Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 04 Oct 2013 18:39

Does it affect center offering freebies? election commission must be strict on ruling party.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 04 Oct 2013 19:54

Timesnow C-voter poll for Delhi. AAP gains 5% vote share. Khujliwal now 6% ahead of Goel who looks like he is permanently on ganja.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 04 Oct 2013 20:01

give the detail numbers please

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 04 Oct 2013 20:45

INC 26, BJP 29, AAP 11, OTH 4. SD 34%, Khujli 23%, Ganja 17%. I think Goel should be discarded ASAP.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 04 Oct 2013 21:40

Goel is chamcha of d4. He will not go easily. He has to be pushed out. After 3 defeats if u don't change losers, u deserve to lose 4th time. But d4 will continue to support him. May be time to kick d4 out of bjp.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 05 Oct 2013 07:53

This guy is PERFECT candidate. Unlike Kiran Bedi, he have some experience and unlike VG he is not career politician.

Name Dr. Harsh Vardhan
Name of the Party Bhartiya Janta Party
No and Name of the Assembly Constituency AC-60, Krishna Nagar
Father’s Name Late Sh. O.P Goyal
Mother’s Name Smt. Sneh lata
Date of Birth 13-12-1954
Place of Birth Delhi
Marital Status Married
Date of Marriage ---
Spouse’s Name Smt. Nutan
Children 1 Daughter and 2 Son
Educational Qualifications MBBS, MS (ENT)

Has been member of RSS for the last 35 years and active worker of BJP, was general secretary and also president Delhi Medical Association, After having been elected as member to the first Delhi Legislative Assembly in 1993 on the basis of meritorious medical experience was inducted into the cabinet as Health and Law Minister in the Delhi government in the same year later in 1996 became Education Minister also and relinquished the office in 1998. In capacity of the Health Minister launched the Polio Eradication Plan in Oct-1994. Taking clue from the success of the Programme, the Union Ministry of Health adopted the same as a National Programme For the first time in History of the Nation as Minister of Health introduced the Delhi Prohibition of smoking and non smokers health protection bill which was eventually adopted by the house in 1996. This attempt received worldwide acclaim and for this historic effort he received WHO’s Commendation Medal in May-1998, at a Ceremony held in Rio-De-Janeiro Brazil. Has also been recipient of various national & international awards and fellowship from various national and international organizations of repute such as Polio Eradication Champion Award fellow of Polypathy. Paul Harris fellowship, IMA special award of appreciation. Re-elected to Second Legislative Assembly in general election held in Nov-1998, Re-elected MLA in 2003 and in 2008 in 4th Delhi Legislative Assembly.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Oct 2013 07:57

Can some one put up Mr Goel's biodata also?

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 05 Oct 2013 08:01

ramana wrote:Can some one put up Mr Goel's biodata also?

From wikipedia :-

Vijay Goel (born 4 January 1954) is an Indian politician affiliated with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He became president of its organisation in Delhi in February 2013.
A former Delhi University Students' Union president and an alumnus of Shri Ram College of Commerce. He has been the Member of Parliament for the 11th, 12th and 13th Lok Sabha representing the Sadar and Chandni Chowk constituencies of Delhi. He also served as the Union Minister of State of Labour, Parliamentary Affairs, Statistics & Programme Implementation and Youth Affairs & Sports in the National Democratic Alliance (India) government until 2004.

Early and personal life

Vijay Goel was born to former Delhi Vidhan Sabha Speaker and BJP member Charti Lal Goel and Basanti Devi on 4 January 1954. He has an M.Com. degree from Shri Ram College of Commerce and a LL.B. degree from the University of Delhi. He was a member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and was jailed during Emergency in India. After his release from jail, Goel became president of Delhi University Students' Union in 1977 as a candidate of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad. He married Preeti Goel, a professor at the University of Delhi, on 8 March 1985. The couple have a son and a daughter.

Goel was the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) treasurer in 1974-1975. He says that he exposed corruption concerning fake certificates that was then operating at the university.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 05 Oct 2013 08:10

In fact, BJP should go with both.

Harshavardhan as CM and Kiran Bedi as Dy. CM. That would counter Kejriwals's "honest IRS officer" image.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Oct 2013 08:16

Well I am yet to meet an Honest IRS Officer. If Congis want something to stick on Kejriwal, by this time it would have done. AAP is counterpoised to BJP and not INC. Anti-incumbency votes , which generally goes to next party in opposition, would go to AAP. People must be familiar with the trick of fielding candidates from the caste , whose votes might otherwise decide the outcome, in order to split the voters favourable to opposite candidates. Its the same game with different colours.

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 05 Oct 2013 09:59

ok newbie political virgin prediction, but political virgin who has watched all the screwups of 2004 and 2009 and followed the news a bit :
I am counting of a medium size wavelet for modi, with a little pessimistic mindset and considering that the screwups in AP, karnatak etc will give less seats to BJP. Medium size wavelet in UP = 30 seats

State Total number of seats : seats BJP can win ( +- difference from 2009)
AP (T+SA) 42 : 3 (+3)
Arunachal Pradesh 2 : 0
Assam : 14 : 8 (+4)
Bihar : 40 : 20 (+8)
Chattisgarh 11 : 8 (-2)
Goa 2 : 2 (+1)
Gujrat : 26 : 20 (+5)
Haryana : 10 : 4 ( + 4)
J&K 6 : 2 (+2)
Jharkhand 14 : 8 (+0)
Karnatak 28 : 15 (-4)
Kerala 20 : 1 (+1)
MP 29 : 20 (+4)
Mah 48 : 30 (+10)
Manipur / Nagaland / Mizoram / Meghalay 6 : 0 (+0)
Orissa 21 : 0 : (+0)
Punjab 13 : 8 (+3)
Rajasthan 25 : 20 (+16)
Sikkim 1 : 0
Tamil Nadu 39 : 1 (+1)
UP 80 : 30 (+20)
Uttarakhand 5 : 2 (+2)
West Bangal 42 : 0 (+0)
Delhi 7 : 4 (+4)

Union territories : 3 (+0) Daman / Dadra and nagar haveli)
/ Andamans

Total : 221
good enough

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 05 Oct 2013 16:37

Muppalla wrote:Congress is putting a SoS type desperate rules on Modi visiting UP. They just want to find one or other pretexts to stop Modi visiting UP.

October 02 message. In democracy it is these kind of nautanki that polarize voters. Rest is plain BS.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Oct 2013 17:29

Amol.D wrote:ok newbie political virgin prediction, but political virgin who has watched all the screwups of 2004 and 2009 and followed the news a bit :
I am counting of a medium size wavelet for modi, with a little pessimistic mindset and considering that the screwups in AP, karnatak etc will give less seats to BJP. Medium size wavelet in UP = 30 seats

State Total number of seats : seats BJP can win ( +- difference from 2009)
AP (T+SA) 42 : 3 (+3)
Arunachal Pradesh 2 : 0
Assam : 14 : 8 (+4)
Bihar : 40 : 20 (+8)
Chattisgarh 11 : 8 (-2)
Goa 2 : 2 (+1)
Gujrat : 26 : 20 (+5)
Haryana : 10 : 4 ( + 4)
J&K 6 : 2 (+2)
Jharkhand 14 : 8 (+0)
Karnatak 28 : 15 (-4)
Kerala 20 : 1 (+1)
MP 29 : 20 (+4)
Mah 48 : 30 (+10)
Manipur / Nagaland / Mizoram / Meghalay 6 : 0 (+0)
Orissa 21 : 0 : (+0)
Punjab 13 : 8 (+3)
Rajasthan 25 : 20 (+16)
Sikkim 1 : 0
Tamil Nadu 39 : 1 (+1)
UP 80 : 30 (+20)
Uttarakhand 5 : 2 (+2)
West Bangal 42 : 0 (+0)
Delhi 7 : 4 (+4)

Union territories : 3 (+0) Daman / Dadra and nagar haveli)
/ Andamans

Total : 221
good enough

Well, I see UP and BH as problem areas. They have to crack this LS then UP+BH has to be 80% of total seats i.e. 96.
JH also they need to get one or two extra. KT is another area they should tray maximise, Don't now if they can do it in OR, WB and AP.

272+ will then be doable.

On the flip side they should try to minimise congi seats in states where congis are strong or likely to have bulk of seats. And here TL+SA holds the key.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Oct 2013 19:21

And this news is relevant here as well. CBI has not taken much effort on this fron nor BJP took interest during the period it was in power and had coalition arrangement with NiKu. Using this card is sure to drive NiKu into Congi lap and if and when BJP comes to power this will be touted as vengeance for breaking up the coalition. BH Electorate is not likely to be much impressed with this. They are quite happy with Laloo conviction. That fellow ruined BH anyway.

BJP seeks prosecution of Nitish Kumar in fodder scam

Buoyed by the conviction of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav in a fodder scam case, BJP today mounted an attack on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and senior JD(U) leader Shivanand Tiwari demanding their prosecution in the same case.

BJP senior leader and former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi, who was the original petitioner in Patna high court in the fodder scam in 1990s, alleged that Kumar and Tiwari had taken money from a fodder scam accused late Shyam Bihari Sinha in the 1990s through his pointsman.

"Sinha, an animal husbandry department (AHD) official then and an accused in the fodder scam, had recorded a confessional statement before the police under section 161 of CrPC claiming that he had through one Umesh Singh paid Rs one crore to then Samata Party leader Nitish Kumar in 1994-95 after the latter had demanded some money to defray the expenses of the assembly elections in March 1995," he told reporters.

In the same confessional statement, Sinha had told the police that he had paid Rs 30 lakh to Rs 35 lakh to Shivanand Tiwari, then a Janata Dal leader, through Tripurari Mohan Prasad after Tiwari had demanded Rs 50 lakh from him for not proceeding with filing a petition in high court seeking a probe in the irregularities in the AHD, he said quoting from the annexure of the confessional statement by Sinha.

Modi said Sinha and other accused persons in the fodder scam had confessed to paying bribes of lakhs of rupees to Tiwari on several other occasion in the 1990s in lieu of his political benevolence, Modi said.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Oct 2013 22:18

I had not been following the developments in Odisha. This bit seems interesting. Any idea why Patnaik was expelled from the party? And how can BJP benefit from it?

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/05/c ... 42223.html

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 06 Oct 2013 01:41

nageshks wrote:I had not been following the developments in Odisha. This bit seems interesting. Any idea why Patnaik was expelled from the party? And how can BJP benefit from it?

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/05/c ... 42223.html

soumya Patnaik is the Son In Law of JB Patnaik(ex Con. CM ). He is also related to the previous PCC Chief (Niranjan Patnaik). Basically it's a case of internal tug of war (current PCC Chief and Soumya belong to different camps) . BTW, he was also part of the state BJP for while during the late 90's.
As far as impact is considered, do n't think this will have much impact. BJD recently won 49 out of 66 urban local bodies. BJP was reduced from 11 to 2 and Con. won 11. As of now, neither BJP nor Congress have a leader of stature , who can oppose Naveen.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 06 Oct 2013 02:11

debadutta wrote:
nageshks wrote:I had not been following the developments in Odisha. This bit seems interesting. Any idea why Patnaik was expelled from the party? And how can BJP benefit from it?

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/05/c ... 42223.html
soumya Patnaik is the Son In Law of JB Patnaik(ex Con. CM ). He is also related to the previous PCC Chief (Niranjan Patnaik). Basically it's a case of internal tug of war (current PCC Chief and Soumya belong to different camps) . BTW, he was also part of the state BJP for while during the late 90's.
As far as impact is considered, do n't think this will have much impact. BJD recently won 49 out of 66 urban local bodies. BJP was reduced from 11 to 2 and Con. won 11. As of now, neither BJP nor Congress have a leader of stature , who can oppose Naveen.

Is it the case of brown Sahibs being replaced by Rajmata's co-religionists ?

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 06 Oct 2013 04:57

i think you can find a parallel in BJP's status in Odisha and AP. In the Late 90's , they were making rapid inroads in both AP and Odisha. However in order to acquire power quickly, they joined hands with BJD in Odisha and TDesam in AP . Both places their Partners gained at the expense of BJP.

Last election, BJP still had a ~16% voteshare , but it is fast dwindling. State BJP had no leader and seems confused as to how to deal with BJD. Guess they are still thinking that they may have to rely on BJD to form the Govt in center.

BTW one interesting point to note is that in the recent local bodies elections, BJD and BJP joined hands in several councils to keep congress out power.

As many posters have already pointed out, i also believe that if BJP gets 180/190 seats then suddenly other parties like BJD etc. will start finding common ground with them.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 06 Oct 2013 05:29

Guys - the BJP seems to have published a black paper on Rajasthan Congress

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/05/b ... 42075.html

Does anyone know if it is available online? If yes, where? I did a cursory search of both BJP and BJP-Rajasthan websites, but did not find them. Would be glad if someone has a link.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 06 Oct 2013 07:09

Amol.D wrote:ok newbie political virgin prediction, but political virgin who has watched all the screwups of 2004 and 2009 and followed the news a bit :
I am counting of a medium size wavelet for modi, with a little pessimistic mindset and considering that the screwups in AP, karnatak etc will give less seats to BJP. Medium size wavelet in UP = 30 seats

State Total number of seats : seats BJP can win ( +- difference from 2009)
AP (T+SA) 42 : 3 (+3)
Arunachal Pradesh 2 : 0
Assam : 14 : 8 (+4)
Bihar : 40 : 20 (+8)
Chattisgarh 11 : 8 (-2)
Goa 2 : 2 (+1)
Gujrat : 26 : 20 (+5)
Haryana : 10 : 4 ( + 4)
J&K 6 : 2 (+2)
Jharkhand 14 : 8 (+0)
Karnatak 28 : 15 (-4)
Kerala 20 : 1 (+1)
MP 29 : 20 (+4)
Mah 48 : 30 (+10)
Manipur / Nagaland / Mizoram / Meghalay 6 : 0 (+0)
Orissa 21 : 0 : (+0)
Punjab 13 : 8 (+3)
Rajasthan 25 : 20 (+16)
Sikkim 1 : 0
Tamil Nadu 39 : 1 (+1)
UP 80 : 30 (+20)
Uttarakhand 5 : 2 (+2)
West Bangal 42 : 0 (+0)
Delhi 7 : 4 (+4)

Union territories : 3 (+0) Daman / Dadra and nagar haveli)
/ Andamans

Total : 221
good enough

Assam: u gave way too much, cong still holds the cards there.
Haryana: despite all alliances, i think cong will sweep
J&K: at best one seat if jaitley contests
Jharkhand: BJP will be routed this time even if they get marandi on board. it is 2004 redux here, marandi was with the, still cong+jmm swept.
Kerala and TN: they will get 0.

So you gave them: 4+2+1+5+2=14 seats extra

MP: They will get 23
Uttaranchal: They will get 4.

this will give above 5 seats more than ur prediction.

So net-net about 9-10 seats lesser. But again 15 in karnataka only if yeddy is back. If MNS-SS-BJP-RPI go together in maha they can get 5-6 seats more.

So overall even they hit close to 215. They will need just 60 odd seats to form govt. They get that from JJ and Naveen (he can say whatever he wants now, but will finally chug along).

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 06 Oct 2013 07:40

^ yea thats a more objective look, i went overboard in assam a bit cause of the anti bangladeshi sentiments helping the BJP in hopefully in an substantial way this time. but even 215, heck 200 is good enough. p.s. you think even with the crowds seen in rewari, cong will still sweep haryana? i gave some seats there with the response to the rally in mind

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Oct 2013 07:52

Amol.D wrote:^ yea thats a more objective look, i went overboard in assam a bit cause of the anti bangladeshi sentiments helping the BJP in hopefully in an substantial way this time. but even 215, heck 200 is good enough. p.s. you think even with the crowds seen in rewari, cong will still sweep haryana? i gave some seats there with the response to the rally in mind

In TN and Kerala they get zero. In AP they get zero (though there are chances of positive turn). In Punjab congress will comeback impressively. Put it to three. In Haryana it will be 50-50 split if the coalition works. If no coalition it will be 1 seat.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 06 Oct 2013 08:19

Muppalla wrote:
Amol.D wrote:^ yea thats a more objective look, i went overboard in assam a bit cause of the anti bangladeshi sentiments helping the BJP in hopefully in an substantial way this time. but even 215, heck 200 is good enough. p.s. you think even with the crowds seen in rewari, cong will still sweep haryana? i gave some seats there with the response to the rally in mind
In TN and Kerala they get zero. In AP they get zero (though there are chances of positive turn). In Punjab congress will comeback impressively. Put it to three. In Haryana it will be 50-50 split if the coalition works. If no coalition it will be 1 seat.

Muppalla ji,

in punjab there is nothing for congress to come back impressively. They have already maxed out in LS 2009. They swept it. They cant repeat it again. They will lose some seats.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Oct 2013 08:21

Badal scraped through barely in assembly elections. Akalis are not popular and the anti-incumbency will hit BJP. I am not so sure about Modi magic in Punjab.

niran · Post by **niran** » 06 Oct 2013 09:26

yesterday Ramgopal Yadav unkil of makhi and birader of Moolaayam singh yadav toured Muzzafar Nagar riot affected areas the plan was to visit
shelters where mussalman population are still sheltered after so many weeks, there he boasted that all will be well since he is there now
and herr PWD Mantri to show off his clout and power went to a Jat mohalla in a nearby village, CID UP had reported that the village had been cleansed of communal types hence safe to visit, there village ladies gheraoed herr mantri and demanded a CBI inquiry on the role of sapa into the riots in the lines similar to the investigation conducted post 2002 in Gujarat this ruffled herr mantriji and in a true lathmaar goon fashion said

mai tow mantri hoon, CBI mera kya ukhaad lega

i am a minister, what can CBI do against me

then the ladies supposedly began their NaMo lao desh bachao chant while bring out few brooms herr mntri and his entourage down hill skied in a jiffy, all journos present were advised to onree print or telecast positives NEWS, or else...... to maintain piss onree, and all those who thought otherwise should be ashamed of themselves.

the current reading is Bhajapa will get 60+ seats in UP and the tally will increase if sapa continued with their denial tactics of refusinf a rally of NaMo in UP bhajapa cadres were seen hard pressed to suppress their laughter when ADM Cawnpore denied the third ground for Bhajapa hunkar rally.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Oct 2013 09:30

niran wrote:the current reading is Bhajapa will get 60+ seats in UP and the tally will increase if sapa continued with their denial tactics of refusinf a rally of NaMo in UP bhajapa cadres were seen hard pressed to suppress their laughter when ADM Cawnpore denied the third ground for Bhajapa hunkar rally.

I really hope this comes true and take away the importance of AP atleast this time for God sake.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 06 Oct 2013 09:53

Muppalla wrote:Badal scraped through barely in assembly elections. Akalis are not popular and the anti-incumbency will hit BJP. I am not so sure about Modi magic in Punjab.

Muppalla ji, 68 vs 46 seats is pretty comprehensive, don't you think? Votes polled is also 42% vs 40%. 2-3% makes all the difference in winning and losing. SAD single handedly beat Congress 56 vs 46 inspite of giving 23 out of 117 seats to BJP due seat sharing. Why the R+D?

Added later: the anti-sikh riots and Tytler being given clean chit may cause a backlash in Punjab.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Oct 2013 09:58

Just two percent more for Akalis. What ever you hear about Punjab, you always hear about chota Badal's corruption. What is the guarantee that won't tilt. A negative swing of 2% is enough to change the scale in a straight contest. Added to that take a worst case scenario of national level BSP+INC. BSP had a chunk of votes in Punjab and add them to INC and you will see the diff. Note that Punjab is one of the states where percentage of SCs to rest is very high.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 06 Oct 2013 11:15

niran wrote:yesterday Ramgopal Yadav unkil of makhi and birader of Moolaayam singh yadav toured Muzzafar Nagar riot affected areas the plan was to visit
shelters where mussalman population are still sheltered after so many weeks, there he boasted that all will be well since he is there now
and herr PWD Mantri to show off his clout and power went to a Jat mohalla in a nearby village, CID UP had reported that the village had been cleansed of communal types hence safe to visit, there village ladies gheraoed herr mantri and demanded a CBI inquiry on the role of sapa into the riots in the lines similar to the investigation conducted post 2002 in Gujarat this ruffled herr mantriji and in a true lathmaar goon fashion said
mai tow mantri hoon, CBI mera kya ukhaad lega
i am a minister, what can CBI do against me

then the ladies supposedly began their NaMo lao desh bachao chant while bring out few brooms herr mntri and his entourage down hill skied in a jiffy, all journos present were advised to onree print or telecast positives NEWS, or else...... to maintain piss onree, and all those who thought otherwise should be ashamed of themselves.

the current reading is Bhajapa will get 60+ seats in UP and the tally will increase if sapa continued with their denial tactics of refusinf a rally of NaMo in UP bhajapa cadres were seen hard pressed to suppress their laughter when ADM Cawnpore denied the third ground for Bhajapa hunkar rally.

That is my feeling as well. In cold calculation BJP certainly needs to get 60+ to get to 272+ and Bihar needs to be wrapped up. Together is BJP gets around 96 , on account of NaMo , UPA would be history.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 06 Oct 2013 11:18

UP is a vast state with may different sub-currents. Western UP is polatized but has almost 40% Muslim in pockets. If they all vote en-bloc against Modi it will be hard for Modi unless he can cross caste boundaries.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 06 Oct 2013 11:23

If there is wave then caste boundaries will be crossed. Else normal performance does not mean much for BJP. NaMo factor has to cross caste boundaries to get beyond 182 .

niran · Post by **niran** » 06 Oct 2013 11:28

chaanakya wrote:If there is wave then caste boundaries will be crossed. Else normal performance does not mean much for BJP. NaMo factor has to cross caste boundaries to get beyond 182 .

Correct, saar, this time it is different, this time there is a wave, the NaMo wave and the wave has broken all walls crossed all boundaries.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 06 Oct 2013 11:30

niran wrote:
chaanakya wrote:If there is wave then caste boundaries will be crossed. Else normal performance does not mean much for BJP. NaMo factor has to cross caste boundaries to get beyond 182 .
Correct, saar, this time it is different, this time there is a wave, the NaMo wave and the wave has broken all walls crossed all boundaries.

heard the same in 2009 as well. I see a wave only on the net, not on the ground.

All it tells me is that some people have not seen a wave.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 06 Oct 2013 13:42

UP is going to vote beyond caste boundaries.SC, OBC and FC all shall vote for BJP. I see a clean sweep for BJPin UP

niran · Post by **niran** » 06 Oct 2013 15:05

Virupaksha wrote:
niran wrote: heard the same in 2009 as well. I see a wave only on the net, not on the ground.

All it tells me is that some people have not seen a wave.

in 2009 the wave was in the making when kangrez began their you pee yeah under Baba thingy
in reply bhajapa announced with great pomp and show shree advani as their PM candidate and what did he do, he mumbled about Kala dhan boarded his rath and went on his rath yatra, no vision no how will Bharat progress under bhajapa when a lowly cadres goes to a household in his mohalla he needs something to say to convince the electorate demoralized cadres ain't gona get you votes saar contrast
that with current day situation the cadres are happy they got NaMo, kamgrez have provided mucho masala to get themselves cooked and Sam junta has a hero with proper track record to rally behind

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 06 Oct 2013 15:58

In 2004, AVB was old man who could hardly walk. He got voted out. In 2009, there was a Congress wave as the UPA I was basically a left controlled admin which could not do much reforms and country sank deeper into problem to which the electorate gave the mandate to congress in UPA II and that also did not do much good to the life of the people and not to mention that a old fumbling leader being projected for BJP. So now there are two alternatives - third front or a strong leader like NAMO. Third front was looking good till NAMO was made the PM candidate and now the only real alternative is NAMO with a number of so called third front - who are actually anti -congress - aligning with NAMO. The electorate has been looking for A leader who could provide good governance and NAMO is the choice now and hence the wave. There is indeed a wave this time! But NAMO must stick to good governance as top priority.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 06 Oct 2013 16:10

Chinmayanand wrote:UP is going to vote beyond caste boundaries.SC, OBC and FC all shall vote for BJP. I see a clean sweep for BJPin UP

One clean sweep in UP will take INC back for 15 years. And grassroot workers of BJP are happy as niran pointed out. But for them, NaMo for PM announcement would not have come. So they would try very hard to bring voters for NaMo

munna · Post by **munna** » 06 Oct 2013 18:17

Muppalla wrote:Badal scraped through barely in assembly elections. Akalis are not popular and the anti-incumbency will hit BJP. I am not so sure about Modi magic in Punjab.

Punjab is all balle balle for Congress, in fact if not for Modi this is clearly a case for 13-0. BJP and RSS cadres are indulging in open loot via its ministers and are quietly watching the marginalization of urban vote bank by Sukhbir. The permier Municipal Corporations are witnessing open rebellion by employees and nothing is sacred anymore. I am attaching a copy of story that appeared in Punjab Kesari this Friday. The Punjab BJP cabal has sidelined Sidhu, Kalia and Khanna on behest of Akalis, Modi magic is all that stands between complete doom and NDA in Punjab. One cannot win without local mass leaders.

http://epaper.punjabkesari.in/epaperima ... 431206.JPG

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 06 Oct 2013 19:08

Just hoping there is no divide-n-rule hand there that will make maximum out of anything real or perceived.

Corruption again, and few would know how important 272 will be it is looks like this election. Con race never minds to fill space.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 07 Oct 2013 19:29

More bad news?

http://www.firstpost.com/india/chhattis ... 57523.html

Raipur: Ahead of the two-phase assembly elections in Chhattisgarh next month, the BJP has a new problem on hand. The Scheduled Caste voters are gradually drifting away from the party. It has reason to worry. The SCs constitute 12 percent of the state’s population of 2.5 crore and 10 out of 90 assembly seats are reserved for them. However, they have a significant presence in over 50 constituencies. If they vote in a strategic manner, they could provide a decisive tilt to the election results. In the elections of 2008, the BJP had won five out of the 10 SC seats. The Congress had got four with the solitary seat going to the BSP. It would be wrong to see the significance of Scheduled Casts votes only through the prism of the reserved seats though. The party has managed to displease the Satnami community, which constitutes about 65 percent of the SCs and wield considerable electoral influence beyond its geographical location, the plains of the Mahanadi. And Congress’ Ajit Jogi is using the discontent to the hilt. What compounds the BJP’s problem is the weakening hold of the BSP on the Scheduled Caste community. The party kept the SC votes away from the Congress. Before we go into the present political equations, here’s the back story of the SC community in the state. Chhattisgarh has a social history marked by a number of socio-religious movements initiated by sects such as the Satnam Panth, the Kabir Panth and the Raidasis. Numerically the strongest among them, the Satnam panth emerged by incorporating a major section of the dalits in the second decade of the nineteenth century, led by Guru Ghasidas. The community constituted a little less than one sixth of the total population of Chhattisgarh. But since the spread was essentially confined to the plains of the river Mahanadi in the middle third of the state, the impact their density made on the social scene was much stronger than the numbers suggest. Reuters What compounds the BJP’s problem is the weakening hold of the BSP on the Scheduled Caste community. Reuters In the early decades of the 20th century the followers of Satnami sect got involved in the freedom movement. The Guru led them to the path of Mahatma Gandhi. Immediately after independence, Mini Mata became the member of the Lok Sabha on a Congress ticket winning a by-election following the death of her husband Agam Das, the then Guru and a descendant of Ghasi Das. Mini Mata went on to become an icon of the Satnami politics. The political leadership of the community remained firmly with the Guru family and through them with the Congress even after the death of Mini Mata in an air crash in 1972. Her descendants, however, failed to keep the followers together. Social and economic changes made members of the community look for other options. This was the time, in early 1980s, when Kanshi Ram entered Chhattisgarh with his formula-DS4 (Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti) and caught the imagination of the young among the community. The seeds of the Bahujan Samaj movement were sown in the plains of Mahanadi in Chhattisgarh. It is no coincidence that Kanshi Ram, the founder of the BSP and the mentor of Mayawati, chose this part of the then Madhya Pradesh to venture into electoral politics and fought the first election of his career in 1984 from Janjgir Lok Sabha constituency in Chhattisgarh. The Congress’s loss was BJP’s gain. The consolidation of the BSP made a dent in the hitherto Congress vote bank and directly helped the BJP increase its share of seats in the 1990s. Though BSP generally failed to hold on to its herd of 2-3 MLAs it did manage to alter the results in many more constituencies, to the discomfort mainly of the Congress. In the last five years or so the BSP has seen the exit of its founder member and main organiser in the state, Dau Ram Ratnakar, from the party. Mayawati loosing clout (and access to funds) in UP didn’t help the party. The delimitation of seats in 2008 also disturbed the electoral arithmetic of the BSP in many Satnami dominated constituencies. The hope amongst the dalit youth of the BSP vehicle ever making it to the goalpost of power kept receding. The election of 2008 significantly saw a substantial section of the community vote returning to the Congress. This, however, is not the only worry for the BJP. After the creation of the new state, the proportion of various communities in the total population changed. This resulted in a new government directive reducing the reservation limit for the SCs in the government jobs from 16% to 12%. It has now snowballed into the single most important factor for the SCs to gather under various social and political umbrellas away from the BJP. The Congress lost no time in promising a return to the 16% level if voted to power. The voice of the votaries of the BJP present within the community has turned feeble at a time crucial for their party. The dalits in the state have failed to throw a leader from within the community. Arjun Singh was the first leader of any political party to identify an opportunity. It was he who resurrected Guru Ghasi Das amongst the non-Satnamis during mid 1980s, around the time when the Guru’s descendants had started frittering away the inherited clout and hold over the community. Ajit Jogi carried the trend forward and focused in his attempts to fill in this slot of community leadership after he took over as Chief Minister in 2000. A series of community fairs were organised and schemes launched targeting the SCs in his three year reign. He made an announcement of erecting a tower “taller than the Qutub Meenar” at the Girodhpuri, the birth place of Guru Ghasidas. The construction of the 77 meter high ‘Jait Khambh’ did start and got completed during the BJP rule but by then the issue of reservation had come to the fore and the BJP ministers were not allowed entry to the Girodhpuri when a ceremonial inauguration was attempted by the government.