Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 07 Oct 2013 19:34

NRao,

LCA mK3 is on cards.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 07 Oct 2013 19:40

CJ more like in dreams, there is mk.2 then AMCA and then there might be a mk.3

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 07 Oct 2013 19:53

Sagar G, LCA has another 35 years to serve once inducted. A Mk3 will be no competition to AMCA. It may not be drastically different in air frame and others. MK3 and so on will also incorporate AMCA technologies developed.

Fundamentally I agree with you when you say its dreams (right now).

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 07 Oct 2013 19:56

Chacko Joseph, What is the idea behind mk-3 ?

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 07 Oct 2013 20:03

I am not saying that it will be in competition with AMCA, IIRC there was a report quoting Dr. Saraswat where he talks about the mk.3 variant and he also said that technologies developed for AMCA will go into that.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Oct 2013 20:06

So surplus Polish Mig-21s have found way to US for red air duties and pilot schools across north America.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Oct 2013 20:20

pankajs wrote:From the above report

"for dissimilar air combat training and other 'red air' duties for the US Department of Defense (DoD)"

This is no joyride venture or museum piece. Further

"The surplus Polish MiGs are currently being re-assembled in the US ahead of being used to help train DoD personnel at test pilot schools across North America."

I did take the liberty of interpreting US DOD to mean USAF.

Not going to post more, but nothing new (been happening fro decades) and unrelated to anything "India".

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Oct 2013 20:28

So its been happening for decades. A facet to US war machine, like gifting F-16s to porkies. Russia should plan many more fighter jets of each type since some will find way to such places -along with logistics no?

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 07 Oct 2013 20:30

Cybaru,

LCA developments will go on. Probably, LCA mk3 will have a redesigned air intake, different radar etc. It will incorporate technologies for AMCA.

Look at Rafale development. It is delivering final standard planes only now. Similar for LCA.

Sagar G, yes, he did mention that.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Oct 2013 20:34

CJ,

(On the MK3) Very, very interesting. I have the same questions the others here have.

Will talk about the rest in the LCA thread.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Oct 2013 20:46

An LCA Mk3 without dual engines, is no use on the merits it might add to MCA.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 07 Oct 2013 21:52

NRao wrote:<SNIP> 2) MiG-21? Practice against them? USAF HAS MiG-29s.

USAF has private contractors maintain foreign aircraft for DACT and aggressor training - one such contractors maintained some Israeli Kfir fighter aircraft.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Oct 2013 22:04

SaiK wrote:An LCA Mk3 without dual engines, is no use on the merits it might add to MCA.

Saar it will be a test bed for some of the new tech that has been/is going to be developed for AMCA. So consider it as a step in the process to AMCA and in itself will have improved performance over Mk2. Both are worthwhile goals.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Oct 2013 01:29

Given the Rafale imbroglio, IAF may end up ordering more LCAs.. and it might be a blessing for the IAF itself, which is more and more an expensive fighter oriented force.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 08 Oct 2013 02:56

Karan M wrote:Given the Rafale imbroglio, IAF may end up ordering more LCAs.. and it might be a blessing for the IAF itself, which is more and more an expensive fighter oriented force.

I certainly hope (and pray - not that that has ever made any difference) that you are right. especially the MK1

On a totally unrelated note, I have no idea why an MK3 (in the first place) and then the idea that somehow a MK3 can contribute towards the AMCA - to me - is silly. (Need to take that up in the LCA thread.)

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 08 Oct 2013 06:22

The MMRCA deal and production negotiations timeline was actually extreme optimistic. The brouhaha was created as folks could not distinguish between testing and negotiations. The testing itself generated global warming and people forgot that negotiations are not a part of it. If you take the history of negotiations, the deals are closed at least 2-3 years after RFP. MiG-29, m2k upg deals too approx 4-5 years to negotiate. Production and ToT negotiations are naturally expected to be stretched.

If DRDO is blamed on being promiscuous, IAF too was found overly bombastic over deal signing timeline.

Unless MMS tries a trick on wordings and fine prints and then signs some agreement before end this calender government year, the deal is not likely to take place for another 2 years.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 14 Oct 2013 20:05

Some reality bites(Article in French, used translator)
Rafale en Inde : les industriels visent un contrat signé... en 2015

According to reliable sources, industrial Team Rafale rely on the signing of a contract in India in 2015. It remains between 12 and 18 months of work and parliamentary elections next spring will slow down the negotiations.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 18 Oct 2013 00:02

India to finalize $15 billion Rafale deal by March, Indian Air Force says
Reuters | Oct 17, 2013, 09.54 PM IST

NEW DELHI: India will finalize a $15 billion deal to buy 126 Rafale fighter jets from France's Dassault Aviation by March 2014, an Indian Air Force official said on Thursday, after the deal had been held up by differences over local manufacturing.

India picked the Rafale for exclusive negotiations in January 2012 after a bidding contest against Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft, made by a consortium involving EADS, Finmeccanica and BAE Systems.

However, there were differences over the role of India's state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd in manufacturing the jets.

Air Marshal S Sukumar, deputy chief of Air staff, told an aerospace conference the deal would be signed within the current financial year, according to a statement issued by conference organizer, the Confederation of Indian Industry.

Under the deal, Dassault is expected to send 18 ready-made jets and would manufacture the rest in India. Hindustan Aeronautics will be its lead partner.

Dassault had earlier expressed doubts about the ability of the local partner to make such a sophisticated fighter. Hindustan Aeronautics has been developing a light combat aircraft since the early 1980s with no success so far.

A spokesman for Dassault declined to comment. The French company is still hoping to finalize the deal by the end of the 2013.

India's government wants to encourage Indian companies to partner with foreign suppliers to reduce its reliance on imports and boost a domestic defence industry that is dominated by underperforming public sector companies.

A separate tender to buy and build 56 military transport planes at an estimated cost of 119 billion rupees has been extended by two months, Sukumar also said. The defence ministry launched the tender in May to replace an ageing fleet of Avro jets.

The ministry had originally said the transport planes deal must be struck between a foreign supplier and an Indian private company. However, heavy industries minister Praful Patel said last week that public-sector firms already making products for the armed forces should have been allowed to take part in the bidding.

The defence ministry has said it will look into Patel's complaint, potentially delaying the tender. Many of India's foreign arms purchases run into long delays because of accusations of corruption and bureaucratic complications.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Oct 2013 06:15

That is the hope,sent to the CCS within this financial yr.The problems appear to have been between the outsourcing of component work to entities,where Dassault wanted "freedom" to choose its suppliers,and not face a similar situ that arose with the Hawk.Some sources say that the initial outlay would be only about $1B,as the entire cost will be spread out over 12-13 years.The fee could be paid in April too.Dassault would happy anyway as if this order collapses,Rafale production will cease or drastically slow down within a few years.It really needs this deal as it could then even open the door for other exports.One could also borrow from the French govt. as was done with the M-2000.That the govt. is keen to finalise the deal,is shown by the negotiations on to acquire and integrate Russian missiles with the Rafale.Russia wants us to buy more FGFAs (upto 250),but we allegedly say that we can't do so as we need the moolah for the Rafale now,while the FGFA will only arrive in the future. If negotiations drag on,one could also get an initial sqd. from the French as was done with the Jaguars.
However,if it fails,the EF (leasing) and MIG-35 are "waiting in the wings".MIG officials say that though their bird was not picked it "met all the parameters" and have decades of cooperation with India,etc.,etc.

MMS is visiting Moscow soon.Some of these issues will certainly be on the anvil.We have to "wait,and wait,and wait and wait",immortal lines from Casablanca!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 18 Oct 2013 07:28

we can keep two aspects to any defence deal.. specs & mil specific data vs. business and value proposition data. if we separate these two aspects, then we can get more transperancy into all defence deals. not that any tech non on google is secret anymore. the strategic operationals aspects are actually the best kept secrets.

so, it is time to get more data out, within the limits of secured access.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 18 Oct 2013 11:37

Philip wrote:MIG officials say that though their bird was not picked it "met all the parameters"

Indian officials said it failed, so basically they're calling Indian officials liars.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 18 Oct 2013 13:08

GeorgeWelch wrote:
Philip wrote:MIG officials say that though their bird was not picked it "met all the parameters"
Indian officials said it failed, so basically they're calling Indian officials liars.

I am not supporting MiG claim. Aren't we building 5th gen fighter with Russia without taking it through all parameters and environment?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 18 Oct 2013 14:08

OT for this thread.

When co-developing a particular product with some one else. It can safely be assumed, that it will meet the basic, operational requirements of both the parties.

Having said so, every other competitor failed as well (Exception Ef 2000). We don't see them complaining.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Oct 2013 16:29

OT here but thats same for USA fighter jet. FGFA can't be compared to Rafale.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 18 Oct 2013 17:35

ROFL. Co-dev is a funny word in this context. End of the day, it will be just a mission computer, bells and whistle from HAL which cannot make a trainer and an Air Force which requires eternity to make up its mind and then asks for shiniest brochure. It will be another SU-30 MKI type project.

What is the guarantee that it will definitely perform over all parameters in Indian conditions? They will just hand over their used models for IAF to fly around in India and then wring us for money when we suggest changes.

What is the guarantee that their engine will come on time?

A lot of posts back I have said that the Loses by other mature aircraft's compared Rafale which is still new with recent radar fitment is not digestible. Principles of making an a/c is nearly same, whether it is 4th or 5th gen a/c.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Oct 2013 17:56

The Rafale is going to be outdated by the time it comes, not to mention extremely over priced too.

The FGFA will be more contemporary, but over priced too.

AMCA is perhaps the best alternative.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 18 Oct 2013 18:12

Yes definitely. My plan is to buy 60 pieces from Dassault and ToT critical technologies. Kick start AMCA Mk 1 project, with Rafale engines and critical avionics. Otherwise IAF will be approving AMCA project after 6th gen has flown.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 18 Oct 2013 18:22

How thick we could get?

Still many believe that anyone will do ToT of critical technologies. It is immaterial how many pieces you buy ... trade secret is a secret. Only way of getting it ... is to do it yourself approach. Sooner we get it, better it is.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Oct 2013 18:31

I think there are two dimensions to this great Indian mess:

1) Build IAF numbers and 2) Infuse good technologies and build a great road-map

For the prior I would suggest taking a very hard look at the ASH (if not the Silent Eagle). I prefer to keep away from the Rafale/MiG-35/Eurofighter for the very simple reason that they all represent older technologies AND (more importantly) their parent companies are facing a very slow death (they have to use India to keep their nose above water - a huge no-no for me). Especially France, they are expensive as it is. Let all of them sink - it is good for all of us. The US alternatives will provide a better longer term fit and stability. And, they would be happy with 60-100-144-whatever they get. And, they do not NEED someone else to keep their nose above the water. There will be some down side - new logistics, etc - granted. (Why the IAF wants so many Rafale is beyond me.)

On infusion of newer techs and a road-map, nothing like the AMCA. And, it is not like they have done nothing on it.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Oct 2013 19:01

MMRCA was a competition and all contenders were 4th Gen. Rafale won it fair. Whether some companies are going underwater should not weaken ground for competition itself.

Costing part clearly is separate and should not mix here.

Hopefully the French will understand all this and come on top of all negotiations by offering most flexible deal. Second choice should be Russian simply for it helps in logistics and also improves competition overall only. There is real confusion of OT topics otherwise on one hand talking of no difference between 4th and 5th gen tech to being outdated even when there is no difference.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Oct 2013 19:17

"Competition"? I guess that is why Dassault NOW wants two contracts - AFTER having been through a "competition" that clearly stated that there will be only one contract.

BS. These are only high powered games that some play. And, some of us watch.

Up to India and the IAF. IF the IAF wants plain numbers and does not care for what they get then yes, go ahead with the Rafale. IF the French can start screwing even before the game has started imagine what will happen when they are on.

Anyways, whatever.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Oct 2013 19:29

We can imagine what can happen to rely on war machine that has given free fighter jets to pakis under excuse of terrorism that too within Pakistan! It is out in open not even a game. With allies like saudi that indulge in competitive jihadism in other's countries.

As far as contracts are concerned, what has that got to do with competition. In fact contract negotiations are ongoing and in fact that itself is better than no negotiations logistics outsourced contracts. I am sure people know what sanctions game USA can play regardless and it is no close negotiations but very open.

Anyways, whatever. Its all OT anyways.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 18 Oct 2013 23:50

NRao wrote:The US alternatives will provide a better longer term fit and stability.

Yeah sure

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Oct 2013 01:50

{Mods delete if inappropriate}

Via email:

The IAF could, in the face of Dassault’s unrelenting series of unreasonable demands leading to a total breakdown of the negotiations, take any of the following actions:

—1. IAF could quite easily close negotiations with Dassault citing the company’s desire to reverse all the conditions set out in the very first call for participation as being totally unacceptable; and opt to enter into negotiations with any of the other contestants (Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing’s F-18E/F “Super Hornet”, Lockheed Martin’s F-16IN “Viper”, SAAB’s JAS 39 “Gripen” or the Russian MiG-35) in the MMRCA competition. From the point of view of costs alone; and also considering the larger strategic picture given the increasing assertiveness and belligerence of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) as seen in the South China Sea, Senkaku Islands dispute with Japan and the more recent deep incursions by the Peoples Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) troops into Indian Ladakh near Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO), the Boeing F-18E/F “Super Hornet” may be the most suitable alternative aircraft to the Rafale in the long term interests of IAF and India. {I actually provided a reason. And, there are several more}

- 2. IAF could even forego the MMRCA altogether in favour of larger numbers of Su-30MKIs and deeper upgrades to older types (Mig-29, MiG-27, Jaguar and Mirage-2000), in order to extend their service life, as well as place larger orders of the LCA. More Su-30MKIs would require just an extension of the license terms with Russia and these aircraft would be built in India itself giving better control on technology ownership while reducing the number of types in service. LCAs in larger numbers in conjunction with more Su-30s would lead to a larger heavy and light end and a relatively less populated medium force level; but all built in India with primarily Indian acquired or owned technology. However, the weak middle end of the force structure issue apart, in the long run this option is likely to give a major impetus to indigenous design and development if for no other reason than there being no other choice and for this reason this option may thus be in the longer term interests of the country as well as the IAF.

- 3. IAF could also forego the MMRCA in favour of larger numbers of Su-30MKI (including the proposed deep upgrade of the Su-30MKIs to Super 3011 standard, which would include several Fifth Generation features) and earlier induction of enhanced numbers of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on Russia’s Sukhoi T-50 prototype, being developed jointly with Russia.

- 4. Some of the funds currently earmarked for the Rafale purchase could be diverted towards accelerating development of the LCA’s later and more advanced variants (LCA Mk-II/III etc)12 as well as towards accelerated induction of FGFAs.

The possible options available bring out that the IAF is by no means powerless in face of the apparent bullying by Dassault in the negotiations to finalise the MMRCA contract. Unnecessary delay tactics by Dassault can be countered by IAF. The possible options available make clear that the IAF can ensure its force structure remains as potent as desired even without the Rafale deal fructifying, though with some re working of the long term plans already in place along with a reallocation of available funding. As per reports in magazines such as India Strategic IAF is planning its long term structure to include 272 Su-30MKI, 126 MMRCA, incremental orders of LCA and 144 FGFA, aiming to build up to 42 Squadrons by 202713. In case MMRCA does not fructify the funds earmarked for this program could be diverted towards increased numbers of any of the other aircraft types. While the seller does have some advantages over the buyer in the prevailing situation, however, long term interests dictate that undue advantages will be detrimental to the overall strategic relationship between France-India. Historically, France’s aircraft industry has had its footprint in India ever since the IAF first bought fighters from Dassault in the early 1950s. It would be prudent for Dassault to keep the negotiations for finalising the contract within the boundaries set out in the initial RfI, RfP and Tender.

Conclusion The MMRCA deal has progressed from the initial RfP to selection on technical merits with Rafale as the first choice. However, exclusive negotiations with Dassault have dragged on for over a year with media reports suggesting that Dassault is trying to change the initial terms to evade several crucial clauses regarding ToT, work share to be undertaken by HAL and overall responsibility, etc. All these points were the initial requirements to be met by the vendor. Hence Dassault’s demand for changes is surprising. The IAF does have several alternative options in case it becomes clear that Dassault is not really serious about concluding the contract in line with the parameters set out from the beginning. In the bargain it is possible that Dassault may lose out on this contract as well as vitiate the atmosphere to the extent that in future the Indian military keeps the French arms industry at arms length.

Vivek Kapur
Group Captain Vivek Kapur is Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence
Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 19 Oct 2013 02:08

^I would exclude direct names, unless the real name and ranks are already changed or consent is taken in your post. I am also assuming, that views exchanged over email is private and protected data.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 19 Oct 2013 02:20

the article is a formal shot across the bows of dassault

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 19 Oct 2013 06:42

AM Vivek Kapoor essentially says what I have mentioned before.

1) Dassault will be a bad partner as their negotiation techniques are predatory.
2) More no of MKI's and LCA's.

One point where he says - "The MMRCA deal has progressed from the initial RfP to selection on technical merits with Rafale as the first choice. " - this I disagree up to 75%. The agreement of 25% is on the word "technical" and the disagreement is on the word "merits."

Rafale is a surprising choice and EF win was concluded by most of the analysts who were keenly watching this race.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Oct 2013 06:59

Some have or have had Godfathers. Just taking them longer than expected.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Oct 2013 07:46

The last resort will be more of the same.As I said earlier,like Oliver Twist,"please sir,may I have some more?",will be the IAF's plea.For Dassault to lose the MMRCA deal after winning the competition ,would spell a death-knell to its future in the global combat aircraft stakes.Sweden has already made substantial inroads into the market,carving out a niche with the Gripen,low cost and low operating costs ,affordable to middle-ranking powers.The French have to mainly compete with the US and Russia at the qualitative level.The US armtwists its allies into buying its wares and the Russians look to their "old friends" for sales,with their very capable and less expensive wares than western ones.The EU nations have banded together to build the EF,its chief competition for the neutrals,as we saw with the MMRCA shortlisting.

Therefore,for the French defence industry,as it is not just the aircraft but the sensors and weaponry that comes with it,it cannot afford to snatch defeat from the "jaws of victory".It will impact badly on the health of many French companies who have long-established defence ties with India.It appeared to have had a spat with HAL over quality issues,but that seems to have been resolved in the latest reports.It now boils down to the final bean counting.Both the PM and DM are off to Russia.They surely will discuss the FGFA and poss. alternative offers in case the Rafale crashlands,MKIs and MIGs already being the mainstay of our air fleet.The French will be watching very closely and in my opinion,will compromise at the 11th hour!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Oct 2013 11:22

I doubt more MKI or LCA is a substitute for Rafale as the "M" in MMRCA stands for medium fighter and IAF has categorised the former and latter as Heavy and Light.

I think Rafale Deal will be signed by optimistic scenario FY 2013 before March or next FY 2014 when new Government comes to power.

If for some real bad unforeseen reason Rafale fails to make the cut then it would be better to order more M2K-5 or Mig-35 to build up the medium fleet in numbers that IAF wants .... since IAF operates both the types and is in the process of upgrading a variant of the type .... this would give it a good fighter with logistics advantage.