Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 12 Oct 2013 16:47

Thai met. dept. gave this name ???

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 16:52

Yes, for storms in the region Thailand, Myanmar, Pak, Bangladesh, India, SL give names for the serial depressions that arise. This one was named by Thailand as it was their turn.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Oct 2013 16:53

Zee news reporting 3 dead from falling trees.

Army has gone into Gopalpur to forcibly evacuate.

Phailin is coming ashore right now...

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Oct 2013 16:58

^^^Any reports on pressure measured? 900mb without winds can raise ocean waters 1.5 meters. The surge is going to be bad.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 12 Oct 2013 16:59

JWTC :

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 17:01

Amlan Dutta ‏@orphean_warbler 24m
Surge at dhamra not more > 0.8m from predicted tide. However pressure at gopalpur dropping fast 978mb at 1700hrs.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Oct 2013 17:15

India does not fly aircraft into the cyclone to get actual measurements. Something we really need to start doing IMHO. The lowest estimate from radar was 912mb.

Storm surge is dependent on the power of the hurricane 16-24 hours before landfall. It does not change that much after that. So storm surge will be commensurate to a Cat 5. Right now top of wave action is estimated at 45 feet! These waves will be coming ashore on top of the storm surge.

Its a bad sign that it is coming ashore int the dark. People will have no warning at all.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 17:17

Google spreadsheet for volunteer help and info:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=1

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 12 Oct 2013 17:35

Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus

Cyclone #Phailin's eye has just crossed India's coastline -- landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

+

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... 13_vsk.gif

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 12 Oct 2013 18:01

well i am sure they buoys in the ocean which would be measuring vital parameters.. though planes could give more data points..

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 12 Oct 2013 18:03

Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus 9m

Phailin is making landfall near time of low tide, which should help minimize coastal flooding impact

L Ram · Post by **L Ram** » 12 Oct 2013 18:45

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_vsk.gif
This is the DWR Vizag image at 6.40 p.m IST you can see the eye portion not yet reached the coast.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 19:19

Theo_Fidel wrote:India does not fly aircraft into the cyclone to get actual measurements. Something we really need to start doing IMHO. The lowest estimate from radar was 912mb.

Storm surge is dependent on the power of the hurricane 16-24 hours before landfall. It does not change that much after that. So storm surge will be commensurate to a Cat 5. Right now top of wave action is estimated at 45 feet! These waves will be coming ashore on top of the storm surge.

Its a bad sign that it is coming ashore int the dark. People will have no warning at all.

Coastal areas will be affected much. But people have been warned and evacuation has , apparently, completed. Revenue and Disaster management Dept people along with NDRF and Army/Navy/Airport are already on high alert. But casualties would not be avoided altogether due to many other reasons, I hope it will be minimum. Property damages could be rebuilt. I have been through Cat-4 cyclone. Wind howling and force is incredible. Only strong structure and storm shelters can help if one is in rural areas and coastal areas. One needs to stay indoor . Once eye is crossing , there will be eerie silence and then wind will pick up in opposite direction with highest ferocity and slowly reduce. That is the time when most structure collapse , i.e. when eye passes over and opposite winds start.

After cyclone, I could only see solar street lights functioning for seven -eitght days before power could be restored. It will be hell of a task restoring power. I think affected areas in Odisha would not have power for fortnight or a month. That is when I realised importance of Solar Street lights or temporary Emergency Solar Light packs to provide lights till power is restored. You can not run off battery or other sources for very long time. Solar will charge during the day when sky is clear after the storm. No not even NPP would be able to supply power when transmission lines and local distribution lines , transformers poles etc are out.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Oct 2013 19:21

there have been noises made of IMO getting a couple of C130J equipped like the NOAA type planes. noises only so far. we dont even have a network of doppler radars with reliable backhaul to monitor localized microcells in real time like every US TV channel gets a diet of 24x7.

darker whispers say much of the IOR tsunami buoys installed in a hurry are now not operational due to lack of money to maintain and overhaul them. this while japan and US maintain a tip top network in the pacific for their own safety.

the last thing we need is a tsunami in middle of a cyclone. I spoke to a entrepreneur who had taken 50 of his employees on a picnic to a small island off karnataka coast on tsunami day. highest point in that island is 10feet above the low tide mark when I visited. says nobody was killed but most lost their cellphones because the water rose suddenly by 2 feet from calf height to chest height!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Oct 2013 19:23

manjgu wrote:well i am sure they buoys in the ocean which would be measuring vital parameters.. though planes could give more data points..

there are dark whispers about the condition of the tsunami buoys. not sure if storm measuring buoys are even used by IMO. we are mostly nanga as usual and depending on throwing in men and materials post any disaster and a few buckets of water to wash off the blood stains. preventive care is never a indic strongpoint.

from 2010:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 26124.html
(Most tsunami warning buoys in the Indian Ocean are routinely out of operation.) One German buoy broke away because of heavy algae growth; another was cut off by a fishing boat. For a time, five of India's six warning buoys were missing. It's believed that pirates stole and dismantled them before selling the parts at markets.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 19:26

I think Eye of the storm must have made land fall.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 19:30

yes, TV is reporting it now. Landfall at 1955 Hrs at Srikakulam.

prashanth · Post by **prashanth** » 12 Oct 2013 19:31

The hindu reporting that wind speeds in Gopalpur is 180-190 kph.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Oct 2013 19:49

http://www.firstpost.com/india/all-this ... 68501.html

A thought that the wind speeds might have been under played to avoid panic. NDMA accuses of others over playing the speeds - especially the US Navy.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 19:59

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 17m
Can hear glass panes around us being shattered. Like Diwali fire crackers, going off in succession. #Gopalpur #PhailinFury Gloom & fear

Rahul is 50 meters from the beach.

Suketh Chinchela ‏@schinchela 18m
#CyclonePhailin just touched into the land of Odisha hitting Gopalpur at about 260 kmph

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Oct 2013 20:05

After '77 Cyclone I read that most of the anemometers failed to record and gusting winds were estimated at over 180 mph! Even though people were warned ahead of time they refused to evacuate and it resulted in thousands of avoidable deaths. But when another storm hit the same area a couple of years later everyone followed the advice and evacuated. People seem to forget how destructive these cyclones are after a few years and everything starts all over again.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 20:27

If population is evacuated to shelter then loss of lives may not be much , certainly not as large as 1999 cyclone. That was due to unpreparedness. Most of the structures in villages are not in a position to withstand cyclone fury of cat-3 and above. Coastal areas are at the risk of inundation. Many deaths take place because of uprooting of trees, lightening strikes, electrical shock. Now shutting power is mandatory. Staying indoor is advisable. Moving to higher ground is safer. But never take shelter under a tree. Don't stay on roads. Loose Things fly around
and may hit , injure and kill one. Drowning near coastal areas are possible so move inland. RDM keeps food ready during such emergency so reach nearby shelter one is assured of food.

The problem is also that of pilfering burglary theft from unoccupied houses. people leave their houses to avoid cyclones and return to find all valuables gone. During first week after the cyclone, most of the copper wires, electrical equipments batteries will be stolen.

Two days after cyclone there is chance of disease so medicine and area sanitation materials need to be deployed.

Kerosene and fuel materials and adequate food supply need to be stored alone with blankets ( this is winter season and people may die of cold. Dry firewood comes in handy.

Rehab will start after cleaning up operation is done in the week following.

Central govt will promise all help and deliver little after cyclone has passed. Their emergency teams will always be there to help but not much support will come thereafter. At least Odisha may not expect , but then it is election year so Congis may do it.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 21:04

Going by the twitter round up, the national media has dropped the ball on this one (too). The Andhra channels seem to give a better view.

Prem Panicker has been storyfying the more accurate information. Follow him on twitter

https://twitter.com/prempanicker

Or his storify

http://storify.com/prempanicker/cyclone ... unabridged

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 21:22

After 15 Km wide eye of the storm passes ( the period of calm) the wind will suddenly become very high being near to the centre of the storm and thereafter gradually it will dissipate. That may take 10 to 12 hours. I am hearing good news about disaster management preparedness by Odisha Govt. I hope AP is also prepared equally as they were in turmoil .

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 21:30

One of the biggest damage would be damage to Coconut trees. Crowns will get broken and trees will wither away. That will affect village livelihood later as lot of people are dependent on that. After 1999 cyclone I saw in AP and Odisha large tracts of Coconut trees standing forlornly withering away. Of course , cyclone fury had done its death dance then and more than 10.000 had died. This time preparedness is far superior and Amirkhans underestimate our IMD and RDM. But trees, no one can save them.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 21:31

Wind Speed reported 200 kmph at landfall.
Waves /storm surge 3 to 3.5 mts.

6 lakhs people , largest evacuation in the world, successfully evacuated to safer place.

Next 10 hrs crucial.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 21:34

55 NDRF team deployed besides other agencies.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 21:41

landfall was near Gopalpur as per IMD DG press briefing.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 Oct 2013 21:50

IMD DG was visibly exasperated by our DDM's stupid questions.

one bimbo asked "sir, does higher wind speed more danger ?"

another, "sir, what is the difference b/w 210 kmph and 200 kmph"

DG Rathod : (looks around the room) "would someone please calculate that for her ? it is 10 km ma'm. and those 10 km hardly matter, even if one gets hit by an object flying in a 180 kmph storm, it's catastrophy for him" .

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Oct 2013 21:53

It seems it is a slow moving storm (only 10 miles per hour) and thus likely to cause more damage. It would be an hour before the eye passes and it will be eerily quiet inside the eye and the whole thing will start again (was in the eye of '77 cyclone).

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 21:55

From here: http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013 ... e-phailin/

As the storm progressed on Saturday, people in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh became increasingly difficult to reach on cellphones.

But India's Department of Telecommunications is taking steps that may help. It has asked all telecom companies to share infrastructure including towers and bandwidth to ensure continuity of services in the two states.

The department has also asked operators to connect to two helpline call centers with the numbers 1948 for Orissa and 1949 for Andhra Pradesh, as well as send information about the helpline numbers to their users in affected areas, according to an order on the department's website.

The operators will also transmit text-message advisories from state governments and federal government agencies, including the National Disaster Management Authority and the meteorological department, the notice said.

The order will be in effect for the next 15 days, and operators must report on the implementation status everyday at 8 a.m. to federal telecom officials in the two states.

There were about 90.55 million users in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh at the end of July, data from the telecom regulator showed. India had 874.88 million subscribers at that time.

Good that the Govt is proactive. Fingers crossed with all the precautions the damages should be minimal.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 12 Oct 2013 22:09

Rahul M wrote:IMD DG was visibly exasperated by our DDM's stupid questions.

one bimbo asked "sir, does higher wind speed more danger ?"

another, "sir, what is the difference b/w 210 kmph and 200 kmph"

DG Rathod : (looks around the room) "would someone please calculate that for her ? it is 10 km ma'm. and those 10 km hardly matter, even if one gets hit by an object flying in a 180 kmph storm, it's catastrophy for him" .

What wrong did we do to have such useless creatures as journalists ???

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 22:11

@ANI_news
#Phailin : According to Special Relief Commissioner PK Mohapatra 7,24,000 people have been evacuated till now

Mind boggling numbers. Hope not many people are stranded even after this mammoth effort.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 22:34

Rahul, IMD Chief called winds in Gopalpur as Gale force! That was a shocker! The eye is now on Gopalpur ..15 minutes ago. Rahul K is reporting absolute calm. That means the eye is now on the town. It did not strike Gopalpur when IMD said about an hour and half back. It might have struck below and moved north, but unlikely. The eye has hit Gopalpur now.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 12 Oct 2013 22:40

saravana wrote:
@ANI_news
#Phailin : According to Special Relief Commissioner PK Mohapatra 7,24,000 people have been evacuated till now
Mind boggling numbers. Hope not many people are stranded even after this mammoth effort.

All credit to administration teams and defense personnel.

Tomorrow onwards when the storm crosses over and subsides only then we would know destruction.

L Ram · Post by **L Ram** » 12 Oct 2013 22:44

Eye now crossed Gopalpur

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Oct 2013 22:45

Per NDTV, the storm surge arrived at low tide.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 Oct 2013 22:46

harbans, gopalpur or south of gopalpur ?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 22:47

BBC Correspondent in Behrampur facing Gale force winds..

Andrew North ‏@NorthAndrew 1h
Powerful gusts blowing in windows at hotel, glass shattering on floor #Phailin

Andrew North ‏@NorthAndrew 1h
Just arrived Brahmapur, streets strewn with debris #Phailin

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 22:54

L Ram, please avoid inline posting from IMD website. 1. It is very slow to load. 2. It will be adding load to already slow server, hampering others