West Asia News and Discussions

[Johann]

Philip,

An air campaign to topple the Assads or severely cut them down would have to be *much* larger and more complex than Libya.

It would be on the order of the air campaign over Iraq and Kosovo given the size of the SEAD task required, and the size of government combat forces.

NATO members force postures are not at all hard to track - even before the parliamentary vote, they simply did not have the forces in place to start or sustain such a campaign.

That is why the evidence suggests Obama's response would be on the lines of Clinton's cruise missile attacks on Iraq in 1993 and 1998, or Sudan and jihadi camps in Paktia in 1998.

Such largely symbolic attacks have nothing to do with strategic aims, but rather the need for American presidents to look strong to their own voting public and to their political system. It is the stupidest kind of gunboat diplomacy possible because their ineffectiveness makes the US look weak to most of its actual and potential adversaries, undermining deterrence and escalating conflict.

[eklavya]

^^^ The fear of antagonizing Russia held sway over Brutish MPs finally?

Not really, or in fact, not at all. No one in the British government, parliament or public cares a fig for Russia, with the important exception of Ms. Maria Sharapova (some values are truly universal).

The British parliament voted against intervention despite knowing the damage it would cause to the relationship with the US. In diplomatic and military terms, that is just about the only relationship the British government cares about. The fact that the French will be fighting alongside the Americans, is the stuff of nightmares in Whitehall. Everything else is just business. Remember ... nation of shopkeepers.

Why did they do it? In one word, Iraq.

Parliament knows full well that one punitive strike is the steep slippery slope to a full scale invasion, which may take 10 years, cost £10bn, and the loss of 1,000+ British servicemen lives.

The experience of Iraq (and also Helmand) has been so bitter for the British, that they simply do not have the stomach for another campaign of that nature.

The thought of fighting Hezbollah and various Iranian proxies in Syria for the next 10 years must make the British army (not to mention the mandarins in the Treasury) break out in a cold sweat.

Also, the events in Egypt have taught them that the alternative to the brutal corrupt secular dictator is the more brutal more corrupt more medieval deeply islamist and instinctively anti-western dictator from the brotherhood. These countries will not transform into Turkey overnight or even over 3 or 4 decades.

Frankly, if Turkey and Saudi Arabia are such powerful countries, leaders of this and that muslim world, plus they are already neck deep in funding and arming the opposition in Syria, then it is their job to punish Assad for gassing the people of Syria.

Mind you, if Assad does keep gassing his people, at some point the evidence will become so incontrovertible, and then even the British will be forced to get involved, despite having no desire to do so.

In the mean time, lets see how the Rafale performs over Syria.

[Garooda]

!! Warning !!! GRAPHIC !!
Napalm_Used_In_Aleppo

These are the horrific injuries of Syrian civilians who Bashar al-Assad's political rivals say were targeted with phosphorous bombs by the regime.
The troubled country’s opposition coalition said yesterday that the President’s forces had dropped the bombs and napalm on civilians in rural Aleppo on Monday.
It comes as Turkey sent extra aid workers trained to identify and decontaminate chemical weapons victims to its border with Syria after an apparent poison gas attack in Damascus a week ago.

[vinod]

Syrian parliamentarians letter to UK MPs

[Sanku]

^^^ The fear of antagonizing Russia held sway over Brutish MPs finally?

Not really, or in fact, not at all. No one in the British government, parliament or public cares a fig for Russia, .

eklavya-ji, really?

I suspect otherwise, Britian was all fire and brim stone till a day back, then we had news like the following.

It seems the mess in Syria just got a lot more complicated for the US and its allies with the Russian Pacific Fleet sailing into the Mediterranean.

http://en.rian.ru/military_news/2013051 ... anean.html

It seems that the Ruski's have deployed in force for the first time since 1992. Additional ships are expected to beef-up the deployment from the Black sea fleet. This is getting really messy. Putin wants to make sure that the Khan gets a bloody nose if he chooses to flight.

I think the UK just wimped out. It did not expect Russia to dig in its heels (it should have) and was expecting a cake walk like Iraq/Libya with massed forces merrily murdering their way through a regime change. I suspect when they realized that it might not be so easy, the appetite for war evaporated quickly.

Which reminds me, what is shyamd-ji's take on this, yet another unexpected change in Assadfall?

[member_27444]

IS killing of people reprehensible?
Does the weapon used detrmine the killing classification (such as Depleted Uranium, CHemical, Nuclear, Merchettes in Rawanda) as datardly cowardly etc

Is there a limitation of statue or can some country or individuals be convicted of WMD use?

Was not Atmospheric Nuclear test crimes against humanity.

SOme how if you can spin using media you can get away with anything?


So now Assad is a international criminal...
Saddam was OK to use under wink wink by Unkil and Turkey against Kurds...

Agent Orange is Ok
Defoilation agents in Combodia and Laos ok.

[habal]

I don't know if Russia is going to take on the Americans at Syria, but it's continuing intransigence and self-validation articles like 'what can Russians do for Syria/what can Russians do to stop America' seems to indicate a latent fear in the NATO/American-bloc that Russians may still strike elsewhere where they have a strategic advantage like the balkans or caucasus.

It's the lack of consensus that perhaps makes the Americans wary on unforeseen circumstances of a lone strike.

Russian political scientist: If NATO attacks Syria, Russia should occupy Baltic States

“Previously I have suggested that if NATO attacks Syria, we need to more our military forces to the Caucasus region. However, now the situation has changed, Russia has to impact there, where it will have a clear strategic advantage, i.e. the Baltic States,” claims the Russian political scientist, Mikhail Aleksandrov.

As the head of the Baltic States department of the CIS research institute, which is partially founded by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, writes in his blog, Russia must clearly show to the West that in case of aggression against Syria, they will have to pay a dear price.

Aleksandrov also writes in his blog that Azerbaijan made enough of reverence to Russia, so it can be “left at rest”.

“On the one hand, Armenia clearly turned towards the West and is no longer a reliable ally. Its behaviour in the conditions of a new global crisis becomes unpredictable. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has taken steps to get close to Russia. Ilham Aliyev probably has given the guarantees to Vladimir Putin that the West will not be able to use the territory of Azerbaijan while preparing operations against Iran and Russia. Under these conditions, the communication of Russia and Iran near the Caspian Sea will not be threatened and Azerbaijan can generally be left at rest,” writes the political scientist.

Therefore, according to Aleksandrov, it is time for Russia to turn to the countries where it has a strategic advantage.

“Russia must clearly show to the West that for the aggression against Syria, they will have to pay dearly. So, Russia has to impact there, where it has a clear strategic advantage, i.e. the Baltic States. As in the Caribbean crisis, Russia has to raise the dilemma for the West: if you are attacking Syria in violation of the international law, we occupy the Baltic States. (Then, in 1962, the Soviet Union threatened to occupy West Berlin and take the Black Sea’s straits zone).

http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/48921/r ... 201348921/

also this

http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/confl ... _attack-0/

Russia can be next after Syria
26.08.2013


The Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov believes that Russia still needs to help Syria. "We have to constantly realize that we will be next after Syria," the leader of the Communist Party told Pravda.Ru

.

[vinod]

I think the UK just wimped out. It did not expect Russia to dig in its heels (it should have) and was expecting a cake walk like Iraq/Libya with massed forces merrily murdering their way through a regime change. I suspect when they realized that it might not be so easy, the appetite for war evaporated quickly.

I do not think this is the case. Almost no mention of Russia's military moves in debates here. The reasons are purely political and mistrust of PM and ministers over the case made for another war. There is simply no appetitie for it within the general public and MPs vote just reflected the same. I would say if things changes for the worse in Syria, UK can be back in the war. The bottom line is militarily UK is ready for war, but politically Cameron lost massively. His foreign and defence policies are in disarray. PM's power to wage war has been diluted.

[vishvak]

UK didn't do anything at a time when pakis - allies of UK - were called in by Saudis to thrash away minority Shia uprising. UK on the other hand could have ducked out because of domestic backlash by ever outraged(outrage on all sides) Islamic movements. The queendom and empire don't want to be bothered anymore now on by Islamists willing to take over wheeling dealing.

[habal]

this hulk will soon be avisiting .. in December, but do note that it cannot berth at Tartus, since the length of ship is more than 200m and Tartus can accomodate only ships below 100m. Still it is going ..

3-4 months from now, and 3-4 months are what most observers have given the rebels to hold out for at best at present rates of attrition.

Russian Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov To Be Sent To Syria’s Tartus
Published On: Fri, Aug 30th, 2013

The Russian Navy has confirmed its plans to send its heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov to the Syrian port of Tartus in early December.Admiral-Kuznetsov
It said in an announcement made Friday that the visit was scheduled several months ago, will be a routine resupply call and has nothing to do with the current aggravation of the conflict in Syria.

The Admiral Kuznetsov is based in Severomorsk on the Russian coast of the Barents Sea. It carries several Sukhoi jet fighters and Kamov antisubmarine helicopters.

The Russian Defence Ministry said on Friday that Russia has no plans to intervene in Syria’s conflict.

http://inserbia.info/news/2013/08/russi ... as-tartus/

[Garooda]

Germany_Backing_Out

After the British Parliament has voted against a military action by the British army in terms of Syria and while one could hear from France that the French President Hollande is still supporting the military strike on Syria, although he should know that there is no convincing evidence for the US-led accusations against Damascus, the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has just now stated that Germany will not participate in any military strike against Syria.
The German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, said that the government of Germany is not willing to participate in any military attack against Damascus. The Foreign Minister of Germany stated that Germany has ruled out the country’s participation in a military intervention in Syria.

After the British Parliament has voted against a British military action on Syria, the news by the German Foreign Minister are probably the next good news for all anti-war campaigners and people with a sense for morality and humanity.

Not to mention, that any logical thinking comes to the result that a war against Syria will only have dire consequences for the Syrian people, trigger more violence in this Arab country and also will extend the conflict and crisis to other neighbouring country. Some even say an attack on Syria will have serious and dire consequences for the entire Middle East and this is probably correct.

Meanwhile, the former head of Britain’s Royal Navy Baron, Mr Alan West, said in a new interview with Russia Today (RT) that the governments in the United States and Britain have to show the evidence for their accusations that the Syrian government in Damascus has used chemical weapons against civilians near the capital.

The British Ex-Navy Chief, Alan West, further stated in this new interview with Russia Today (RT) that Washington and London should disclose the documents if there are really documents and if there is intelligence information that the government in Damascus has made use of chemical weapons.

According to the statements by the former head of Britain’s Royal Navy Baron, the “people around the world would not trust such claims anymore,” and this is certainly true.

However, the number of interested people is still less than the number of people who do not care about the Syrian conflict, the possible results and such a new war, based on lies and propaganda – and certainly even on a wilfully created pretext by the chemical weapons attack under false-flag near Damascus in order to blame it on the Syrian government and to have a good justification for a war against Syria; a war for the interests of several Western states, the Israeli regime in Tel Aviv, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and certainly not for the “benefits of the Syrian people” or to protect them.

A war on Syria will only increase the violence while it decreases the security and stability of the entire Middle East. Not to mention the potential other dire consequences such a military attack against Syria could be able to trigger – some even spoke about the next Word War (WWIII) in case if Syria is attacked by foreign forces and with having Russia, Iran and China in mind.

The former head of Britain’s Royal Navy Baron Alan West also said in this interesting interview about the potential attack on Syria and the alleged evidence in the hands of Washington and Britain, that both governments should share their (alleged) intelligence information over the chemical weapons attacks in Syria with the Russian administration in Moscow in order to discuss the evidence and the possible actions.

Alan West finally said in his interview with RT (Russia Today), that the international community should wait for the reports by the UN inspectors before they make any decisions in terms of a response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government near Damascus.

According to the former Royal Navy Chief from Britain, it “seems bizarre that we should take action before the UN team that is reporting on our behalf.” True, it does. The former Royal Navy Chief, Alan West, made several good and correct remarks in his interview and even pointed out that the launch of a potential military intervention in Syria will probably strengthen the terrorist al-Qaeda network.

There is just the question whether the United States of America really care about this situation, when they previously have supported the Syrian al-Qaeda offshoots. Not to mention that Washington created Al Qaeda, according to Hillary Clinton. At least, it seems the majority of the American people reject another senseless war without real evidence against the next country in the Middle East. That’s a good sign, isn’t it?

[Garooda]

Syria_US_Position_Live

[Surya]

seriously sanku where do you get this Russia scares someone ???

russia can only be an irritant - unless it wants to go paki and provide nukes

[Lilo]

Why is it that it is only Russia that is resisting the plans of the Western coterie to invade Syria ?
all other major powers who should be equally against the invasion are either sitting pretty or at the most mouthing platitudes (like China ).

India will be the most hard hit if a Syrian conflagration occurs ... Oil will straight away jump above 200$ per barrel and there will be an efflux of PIOs on a massive scale from gulf along with the concomitant drying up of their critical remittances which are shoring up our runaway CAD.

While in Russia's case it will be reverse where oil above 130$ will bring a windfall to their energy exports atleast in the short term (1-2 years). Yet they are not relenting because they are firmly focused on their longterm interest.

In comparison India's external policy especially towards Syrian remains pathetic.

[Garooda]

John_Kerry_CSPAN_Live

State_Dept_Live

[Surya]

Why is it that it is only Russia that is resisting the plans of the Western coterie to invade Syria ?
all other major powers who should be equally against the invasion are sitting pretty or at the most mouthing platitudes (like China ).

because China is not stupid. Its preferred method is through the UN and supplying stuff throught third parties

they know they do not have the muscle yet

[habal]

China has different dynamics & India and rest have been subverted long ago.

[Lilo]

^^ Chindu's Graphic

[Garooda]

Stand by 1 for now from the US.

Interesting_Timings

The U.N. mission inspecting a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria has completed its collection of samples, said Martin Nesirky, spokesman for the U.N. secretary-general said Friday. Nesirky told reporters that inspectors visited a government military hospital in Damascus and will be leaving Syria on Saturday.

[Austin]

US's Kerry releases intelligence on Syria, blames Assad government for chemical weapons attack

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_08_3 ... tack-4293/

[vishvak]

US strategy seems to- be part of any controversy, do its thing to secure interests and deal with everything else later, along with post-war mess. Jiski laathi uski war and interests.

[Austin]

US intelligence report stops short of confirming Assad is responsible for chemical attack

[Philip]

NATO says NO!

Latest report NATO too has withdrawn from the coalition of the willing,now joining more of the unwilling...to attack Syria.Coming both Britain and Germany have said NO,is a huge setback for the US and even after this setback if the US still go ahead,they will look like a bunch of Wild West gangsters rather than the world's most powerful democracy ,whose international policies are based upon clear international protocol and standard conventions of intervention.Obama now runs the risk of adding his name to the long list of US warmongers and war criminals.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mid ... story.html

[eklavya]

If Obama is worthy of his Nobel Peace Prize, he needs to rid Syria of the Assad regime.

Syria chemical weapons attack killed 1,429, says John Kerry

US Secretary of State John Kerry has said Syrian government forces killed 1,429 people in a chemical weapons attack near Damascus last week.

Mr Kerry said the dead included 426 children, and described the attack as an "inconceivable horror".

He said that any response would not involve the US in a protracted conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan.

The government of President Bashar al-Assad has denied carrying out last week's attack and blames rebel forces.

UN chemical weapons inspectors are investigating the alleged poison-gas attacks and will present their evidence to the UN after they leave Damascus on Saturday.

Key US intelligence findings
- US estimates the alleged chemical weapons attack near Damascus on 21 August killed 1,429 people, including 426 children
- Assesses with "high confidence" that Syrian government carried out the attack against opposition elements
- Laboratory analysis from victims of the incident revealed exposure to the nerve agent, sarin
- Assesses it is "highly unlikely" that opposition forces executed the attack
- Assesses with "high confidence" that Syrian government has carried out multiple chemical weapons attacks on a small scale this year
- Assesses the opposition has not used chemical weapons

[eklavya]

India will be the most hard hit if a Syrian conflagration occurs ... Oil will straight away jump above 200$ per barrel and there will be an efflux of PIOs on a massive scale from gulf along with the concomitant drying up of their critical remittances which are shoring up our runaway CAD.

Lilo,

Syrian oil exports are basically nil, and Syria is not close to any major oil trans-shipment route. Why should the US bombing the Syrian regime affect the global oil market so much? War has been going on in Syria for years. Why should US involvement suddenly double the oil price?

I may even speculate that if the US attack does cause instability in the oil market, the US will lean upon the KSA and the UAE to use their spare production capacity (KSA has plenty of swing) to stabilise the market.

Also, Syria is far from the UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, etc. where most Indian people in the region work. Syria has no ability to attack targets in these countries. I don't see any reason why Indian people working in the Gulf countries should leave.

If Iranian mullahs decide to up the ante in the Gulf, they will only be inviting their own regime change. They would rather work through proxies like Hizbollah in Syria and Lebanon, rather than attack the Gulf Arab states directly.

[Garooda]

If Obama is worthy of his Nobel Peace Prize, he needs to rid Syria of the Assad regime.

Syria chemical weapons attack killed 1,429, says John Kerry
Key US intelligence findings
- US estimates the alleged chemical weapons attack near Damascus on 21 August killed 1,429 people, including 426 children
- Assesses with "high confidence" that Syrian government carried out the attack against opposition elements
- Laboratory analysis from victims of the incident revealed exposure to the nerve agent, sarin
- Assesses it is "highly unlikely" that opposition forces executed the attack
- Assesses with "high confidence" that Syrian government has carried out multiple chemical weapons attacks on a small scale this year
- Assesses the opposition has not used chemical weapons

I believe they have a intercepted comm piece as evidence?

[eklavya]

The BBC report quoted above says:

The US government earlier published an assessment of its intelligence, saying this information was backed by accounts from medical personnel, witnesses and journalists, videos and thousands of social media reports.

He said the evidence showed 1,429 people had been killed and that regime forces had prepared for the attack three days earlier.

"We know rockets came only from regime-controlled areas and landed only in opposition-held areas," he said

Obama is instinctively anti-war. Having tried so hard to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan, I very much doubt he will attack Assad and risk getting drawn into the Syrian conflict because he wants to for geo-political reasons; I believe he has to attack Assad to retain any moral authority on the world stage.

Britain is slowly reverting to its pre-empire mentality. The US still views itself as the leading global power.

[Lilo]

India will be the most hard hit if a Syrian conflagration occurs ... Oil will straight away jump above 200$ per barrel and there will be an efflux of PIOs on a massive scale from gulf along with the concomitant drying up of their critical remittances which are shoring up our runaway CAD.

.

If Iranian mullahs decide to up the ante in the Gulf, they will only be inviting their own regime change. They would rather work through proxies like Hizbollah in Syria and Lebanon, rather than attack the Gulf Arab states directly.

Eklavya ji,
If syria is being brought down, why will Iran sit quietly - knowing it will be next in line ?

Isn't the current conflict anyway equivalent to massa and his minions explicitly taking sides in the long festering Shia - Sunni fault lines on the Sunni side (led by Saudis) and playing for the endgame?
What if Syria implodes massively by spewing Chemical weapons in all directions ..Will it not destabilize the region..?

The very real Iran factor means attacks on the oil shipments through Persian straits along with the blockade of both Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil and since the Massa has greatly reduced the dependence on ME oil (due to their shale) massa will not care. they may as well keep on escalating the conflict with no concern for the stability of oil supplies through Persian straits - and which is what they will do certainly. Then we can do nothing but hold our heads and wait for the bad dream to end.

[eklavya]

Lilo,

Assad is gassing the people of Syria. He can no longer be considered the legitimate ruler of Syria. There is no way a crime like this can be left unpunished.

As for Iran, the mullahs want to survive in power. If they block the Straits of Hormuz or impede shipping in the Gulf, they are history.

The US imports about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) and exports 3 million bpd i.e. net imports of 7 million bpd.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_im ... mbbl_m.htm

If the US did not care about oil exports from the Persian Gulf or about disruptions to global oil flows, it would not maintain the huge military presence that it does in the Gulf.

Even if its own import dependence is reducing, that of W Europe, Japan, China and India's remains as great as ever. A disrupted oil market will negatively impact all of the US' key trading and investment partners, and therefore its own economy.

[brihaspati]

Lilo,

Assad is gassing the people of Syria. He can no longer be considered the legitimate ruler of Syria. There is no way a crime like this can be left unpunished.

As for Iran, the mullahs want to survive in power. If they block the Straits of Hormuz or impede shipping in the Gulf, they are history.

The US imports about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) and exports 3 million bpd i.e. net imports of 7 million bpd.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_im ... mbbl_m.htm

If the US did not care about oil exports from the Persian Gulf or about disruptions to global oil flows, it would not maintain the huge military presence that it does in the Gulf.

Even if its own import dependence is reducing, that of W Europe, Japan, China and India's remains as great as ever. A disrupted oil market will negatively impact all of the US' key trading and investment partners, and therefore its own economy.

Since you are repeating what the USA supposedly summarized in its supposed intel brief, you must have personally assessed these thousands of source reports/"evidence" to claim that Assad has "gassed" the people? Can you quote from some? Otherwise you would have stated that according to US and British [and French] claims, etc.

I am curious to know what differentiates the reliability of this claim from the similar ones that were assessed by the very same nations to claim that Saddam had WMD.

[brihaspati]

If American claim is valid, why is Russia's counter-claim not? Because Russia sells arms to Syria? US sells not only arms, but maintains bases with its own personnel and airpower in Saudi influenced lands all around Syria, and have financially mutually beneficial dependence relationships. So pure financial/interests reasons apply to both - and more to USA than to Russia, since Russia's financial benefits are lesser in scale than the US-Saudi relationship. In fact UK is in a similar beneficial arrangement with the key Gulf countries who have been supporting and financing and weaponizing the opposition to Assad.

[eklavya]

I am curious to know what differentiates the reliability of this claim from the similar ones that were assessed by the very same nations to claim that Saddam had WMD.

Are you denying that people have been gassed to death? Or are you denying whether the crime has been committed by Assad's forces?

[brihaspati]

I want to know the proof that Assad "gassed" them as you claimed. Yes, also whether they were "gassed" to death. Chemical weapons use is not restricted to onlee gassing. Delivery does not have to be through artillery or missiles.

[eklavya]

I want to know the proof that Assad "gassed" them as you claimed. Yes, also whether they were "gassed" to death. Chemical weapons use is not restricted to onlee gassing. Delivery does not have to be through artillery or missiles.

Do your own research. There is plenty of proof all over the internet. If you are in crime and criminal denial mode, you will fail to find it.

[brihaspati]

I want to know the proof that Assad "gassed" them as you claimed. Yes, also whether they were "gassed" to death. Chemical weapons use is not restricted to onlee gassing. Delivery does not have to be through artillery or missiles.

Do your own research. There is plenty of proof all over the internet. If you are in crime and criminal denial mode, you will fail to find it.

Proof all over the internet?!!! You mean Saudi linked Sunni islamist sites and their supporters in the UK or USA?

Sure, crime concoction and false evidence planting also a crime and criminal mode. If you are yourself in crime and crime concoction mode - you will fail to provide evidence.

[brihaspati]

Well the first piece that landed up on "internet research" is this one:
http://www.infowars.com/rebels-admit-re ... ns-attack/

Rebels Admit Responsibility for Chemical Weapons Attack
Militants tell AP reporter they mishandled Saudi-supplied chemical weapons, causing accident
Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
August 30, 2013

Syrian rebels in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta have admitted to Associated Press correspondent Dale Gavlak that they were responsible for last week’s chemical weapons incident which western powers have blamed on Bashar Al-Assad’s forces, revealing that the casualties were the result of an accident caused by rebels mishandling chemical weapons provided to them by Saudi Arabia.


“From numerous interviews with doctors, Ghouta residents, rebel fighters and their families….many believe that certain rebels received chemical weapons via the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and were responsible for carrying out the (deadly) gas attack,” writes Gavlak. (back up version here).

Rebels told Gavlak that they were not properly trained on how to handle the chemical weapons or even told what they were. It appears as though the weapons were initially supposed to be given to the Al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra.

“We were very curious about these arms. And unfortunately, some of the fighters handled the weapons improperly and set off the explosions,” one militant named ‘J’ told Gavlak.

His claims are echoed by another female fighter named ‘K’, who told Gavlak, “They didn’t tell us what these arms were or how to use them. We didn’t know they were chemical weapons. We never imagined they were chemical weapons.”

Abu Abdel-Moneim, the father of an opposition rebel, also told Gavlak, “My son came to me two weeks ago asking what I thought the weapons were that he had been asked to carry,” describing them as having a “tube-like structure” while others were like a “huge gas bottle.” The father names the Saudi militant who provided the weapons as Abu Ayesha.

According to Abdel-Moneim, the weapons exploded inside a tunnel, killing 12 rebels.

“More than a dozen rebels interviewed reported that their salaries came from the Saudi government,” writes Gavlak.

If accurate, this story could completely derail the United States’ rush to attack Syria which has been founded on the “undeniable” justification that Assad was behind the chemical weapons attack. Dale Gavlak’s credibility is very impressive. He has been a Middle East correspondent for the Associated Press for two decades and has also worked for National Public Radio (NPR) and written articles for BBC News.

The website on which the story originally appeared - Mint Press (which is currently down as a result of huge traffic it is attracting to the article) is a legitimate media organization based in Minnesota. The Minnesota Post did a profile on them last year.

Saudi Arabia’s alleged role in providing rebels, whom they have vehemently backed at every turn, with chemical weapons, is no surprise given the revelations earlier this week that the Saudis threatened Russia with terror attacks at next year’s Winter Olympics in Sochi unless they abandoned support for the Syrian President.

“I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games are controlled by us,” Prince Bandar allegedly told Vladimir Putin, the Telegraph reports.

The Obama administration is set to present its intelligence findings today in an effort prove that Assad’s forces were behind last week’s attack, despite American officials admitting to the New York Times that there is no “smoking gun” that directly links President Assad to the attack.

US intelligence officials also told the Associated Press that the intelligence proving Assad’s culpability is “no slam dunk.”

As we reported earlier this week, intercepted intelligence revealed that the Syrian Defense Ministry was making “panicked” phone calls to Syria’s chemical weapons department demanding answers in the hours after the attack, suggesting that it was not ordered by Assad’s forces.

UPDATE: Associated Press contacted us to confirm that Dave Gavlak is an AP correspondent, but that her story was not published under the banner of the Associated Press. We didn’t claim this was the case, we merely pointed to Gavlak’s credentials to stress that she is a credible source, being not only an AP correspondent, but also having written for PBS, BBC and Salon.com.

[eklavya]

U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government’s Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013

[brihaspati]

Some more from Dale :
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.ie/2013/0 ... ed_29.html

Syrians in Ghouta Claim Saudi-Supplied Rebels Behind Chemical Attack
This article is a collaboration between Dale Gavlak reporting for Mint Press News (also of the Associated Press) and Yahya Ababneh.

Ghouta, Syria — As the machinery for a U.S.-led military intervention in Syria gathers pace following last week’s chemical weapons attack, the U.S. and its allies may be targeting the wrong culprit.

Interviews with people in Damascus and Ghouta, a suburb of the Syrian capital, where the humanitarian agency Doctors Without Borders said at least 355 people had died last week from what it believed to be a neurotoxic agent, appear to indicate as much.

The U.S., Britain, and France as well as the Arab League have accused the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for carrying out the chemical weapons attack, which mainly targeted civilians. U.S. warships are stationed in the Mediterranean Sea to launch military strikes against Syria in punishment for carrying out a massive chemical weapons attack. The U.S. and others are not interested in examining any contrary evidence, with U.S Secretary of State John Kerry saying Monday that Assad’s guilt was “a judgment … already clear to the world.”

However, from numerous interviews with doctors, Ghouta residents, rebel fighters and their families, a different picture emerges. Many believe that certain rebels received chemical weapons via the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and were responsible for carrying out the dealing gas attack.

“My son came to me two weeks ago asking what I thought the weapons were that he had been asked to carry,” said Abu Abdel-Moneim, the father of a rebel fighting to unseat Assad, who lives in Ghouta.

Abdel-Moneim said his son and 12 other rebels were killed inside of a tunnel used to store weapons provided by a Saudi militant, known as Abu Ayesha, who was leading a fighting battalion. The father described the weapons as having a “tube-like structure” while others were like a “huge gas bottle.”
Ghouta townspeople said the rebels were using mosques and private houses to sleep while storing their weapons in tunnels.

Abdel-Moneim said his son and the others died during the chemical weapons attack. That same day, the militant group Jabhat al-Nusra, which is linked to al-Qaida, announced that it would similarly attack civilians in the Assad regime’s heartland of Latakia on Syria’s western coast, in purported retaliation.

“They didn’t tell us what these arms were or how to use them,” complained a female fighter named ‘K.’ “We didn’t know they were chemical weapons. We never imagined they were chemical weapons.”

“When Saudi Prince Bandar gives such weapons to people, he must give them to those who know how to handle and use them,” she warned. She, like other Syrians, do not want to use their full names for fear of retribution.

A well-known rebel leader in Ghouta named ‘J’ agreed. “Jabhat al-Nusra militants do not cooperate with other rebels, except with fighting on the ground. They do not share secret information. They merely used some ordinary rebels to carry and operate this material,” he said.

“We were very curious about these arms. And unfortunately, some of the fighters handled the weapons improperly and set off the explosions,” ‘J’ said.

Doctors who treated the chemical weapons attack victims cautioned interviewers to be careful about asking questions regarding who, exactly, was responsible for the deadly assault.

The humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders added that health workers aiding 3,600 patients also reported experiencing similar symptoms, including frothing at the mouth, respiratory distress, convulsions and blurry vision. The group has not been able to independently verify the information.
More than a dozen rebels interviewed reported that their salaries came from the Saudi government.

Saudi involvement
In a recent article for Business Insider, reporter Geoffrey Ingersoll highlighted Saudi Prince Bandar’s role in the two-and-a-half year Syrian civil war. Many observers believe Bandar, with his close ties to Washington, has been at the very heart of the push for war by the U.S. against Assad.

Ingersoll referred to an article in the U.K.’s Daily Telegraph about secret Russian-Saudi talks alleging that Bandar offered Russian President Vladimir Putin cheap oil in exchange for dumping Assad.

“Prince Bandar pledged to safeguard Russia’s naval base in Syria if the Assad regime is toppled, but he also hinted at Chechen terrorist attacks on Russia’s Winter Olympics in Sochi if there is no accord,” Ingersoll wrote.

“I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games are controlled by us,” Bandar allegedly told the Russians.

“Along with Saudi officials, the U.S. allegedly gave the Saudi intelligence chief the thumbs up to conduct these talks with Russia, which comes as no surprise,” Ingersoll wrote.

“Bandar is American-educated, both military and collegiate, served as a highly influential Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., and the CIA totally loves this guy,” he added.

According to U.K.’s Independent newspaper, it was Prince Bandar’s intelligence agency that first brought allegations of the use of sarin gas by the regime to the attention of Western allies in February.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the CIA realized Saudi Arabia was “serious” about toppling Assad when the Saudi king named Prince Bandar to lead the effort.

“They believed that Prince Bandar, a veteran of the diplomatic intrigues of Washington and the Arab world, could deliver what the CIA couldn’t: planeloads of money and arms, and, as one U.S. diplomat put it, wasta, Arabic for under-the-table clout,” it said.

Bandar has been advancing Saudi Arabia’s top foreign policy goal, WSJ reported, of defeating Assad and his Iranian and Hezbollah allies.

To that aim, Bandar worked Washington to back a program to arm and train rebels out of a planned military base in Jordan.

The newspaper reports that he met with the “uneasy Jordanians about such a base”:

His meetings in Amman with Jordan’s King Abdullah sometimes ran to eight hours in a single sitting. “The king would joke: ‘Oh, Bandar’s coming again? Let’s clear two days for the meeting,’ ” said a person familiar with the meetings.

Jordan’s financial dependence on Saudi Arabia may have given the Saudis strong leverage. An operations center in Jordan started going online in the summer of 2012, including an airstrip and warehouses for arms. Saudi-procured AK-47s and ammunition arrived, WSJ reported, citing Arab officials.

Although Saudi Arabia has officially maintained that it supported more moderate rebels, the newspaper reported that “funds and arms were being funneled to radicals on the side, simply to counter the influence of rival Islamists backed by Qatar.”

But rebels interviewed said Prince Bandar is referred to as “al-Habib” or ‘the lover’ by al-Qaida militants fighting in Syria.

Peter Oborne, writing in the Daily Telegraph on Thursday, has issued a word of caution about Washington’s rush to punish the Assad regime with so-called ‘limited’ strikes not meant to overthrow the Syrian leader but diminish his capacity to use chemical weapons:

Consider this: the only beneficiaries from the atrocity were the rebels, previously losing the war, who now have Britain and America ready to intervene on their side. While there seems to be little doubt that chemical weapons were used, there is doubt about who deployed them.


It is important to remember that Assad has been accused of using poison gas against civilians before. But on that occasion, Carla del Ponte, a U.N. commissioner on Syria, concluded that the rebels, not Assad, were probably responsible.

Some information in this article could not be independently verified. Mint Press News will continue to provide further information and updates .

Dale Gavlak is a Middle East correspondent for Mint Press News and the Associated Press. Gavlak has been stationed in Amman, Jordan for the Associated Press for over two decades. An expert in Middle Eastern Affairs, Gavlak currently covers the Levant region of the Middle East for AP, National Public Radio and Mint Press News, writing on topics including politics, social issues and economic trends. Dale holds a M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Chicago. Contact Dale at [email protected]

Yahya Ababneh is a Jordanian freelance journalist and is currently working on a master’s degree in journalism, He has covered events in Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Libya. His stories have appeared on Amman Net, Saraya News, Gerasa News and elsewhere.

[eklavya]

I believe they have a intercepted comm piece as evidence?

You're right. From the report linked above:

We intercepted communications involving a senior official intimately familiar with the offensive who confirmed that chemical weapons were used by the regime on August 21 and was concerned with the U.N. inspectors obtaining evidence. On the afternoon of August 21, we have intelligence that Syrian chemical weapons personnel were directed to cease operations.

[brihaspati]

U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government’s Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013

This is an assessment report and not any compilation or link to primary resources on which this supposed conclusion was drawn.

If as the Dale report suggests, the Islamists were already given the chemical weapons for storage by Bandar and these were being stored in tunnels or elsewhere - heavy shelling and missile strikes could "accidentally" have set them off if they had not been properly stored.

The effects would be similar to actual missile/artillery delivery.