AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 22 Sep 2013 11:41

Q for AP gurus...

Before chiranjeevi's plunge into politics (and the curious the US consular visit during poll time with him), the kapu vote was split between TDP and INC, no?

So now that the PRP fiasco has played itself out will the kapu vote however continue to remain with the c-system? Just curious onlee...

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 22 Sep 2013 15:16

Hari garu, IMO the kapu vote will stay with the con party. Not only the kapu vote, but a significant portion of the OBC vote has shifted to the con party. Even though Chiranjeevi himself is an OC, he represents the aspirations of the OBCs because because he emerged on top in an industry dominated by reddys and kammas. They probably see a bigger future for him in the Congress party, may be a future CM. Congress has engineered the caste vote quite brilliantly. Though YSR is given credit for the Congress wins in the last two elections, I think it is largely the brain trust of the con party at the center which is behind the T agitation, PRP and probably YSRC.

Now CBN has no choice but to go after the larger Hindu vote. Caste dynamics are simply not favorable to him. He will lose the muslim vote permanently even if he has a post poll alliance with BJP. So he might as well have a pre-poll alliance and maximize his chances. I think a post poll alliance with TDP is not of much use for BJP. And this time, the BJP better get a significant portion of the seat sharing.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Sep 2013 18:15

Hari Seldon wrote:Q for AP gurus...

Before chiranjeevi's plunge into politics (and the curious the US consular visit during poll time with him), the kapu vote was split between TDP and INC, no?

So now that the PRP fiasco has played itself out will the kapu vote however continue to remain with the c-system? Just curious onlee...

It used to be almost straight contest between two parties until the T factor emerged. Kapus are the swing voters of AP. In one election they voted to one and next they voted to other. This made the INC or TDP win/lose.

This time Congress is not going to win at all. The question is how much TDP can do the dent into Congress-B parties like YSRC (Jagan) and TRS(KCR). TDP is resigned to fate of two states and is looking to go on NaMo wave. It is well suited to get on to the popular wave because it is in opposition for 10 years. The strategy will work if planned properly.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Sep 2013 18:17

hanumadu wrote:Now CBN has no choice but to go after the larger Hindu vote. Caste dynamics are simply not favorable to him. He will lose the muslim vote permanently even if he has a post poll alliance with BJP. So he might as well have a pre-poll alliance and maximize his chances. I think a post poll alliance with TDP is not of much use for BJP. And this time, the BJP better get a significant portion of the seat sharing.

It is the strategy of www.india272.com

Not looking too much of post poll alliance. To remove congress build a vote combining pre-poll alliances. BJP may accept to more in Assembly to TDP and substantial seat to BJP for LS. I don't see BJP getting more than 10 seats even after a hard bargain.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Sep 2013 21:21

But stopping congee and their b teams must be main aim. 10 seats are ok as the best result was 4. But CBN shall first bite the bullet and join NDA.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 22 Sep 2013 21:46

Narayana Rao wrote:But stopping congee and their b teams must be main aim. 10 seats are ok as the best result was 4. But CBN shall first bite the bullet and join NDA.

If TDP and BJP ally, can they win together 20 seats together?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Sep 2013 22:31

vivek.rao wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:But stopping congee and their b teams must be main aim. 10 seats are ok as the best result was 4. But CBN shall first bite the bullet and join NDA.
If TDP and BJP ally, can they win together 20 seats together?

They will get about 30 out of 42.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 23 Sep 2013 00:26

CBN/TDP should be asked to concentrate on the State and leave the National elections in AP to NaMo while joining NDA

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 23 Sep 2013 01:18

Muppalla wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:
If TDP and BJP ally, can they win together 20 seats together?
They will get about 30 out of 42.

That would destroy the mafia.

When Modi wanted to go full out and get max seats for BJP, Advani wanted to go with allies and defensive. Proves that Modi is right. Allies will come only if BJP is strong.

Probably Naidu was playing cool all this time to avoid CON MAFIA to attack him using CBI and Judiciary. BJP/NDA should really clean up dangerous judges and babus once they come to power unlike Vajpayee

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 05:30

Muppalla wrote: They will get about 30 out of 42.

Muppalla garu, where are you getting your numbers from?

you are underestimating the hold of INC and YSRC. they won't be gotten rid of so easily. they have a role, yet, to play in Andhra region. they will not give up that area so easily. people might be angry, but they don't have the direction to vote clearly for an alternative.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Sep 2013 05:32

Devesh garu,

The ground situation has changed a lot in past two months.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Sep 2013 05:37

Per Eenadu news paper, as part of the cabinet note the first option for t-state is

- to form Telangana state with 10 districts and any other districts that voluntarily become part of t-state

What will they do if all 23 states want to be part of Telangana state?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Sep 2013 07:20

devesh wrote:
Muppalla wrote: They will get about 30 out of 42.

Muppalla garu, where are you getting your numbers from?

you are underestimating the hold of INC and YSRC. they won't be gotten rid of so easily. they have a role, yet, to play in Andhra region. they will not give up that area so easily. people might be angry, but they don't have the direction to vote clearly for an alternative.

I am not underestimating. Congress will have a portion of its leg if it gives Telangana with Hyderabad in it and with no nonsense. But apparently this is not happening.

On the Seeamandhra side it is a one-on-one contest between TDP and Jagan. There is really no congress. On the Telangana side it will be TDP+BJP Vs INC+TRS. Take any bets in a one on one contest it will always be disadvantage INC even in normal circumstances. In these unusual situations where the Gandhis are even scared to visit any Telugu lands there is no way. The remaining 12 will be split between Jagan and KCR and one goes to MIM.

The game is like this. BJP opened itself to alliances with Jagan, KCR and TDP. T-TDP threatened to split off and merge with BJP after NaMo HYD meet. CBN sensing the positive wave gave an indication. Now the seat adjustments are going on. As far as I know T-BJP is putting some needed hurdles before getting into a grand deal with TDP. It is once bitten twice shy.

On the seemandhra side there is no anger at all with TDP. CBN is doing pretty good. CBN wants to quickly wrap the alliance as he does not want to lose out to Jagan/TRS on any anti-congress waves. In the end Modi's BJP many ask for more Parl seats in return for more assembly seats to CBN. In addition, as there will be two states, CBN is looking for a plum central position in NDA to be relevant.

Any lease of life to TDP from BJP means TDP revives big time in two states and they cannot go together for a long time as both has same vote base and that is the hindu votes that is non secular and non vested interest ones.

Things are fluid and no doubt about it but CBN opened up is interesting thing to watch.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 08:13

on a side note: have restarted reading the "musunuri nayakulu" given to me by gpati ji. visited the wikipedia page on it today.
looks like some BRF jingo went crazy to his/her heart's content!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musunuri_Nayaks

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Sep 2013 08:58

Problem with CBN is he always thinks for short term gain and will never allows others to grow. He has to change a lot if he want to fit in today's NDA. BJP also shall insist he and others of his party join cabinet this time. Either Tdp should be part of NDA on long term basis or used and destroyed in short term. Lack of national vision by CBN can not be tolerated for long.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 09:59

Either Tdp should be part of NDA on long term basis or used and destroyed in short term. Lack of national vision by CBN can not be tolerated for long.

I hope they understand the above. for a nation like India, the regional leaders should find a national vision to fit the people's aspirations.
TDP's mistake was thinking that they could play aloof and use-and-throw BJP for their anti-INC purposes.

disha · Post by **disha** » 23 Sep 2013 10:19

RamaY wrote:Per Eenadu news paper, as part of the cabinet note the first option for t-state is

- to form Telangana state with 10 districts and any other districts that voluntarily become part of t-state

What will they do if all 23 states want to be part of Telangana state?

If they really put that clause in., that will be great. All other districts of AP should join into the "new" t-state first - in effect it will be renaming AP to Telangana.

Is the cabinet so dumb?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Sep 2013 10:27

No. There are too smart for there own good. With Diggi Raja as incharge of AP u can expect such batla house ideas only. They just want to divided AP so that then can retain 30 mp seats from Telugu people. That is all. The problem is people may not be fooled for long and there is no one even to contest for them.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Sep 2013 16:32

Jagan got bail. Next stage of drama started.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 17:01

Ah...so that's why I had been getting all those signals on Jagan, even if I wasn't explicitly told anything about his release. Need nore experience in decoding cryptic words. Over few weeks, was told by 2 separate sources that Jagan's strength in T should not be underestimated. I had wondered why the sudden interest in that topic...

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Sep 2013 17:26

His criminal gang has criminals in almost all places in AP. You have to live and be in business, politics etc in AP to see this network and it's power and it's reach. There may be some serious dramas in futures. He has EJ support and INC expects him to win handsomely and join UPA 3. This is the plan all along.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 23 Sep 2013 17:36

So Jagan is one of the most corrupt politician and his gang is one of the most corrupt gang. How do people vote for such corrupt people.

No campaigns against Jagan and his criminal enterprise by secularists.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Sep 2013 17:51

kabooom

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Sep 2013 17:59

vishvak wrote:So Jagan is one of the most corrupt politician and his gang is one of the most corrupt gang. How do people vote for such corrupt people.

No campaigns against Jagan and his criminal enterprise by secularists.

All leaders at MLA constituency level are given eng/med colleges or corp hospitals which is a 50 crore business. The fee reimbursement program for college students (35+ Lakh students per year) and arogyssree programs feed these at 10 crore per year. So every Mandal level there is Rs 10 crore funds for party leaders (right now they are split between inc and YSRCP).

Nearly 50 Lakh students are covered in fee reimbursement program and another 50L to 1crore people have arogyssree cards (health insurance coverage). This is 1-1.5 crore voters from just two programs. Then add the contractors who are feeding on Jalayajnam project which has about Rs 10k crore outlays every year. Then add mining lobby and real estate lobby.

Then the lynchpin is the liquor program and belt shops which ensure that people have enough to drink.

This is YSR's corruption kingdom. In 5+1 years of his rule, he created a kingdom of anywhere between Rs 2-3Lakh crore, which pumps at least Rs 20-45,000 crores for this group. That is the financial muscle of YSRCp and congress in AP.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Sep 2013 18:42

It takes several pages to give broad idea about Jagan criminal gang activities. Now this development will or may give additional 20 MP seats tp congee criminal gang in 2014 as he will support upa 3 only.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 23 Sep 2013 18:55

Looks like they are holding YSJ as trump card and CBN meeting BJP is the trigger point.

Now I expect seemandhra congis to lineup behind YSJ.

This to checkmate KKR and CBN.

Since congress is determined to go with t-state, options for seemandhra employee union are YSRCP and BJP. Now what happens if bJP says two states? Leaves the field to YSRCP

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 23 Sep 2013 19:12

Why do I see Elite school students "liking" Jagan's release? I am quite disturbted + surprised, but he seems to have generated a young dynamic messiah image. And this crowd is not AP crowd, but strictly IIT-Non-Telugu crowd. The tag line "He is Back"! Does Jagan have such a strong Pan-India appeal?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 23 Sep 2013 19:13

Narayana Rao wrote:It takes several pages to give broad idea about Jagan criminal gang activities. Now this development will or may give additional 20 MP seats tp congee criminal gang in 2014 as he will support upa 3 only.

So how come this open loot and corruption is not highlighted by secularists and media. The corrupt criminal gang is corrupt criminal gang. People are now coopted in what is government and people's money but in twisted manner for middlemen of all types to make merry.

It is job of media to point out role of criminal gang instead of giving excuses. How dilli-billi are silent on this while con party formed b teams and post poll alliances.

There is always something or the other in each state. In Chhattisgadh Maoists killed off politicians and his son in targeted attack. In AP there is Telangan movement every 5 years. In UP this time anti Hindu riots outright. Very sinister that the country has to pay price of polling every 5 years while dilli-billi and con party and b teams take credit off the nation and loot public money.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 19:22

ramay garu, I have your email. will email it. I'm working off a slow network. will send it to you soon.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Sep 2013 19:29

This Telangana movement has taken people away from the real issues of governance in most of AP. That is the reason for Jagan getting traction. He getting 20+ is just exaggeration/fear mongering. He will not cross double digit and watch how things will turn out. Just because he flipped to united-AP slogan, there is no extra push for him.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 19:33

Muppalla garu, stop getting distracted by T-movement. you think Jagan wouldn't have risen if not for the T-vadis? that is delusional.

Jagan's trajectory was set when his father started rising in INC. that's when the YSR dynasty's rise began. TRS/T-vadis have nothing to do with Jagan's rise. don't tie a donkey to a monkey and say they make a good couple. it's grotesque.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 19:35

RamaY garu, done. I shared it with you. should receive an email with an attachment and have it on your google drive.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Sep 2013 19:46

devesh wrote:Muppalla garu, stop getting distracted by T-movement. you think Jagan wouldn't have risen if not for the T-vadis? that is delusional.

Jagan's trajectory was set when his father started rising in INC. that's when the YSR dynasty's rise began. TRS/T-vadis have nothing to do with Jagan's rise. don't tie a donkey to a monkey and say they make a good couple. it's grotesque.

Why you always get excited about any analysis that has T-movement as the reason

. T-movement may be genuine but its usage is only politics and only helped a good anti-national platform. Any thing else is just spin. Small states, loots are all just discussion points. Even now if the split actually happens in fast and furious way it will still be good and damage can be controlled.

If you see, both sides the folks have only one thinking and that is state bifurcation. Jagan would have receded back had there no Telangana movement. Because of T-movement only TDP is weakened. You can make any number of analysis, TDP would not have weakened otherwise. In the divided house in every district, even with 25 to 30% you look like a king. Before the advent of T movement, it was always 45% of TDP Vs 40% of INC or vice versa. These days even having a 25% vote makes you look like a king.

As we exchange view, Jagan is given bail and they are releasing him on Tuesday so that his folks will have time to receive the Nelson Mondela/Mahatma Gandhi now. There will be a survey also showing he will sweep polls.

Congress has resigned to the fate of B-Teams from AP. KCR+INC+Jagan is what they will get from the Monkeys (also called as Telugus).

Added later:
In 2004 when TDP lost, they still got 36% percent of votes. In 2009 when congress won 33 seats they got only 33% of votes.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Sep 2013 20:00

prahaar wrote:Why do I see Elite school students "liking" Jagan's release? I am quite disturbted + surprised, but he seems to have generated a young dynamic messiah image. And this crowd is not AP crowd, but strictly IIT-Non-Telugu crowd. The tag line "He is Back"! Does Jagan have such a strong Pan-India appeal?

He does have such an image. CBN is having a manipulator image. BJP is having a communal image. Jagan is having an image of "cool".

Vamsi.R · Post by **Vamsi.R** » 23 Sep 2013 20:05

i have seen non-telugu youth calling for CBN to come back as CM !!. i am expecting this youth wagon which is supporting jagan will cool down in 2-3 months.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Sep 2013 20:15

Vamsi.R wrote:i have seen non-telugu youth calling for CBN to come back as CM !!. i am expecting this youth wagon which is supporting jagan will cool down in 2-3 months.

The election will be fought between TDP and Jagan. Congress will be in sideline in Andhra region. I think TDP will have an upper hand if it is just governance issues. However, TDP will be put into a situation of divider of state by Jagan and Congress in the seemandhra region. Reality is that he has ZERO role and he is cornered by all means. If he does not go with BJP even in T region he will be seen with suspicion even though he reluctantly agreed for the T-state.

TDP going with BJP is a good thing and it has to be cemented fast. BJP should also exploit the situation that CBN is going through and extract a total of 12 to 14 Parl seats from TDP. If this coalition is achieved, then there is a fair change of TDP+BJP romping home.

Congress is playing a destabilizing game in AP. It knows how to manage chaos. This is where a cool headed politics with cold calculations is necessary.

The governance, development are not issues in AP. The issues are Telangana, United AP and status of Hyderabad. The Modi mania of the country is not there except in HYD.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 23 Sep 2013 20:24

Muppalla garu, you are repeating a broken tape, saying everything in AP is due to T-movement. it's not. KCR and his thugs are a minute force and are only looking so powerful b/c of INC stage-managing them form behind the curtains.

Jagan and YSR's rise has nothing to do with TRS. TRS was a pawn in the hands of YSR when he was alive. after YSR's death, Jagan has been charting his own trajectory, and TRS/KCR have no say in what he does or doesn't do. INC ultimately has leverage on Jagan. NOT T-vadis. So stop ascribing everything and their father to the T-vadis. have some perspective, please.

Vamsi.R · Post by **Vamsi.R** » 23 Sep 2013 20:25

Muppalla wrote:
Vamsi.R wrote:i have seen non-telugu youth calling for CBN to come back as CM !!. i am expecting this youth wagon which is supporting jagan will cool down in 2-3 months.
The election will be fought between TDP and Jagan. Congress will be in sideline in Andhra region. I think TDP will have an upper hand if it is just governance issues. However, TDP will be put into a situation of divider of state by Jagan and Congress in the seemandhra region. Reality is that he has ZERO role and he is cornered by all means. If he does not go with BJP even in T region he will be seen with suspicion even though he reluctantly agreed for the T-state.

TDP going with BJP is a good thing and it has to be cemented fast. BJP should also exploit the situation that CBN is going through and extract a total of 12 to 14 Parl seats from TDP. If this coalition is achieved, then there is a fair change of TDP+BJP romping home.

Congress is playing a destabilizing game in AP. It knows how to manage chaos. This is where a cool headed politics with cold calculations is necessary.

The governance, development are not issues in AP. The issues are Telangana, United AP and status of Hyderabad. The Modi mania of the country is not there except in HYD.

i agree with you sir !!
please correct me if iam wrong
however,what iam expecting is that TDP will have a slight advantage over YSRCP in SA region , my base for this point is that ,the craze and mania what jagan had an year and half ago is not visible now(i have seen some students who used to watch jagan's speeches in youtube are now sharing anti-jagan stuff on fb) .and also expecting jagan to merge his party in congress( that might be one of the conditions in the bail).

iam not sure if SA people will embrace TDP-BJP relation.may be they will,if modi and CBN give a combined speech in SA.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Sep 2013 20:54

In 25 MP seats there is united AP force and Japan is the only politico supporting it. Cbn can make lot of sounds but anger is there on him also. So Jagan starts with advantage. Plus huge migration of inc gangs is expected into Japan gang soon. This will give him further advantage. So cbn need to work really hard and shall fully behind bjp allies. I personally know what he did in 2004 and such under hand ideas shall not be there with him. May be bjp ask him for 30 mp seats from ap. That will save bjp from lot of problems.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Sep 2013 21:00

Devesh Garu, ysr gangs were always there
TDP's weakening == ysr's rise
T-movement's strength increase triggered TDP to a stage where it could just not take on INC/YSR ecosystem. If u takeaway that link and just discuss in isolation all spin comes out. Tell me just one thing that was primetime in any news from AP other than bifurcation since ysr died. Everything else in AP including Modi is straw man.