Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Oct 2013 00:15

In Bihar, if anything BJP may increase its tally. With Lalu out, and JDU and Cong allainace (with vote movement towards it by minority), they look like winning combination, but some hard facts - Cong and JDU vote bank have apposed each other for last 66 years, suddenly that marriage may not be very meaningful (meaning in case of alliance, JDU vote bank will not vote cong and vice versa). Cong is saddled with anti-incum, so in JDU now, both negative will further dip their total. Now if minority vote graviates towards them (thus ditching laloo), yadavs may move towards bjp, n long term, it is so gooood.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 17 Oct 2013 00:18

JDU and Congis will sink together in Bihar.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Oct 2013 01:10

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Karnataka and Maharashtra are 2 states where the BJP can do better with right alliances, but in UP and Bihar, they may be in trouble. I am not sure if their Bihar tally will hold after congress finalizes its alliances. In UP, we all know about the impending Cong-BSP alliance. That will change all this.

BJP can bump its tally up in Karnataka by 3-4 seats and 3 Maharashtra also to neutralize the 5 seat defect in the other states. This then again boils down to what moves the congress has in UP and Bihar.
No - in Karnataka, even getting 12 requires a return of Yeddy, AND a united BJP facing the Congress. Even so, getting 12 looks like a tall order.

I concur, 7 is more reasonable in KA without yeddy. So that creates a 10 seat deficit where MH can give 3 more creating a finally tally of close to 155. So if BJP needs 175+, the 17 in UP and 14 in Bihar needs to go up. So they need 30 in UP and 20 in Bihar. Thats like hitting 30 from 2 overs left, with kumble and srinath at the crease.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Oct 2013 01:13

muraliravi wrote: I concur, 7 is more reasonable in KA without yeddy. So that creates a 10 seat deficit where MH can give 3 more creating a finally tally of close to 155. So if BJP needs 175+, the 17 in UP and 14 in Bihar needs to go up. So they need 30 in UP and 20 in Bihar. Thats like hitting 30 from 2 overs left, with kumble and srinath at the crease.

Seven-eight is reasonable with Yeddy. Five is more reasonable without Yeddy.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Oct 2013 01:38

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: I concur, 7 is more reasonable in KA without yeddy. So that creates a 10 seat deficit where MH can give 3 more creating a finally tally of close to 155. So if BJP needs 175+, the 17 in UP and 14 in Bihar needs to go up. So they need 30 in UP and 20 in Bihar. Thats like hitting 30 from 2 overs left, with kumble and srinath at the crease.
Seven-eight is reasonable with Yeddy. Five is more reasonable without Yeddy.

This brings me to a moot question. More and more surveys (even the ones that are usually congress chamchas) are showing a better performance for the BJP in states than what ground info or our educated hunch is telling us (punjab, haryana, Himachal, Jharkhand, Karnataka). So is there a real huge modi/development/obc etc.. wave that is actually sweeping these states that we are missing.

Punjab, at the end of the day, despite the feedback we have received, they may still get the 2 seats they are projecting.

Himachal too (this is the 6th survey in the last 8 months) that is consistently giving BJP 3/4 seats in Himachal. They all cant be wrong.

Jharkhand, they do have 8 sitting MP's. Last time, I thought all parties went alone, but a deeper look at the results show that of the 14, INC contested against JMM only in 4 seats, rest all they had an understanding and JVM contested all. So it is basically same scenario again this time, just that INC will contest more seats than JMM, which is good for BJP. But i still have a hard time believing the 6 number, it can be closer to 4. Marandi will not ally with the BJP. He makes all this high flying statements and talks as if he some great honest politician, but if you look at his actions, he is behaving just like lalu or mulayam. Third-rate politician he has to ally with congress in the 2010 vidhan sabha polls in jharkhand, now talks of 4th front with AUDF (the bangladeshi party in assam). RSS should be ashamed that he was a part of that organization.

The real thrillers are Haryana, & Karnataka. Where is BJP getting those 4 seats in Haryana with just HJC as an ally. Karnataka, Nagesh ji can educate us more.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Oct 2013 01:59

One thing to understand about Jharkhand, the Vanvaasis do not make a majority (and all of them are not anti BJP). There is by some speculation 30% of pop out of state, urbanized and educated (and almost all BJP supporters). So it is a natural state with BJP affinity. It is a shame that they have not turned this into anotehr Gujarat/MP/Chattisgarh.

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 17 Oct 2013 04:28

odisha poll does not seem right. BJD currently has 15 seats (and based on the latest local bodies polls, it's clear that they have maintained their position). Plus post phailin , i would expect the # of seats for BJD , to go up and not down.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Oct 2013 05:42

muraliravi wrote:I am summarizing the C-voter survey by state for everyone:

Andhra Pradesh: Total 42, YSR Cong 13, TRS 13, Congress 7, TDP 8, MIM 1.
Arunachal Pradesh: Total 2, Congress 1, BJP 1.
Assam: Total 14, Congress 9, BJP 3, AUDF 1, Bodoland People's Front 1.
Bihar: Total 40: JD(U) 9, BJP 14, RJD 14, LJP 1, Congress 1, Independent 1.
Chhattisgarh: Total 11 : BJP 8, Congress 3.
Goa : Total 2, BJP 1, Congress 1.
Gujarat: Total 26, BJP 22, Congress 4.
Haryana: Total 10 : Congress 5, BJP 4, INLD 1.
Himachal Pradesh: Total 4 : BJP 3, Congress 1.
Jammu & Kashmir: Total 6: NC 2, Congress 1, BJP 1, PDP 1, Ind 1.
Jharkhand: Total 14: BJP 6, JMM 2, JVM 3, Congress 1, Ind 2.
Karnataka: Total 28: Congress 13, BJP 12, JD(S) 3.
Kerala: Total 20: Left Front 13, Congress 4, IUML 2, Kerala Congress(Mani) 1.
Madhya Pradesh: Total 29: BJP 23, Congress 6.
Maharashtra: Total 48: Congress 11, Shiv Sena 14, BJP 13, NCP 6, RPI(Athavale) 2, MNS 2.
Manipur: Total seats 2: Congress 2.
Meghalaya: Total seats 2: Congress 1, Nationalist People's Party 1.
Mizoram: Total seat 1: Independent/Others 1.
Nagaland: Total seat 1: Nagaland People's Front 1.
Odisha: Total seats 21, Biju Janata Dal 12, Congress 9.
Punjab: Total seats 13, Congress 4, Akali Dal 7, BJP 2.
Rajasthan: Total seats: 25, BJP 19, Congress 5, Ind 1.
Sikkim: Total seat 1, Sikkim Democratic Front 1.
Tamil Nadu: Total seats 39, AIADMK 28, DMK 5, Congress 1, CPI 1, MDMK 1, DMDK 2, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi 1.
Tripura: Total seats 2: CPI (M) 2.
Uttar Pradesh: Total seats 80, Samajwadi Party 25, BSP 31, BJP 17, Congress 5, RLD 2.
Uttarakhand: Total seats 5, BJP 5.
West Bengal: Total seats 42, Trinamool Congress 23, Left Front 16, Congress 3.
Delhi: Total seats 7, BJP 4, Congress 3.
Union Territories: Total 6, BJP 4, Congress 1, Ind/Others 1.

Overall BJP 162 and Congress 102.

Few more variants has to be taken into consideration.
(1) Should consider merger of TRS and INC post state creation- If there is no Telangana state before election that seven seats from AP will just be ZERO. No kidding.
(2) INC and BSP going together on a huge power to Dalits platform
(3) Maharashtra - SS+MNS+BJP
(4) Haryana - INLD+BJP

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Oct 2013 07:09

debadutta wrote:odisha poll does not seem right. BJD currently has 15 seats (and based on the latest local bodies polls, it's clear that they have maintained their position). Plus post phailin , i would expect the # of seats for BJD , to go up and not down.

debadutta,

isn't that new party that broke away from bjd cutting bjd votes to propel congress forward?

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 17 Oct 2013 07:43

the new party hardly had any impact in the local bodies poll (BJD won 49 out of 66 councils) .
BJP is loosing ground . And Con. party has no leaders , they are just recycling through the same old set of usual suspects.
all in all do not really see any reason for BJD loose.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Oct 2013 07:46

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 277517.cms

In contrast to a fall in Uttar Pradesh, it might improve its tally in Bihar from 2 to 4. The Economic Times opinion poll, done by AC Nielsen, indicates it's bad news for regional players in UP and Bihar, barring the BSP, which is estimated to hold on to its tally of 20 in UP. The SP is likely to slip from 23 to 16.

Similarly, in Bihar, JD(U) is predicted to go down from 20 to 10 and RJD will gain just one seat to bag 5 this time against the 4 it had in 2009.

On the Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle, the poll showed a complete rout for the Gandhi scion with the score reading 50-9 in UP and 47-19 in Bihar. The remaining 41% in UP and 34% in Bihar were for leaders like Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar.

BJP looking strong in UP too

The BJP looks set to emerge the single largest party in UP in next year's Lok Sabha polls, riding a Modi wave that's boosting its vote share. The party's vote share in UP would be 28% if polls were held today, ahead of BSP's 25% and well above 18% for SP and 17% for Congress, an opinion poll done exclusively for The Economic Times by AC Nielsen projected.

The result of the 11 percentage point rise in BJP's vote share from the 2009 figure of 17% is that the party will win 27 seats, ahead of BSP's 20, SP's 16 and Congress' 12, the poll shows.

Barring BJP, all major parties are losing vote share, SP being the biggest loser, sliding from 23% to 18%. The BSP share would drop by two percentage points from 27% to 25% and Congress drop one percentage point.

The complexities of a quadrangular contest mean that while BSP may retain its tally at 20 and SP could lose 7 seats from 23 to 16, Congress could be the biggest loser in terms of seats, sliding from 21 in 2009 to 12 in 2014.

The Nitish-led JD(U)'s share could drop from 24% to 16% and the Lalu-led RJD's from 19% to 12%. The Congress' vote share might rise from 10% to 13%. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP would see a decline from 7% to 5%.

The net result of this shuffle is that BJP could increase its tally from 12 to 17 seats despite no ally. The JD(U) tally could be halved from 20 to 10. Congress might win 4 seats, doubling its 2009 tally, while RJD could gain one to win 5 seats. The poll was done before Lalu got a jail term which makes the fi ndings grim for him.

Narendra Modi was the preferred PM choice for 47% of respondents. Rahul Gandhi was third at 19%. Between them was Nitish, picked by 22%.

The only group among whom BJP doesn't appear to be gaining are Muslims, 48% of whom favoured Congress.

The numbers suggest that a Congress-JD(U) pact could serve both well and take some wind out of the BJP sails. That could explain why 72% of those polled felt such an alliance was likely.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 Oct 2013 08:06

How about breaking JD-U?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Oct 2013 08:32

Muppalla wrote: Andhra Pradesh: Total 42, YSR Cong 13, TRS 13, Congress 7, TDP 8, MIM 1.

Looks bogus as Math doesn't add up.

TRS 13/17 means Congress gets only 3/17 and MIM as usual 1. Why would Congress give away its strongholds to TRS. If they share Congress only, Survey folks are thinking Congress surrenders and takes 3 but gives 13 to TRS? Now Khammam is in TDP kitty and a few more are possible winners for TDP+BJP.

YSR 13 without Congress alliance is tough. Beyond 2-3 districts, you start getting Congressmen who are not that keen on YSRC and can go against YSRC and if AP splits against INC. TDP already has 4 in Seemandhra and given strong current in Delta districts and Uttar Andhra, 15 can be expected.

INC+ may be 22
TDP+ may be 20

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Oct 2013 09:35

muraliravi wrote: The real thrillers are Haryana, & Karnataka. Where is BJP getting those 4 seats in Haryana with just HJC as an ally. Karnataka, Nagesh ji can educate us more.

I did an analysis of BJP chances in Karnataka earlier on this thread (it is on pg. 101). The BJP, in alliance with Yeddy, has a chance only in 14 of the 28 seats. And out of those 14, it will be lucky to get 10. More likely to be around 7-8, if BJP and Yeddy join forces. Otherwise, BJP will win 4-5.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 17 Oct 2013 10:03

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 17 Oct 2013 10:06

According to Nielsen, if BJP is projected to get only 27 in UP and 17 in BH that is pretty bad. BJP needs to get 40+ in UP and 20+ in Bihar if they have to cross 180. With known alliance partners (SS and SAD) they will get to 200. With future partners (TDP, KJP, Chautala, AGP? ityadi) they may get to 220. They will really need Amma for a home run. There is no other way, they should not even try. It would be too risky. A prepoll alliance with Amma close to elections will seal the deal for NDA.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Oct 2013 12:32

will the BSP play ball with the NDA ? iirc they supported the NDA from outside at one point. or are they fearful of Namo cutting into their BC vote banks?
ideologically I dont see a huge gulf between the two that cannot be bridged unlike say the caliphate based vote banks of SP.

Amma is definitely needed. TN tends to swing wildly to one side every election handing out crushing victories to the alternate party, if Amma can score this one, she will have a solid bag of MPs to bargain with...maybe take a important cabinet rank should she be interested in leaving chennai (I think not)

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Oct 2013 13:26

Singha wrote:will the BSP play ball with the NDA ?

BSP is willing to play ball with BJP. The issues on either side are as follows

1) She cant make any overt gesture as long as UPA is in power. It will be suicidal. Therefore public moves are limited and range of actions is limited.
2) She cant again take that risk if she thinks congress or congress B will come to power. Seat sharing post election announcements etc again get impacted by such possibilities.

3) On both BJP and BSP side, power equation in alliance, and what it means for long term future in terms of electorate moving from one party to the other is critical. This ties in both parties from getting together, since both are on "ascendant" in UP (at cost of SP and congress) -- long terms, it may be BJP vs BSP for majoritarian votes (as opposed to secular votes) -- again getting together does not work well.

The above reasons allow only a fairly tiny window in which they can come together. That too post election, based on a very opportunistic alliance (not for reasons of opposed ideologically, but because they compete for the same space in UP)

It is much better for her to tie up with congress since they have high synergies while having significant complementarity in the market place.
(there that should make you feel right back at office)

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Oct 2013 14:16

^^^

The question that comes to mind is why not target her party for destruction. For a simple reason, that, she is not a trust worthy character. I recall her stabbing the BJP in the back at one time in UP.

Moreover, she has supported the UPA at the center over every scam over the last 10 years.

BSP / SP, have to be targeted as B teams of congress.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 Oct 2013 15:32

BSP has a core dalit vote bank which is not breakable at this point. Alliance with BSP has proved disastrous for BJP in UP in the past. BJP should look for FC + non-Yadav OBCs + non-Jatav dalits. That is a winning combination in UP.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 17 Oct 2013 15:49

Delhi BJP split wide open: Vijay Goel threatens revolt

Going into active damage control mode, Vijay Goel has threatened to stop working for the party weeks before the state elections, if Dr Harshvardhan is projected as the BJP's chief ministerial candidate.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Oct 2013 16:01

I think it is a good sign that JVM under Babulal Marandi is coming up in Jharkhand. Everywhere it is best if the competition becomes between BJP and some other Hindu-inspired outfit.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Oct 2013 16:03

Hari Seldon wrote:Delhi BJP split wide open: Vijay Goel threatens revolt

Going into active damage control mode, Vijay Goel has threatened to stop working for the party weeks before the state elections, if Dr Harshvardhan is projected as the BJP's chief ministerial candidate.

Let him do it! He knows that his career too would finish. Delhi is not like Karnataka where there are traditional Jatis and Jati leaders, and where Yeddiruppa could build a personal following beyond the party. Nor is he a Kabir Bedi with a strong personal following. He would be finished. His only strength is as a prominent leader in the Delhi BJP.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Oct 2013 16:04

Btw welcome to planet earth. Congress and BSP are right now talking about alliance (cong initiated). Let's see what happens. Also Cong getting that high vote % in both UP and Bihar, makes you believe that this survey is wrong (and then what other states it has goofed up). Natural vote % of cong in both these states, post Mandal and Mandir was in 5%-9% range. It ahs added no extra caste or combination to it and its unpopular due to all scams. Only two things I see changing here, youths are now 60% of the voter (new from 1990s) and NREGA (rural and urban poor, but then most AAP type jholawala tells you that, Dalit and seculars are most poor, how come we see more votes to cong without vote drop in these parties). I doubt these will contribute another 10% of the votes.
Nielson is the official surveyor of of Cong. The way cong works, subverting everything - SC, CBI, CAG etc. how hard it is for them to subvert Nielson and have them report higher % for itself so both JDU and Maya is willing for a deal. I am least worried about JDU, JDU 16% and cong 13% (even if true), will together be 20% after the alliance. BJP now with Nielsons 33% will only go up. Chalk Bihar sweep for BJP. The JDU and cong allainace will only boost it up, with Laloo getting decimated and good chunk of its vote moving to BJP. UP with Cong/Maya does queer the pitch, but once Yadavs see that they do not have a winning chance (as secular votes have deserted it), as backlash it may come to BJP. Non Jatavs Dalits will also move to BJP. The reason Maya does not get votes of other parties in allaince is, everyone else hates her, except for her core constituency. You make her the face, and every one (except Jatavs n secular), will vote for the other side.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 17 Oct 2013 16:19

So Jat will not vote for BJP or Maya but for own Jatav caste politicians is how it is. Interesting.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 17 Oct 2013 16:21

I take all these online polls with loads of salt.
Because the people who click in these polls don't usually go out on the actual polling day.
And most of those vote in actual polling, are not even in know of what chidiya the internet is.

That said, one cannot deny that BJP's prospects look better. It will do us all a great favor if the urban voter really went out to vote.

Changing the topic, I'm seeing Rahul Gandhi is after the tribals constantly. He first opened up in Rajasthan with a rally in tribal region.
Then he addresses a rally in MP and talks about how the State Govt. hasn't cared enough about the tribals.
We know tribals are a bit gullible and nostalgic in contrast to many of the urban voters who're aware of all politics under the Sun.
But are the tribals untouched by NaMo and are they still going to be so gullible to fall for Pappu charms??
That question keeps bothering me, coz electorate won't take decisive swing by the few and distracted votes of people like us.
It will bend to the votes of tribals that can easily be oriented .. or so the Politicians think.

Regards,
Virendra

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Oct 2013 19:40

suryag wrote:How about breaking JD-U?

Some leaders have already left JD-U and come over to BJP. JD-U MP from Muzaffarpur, Jai Narain Prasad Nishad and JD-U MLA Chedi Paswan have already moved to BJP.

Jai Narain Prasad Nishad could easily win on his own and Chedi Paswan has already defeated Meira Kumar a couple of times.

Otherwise JD-U would break after their miserable results in Lok Sabha elections of 2014. Its a coalition of too many castes and too weak cadre.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Oct 2013 19:45

vishvak wrote:So Jat will not vote for BJP or Maya but for own Jatav caste politicians is how it is. Interesting.

Jats are tilting towards BJP strongly. Mayawati is a Jatav, otherwise synonymous with Chamar, and Jatavs usually stick to her. But other SCs may move away from BSP! Just as non-Yadav OBCs are also likely to move away from Samajwadi Party.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 17 Oct 2013 20:04

OK sorry my mistake.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 17 Oct 2013 21:05

Jat Not equal to Jatav, Dalit, Maha Dalit, this caste politics is very confusing onlee.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Oct 2013 22:25

The wave in UP, if it is there will transcend caste divisions and will give 40 to 50 seats. We have to note in assembly elections people have given decisive mandate to young Akilesh who promised good government. He proved as major failure. NM has a great record as an administrator. That counts a lot with people in bimaru states of UP and BIHAR.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Oct 2013 23:08

Delhi: BSP, SP leaders join hands with BJP

New Delhi: Delhi BJP got a shot in the arm ahead of upcoming Assembly elections as several Other Backward Class (OBC) leaders from BSP and Samajwadi Party joined the party today.

The former general secretary of BSP’s Delhi unit and OBC leader Suman Saini, SP leader Krishna Kant Singh along with some other workers joined BJP in the presence of party in charge of Delhi election Nitin Gadkari and other senior party leaders.

“Those joining are the owners of the party. As I, who started as a worker in the party, got the opportunity to become its president,” Gadkari told the party workers.

Attacking Congress for playing the “vote bank politics”, he said, “Congress is trying to instill fear among the Muslims about Narendra Modi and BJP. More riots are taking place in Maharastra and Uttar Pradesh than in Gujarat. Can anyone say that Muslims are facing any problem in Modi’s Gujarat?”

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 18 Oct 2013 00:01

Predicting only for Chandigarh and Punjab

Chandigarh -- Sitting MP (the sacked Railway minister after corruption) Pawan Kumar Bansal won by about 50,000 votes. out of total of 268,670 turnout, Satya pal Jain of BJP got 94,632 while Bansal got 139,880, the third person Harmohan Dhawan only got 17000 votes.

1. Gurdaspur - Pratap Singh Bajwa of Congress is sitting MP (will hold to win) he is also chief of Congress in Punjab.
2. Amritsar - Navjot Singh Sidhu of BJP (Will hold to win)
3. Khadoor Sahib - Rattan Singh Ajnala of Akali Dal (Badal)??
4. Jalandhar - Mohinder Singh Kaypee of Congress ?? (Reserved for SC/ST)
5. Hoshiarpur - Santosh Chaudhary of Congress (Reserved for SC/ST)
6. Anandpur Sahib - Ravneet Singh of Congress (grandson of Beant Singh former chief minister of Punjab)
7. Ludhiana - Manish Tiwari of Congress (Info. broadcasting minister in current govt).
8. Fatehgarh Sahib - Sukhdev Singh of Congress (Reserved Seat for SC/ST)
9. Faridkot - Parmjit Kaur Gulshan of Akali Dal (Badal) (Reserved seat for SC/ST)
10. Firozepur - Sher Singh Ghubaya of Akali Dal (Badal)
11. Bathinda - Harsimrat Kaur Badal of Akali Dal (Badal) Wife of Sukhbir Badal. (will hold)
12. Sangrur - Vijay Inder Singla of Congress.
13. Patiala - Maharani Praneet Kaur of Congress (Wife of Captain/Maharaja ex chief of Congress).

----

So! at this time Congress has 8 MPs while BJP/Akali Dal have 5 MPs.
---

I predict that Chandigarh Seat will go to BJP while Sitting Congress MPs can easily be taken over by Modi's wave. Congress will probably get 2 MP seats from Punjab (Pratap Singh and Praneet kaur)

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Oct 2013 00:56

Published on Oct 16, 2013
By Nistula Hebbar
Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, Babulal Marandi and Badruddin Ajmal mulling fourth front: Economic Times

NEW DELHI: On October 2nd, when Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi and Telegu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu were sharing a stage in New Delhi, a much publicised pairing, Trinamool Congress leader Mukul Roy made a quiet visit to Ranchi. He was visiting Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) leader Babulal Marandi, not for the first time, but to cement what five leaders of eastern India have been attempting to do in this season of political uncertainty— form an eastern block, equidistant from the Congress and the BJP.

The leaders include Mamta Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress, Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal, Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (U), Marandi and Badruddin Ajmal of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) the Assam based party and between them hold sway in over 100 seats in eastern India. Marandi who is being courted by the BJP and the Congress, has for now decided to play it safe along with the rest of these leaders.

"We have been in touch with each other for sometime, but these are very early days, we are not a formal front or anything," he said. Roy has been playing emissary on behalf of Mamta Banerjee who had earlier tried to get some leaders together before the Presidential polls. "That effort didn't work, which is why this is being done very quietly, and among like minded parties," said a senior Trinamool leader.

The Left, which was traditionally the fulcrum of a third front is debilitated, and unacceptable to Banerjee who feels that she will have an important role to play in 2014.

Naveen Patnaik who has already declared that he would be equidistant from the both the Congress and the BJP had earlier managed a front of sorts to protest against the National Counter Terrorism Centre proposed by the home ministry.

"The Third Front is a good idea," he said when asked about efforts to forge one. Quite obviously, while these leaders have been earlier been in the UPA or NDA in the past, the uncertain political outcome of these elections has created unique problems.

"Instead of committing to either of these national parties, this time we want to see how the numbers stack up. The entry of Narendra Modi and his high pitch campaign has made it difficult to size up allies," said a senior Trinamool leader.

"We constitute just over a 100 seats in the LS," he added. Nitish Kumar, who exited the NDA a couple of months ago is also not averse keeping in touch with leaders. "We are facing elections on our own for the first time, none of these parties are rivals, what's the harm," said an office bearer of the party. In fact, the block is trying to look to further its reach into the south.

When YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy made a laudatory reference to Modi, Mukul roy promptly called him up to enquire about it. "But you didn't hear the rest of my sentence," Reddy said to Roy, "I said that Modi must first assure us of his secular credentials," he added.

The formation of such blocks and fronts, senior leaders say, will now be more common than not, as both the Congress and the BJP tread uncertain political ground.

The presence of AIUDF in this Fourth Front is quite interesting. If this front solidifies, one can expect even the collapse of Congress in Northeast, especially in Assam. Modi is going to cause heavy polarization. Gogoi who tried to show himself as anti-immigrants is going to suffer Modi's rise, but unlike Nitish Kumar in Bihar cannot move towards Greener and get bolstered by Muslim votes as AIUDF as part of fourth front would scoop them up. Congress is going to fall between two stools in Assam.

Similarly having a solid Muslim party like AIUDF on one's side is going to bolster the "secular" credentials of Fourth Front in WB and Jharkhand. TMC would win more Muslim votes in WB and JVM in Jharkhand. Left loses in WB and Congress and JMM lose in Jharkhand.

All this contributes to two things:

Polarization, which means more seats for BJP and
Congress Mukt Bharat.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Oct 2013 01:08

Also explains suddent coalgate charges against Naveen Patnaik.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Oct 2013 01:30

ramana wrote:Also explains suddent coalgate charges against Naveen Patnaik.

BJP needs to do something about Orissa. They have handed the opposition space on a platter to Congress.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Oct 2013 01:57

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:Also explains suddent coalgate charges against Naveen Patnaik.
BJP needs to do something about Orissa. They have handed the opposition space on a platter to Congress.

It seems Odisha and WB are the two places where BJP seems to be sleeping!

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 18 Oct 2013 02:20

Interestingly RJD and SP are not part of any combine whether 3rd or 4th. The writing is clear for these guys. Also as Atri Ji said it is the beginning of the end of Mandal palitics. Maya has not been approached which means she is leaning towards Cong as is Samuel jagan. Amma may very well be the king maker in 2014.

disha · Post by **disha** » 18 Oct 2013 02:57

ramana wrote:Also explains suddent coalgate charges against Naveen Patnaik.

Ajit ke political phatey:

CongI-CBI team Modi ko sone nahin denga or 3rd front hone nahin denga.

The cause-effect of "Modi is (un)secular" and "CBI (on)/or not on Naveen" is so apparent that it is beyond hilarious.

At the same time this manthan is welcome. In a way, CongI weakening Naveen is a good thing, it opens up space for non-dynasty alternatives to come through. In fact all the young workers of some of the parties should wonder - what happens once their dear leader is gone? The only space for them is either Left or BJP. Unless CongIs give up their dynastic legacy, they are doomed and they are not going to give that up. This is the beginning of the end.*

*BTW, I could be wrong, since I think Priyanka Vadra's daughter may be a force to reckon with in future.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Oct 2013 04:09

As soon as Mrs.Vadra comes out all of Vadra's stuff will become election issues. She is DOA.