Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Sep 2013 20:52

Can someone throw some light on the dalit voting pattern in bihar? Do they vote en-masse for paswan in seats where ljp contests? I mean they are 15% of the pop. I see congress moving towards a muslim-dalit model in the ganga valley belt. Bihar has 17% muslims also. This 32% (dalit+muslim) + kurmis (approx 5%) can get congress-jdu-paswan decent mileage in the elections.

Any thoughts??

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Sep 2013 21:45

muraliravi wrote:Can someone throw some light on the dalit voting pattern in bihar? Do they vote en-masse for paswan in seats where ljp contests? I mean they are 15% of the pop. I see congress moving towards a muslim-dalit model in the ganga valley belt. Bihar has 17% muslims also. This 32% (dalit+muslim) + kurmis (approx 5%) can get congress-jdu-paswan decent mileage in the elections.

Any thoughts??

Just looking at the vote shares of the different parties in 2010. Paswan's LJP had about 7% of the vote, Laloo had about 18% of the vote, Congress had 8% of the vote, JD(U) had about 22.5 % of the vote, and BJP had 16.5% of the vote. I will be very surprised if JD(U) can keep half of their vote intact - the other half is going to migrate to the BJP. That makes it approximately 11% of the vote for JD(U), about 7% of the vote for Paswan, and about 8% of the vote for the Congress - altogether making about 26% of the vote. BJP will have about 27.5% of the vote. Now it depends on how the RJD votes get divided, how much they retain, and we need to factor in the anti-incumbency factor against both the Congress and the JD(U). All in all, I would say that even if Paswan and Nitish join Congress, the BJP will not be badly off at all. They have a more than even chance of winning about 50% of the seats.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 30 Sep 2013 22:27

On arrest of Lalu and its repercussions on Bihar politics.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 30 Sep 2013 23:01

Couple mamas on GHQ side are in senior admin pos in vihar. Back in April-may when JDU BJP was still intact and Nikumma still considered Modis elevation as internal thing of BJP I was surprised to hear them say that aam Janata is not all that happy with Nikumma, specially with the teacher Bahali ie recruitment. Came as a shock to me because it was the first time I had heard anything against nitish. Only to be followed by bhatkal case and extreme disinterest of vihar bolis and Bodhgaya incidents. Of course there is drought in south vihar. Civic admin truly knows hawa Kis Taraf beh rahi hai

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 30 Sep 2013 23:07

RBP is not an unchalleneged Paswan Leader (less said about all of SC). Chedi Paswan can defeat him in Sasaram, while Nishad (another SC) can easily get all Nishads in his corner, in spite of RBP. In Vihara MS are further divided into forward and backward caste with deep anomosity.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Oct 2013 08:43

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 282241.cms

Centre to act on Telangana before Oct 6: ~~Kiran Kumar Reddy~~ KCR

KCR said a common capital should be transitory and his party was okay with the idea on humanitarian grounds, but was unwilling to compromise whatsoever on the statehood for 10 districts of Telangana with Hyderabad as its capital.

KCR also said he was very much in touch with the Congress high command and the home ministry and exuded the confidence that the Centre would act on Telangana before October 6. "The Union cabinet meeting is slated for October 3 or 4 and the indications are that the cabinet note on Telangana would come up for approval," he said. "According to my information, everything will be over by October 6. And the Congress high command will pull the plug on its leaders who are defying its decision to bifurcate the state," continued KCR.

Firing salvos at CM Kiran Kumar Reddy for his alleged biased stand in favour of Seemandhra, KCR said the CM's days in the office are numbered. Attacking the CM, KCR said he was unfit to be the chief minister since he was behaving as leader of one particular region.

"It is better Kiran Kumar Reddy resigns before he is sacked. His defiance is being noted by his party leadership. Digivjaya Singh told me that the high command knew when to pull the plug on the CM," KCR added.

Turning towards TDP president Chandrababu Naidu and YSR Congress president YS Jaganmohan Reddy, KCR dubbed them as Telangana betrayers as they were born in Seemandhra. "Whoever is born in Lanka is a demon, and whoever born in Seemandhra is a Telangana Drohi (betrayer of Telangana)," KCR thundered, amid loud applause.

Debunking the claims of Naidu that the Seemandhra region must be given Rs 5 lakh crore as compensation for the bifurcation, KCR said it was Telangana that deserved the compensation since the region had been suffering all along after its merger with Andhra Pradesh is 1956.

the heading is wrong. it should be "KCR" instead of "KKR".

first time I'm hearing of Oct 6 being some sort of deadline.

niran · Post by **niran** » 01 Oct 2013 09:13

first it was a Mahapanchayat by women folks which lathicharged the polis
now Gazi Azam Khan gets notice from High court to explain himself about the whole sale transfers of Jat
polis to eastern UP from Muzafarnagar zone, that too on a petition from a lowly seepahi, sarkari counsel did try really hardfor the usual
delaying tactics such as it needs to be studied, but the honorable court put paid to it and stayed all transfers ordered Azam Khan to explain himself on 10 of this month with all the documents.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Oct 2013 18:15

So the first blush of re-establishment of moghal sultanate is being resisted. It is a fine study of history, if anyone wants to see, how a big majority lost in history to a small minority. The blue print is there. The Hindu society as that time fought as castes, its Jats now, (rest of the hindus sat silently as they were not Jats), then came the Rajputs, (then everyone else minus jates sat silent (since jats cease to exist))...you get the drift. Then also tehre was some man singh as Mullay yadav is now to barter his sister/mother for some crumb of power. The other fact to keep is that there is additional twist, it has a power in center that repersent colonial power and its religion. It has whole litany of Brown Sahibs and converted people supporting it (that was exactly the situation in 1857, when Delhi was won for few days after first war of independence, freedom fighters went for all these assorted brown sahibs (many who have converted) and braught justice to them. That stopped spread of an alien belief system until 15 aUG 1947 (A LULL OF 90 YEARS).

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Oct 2013 19:18

BJP forms 20 Uttar Pradesh panels for 2014 polls

Lucknow, Oct 1 - The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Tuesday formed 20 committees in Uttar Pradesh (UP) to oversee the party's campaigns and networking in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.

The party held a marathon meeting to assess its preparedness for the string of rallies over the next few months in which Gujarat Chief Minister and the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi would be the chief speaker.

Senior leader M. Venkaiah Naidu and general secretary in-charge of party affairs in the state Amit Shah chaired the meeting.

Addressing media persons after the meeting, Naidu said that Uttar Pradesh was the centre of its national plans to return to power and everything was being micro-managed in the state now.

"UP is a very important state for us and we want our workers, activists and supporters to go all out in the state to create a positive atmosphere for the BJP," Naidu said.

He announced a Friends of BJP campaign would be run in the urban areas to "further consolidate the goodwill generated in favour of the party".

Naidu also said that eight-odd rallies would be held across the state between October 15 and November 30. These would culminate in a 'Karyakarta Mahakumbh' in Lucknow in December.

The party has urged Modi to address as many rallies as possible in the state as it would like to cash in on his popularity. IANS

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Oct 2013 20:22

niran about Bihar. What if the Yadav community decides that Lalu was betrayed as 2g corruption is much much more and decides to vote enblock for him only?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 Oct 2013 21:24

ramana wrote:niran about Bihar. What if the Yadav community decides that Lalu was betrayed as 2g corruption is much much more and decides to vote enblock for him only?

Ramana sir,

My guess is that even if they feel sorry for him, they will want to teach congress a lesson for doing this to him. They know that muslims will anyway go with cong-jdu. So their best option to punish congress is to back Namo. Now if nitish feels that aligning with congress is not a good option for him, then muslims may end up dividing their vote between all parties except bjp, but mostly will vote for lalu. In that case, yadavs may back lalu to some extent, but that will be a case of all parties going alone. In that case BJP will romp home anyway becos on a single party basis they have the largest vote share in bihar. JDU was primarily drawing bjp's votes.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 Oct 2013 21:26

niran wrote:first it was a Mahapanchayat by women folks which lathicharged the polis
now Gazi Azam Khan gets notice from High court to explain himself about the whole sale transfers of Jat
polis to eastern UP from Muzafarnagar zone, that too on a petition from a lowly seepahi, sarkari counsel did try really hardfor the usual
delaying tactics such as it needs to be studied, but the honorable court put paid to it and stayed all transfers ordered Azam Khan to explain himself on 10 of this month with all the documents.

Niran sir,

Maya recently issued a statement that she wont align with congress, or i guess congress wanted too many seats. Is this bargaining going on? will they ally before the elections?

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 01 Oct 2013 21:36

My opinion is that Mayawati will ultimately align with BJP. She knows that Congress has no future and she is too shrewd to algin with a spent force.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 01 Oct 2013 21:58

wrong thread

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Oct 2013 22:38

Wanted to write this, but wanted to avoid doing it at work. Today WFH, so here it goes

In Bihar, the forward caste have a group. One caste among them (say 2-3% of the vote) had dominated the discourse before Lalu came in. The shift in power was violent (google shahi killings from Mujaffarnagar). BJP has the support of upper caste (including the 3% upper caste) - 20% odd (not all upper caste vote BJP, the Rajputs of AURNAGABAD for example vote BJP). BJP also has support of Yadavs from Bhagalpur area (all the adjacent, 5 LS seats bordering WB), many other OBC and SCs. Unlike UP, neither the SC are locked to RBP or Yadavs to Lalu (I would say in his case yadavs except for few regions are with him). Congress had support FC + SC + Secular Religion at one point of time, now it is because of some indiivudual netas (and has residual 5-10% vote, typical hanger ons, they will vote Con even if an a$$ was a PM candidate). JDU has votes of mainly Kurmis (but there are many other Kurmis leader, even though he is the tallest, but most likely kURMIS MAY STICK TO HIM, 6%). Another caste Koeris, similar % are with JDU, closely knit caste with Kurmis, but substantially different. A good Koeri leader in BJP, with Modi as PM candidate can sway that caste this side. Then there are OBS and EBC, each very small, together very significant, with two things in common, all of them Hindu and all of them exploited by dominant caste, traditionally voting against FC but also Hindutva minded.
The moves BJP is making are good. Yadavs mostly have rowdy leaders (Sadhu), courting him will help. Current Bihar head of BJP is Yadav, taht should help. With Chedi Paswan and other leaders they are making run for SC votes. A kurmi and Koeri leader is needed. The risk is antagonizing UC votes (mainly the 3%). But the general anti-Congress mood should help.
Another note, there was dissatisfaction against Niku even in his first term (more so now), but given the choice was laloo, he got many TINA votes. Now BJP in the fray, I hope and pray that his goose is truly cooked!!
He is one another villain of erstwhile Janta Party that enjoys image not true to his nature!!

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Oct 2013 22:49

3% is Bhumihar's in Bihar Fanne ji. Why the secrecy ?

BTW its Muzzafarpur

BBTW -- Kurmis are pissed with Nitish for breaking with BJP on Modi. They are very communal onlee

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 Oct 2013 23:56

Sanku wrote: BBTW -- Kurmis are pissed with Nitish for breaking with BJP on Modi. They are very communal onlee

That is good to hear, Sanku-ji. Also, the BJP already has good Koeri leaders - Lakshmi Narayan Mehta, Baleshwar Bharti, and Satyendra Kushwaha. They were hamstrung because they had no leg room when they were in alliance with Nitish. Now, freed from that millstone around the BJP neck, these people can grow into their own strength, and help the BJP build bridges with the Koeris.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Oct 2013 00:15

Sanku wrote:BBTW -- Kurmis are pissed with Nitish for breaking with BJP on Modi. They are very communal onlee

This will have resonance in UP

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 02 Oct 2013 00:19

Even in Barh ppl were against Niku, i doubt kurmis are, i have never seen any OBC caste so organized and ambitious (more than yadav).

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Oct 2013 03:19

Does seem like 'em psecs are panicking in UP... ==> amitbhai shah must be having enough of an impact to rile up so much concerted (and overt) opposition from across the sekular spectrum.

Ban Amit Shah from UP if you want to maintain peace, Congress to SP

The Congress alleges that ever since Shah, BJP's in-charge for UP, came to the state, an atmosphere of riots and clashes has been created there.

So, Cong 'appeals' to SP to ban Amit Shah. As if SP is reluctant and needs convincing... Heck, why not ban the BJP itself from UP, eh? Na rahega baas, na bajegi baasuri...

I see a pattern here... Nikumma banning namo from Bihar owing to "concerns about disturbance communal peace" due to namo's planned 27-oct Hunkar rally at Gandhi maidan, Patna; now SP looking to "ban" Amit shah from UP... what's next, Gehlot Banning Raje from Rajasthan also on said 'communal amity concerns', perhaps?

Of course, the big prize of course would be to somehow (re-?) engineer a ban on the RSS itself.

This has gone beyond tragedy, and now, beyond farce... Only.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Oct 2013 03:49

So our poor rustic "founding fodder" is a guest of the state.The arrest of a Cong. Rajya Sabha MP for fraud,etc.,is another huge blow to corrupt politicos.The SC has delivered a truly telling judgement that will go a long way in keeping criminals out formal politics,though they will still operate from behind the scenes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Oct 2013 04:05

Philip. Welcome to the netherworld. You will have mcuh more fun here than in the other forums!!!

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 02 Oct 2013 04:48

niran wrote: all of the above and more
such as 35,000 rupee for girls passing 12th standard, but there is a catch, onree minority/Yadavs girls are eligible

I am all for minority girls(girls only mind you) receiving money for education or preferential treatment in jobs. Female education is the single most important factor in birth control. So yes, provide all incentives for them for higher studies and even reservation in jobs.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 Oct 2013 05:57

Hari Seldon wrote:Does seem like 'em psecs are panicking in UP... ==> amitbhai shah must be having enough of an impact to rile up so much concerted (and overt) opposition from across the sekular spectrum.

Ban Amit Shah from UP if you want to maintain peace, Congress to SP

The Congress alleges that ever since Shah, BJP's in-charge for UP, came to the state, an atmosphere of riots and clashes has been created there.
So, Cong 'appeals' to SP to ban Amit Shah. As if SP is reluctant and needs convincing... Heck, why not ban the BJP itself from UP, eh? Na rahega baas, na bajegi baasuri...

I see a pattern here... Nikumma banning namo from Bihar owing to "concerns about disturbance communal peace" due to namo's planned 27-oct Hunkar rally at Gandhi maidan, Patna; now SP looking to "ban" Amit shah from UP... what's next, Gehlot Banning Raje from Rajasthan also on said 'communal amity concerns', perhaps?

Of course, the big prize of course would be to somehow (re-?) engineer a ban on the RSS itself.

This has gone beyond tragedy, and now, beyond farce... Only.

Farce?

If CongIs do the "ban" thingy - then they have introduced - drumroll please - Emergency. Suspension of all your rights - including going to a different town/state and indulging in bhashan baaji - or get arrested on suspicion of doing that when 3 or more gather!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Oct 2013 06:27

Congress is putting a SoS type desperate rules on Modi visiting UP. They just want to find one or other pretexts to stop Modi visiting UP.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 02 Oct 2013 08:23

fanne wrote:Wanted to write this, but wanted to avoid doing it at work. Today WFH, so here it goes

JDU has votes of mainly Kurmis (but there are many other Kurmis leader, even though he is the tallest, but most likely kURMIS MAY STICK TO HIM, 6%). Another caste Koeris, similar % are with JDU, closely knit caste with Kurmis, but substantially different. A good Koeri leader in BJP, with Modi as PM candidate can sway that caste this side. Then there are OBS and EBC, each very small, together very significant, with two things in common, all of them Hindu and all of them exploited by dominant caste, traditionally voting against FC but also Hindutva minded.

Fanneji, I really enjoy your posts. But I think you may be wrong on Kurmis. Kurmis have moved out of Bihar en-masse. Lot of houses are down to 15-20% folks - basically budha budhi are the only ones staying put. Lot of them have moved to Gujarat among other places have seen the economic miracle of growth. The ones in Bihar are not too happy with Nikumma. If he thinks he got his s*!t together he he has another thing coming.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 02 Oct 2013 10:45

Sanku wrote:3% is Bhumihar's in Bihar Fanne ji. Why the secrecy ?

BTW its Muzzafarpur

BBTW -- Kurmis are pissed with Nitish for breaking with BJP on Modi. They are very communal onlee

Sanku ji, Bhumihars would be atleast 6-7% in Bihar. Even this is mostly concentrated near Ganga River adding to their political strength. This 3% figure is long obsolete.See the constituency wise distribution. Kurmis would be around 3%. Except Nalanda and adjoining areas(Patna, Barh etc) they are not as decisive in other parts of Bihar. JDU will continue performing well in these areas. Apart from Patna Nitish Kumar has done lot of work in Nalanda. Koeries(5-6%) have much higher numbers than Kurmis and almost all their Political leaders are opposed to Nitish (BJP has a chance here).

A point of caution. Lot of posters have started to calculate electoral prospects of different political parties as per the current caste arithmetic. The problem with this approach is that it fails to account for a " Wave " type phenomenon that has started to happen in the case of Namo. When a wave is happening all the caste permutations and combinations start falling by the wayside.

Wrt Bihar, BJP could also do well by keeping a tight watch over Sushil Modi. He has his own agenda and doesn't have the confidence of ordinary BJP supporter.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 02 Oct 2013 10:54

Lot of people have been saying that inspite of Namo wave BJP will not be able to win substantially more seats in UP. My point is that either there is a wave in favour of Namo or there isn't. If there is indeed a wave happening 40-50 seats are a minimum for BJP. If there is no wave than BJP would be hard pressed to maintain its current tally(around ten seats). There is no way I see BJP at 20-30 seats in UP.

niran · Post by **niran** » 02 Oct 2013 11:11

If one place his or her ears to the ground
then it is NaMo all round this all political parties
realize hence all the posturing to demonize modi
the call to unite against modi clearly demonstrates the
fear of defeat and then the process to pay up for past misdeed

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 Oct 2013 14:31

I agree with darshhanji. If there is a wave, 40 to 50 in up and 20 to 25 in Bihar is not impossible. We can see indications of a wave and if it sustains till election day very good result will be there.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Oct 2013 16:00

2009 too those had seen through the UPA were hoping for them to get out. The Indian public in its mega wisdom, brought them back. Hope it's not a repeat.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 02 Oct 2013 16:24

^^^ its usually the rate of growth of the economy which dictates the mood of the nation.

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Oct 2013 16:42

^ No unfortunately that's not true , majority of our electorate still gets wooed by freebies , token promises and the local sensitivities. Else how can one explain NDA loosing the 2004 elections despite a good performance at the center ?

Modi might be a man for development but our people don't even know what development is , Gujarat only realized it after Modi had already been elected for 2 terms.

Down in the trenches i.e. each and every constituency in states like UP/Bihar/MP/UK the local candidates will still talk about local issues remember the BSP slogan in UP i.e. "Tilak, Taraju, Talwar in sabko maaro joote chaar" (Tilak(symbol for brhmins), Taraju(Vaishya/Kayasthas), Talwar (Kshatriyas) hit them with shoes ) , then there are sect/caste specific processions (Baman aarti etc etc). Bhayya wo bolte hain na hamare gaon mein to aisa hi hota hai (That's how we roll here).

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Oct 2013 16:58

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 02 Oct 2013 17:11

negi wrote: Modi might be a man for development but our people don't even know what development is ....

Development == Jobs .

That must be the message and NaMo IMO is already building this equivalence at a country wide level.

That we need to be export oriented , we need to be cheaper ,we need to be efficient etc he already communicated to the industry heads. He has to explain that only he alone can create the Jobs to go with above - to the masses of this country .

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 02 Oct 2013 17:16

Boss it is not hard to see why BJP did not do well in Bihar/UP and at times it did well. Remember, many posters have hinted in varied ways that people will only vote for a gold BJP candidate (silver will not do) and will vote for $hit (or bronze or dirt) INC candidate? Reason is simple. If there is an issue (like Shri RJB) movement, and the candidates are above petty castesism (i.e. it is Gold), people who would other wise vote for caste or local issue will rise over that and choose that candidate. Whenever BJP goes back to being casteist (i.e. not Gold, like in 2004 and 2009), the same people who do not belong to the caste combo in favor (by BJP) that time, will not vote for it. The EBC and OBC and BC and SC castes that voted for you, will not vote if you support a narrow caste rainbow, they will rather go to their individual champion.
This time the opportunity is there, I do not like Namo being removed from heading the election committee, if they go for Hindu consolidation (that should reflect in ticket distribution and regional leader attitude), people will vote accordingly. BJP then again can get 36%-40% votes in UP and similar % in Vihara.
rgds,
fanne

vineetmehta · Post by **vineetmehta** » 02 Oct 2013 19:10

today i visited a slum near our locality with about 1600 votes. this location is in Delhi North West. i met the Pradhan (a lady) of the slum to understand why everyone was boarding the bus to visit Modi rally on 29th.

she shared the whole story starting from 1980 when the slum was established. till last ~10 yrs they were die hard congress people, however, now they are die hard BJP people. In brief, the local congress Parshad/MLA started treating them as second class citizens and was more interested to earn money from rich people. gave no respect to slum people. however, BJP guy is helping them by going out of the way. the slum people have very small demands like hygiene, admissions in school, and sometimes employment related.

she shared that they are not concerned about Modi, we know the local leader and will give vote to anyone as recommended by the local BJP guy. she shared that another nearby slum who has more population will also vote BJP.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 02 Oct 2013 19:57

Vineet, thanks for the input. Seva Bharti use to work great and Delhi slum was with BJP. From 1998-1999 with power, less people (decent people) started taking interest in Slums, BJP govt did not give them many illegal decisions to slum (like making them legal, when the land belongs to say forest department), Congress gave them money and liquor. This section has been responsible for big time cong Win. BJP has to do something about it. Few local leader here and there cannot make a big difference.

disha · Post by **disha** » 04 Oct 2013 07:34

vineetmehta wrote:today i visited a slum near our locality with about 1600 votes. this location is in Delhi North West. i met the Pradhan (a lady) of the slum to understand why everyone was boarding the bus to visit Modi rally on 29th.

she shared the whole story starting from 1980 when the slum was established. till last ~10 yrs they were die hard congress people, however, now they are die hard BJP people. In brief, the local congress Parshad/MLA started treating them as second class citizens and was more interested to earn money from rich people. gave no respect to slum people. however, BJP guy is helping them by going out of the way. the slum people have very small demands like hygiene, admissions in school, and sometimes employment related.

she shared that they are not concerned about Modi, we know the local leader and will give vote to anyone as recommended by the local BJP guy. she shared that another nearby slum who has more population will also vote BJP.

Vineet'ji this is great input. Will daaru-cash or dadagiri impact in this community? CongIs are past masters at this.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 04 Oct 2013 16:15

ELECTIONS process FOR 5 STATES STARTED.