Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 22:54

Rahul M wrote:harbans, gopalpur or south of gopalpur ?

It was between Gopalpur and Srikakulam.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Oct 2013 22:57

Sagar G wrote:Thai met. dept. gave this name ???

This depression formed in the South China Sea south of Vietnam and east of Thailand, and was first tracked by the Japan Meteorological Bureau. It crossed over the Thai peninsula into the Bay of Bengal and then strengthened dramatically in the warm open water from a tropical storm into the equivalent of a Cat.4 hurricane.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 22:59

National Institute of Oceanography's weather station in Gopalpur. Real time wind and pressure data

http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/

L Ram · Post by **L Ram** » 12 Oct 2013 23:00

saravana wrote:L Ram, please avoid inline posting from IMD website. 1. It is very slow to load. 2. It will be adding load to already slow server, hampering others

Edited my privious posts.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 12 Oct 2013 23:02

Thanks L Ram

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 Oct 2013 23:02

chaanakya wrote:
Rahul M wrote:harbans, gopalpur or south of gopalpur ?
It was between Gopalpur and Srikakulam.

we were talking about IMD DG's comment about gale force winds.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Oct 2013 23:06

ToI has a live blog going on:
ToI Cyclone Phailin liveblog

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 12 Oct 2013 23:07

Suraj wrote:
Sagar G wrote:Thai met. dept. gave this name ???
This depression formed in the South China Sea south of Vietnam and east of Thailand, and was first tracked by the Japan Meteorological Bureau. It crossed over the Thai peninsula into the Bay of Bengal and then strengthened dramatically in the warm open water from a tropical storm into the equivalent of a Cat.4 hurricane.

This transformation happened too quick - just one day. The preparedness for this is excellent and focused.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 12 Oct 2013 23:12

Any casualties reported?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 23:17

7 before landfall.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 12 Oct 2013 23:17

Too soon allow the storm to pass first and pray there is least.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 23:20

Sagar G wrote:Thai met. dept. gave this name ???

Here is the list and procedure. Next one will be Helen from BD the thereafter Lehar from India.

Pranay · Post by **Pranay** » 12 Oct 2013 23:21

http://google.org/crisismap/2013-phailin?gl=in

Cyclone Phailin - Landfall and other details on Google ... (Source - U. S. Navy)

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 Oct 2013 23:24

harbans, gopalpur or south of gopalpur ?

Rahul, it was about Gopalpur he was talking about..point of impact. He also referred to Arrey kya difference hai 210-220 mein. technically right. But restraining gusts to hardly 5% above sustained betrayed conservativeness that may be expensive. Gust speeds are generally upto 30% above sustained. Was taking the int'vw too casually IMO.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 12 Oct 2013 23:29

chaanakya wrote:
Sagar G wrote:Thai met. dept. gave this name ???
Here is the list and procedure. Next one will be Helen from BD the thereafter Lehar from India.

Thanks saar pretty informative, one of the future one shares my user handle name. That better hit pottystan

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 23:31

chaanakya wrote:
Rahul M wrote:harbans, gopalpur or south of gopalpur ?
It was between Gopalpur and Srikakulam.

Rahul M wrote: we were talking about IMD DG's comment about gale force winds.

Ok

Entire area will have gale force wind . On Beaufort Wind Force Scale it is between 50 to 102 kmph. Except where eye has hit, it was reported to be 210-215(Hurricane force) but not crossing 220 for cyclone to be classified as Super cyclone.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Oct 2013 23:35

The difference between 210 km/hr and 200 km/hr for all practical purposes doesn't mean much as debris will go through walls. It does mean something when you design coastal shelters to withstand certain wind speeds and can take a certain load. It may be less expensive to design and build, for example, 10 shelters that can withstand 160 km/hr and that may be all you need in 99% of cases, as opposed to 3 shelters that can withstand >200 Km/hr.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Oct 2013 23:35

Beaufort Wind Force Scale

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Oct 2013 23:40

Hopefully, Phailin doesn't spawn tornadoes inland. Katrina spawned many tornadoes inland when it hit in 2005.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Oct 2013 23:41

From the ToI blog:

As per IMD data, the rainfall received in Bhubaneswar from 8.30am to 8.30pm was 130mm, while Gopalpur and Puri received 78mm and 81mm respectively.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 12 Oct 2013 23:42

^^^There will be heavy rains in Chattishgarh and eastern MP which can cause bad flooding.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Oct 2013 23:48

Yes, from initial indications, the storm surge does not appear to have caused catastrophic casualties, thanks to nearly a million people being evacuated from the coast. However, with the strong monsoons and high water table, there's potential for inland flooding from excess rainfall.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 13 Oct 2013 00:26

Guys, if you have any Indian channels in US, both TimesNow and HeadlineNow have superb coverage. Brave reporters from the site giving live updates.

Overall, situation is being managed well despite limited resources.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 13 Oct 2013 01:05

It is dark right now so we should not declare the all clear just yet. It took a few days even in 1999 for the true extent of the damage to become clear. The max storm surge usually occurs where the winds are blowing inland. Hopefully the massive evacuation will minimize casualties.

-----------------------------

Singha wrote:the last thing we need is a tsunami in middle of a cyclone. I spoke to a entrepreneur who had taken 50 of his employees on a picnic to a small island off karnataka coast on tsunami day. highest point in that island is 10feet above the low tide mark when I visited. says nobody was killed but most lost their cellphones because the water rose suddenly by 2 feet from calf height to chest height!

Singha,

I am confused. Why are you bringing in Tsunami now. Folks have enough things on their hands to worry about. There is no earthquake danger. Do you know something to suddenly alarm folks visiting this thread for emergency info. Folks will become nervous during the rescue phase. If you know of an earthquake info please post the data.
------------------------------------------------------

BTW that question about 200 vs 210 has to do with scale. At 200 it is a Cat 3 Cyclone and at 210 it is a Cat 4 Cyclone. IMD should answer the question without getting pi$$y. The size of the storm surge is directly related to the wind speed BTW so yes important question.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Oct 2013 01:10

MV Bingo , anchored off Haldia Port and laden with iron ore , is sinking. 18 crew mwmbers are stranded on board. Hope they are rescued before it goes down.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Oct 2013 01:39

Paradip port asked all ships incl a loaded oil tanker to move out. So anchored off the coast. Wonder how they are faring.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 13 Oct 2013 01:41

Paradip port asked all ships incl a loaded oil tanker to move out. So anchored off the coast. Wonder how they are faring.

They would have been asked to move deep sea. Dangerous to allow them to keep at anchor in such a storm!

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 13 Oct 2013 01:50

Rahul M wrote:IMD DG was visibly exasperated by our DDM's stupid questions.

one bimbo asked "sir, does higher wind speed more danger ?"

another, "sir, what is the difference b/w 210 kmph and 200 kmph"

DG Rathod : (looks around the room) "would someone please calculate that for her ? it is 10 km ma'm. and those 10 km hardly matter, even if one gets hit by an object flying in a 180 kmph storm, it's catastrophy for him" .

Wind load on a structure is proportional to the square of wind velocity.
Therefore from 200kmph to 210 kmph (5% increase in speed) the force exerted (aka wind load) increases by approximately 10 percent .
According to IMD classification 200 to 210 doesn't imply a change in cyclone category - both are falling under very Severe Cyclone category.
Ultimately that is not a question fit to be asked in an important pressconference - may be if the reporter is interviewing for a post cyclone documentary film - such things can be asked and physics behind them explained at leisure.

Time of issue: 0130 hours IST Dated: 13-10-2013

(Red Message)

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/35

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay of
Bengal has crossed coast close to Gopalpur (Odisha)

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over northwest adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal
moved north-northwestwards during past 3 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and crossed Odisha &
adjoining north coastal Andhra Pradesh near Gopalpur between 2030 to 2130 IST of 12 th October
2013 and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 12 th October 2013 near latitude 19.5 0 N and longitude 84.8 0

E, 25 km northwest of Gopalpur over south coastal Odisha. The system would move in north-
northwestwards and weaken gradually.

Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0 N/ Long. 0 E)

Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)

Category

12-10-2013/2330 19.5/84.8 200-210 gusting to 230 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530 20.5/84.1 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130 21.5/83.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
13-10-2013/1730 22.5/83.0 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
13-10-2013/2330 23.5/82.5 35-45 gusting to 55 Depression

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal

(i) Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely
heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during
next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West
Bengal during next 48 hrs.

Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 200-210 kmph gusting to 220 along and off coastal districts
of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha would prevail during next 3-4 hours. State of Sea
along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be phenomenal.
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of
power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive
flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive
damage to agricultural crops.

Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh,
Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension of fishing operations. Large scale evacuation of
population from coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas. People in
affected areas to remain indoors.

Post landfall outlook: System is likely to maintain the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for 3

hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving

northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at

a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many

places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh,

Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Gale wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours

and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same period.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0430 hrs IST of today, the 13 th October, 2013.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 Oct 2013 02:09

TF, IMD doesn't follow that scale. in IMD's scale 200kmph and 210 kmph both fall in very severe cyclone category.

chaanakya wrote:MV Bingo , anchored off Haldia Port and laden with iron ore , is sinking. 18 crew mwmbers are stranded on board. Hope they are rescued before it goes down.

last I heard they had abandoned ship and were on lifeboats. navy OPV's were trying to rescue them.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 13 Oct 2013 03:21

Info from Headlines Today news channel:

NDRForce has wireless and satellite phones.

Heavy to very heavy rain showers likely at places, 150km of coastline facing rains and high winds.

WBengal : ship with 35 passengers missing

Huge damage of property certain.

Army columns already moved in, NDRF rescue teams started working in 3 states.

Rescue teams equipped well with medicines lifeboats etc.

AF air crafts and Navy ships ready to join efforts.

PM, Cabinet Secretary reviewing situation. NDRF control room on 24 hour monitoring.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 13 Oct 2013 03:41

After first 6 hours its severity will start decreasing and will reduce considerably by noon.

Most severe effects of storm on north AP/Odisha south border.

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Oct 2013 03:41

^^ The eye is 60 Km in diameter. And at 10 km/hr it will take atleast 6 hours for the cyclone's second wall to hit the area.

And the above situation is actually dangerous since people think that it is calm (and in fact could be even sunny!) now and the worst is over and venture out. And bang they get hit by the second wall - and with all the debris around, the debris field becomes even more dangerous.

And all the media journos (except Rahul Kanwal) have proved that they are - bimbos!

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 13 Oct 2013 04:14

More info:
Affected areas see power blackouts, including 12 coastal districts. Flights cancelled, trains rerouted or cancelled.

More than 30 ships and aircrafts with rescue materials on standby.

Rains and heavy rains expected for 24-48 hours. From a reporter's words at some place it is very windy and noisy but has little rain- can be at the eye.

NewsX channel is running some video clip of coast too.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Oct 2013 04:32

In all probability the causalities may be limited but property loss will be there. This is a test to the cyclone disaster agencies working over a decade in AP.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Oct 2013 04:52

http://in.reuters.com/news/pictures/sli ... X148N4#a=1

Slideshow of the pics.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 13 Oct 2013 04:53

Rahul M wrote:TF, IMD doesn't follow that scale. in IMD's scale 200kmph and 210 kmph both fall in very severe cyclone category.

And the IMD has been criticized very strongly for this many times. One of the problems in 1999 if you remember is that the admin got less than 36 hours warning of a severe cyclone because the IMD does not graduate the scale. It goes straight from severe cyclonic to super cyclonic. Folks never got a sense that the cyclone was strengthening. Even this time following the IMD would have meant a less than 24 hour evacuation period. Just 24 hours ago they were claiming that Phailin was not a super cyclone.

Per the IMD all the way from 118-221 kmph is a very severe cyclonic storm. Which babu comes up with this.

Finally 221 and above is super cyclonic.

Just to give you some comparison, this range is Category 1,2,3&4 on the Dvorak scale.

I think it should be clear why everyone follows the international scale. Hard to defend the IMD.
Reporters are reduced to begging for wind speeds to make the conversion and see if the cyclone is strengthening.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Oct 2013 05:39

Lilo wrote:
Rahul M wrote:IMD DG was visibly exasperated by our DDM's stupid questions.one bimbo asked "sir, does higher wind speed more danger ?"
another, "sir, what is the difference b/w 210 kmph and 200 kmph"DG Rathod : (looks around the room) "would someone please calculate that for her ? it is 10 km ma'm. and those 10 km hardly matter, even if one gets hit by an object flying in a 180 kmph storm, it's catastrophy for him"

Dont want to go OT but the man, just transfered from CISF, is very efficient, honest to the core and had won many rewards. He had served in Bosina in conflict zone and above all will be at much ease in the company of Gurus like Brihaspati, Atri, Agnimitra and Rajesh Ji.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 13 Oct 2013 05:40

Since IMD forecast has been closer to actual event than the American forcasts, would it be a fair assumption that they are using a pretty good forecasting model?

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 13 Oct 2013 05:45

One of the interviews of the IMD chief that was available on NDTV, it felt a little condescending. He is addressing concerns of aam junta in a largely scientifically illiterate country. So he has to give answers more directly to the media, rather than poke fun at them for their ignorance. This is not a science class, but affects people's life and property. Though overall IMD did a better job this time around, but a few noticeable things were like how dismissive he was of international sources being quoted by the Indian media. The reason the media quotes the International agencies, is because they have made it easy for people to follow with regular updates and explanation.

1) He sounded kind of dismissive when someone in the media asked whether it was a Cat-5 storm, almost like he did not understand the question. I can understand his concern that local media are not using IMD's bulletins, but then IMD has to interact with them on a regular basis or make information easily available to the general public.

2) He claimed the IMD models for the local basin is best understood by IMD only. Not true since if you look at the amount of publications on Indian monsoons as an example in the literature, the reality is there are lot of experts outside of India. Besides, IMD folks have sent people out to learn more on the European and US modeling community's efforts to incorporate in theirs. Most of the storm tracking improvements on exact landfall have come from such interactions. He is way off the mark on that from what I have heard.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Oct 2013 05:45

Hats off to the authorities, one of the largest evacuations in human history? Marvelous. Great work. Hopefully, the next few days pass on with as less problems as possible, less casualties, less disease and injuries.