Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

[gakakkad]

we need to look @ geopolitics to predict terror attack. The paki army threatened pulling out of western border an we have an attack in a weeks time.

[ramana]

Some factors are ISI chief's visit to US.
Another is the US officials visit to India-Paksitan.

If the visit goes thru after the attack it assures the TSP that all is well for it legitimizes their attack.

[ramana]

Book Review:

Jerrold M. Post - The Mind of the Terrorist: The Psychology of Terrorism from the IRA to al-Qaeda
Published: 2007-12-10 | ISBN: 1403966117 | 320 pages |


In contrast to the widely held assumption that terrorists as crazed fanatics, Jerrold Post demonstrates they are psychologically "normal" and that "hatred has been bred in the bone". He reveals the powerful motivations that drive these ordinary people to such extraordinary evil by exploring the different types of terrorists, from national-separatists like the Irish Republican Army to social revolutionary terrorists like the Shining Path, as well as religious extremists like al-Qaeda and Aum Shinrikyo. In The Mind of the Terrorist, Post uses his expertise to explain how the terrorist mind works and how this information can help us to combat terrorism more effectively.

I think we have enough data to model the Ind Muj terrorist mind which is relevant to India.

[SSridhar]

we need to look @ geopolitics to predict terror attack. The paki army threatened pulling out of western border an we have an attack in a weeks time.

In the run up to and immediately beyond c. 2014, terror strikes against India will only increase. If Afghanistan descends into an internal strife as happened after c. 1989, the terror strikes will prolong until the Taliban gain an upper hand. There can be some lull during this period if the available jihadi resources have to marshalled into Afghanistan to fight some tactical battles against non-Taliban entities. Else, it is going to be one long, bloody mess.

One positive bit of information emanating from the latest Jalalabad incident was the precise terror information that GoI had. The kind of measures that have been proposed for the security of Indian staff etc indicates that GoI is prepared and determined to go the whole hog. We have, for many years now, displayed an impressive snooping ability deep within Pakistan and this ability will only grow, one hopes. Coupled with a greater monitoring of elements within India, without being bothered about offending anybody's sensibilities, this should nip many attacks in the bud.

I feel that Jalalabad is the first in a fresh series of attacks both within Afghanistan and India in the coming months.