Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

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Vayutuvan
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

devesh wrote:NRI money is a delusion. most are salaried employees. they don't have the resources to compete with the local Indian money machine which runs into thousands of crores.
Granted they do not have the resources to compete with Bharat, but at the same time, they can easily afford $2K per head if long term bonds are raised specifically for, say, infra or school districts. Some here in US do invest in municipal bonds. Where are the bond funds in India? That kind of money can be raised without any problems even if the issue is limited to NRI (i.e. resident but not ordinarily resident)/PIO/OCI types only. This class of investor would be able to get better rates than what they can elsewhere. On the other hand, India does not have to offer very high interest rates as this class of investors have lower risk perception about India than some random investor/analyst/broker from random country who goes to some xyz rating agency and makes decisions. If the RE market is so hot in India and going to be hot for several decades, where are the REITs? Of course, these bonds have to be dollar denominated and either zero coupon or some such so that the tax treatment is better for oversees investors - especially the ones in US.

Heck, when the future looked bad after Shakti, India could raise $3 Billion (granted at higher rates than market) but today it is possible to raise much more only if there is a long term plan for infra, hospitals, and education.

My feeling (perhaps wishful thinking) is that a majority of the 50 million ex-patriots do still believe in India and the idea of India and they do have more disposable income than the upper middle class in India.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 29 Aug 2013 21:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by RamaY »

matrimc wrote: My feeling (perhaps wishful thinking) is that a majority of the 50 million ex-patriots do still believe in India and the idea of India and they do have more disposable income than the upper middle class in India.
+1. No wonder majority of expats are investing in getting a home in Bharat.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

^bond at what interest rate?

i am willing to put money where the mouth is.. jai nri quota! :twisted: please allocate legal land with zilch re mafia involvement.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by RamaY »

SaiK wrote:^bond at what interest rate?

i am willing to put money where the mouth is.. jai nri quota! :twisted: please allocate legal land with zilch re mafia involvement.
:) At US interest rates OR 0.5 basis points about it http://us.deposits.org/
Vayutuvan
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

SwamyG wrote:But past is no guarantee for the future is also another thing to keep in mind. Studying patterns in history & present and psychology has its place.
(OT but can't let go a chance to pull SwamyG's leg - we get so few of them)

Of course, we have to be selective when to study the past and when not to. It doesn't' have a place when our "man-pasand" US president is mulling to bomb the heck out of Syria. As somebody put it he is not the first President to wear "President GW Bush" mask - everyone all the way back Presidents Truman was wearing the same mask and it gets passed down to the next in line.

But we have no problem holding CM Modi to higher standards though.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 29 Aug 2013 21:59, edited 1 time in total.
SaiK
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

then it is the ravan in you speaking, not krishna! :wink:
ramana
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by ramana »

NRI money is not a delusion. Those who want fill find the resources as matrimc posted.

However at this time there is extreme reluctance to trust the GOI due to kleptocracy and extreme distaste for law and order being exhibited. The gist of the article was this key conclusion.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by disha »

ramana wrote:However at this time there is extreme reluctance to trust the GOI due to kleptocracy and extreme distaste for law and order being exhibited. The gist of the article was this key conclusion.
I will go a step further - "There is extreme distrust on GOI, its ability to govern, maintain law & order & build infrastructure".

The recent run on money reflects that. Economy is not only about goods and services and costs and profits., it is all about trust - trust in doing the right thing to "produce" the right stuff*.

In simple terms, GOI has lost trust of the markets and thus the market has lost trust on Indian Economy. And it is not just "internal" markets., but also NRIs - who do come to the aid of Indian economy (remember RIB anyone, oversubscribed?).
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by disha »

matrimc wrote:My feeling (perhaps wishful thinking) is that a majority of the 50 million ex-patriots do still believe in India and the idea of India and they do have more disposable income than the upper middle class in India.
Disposable income is not the problem - trust is the problem!

It is like in a marriage, you lose trust on your husband. What do you do after that?
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

i think the farm bill has loop holes for re mafias to play now. larger sums to expend would automatically mean, % share of mafia increases. actual values may be different, and that is where an re bill is needed. why focus on farmland alone, and especially to which gov buys from farmers? this is a big data corruption framework for the future setup.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Lilo »

ramana wrote:
niran wrote:Loh Purush has been promised Rashtrapati Bhavan and if all goes to plan for 2 terms
Gadkurry a plump Govnership somewhere pradesh as per the fly on wall
as per cockroaches under the rug, you know who, was heard screaming ordering a gentleman mostly seen in mundu
to do something or else being labled a kangrezi would be more tabooer than the taboo of "Nazi"
meanwhile INR crossed 68 and remained there this was supposedly the reason of the above screams
what this means is that between November 2013 and March 2014 GOI will have to pay back her debt of around 136 billion dollah,
if INR stays 60+ for another 2 months GOI will have to default just the way Argentina defaulted last century
that would be creamy curry subject to take to the electors(depending on who is serving the curry of course)

and no, tis not the time to emigrate-shemigrate, tis time to amour up chariot up and beat them adharmics back.

SG admonishing AKA or PC? Or both?
Methinks its Big bro Am bani giving a dhamki to his current Dukaan wala(Chi du) along with his whole khandan (khangress)
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SwamyG »

Sushupti wrote:With D4 again coming out in support of latest Land Acquisition bill of UPA, how many are still in favor of Susai belt hypothesis about LKA?
I am in favor, count me in. Where do I stand in the line to drink the kool-aid.

Meanwhile this article sounds very odd: http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/an ... 72604.html

It is like he said, she said type of journalism. They picked something from HuffPost? Which was written by somebody who heard Anna saying some thing in a select gathering? As per the reports, Anna would endorse Modi if he left BJP. If Modi left BJP, why should he be endorsed? Something wishy-washy-fishy-onlee.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Yagnasri »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK3JPQOR-Gg

pro INC Muslims are now alleging BJP-SP match fixing along with paid media. I think INC is now do not want hindu votes in favour of BJP.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SwamyG »

matrim garu:
Yes, I do pasand the current US President, but then I am critic of him too. While I did not pasand Bush, yet I was in favor of some his policies and actions.

Yes, I also like to set expectations and standards higher for Modi. Simple reason, we want our family to do well and we will point out the flaws of our family members so that they can rectify them and reach loftier goals, positions and existence. Pointing flaws of Modi or BJP should be considered from that angle. Tomorrow, if we discover an INC CM or politician on the mold of Modi, yet is part of INC, I am sure lot of people would hold him/her in high regard and wish him/her well for the sake of the country, no?

ps: Why saar to pull my leg, when my head rolls here freely onlee :-)
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

SwamyG wrote:Simple reason, we want our family to do well and we will point out the flaws of our family members so that they can rectify them and reach loftier goals, positions and existence.
gin saab, could you please share the success tricks here? badly needed.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

SwamyG wrote:matrim garu:
Yes, I also like to set expectations and standards higher for Modi. Simple reason, we want our family to do well and we will point out the flaws of our family members so that they can rectify them and reach loftier goals, positions and existence.
ps: Why saar to pull my leg, when my head rolls here freely onlee :-)
Exact thing came up when I was talking to one elder (dad's close friend) who was criticizing some trivial problem he faced in the US. I asked him "Uncle, where can you find better?". His answer was "when I see a girl getting 99 marks I tell her to work a little harder as she is so close to getting a 100."

But then 99%ile is different from 99%. Uncle ji is an old timer British raj system educated. How to explain onlee?
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Suraj »

A Resurgent India Bond v2 today to bridge the CAD is a dumb idea for multiple reasons:
* In 1998, NRI remittances were <$10 billion, of which RIB inflows were a significant component. Back then, the CAD was comparatively tiny, and a few billion easily bridged the gap.
* In 2012-13, NRI remittance were $71 billion - the most received by any country in the world from its diaspora. Net services trade surplus generates more invisible inflows - the total adding up to $100-120 billion. GoI *still* cannot manage BoP with that much of a surplus on the non-merchandise trade and inflow front ?

It is their lack of policy foresight that resulted in a CAD of $170 billion, even though invisibles including NRI remittance inflows generate a >$100 billion net inflows - over 5% of GDP - to compensate for a CAD. The solution is not to ask for more money to compensate for their incompetence - it's not even a cheap solution, much less a moral one, because they'll be compelled to offer a high coupon rate and tax benefits that adds to the deficit. The bond would have to be $20-30 billion, for which the coupon outflow of ~$2 billion (near 10% return) would be a massive fiscal liability.

In 1998 the situation was caused by GoI doing something the population largely supported, and the diaspora was willing to step up and pay in to support the government in response to the punitive actions of other nations. Today, GoI has no one to blame but itself - if it shows no willingness to suffer great pain and implement reforms, they are not going to convince many to support them.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by ramana »

Suraj, RBI's D. Subba Rao also said the same thing about the mess being created by GOI in his Nani Palkhivala lecture before he retires on Sept 4th.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

Suraj

Are you referring to RIB v2 which is being talked about?

I am not talking about RIB type bonds to be issued that also at a time of crisis when the trust in GoI is at the nadir. My response is to Devesh's contention that NRIs are a salaried lot. That is true, but a long term bonds of different maturity periods (so that people can do ladders bond portfolios) of $50-100 billion is certainly doable. That said I was very poor in my Accountancy (barely scraped through with a B+ where the highest grade was an Ex) and Econ (Macro and micro were taught by retired planning commission members - they were good but the problem was with me :(). There may not be any laws in place in India currently. But certainly the right government at the right time can push through such a policy? This would be a vehicle for NRIs (who are not going to R2I ever) to participate in the coming growth in India assuming that CM Modi wins and is able to replicate Gujarat model in the large.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by member_27444 »

Governments paying 10 percent on bond is something unheard of for a potential tiger economy
Expecting people to rush to by RIB with INR touching new height if glory sorry ill put my $ under pillow
In god we trust rest under pillow
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

all these billions is of no use.. nris are looked like aliens by many include folks out here in BR. they question the very posting rights in this thread, as to why do you guys care about modi or pappu in the sense, does your vote count?

it is high time, all OCI/PIO dual citizens ask for vote, if they can't do agriculture. a voice must be at the very least for those who are born in desh.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Rudradev »

Ok, this thread has too much about Modi already. For some balance, here is an article about the Dynasty. Specifically, about Rahul Gandhi.

I think this is a fine article: many interesting data points, and much fodder for analysis. Read in full and pay close attention to the details. We need to know more about this guy than just letting him hide behind a "Pappu" label.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/it-s-not-rahul ... 18544.html

It's Not Rahul vs. Modi, It's Rahul vs. The Congress
Bhavdeep Kang, 27 Aug 2013

Who is Rahul Gandhi? What does he stand for? Does he like boondi ke ladoos? And while we're at it, how is he planning to become India's next prime minister? Some questions currently puzzling the Congress party.

For a man who has been in the public eye since he was 14, for someone who officially entered full-time politics 9 years ago, for a 43-year-old who might well become India's next prime minister, Rahul Gandhi is bafflingly opaque. He is a sphinx not only to the public, but to his own party.

The Congress rank and file know Rahul primarily as the son, grandson and great grandson of party presidents and prime ministers. In the 1980s, they saw an awkward, bespectacled boy who appeared younger than his tall sister, a poor academic performer who nonetheless made it to the elite St Stephen's College on a sports quota for shooting. (He pulled off a bull's eye with an air gun at a school function in Amethi a couple of years ago.)

He then went abroad to study and work and reappeared in 2002, some three years after his mother's entry into politics. If he has achievements or successes to boast of during that time, nothing is known of them.

Congressmen are fuzzy about his academic record (international relations, philosophy and development studies) and career (management consultant-turned-entrepreneur, although his company, Backops Services Pvt Ltd, is now defunct), details of which have been gleaned by the press but not officially confirmed by the party.

Of his personal life, too, little is known. He has been spotted with a Venezuelan national and thereafter with a succession of Delhi socialites - among them, Jahnvi (sister of Shahjahanabad MP Jitin Prasada and daughter of his mother's erstwhile challenger, the late Jitendra Prasada) and an Afghan national.

After hours, he frequents nightclubs and fashionable eateries, the existence of which most Congress workers are unaware of. His intimates, his passions, his life apart from politics, even his general likes and dislikes, they are all mysteries. Which adds to the average Congressman's quandary: does one woo him with books, works of art, pieces of music or boondi ke ladoo?

It's one thing that Congressmen don't know about Rahul's religious beliefs, dietary preferences and feelings about marriage. But his party is just as hard put to explain Rahul's political and economic philosophy. Does he subscribe to neoliberalism or socialism or to a mixed economy? Nobody seems to be sure.

On specific issues, the picture is equally unclear. For instance, he popped up in Odisha in 2010 to defend the land rights of the Dongrias of Niyamgiri, but failed to speak up on similar diversions of forest land in Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh. He has also never articulated his positions on Schedule 5 of the Constitution or on the PESA Act, both of which protect forest land.

Congressmen outside his immediate circle find Rahul Gandhi mystifying and disappointing. One 'young' Congress MP, who ought to have been delighted with the generational shift within the party, says, "There's no connect between what he says and what he does. What does he stand for? How does he rate people? Where is he at this moment? BJP workers don't need to ask these questions of Narendra Modi. They already know."

Which seems a valid point. A BJP worker can provide chapter and verse on 'Narendrabhai' - his early years and 'marriage', the fact that he earned his master's degree despite having had to man a tea stall in his youth, his career as a pracharak, his performance as BJP general secretary in charge of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, his fondness for writing poetry, the books he's written, his interests in ecology and the environment, his religious commitment and vegetarianism, his proximity to Gujarat minister Anandiben Patel, his bonhomie with industrialist Gautam Adani, his stand on issues ranging from the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) to the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

And party workers know where Narendrabhai is on any given day. They can even tell you - in confidence, of course - about his struggle with the Vajpayee-Advani duo during the NDA years, his dislike of former BJP organising secretary Sanjay Joshi, and his fondness for good clothes, south Indian food and air-conditioned cars.

For Congress members, on the other hand, decoding 'RG' has become a matter of urgency with the general elections on the horizon next year.

How does one go about getting a party ticket in the new setup? Is the traditional method still the way to go - of cultivating powerful satraps or organisational bosses in Delhi and contributing to their private coffers? Or will the number crunchers at RG's 12, Tughlaq Lane residence-cum-office take the final call? Will sitting legislators be repeated? Will the caste factor be decisive or will it now be 'clean image' and 'winnability'?

His Obscure Ways


Traditional Congress politics - touchy-feely and based on a system of patronage, lobbying, networking, exchange of favours and sycophancy - is far removed from RG's rants about meritocracy, professionalism and egalitarianism. In January 2013, when RG was formally anointed crown prince by being elevated to Congress vice president at the All India Congress Committee (AICC) conclave, he monotoned to his eager audience how "our youth are alienated... excluded from the political class... our public systems... are designed to promote mediocrity... we [the Congress] do not focus on leadership development. All decisions are taken at the top without consulting the organisation. The Congress worker must be given due honour."

And at his now-famous CII speech in April 2013, he told the nation's industrialists, "Wherever we have not embraced the excluded we have fallen backwards."

The grand old party, long accustomed to a durbari culture, is struggling to come to terms with the new dispensation. With Rahul, there is no touching of feet or giving of autographs - instead, there are notes and presentations. But that is where the egalitarianism stops.

Take the business of securing appointments with the Congress No. 2, which is of vital importance to provincial leaders - not to discuss anything substantive but to impress votaries back home with their access to the powers that be.

A young worker from Aligarh wrestled with RG's office for a year, negotiating the complexities of voicemail and email in increasing frustration. "They say, state your reason for wanting to meet," he recalls. "In politics, where is the reason to meet? You simply meet. Express loyalty. Cite your grievance. If something comes up in the talk, bonus. If not, he will at least remember your face."


Congress president Sonia Gandhi is also not easily accessible, but she is positively gregarious compared with her son and heir. RG is highly selective about the people he meets and, to the frustration of Congressmen, his screening process is a complete mystery. Party MPs have not been given appointments while low-level party workers have met him repeatedly. Some of those to whom he :cry: grants an audience never get another one. Others find their allocated five minutes stretching to 15.


When one MP-aspirant from Haryana decided to seek an audience with RG, his first thought was to approach the young Deepender Hooda, regarded as one of the Congress VP's intimates. Before he could do so, a party colleague told the aspirant he would be better off putting in an email giving a credible reason for the meeting.

With a tech-savvy friend, he drafted a request to discuss the plight and political preferences of a specific migrant community in the state. For good measure, he put in a call to one Ramakrishna (said to be a Special Protection Group retiree) at 12, Tughlaq Lane and PP Madhavan (part of the Malayali troika of gatekeepers) at 10, Janpath.

A month later, he got a call summoning him to an audience at 10, Janpath. He was not kept waiting too long - a mere 25 minutes. RG was casually friendly. He had a hard copy of the note and proceeded to question him in Hindi on the politics of the state, the district and the community.


He appeared quite knowledgeable but, like most upper crust Indians reared in the modern secular-liberal world, could not grasp how politics plays out at the grassroots level. No refreshments were served. "It was like giving a job interview," recalls the mid-level party worker about meeting RG. "Questions on top of questions before I had finished giving the [previous] answer."

After 15 minutes of Q&A, the aspiring Congressman was told he ought to stay in touch with RG's political aide and general secretary Kanishka Singh. There has been no follow-up.

Another anecdote from Rasheed Kidwai's Sonia: A Biography illuminates how RG's style of functioning is alien to his party. Veteran UP politician Siraj Mehdi once invited RG to a function of the UP Women's Cricket Association, and informed the Lucknow media that the young leader would attend without waiting for an official acceptance. When RG's office demanded an explanation for this solecism, Mehdi denied having made any such claim and asked who had complained. He was told the information came from Google. For days thereafter, Mehdi went around looking for 'Google', the snitch in the state Congress
.
:rotfl:

A Revolving Team

Rahul's impatience with circumlocution and sycophancy is well known. He also dislikes being treated as a dispenser of patronage or wisdom and, most of all, as an arbiter in factional feuds. He's good at absorbing information and is briefed on each person he meets beforehand.

Having said that, there aren't enough touch points between him and the party. Unlike Sonia, who quickly shed her shyness and opened her doors to politicians of all hues, RG doesn't see mingling and pressing flesh as part of his job description.

Bypassing the recognized hierarchies in the party, RG has built his own team. Party workers and leaders alike have yet to figure out why relative unknowns like Madhusudan Mistry and Mohan Prakash have been promoted to general secretaries and given charge of the two most important states: Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Both are regarded as outsiders. Mistry was an acolyte of former BJP leader Shankar Singh Vaghela, while Prakash is from the Janata Dal.

Until recently, Minister of State for Youth Affairs and Sports and the Minster of State for Defence, Bhanwar Jitendra Singh, who joined the Congress after a long stint in the BJP, was regarded as RG's closest confidante - more a friend than a political associate. In a party where the top spot is reserved for family, being the chief sidekick is as good as it gets. But RG's favourites, like those of his father before him, tend to be short-lived and the word in party circles is that Bhanwar no longer has the prince's ear.
RG's acolytes tend to fall into two categories. There are the US-educated MBAs or techies who man Tughlaq Lane, where management-speak is the lingua franca: gathering an "early harvest", aiming for the "low-hanging fruit", working within "time horizons".

Kanishka Singh, son of a diplomat, and Sachin Rao, a software analyst, fall into this category. Singh is the gatekeeper, an upscale version of Sonia Gandhi's Vincent George. "Alag biradri hai," a Congress office-bearer observes. "Yeh to kagazi sher hain. Aam aadmi se koi lena dena nahin hai (They are a different breed. Paper tigers. Nothing to do with the common man)."


The Tughlaq Lane staff work in tandem with the 'war room' at Gurudwara Rakab Ganj road, where an in-house survey and psephology team generate data round the clock. It is here that the much-reviled but admirably detailed self-assessment forms for Congress legislators and mid-level Congress office-bearers are drawn up. (Sample question: How many votes did you poll at the booth where you cast your own?)

Then there is the grassroots-jholawalla brigade. RG's fascination with rusticity is well known. Mandsaur MP Meenakshi Natarajan is believed to have floored RG with her sellotaped spectacles and rumpled kurtas. Beni Prasad Verma, despite a series of political gaffes, survives partly because RG finds him a fount of earthy wisdom. Likewise, CP Joshi's blunt and idiomatic take on Rajasthan politics has served him well.

The late Nand Kumar Patel, Congress chief of Chhattisgarh, was a hot favourite and was held up as an example by RG to other state chiefs. Patel was a grassroots politician who engaged directly with his constituents, holding endless party meetings across the state. Like Beni, he brought in a whiff of the village.

Naturally, meeting Kanishka Singh or Madhusudan Mistry is an objective for all Congressmen. An AICC secretary proudly displayed his email exchanges with Singh on his phone. "He [Singh] has never failed to reply to my messages, even if late," he declares. Not that Singh and Mistry are accessible to all. If they deign to give you time or reply to your messages, you are clearly someone of significance.

To complicate matters further for the rank-and-file, Team Rahul operates on a revolving door principle. No one can claim a permanent spot. The importance of Jairam Ramesh has declined dramatically. Natarajan no longer enjoys her previous clout. And Digvijay Singh's proximity could not prevent him from being supplanted by Mistry as general secretary in charge of UP.

Party workers who spent months cultivating a particular leader may find him to be suddenly out in the cold.

The Flip-Flopper

Increasingly, RG's style of functioning invites comparison with his late uncle, Sanjay Gandhi. Like him, RG has subsumed the powers of the Congress president, brought in young and educated people, commands the loyalty of his buddies (not necessarily the other way around), professes to want change, is impatient with bureaucracies and is a man of few words but a strong sense of destiny.

And like Sanjay, Rahul seeks to radically remake the party and existing public systems, especially the 'defunct' educational system.

Unlike his uncle, though, RG seems philosophically a democrat despite his opaque and apparently capricious style of functioning. A Congress general secretary credits him with trying to institutionalise democratic processes. "Selection of candidates is based on eight different sources," he says, "including our own surveys, reports of block presidents, Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chiefs, Congress Legislative Party (CLP) leaders and central observers." He points to the election of Siddaramaiah as Karnataka chief minister: "He was the choice of the MLAs."

On the other hand, Vijay Bahuguna was selected rather than elected as Uttarakhand CM at the expense of the 'MLAs' choice' Harish Rawat - reportedly at RG's behest.

RG speaks disparagingly of dynasty-driven politics but is most comfortable with the sons and daughters of established politicians - be it his constant companion Deepender Hooda or Jitin Prasada, Sachin Pilot, Sandeep Dikshit, Milind Deora, Omar Abdullah or RPN Singh. In Bhopal, he promised party workers he would break the hold of the regional satraps. Three months later, they are as strong as ever.

He dines at a Dalit household in an obscure village but surrounds himself with thakurs and Brahmins. He talks of empowering party workers, but arbitrary appointments and lack of access leave them feeling more excluded than ever. He places tremendous emphasis on social media but is not on Twitter himself. He is in favour of economic reforms and welfarism but does not believe the western model of capitalism works. So what does he believe in? No one seems to know.

Rasheed Kidwai, also the author of 24, Akbar Road, a close look at the Congress organisation since Independence, is one of the few journalists to have interacted with RG. Kidwai thinks RG has ambitions but not the will to fulfil them. "He [RG] wants change without working to change anything," he says.

Is RG a political dilettante, a deluded messiah or simply a work in progress? That depends on whom you ask. Author Ramachandra Guha described him as a "well-intentioned dilettante" who suffers from "not having done any job at all".

A Union minister commends his understanding of what ails India, but feels he suffers from a messianic complex: "He wants to be an extraordinary PM. Perhaps he's read too many political biographies." Yet another Union minister dismissed RG as "foolish, no idea of policy, just fashionable statements", and cites his CII speech this year which lacked any policy focus and meandered randomly from China to India's cultural exports to his first-hand experience of a slow train from Gorakhpur to Mumbai.

A constant criticism has been RG's penchant for taking up causes for a day. A member of Team Rahul defends his boss, saying, "It is for others to follow up." Once a leader has indicated a broad direction, goes this line of thought, his people should rally support for the cause. If they don't, they are failing in their political function. But at the ground level, this often translates into confusion over whether to take up a cause or not.

RG's tendency to keep a low profile precisely when he shouldn't - the Uttarakhand floods, for instance - also doesn't go down well with party workers, who are big on grand gestures. Like Modi's gesture of sweeping into Uttarakhand to rescue his Gujarati brethren. The social media had a field day mocking RG's complete absence. On Twitter, #WhereIsPappu trended for almost three days.

By now, Rahul's flash disappearances have become a byword. He was invisible during the protests over the Delhi gang rape last December - a lost opportunity to connect with agitated youth. After the Congress' UP assembly election debacle that he managed, RG vanished from Parliament and failed to attend official functions.

Earlier, he had gone missing during the Anna Hazare agitation for the Jan Lokpal Bill. Union minister Salman Khurshid and East Delhi MP Sandeep Dikshit were key negotiators, while RG surfaced only briefly in Parliament to propose a constitutional amendment to address Hazare's concerns - a rather long-term solution to an immediate problem.

The Shiv Sena-owned Marathi newspaper, Saamna, famously published a 'missing person' advertisement on RG in August 2011. It taunted him for not having backed farmers' protests against land acquisition in Maharashtra, after having done so in Bhatta Parsaul in UP. RG promptly landed up in Pune to meet the farmers, but by then the ad had already become a talking point everywhere.

Rising Hope, Falling Hope


The fact that Congress leaders can't air these grievances on the record shows that, at the end of the day, nothing has changed. The pyramid of patronage, with mother and son at the pinnacle, remains intact.
Had RG been able to boast of dramatic electoral successes, his lack of clarity, consistency and transparency would have been overlooked. But so far, he has not shown himself to be a vote-catcher or even an electoral strategist.

The 2012 assembly election in UP was fronted by RG, who held over 200 rallies across the state. The Congress crashed at number four in UP with a mere 28 assembly seats out of 403. RG's focus on lower caste Muslims, non-Jatavs Dalits and backward castes did not pay off. Nor did his poor governance-zero development diatribes against Mayawati. Voters disenchanted with the BSP opted for fresh-faced aspirant Akhilesh Yadav against RG, who was clearly in UP just to campaign and not to stay and govern.

A senior Congress leader feels that Sonia and Rahul represent a conflict of perspectives, temperaments and generations. She still acts as a shock absorber for him, insulating him from the strife and squabbles within the UPA.

However, it is also notable that decision-making in the Congress increasingly rests now with RG. Whether it is FDI or Telangana, Rahul must be convinced in order to convince Sonia. Before PM Manmohan Singh addressed the CLP, the AICC, the Cabinet or the Congress president Sonia Gandhi on FDI in multi-brand retail, he met and convinced vice president Rahul Gandhi of its vital importance and how, without it, the Indian economy would be looking at 1991 redux.

Similarly, the pro-Telangana faction within the Andhra Pradesh Congress made it a point to bring RG on board. Manmohan Singh also discussed cash transfers of subsidies with RG before making it official.

Congress MPs and officials leave party meetings these days with the impression that Team Rahul is satisfied with itself and not overly concerned with RG's failures or weaknesses. The attitude seems to be: If the party tanks in 2014, there's always 2019. As for the Congress rank-and-file, it will do what that comes naturally to them - clamour for another Nehru-Gandhi.


That Rahul Gandhi is in charge is now established wisdom. Sonia Gandhi invariably tells party leaders who seek her to hold discussions with him. But Congress workers would have preferred his charismatic sister, who might well have given Narendra Modi a run for his money. With the economy sinking relentlessly and prices rising inexorably, they were hoping for a heavy dose of populism to mitigate the effects of food inflation and rampant corruption.

The Congress' three-pronged strategy of populism, regionalism and communalism - the Food Security Bill, the Telangana resolution and attacking Modi on the 2002 riots - has had little visible impact so far. Congress officials are not hopeful about realistically coming back to power next year - not with Rahul Gandhi leading them.

But in politics, hope floats. Perhaps the generous monsoon this year will boost the flagging economy's growth rate. Perhaps the ever-unpredictable Indian voter will give the grand old party another chance. Perhaps Modi will self-destruct. Or perhaps RG will come through.
Last edited by Rudradev on 30 Aug 2013 03:08, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by disha »

Suraj wrote:A Resurgent India Bond v2 today to bridge the CAD is a dumb idea for multiple reasons:
* In 1998, NRI remittances were <$10 billion, of which RIB inflows were a significant component. Back then, the CAD was comparatively tiny, and a few billion easily bridged the gap.
* In 2012-13, NRI remittance were $71 billion - the most received by any country in the world from its diaspora. Net services trade surplus generates more invisible inflows - the total adding up to $100-120 billion. GoI *still* cannot manage BoP with that much of a surplus on the non-merchandise trade and inflow front ?

It is their lack of policy foresight that resulted in a CAD of $170 billion, even though invisibles including NRI remittance inflows generate a >$100 billion net inflows - over 5% of GDP - to compensate for a CAD. The solution is not to ask for more money to compensate for their incompetence - it's not even a cheap solution, much less a moral one, because they'll be compelled to offer a high coupon rate and tax benefits that adds to the deficit. The bond would have to be $20-30 billion, for which the coupon outflow of ~$2 billion (near 10% return) would be a massive fiscal liability.

In 1998 the situation was caused by GoI doing something the population largely supported, and the diaspora was willing to step up and pay in to support the government in response to the punitive actions of other nations. Today, GoI has no one to blame but itself - if it shows no willingness to suffer great pain and implement reforms, they are not going to convince many to support them.
Looks like we are on different sides of the same coin:

1. Some dumb journo talked about NRI patriotism., point was it is still there - it has not vanished - what has vanished is the trust. The reason journo is dumb is that there was a $71B inflow into Indian economy in 2011 the highest., which was ignored by the journo.

2. Even if GOI goes in for RIB now (calculations aside) it may *fail*., because of lack of trust.

3. And my point is even if GOI goes for RIB, unless the receipts is targetted for infrastructure creation in particular, it is useless. And given lack of trust, it should not go for RIB (back to point #2).
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Rudradev »

What is fascinating about the above article is the huge variety of Congress people, from young grassroots workers to senior Union ministers, who have given candid and unflattering opinions about Rahul Gandhi to the journalist (off the record of course, but it's still remarkable that there are so many and such hugely diverse sources of criticism.)

Everybody talks about Modi being an Autocrat; however, Rahul Gandhi seems to be not merely an Autocrat, but an Autocratic Tourist. He is capricious and changes his "loyal friends" like underwear. He is completely arbitrary about his decision-making, and the frustration with his unpredictable style of leadership seems to extend throughout the rank and file of the party. I use the term "tourist" because the above article makes it clear that Rahul has no sense of India at all... look at the choice of people he has in his inner coterie. They are either Yem Bee Yay phoren-returned types, who appeal to his sense of Westernized Efficiency, or else muhaavra-spouting "scent of the village" characters who play the same role in Rahul's court as snake-charmers, fakirs etc. do in areas frequented by firang visitors on holiday.

The question that came to my mind after reading the above article is: what makes the Congress rank and file, especially the young grassroots workers who keep the machine going in so many states, retain any faith in a Congress that is run by this guy? I can understand older-generation bandicoots who are too ingrained with habitual veneration of the dynasty to ever question it, but what about these young guys who probably don't remember Indira Gandhi, or perhaps even Rajiv Gandhi very well? What keeps them with the Congress, despite the huge frustration they are feeling? Is it simply the obvious fact that the Congress has vast funds accumulated from many years of colossal scamming? Like for example, people keep working for Reliance because they know that, however sucky the boss is, at least the paycheck will come every two weeks?

Honestly, if BJP has "no presence at all" in so many states and districts of India (something we've seen many analysts say, and reflected in the sentiments of many posters here)... isn't the obvious answer to poach the rank-and-file Congress workers in those states and districts? For the BJP to build its own machine from scratch in say AP, TN or WB would be a long-term, resource-intensive undertaking. Might it not be more advisable for Narendra Modi to actively recruit and bring in the components of an already functioning Congress machine in those areas? What are the difficulties of such an approach... can it be that, despite their growing disaffection with Rahul, their growing frustration with the Indian economy etc. they STILL consider Modi as untouchable because he offends their "secular" sensibilities?
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by RamaY »

Suraj wrote:A Resurgent India Bond v2 today to bridge the CAD is a dumb idea for multiple reasons:
* In 1998, NRI remittances were <$10 billion, of which RIB inflows were a significant component. Back then, the CAD was comparatively tiny, and a few billion easily bridged the gap.
* In 2012-13, NRI remittance were $71 billion - the most received by any country in the world from its diaspora. Net services trade surplus generates more invisible inflows - the total adding up to $100-120 billion. GoI *still* cannot manage BoP with that much of a surplus on the non-merchandise trade and inflow front ?

It is their lack of policy foresight that resulted in a CAD of $170 billion, even though invisibles including NRI remittance inflows generate a >$100 billion net inflows - over 5% of GDP - to compensate for a CAD. The solution is not to ask for more money to compensate for their incompetence - it's not even a cheap solution, much less a moral one, because they'll be compelled to offer a high coupon rate and tax benefits that adds to the deficit. The bond would have to be $20-30 billion, for which the coupon outflow of ~$2 billion (near 10% return) would be a massive fiscal liability.

In 1998 the situation was caused by GoI doing something the population largely supported, and the diaspora was willing to step up and pay in to support the government in response to the punitive actions of other nations. Today, GoI has no one to blame but itself - if it shows no willingness to suffer great pain and implement reforms, they are not going to convince many to support them.
1. Who is GoI and who is failing to manage BoP and whose lack of foresight that resulted in a CAD of $170b?

2. On what basis a coupon outflow of $2b is calculated, especially when done in USD? Why it should be so high if the FX risk is born by GoI or is it assumed that FX risk would continue to be 8+%

3. How can anyone control the slide of INR while opening near open conversion of INR with USD without taking the mismatching inflation rates and bank interest rates on either side? How could INR stabilize when one can earn 8+% int in India compared to 1% int rate in USA and has the freedom of currency conversion?
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by RamaY »

Rudradev ji,

My humble answer. Congress is the system of dacoits, who seek to (unfairly) benefit from the system. Congress creates and sustains the system that allows dacoits to loot and go scotfree.

The Indian system in its current form generates immense revenues and contains loopholes for people to get away from loot. It is important to note that this system was designed by colonizers and is meant to generate resources that can be looted away. If you add both central and state revenues, you are looking at nearly 20 Lakh crores per year.

Congress keeps this system as is so the loot can continue. Naturally all the people who want to loot public money without accountability join congress. Yes there are exceptions who want to use at least some of this money for public use.

If anyone conducts an audit of real value added to the nation in any given year, it will not be more than 2L crore or 10% of tax revenues. 90% goes into the pockets of congress system, including the govt employees, some of who really work for public welfare.

To break the congress system a non-congress govt should be able to survive at least 10 years along with few constitutional reforms. So far this did not happen since independence. There in lies congress-system's strength.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

Rudradev wrote:... isn't the obvious answer to poach the rank-and-file Congress workers in those states and districts? For the BJP to build its own machine from scratch in say AP, TN or WB would be a long-term, resource-intensive undertaking. Might it not be more advisable for Narendra Modi to actively recruit and bring in the components of an already functioning Congress machine in those areas? What are the difficulties of such an approach... can it be that, despite their growing disaffection with Rahul, their growing frustration with the Indian economy etc. they STILL consider Modi as untouchable because he offends their "secular" sensibilities?
Congress seems to have done exactly that (going by the article - at least I counted three - two from BJP and one from Janata Dal in the inner coterie of RG).

The real problem is that at the grass roots level, unless the party is perceived to be a winner, people are not going to change sides. usually they are entrenched into either Congress or TDP or BJP. Caste (at least in AP politics all the way down from panchayats upto the state and MP constituencies) plays an important role. Brahmins used to be the main stay of congress in most of AP as congress high command was dominated a couple of decades back by brahmins and they were perceived to be progressive and are reformist. But now it is all caste based and money dominated as far as I know. Whichever party has the coffers can win votes. Most of the money does not even go into vote buying. It goes into organizing rallies, arranging for transportation, registering voters, agents at the polling booths, money as deposit to challenge voter identity, etc. Most of the workers would want chay paani and a davat if the candidate wins and a pat on the back. Language is also a problem as BJP is viewed as N. Indian party and they would face a communication barrier unless they are able to communicate with the aam janata in Telugu. In large swaths of AP (even in Telangana region) hindi/urdu is not widespread though they would understand a few words here and there.

Middle class sensibilities (or even upper middle class from the villager perspective) of the city log are not appreciated in the villages.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 30 Aug 2013 09:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by devesh »

Just to make it clear, when I said "delusion" I meant NRIs did not have enough resources to directly take part in elections at the grassroots level. In one single state of andhra, in 2009, the reported expenditure by all parties involved for campaigning activities including buying/selling tickets ran close to 30k crore. Anybody who says average NRI abduls have the cash to fund that without any local indian sources of income flow is selling snake oil. What matrimc is saying is a completely different thing. And yes many such initiatives are currently ongoing. But they are strictly private projects with no govt involvement.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Suraj »

matrimc: What purpose would a long term bond of $50-100B serve ? By long term, I assume you mean 5-10 years. With a higher coupon rate for longer terms, say 10%, GoI would have an annual outgo of $5-10 billion per bond. They're unlikely to be able to arrange to pay the annual coupon rate in Rupees because that would place the exchange rate risk upon the bondholders, who will demand an even higher coupon to do so, if at all, based on GoI's record so far. Therefore GoI will have to manage the exchange rate risk and pay out in dollars.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

devesh ji, NRIs (if they are citizens of some other country) cannot and should not take part in the elections. Call me an idealist - that is fine.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

Suraj,

1. 10% is too high. Lots of people would be satisfied with 5-7% (or even lower). Time frame of US/European/Japanese rates rising to those levels is longer than 10 years.

2. There is no need to raise the $100 Billion at one go (is the technical term tranche?)
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

matrimc wrote:devesh ji, NRIs (if they are citizens of some other country) cannot and should not take part in the elections. Call me an idealist - that is fine.
you are.. but you are talking from disassociation point of view. i agree with your PoV if you are an ABCD. But if have a birth certificate from desh, then i am surprised at your idealism.

you can't go on the argument why did you shed the citizenship. that is not the argument should lead this too... instead, how can we accommodate those were already indian citizens by birth for elections.

dual citizenship can vote, e.g. usa/canada.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Suraj »

matrimc wrote:Suraj,

1. 10% is too high. Lots of people would be satisfied with 5-7% (or even lower). Time frame of US/European/Japanese rates rising to those levels is longer than 10 years.

2. There is no need to raise the $100 Billion at one go (is the technical term tranche?)
Why is it too high ? Have you seen current NRE FD rates ? They run 8.5-9.25% for 5 years for larger deposit amounts.
http://www.icicibank.com/interest-rates.html
10% for a 5-10 year note is not too high, even slightly lower is still several billions for your hypothetical $50-100 billion bond.

More to the point, my argument is why is such a bond necessary ? They already get $71 billion in remittance inflows, for which they owe no such coupon; depending on which kind of Rupee account it is saved in, they are paid for in Rupees too. While there's a foreign debt component, that only applies to NRE accounts, NRO is non-repatriable and therefore doesn't add to external debt. This proposed bond offering would add to external debt.

Encouraging remittances and investment inflows is a better deal than bond offerings; the latter suggests desperation, which any bond buyer would use to demand a bigger coupon.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Vayutuvan »

SaiK, that is all fine. As the current rules stand, a foreigner cannot influence/participate in Indian elections. No problem with OFBJP or some other organization who are spreading the word. In that sense what BRF members of foreign citizenship is doing is covered under free speech. Beyond that, if you are asking me to participate in any act that is against the law of the land, then I have to say sorry sir jee, count me out. I, for one, unhesitatingly would lend my voice - feeble as it is - to every cause that takes freedom of expression forward. For example I would not hesitate to protest non-violently against those who want to prevent CM Modi from getting a visa to US/UK or anywhere else.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Katare »

Suraj, those rates are for dollar converted in to rupee accounts. If you keep the dollars a d want interest paid in dollars interest rates range <5%. For govt it wont be a big issue to raise 20billin in international markets at liber +100 bp. Long term interest rate in us are still pretty low.

But we dont need any of that, what we needed was an end to 10 years of over valued rupee. This over valuation was the problem in 1991 and it was solved by devaluing the rupee. The devaluation is the over due correction for CAD. in few months we'll see imports slowing and domestic products becoming more competitive. As you know very well, in long term it always balances out. It has happened for 60 years and will continue until we get our acts togather and finish the reform process that was started fin RG's time.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SwamyG »

matrimc wrote:
SwamyG wrote:matrim garu:
Yes, I also like to set expectations and standards higher for Modi. Simple reason, we want our family to do well and we will point out the flaws of our family members so that they can rectify them and reach loftier goals, positions and existence.
ps: Why saar to pull my leg, when my head rolls here freely onlee :-)
Exact thing came up when I was talking to one elder (dad's close friend) who was criticizing some trivial problem he faced in the US. I asked him "Uncle, where can you find better?". His answer was "when I see a girl getting 99 marks I tell her to work a little harder as she is so close to getting a 100."

But then 99%ile is different from 99%. Uncle ji is an old timer British raj system educated. How to explain onlee?
matrimc garu, you are sharp enough to understand such panchantra type of illustration that we present here always will have the 'other side of the story'. While my example strives to push the expectations up higher, your example seeks to make a human content with whatever he has now. I believe in balance and nuanced push.

While Modi is far better than anyone from INC, I do not know where he is w.r.t to 100, is he at 99, 78, 65 or 35 - that I do not know. You know the general trend of this dhaaga on Modi or BJP :mrgreen:
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SwamyG »

Sorry for a little OT on OCI: http://www.firstpost.com/world/why-the- ... 08926.html.

Saik: And, I am with MatrimC on the voting one, but it is not idealism.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SaiK »

i am comparing any NRI with sonia ji.. except a reverse migration that happened. now, we all know that desh would not see such migration pattern, if economy drives none to leave the country. i am sure, majority or exceeding 90% would be in desh rather being a diaspora. after all this hard migration, nris onlee get this dual citizenship migraines.

swamy ji, you can pour water into horse's mouth, but horse has to drink it nah? i meant, that much onlee you can push or have expectations..
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by SwamyG »

You leave the country and acquire different citizenship - pledging allegiance to another country? Like matrimC said, using freedom of expression is fine. And one might be really a well wisher of India, but not able to vote is the price one has to pay for severing allegiance to India. Cannot have the cake and eat it too.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Post by Muppalla »

Katare wrote:Suraj, those rates are for dollar converted in to rupee accounts. If you keep the dollars a d want interest paid in dollars interest rates range <5%. For govt it wont be a big issue to raise 20billin in international markets at liber +100 bp. Long term interest rate in us are still pretty low.

But we dont need any of that, what we needed was an end to 10 years of over valued rupee. This over valuation was the problem in 1991 and it was solved by devaluing the rupee. The devaluation is the over due correction for CAD. in few months we'll see imports slowing and domestic products becoming more competitive. As you know very well, in long term it always balances out. It has happened for 60 years and will continue until we get our acts togather and finish the reform process that was started fin RG's time.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

need more CNN-IBN folks to send a lot of surveys to you get INC about 400+ like they got for RG.
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