johneeG wrote:Narayana Rao wrote:BJP has 2 MLAs now and for long used to win Hyd LokSabha seat. But not now, Support in rural ares isnot much. May win Mehboob Nagar with Nagam Janardhana Reddy. Major gains in 2014 may not be possible than that. It will not win a single MLA or MP seat in rest of AP.
This is a Goddess sent opportunity for BJP to capture AP. Kongis were in a jam in the AP. So, they are playing tricks there to divert people's attention from Kongi performance in last 10 years. So, they are playing with T(and consequently AP). For the first time, they have presented pro-separate T stance at center level. So far, they have been doing a careful balancing act without tilting either side after the Dec 9. But I don't think they will form T because
a) they don't have the numbers in assembly or parliament(without BJP) to push it
b) it is detrimental to kongis in the long run(i.e. next elections in 2017-2018).
c) kongis don't take any decisions. They only keep stoking the fires.
But, kongis are pretending to go with separate T. Fine. Now is the time for BJP to take pro-united AP stance. Why? Because, there is too much competition in T region. TRS and Kongis are trying for the same share. And it is not possible for BJP to compete with them at this stage. Even TDP is in a jam because they have also announced the pro-separate T stance. So, everyone is trying for the same share of votes.
That means, there is no one to represent the voices of pro-united AP in AP. And Yrus party is making the most of it. Jagan is being given a clean path to go ahead. But, even he has not really done anything dramatic to win the pro-unity voices.
So, BJP can capitalize on it. If BJP takes a pro-unity stance, then it stands to gain regardless of other factors. First and foremost, kongis are a national party and they have taken a pro-separate stance. Now, only a national party can match a national party. So, if BJP goes with a pro-unity stance, then it would be ek teer do nishan.
I think kongis started this tamasha because they were afraid of Modi coming to Hyd and taking a strong T stance. So, they tried to pre-empt him. Now, BJP can push the kongis into a corner and checkmate them by taking pro-unity stance. By such a move, BJP can gain in Coastal AP and Rayalaseema(and even in T because I think there are lots of people who are not in favour of separate T in T). So far, BJP has not made any gains despite taking staunch separate T stance.
And if BJP gains in AP(in coastal and seema), then that would be a big big jolt to kongi-system.
BTW, breaking AP is not at all good for the country or for telugu people. Remember that AP was formed in direct consequence to Dravidian movement. Formation of AP, deflated Dravidian movement in India, so it was exported into Lanka. IF, Goddess forbid, AP is broken, then it will re-ignite Dravidian movement in India. All the factors are still in place.
Then, there is another point. Separateness of T is based on erstwhile kingdoms. So, that will lead to another thing, sooner than later. Like separate Jaisalmer...etc. And such seperate movements near border areas(like Gurkhaland) will have a very negative impact.
Also, any out of power politician can stir up such movements. KCR took inspiration from Shibu Soren. Now, IF this goes through many more will take inspiration. I won't be surprised if 600 new states are formed in next 50 years. Because there is no dearth of power-hungry selfish politicians in desh.
Finally, it is the jihadi rule of Nizams is being used to project T as separate from rest of the Telugus. And this has all the tendencies of pakiness. Infact, this is very similar to partition and a new state will act like a paki state only trying to foster separateness by focusing on nizams(just like pakis focus on mughals). BTW, I am a telanganite(born and bred && through and through).
It is a wrong idea to think that all telanganites support separate T. Infact, the great mischief is the term 'seema-andhra'. The right term is 'seema-coastal andhra'. All the three regions T, seema and coastal are Andhra only. Disassociating from the identiy of Andhra itself is ignorance or worse pakiness. KCR and his gang(or more precisely his family) are already trying to exaggerate the slight differences that may exist. KCR has even praised Nizam. No wonder because people like him were imported by Nizam from coastal region to undermine the native T guys. If a seperate state gets formed, it will be worse. It is very recently that the system of Dhoras is getting undermined. A T state can regress in terms of social justice and again the advent of Dhoras may also happen. And of course, there will be political instability due to the smallness of the state, that means the minority votes will increase in value. Further, small new state will be vulnerable to naxals(like Jharkhand and Chattisgarh). So, that opens the opportunities for naxals to implement their plans of Thirupathi to Pashupathi.
All in all, this is not good for country or telugus or Hindhus. But, there seems to be no party that can take a stance in this regard. Everyone seems to be trying only for pro-seperate votes only(not just in AP). It is quite similar to how everyone is trying for minority votes. That means there is no competition for majority votes. Similarly, there is not competition for pro-unity votes(particularly in AP). So, BJP can take advantage of this situations. Even RSS is supposedly against seperate T state, and righly so. Because it is based on the legitimacy of jihadi state of Nizam.
I believe the kongis are only faking it, so as to divert, obfuscate and fool people(of both pro-separate and pro-unity sides). KCR and Jagan are kongi puppets just like Chiru. And CBN has failed spectacularly showing that he is not fit to play politics and he has been trapped. Just when the CBN was again raising, kongis open it again. They have been doing this for last 5 years, yet CBN has not caught on. Kongis have given worst rule in AP, especially the load-shedding(even in Hyd for 3-4 hours) everyday for 3 years. Yet, CBN is unable to capitalize on it. He seems to be mega-failure just like Advani at center. Just as BJP has come up with a new face, maybe TDP can go with a new face and change in policies.
The advantage that Modi has is that he has not spoken on T so far. So, he can easily justify a pro-unity stance. Because the leadership in BJP has changed, a change in stance can be justified. And I think the reason Modi has not come to Hyd, so far is because he was waiting for kongis to clear their stand one way or the other. Now, that kongis have done it, Modi can take opposite stand. There is a huge number of votes waiting to be taken, if BJP can take pro-unity stance.
I think the Kongi strategy is that they will pretend to go with pro-separate T. But, they will not form it. They will stop short of it. Then, they will ask for votes on it. TRS and Kongis will either merge or form an alliance. That will leave the field open for Jagan. And he will form a post-poll alliance. Thats the kongi strategy.
This strategy is based on the assumption that BJP is going pro-separate. So, kongis are also pro-separate. They have already played their hand. If in this critical juncture, BJP makes a new move, that too in coastal and seema area, it will be a disaster for the kongis. It seems like AP is going to be waterloo of kongis. But, the question is can BJP capitalize on this? And will telugus and country suffer as kongis destroy themselves?
In last elections, TRS had an alliance with TDP. BJP had gone very strongly with pro-separate T. Yet, all the three parties failed spectacularly in T region itself(not talk of rest of AP). Yet, no one seems to have learned any lessons. On the contrary, kongis got more MP seats than MLA seats. There was a perception that Kongis will not form T. This perception was further stoked by YSR who declared that visas would required to go to Hyd if a separate T is formed. The irony is that it was YSR who had played with separate T and formed alliance with TRS to defeat TDP. TDP tried to emulate YSR and kongis. They failed.
What does that show? Why did Kongis win more MP seats than MLA seats? Because, there is a strong pro-unity block that voted kongis because they were trusted not to give separate T. Now, the same block will vote for any party(particularly a national party) if it takes a pro-unity stance. People are quite intelligent to differentiate between MP elections and MLA elections. So, BJP can definitely hope to win at least 10 MP seats in AP, if it takes pro-unity stance now. And such a stance will also provide BJP with workers and leaders(who are already trying for united AP).
As I said, all the parties are only trying for pro-seperate votes. So, the politicians are also in a jam(specially in coastal and seema regions). If BJP, a national party, takes pro-unity stance, such people can jump ship to BJP. And it will be a big blow to kongis.
This move, right now, I think will be a master stroke. IF BJP can pull it off. At least, it should try. Instead of going with the same old failed formula. I don't think BJP can really get any seats in T region, now that kongis themselves have put up this new stand. And this new stand by kongis was put up precisely to stop any potential votes/seats going to BJP. Kongis are playing with a fear of Modi in their minds. That is making them do extra-ordinary things. Can BJP capitalize on this?
All the BJP leaders in T region are really jaded lot. And have not done anything. So, even if they are against such a change in stance, their voices can be ignored because they don't have much following in the first place. Even the seats that BJP has won in T, it had to heavily depend on TRS for it. And TRS is a kongi puppet out and out. So, it is like depending on kongis. And that is not a good strategy.
I think Modi should immediately go to coastal and seema regions and talk of pro-unity. This is an opportunity that will not come twice. It is times like these when people are ready to switch loyalties and BJP can be a beneficiary.
And BJP has enough arsenal to target kongis on this case. Because the bill cannot be passed in assembly. Many people are against it and their opinions are not being taken into consideration. Even the Sri Krishna commission did not take a pro-separate stance. Kongis did not present the bill all this while and wait till the elections come. Kongis are trying to hide behind this issue to skirt the issue of development, governance and corruption. All the states that were formed till now were formed in a sub-region that did not have the capital. So, by all the above points BJP can target the kongis and take a pro-unity stance. It will immediately bring them close to many people in AP. Even those who never looked at BJP as an option will think about it because there are not many choices for pro-unity votebank.
It was MP seats from AP that gave an edge to Kongis and allowed the UPA to survive all this while. So, no wonder, kongis are playing all these tricks on AP to preserve their power. Without AP, kongis cannot come to power in their present situation. And kongis have a really good thing going in AP because they don't have to compete with BJP in AP. And CBN has failed to check the kongis. He has been successfuly entangled by the kongis using proxies like KCR, Chiru and Jagan apart from low level kongis. On the other hand, BJP cannot hope to get into power without capturing the southern states. And this is such an opportunity. BJP was trying to get into AP through pro-separate stance. Now, BJP gets a chance, a clear field without much competition to get pro-unity stance votes. At the minimum, that means many votes from coastal and seema regions. They may even get votes form T region for this stance. Also, a strong hindutva stance will earn them votes, particularly in T region and especially in old city of Hyd. Add development and Modi, you have a very good combo.
I hope BJP has the good sense to see this opportunity instead of trying to compete with so many in T region for the same voteshare.
Also, the onus is on pro-separate party to present the bill and get it passed. On the other hand, the pro-unity party can simply vote against it and it is status quo. So, the job of pro-unity party is easier than the other side. So, BJP does not have to give anything new. All it has to do is to promise to vote against it in parliament, if it is presented in parliament and speak against it in public forums. Even if BJP continues with pro-separate stance and promises to vote in favour of separate state in parliament if a bill is presented, it will not get any credit. The credit will go to kongis and TRS. And both of them will either merge or form an alliance. Even otherwise, KCR will dance to the tunes of Maino. TDP and BJP will look like losers even if they vote in favour of separate T if the bill is presented in first place. Of course, TDP will not be able to make its MLAs and MPs from coastal and seema regions to vote in favour of separate state. And same will be the case with Kongis. Because there is extra-ordinary public pressure on the MPs and MLAs from coastal and seema regions.
In short, BJP stands to gain nothing from separate T stance. It has already tried and failed. And the number of competitors has only increased from last elections. So, better to change the stance specially and justify it on the basis of change in leadership(Modi).
Goddess forbid, If a separate T goes through, then sooner than later there will be calls for separate Vidharbha and separate Saurashtra. And separate states in Rajasthan based on erstwhile Rajputhana kingdoms. And kongis will be expected to play very enthusiastic role in it specially in stoking separate Saurashtra(which is similar to T because it is an arid area). Saurashtra like T can also claim to be backward. Of course, it has been proven that T is no more backward than other regions of AP. So, separate T can hit BJP in some of its states and one can trust kongis to do it.
Now that BJP has lost n Karnataka, it needs to urgently gain in another southern state. I think AP is ripe for the situation. The ploy should be a combination of pro-unity stance, development and hindutva. Hindutva in T region to counter MIM. pro-unity stance for coastal and seema regions. And development and governance to take on the dismal rule of kongis and their allies. Such a combination will be very effective. By such a strategy BJP can rise in AP in next 10 years. On the other hand, if it sticks to its losing strategy, then it cannot blame people for not voting it in(whether assembly or parliament).