line u stand my friend!

[VKumar]

To create massive employment through manufacture we need massive numbers of MSMEs and they will flower when we have:

1. Massive improvement in Infrastructure

2. Massive changes in labour laws

Rest the entrepreneurs will manage.

#1 is not happening due to massive corruption. #2 is not happening because the Unions are owned by political parties who want votes from pliant labour.

What is Gujarat's recent history in the above two?