Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Oct 2013 06:18

I see reports that it is now officially the strongest storm ever measured in the Indian Ocean.

Below the storm’s core as it approaches the coastline.

This is the view from India’s Kalpana weather satellite:

Also:
Cyclone Phailin is barreling towards one of India’s most volatile areas

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 12 Oct 2013 06:45

Tracking the Cyclone : http://google.org/crisismap/2013-phailin

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Oct 2013 07:09

Thanx for that nawabs.
Current wind speed just 50 km out to sea is 145 knots. That is simply incredible.
We should keep an eye on it. These cyclones have a nasty tendency to meander along the coast.

Looks like a direct strike on Brahmapur. Casualties likely.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Oct 2013 07:17

From Vizag to our installations in Orissa,missile launching sites will all be vulnerable to this powerhouse of nature.I was in Vizag not too long ago and the vulnerability of the buildings along the coastal road is enormous ,where the depth of beach is a pittance ,barely 9m+ deep,when compared with Madras' famous Marina Beach hundreds of metres deep.The only silver lining is that there has been adequate time to warn and evacuate those most endangered by its route.The entire coastal belt from N.AP to Orissa is going to bear the brunt of the cyclone.One prays for the safety of those at risk.

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Oct 2013 07:19

It is officially a CAT 5 Cyclone now on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Index.

Of course per IMD it is now a super-cyclone. Given the size and the intensity this is literally Mahisasura mardini coming our way.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Oct 2013 07:21

BTW this is the central control room number for Odisha.
Please there is no Orissa in India, use the correct name.

Helpline number: Odisha Central Control Room 0674-2534177

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 12 Oct 2013 07:36

Vizag's DM speaking on preparations.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 12 Oct 2013 07:44

Here is some evidence of rudimentary preparations but much more can and need to be done.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 08:01

This is pretty neat. AP govt's shelter information with occupied status:

http://disastermanagement.ap.gov.in/web ... elters.htm

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 12 Oct 2013 08:36

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2549

1999 Odisha Cyclone That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. The latest storm surge forecast from IMD predicts a peak surge under 3', but this is much too low, considering Phailin's recent round of rapid intensification. Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing great destruction, as did the rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone. More than 2,000 of the deaths from that storm occurred due to fresh water flooding in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 12 Oct 2013 08:50

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 213web.txt

JTWC :

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC
WALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A
112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN
RING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND THIS STR, MAKING LANDFALL
NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ERC MAY HAMPER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 12, A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LAND
INTERACTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH MORE RAPID EROSION AFTER
LANDFALL, LEADING TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 12 Oct 2013 08:55

12 Oct 2013
1051 :
Collector SKLM - Cyclone Operations - 24 Police Wireless sets - 19 Mobiles, 3 Vehicles and 2 stationary - have been provided by SP, Sklm to all Cyclone Special Officers, RDOs, SEa etc to Maintain Microwave Communuication
12 Oct 2013
1051 :
ESTABLISHMENTOF ANIMAL RELIEF CAMPS. -- All Camps and Sheep and goat within 5 km of Coastal Areas to be brought out to Animal Camps located beyond 5 km in order to save animal deaths and subsequent complications. Message to JD AH SKLM, AD AH SKLM, - Depute additional VAS and even AD AHs to all 11 coastal Mandals for this activity. One team permanently at Baruva Gosala for 3 days. -- Collector, Srikakulam
12 Oct 2013
1051 :
THE FOLLOWING NGOs HAVE BEEN DEPUTED TO VARIUOS MANDALS TO ASSIST THE CYCLONE RELIEF OPERATIONS FROM 12th ONWARDS FOR 3 DAYs 1. ICHAPURAM - RED CROSS 2. KAVITY - ARTS, GUEST 3. SOMPETA - SATYA SAI 4. VAJRAPUKOTTURU - BREDS 5. SANTHABOMMALI - NYK, COLLECTOR, SRIKAKULAM
11 Oct 2013
1051 :
Message to Departments from Collector, Srikakulam - Most Urgent -- DMHO and SPHOs Ensure essential medicines in all the relief camps - SE RWS , EEs, DPO - Ensure chlorination facility for all the water tankers stationed at the Relief Camps.
11 Oct 2013
1051 :
Damage expected. 1. Huge damage to kutcha house, bunks. 2. Uprooting of power and communication lines. 3. Disruption of traffic. 4. Flooding of culverts, bridges, low lyinbg ares and escape routes. Action required - 1. Roadside kutcha bunks, tea and pan shops to cllose. 2. People to stay indoors from 11th afternoon till 13th Morning. 3. Evacuate of people staying within 5 km of coast. 4. VRO and PS to maintain HQ and do tomtom -- Collector, Srikakulam

http://www.srikakulamcollectorate.com/A ... eport.aspx

Some NGOs currently operating in the area.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Oct 2013 09:06

nawabs wrote:

The elevation map is very instructive. Phailin seem to be headed on a more southerly point of landfall, with a lot of elevation gain with 1km or more of the coast, at least higher than the storm surge. This would hopefully serve to absorb most of the energy of the storm surge. In comparison, the 1999 cyclone struck right in the middle of the shallow basin. The only well known town I can see in the vicinity on that map is Srikakulam. What is the elevation profile of that town like ? Does it abut the coast ? Are large parts located at at least 10-20m elevation ?

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 09:57

Sorry to overload with gifs but this looks menacing

From https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus

Even though Cyclone #Phailin's intensity has likely peaked as arguably the strongest ever to face India -- storm surge will be catastrophic.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Oct 2013 09:58

There will not be much of a storm surge at Srikakulam. It is 150 km south of the eye. The elevation map is misleading. The problem in 1999 was the flood waters back flooded through the river channels swamping dwellings and towns built near them. This when rain is flooding those same rivers.

JTWC is estimating maximum wave height at 56feet! The south side of Brahmapur is 22 feet ASL.

My real fear is that this is striking India in the evening. So after dark for a 12 hour period there will be black out when the folks will be helpless.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Sigh! I fear the casualties will be severe. Even Gopalpur has not been evacuated. Folks just don't want to leave.

Cyclone Phailin: 'Won't leave, we have full faith in God'

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/c ... god/294055

Ayega tho Bhagwan leke jayega...

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 10:08

I am a little bit skeptical about the interview in the above video, with the caveat that I am no way near the place nor understand what is going on in their mind. My theory is possession in 9/10th of the law, they don't want to abandon their houses.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Oct 2013 10:13

PHAILIN Current Status, Tracking and update..
http://www.cyclocane.com/phailin-storm-tracker/

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 12 Oct 2013 10:25

Google's Person Finder, - allows individuals to post and search for the status of relatives or friends affected by a disaster, has been set up for cyclone Phailin.

http://google.org/personfinder/2013-phailin/

(You can click on 'I am looking for someone' or 'I have information on someone' and add details into the software)

Also from google: Maps set up by netizens who call themselves 'digital humanitarian volunteers' or so called CrisisMappers:

http://google.org/crisismap/2013-phailin.

Spread the word..

Also Volunteer's spread sheet:
Phailin Cyclone Volunteer spreadsheet.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 12 Oct 2013 11:08

PHAILIN Cyclone Update- Latest bulletin from the India Meteorological Department Time of issue: 0800 hours IST Dated: 12-10-2013

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/29
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 12th October 2013 over westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near
latitude 17.50 N and longitude 86.50 E, about 260 km southeast of Gopalpur, 270 km east-southeast
of Kalingapatnam and 310 km south-southeast of Paradip.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of today i.e. the 12th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a
maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.

Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat. 0N/ Long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Category 12-10-2013/0530 17.5/86.5 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 12-10-2013/1130 18.3/85.5 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1730 19.1/84.9 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330 19.8/84.5 170-180 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530 20.5/83.9 80-90 gusting to 100 Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1730 21.0/84.1 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
14.10.2013/0530 22.0/83.5 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i) Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely
heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over coastal Odisha during next 48 hrs and over interior
Odisha from today afternoon for subsequent 48 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated
heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48
hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal
commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12th October.

(ii) Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph would prevail along
and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 6 hours. It would increase in
intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 100-150 kmph from noon and 210-220
kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and
south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra
Pradesh coast is high and will become gradually phenomenal from forenoon of today. It will
be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.

(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide
would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to
kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris.
Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

(v) Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh,
Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale evacuation of
population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas . People in affected areas to remain indoors.

Post landfall outlook: Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards across interior Odisha.

Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy
falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and south Jharkhand. Squally wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also
prevail for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 12th October, 2013.

Above is from IMD 3 hours back. Somehow Phailin is categorized as a very severe cyclone and not as a super cyclone - even though wind speeds are touching 220 kmph little short of 2 km for it to be a super cyclone (222 kmph sustained over 3 min averages)

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 12 Oct 2013 11:16

flippin hell

Cyclone Phailin is half the size of India and strengthening quickly as it heads for land

http://qz.com/134028/cyclone-phailin-is ... -for-land/

An atmospheric beast is forming in the Bay of Bengal and heading straight for India. Cyclone Phailin—pronounced pie-leen; it’s a Thai word for “sapphire”—has exploded from tropical storm strength to potentially the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane.

+

Meteorologists can’t precisely determine Phailin’s current strength because there are no “hurricane hunter“ aircraft taking direct measurements of storms in the Indian Ocean basin. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a Hawaii-based forecasting outpost of the US Navy, says Phailin is undergoing “extreme rapid intensification.”

+

While strengthening, the storm has grown to nearly half the size of India itself (image via University of Wisconsin):

That forecast may, in fact, be conservative. Waters over the Bay of Bengal are exceptionally warm right now—more than 28°C, which is the generally agreed upon threshold above which rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is most likely.

+

The last storm of this magnitude to hit India was the 1999 Odisha cyclone, which killed more than 10,000 people and caused $4.5 billion in damage. That storm hit the same general area that Phailin appears to be headed, at about Phailin’s predicted strength.

+

India’s official meteorological service has had trouble keeping up with the quickly strengthening storm. In the agency’s latest official update, Phailin’s current intensity was listed as 50 mph (80 kph), weaker than current satellite estimates. That discrepancy could lead to local confusion and an underestimating of the storm’s true threat.

For example, the predicted landfall intensity commonly quoted in local media on Thursday of 105-115 mph (175-185 kph) was perhaps 40 mph (70 kph) too low, according to the latest JTWC forecast and my own assessment. Also, the government’s official storm surge forecast shows a maximum value at landfall of a little over 3 feet (1 meter). The 1999 cyclone produced a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters), a value that is not impossible with Phailin.

+

Still, India’s government has begun mobilizing preparations, such as the cancellation of Puja holiday celebrations and the activation of state disaster rapid action forces. More than a quarter million people have been moved to higher ground.

+

Should the storm maintain its current strength—or strengthen even further—India could be facing a true catastrophe. A worst case scenario would have Phailin tracking slightly eastward of its current forecasted track, toward Kolkata and the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh, which is home to tens of millions of people living just a few meters above sea level.

+

Storm surge and freshwater flooding from heavy rains are generally the biggest threats from landfalling cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region, home to the most deadly storms in modern history. Two reasons why Phailin may pack a particularly hefty punch: an ample finish to the 2013 monsoon season has saturated soils along India’s coastline, aggravating Phailin’s flooding potential. Plus, a just-completed ‘eyewall replacement cycle’ could act to further grow Phailin’s size and extent of storm surge damage.

+

In the absence of direct measurements, meteorologists use satellites to estimate the strength of storms like Phailin. One reliable technique shows Phailin is continuing to strengthen and may have already achieved the status of a “super cyclone,” the highest on India’s scale and the equivalent of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

+

At one point (2 a.m. Friday, India time), one satellite-based measure of Phailin’s strength estimated the storm’s central pressure at 910.2 millibars, with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph). If those numbers were verified by official forecast agencies, they would place Phailin on par with 2005′s Hurricane Katrina, and break the record for the most intense cyclone in Indian Ocean recorded history.

+

As of 8 p.m. Friday, India time, Phailin had indeed officially reached Category 5 status, with an intensity of 918mb and sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph). That ties the wind speed record set by the 1999 cyclone at its peak, currently the most intense storm ever to make landfall in India.

+

02BP (9)

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 12 Oct 2013 11:30

OK this is the latest 11 AM IST bulletin from IMD

Time of issue: 1100 hours IST Dated: 12-10-2013
(Red Message)
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/30
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.
The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 12 th October 2013 over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 17.8 0 N and longitude 86.0 0 E, about 200 km southeast of Gopalpur, 200 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam and 280 km southeast of Paradip. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of today i.e. the 12 th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.
Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position (Lat. 0 N/ Long. 0 E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Category
12-10-2013/0830 17.8/86.0 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1130 18.3/85.5 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1730 19.1/84.9 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330 19.8/84.5 170-180 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530 20.5/83.9 80-90 gusting to 100 Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1730 21.0/84.1 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
14.10.2013/0530 22.0/83.5 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i) Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over coastal Odisha during next 48 hrs and over interior Odisha from today afternoon for subsequent 48 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12 th October.
(ii) Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph would prevail along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 6 hours. It would increase in intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 100-150 kmph from noon and 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast is high and will become gradually phenomenal from forenoon of today. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.
(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris.
Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(v) Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale evacuation of population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas . People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Post landfall outlook: Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and south Jharkhand. Squally wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 12 th October, 2013.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 12 Oct 2013 12:01

there are problems with evacuation too

1. getting stuck going somewhere..maybe better to stay put
2. looting of house and property
3. you go somewhere and situation is worse there

we need to have drills done on evacuation....so when the real thing happens, people have less inertia and can get moving.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 12 Oct 2013 12:08

if i known my house can withstand it and have stocked up, i will just stay put

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Oct 2013 12:09

Lilo wrote:Above is from IMD 3 hours back. Somehow Phailin is categorized as a very severe cyclone and not as a super cyclone - even though wind speeds are touching 220 kmph little short of 2 km for it to be a super cyclone (222 kmph sustained over 3 min averages)

Lilo'ji I think it went through super-cyclone classification and back to very severe cyclone based on estimated wind speeds which are prone to rounding errors (from nautical miles to km) and also other factors. For example the cyclone is going through another eye-wall replacement and its eye is now about 60 km!

From wiki:

130–136 knots (150–157 mph; 240–252 km/h) 114–119 knots (131–137 mph; 211–220 km/h) Super Typhoon Super Cyclonic Storm Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

SPattath · Post by **SPattath** » 12 Oct 2013 12:17

This site has been tracking the cyclone from past 10 days, looks very accurate.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c305004ab1

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Oct 2013 12:18

Okay IMD is officially calling it as very-severe cyclonic storm. That is basically "super" or "cat 5" in colloquial term

Anyway - hope and pray.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 12 Oct 2013 12:23

fischy
10/11/2013 6:57 PM GMT+0530
I clicked on the front page link for "Phailin".....figuring it was a cute reference to the former Alaska Governor.

Obviously, this has the makings of a much larger disaster.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 12 Oct 2013 12:27

How are low pressure system classified in India? What are the differences between low, depression and cyclone?
The low pressure system over Indian region are classified based on the maximum sustained winds speed associated with the system and the pressure deficit/ number of closed isobars associated with the system. The pressure criteria is used, when the system is over land and wind criteria is used, when the system is over the sea. The system is called as low if there is one closed isobar in the interval of 2 hPa. It is called depression, if there are two closed isobars, a deep depression, if there are three closed isobars and cyclonic storm if there are four or more closed isobars. The detailed classification based on wind criteria are given in the Table below. Considering wind criteria, the system with wind speed of 17-27 knots is called as depression and the low pressure system with maximum sustained 3 minutes surface winds between 28-33 knots is called a deep depression. The system with maximum sustained 3 minutes surface winds of 34 knots or more is called as cyclonic storm

What is the damage potential of a very severe cyclonic storm (91-119 Knots or 168-221 Kmph) and what are the suggested actions?

Structures: Extensive damage to all types Kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects.
Communication and power: Extensive uprooting of power and communication poles.
Road/Rail: Disruption of rail / road link at several places.
Agriculture: Extensive damage to standing crops plantations, orchards. Blowing down of Palm and Coconut trees. Uprooting of large bushy trees.
Marine Interests: Phenomenal seas with wave heights more than 14m. Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable.
Coastal Zone: Storm surge up to 2 – 5 m, Inundation may extend up to 10-15 Km over specific areas. Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings, country crafts may get detached from moorings
Overall Damage Category: Extensive
Suggested Actions: Fishermen not to venture into sea. Evacuation from coastal areas essential. Diversion / suspension of rail traffic may be required.

What is the damage potential of a super cyclonic storm 120 Knots (222 Kmph) & above? What are the suggested actions?

Structures: Extensive damage to non-concrete residential and industrial building. Structural damage to concrete structures. Air full of large projectiles.
Communication and power: Uprooting of power and communication poles. Total disruption of communication and power supply.
Road/Rail: Extensive damage to Kutcha roads and some damage to poorly repaired pucca roads. Large scale submerging of coastal roads due to flooding and sea water inundation. Total disruption of railway and road traffic due to major damages to bridges, signals and railway tracks. Washing away of rail / road links at several places.
Agriculture: Total destruction of standing crops / orchards, uprooting of large trees and blowing away of palm and coconut crowns, stripping of tree barks.
Marine Interests: Phenomenal seas with wave heights more than 14m. All shipping activity unsafe.
Coastal Zone: Extensive damage to port installations. Storm surge more than 5m, Inundation up to 40 Km in specific areas and extensive beach erosion. All ships torn from their moorings. Flooding of escape routes.
Overall Damage Category: Catastrophic
Suggested Actions: Fishermen not to venture into sea. Large scale evacuations needed. Total stoppage of rail and road traffic needed in vulnerable areas

^^
Disha ji,
Indian IMD classification is different to Saffir-Simpson classification that US uses. So one cannot directly equate a super cyclone to be category 5 hurricane technically speaking or a very severe cyclone with cat 4 hurricane and so on..
IMD FAQ page has info on Indian classification..

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/faq/FAQP.htm

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Oct 2013 12:36

^^ Agree.

Just that sometimes you wonder when something lashes you at 220 kmph, will it lashing you at 218 kmph would have made less of a difference? I think for Indian conditions the ascending scale should be :

1 - Chot lagne ki ashanka hain (you will get hurt)
...
4 - Marne ki ashanka hain ( most likely to die )
5 - Pooch daba ke bhaag ( tuck your tail and run!!)

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 12:52

May not be strictly relevant to this but here is an account of Dr Jeff Masters flying into an hurricane and living to tell the tale:

http://www.wunderground.com/resources/e ... /hugo1.asp

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 13:00

18 fishermen are stranded 4 km away from Paradip coast in Odisha as they run out of fuel. CNN IBN reporting that the government has stated it cannot rescue them because of the weather condition. Odisha TV, on the other hand, tweeted that Coast Guard personnel are trying to rescue the stranded fishermen. [UPDATE] Odisha TV just tweeted that all the 18 fishermen have been rescued by the Coast Guard.

Great job Coast Guard!

‏@debabrata2008

More than 1.5 lakh people evacuated in Ganjam. Another 20000 on their way to cyclone shelter houses. Phailin landfall at 5.30 pm.

Almost ~~2 lakh~~ 4 lakh people evacuated. I hope it results in zero casualties as aimed.

CNN-IBN News ‏
Over 3,60,000 people have been evacuated from four districts of Odisha and more than 85,000 from Andhra Pradesh: NDMA #Phailin

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 13:30

Some fishermen ventured to sea despite advisories asking them not to. Now the CG will have to risk their men to try and save these folks. Some news channels there were locals right at the beach near ground zero saying they are having fun! There is a culture of safety that is sorely lacking and must be tackled.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 13:35

^^ True. When I was in Goa I saw the lifeguards shouting hoarse for more than 1/2 hour using bullhorns to evict people from swimming in dangerous waters. Some were found to be arguing with the lifeguards. Same people will turn around and complain that Govt is not caring. Lots of attitude change required.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 12 Oct 2013 14:26

Latest update from IMD of 14:00 IST.
Eye situated 150 km SE of Gopalpur and 160km east-south east of Kalingapatnam

Time of issue: 1300 hours IST Dated: 12-10-2013
(Red Message)
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/31
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.
The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 12 th October 2013 over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 18.1 0 N and longitude 85.7 0 E, about 150 km southeast of Gopalpur, 160 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam and 260 km southeast of Paradip. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of today i.e. the 12 th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.
Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat. 0 N/ Long. 0 E) Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) Category

12-10-2013/1130 18.1/85.7 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1730 18.9/84.9 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330 19.4/84.5 170-180 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530 20.5/84.1 80-90 gusting to 100 Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130 21.0/83.8 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
13-10.2013/2330 22.0/83.4 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i) Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over coastal Odisha during next 48 hrs and over interior Odisha from today afternoon for subsequent 48 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12 th October.
(ii) Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph would prevail along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 6 hours. It would increase in intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 100-150 kmph from noon and 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast is high and will become gradually phenomenal from forenoon of today. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.
(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris.
Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(v) Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale evacuation of population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas . People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Post landfall outlook : Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and south Jharkhand. Squally wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 12 th October, 2013.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 14:45

http://dma.jrc.it/map/?application=CYCLONES

Joint Research Centre Cyclone Tracking page.

Online tracker
http://www.cyclocane.com/phailin-storm-tracker/

It looks massive

Landfall expected at Gopalpur on Sea at about 1800 hrs.

Take care. Evacuate the area and cooperate with Agencies.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 15:00

krishnan wrote:if i known my house can withstand it and have stocked up, i will just stay put

If it does not get flooded by 6 mt waves for even 5 minutes

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 16:28

Media is illiterate. Burkha is asking why Storms are named only after women. Times Now is running a line that Phailin heads towards Coast at speed of 230 kmph. They get news from IMD that center is 120 km away and 3 hours later rehash the same..thereby giving a completley wrong or contradictory picture. Then they name a headline called India's Katrina..

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Oct 2013 16:35

Again few structures can withstand the water pressure of a 30 foot storm surge. The water is coming at you at 20-30 kmph and the wave action is pounding your building. If your foundation does not fail, your walls will for sure. Folks must evacuate. But it is clear now that they have not despite all the warnings. 12 hours before the storm surge there are people strolling on the beach despite all the warnings.

I think it is a function of memory and options. They do not want to leave their property and underestimate how quickly things can deteriorate. It was a fatal combination in 1999.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 12 Oct 2013 16:40

Actually who gave this name "Phailin" (whatever it means) ??? Doesn't seem like IMD gave this name.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 16:41

Rahul Kanwal of HT has just reported from the beach at Gopalpur and staying in a building with locals just off the beach..

Actually who gave this name "Phailin" (whatever it means) ??? Doesn't seem like IMD gave this name.

Thailand. Means saphire in Thai.