Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Sagar G
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Sagar G »

Regarding the recent success w.r.t. Phailin our very own SDRE weather prediction model VARSHA might have played a significant role in this.

From NAL's site for Varsha
Q. What is the Varsha GCM?
A. The Varsha General Circulation Model, is a weather prediction code developed at NAL as part of the ongoing NMITLI project.It evolved from the GCM code of NCMRWF, Noida which in turn was based on the NCEP spectral code.The Varsha GCM solves the governing equations of the atmosphere around the globe. The spectral method is used for better accuracy. A significant feature of the Varsha GCM is the boundary layer module with "heat-flux" scaling, which is more appropriate for the low winds which are generally present over India.

Q. What inputs do you need for the weather prediction model?
A. Global fields of temperature, winds,humidity and pressure over a three-dimensional grid (latitude, longitude, altitude) are required as initial conditions to the model.

Q. Where do you get the input data?
A. We use the assimilated initial conditions available in the public domain from NCEP, USA. These datasets are prepared using observations from all over the globe (shared by countries under a WMO agreement) and a variety of sources (ground stations, satellite data, radio-sondes, aircraft and ship reports..).

Q. What are the quantities you predict?
A.Our focus is on monsoon rainfall, usually on an all India scale.We also forecast tracks of tropical cyclones.

Q. Do you predict tsunamis?
A. NO, the Varsha GCM is an atmospheric model, while tsunamis are essentially oceans waves triggered by earthquakes.
From NAL's 2010-11 annual report pg.6
In the other NMITLI programme under the societal mission involving development of the Met code, VARSHA, with finer grid and ten Tera FLOP HPC system, the inter-process communication system comprising of reconfigurable FPGA-based FloSwitch and PCI cards were fully integrated with a 256- processor system which is part of the ten Tera FLOPS machine; the endurance test was also completed successfully. The resolution of Varsha GCM was enhanced to 40/20 KM and successfully ported to the 256- processor system. Monsoon onset for 2010 was captured well by the Varsha GCM. The summer and monsoon 2010 forecasts of Varsha GCM were regularly communicated to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Agriculture Ministry and IMD. This data is being used for crop planning and drought mitigation.
Also found a research article from current science dated 25th sept. 2010 titled Forecast of the Track and intensity of tropical cyclone AILA over the Bay of Bengal by the Global Spectral Atmospheric model VARSHA
Bade
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Bade »

Jingos here need to realize the origins of the Spectral model (http://coaps.fsu.edu/prediction/G-RSM/) and HRWF
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ting_model) which IMD is using for these forecasts. Not to mention as admitted per IMD itself that the initial conditions data are sourced from everywhere in the global community. WMO exists for that purpose largely.

Check this document. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dyna ... verage.pdf

Especially pages 4, 11, 14.

The key difference is not the underlying physics of the models, but one of the things already mentioned earlier in one of the articles that IMD now runs the regional model every 30 minutes due to improved computing facilities, which will help. IMD does not have to do global assimilation of data as they are concerned only for the local basin, reducing computing demands significantly. This is a welcome progress and kudos should be shared with C-DAC and CMMACS which I believe from previous reports have been involved in this area.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by A_Gupta »

Seeing how effective the state apparatus has been so far, I hope people demand it be as effective in every day life, not just in emergency situations.
Muppalla
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Muppalla »

A_Gupta wrote:Seeing how effective the state apparatus has been so far, I hope people demand it be as effective in every day life, not just in emergency situations.
It is a dedication of 30+ years of hardwork of the weatherman, the states infrastructure and preparedness for the cyclones. India will get there.

Once again kudos to all those who did the best ever job and India should be proud.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Rahul M »

death toll is now at 14 (13 for odisha, 1 in AP). unless there's a flood we can safely expect the toll to stay below 100. I think congratulations are in order to the NDRF, armed forces and civil administration for managing to avert the worst of this crisis.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by vishvak »

Absolutely great job. Noone is complaining of loss of life amongst big factors. The biggest battles are won.

Focus seems to be loss of property completely which is huge as per news reports.

Heart goes to people who have to see lakhs of rupees of investments going to loss.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by KJo »

Rahul M wrote:death toll is now at 14 (13 for odisha, 1 in AP). unless there's a flood we can safely expect the toll to stay below 100. I think congratulations are in order to the NDRF, armed forces and civil administration for managing to avert the worst of this crisis.
Sad as it is with people dying, something like this would have caused 1000s earlier.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Muppalla »

vishvak wrote:Absolutely great job. Noone is complaining of loss of life amongst big factors. The biggest battles are won.

Focus seems to be loss of property completely which is huge as per news reports.

Heart goes to people who have to see lakhs of rupees of investments going to loss.
Lost will be to insurance companies. I think there is a lot of crop insurance too. More than investments, the losses will be to poor as their thatched and mud houses will be lost.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by harbans »

Bade Ji, you have a point. While IMD has considerably improved in the last few years, it's public data coverage for Indian Ocean region remains woeful. Even those ships that transit IOR region don't go much by IMD broadcasts..they prefer Japanese and US sources and routing advice. The contention is not about whether the US data was right or IMD got it right on windspeed. The truth is certainly in between. The US was on the higher side and the IMD 200 kmph on the lower, from some accounts of those who witnessed both. From Rahul Kanwals tweets, the landfall (eye passing) occurred an hour and half post IMD declaration whence the fury knocked of all his equipment and shattered the windows of his accommodation. Large credit for lesser casualities does go to the adminstration.,and preparations, convincing people to evacuate etc.
vishvak
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by vishvak »

Was referring to poor people too. The poor suffer the most especially when basic support system is weakest- administration, power, water, etc. Plus loss is much more for poor who live in kachchaa housing, and is much more relative to rich as proportion to income/saving.

The initial help in these days are crucial. But the way there is gawking and sniping at a remark on twitter by NaMo goes, propaganda is likely with biases and what not.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by vasu raya »

Crop Insurance companies mitigate the loss by raising the premiums, even govt. ex-gratia cost would be amortized over the years by the planning commission, just different schemes. Hopefully the Aadhaar card linkage comes through for the civil admin.

Then the need for prefab structures resistant to such wind speeds, railways already use concrete reinforced sleepers, those contractors could be encouraged to diversify by the IAS wallahs to build simple prefab homes in place of mud or thatched houses.

Also, when main power is lost Cell towers would need to revert to support HAM radio networks as a backup which probably can be supported by solar panels used for street lighting purposes.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Bade »

harbans, IMD gave a wide window just like they do here too in the US. Yes, there is always some uncertainty in all forecasts. It is a fact of life. The GFS runs at least in the US are run every 6 hours globally, of course regional forecast models can have their own run frequency. But the need to run frequently your models, is necessary if your data collection frequency is better. Nowadays with all the buoys as seen in the IOR region (not just from IMD) but other national agencies too helps in improving the forecasts.

All the evacuation efforts really helped and the fact that landfall was during low tide as per reports. It meant storm surge was not as damaging too. Good news is always welcome. Hopefully, lessons learned will be made into SOP for future calamities, which will certainly come with climate change as IPCC reports that came out recently mention.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by debadutta »

brilliant job by state and central agencies. really glad to see that we have learnt the lessons of 1999. Also shows the difference that a strong leader can make (comparing naveen patnaik with giridhar gomang) i hope that now they will focus on relief and rebuilding in the affected areas.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by ramana »

Congratulations to goi and all its bracnhes for saving lives in face of mega cyclone.

I remember 1977 Andhra Cyclone which killed so many people without mercy.
We have come a long way.

Truly March of a Nation.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by chaanakya »

Cyclone Phailin hits 90 lakh people; 23 dead, lakhs of homes damaged

Post cyclone , relief and rehab work is tremendous. Let state Admin not sit on its well deserved laurels but work hard to rebuilt lives.
GOPALPUR/SRIKAKULAM: Cyclone Phailin on Sunday left a trail of destruction knocking down lakhs of homes affecting nearly 90 lakh people and destroying paddy crops worth about Rs 2,400 crore, but Odisha and Andhra Pradesh escaped from widespread loss of life.

As the largest evacuation efforts in the country's recent history helped keep casualties to the minimum, reports from the two states tonight said that 23 people died, all but two of them in Odisha. Most of the casualties were caused by wall collapse, uprooted trees and in floods.

Communication links were vastly disrupted by the strong winds that went upto a speed of 220 kmph when the "very severe" cyclonic storm crossed the coast near Gopalpur last night and weakened before turning into a depression. Ganjam district in Odisha bore the brunt of the storm.

According to IMD tonight, Phailin weakened further turning into "deep depression" with wind speed of 45-55 kmph and currently lay over northern Chhattisgarh, parts of Orissa and Jharkhand. According to M Mohapatra, scientist (Cyclone Warning Division) of the meteorology department, the "cyclonic storm" has now turned to "deep depression" with the wind speed of 45-55 kmph. It currently lays over northern Chhattisgarh, parts of Orissa and Jharkhand. It is expected to weaken further late tonight, he said.
Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik said the primary aim was to minimize loss of human lives and they have successfully managed to do so. "Property to the tune of several crores has been damaged...Rehabilitation will now be done."

Giving details of the devastation, Odisha revenue minister S N Patro said 14,514 villages in 12 districts have been affected, hitting a population of 80,53,620.

Over 2.34 lakh houses have been damaged and more than 8.73 lakh people evacuated.

Over five lakh hectares of standing crops have been destroyed by the gushing waters causing an estimated loss of Rs 2,400 crore, he said.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Theo_Fidel »

+100 to the administration for stepping up.
I think everyone took the warnings seriously.
It is unfortunate that IMD credibility is so low that folks look elsewhere for data.
If the IMD is consistently correct their credibility will rise.
----------------

BTW the infrastructure damage appears to be every bit as severe as predicted. Billions of dollars in reconstruction. Entire villages appear to be wiped out and have to be rebuilt. Esp. the tatch mud walls type.

Here are some pictures. Note the complete absence of trees.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/201 ... casualties
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 13 Oct 2013 22:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Rahul M »

people look elsewhere because IMD is no good at providing their data to aam public, not because their credibility is low.

I have noticed this in recent times. previously, IMD was considered a joke, if they said the day would be sunny people strode off to get the raincoat. no more, people mostly trust their predictions nowadays. even in this case they were accurate to the T about how much rainfall WB would receive from this storm and that's a secondary effect of the weather system.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Suraj »

The wunderground blog folks were talking about a 3m storm surge as far north as the Bangladesh coast, and criticized the IMD's estimates. Ultimately the latter proved more accurate in hindsight. Here's his latest blog entry:
Powerful Cyclone Phailin not a Mega-Disaster for India
A victory for India's cyclone evacuation and preparation efforts
While we have yet to hear from the worst affected area, the town of Gopalpur in Odisha where the eye of Phailin came ashore, it is clear that India has avoided a humanitarian mega-disaster like occurred in October 1999, when the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone killed nearly 10,000 people in the same region of the county. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters.

How strong was Phailin?
According to satellite strength estimates made by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Phailin was just as strong as the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone, 12 hours before landfall. Both storms were rated as Category 5 storms with winds of 160 mph. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) strength estimates for Phailin were considerably lower than that of JTWC, but since both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds and pressure, we don't know which center was correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different central pressures for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans--i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will have a higher pressure in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) However, the satellite estimates give the same winds for each ocean, since the lower pressures in the Pacific are due to the fact that background pressures in the Pacific are lower, and it takes a much lower central pressure to generate the same winds as in an Atlantic storm. It may be the satellite-wind relationship is different in the Indian Ocean, though. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 3-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 2%, due to the longer averaging period. (I said incorrectly that IMD uses 10-minute averaging times in my Saturday blog post.) We need a hurricane hunter aircraft in the Indian Ocean to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds to resolve the issue.
Good to see the comments for the article too stating regret at the over-eager trashing of IMD's capabilities.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Here is the storm surge prediction from IMD. Finally accessible.
The model predicted 20 feet at Ganjam.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/surge.htm

---------------------------------------

The next stage should be to harden structures to prevent infrastructure damage in our coastal areas.
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 13 Oct 2013 23:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by nawabs »

Army Air Defence Provide Sanctuary to People of Four Villages

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=100021
The Army Air Defence (AAD) establishment at Gopalpur in Odisha, which lay on the direct path of the cyclone Phailin that struck landmass on Saturday evening, saved the four adjoining village population located in its vicinity from the onslaught of the cyclone that left a trail of flattened fields, uprooted trees and damaged power pylons among other things.

The villagers were given shelter in the army establishment and were provided food and other basic amenities before letting them proceed to their homes on Sunday morning. Although the cyclone has abated from the region, the AAD College, one of Indian Army's premiere training establishment, had geared up to not just safeguard its own assets but also the lives of the civilians living around their camp.

Anticipating much of the fury of the impending cyclone, the Indian Army had also mobilised one engineering column with medical and signal equipment and personnel to tackle any emergency. Earlier in the day, the column helped clear the National Highway and other roads enabling communication to be restored at the earliest.

Apart from establishing a movement liaison cell at Bhubaneswar airport to coordinate aerial relief efforts, the Indian Air Force had also positioned 44 of its elite Garud special forces and a rapid action medical team comprising 37 doctors and paramedics in Ganjam district for similar rescue and relief measures.

The Indian Naval Ships Ranvijay and Jalashwa continue in wait in Vishakhapatnam to respond to any alerts for relief even as a survey ship, INS Investigator is currently on its way from Port Blair to Paradip with aid material in case needed. Six teams of Navy divers are also currently at Gopalpur, while ten other similar teams are at Srikakulam area in Andhra Pradesh as part of the Navy's preparedness. At Chilka, Odisha navy divers from the Naval Training establishment also helped villagers affected in the low lying areas that were flooded due to torrential overnight rains.

The Coast Guard meanwhile, launched three aerial sorties on Sunday, to locate the missing merchant vessel MV Bingo near Sagar islands off Odisha coast. The ship and crew still remain untraced even as efforts by Coast Guard are on despite a very rough sea state.

The Coast Guard also rendered medical assistance to 18 fishermen who were washed ashore after having jumped into the sea from their stranded boats off Paradip. ICGS Samudra Pehradar, one of the bigger ships that the Coast Guard operates is currently augmenting the efforts in the sea off Odisha coast.

The cyclone, according to the state authorities here, affected 12 districts covering 14,514 villages affecting nearly 18.5 lakh people. The Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard elements continue to be present in the positions at their locations till the rescue operations are entirely called off.

Although the cyclone passed away without a catastrophic fall out, the armed forces had geared up completely to tackle any emergency that could have arisen as a consequence of the cyclone.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by vasu raya »

We sorely miss the cloud computing infrastructure, sites like IMD cannot plan for capacity since the user visits only peak when there are cyclones so they cannot afford large number of servers, with cloud computing such user traffic peaks can be covered and let IMD focus on content they would like to host. Same with ISRO which gets more eyes only during launches. The .nic guys should know better.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Rahulm,

It is low but not zero. Note that the admin did not listen to IMD and instituted a full scale Super Cyclone evacuation. Even the admin takes IMD with pinch of salt.

I should point out that the only reason this uncertainty and guess work exists is that the IMD has not instituted a hurricane aircraft to sample data within the cyclone. With data sampling none of this speculation would exist and the admin can act on hard data.

IMD actually has an excellent Cyclone web page. Very easy even for aam abdul to follow. It was inaccessible almost every time I tried during the cyclone, but now works fine.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone.htm
----------------------------

The analysis has just begun but one note by a meteorologist notes that Phailin began an eye wall replacement just before hitting land and this weakened it. Essentially a 50/50 chance of this happening at the right moment. We may have been lucky as well.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Suraj »

Damage to infrastructure can always be addressed. In fact, it is an economic boost because it presents an opportunity to replace scores of dilapidated kuccha houses that were wiped out, with proper ones, which in turn generates demand for better overall infrastructure, which builds greater credibility among the folks who'd otherwise cling on to their meager past dwellings about the benefits of a more modern life. A slate wiped clean, as it is.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by harbans »

What kind of force does this to an electric tower?

Image
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Muppalla »

Rahul M wrote:people look elsewhere because IMD is no good at providing their data to aam public, not because their credibility is low.
I have noticed this in recent times. previously, IMD was considered a joke, if they said the day would be sunny people strode off to get the raincoat. no more, people mostly trust their predictions nowadays. even in this case they were accurate to the T about how much rainfall WB would receive from this storm and that's a secondary effect of the weather system.
IMD is very very good using their bulletins on AIR related to cyclones.. Well, it sure does not have the "expected" visibility. The do need to improves their data compilation though they have good data collection mechanism.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Muppalla »

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 1013.htm#1
The Gopalpur seafront is composed of a few shops and some small hotels and resorts standing on the beach itself.

"My shop has been badly damaged in the showers and the wind, but I had promised my customers I would serve them food from today itself.

"Hence, I have opened my shop," said Rahul Kant, who runs a south Indian eatery on the beach.
I wish there is thumbs up icon.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Muppalla »

Super relief: The night govt and IMD saved the day
The storm has passed. Sunday night, as Cyclone Phailin looked set to dissipate within 36 hours, the Orissa government could pat itself in the back for a massive evacuation that helped save thousands of people from India's fiercest cyclone in 14 years.

The death toll in the state stood at 18, most of them dying under falling trees as winds reaching up to 250 km or more battered Ganjam district and with a lesser force other districts. While over 2.34 lakh houses were damaged, less than 12 hours after the cyclone subsided over 'Ground Zero' Ganjam, over 90 per cent of the roads blocked by fallen trees had been cleared.

By Sunday evening, Cyclone Phailin had weakened into "deep depression". M Mohapatra, Scientist (Cyclone Warning Division) of the Meteorology Department in Delhi, said the cyclonic storm now had wind speed of 45-55 km ph, and was expected to weaken further.

Orissa officials attributed the low casualties to record evacuation. In just three days, 9.1 lakh people in 14 districts were evacuated. In Ganjam alone, over 1.82 lakh people were evacuated while another 1.6 lakh rushed to cyclone shelters there on their own ahead of the cyclone.

Andhra Pradesh also saw one of its biggest evacuation operations, with over 90,000 people shifted from coastal villages of the Srikakulam district to 49 shelters within 30 hours. The shelters had stocks of food and other essential commodities to last a week. All these were in place, along with an officer in charge of each shelter, by 3 pm Saturday, six hours before the cyclone made landfall in neighbouring Orissa. This ensured there were no casualties in the district.

The Srikakulam administration drew up lists of villages, categorised them as dangerous, very vulnerable and vulnerable, and sent text messages to over 10,000 people a day before the cyclone. The level of planning was such that special officers had details of families, numbers of men, women and children, contact numbers of village elders and elected representatives, besides information about the number of vehicles available for evacuation.

Adopting a strategy of 'zero loss of life', 247 cyclone shelters were pressed into service in Orissa. However, what made the difference was the 10,000 specially constructed school buildings that housed a major part of the 9,12,848 people who were evacuated from the affected areas. These buildings had been constructed as part of a special plan after the 1999 super cyclone disaster.

"All resources were put to use. This was the largest-ever evacuation at such short notice. We not only provided food and water to all but a week's supply of both was also kept ready at the shelters," a senior state government fuctionary said. Special rapid action force teams were placed at strategic locations in districts and fuel was stocked.

Alarm bells started going off in Orissa soon after a low-pressure area formed over the North Andaman Sea last week. As the Meteorological Department forecast that this could develop into a very severe cyclone, with wind speeds reaching up to 185-190 km per hour and make landfall somewhere closer to Gopalpur in Orissa, Chief Secretary Jugal Mohapatra took a meeting of the Ganjam district administration.

"In 1999, hardly a few thousand were evacuated. We did not have many cyclone shelters then. The Chief Secretary made it clear that, no matter what, vulnerable people have to be evacuated to safer areas to ensure zero casualties," said a Revenue and Disaster Management Department official.

"Mass evacuation was started on the morning of the 10th and by 11th evening, it had been completed. There was information about a few reluctant people in vulnerable areas, and senior officials were asked to intervene. These people too were shifted to shelters by 12th morning. People were cajoled, persuaded or forced to leave," an official said.

At Ganjam, the district collector identified all the vulnerable villages and possible cyclone shelters nearby. By Saturday evening, when the cyclone made landfall, over 3.5 lakh people from at least five districts in the scope of the cyclone had moved to shelters.

In Golabandha village of Ganjam, people were told clearly of the dangers of living within the first 10 km of the coast. "Though people initially resented forced evacuation, now they are thanking us," said a district official.

"The government did microplanning of the work needed to be done after the cyclone hit. Each department's role was identified and they were given targets to complete. There was no confusion over who was to do what," Ganjam District Collector Dr Krishan Kumar said. All supporting agencies were told to report to the district collector.

In Berhampur, the IAF started a mobile medical unit two days before the storm. "We were ready with treatment for snake bites to heart attacks and head injuries," said Squadron Leader Navneet Kaur of the team.


"It was the evacuation before the landfall that helped minimise the casualties," admitted Squadron Leader S P Singh, who was stationed in Berhampur for overseeing the mobile medical units
Theo_Fidel

Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Theo_Fidel »

BTW it is now becoming clear that there was a powerful storm surge. Dwellings all along the coast have been reduced to rubble. Evacuation saved uncounted lives. Due to evacuations there were no witnesses, thats all. These villages should be moved permanently inland to higher areas.

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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Prasad »

One has to compliment the various agencies involved in taking safety measures. Evacuating scores of people and ensuring a minimal loss of life is a job pretty well done. According to wiki the weather recon squadron of the usaf flies c130, p-3d orions and gulfstreams. I wonder if we can get an additional c130 from the iaf slated for IMD use.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by disha »

Infrastructure can be rebuilt. Houses can be made, roads can be laid. This can be an opportunity.

And further Cyclones cause up welling of deep sea water and this brings in new nutrients into the eco system. So yes there is death and destruction and yes there is life and renewal.

IMD and the State administration came through well. Yes they have lot of shortcomings and there is many more miles to go before they can be considered world class, but today their hard work and dedication should be appreciated.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by chaanakya »

Crew of sunken merchant vessel rescued in Odisha

KOLKATA: The missing crew of the China-bound merchant vessel, who were located on Sunday night by the Coast Guard, were rescued early on Monday in Odisha's Balasore district.

The 18-member crew of the Panama-registered MV Bingo was rescued 28 nautical miles northeast of Balasore. They were escorted to the Balasore police station, a Coast Guard spokesperson said.


"The crew was rescued today (Monday) early morning from 28 nautical miles north-east of Balasore. They are all healthy and Odisha police have accompanied them to Balasore police station," the spokesperson said.


The crew members of the merchant vessel went missing after their ship sank near Sagar Island in West Bengal.

The crew left the ship in a life raft after the vessel was caught in the cyclonic storm Phailin Saturday night.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Consider this: All state and national highways in the state were cleared and opened to vehicular traffic within just 24 hours of Phailin hitting the Gopalpur coast. Authorities asserted on Sunday that roads in the interior too would be thrown open to traffic in the next 24 hours. Power connections were restored at many places on Sunday, the day after the cyclone and promised to be restored in all affected areas, except Ganjam district which bore the brunt of Nature’s fury, by Monday evening. It was no mean feat.
The much-maligned India Meteorology Department (IMD) too came out tops by getting it absolutely right with its forecast all through the building up and landfall of Pailin. With the London based Tropical Storm, US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and other western weather monitoring agencies predicting wind speeds of 315 km/hr and even accusing the IMD of underplaying the threat of Pailin, the odds against the desi agency were really high. But in accurately predicting not just the wind speed, but also the time and place of the landfall, IMD has certainly done the cheerleaders of the ‘Made in India’ brigade proud.
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/india/cyclone- ... 69997.html
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by Lalmohan »

such a relief that so few lives were lost - well done to all the agencies involved
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Cyclone Phailin results in floods, two districts badly hit in Odisha
PTI | Oct 14, 2013, 01.04 PM IST

We are not out of woods as yet.

Post Cyclone Flood danger. Rivers are in spate and relief and rescue will still be needed in Odisha. Thereafter it may be turn of Bihar as Deep Depression moves to Bihar and Himalayan ranges flooding Gandak and Kosi rivers and its tributaries.

BHUBANESWAR: Heavy downpour triggered by Cyclone Phailin on Monday led to floods in several rivers in Odisha, with the state government describing the situation in Mayurbhanj and Balasore districts as "critical".

Relief and rescue operations have been launched in the affected areas.

"The situation due to floods caused by cyclone induced rainfall is critical in Mayurbhanj and Balasore districts where major rivers like Budhabalanga and Subarnarekha are in spate following sudden inflow of water," Special relief commissioner P K Mohapatra said.

Though water level in rivers in Bhadrak also rose menacingly following heavy rains, the situation in the district is now under control, he said.

Describing the situation grim especially in Balasore, the official said water level in Budhabalanga has risen to 9.24 meters against the red mark of 8.13 at Gobindpur near NH-5.

Similarly, Subarnarekha was now flowing at 11.7 meters against the danger level of 10.36 meter at Rajghat near Jaleswar, he said, adding 39 panchayats in four blocks of Balasore were under the grip of flood.

Steps have been taken for air-dropping of food packets in flood-hit areas of Balasore where NDRF had been deployed, while water level in rivers in Mayurbhanj has started receding, Mohapatra said.

It is apprehended that river Budhabalanga might further rise in Balasore in view of heavy rains in the catchment areas, officials said.

Similarly, River Jalaka was flowing at 6.73 meters against its danger level of 5.50 at Basta. Small rivers like Sona, Gangahar, Kansa and Bausa were also in spate in Balasore district, they said.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Cyclone Phailin triggers floods in Odisha, claims 25 lives
The death toll in calamity ravaged Orissa on Monday mounted to 25 with four more persons perishing in several areas of the state in the aftermath of cyclone Phailin that triggered heavy rains and floods in some districts.

While 21 persons were killed due to the high velocity cyclone, four others died following floods in Mayurbhanj and Bhadrak districts as heavy rains pounded most parts of the state, officials said.

Giving details of the casualties, Special Relief Commissioner P K Mohapatra said deaths were reported from districts like Ganjam (9), Balasore (3), Puri (3), Nayagarh (2), Bhadrak, Jagatsinghpur Khurda and Bolangir (one each).

Similarly, floods in Mayurbhanj and Bhadrak claimed two lives each, an official said, adding fresh casualties due to cyclone were reported in Nayagarh, Bolangir and Puri. A boy was missing after being swept away by the flood waters of Salandi in Bhadrak.

Most of the casualties were caused by wall collapse, uprooted trees and in floods, while a large number of people were injured, officials said.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Cyclone Phailin shifts to Jharkhand, weakens to low pressure
PTI | Oct 14, 2013, 09.49 PM IST

BHUBANESWAR/NEW DELHI: After leaving a trail of destruction and keeping the state administration on its toes for over a week, Cyclone Phailin has finally left Odisha and shifted to neighbouring Jharkhand as a depression, IMD sources said.

"The deep depression over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas of Odisha & Jharkhand moved north- northeastwards and weakened into a depression. It lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 14th October 2013 close to southwest of Daltonganj (Jharkhand)," it said.

The IMD said that the system would move north-northeastwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area by today evening.

However, one or two places of Odisha may experience rain and thundershowers in next 24 hours. IMD also suggested for lowering the signals at all ports in Odisha. The state of sea would be rough to very rough along and off Odisha coast, it said.

Paradip port resumes partial operations

Paradip Port on Monday resumed partial operations, after suffering extensive damage due to Cyclone Phailin that lashed the east coast two days ago.

The full operations would, however, take a few days more in view of heavy siltation, damages and grim weather.

"We could resume partial operations today despite stormy weather and have allowed 13-metre draft vessels," Paradip Port Trust, Odisha, chairman Sudhanshu Shekhara Mishra told PTI.


The port could restore normalcy to some extent through adequate contingency plans and restoration measures, he said, adding that "day-and-night untiring efforts by officers and staff of the port" also helped resume operations immediately.

He said there is eight lakh cubic metre siltation and surveys are on to assess damages and restore full normalcy.

A vessel MV United Halo with 26,650 metric tonne of fuel on board was allowed for berthing at the port on Monday.

However, berthing of vessels requiring more than 13 metres draught will be considered after survey of the approach channel. Railway operations at mechanised coal handling plant also commenced.

Mishra said it was stormy there with 3.5 metre swell outside the harbour and "therefore, survey of the 10 km long approach channel will be taken up tomorrow".

He said night navigation will take two days to start as broken equipment are being repaired and replaced.

The port had evacuated about 2,000 people from low lying areas and kept them in seven shelters operated by the Port Trust. About 3,500 dry food packets were distributed, the Chairman said.

The port with its hinterland extending to Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, suffered extensive losses due to Cyclone Phailin but massive work is on to restore connectivity and operations.

Mishra said repair of damaged roads is on. Two of the major roads had caved in while about 30,000 trees were uprooted in the area.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

Post by ramana »

Hari Seldon Try to interest your school in studying the Cyclone Phailin responses which made it failing in terms of human lives.
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Satellite images: Three powerful storms—Phailin, Nari, and Wipha—menace Asia at the same time

While Cyclone Phailin—at one point, the strongest storm ever recorded in the Indian Ocean—makes landfall in India, two other tropical storms are also menacing Asia. The images above show the cyclone and two typhoons now. The first is from Weather Underground; the second, from Quartz meteorologist Eric Holthaus.

Typhoon Nari tore through the Philippines with wind gusts up to 116 mph, killing at least 13 people and leaving 2.1 million people without electricity. The storm largely spared Manila, the capital city, which is prone to flooding. Now forming again in the South China Sea, Nari is expected to hit Vietnam on October 14 at a similar strength—Category 3—as when it passed over the Philippines.

Typhoon Wipha is a lesser storm at the moment, but it’s strengthening quickly and forecasted to turn north toward Japan. Wipha, which officially became a typhoon yesterday, could pass by Tokyo on October 15 or 16.

It’s unusual, though not unheard of, for three named storms to stalk the Eastern Hemisphere at the same time. Wipha is the 26th Pacific tropical storm of the year; an average year has 26. Here’s another view of the three storms:
Image

Image


Image
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Re: Super Cyclone Phailin: East Coast India

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Mighty mangroves shield Indian village from cyclone’s wrath

http://grist.org/news/mighty-mangroves- ... nes-wrath/
Sometimes the best way of being protected from nature is by protecting nature itself — and a small coastal village in India is proof of it.
As Cyclone Phailin rose from the Bay of Bengal over the weekend, bringing gales and floods to India that killed 27, residents of Praharajpur did the sensible thing and got the hell out of dodge. As the villagers returned home, they discovered that a restored mangrove plantation helped shelter their vulnerable village from the storm’s wrath.About 40 of the village’s 200 homes were damaged, but residents told Down to Earth that it would have been worse without the mangrove. “In the nearby Sundrikhal and Pentha village, most of the houses have been washed away,” villager Ravindra Behera told the Indian environmental magazine. “We are better off because the forest has taken the initial brunt of the storm.Our elders had made an embankment along the coast to prevent soil erosion in 1975. They randomly planted mangrove trees on the embankment. Gradually, this plantation converted into a mangrove forest. However, it was during the 1982 cyclone that we realized that mangrove can also prevent the storm from reaching us,” said Balram Biswal, another resident.Thereafter, the villagers aggressively started planting mangroves on the island and also made provisions in the village to protect the forests. “We constituted a 15-member forest protection committee from among the villagers. The body penalised anyone who damaged the forests in any possible way and a night guard was appointed and paid Rs 100 per night to protect the mangrove,” said Behera.
Today, a dense forest of tall mangrove trees stands between the sea and Praharajpur. Apart from a shield from cyclone, the residents also get wood, honey and fruits from the mangrove. “
The story of Praharajpur has also inspired nearby villages to plant and protect mangroves coasts. We hope that the forest comes to their rescue as well,” said Suresh Bisoyi of non-profit Regional Centre for Development Cooperation (RCDC).Scientists and village survivors alike tell us that mangroves and other coastal ecosystems can shield our cities and towns from rising seas and storm surges. Here’s hoping that coastal governors in the U.S. are paying attention, too.
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