Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

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eklavya
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by eklavya »

^^^^
Interesting RCS data:

http://indrus.in/economics/2013/06/28/t ... 26603.html
The Sukhoi Design Bureau has highlighted “the PAK FA’s unprecedentedly low level of radar, optical and infrared visibility.” The T-50’s effective reflective area will amount to 0.5 square metres (its predecessor, the Sukhoi-30MKI, has 20 square metres). This means that the Sukhoi-30MKI appears on the radar screen as a 5x4 metre metal object, while the T-50’s reflection would only be a 1/40 of that, making it much more difficult to notice or aim weapons at it – especially as the machine benefits from the exceptional manoeuvrability that has been a hallmark of Sukhoi fighters.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Sagar G »

If you search you will find more of such "interesting" RCS data having "interesting" figures as well.
Manish_Sharma wrote:Why don't we go for these early versions instead of rafales?
The answer is in the article itself
The fact that India has joined in development of the fighter suggests that the programme is promising and meets the highest standards. New Delhi has allocated almost $25 billion for this purpose and expects to obtain a proprietary version of the fifth-generation fighter by 2018. It is that machine that will be exported, according to Russian specialists, while the Russian-made T-50 will remain an exclusively domestic model – like the American F-22.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Manish_Sharma »

^ Yes Sagar ji, but what I mean is aside from our current plan, we go for these 'earlier version' other than later coming 'special version' instead of Rafale.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Sagar G »

Manish Sharma these earlier versions are Russia specific which isn't going to be available to us no matter what we pay. What we are getting is the export version.
The fact that India has joined in development of the fighter suggests that the programme is promising and meets the highest standards. New Delhi has allocated almost $25 billion for this purpose and expects to obtain a proprietary version of the fifth-generation fighter by 2018. It is that machine that will be exported, according to Russian specialists, while the Russian-made T-50 will remain an exclusively domestic model – like the American F-22.
Got it ???
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ Yes Sagar ji, but what I mean is aside from our current plan, we go for these 'earlier version' other than later coming 'special version' instead of Rafale.
As it is the IAF seems to be grumbling about the %age of composites in the FGFA as too little. Bet there are other issues that will crop up too if we were to consider the PAK-FA - even as a stop gap plane. Good thought, but seems to me not a practical one without huge costs.

IF at all the Rafale is shot down it will be because of the parent company. I think they are asking too much for that plane.

Besides the IAF has matured way beyond the good old days when a vendor could place what they were offering on the table as take-it-or-leave-it. The IAF has tasted the blood of customization and will not let it go - and for good reasons.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by SaiK »

I don't understand here on the price model. they want a separate deal for the 18 a/cs and the rest in a separate deal. I think this is fine as long as the $120M per kat is invalidated, and a reasonable cost of $80M is more correct for the 18 a/cs.

For the rest, we need to find details of what ToTing is happening. Price them separate on a separate deal as well. If they can separate out 18 for costing purposes, we need to separate the ToT deal separate as well, and then purely go on the parts and labor cost model for the rest.

Am I saying something right on the logical price models?

If they can't agree, get the L1 second runner up on the table.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Manish_Sharma »

N Rao ji, Sagar ji thanks for explaining and pointing out.

:oops: Sorry for being such a tubelight.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Katare »

mki's could cost a lot more than rafale in both capital and life cycle time. Rafale, being a newer generation aircraft would also have better availability. Western equipments are in general a lot cheaper that Russian equivalent s. Also HAL production facilities for mkis are booked all the way to 2019, we'll need to create additional capacity. And last and most important factor is that mki is outdated after15 years since its design. It'll need a mjor upgrade to meet current requirements and given russian history with developmental projects, including mki itself, i don't think it is a wise option for us.

domestic programs would take their sweet time to come through, design, production, certification and quality phases and money can't make up for the short falls

Our laws and procedures would not allow us to buy a random fighter aircraft specially the ones that didn't meet the technical requirements in mrca evaluations. If this deal doesn't go through iaf will struggle to stand up on its feet against a two front war. This deal has to work, too much is at the stake....
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Post by SaiK »

Agree on the gen and production capability aspect, but the life span of the platform is the same what it was earlier, as the builds are new, and they are not upgrades. Besides, I doubt IAF will settle for MKI-- or old platform, and they might be seeking all that went into 35-BM, and MKIzing it.

117s engines, more composites, AESA, Brahmos, and perhaps KS172 as well. I would not be surprised MKI taking astra as well.

Regarding resource reuse and concurrent engineering, we need to analyze what common jigs can be used common across MKI, LCA and Rafale.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_26965 »

This MMRCS business is being looked at from filling up the squadron logic, which is very old. Technology changed and so did other factors. Hopefully, they redrafted their priorities.
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Post by member_26965 »

No Mr Troll. I have seen your performance In lego tank thread. I wouldn't like to reply to you.
Sagar G
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Sagar G »

Manish_Sharma wrote:N Rao ji, Sagar ji thanks for explaining and pointing out.

:oops: Sorry for being such a tubelight.
No sorry ji, me a tubelight as well :mrgreen:
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_26965 »

Marten wrote:Ranji, the questions are clearly phrased and have no ill intention other than to understand your posts and their objectives.
If you don't intend answering, you need not bother posting a reply. Right now, with the post above: it's only you who's trolling.

PS: It's ok to say I don't know. Like I did in my post.
I don't agree with you in any of the points you made.
Katare
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Katare »

Ranji,
I would also like to understand the logics behind your post. Should not call people trolls, i know marten for years, you are only a month old so if i were you i would be more careful in calling established members trolls so lightly!
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by SaiK »

To avoid various types of gen differences on the platforms, massans are cool in shifting their ops strategy using capability based architecture, for platforms, mission profiles, and weapon systems. There is no meaning in calling gen x, y, etc. I think, JSF took this architecture model, and I am pretty impressed with their approach. Now, please ignore the negatives that emanate from political and strategic clouts regarding the value of raptors and JSFs., just look at the capabilities alone, and leaving errors and omissions as part of the cycle where they will take their own measures to fix it.

When push comes to shove, and the cr@p hits the fan, is when we realize, what we lack, what we need to gear up to, and what are all the hidden capabilities that comes to surface from the enemy land. MKI answers to many of such capabilities, and added to which, we have own indic component for giving the surprise elements to our enemies. We should not lose that model, even for Rafale.

Kat must be Indianized.
member_26965
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_26965 »

Katare wrote:Ranji,
I would also like to understand the logics behind your post. Should not call people trolls, i know marten for years, you are only a month old so if i were you i would be more careful in calling established members trolls so lightly!
I dont agree with your assessment based on you dealings with him. He even trolled at LCA thread. Just check there.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by SSridhar »

ranji, lay off from calling names. You must take this as a warning and moderate your tone in all threads.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by SSridhar »

ranji, I did not want you to reply to my warning. I am deleting your reply. Any more violation will lead to more drastic actions.
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Post by member_26965 »

** Deleted **

Have issued you a warning. You will be banned if you persist with this behaviour.
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** User Banned **
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Ganesh_S »

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2013 ... ery-Charge
While the dismissal of the Air Force official is unlikely to affect the outcome of the negotiations, Air Force sources said the incident created bitterness among some service officials toward the French company.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Shrinivasan »

Ganesh_S wrote:While the dismissal of the Air Force official is unlikely to affect the outcome of the negotiations, Air Force sources said the incident created bitterness among some service officials toward the French company.
i think certain quarters wanted Dassault to be eliminated pretty early in the game, hence all this setup, methinks they wizened up to this game and complained about this request/demand to babooze. hence they had to take action.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by kmc_chacko »

Sagar G wrote:If you search you will find more of such "interesting" RCS data having "interesting" figures as well.
Manish_Sharma wrote:Why don't we go for these early versions instead of rafales?
The answer is in the article itself
The fact that India has joined in development of the fighter suggests that the programme is promising and meets the highest standards. New Delhi has allocated almost $25 billion for this purpose and expects to obtain a proprietary version of the fifth-generation fighter by 2018. It is that machine that will be exported, according to Russian specialists, while the Russian-made T-50 will remain an exclusively domestic model – like the American F-22.
What ??????????????????????? :shock: :eek:

That cann't be True ! :oops:

If that's the truth. Then we are in a huge lot of trouble .....................

All these years I thought we are equal partners and we get modified PAKFA with inputs from our R&D which will be better than T-50 (Russian version F-22s) and it will be far far far far superior to the Export version and we will have the rights to decide to whom we want to sell & to whom not.

Finally, Just think about Chinese having 40 PAKFA in their AF :twisted:
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Post by Christopher Sidor »

^^^^
PLAAF will get PAKFA though in what quantity is debateable. And we were never an equal partner. Some parts/section of the plane will be built by us for our needs, but the airframe and the engine, will be a russian product from day one.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by SSridhar »

India Unlikely to Finalize Dassault Deal before September - Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu
Two letters by parliamentarians to Defence Minister A.K. Antony are responsible for the Defence Ministry now going through the contract papers with a fine toothcomb. The bigger spanner in the works is the former External Affairs Minister, Yashwant Sinha, questioning the “life cycle cost” criteria or the cost incurred during the service life of the aircraft. He also claimed two of the seven criteria mentioned in the Defence Procurement Policy were not applied to the tender.

The second letter, which like Mr. Sinha’s missive has been referred by Mr. Antony to Ministry officials, alleges manipulation of the entire tender process. Parliamentarian M. V. Mysoora Reddy’s “patriotic responsibility” forced him to speak out against the selection of a company that has not sold a single plane of this type to an overseas customer.
What if another such letter is written in September by another parliamentarian whose name we have never heard of in any defence-related discussions in the Parliament ? Such surges of patriotic fervour in mega defence deals are almost always attempts, for various reasons, to delay or scuttle the project. I am being charitable here.

In the case of Mysoora Reddy, he made a charge in 2012. Is it still being investigated ? Or, is this a new charge ? If this is a new charge, we can be certain that he will raise another charge in September.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by RoyG »

Jeez, I've lost all hope in Rafale, howitzers, etc. The economy is sh*t, corruption is everywhere, elections are around the corner. Forget it. We'll have to wait till next year.
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Post by member_26535 »

http://newindianexpress.com/thesundayst ... 705118.ece

"To assure India that fiscally troubled Dassault Aviation is able to complete the contract obligations in full, the French government will now provide guarantees through an agreement with the Indian government in the MMRCA contract. This new agreement needs to be negotiated and hence the deal could be further delayed,” said a senior Indian defence ministry official"


"Asked if the French were confident of signing the deal before the next Lok Sabha elections scheduled in April-May next year, a source close to the French defence minister virtually confirmed the fears that this may not be possible, saying: “There was never any deadline for signing of this contract. Negotiations are progressing well. Once these are completed, the contract will be signed.”
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by kshirin »

Until we get firm guarantees on workshares and offsets no point going through with any imports. India needs to squeeze every penny of profit and possibility for indigenous manufacture out of such mega deals. our market is huge and we are the only country which doesn't leverage access to it ruthlessly.

http://newindianexpress.com/thesundayst ... 705118.ece


Rafale jet deal put on the back burner, French Minister leaves with hopes alone
By NC Bipindra - NEW DELHI
Published: 28th Jul 2013 08:50:55 AM
French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian came to Delhi, charmed his counterpart A K Antony, but could not conquer.
After three days in India, when he held formal talks with the Indian defence ministry top brass and also lectured the Indian military think-tank IDSA, Le Drian returned home Saturday empty-handed, without even the Rs 1 lakh crore combat jets deal for which French Rafale was chosen as the lowest bidder in January 2012.
Apart from pitching for broader defence ties, Le Drian had to admit he faced the risk of disappointing the discerning strategic thinkers and defence watchers in India and France on the “priority” Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contract.
“Of course, the MMRCA project is the priority. At the risk of disappointing you, I will not be announcing the date of signing the contract,” Le Drian said at IDSA.
The bottom line is: The “most important defence deal in history” to supply Rafale for the Indian Air Force (IAF) may not happen in the near future or during the 2013-14 fiscal, or even during the tenure of the present UPA II government that ends next May.
There were enough signals in this regard during Le Drian’s stay in the Indian capital and during his and his officials’ interaction with the media and the intelligentsia. Le Drian, however, exuded confidence that the contract itself, which was bagged by French firm Dassault Aviation, was not in trouble over the poor financial state of the company.
Dassault Aviation’s Rafale plane had won the stiffly fought four-and-a-half-year contest against European consortium EADS Cassidian’s Eurofighter Typhoon, American major Boeing’s F/A-18 and Lockheed Martin’s F-16, Russian United Aircraft Corporation’s MiG-35 and Swedish Saab’s Gripen.
To assure India that fiscally troubled Dassault Aviation is able to complete the contract obligations in full, the French government will now provide guarantees through an agreement with the Indian government in the MMRCA contract.
“This new agreement needs to be negotiated and hence the deal could be further delayed,” said a senior Indian defence ministry official.
Asked if the French were confident of signing the deal before the next Lok Sabha elections scheduled in April-May next year, a source close to the French defence minister virtually confirmed the fears that this may not be possible, saying: “There was never any deadline for signing of this contract. Negotiations are progressing well. Once these are completed, the contract will be signed.”
The source also noted that the acquisition process for the MMRCA was “complicated” due to “numerous negotiations” for sub-contracts with a large number of Indian Small and Medium Scale Enterprises that are suppliers to the Indian public sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, the primary licenced production agency for the Rafale planes.
The Indian SMEs will be manufacturing and supplying the parts and sub-parts required by HAL to assemble the Rafale at its facility in India. Dassault Aviation will supply the first 18 Rafales from its production facility in France, but HAL will be licence-building the rest 108 Rafales of the 126-plane order at its facility here in India.
That apart, the contract-signing is delayed over issues arising out of the offset provisions, under which Dassault Aviation will plough back 50 per cent of the deal amount in Indian defence sector, through either direct purchases or providing technological know-how.
“These are complicated processes and the proposals for offset and technology transfer have to be gone over through a fine tooth comb,” a defence ministry official averred.
Since the January 2012 selection of Dassault Aviation as the lowest bidder in the August 2007 MMRCA tender, already 18 months have lapsed. With the UPA II government heading towards a General Election, the window of opportunity for signing of the contract within the tenure of the Manmohan Singh administration may end by December 2013.
The nation and its air force may have to wait for the next government before the MMRCA deal is through and the much-needed induction of the new Rafale planes into the IAF fleet may be further pushed to 2018.
The IAF badly needs to reinforce its combat fleet strength due to its fast-depleting numbers, which is likely to dip to 29 squadrons from the present 33 by 2018, as the ageing Soviet-origin MiG-21s’ phase-out will begin in 2017. The induction of Rafales from 2018 will help arrest the depletion of the IAF’s squadron strength, which will go up to 42 squadrons on the strength of the new inductions, which will include the Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) by 2025.
- The Sunday Standard
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Post by Christopher Sidor »

^^^
This is just great, If the deal is not signed before UPA-II ends its tenure, then when will this plane start to get inducted? And in the meantime what should we do, just pray that PLAAF does not get involved with PLA in our northern and Eastern borders?
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Post by Kakkaji »

A new Govt, if it is not UPA3, will open all the files of this deal and go through them with a toothcomb for a couple of years before they even start negotiations again with Dassault.

At this point, I don't think the Rafale will ever show up in IAF colours. :(
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Philip »

More bad news?

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/f ... 982769.ece

France to cut back on Rafale order
The French state has decided to cut back its orders for Rafale fighter jets from the current 11 per year to just 26 over the next six years. This could jeopardise the entire Rafale programme unless Dassault Aviation is able to sign the India contract for the sale of 126 fighters for over €10 billion.

At a press conference here on Friday, France’s Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who returned from a trip to India last week, was blunt: as of 2016, Dassault Aviation should count only on exports to support the production of the multirole combat aircraft. That can mean only one thing: wrap up the contract with India or you’re sunk.

He announced the government’s new Defence Review, known in French as the Draft Military Programme (LPM),for French forces from 2014 to 2019.

After much wrangling with the government, Dassault had obtained the purchase by the military of 11 jets a year. At a recent press conference, Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, the company that makes the aircraft, warned that anything below 11 per year would be commercially unviable for the company. Dassault has been unable to sell a single Rafale abroad, and the company is pinning all its hopes on the Indian contract.

It is unclear what sort of assurances Mr. Le Drian received on his recent trip to India. Did the Indians tell him the contract was in the bag and he felt confident enough to announce cuts in the government’s budget for the Rafale or, on the contrary, is this his way of warning Dassault Aviation and the French public of the woes that lie ahead?

“There are countries that are more than interested in the Rafale and I am speaking particularly of India, Qatar and others, and I am very sure of the Rafale’s export capacity in the months ahead,” Mr. Le Drian said in a radio interview on Friday morning. “I am very hopeful that the negotiations with India will be fruitful.”

Was that his way of sending a positive message to say that relief was on its way because the Indians are ready to sign on the dotted line?

But news from New Delhi points in another direction altogether.

Reports indicate that serious doubts have been raised about the life cycle costs of the Rafale by responsible and respected politicians like the former Finance and Foreign Affairs Minister, Yashwant Sinha, and that Defence Minister A.K.Antony, with his habitual caution, has ordered a cost review which could seriously delay the signature. Beyond October, with elections looming large on the horizon, it is difficult to imagine a quick signature of the biggest defence tender ever floated by India.

The LPM aims to make “exceptional savings,” notably through a reduction in force (RIF) exercise, through the sale of immovable assets belonging to the country’s armed services and by limiting its orders for the Rafale.

The daily Le Monde noted in its edition dated August 2: “To date, the aircraft built by Dassault Aviation has never sold outside France. India could be the first foreign country to equip its air force with it, but nothing is concrete yet. And past mishaps by way of failed negotiations with Brazil and the United Arab Emirates should incite the executive to display greater prudence in the matter.”

As another newspaper, the economic daily Les Echos, pointed out, the army budget is posited on at least one major foreign sale of the Rafale.

Normally speaking, if the current rhythm of delivery to the French military is maintained, Dassault should deliver 66 planes by 2019. But under the LPM announced by the minister on Friday, the French military will purchase only 26 aircraft during this period, creating a shortfall of €4 billion for Dassault.

“Dassault Aviation will have to sell some 40 planes to France’s commercial partners,” wrote Le Monde, if it is to juggle production costs, the army’s requirements and the minimum number of aircraft it must build to maintain the commercial validity of the Rafale programme. “The minister appeared most optimistic that the plane would be sold abroad. But what would happen if foreign sales are not concluded? All the aircraft produced will be bought by the French military. At €100 million apiece, the bill will have climbed to about €4 billion by 2019.” French plans to impose budget cuts could go up in smoke, the paper suggests.

The Indians being fine negotiators have realised that Dassault Aviation is desperate to sell. They are therefore also dragging out the negotiating process in a bid to squeeze every possible concession from Dassault. But there could come a tipping point beyond which the negotiations will stall because of India’s domestic electoral calendar. The Indian Air Force badly needs this plane, and the negotiators should be sanguine enough to move back from the brink before the tipping point is reached.
Byzantine bargaining as usual with AKA displaying his "habitual caution".Read indecision! He took a whole year to sit on gen. AKA's complaint about the alleged Tatra bribe and for many years the services have been wringing their hands at the delay in MOD decisionmaking under his ministership.

I don't think that anyone should be bothered about any future review if a new govt, comes in.The entire deal was undertaken in the strictest manner by the IAF,whose most extensive evaluation in choosing the winner was based upon technical considerations.The Scorpene deal was similarly vetted by the UPA after the NDA had finalised it and it went through after PC's excessive "cost" queries.
In fact if the deal is not finalised,the UPA/Cong. could very well be accused of indifference towards India's security and defence,having procrastinated over so many acquisitions.This could turn into a stick to beat the govt. with during the elections.There's a huge "fauji & family" vote remember!
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by GeorgeWelch »

kshirin wrote:The source also noted that the acquisition process for the MMRCA was “complicated” due to “numerous negotiations” for sub-contracts with a large number of Indian Small and Medium Scale Enterprises that are suppliers to the Indian public sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, the primary licenced production agency for the Rafale planes.

. . .

That apart, the contract-signing is delayed over issues arising out of the offset provisions, under which Dassault Aviation will plough back 50 per cent of the deal amount in Indian defence sector, through either direct purchases or providing technological know-how.
I said before that the deal is too complicated. It is trying to fit 3 competing goals into one contract and thus all 3 goals suffer.

1. Immediate combat air capability increase
2. Technology transfer
3. Manufacturing base build-up

1. Just buy the aircraft you want directly. Obviously you know my preference would be the SH, but even with the Rafale, a direct purchase speeds up the timeline and reduces the cost.

2. Instead of being tied to one ecosystem, you are now free to go purchase whatever technology you want. Everything's for sale and by not being part of a bundle, you
a) Get stuff quicker
b) Can be more targetted about what precisely you want to buy
c) Choose the BEST vendor for each technology instead of being limited to whatever France can offer.

3. Manufacturing. Admittedly, this goal is a bit harder to implement independently, but let me put it this way: In all of HAL's years of contract manufacturing, what has India gained from it? The benefit would seem to be marginal and not worth messing up the first 2 parts of the deal. Forced offsets on a one-off deal seems to be the wrong way of going about it. Looking around the world, the most success seems to have come from the civilian side, and for that designing a clean-sheet airliner seems about the riskiest way possible. Instead, hitch onto Airbus/Boeing/Embraer. They subcontract out millions of components, and not just the manufacture, but also the design. Focus on winning those contracts and building an aerospace industry from the ground up instead of from the top down. Civilian contracts offer the security of a continuing revenue stream that can last for decades, giving the industry time to grow instead of the stop/start nature of military contracts that build something up and then just knock it right back down.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Philip »

GW,one positive development is that at each Aero-India the number of Indian entities manufacturing components,etc., is growing.At the last show I saw one firm which was making wing panels for the LCA.Another made micro-jets perfect for UAVs and missiles,already being exported abroad.Since the first lot of aircraft is anyway being imported ,there is no harm in fixing a deadline for tying up offset loose ends later,findign DPSUs or pvt. industry for the same.The problem seems to be HAL's ability to absorb such advanced tech,perhaps why the ACM criticised it for wanting to drop 35% of the 50% share of the FGFA development and develop the HTT-40 instead.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by GeorgeWelch »

Philip wrote:At the last show I saw one firm which was making wing panels for the LCA.Another made micro-jets perfect for UAVs and missiles,already being exported abroad.
But did that come from offsets for a defense deal or was that developed independently?
kit
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by kit »

I think the deal will be concluded soon., matter of delay with Dassault nitpicking on some details of collaboration.India has options , Dassault doesn't. Lets see. Waiting does have its advantages in a negotiation esp in a deal of this magnitude.
NRao
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

From an Indian point of view, the BEST news.

A few items of interest (I hope):

* This was predicted about 8 years ago. That improvements in the F2/3 were really not needed by the French - nice to have features. They did most of it to export the plane - the initial funds were (seed) were provided by the French gov, with the expectation that the Rafale will sell abroad. It did not so their gov is bailing out - rightly so. This is not a knock on them (either the Gov or Dassault).

* This is similar to the situation faced by Russia in the early 90s (when India bailed out Sukhoi) (when the funds locally were near non existent and yet they needed to support their industry just to survive) . Main diff is that the Russians still had a need to some extent, the French have no need what so ever outside of attracting export orders

* India was willing to go for the M2K to fulfill the MMRCA requirements. The Rafale is a very nice icing on that cake

* With this development one thing should be very clear. Just like the Russians (for their MiGs) the French will rely on India to keep part of their def industries humming

* Also, IF (God forbid) India wants an enhancement to the Rafale, it will cost more than an arm and a leg. And forget any in-house enhancements. Dassault will never allow that (unless they are really desperate)

* The Rafale is a great plane, one that the IAF would be thrilled to have I am sure. BUT, is it the wisest plane for India to procure? TBD.

* IMHO under the circumstances, the F-18 is the best choice
abhik
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by abhik »

Philip wrote:More bad news?

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/f ... 982769.ece

France to cut back on Rafale order
The French state has decided to cut back its orders for Rafale fighter jets from the current 11 per year to just 26 over the next six years. ...
He announced the government’s new Defence Review, known in French as the Draft Military Programme (LPM),for French forces from 2014 to 2019....
The LPM aims to make “exceptional savings,” notably through a reduction in force (RIF) exercise, through the sale of immovable assets belonging to the country’s armed services and by limiting its orders for the Rafale.
France is not the only country which is facing a crunch in the defence spending. So is India. France reassesses its options in light of the changed situation they find themselves in. They review, rationalize and prioritize so that their military and defence industry gets the best deal under the circumstances. But are we having any such review in India? We obviously can't afford all the imports. So which ones get the bin and which ones go through? The ones with the greatest kick backs , or the ones that have the greatest foreign political backing? And why aren't we discussing alternatives? Its quite clear that we can't afford this colossally expensive fighter.
In fact if the deal is not finalised,the UPA/Cong. could very well be accused of indifference towards India's security and defence,having procrastinated over so many acquisitions.This could turn into a stick to beat the govt. with during the elections.There's a huge "fauji & family" vote remember!

I'd rather not equate importing expensive weapon to national security. That's the Arms Dealers line.
Victor
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Victor »

Bottom line, India needs the jets and if they don't come from Dassault, they will come from somewhere else. Add the economic crunch and the F-18 suddenly looks very attractive again. And it is quite possible for Dassault to conclude that it will be cheaper for them in the long run to refuse to be dependent on HAL and walk out. I would not be surprised if they are doing these calculations as we speak. In a perfect world, we would dump the Rafale now and give the F-18 domestic production to an Indian private company of Boeing's choosing. That would be the worst nightmare for pakis and chinese for more than military reasons.
Philip
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Philip »

Abhik,if one goes by costs,of the lot evaluated,the MIG-35 and Gripen are the cheapest,F-16 next.The F-18SH also comes in near the Rafale.The IAF shortlisted the two Eurocanards from the tech evaluation.I doubt that we will go through the laborious exercise of finding an alternative which will never be finalised before the elections.Here's a blog in favour of the Rafale over other types.

(Dassault Rafale: the most lethal non-stealthy fighter in the world-http://zbigniewmazurak.wordpress.com/20 ... the-world/)

We've gone through the whole exercise earlier and what might eventually arise ,from reading between the lines in the latest reports,is that the number of Rafales purchased will be reduced.The total of approx.200 planned will definitely be cut down,just as the number oif FGFAs has been,down to 144,abandoning the two-seat version.Plus,with doubts being expressed about HAL's ability to deliver,to buy more off the shelf as many recommend which will guarantee that the IAF gets enough operational fighters
until HAL is able to get its act together.If we could buy 40+ M-2000s off the shelf,why not do the same with the Rafale?

Alternatives? It will be buying more of the same types already in service.Locally built Super Sukhois may cost the same,MKIs are even cheaper .So we may see even more Flankers bought ,or even the single-seat SU-35 (unit cost according to Wik from $40-65m) which is being equipped with many features that will appear on the FGFA,or acquire a few more MIG-29/M-2000 sqds. if available to keep numbers happy.The hope will be that the LCA MK-2 when it arrives,will be the aircraft that will eventually replace the large number of MIG-21s being retd.,and the IAF will just have to wait for it to be produced in large numbers,firefight in the interim.

This option (extra Flankers) which appeared in the Pioneer earlier was quickly "shot down" by the IAF which said that negotiations were on track.

April AWST report,excerpts:
Under the initial terms of the proposed deal, Dassault was expected to provide 18 fighters in “fly-away” condition, and then let HAL manufacture the rest in India.

However, Dassault now wants two separate contracts to be signed - one for the ready-made ones, and another for the rest to be built by HAL, but India opposes that proposal, an Indian Defence Ministry official told Reuters.

“Dassault says HAL does not have the capacity and capability to assemble the aircraft,” said the official, who declined to be identified because he is not authorised to speak to the media.

“HAL is our main public sector partner. And if needed, capacity and capabilities can be improved. But the proposal for two contracts is not agreeable to the government of India,” he said.However, a recent push by the Defence Ministry to increase local manufacturing of military equipment has renewed concerns about whether Indian companies have the advanced technology and trained staff to build sophisticated defence equipment.

Dassault has previously expressed doubts about the technological capability of HAL to manufacture the Rafale. A HAL programme to manufacture advanced jet trainers is running years behind schedule.
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

GeorgeWelch wrote:
Philip wrote:At the last show I saw one firm which was making wing panels for the LCA.Another made micro-jets perfect for UAVs and missiles,already being exported abroad.
But did that come from offsets for a defense deal or was that developed independently?
No offsets yet in these areas. These are all independent local developments.
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