AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 26 Sep 2013 19:16

Amol.D wrote:Atriji; they = Cong or BJP ?

BJP+SS+MNS+RPI

If this thing materializes... else 22-23... max 25..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Sep 2013 01:13

Yesterday had a talk with a forum member of CBN's compulsions to tie up with BJP in 2014.

A few thoughts came up:
- This is third try for CBN. If he loses he becomes potential to be offed
- Some of the TDP could have given him ultimatum that they need to get power
- Others in TDP might have openly conveyed their plans to move to BJP
- CBN is unable ot attract the anti INC anger in AP to his party mainly duie to his 'persona' of back stabber
- Such being the case he needs to ally with a potential winning national party.
- INC is ruled out as he represents anti-INC groups
From 2004 to 2013 ie about ten years he has shunned the BJP claiming that the Muslim vote is important for him. However demographics shows most of the Muslim vote is confined to Telangana region and Hyderabad in particular. So all along he was mislead into thinking he will win in Telangana and Hyderabad if he shuns BJP. Now why will a die hard Muslim vote for TDP which was a supporter of BJP for about six years from 1998-2004 when they have INC as an alternative and MIM in particular? By chasing after illusory Muslim vote he has lost pwoer in AP and made his supporters irrelevant and leaderless. His supporters are in Andhra region and he is chasing the supporters in Telangana and losing power.

BTW, Hyderabad votes were always split between MIM vs BJP, INC and TDP.
And MIM used to win.

The elections in AP are both state and national at same time. And if the anti-incumbent voter splits his vote one for BJP and one for Jagan he is totally toast. So he has to ally with BJP.
At same time he has to yield state pwoer to some others and show he can be large and move to Center.

Pioneer today has this op-ed from Kalyani Shankar who is quite astute:
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... -wave.html

Chandrababu Naidu may ride Modi wave
Friday, 27 September 2013 | Kalyani Shankar | in Oped
12345 0 As the original tech-savvy poster-boy of development stares at a third consecutive loss, he may return to the NDA to remain relevant

Going by his recent moves, Telugu Desam Party supremo Chandrababu Naidu is desperate to gain relevance at the national and State levels. Remembering his golden period in the late nineties, Mr Naidu is determined to become at least a king- maker, if not the king, after the 2014 election. The man, who could be described as a prototype of Mr Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, is, understandably, feeling isolated.

In some ways, Mr Modi and Mr Naidu are two sides of the same coin — except that the former has the support of a national party. Yet, it was Mr Naidu who first showed the country how to run a laptop-and-teleconference administration. It was he who perfected the art of self-projection in media and spent crores for this purpose. He also got funds from abroad to transform Hyderabad into the metropolis that it is today. He went from being a backroom boy for the National Front to the convener of the United Front from 1996 to 1998. He was an important supporter of the NDA from 1999 to 2004.

There was a time when the Telugu Desam Party, headed by a man considered to be the most tech-savvy politician of his day, was no match for other parties, especially when it came to mounting a publicity and media relations blitz. Also, from the perspective of Andhra Pradesh, Mr Naidu offered good governance and used his cordial relationship with the Union Government to get developmental activities moving.

However, all this did not help him win elections either in 2004 or 2009. In 2009, in an act of desperation, he got into an alliance with the TRS and Left parties in Telangana. But the shrewd Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Rajasekhara Reddy used film star Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party to split opposition votes while inciting anti-bifurcation sentiment in the Seemandhra region to help the Congress come back to power in with an overwhelming majority. With the untimely death of Rajasekhara Reddy in 2009, Mr Naidu thought that his party could return to prominence.

But the rise of YSR’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy has dampened this hopes. Now that Mr Reddy is out on bail, Mr Naidu has more cause to worry — the Congress has apparently an understanding with Mr Reddy on a post-poll arrangement; and, in the Telangana region the Congress-TRS combine is all set for a victory. Where does that leave the TDP?

Mr Naidu is now staring at the possibility of a third consecutive defeat in the State. His flip-flops on the Telangana issue have not helped. Some TDP leaders are already planning to move to either the Congress or the TRS. In the Seemandhra region too, TDP leaders are sceptical about Mr Naidu because he hasn’t rescinded his 2009 ‘letter of support’ for bifurcation of the State. This strategy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound is only hurting Mr Naidu’s prospects.

Desperate to remain relevant, the Andhra leader has positioned himself at the forefront every time the idea of a non-BJP, non-Congress ‘Third Front’ has come up. But neither the Left parties nor the major regional parties seem to be seriously considering this alternative front. So, Mr Naidu is keeping open his option of returning to the NDA either before or after the 2014 poll even though he had blamed the BJP for his 2004 defeat. But does he want to ride the Modi wave?

Starved of members, the BJP-led NDA would like to have the TDP in its fold, especially as it seeks to reconstruct its 90s dream team. Mr Modi even hinted at this during his Hyderabad rally. He is also trying to engineer a patch up between the two Thackeray cousins while seeking to win over Mr BS Yeddyurappa in Karnataka and Mr Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand. Meanwhile, the BJP is wooing potential allies in Assam and other North-Eastern States. It believes that the North-East and the south are the the two areas where the party needs to strengthens its base the most. A section within the BJP also wants an alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal.

In such a scenario, Mr Naidu is unable to make up his mind about which issues will affect him more — Telangana or the Muslim votes. The Jagan Reddy-Congress combine will be bad news for him. No wonder he is facing a Hobson’s choice.

Its not Hobson's choice as both Telangana and Muslim vote banks are cutting him down.
One big thing his move to BJP shows that there is traction for BJP even in AP!!!!

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 27 Sep 2013 08:24

If TDP-BJP does not come to power this time in AP, then the alternative is this for years to come.

Jagan Reddy's corrupt 80 crore house with one of the biggest christian evangelical cross in Hyderabad to boot

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 27 Sep 2013 10:26

Let's start calling him Samuel Jagan Reddy. It is a pity how many parties get disillusioned with the Muslim vote. The Muslim vote never splits and it invariably goes to Cong I in most places. And to SP in UP. Mayawati, Chandrababu Naidu and Nikumma are all living in some lala land. Same with Amma too. I hope true blue Hindus kick the crap out of these parties for deserting the core constituency and vote Modi ji enmasse.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 27 Sep 2013 10:30

I don't understand how anyone in AP votes YSR and Samuel Jagan Reddy types. Not only are they corrupt, dishonest and outliers, they are a grave threat to our Sabhyata and Sanskriti. How can people overlook that in-your-face red thing that sticks out like a nasur.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 27 Sep 2013 11:57

AP is now a totally corrupt place. YSR and others created a condition wherein people simply ignore corruption allegations. But deal between xongee and Samuel Jagan is being talked openly by xongee MPs and even cabinet ministers who seems to realize that xongee simply abandoned them for Samuel criminal gang. Tv news is full of it. We have to wait and see if there is wholesale exodus from XONGEE to TDP or created a new party. Unwinding of xongee in 25 MP seats is great news if this process is irreversible and streathen anti xongee forces and do not act as b team of xongee.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Sep 2013 17:49

AP people are looking for a strong, assertive, go-getter and most importantly loyal to their cause type leader. They don't see any such leader in INC, TDP, BJP etc parties. That is why they are voting for either Owaisis or Samuels. That is the strength KCR had until the news about his deal with congress came out.

When TDP had a leader like that in NTR, they voted for him too. When CBN demonstrated similar traits he was elected to power before he crashed it with shenanigans.

In the current scenario, there are only three or four such leaders
1. NM - but only limited to center
2. Sameul Jagan - state specific
3. KKR - But no one is sure where he will be in 2014.
4. Owaisi - but is limited to few MLA locations

KKR+BJP is better than CBN+BJP for majority people

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 27 Sep 2013 19:14

Did any of Paritala Ravindra's killers survived ? There are rumors that Samuel Jagan mafia killed all of them least their names get exposed. How true is this narrative ?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Sep 2013 19:37

vnmshyam garu,

Here is a map that shows the real Telangana

Look at Maratha kingdom in Orissa. Perhaps this explains why he gave up circars to British and not some other regions.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Sep 2013 19:45

Another Map, that explains why/how British got Madra presidency and Northern circars.

So you tell us why Telangana agitation want to protect Nizam identity and not Telugu identity?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 27 Sep 2013 20:54

Rony wrote:If TDP-BJP does not come to power this time in AP, then the alternative is this for years to come.

Jagan Reddy's corrupt 80 crore house with one of the biggest christian evangelical cross in Hyderabad to boot

So it must be true that now that around 31% of Andhra population is christian, hence they openly display the cross - the bible etc.

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 27 Sep 2013 23:40

Is there any information that we can use to highlight the extent of EJ activity in AP and how they are harvesting souls by offering financial rewards. Spreading the word might help in alleviating further damage.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 28 Sep 2013 05:23

Ej in AP is real concern and that's why Samuel must be stopped. I went to hospital on the other day and I was given bible by one of patients while coming back. It is that bad. But slowly people are realizing and push back started. now many people started to talk about bible carried by yrs wife. Bjp tdp alliance will be a good thing on long term basis also.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 28 Sep 2013 23:55

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8d3dmDcvSc

NTV Nielsen Survey in Telangana over the secession .

59 % of Telanganites for division
41 % of Telanganites against division

Telangana districts which are against the division

Hyderabad
Mahboobnagar
Khammam

Telangana districts for division

Nalgonda
Warangal
Nizamabad
karimnagar
Rangareddy
Adilabad
Medak

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 29 Sep 2013 00:07

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NtBX5eJgu4

Seemandhra Congress leaders Ready to join TDP and YSRCP?

All the Reddy Congress leaders from Seemandhra are ready to jump into Samuel Jagan's party.

Kammas and the rest into TDP

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 29 Sep 2013 00:09

^^^
Rony avare,
This poll outcome is kind of a pleasant surprise even with the amount of dirty polarization done for the past 10 years.

If those criminaly induced suicides by opportunists in impressionable young minds were not allowed to occur in the first place , who knows more people in telangana would have been inclined for a shared destiny with the rest of the Telugu's.
Now the fact that those suicides have occurred has itself become a catch all argument used for shooting down all and every logic urging for an understanding to occur between the divided telugus. Sad actually.

Was even one person charged for abetting suicide in all those deaths ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Sep 2013 01:12

Rony wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8d3dmDcvSc

NTV Nielsen Survey in Telangana over the secession .

59 % of Telanganites for division
41 % of Telanganites against division

Telangana districts which are against the division

Hyderabad
Mahboobnagar
Khammam

Telangana districts for division

Nalgonda
Warangal
Nizamabad
karimnagar
Rangareddy
Adilabad
Medak

This is a surprise if this survey is genuine. About eight years ago Deccan Chronicle survey gave 51% for and 49 against. Even after pumping up T-sentiment for so many years, it is still not into 60% stuff.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Sep 2013 01:16

Rony wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NtBX5eJgu4

Seemandhra Congress leaders Ready to join TDP and YSRCP?

All the Reddy Congress leaders from Seemandhra are ready to jump into Samuel Jagan's party.

Kammas and the rest into TDP

That is polarization. By the time of elections the contest will be just between TDP and YSRCP. Anything that the remainder congress gets will give advantage to TDP. On the Telangana side if INC goes without a T state, TRS+INC is not going to do good beyond seven or eight seats. TDP+BJP(if they form alliance) will draw good seats.

The scenario of completely rolling back the division and INC+YSRC merger with Jagan as CM is something needs to be modeled. TDP will be in deep trouble in such a scenario.

Bottomline is T Vs United AP is the only issue in AP politics. All these EJism, governance, corruption are passé.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Sep 2013 13:26

That is what inc want to do.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 30 Sep 2013 19:33

This is to put pressure on Congress and get more bargains.But he wont walk the talk.
But look at the comments in NDTV. Some people are praising him just because he said some good words on Modi. If this is the level of maturity even among normally much mature Modi supporters, then it is a concern.

Samuel Reddy's praise for Narendra Modi suggests he's keeping options open

Politician Jagan Mohan Reddy, recently released on bail after a year in prison in Hyderabad, today praised Narendra Modi, who is running for Prime Minister, as an administrator he admires and urged, "We want Narendra Modi to come to a secular platform." Religion must not be politicised, Mr Reddy said. His family had said recently that it will not tie up with Mr Modi's party, the BJP.

Mr Reddy also attacked the Congress, the party his father belonged to, for its decision to divide Andhra Pradesh.

Mr Reddy met the governor, ESL Narasimhan, to demand a special session of the state legislature to collate opinion against the bifurcation which will result in the formation of a new state of Telangana.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Sep 2013 19:53

Rony garu..

Apply some chanikianness

Just few days ago if someone said NM and some good word in the same speech, he was excommunicated by the secularists (media, JNUwallahs etc).

Now it became all acceptable. ONLY because public is convinced with Moditva.

This is the key takeaway. If Y Sameul Jagan goes with INC even after saying this, he will be rightly assessed by the public as Congress-B team, unlike earlier.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 30 Sep 2013 20:00

My gut feeling is jagan will praise NaMo but not enter pre poll alliance. will keep it hanging.

NaMo wave is gathering speed likely the basis for his actions along with congis getting poor reports.

howver he will be comfortable with congis dspiet cbi etc as he can negotiate better and be safe.

NaMo is uncompromising in his principles. Jagan will not be happy sharing alliance with him.

----------------------------
One hopes that andraites do not fall for this trap and end up voting jagan and his criminal gang.

TDP BJP overall may be a net loser.

congis must be chuckling at this.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Sep 2013 20:17

^ I dont think so.

I think the reason behind silence of CBN on two-state approach has to do with BJP's commitments as well.

While I am a samaikyavadi I can live with a T-state if it leads to complete destruction of termite queendom and its local satraps in AP.

I also have a feeling that Modi vision of Bharat will have a key policy change in "River Water Sharing" something in the lines of Sri Satya Sai Baba's suggestion long time ago.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Sep 2013 20:35

Boss log, Jagan and family can be tissue papers but his party, cadre, sears are what we want. Just don't combine both and increase AP's EJ population to 50% and call Mr.Muppalla as EJ on another day. If Modi can go with TDP, he can go with Jagan and he can go with KCR too. Every idiot is good to build a Maha samrajhya like the Magadh or Satavahana empire. Just keep that focus. Yes CBN is great deliverer but in the big picture every one is same. The need of the hour is to kill the termite.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Sep 2013 20:38

YS Jagan's reaching for BJP might make CBN jump the stick and stop being coy.
This YSJ-BJP defacto understanding will eliminate CBN antics/nakre.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Sep 2013 20:43

Muppalla wrote:Boss log, Jagan and family can be tissue papers but his party, cadre, sears are what we want. Just don't combine both and increase AP's EJ population to 50% and call Mr.Muppalla as EJ on another day. If Modi can go with TDP, he can go with Jagan and he can go with KCR too. Every idiot is good to build a Maha samrajhya like the Magadh or Satavahana empire. Just keep that focus. Yes CBN is great deliverer but in the big picture every one is same. The need of the hour is to kill the termite.

Muppala garu, request you watch this weekend's Open Heart with RK with Revanth Reddy. It has quite a few nuggets that you always mentioned.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Sep 2013 22:07

RamaY wrote:Rony garu..

Apply some chanikianness

Just few days ago if someone said NM and some good word in the same speech, he was excommunicated by the secularists (media, JNUwallahs etc).

Now it became all acceptable. ONLY because public is convinced with Moditva.

This is the key takeaway. If Y Sameul Jagan goes with INC even after saying this, he will be rightly assessed by the public as Congress-B team, unlike earlier.

[posting after a month gap]

Only because YSRCP has been called Congress-B team, he wants to release some words on Modi so gullible believe there is no INC-TRS-YSRC nexus and it is off.

KCR of TRS just abused YSR (YSR became pigeon in pigeon hill (where he was buried) for opposing Telangana). It is also to say there is no INC-TRS-YSRC nexus

There are going extra length to repositioning themselves as opposing each other for political convenience. TDP and some INC and YSRC dissidents already spilled beans that agreement is reached for nexus. Any positive or negative comments on leaders and parties need to looked through that nexus prism. PRP used to raise shrill against INC, esp when meetings were held at place where TDP was strong or was to win. Run to next elections will have some model like that - publicly opposing and privately cooperating.

BJP instead of falling to their tactics need to bring out the nexus to public also so at least some gullible public realize and vote for anti-Congress parties.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 30 Sep 2013 22:21

time for Jagan to drop more than just the mask. he needs to drop the white clothes too. saffron is much more suitable for him.
same with his sister. time to unabashedly indulge in rama-nama-sankeerthana and come back home from the long wilderness.

if only there was a Vidyaranya today...

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 30 Sep 2013 22:36

+1 devesh garu.. that will be a game changer for entire Deccan.. but unlikely..

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Sep 2013 22:40

There is Brother Anil. Jagan is playing drama. His relation with mafia is based on EJ calculations of creating EJ base in AP. I do not see him coming to dharmic side. His statement is to cover and hide his deal with termite queen. The decision on Telangana would not have taken with a prior deal with him. Further he has income tax and enforcement directorate cases wi0which mafia needs to help him.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Sep 2013 22:52

ShyamSP wrote:<snip>

ShyamSP garu,

All political parties are doing nothing but posturing at this point of time.

- INC wants to win both T-state and SA-state by creating two states and then aligning with TRS and YSRCP
- BJP wants to win both T-state and SA-state by aligning with TRS and TDP
- TDP wants to win both T-state and SA-state by aligning with BJP
- TRS wants to win T-state by getting a clear T-state bill either thru INC or BJP
- YSRCP wants to win whole AP (if possible) or sweep SA-state if the split happens.

If you read my posts, all I am saying is the REAL outcome of all this posturing is BJP is no more an untouchable in AP politics. And the all the political parties GREW OUT of their Muslim vote-bank; at least in their public posturing.

This is advantage BJP, to that extent.

Now once the elections are declared, BJP can take all these guys to task based on its alliance structure. I am assuming T-state cannot be declared, if not declared already by then, once election code comes into effect.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 30 Sep 2013 22:58

devesh wrote:time for Jagan to drop more than just the mask. he needs to drop the white clothes too. saffron is much more suitable for him.
same with his sister. time to unabashedly indulge in rama-nama-sankeerthana and come back home from the long wilderness.

if only there was a Vidyaranya today...

Devesh ji,
Y this Sarcasm ?

Brief outline of Jagans's family

Sister YS Sharmila married to Brother Anilkumar (who is as EJ as one can get)
Mother YS Vijayamma campaigns while prominently displaying a bible in her hand.
Under Father YSR 's rule the EJ assault was conducted on a state wide scale.
Grandfather YS Raja Reddy was a political strong man who used to receive money from EJ's abroad paid on a pro rata basis to the headcount of the heathens he facilitated to convert in his home district.

So why will any one expect that Jagan will don kesri all of a sudden ??

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Sep 2013 23:47

devesh wrote:time for Jagan to drop more than just the mask. he needs to drop the white clothes too. saffron is much more suitable for him.
same with his sister. time to unabashedly indulge in rama-nama-sankeerthana and come back home from the long wilderness.

if only there was a Vidyaranya today...

This will not happen as it will be too much of an expectation. All we need is will BJP grow up to play chanikyan and use this fellow or sabotage this fellow to smithereens.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 30 Sep 2013 23:58

no sarcasm at all. I really do wish we had a Vidyaranya today.

stranger things have happened. think about it! why can't we dream like that again?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 01 Oct 2013 14:15

But not with ~~Japan~~ Jagan type fellows guruji.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 01 Oct 2013 18:57

Isolated Kiran Kumar Reddy may launch own party (TOI)

HYDERABAD: Virtually reduced to a persona non grata in the Congress, chief minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy has renewed his efforts to launch a new political party.

Sources in the CM camp said Kiran Kumar had delayed the idea of floating a new party till now in the hope that he would be able to stall the Congress high command from going ahead on the Telangana process. However, his vehement pro-Seemandhra talk with a tinge of anti-Congress rhetoric has been viewed as rebellion and violation of the 'laxman rekha' of party discipline because of which he has become a person non grata with 10, Janpath and 24, Akbar Road, the party headquarters. No senior AICC leader was willing to take his telephone calls when he was in Delhi last week and neither party chief Sonia Gandhi nor AICC general secretary Digvijaya Singh gave him appointment. Home minister Sushilkumar Shinde met him reportedly to discuss the matter of extension of the term of DGP V Dinesh Reddy. His calls to Digvijaya after his return to Hyderabad were not returned, said the sources. "The isolation of Kiran Kumar Reddy in the Congress is complete," said cabinet minister and a Kiran supporter.

According to the minister, Kiran has revived the idea of forming a new party and is waiting for an opportunity to make apparent his intention. He is being projected as the "Samaikyandhra Simham". According to sources, Kiran is now more enthusiastic to float a new party because the situation is more advantageous for such a proposal. "At first, Kiran was worried about the YS Jaganmohan Reddy wave. But, Jagan's image has been tarnished because of his alleged alliance with the Congress to get the bail. Now, YSR Congress is busy disproving the allegation. On the other side, the Telugu Desam Party is hamstrung in Seemandhra because of its pro-Telangana letter. So, Kiran thinks he is the only true and unalloyed champion of the Seemandhra cause. And he believes the people will receive him," a close associate of Kiran told TOI.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 01 Oct 2013 20:22

KKR doesnt have the strength to win his own mla seat. He was made CM precisely because of this reason.

this is all tolu bommalata (dolls played) by congress high command. The tango of KKR and damodar, the deputy CM is seen to be believed.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 01 Oct 2013 20:36

Exactly...

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Oct 2013 03:24

The Telangana dream is still far, Cabinet nod on statehood to be delayed

Sources said Sushilkumar Shinde has not yet given a go ahead to the draft prepared for presentation before the Cabinet.

Usual Cong game of running with hare, hunting with hound merrily goes on, clearly...

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 02 Oct 2013 04:45

Interview with Revanth Reddy of TDP . He talks very practically, from Telangana, has a ABVP/BJP (and TRS) background. Has ambitions of becoming MP and possibly CM (if telangana happens). Me thinks he has a bright future. He has lots to say. Recommended interview (in Telugu).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIzOD_VVf20 part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb_lKsT4c0g part 2