Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[krishnan]

You just dunno how it will turn up for 2014.

[kmkraoind]

I cannot tell Mandya, but for Bangalore Rural the electoral campaign of Congress is intense with money flowing endlessly. Even door-to-door campaign by JDS is not surprising. Moreover, voters in the bye-elections elect the party that rules State (in this case Congress) so that they will not antagonize state machinery.

The silver lining of this election are:
1. JDS has two choices, either cooperate with NDA or fade away from KA electoral politics forever. Kumara Swamy may go for grand NDA coalition to defeat Congress. Once elections are over, depending upon NDA and JDS prospects, the game may be either Sickular or National Interests.
2. With these 2-seat victory, Siddu may try to morph into strong BC-minority leader, may up his ante like YSR. This may rouse flames of internal-democracy of Congress. Anyway, Congress is always wary of strong regional leaders.

Adder later: BJP should be cautious and it should not make the Bihar mistake, where they made their junior partner (JDU) bigger than themselves. Let keep JDS as their junior partner.

[vishvak]

Why has the govt not released population charts. Don't people including other political parties have a right to know and what is the meaning of not releasing reports district wise.

[gunjur]

Both JD(s) and KJP leader(s) are neither "heroes" nor "villains". They have their own plus and minus factors similar to every other "politician" found across the country. So brow beating them beyond a point is futile imo.

BJP with or without Yeddyurappa today is a divided house. Bjp cadre in karnataka are in a demoralised state. Bjp high command has played a big part in this. People of karnataka knew how much ananthkumar and yeddyurappa "loved" each other atleast from past 15 years. So again blaming only ananthkumar beyond a point for every bad thing to happen is futile. IMO dilli leaders are to be blamed more than anyone else.

Ok, now back to articulating/sloganeering "Down Down ananthkumar/yeddyurappa" .

[rohiths]

One should not read too much into the by-polls. It usually goes in favour of the ruling party especially one which has just been voted recently.

[Sushupti]

One should not read too much into the by-polls. It usually goes in favour of the ruling party especially one which has just been voted recently.

No body is reading too much into the results but the margins.

[sunnyP]

Sunny Deol will be the BJP candidate against Congress spokesperson and current MP of Ludhiana Manish Tiwari.

Saw this on twitter but has it actually been confirmed? Can't find any news reports on it.

Tiwari is one of the most arrogant, rude, obnoxious, and foul characters I've come across. Can't stand him when I see him in tv debates.

[Theo_Fidel]

Combined BJP+KJP+JDS has lost both the Lok Sabha by poll seats in Mandya and Bangalore Rural to Congress, 2014 looks bleak for BJP in Karnataka

Folks always vote tactically in India. This is why despite all the fragmentation usually the winning party is clear to everyone. Need to get the people on your side. India voter turnouts are large and people will vote for what they want. Alliances are useful, blasting the other party is useful, but you still have to tell folks what you plan to provide.

[ShyamSP]

One should not read too much into the by-polls. It usually goes in favour of the ruling party especially one which has just been voted recently.

In Bengalore rural there seems to have been some wheeling-and-dealing. Mandhya seems suspicious given Congress losing most of Assembly seats in the MP constituency a few months ago. Look like they are "EVM"izing Karnataka also.

Sonia's 100% sure looks to be 400% sure in the South.

[SaiK]

this d k suresh guy is pukka rowdy, goonda and re mafia. the kangrez is sure to come back to power.. people just love these kind of people. instead of chasing behind leaders, if we spend time and money to improve aam minds, the nation can get better.

[abhishek_sharma]

The slow march of Shivraj

[abhik]

It was probably a good thing that BJP stayed out and let the JD(S) getting whipped in its own bastion.

[chaanakya]

This is similar to JDU being defeated by RJD in Gopalganj bye-poll when JDU was falling out with JDU.

[Shanmukh]

It was probably a good thing that BJP stayed out and let the JD(S) getting whipped in its own bastion.

I would not be surprised if Yediyurappa tacitly supported the Congress (he was being wooed by D K Shivakumar) to defeat the JD(S). Yediyurappa's enmity with Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy is old and well known. If Yediyurappa supported the Congress, this might well be the result, with the Lingayats indulging in tactical voting to defeat the JD(S).

[abhik]

This is similar to JDU being defeated by RJD in Gopalganj bye-poll when JDU was falling out with JDU.

If you're talking about Maharajganj, then this is quite different I think. These two seats both held by the JDS, the sitting MPs(including Deve Gowda's son) resigned because they chose to enter the State assembly after winning the recent state elections. Losing in Mandya, that too with such a large margin is major debacle for them. They are now reduced to just 1 LS seat from 3. What is ominous for the BJP wrt 2014 is that it on its own got roughly the same vote share and seats as the JDS in the 2013. They have their work cut out for them.

[abhik]

It was probably a good thing that BJP stayed out and let the JD(S) getting whipped in its own bastion.

I would not be surprised if Yediyurappa tacitly supported the Congress (he was being wooed by D K Shivakumar) to defeat the JD(S). Yediyurappa's enmity with Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy is old and well known. If Yediyurappa supported the Congress, this might well be the result, with the Lingayats indulging in tactical voting to defeat the JD(S).

Hmm..But at the end of day he has no choice but to rejoin the BJP or be in the fringes. The Congis will not let another outsider take a slice of the booty, especially now that they don't absolutely need him.

[Shanmukh]

I would not be surprised if Yediyurappa tacitly supported the Congress (he was being wooed by D K Shivakumar) to defeat the JD(S). Yediyurappa's enmity with Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy is old and well known. If Yediyurappa supported the Congress, this might well be the result, with the Lingayats indulging in tactical voting to defeat the JD(S).

Hmm..But at the end of day he has no choice but to rejoin the BJP or be in the fringes. The Congis will not let another outsider take a slice of the booty, especially now that they don't absolutely need him.

What you say is true. But Anant Kumar and his group are rooting for an alliance with the JD(S) - they prefer Deve Gowda to Yediyurappa. They were trying to keep him out, in the hope that he will fade away. The problem for the BJP is that there is no real Lingayat leader now. But this is true not only for the BJP, but also for both the Congress and the JD(S). The Anant Kumar faction is probably hoping that if Yediyurappa fades away in a few years, another BJP leader (probably Jagadish Shettar) could evolve to take up the leadership of the Lingayats. The assumption is not baseless - the Lingayats have no (big) party that promotes their interests now. The BJP is their best bet, if Yediyurappa fades away. They are trying to achieve this goal. However, in the meantime, it is going to hurt the BJP interests big time. Yediyurappa may not be a winner anywhere, but he can be a real spoiler. I would prefer him back in the BJP rather than any tactical alliance with the KJP, though. Similarly, I prefer that Babulal Marandi join the BJP and lead it from within.

[Sachin]

In Bengalore rural there seems to have been some wheeling-and-dealing.

In a report on a local news paper it was mentioned that voter turn out in Bangalore Rural Dt, especially at Rajarajeshwari Nagar and Anekal Taluks were quite low. These are supposed to be BJP strong holds. A reason given was that though the leaders of JD(S) and BJP were all pally-pally the common party workers of both parties were left in a confused state. So many refrained from voting. Folks like Deve Gowda and Son are chameleons of the first order, so any man would be vary of them.

[Vikas]

Seriously, Is BJP is still dreaming about alliance with Gowda and his son after all the back stabbling and name calling.
I would rather vote for Sidhu and see BJP losing than to see this duo returning to Power in any form,shape or size.

[Sanku]

Seriously, Is BJP is still dreaming about alliance with Gowda and his son after all the back stabbling and name calling.
I would rather vote for Sidhu and see BJP losing than to see this duo returning to Power in any form,shape or size.

We still prefer a green flag over a less than perfect saffron?

No wonder the country is in such a mess.

[Singha]

Shourie says Modi is BJP's PM candidate, calls his rivals 'stateless' leaders

"What India wants is not divisive but decisive leadership and Modi has certainly demonstrated that," said BJP leader Arun Shourie.

[ashashi]

We still prefer a green flag over a less than perfect saffron?

Well said.

[ashashi]

Seriously, Is BJP is still dreaming about alliance with Gowda and his son after all the back stabbling and name calling.
I would rather vote for Sidhu and see BJP losing than to see this duo returning to Power in any form,shape or size.

Actually, it was BJP Delhi leadership conspired against Yeddy.

[devesh]

Seriously, Is BJP is still dreaming about alliance with Gowda and his son after all the back stabbling and name calling.
I would rather vote for Sidhu and see BJP losing than to see this duo returning to Power in any form,shape or size.

We still prefer a green flag over a less than perfect saffron?

No wonder the country is in such a mess.

JDS is no different than INC in that respect. they are just as green as INC or the "seculars".

[Sanku]

JDS is no different than INC in that respect. they are just as green as INC or the "seculars".

JDS, is not very secular in my understanding. Seculars can not have a grassroot stronghold in Mysore-Mandya region after all.

[Shanmukh]

JDS is no different than INC in that respect. they are just as green as INC or the "seculars".

JDS, is not very secular in my understanding. Seculars can not have a grassroot stronghold in Mysore-Mandya region after all.

They are secular, Sanku-ji, in the same way that Mulayam is secular ......

[Sanku]

They are secular, Sanku-ji, in the same way that Mulayam is secular ......

Nagesh ji, I am familiar with both the Mysore-Mandya region and UP, fairly closely. I do not think a Mulayam will survive in Mysore-Mandya region at all. The demographics are different, the land holding patterns are different, the history and culture is different.

A comparison with Mulayam can not be made. A case still can be made that they are secular by So Ka stds. However I do not see them pandering to the faith fools at all. The secular in their name is not very secular at all.

[Shanmukh]

They are secular, Sanku-ji, in the same way that Mulayam is secular ......

Nagesh ji, I am familiar with both the Mysore-Mandya region and UP, fairly closely. I do not think a Mulayam will survive in Mysore-Mandya region at all. The demographics are different, the land holding patterns are different, the history and culture is different.

A comparison with Mulayam can not be made. A case still can be made that they are secular by So Ka stds. However I do not see them pandering to the faith fools at all. The secular in their name is not very secular at all.

Erm - not sure how much of his chief ministership in Karnataka you remember, but in the mid 90s, he tried to start a Urdu news programme on Doordarshan - it led to riots in Bangalore and dozens of students of a local college, who were protesting against it in the Kalasipalyam-Mysore Road area were thrashed by the thugs of a couple of his cabinet and party bigwigs. He also was the guy who protected the rights of the minority to not allow the hoisting of the national flag in the Kittur Rani Chennamma grounds (also known as Idgah Maidan) in Hubli. Whenever he has had a chance to prove his `secular' credentials, he has done it.

[muraliravi]

Erm - not sure how much of his chief ministership in Karnataka you remember, but in the mid 90s, he tried to start a Urdu news programme on Doordarshan - it led to riots in Bangalore and dozens of students of a local college, who were protesting against it in the Kalasipalyam-Mysore Road area were thrashed by the thugs of a couple of his cabinet and party bigwigs. He also was the guy who protected the rights of the minority to not allow the hoisting of the national flag in the Kittur Rani Chennamma grounds (also known as Idgah Maidan) in Hubli. Whenever he has had a chance to prove his `secular' credentials, he has done it.

Well said, deve gowda is just another mulayam. His son is probably a different case and is not quite as bad, again I may be wrong.

[Shanmukh]

Erm - not sure how much of his chief ministership in Karnataka you remember, but in the mid 90s, he tried to start a Urdu news programme on Doordarshan - it led to riots in Bangalore and dozens of students of a local college, who were protesting against it in the Kalasipalyam-Mysore Road area were thrashed by the thugs of a couple of his cabinet and party bigwigs. He also was the guy who protected the rights of the minority to not allow the hoisting of the national flag in the Kittur Rani Chennamma grounds (also known as Idgah Maidan) in Hubli. Whenever he has had a chance to prove his `secular' credentials, he has done it.

Well said, deve gowda is just another mulayam. His son is probably a different case and is not quite as bad, again I may be wrong.

They are both just shamelessly casteist. They have packed the top leadership of every department under their ministeries with the Vokkaligas. No one else has even a chance. As for secularism, well - there have been no major Hindu Muslim flare ups in Karnataka since the early 2000s, and Kumaraswamy was dependent on the BJP for the continuation of his government. Not sure what he will do if he gets power with no BJP to hold him back ......

[Sanku]

They are both just shamelessly casteist.

Well I am not saying that they need to be highest paragon of virtue, but seriously, even JD(U) in Bihar and Naveen Patanaik are far more secular than these guys.

BJP will have to make alliances, and not all of them will pass the "secular" test by BRF standards, ideally, BJP should get an absolute majority on its own, and even Yeddi should ideally be replaceable by another Lingayat leader (castism anyone?) -- however what we are discussing are unfortunate choices in short term to move forward -- and the fact remains, Yeddi is not at the moment available, it remains to be seen if he is willing to come back and what is his pound of flesh.

Remember, Yeddi could have chosen to make sure BJP won, by simply participating in the polls and not pulling BJP down to make a point. The division could have been handled later. There is a reason why no one from Kkta BJP went with him finally isnt it.

Yeddi has spurned the BJP hand many times, he has acted defacto congress person on occasions. Yeddi not being available is as much Yeddi's fault.

[abhishek_sharma]

Faking News: Rahul Gandhi offered CEO position at Microsoft, declines

New Delhi (Rioters) – Rahul Gandhi has been offered the CEO job at Microsoft, revealed the chairman of the CEO search committee today.

Rahul was chosen above other candidates given his recent statement about India being a computer, and congress being the default program. That was considered enough of qualification and experience given his surname.

“Since Microsoft is a monopoly, Rahul would know exactly how to handle it given that Gandhis have monopolised Congress forever. Further, another characteristics that binds us is that Rahul and congress are also just as delusional as we are – thinking that everyone will always vote for them. We think everyone will always want Windows on their PCs,” said the chairman.

It is reported that Microsoft has offered a generous package designed specifically for Gandhi – a creche instead of office – complete with slides, kiddy pool, and a soft play area, Kalawati as secretary and Manish Tewari as chauffeur.

As per Gandhis’ current financial arrangements, salary will be remitted to a Swiss bank. Rahul will also be allowed to mumble incoherently during board meetings – a pre-requisite cited by the PMO.
However, Rahul has declined the offer. “It is his natural reaction, you see”, sources said. “He has been declining everything that is even remotely responsible – declining comes naturally to him.”
They added that before declining the offer Rahul did explore the usual possibility of delegating the job to Manmohan, but Manmohan declined the offer citing mortal fear of public speaking. “How would I speak on stage? Don’t you know my life is a silent movie? Pappu ji, hum se na ho payega.”

Update 1: Reports are coming in that Microsoft has swiftly moved on to their next best option. They are looking at Robert, who can diversify their business into real estate and solar parks and return the company to triple digit profits in no time. More on it later.

[abhik]

Erm - not sure how much of his chief ministership in Karnataka you remember, but in the mid 90s, he tried to start a Urdu news programme on Doordarshan - it led to riots in Bangalore and dozens of students of a local college, who were protesting against it in the Kalasipalyam-Mysore Road area were thrashed by the thugs of a couple of his cabinet and party bigwigs. He also was the guy who protected the rights of the minority to not allow the hoisting of the national flag in the Kittur Rani Chennamma grounds (also known as Idgah Maidan) in Hubli. Whenever he has had a chance to prove his `secular' credentials, he has done it.

True that. Deve Gowda's formula is same as Mulayam, Laloo etc which is MY= Muslim + Yadav(Except here it is Vokkaliga in stead Yadav).

[Sanku]

True that. Deve Gowda's formula is same as Mulayam, Laloo etc which is MY= Muslim + Yadav(Except here it is Vokkaliga in stead Yadav).

Are you saying that the demographics of UP is same as Kkta?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Karnataka

Muslims form approximately 12.22% of the population of Karnataka.[10] While Muslims can be found in all districts of Karanataka, Muslims have a stronger presence in:[11][12]
1. Northern Karnataka (especially in the area formerly ruled by the Princely State of Hyderabad) such as Gulbarga, Bidar, Bijapur, Raichur and Dharwad.
2. The districts bordering Kerala such as Dakshina Kannada and Kodagu where Muslim Mappila presence is strong.
3. The cities of Bangalore, Mysore and Mangalore.[12]

Of these as we see, the region of Mandya etc are the least

http://karnatakamuslims.com/portal/musl ... nalysis-1/

In 1961, there were only 19 districts in Karnataka, when Bidar was on top in terms of percentage of Muslim population which had 18.6 percent of Muslims, whereas Mandya was at the bottom of the table with 3.49 least percentage of Muslim population. It is worth mentioning that Bidar and Mandya maintained their status of large and least populated districts with Muslims from 1961 till 1991. Prior to the 2001 census, seven new districts were formed in Karnataka, as a result of which Dakshina Kannada (Mangalore) stood first in terms of Muslim population with 22.07 percent, whereas Mandya maintained its last place.

http://twocircles.net/2011may27/muslim_ ... embly.html

Muslims form the largest minority community in Uttar Pradesh where they constitute around 19% of the state population with 20 districts having the Muslim concentration above 20%. Uttar Pradesh also hosts 22% of India’s Muslim population, the largest Muslim population of all states and union territories.

Some of the cities where the population of muslims is is between 35-45% are Moradabad, Rampur, Muzaffarnagar, Bareilly.


=========================================================

Vokkaligas are 15 million of Kkta population, about 60 million. 25%.

The number of Yadav's OTOH is about 13% in Uttar Pradesh.

=========================================================

With the above demographics, especially in and around Mandya, where JD(S) is based, can some one tell me how Kkta == UP? And how JD(S) == SP?

JD(S) is a clear cut Vokkaliga party, where Vokkaligas are dominant % of population. OTOH SP is in equal measure a Muslim-Yadav party.


BTW this analysis is not done with any ulterior motives to show JD(S) >> Yeddi etc. I am merely trying to keep the record straight.

[Supratik]

Lingayats are 18-19%, Vokkaligas 16-17%. BJP should concentrate on getting Yeddi back.

[Sanku]

Lingayats are 18-19%, Vokkaligas 16-17%. BJP should concentrate on getting Yeddi back.

One of the things about Kkta is that Vokkaligas and Lingayats are concentrated in different areas, logically it should be possible to woo both.

[Shanmukh]

Lingayats are 18-19%, Vokkaligas 16-17%. BJP should concentrate on getting Yeddi back.

One of the things about Kkta is that Vokkaligas and Lingayats are concentrated in different areas, logically it should be possible to woo both.

Possible, but not very likely. Both want to be top dogs. Please one, you displease the other. Such is the logic .....

[Supratik]

Possible, but not very likely. Both want to be top dogs. Please one, you displease the other. Such is the logic .....

Thats correct. It is like Reddy vs Kamma in AP. Ideally, it should not be based on caste. However, the castes are polarized and the Vokkaligas have JD(S). So concentrate on Lingayats till Kt gets over casteism. Similar was the situation in Guj. KHAM was countered by Patels supporting BJP till majority of Gujratis were able to overcome caste and elect NM from one of the not so big BCs.

[Sanku]

Possible, but not very likely. Both want to be top dogs. Please one, you displease the other. Such is the logic .....

I know, but the conflict is rarely local, the conflict is only at state level, at local district level, there is little conflict, since the dispersion is contiguous for each.

This offers a possibility, and such possibilities must be made to work.

[Shanmukh]

Possible, but not very likely. Both want to be top dogs. Please one, you displease the other. Such is the logic .....

I know, but the conflict is rarely local, the conflict is only at state level, at local district level, there is little conflict, since the dispersion is contiguous for each.

This offers a possibility, and such possibilities must be made to work.

You need something that trumps local caste considerations, Sanku-ji. Not possible to woo both of them in the tactical sense of the word. But in 1991, a considerable portion of both castes voted wholeheartedly for the BJP. So - you need to find an issue greater than caste loyalties. The big men of both castes are not easily won over - they are too locked in into existing political networks (often by matrimonial and/or business alliances). This leaves only one way of getting their vote - bypass the existing big men, and go to the people. And to appeal to the people, you need an issue that resonates very strongly with them - strong enough to overcome caste affiliations. Hindutva was once able to do it, but the BJP betrayed the Hindutva agenda, and has no credibility now. Modi charisma is untested as yet - it may work, it may not. The development agenda is only resonating with the urban populations. Not sure how much it is resonating with the rural populations. So - I cannot see any issue that can unite the two groups at present.

However, if the BJP does manage to do it, the JD(S) will be wiped out, and the Congress will be crippled. BJP will be looking at something like 25 out of the 28 seats.