Managing Chinese Threat

[Virendra]

Surasena ji,

I find the Japanese words difficult to transform into actions and/or solid pressure.
Escalation is unlikely as Japan cannot afford to have a war with China, not in this condition.
They lack a necessary ingredient to wage and win wars against an enemy like China - young men .. plenty of young men to fight as soldiers.
But yes, if India had a headstrong leader and warmed up to Japan furthermore, then perhaps we can offset this imbalance for them to quite an extent. Such a thing to materialize, would need leaders like Indira in India and Indo-Russian kind of partnership going on with Japan.

Regards,
Virendra

[rajrang]

Bangladesh-Myanmar-India-China economic corridor
This corridor would be another opportunity for lop-sided trading and manufacturing activities in favour of China.

It is unlikely that the world's second largest economy needs economic improvement by increased trade with (economically puny) Myanmar and Bangladesh. Instead the reason could be political. In recent years Myanmar has tilted toward the US and the West. This "corridor" that includes India (a respected democracy) in its company, could very well be a move by China to regain some influence in Myanmar. The loss of Myanmar from the Chinese sphere of influence would be a great LONG TERM loss in China's efforts to encircle India. (India must thank the United States for weaning Myanmar away from China in the last few years. Alas if only India knew which international moves by the US benefit India!) Communications pathways linking China with the Indian ocean through Myanmar and Pakistan would be key to encircle India (besides some incidental economic advantages). Once these pathways are well developed and entrenched than China will declare these two countries to be its "core interests" and station military forces there etc. What better way of regaining influence in Myanmar than with India's involvement (and therefore a subtle form of assistance) through a beautiful "corridor" with "economic benefits" for all!

Recall that India already has BIMSTEC for economic cooperation with Myanmar and Bangladesh. Why another "corridor?"

Long term Myanmar and Pakistan are the most important countries in Asia for China's security vis-à-vis the future second most powerful nation in the world (i.e. India in about 50 years). Remember China thinks very long term.

Long term our grandchildren will be contending with China not merely in Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh but also along the borders of Pakistan, Myanmar, Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Who knows on which side Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will be. Then, even if India sues for peace and gives up land, it would have still become an existential threat to our beliefs in democracy, freedom, economic well being and culture. Hopefully the next Indian PM will be someone who understands international politics in his/her "DNA."

Thus, while China has not given away anything tangible at all, it has got a BDCA that would be used to its advantage in the days and months and years to come.

This was the reason behind my "stray" quote above in which I was expressing apprehensions that the present Indian Government need not be in a hurry to sign deals. This can be left to the next Government which being newly elected will have stronger hands.

[SSridhar]

Chinese President Pitches for 'Friendly Neighbourhood' Policy - Business Line

Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the Foreign Ministry to evolve new friendly political, economic and security cooperation policies to tie the neighbouring nations with China.

“We must strive to make our neighbours more friendly in politics, economically more closely tied to us, and we must have deeper security cooperation and closer people-to-people ties,” Xi told a meeting of the top diplomats and foreign ministry officials here.

His speech enunciating a more friendly neighbourhood policy came after China hosted Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Mongolian Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag this week.

He emphasised that the basic tenet of diplomacy with neighbours is to treat them as friends and partners, to make them feel safe and to help them develop, state-run Xinhua was quoted him as saying in the two-day conference which concluded yesterday.

Great efforts must be made towards win-win reciprocity, accurately identifying convergence points for cooperation; making use of China’s advantages in economy, trade, technology, and finance and actively taking part in regional economic cooperation, Xi said.

China should work with its neighbours to hasten inter-connectivity and establish a Silk Road economic belt and a maritime silk road for the 21st century.

China should accelerate the establishment of free trade zones, with neighbours as the foundation stone, expand trade and investment and create a new pattern of regional economic integration, he said.

He said China should continuously expand regional financial cooperation by playing an active role in establishing an Asian investment bank for infrastructure construction and improving the regional financial safety network.

Singh’s three-day visit to China was concluded on Thursday with a feel good factor as the two countries signed a border defence agreement to deal with aggressive patrolling of troops from either side and an upgraded MoU on transborder rivers.

[Cosmo_R]

.... this government neither has any expertise in handling the economy nor foreign policy, nor defence.

+1

It also has no governance nor accountability. It serves merely as an opening act for the dynasty.

[SSridhar]

Japan PM Abe warns China on use of force as jets scrambled - Straits Times

Japan's leader warned China on Sunday against forcibly changing the regional balance of power, as reports said Tokyo had scrambled fighter jets in response to Chinese military aircraft flying near Okinawa.

Verbal skirmishing between Asia's two biggest economies, who dispute ownership of an island chain, escalated as Beijing warned Tokyo that any hostile action in the skies against Chinese drones would be construed as an "act of war".

"We will express our intention as a state not to tolerate a change in the status quo by force. We must conduct all sorts of activities such as surveillance and intelligence for that purpose," Mr Abe said in an address to the military.

"The security environment surrounding Japan is becoming increasingly severe. This is the reality," he said.

[rajrang]

Japan PM Abe warns China on use of force as jets scrambled - Straits Times

Japan's leader warned China on Sunday against forcibly changing the regional balance of power, as reports said Tokyo had scrambled fighter jets in response to Chinese military aircraft flying near Okinawa.

Verbal skirmishing between Asia's two biggest economies, who dispute ownership of an island chain, escalated as Beijing warned Tokyo that any hostile action in the skies against Chinese drones would be construed as an "act of war".

"We will express our intention as a state not to tolerate a change in the status quo by force. We must conduct all sorts of activities such as surveillance and intelligence for that purpose," Mr Abe said in an address to the military.

"The security environment surrounding Japan is becoming increasingly severe. This is the reality," he said.

Wonder what India will (or should) do if China sends drones into Indian air-space?

[rajrang]

Japan PM Abe warns China on use of force as jets scrambled - Straits Times

Japan's leader warned China on Sunday against forcibly changing the regional balance of power, as reports said Tokyo had scrambled fighter jets in response to Chinese military aircraft flying near Okinawa.

Verbal skirmishing between Asia's two biggest economies, who dispute ownership of an island chain, escalated as Beijing warned Tokyo that any hostile action in the skies against Chinese drones would be construed as an "act of war".

"We will express our intention as a state not to tolerate a change in the status quo by force. We must conduct all sorts of activities such as surveillance and intelligence for that purpose," Mr Abe said in an address to the military.

"The security environment surrounding Japan is becoming increasingly severe. This is the reality," he said.

It is time for President Obama to step in. If Japan shoots down Chinese drones in Japanese air space and if China deems this to be an "act of war," then, it should be made clear that the US will respond. For example by moving its' Navy closer to Chinese shores or holding naval exercises with the Japanese and other allied navies in the waters off Senkaku islands. Otherwise, US allies throughout Asia will be discouraged.

This could also be (a) China's technique of testing what the US "pivot" to Asia really implies for them and (b) testing the world by implying that Asia is China's backwater and its' own sphere of influence and others (i.e. the US) stay out.

[rajrang]

Chinese President Pitches for 'Friendly Neighbourhood' Policy - Business Line

Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the Foreign Ministry to evolve new friendly political, economic and security cooperation policies to tie the neighbouring nations with China.

“We must strive to make our neighbours more friendly in politics, economically more closely tied to us, and we must have deeper security cooperation and closer people-to-people ties,” Xi told a meeting of the top diplomats and foreign ministry officials here.

His speech enunciating a more friendly neighbourhood policy came after China hosted Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Mongolian Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag this week.

He emphasised that the basic tenet of diplomacy with neighbours is to treat them as friends and partners, to make them feel safe and to help them develop, state-run Xinhua was quoted him as saying in the two-day conference which concluded yesterday.

Great efforts must be made towards win-win reciprocity, accurately identifying convergence points for cooperation; making use of China’s advantages in economy, trade, technology, and finance and actively taking part in regional economic cooperation, Xi said.

China should work with its neighbours to hasten inter-connectivity and establish a Silk Road economic belt and a maritime silk road for the 21st century.

China should accelerate the establishment of free trade zones, with neighbours as the foundation stone, expand trade and investment and create a new pattern of regional economic integration, he said.

He said China should continuously expand regional financial cooperation by playing an active role in establishing an Asian investment bank for infrastructure construction and improving the regional financial safety network.

Singh’s three-day visit to China was concluded on Thursday with a feel good factor as the two countries signed a border defence agreement to deal with aggressive patrolling of troops from either side and an upgraded MoU on transborder rivers.

This is to give false hopes to all its neighbors while China takes on Japan in the next few weeks/months.

[SSridhar]

Some tidbits from that warning issued by Abe to China on Senkaku Islands, Link to Japan Times

At the ceremony attended by some 4,000 GSDF personnel, a U.S. amphibious assault vehicle was displayed for the first time. In addition to four amphibious vehicles covered by the budget for fiscal 2013, the Defense Ministry is considering buying two more with command functions in fiscal 2014 and more in fiscal 2015 and beyond, mainly for remote island defense.

[ramana]

Tribune writes:

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20131028/nation.htm#7

The Tribune talks to experts on landmark Sino-Indian border defence pact
Pact throws open a window of opportunity
Tribune News Service
Lt Gen Vijay Oberoi
Lt Gen Vijay Oberoi
Brig Pradeep Sharma
Brig Pradeep Sharma
Maj Gen GG Diwedi
Maj Gen GG Diwedi
Lt Gen AS Sekhon
Lt Gen AS Sekhon

Chandigarh, October 27
While cautioning that Border Defence Cooperation Agreement signed by India and China in Beijing yesterday to reduce border tensions is merely old wine in a new bottle as it by passes the crux of the problem, senior defence officers based in the tricity have said that it also provides an opportunity for India to prepare itself to deal with China from a position of strength.

Pointing out that the new pact is just an add-on to the confidence building measures that are already existing and that there was nothing euphoric about it, Lt Gen Vijay Oberoi, former Vice Chief of the Army Staff said the most important and gravest issue, the Line of Actual Control (LAC), is not being talked about.

“Troops and commanders from both sides are already meeting and there have also been top level bilateral visits, but skirmishes on the border are continuing. Even the two special representatives of India and China have been holding talks for the past 18 years, but nothing has emerged. Unless we talk about the LAC, such pacts are just postponing the main issue,” he said.

Lt Gen SBS Kochar, former Commandant of the National Defence Academy who has held several tenures in Jammu and Kashmir, said while there was nothing to celebrate about the agreement, it was a good thing that time has come to review and prepare for tackling disputes with China, which have now been placed on the back burner by China as it pursues it ambition to become an economic super power. “It is towards this extent that the issue of India-China disputes has been taken out of circulation for the time being. China has historically never been in a hurry to settle disputes with neighbours and will bring it up at a time of its choosing, when it is in a stronger position on the negotiating table,” he said. “In the interim we too should develop ourselves economically, politically and diplomatically so we are not caught napping when the day of reckoning comes,” he added.

The real test of the agreement, Lt Gen AS Sekhon, former Director-General Military Operations, said, would be the next summers on how the Chinese respond when the Indian side takes up the routine task of construction of defences and roads. “The perceptions of the LAC are totally different on both sides and there are objections from the Chinese, who are in an advantageous position and have better mobility, whenever undertake constructions of defence or border roads. There have been agreements and border meetings in the past, but tensions along the LAC have continued,” he added.

Stating that the pact is a step forward, Maj Gen GG Diwedi, who has served as military attaché to China and commanded a division in the northeast said the agreement signed in 2005 was not keeping pace with the new environment and given the over-assertiveness of China on ground and the repeated incursions, there had to be a political and diplomatic solution to the issue.

“There have been no compromises on the territorial claim lines and it has to be seen how the agreement is implemented in the coming days. Further two more points of contacts between the two sides have been opened, with the future possibility of a direct link between the Directors-General of Military Operations,” Maj Gen Diwedi added.

Terming the agreement as an old wine in a new bottle, Brig Pradeep Sharma, who has commanded a brigade on the LAC ,said there was nothing great or earth shattering about it as most of the things were already in place and there was a well established procedure of flag meetings, reviews and follow-ups at the highest levels.

[SSridhar]

Tribune writes:

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20131028/nation.htm#7

While cautioning that Border Defence Cooperation Agreement signed by India and China in Beijing yesterday to reduce border tensions is merely old wine in a new bottle . . .

The 'old wine in new bottle' initiative came from the Chinese. They were insistent that India must sign this treaty. They also gave very little time as they wanted this to be finalized for Li Keqiang's visit. The agreement was proposed on May 4 by the Chinese and expected India to be ready for signing it on May 19 when Li came to New Delhi ! The original draft included a ban on any construction activity along the border and for some distance on either side. On the eve of Man Mohan Singh's visit to Beijing last week, the Chinese MEA spokeswoman, when questioned on the Depsang incident, clearly said that the motivation was to stop construction activity on the Indian side.

The intention therefore of the Chinese side is very obvious. The new agreement includes such clauses as "not tailing each other's patrol", "no eyeball-to-eyeball standoff". Do they help the revisionist PLA or the the status-quoist ITBP/IA ?

IMHO, it is not 'new wine in old bottle'. The Chinese are giving bi-lateral legitimacy to their intrusions and evil intentions.

[manjgu]

statecraft wise, indians are pygmies in front of chinese !! indian foreign office needs people like vivek Katju, parthasarty, bharat verma ...

[SSridhar]

Norway Snub Shows Sharp Edge of China's Diplomacy - Japan Times

Mainly associated with conflict resolution, foreign assistance and cozy Scandinavian prosperity, Norway makes an odd target for China’s ire.

Yet for three years, Beijing has frozen relations with Oslo since a committee appointed by the Norwegian legislature awarded the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to imprisoned Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, deeply embarrassing China’s leaders. Diplomatic ties have been gutted, meetings canceled and economic ties hamstrung by an unofficial partial embargo on Norwegian salmon and a freeze on trade talks.

The protracted snit shows the lengths Beijing will go to punish other nations for offenses or perceived slights. It’s one of several relentless spats China has maintained with countries as varied as Japan and Lithuania, aimed at winning concessions and discouraging criticism.

China considers such retaliation the best way to draw attention to “issues that they consider core interests that other states do not at first easily grasp,” said Andrew Nathan, an expert on Chinese politics at New York’s Columbia University.

Yet, such fits of pique also come at a price. Maintaining a grudge against Norway over Liu reminds other countries of China’s poor human rights record, even while Beijing is seeking to be taken seriously on the international stage. China is seen as defining its interests all too narrowly in a way that upsets the usual give-and-take among nations, said Boston University China scholar Joseph Fewsmith.

“I think China hurts its reputation. China needs to think more about providing the public goods that maintain the international system,” Fewsmith said.

The spat with Norway entered the news again this month when the installation of a new Norwegian government offered an opportunity to end the rift.

Instead, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman demanded Norway take “concrete action to create conditions for improving and developing bilateral relations.”

“Whoever tied the ring around the tiger’s neck must untie it,” Hua Chunying told reporters, using a familiar Chinese expression to apportion blame.

But China has not said what it wants Norway to do. While the Nobel is awarded in Oslo by the legislature-appointed committee, the Norwegian government has no direct say in who gets it. At the time of the award, Beijing bitterly accused Norway of insulting China by interfering in its internal affairs and glorifying a criminal.

Liu was sentenced to 11 years in prison after co-authoring a document calling for sweeping changes to China’s one-party political system.

Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, says China expects some at least symbolic act of contrition, although he didn’t say exactly what form that should take.

“We find it difficult to forgive these foreigners who support (Liu’s) views insulting the Chinese people,” said Yan, a hard-liner whose views closely mirror those of Chinese leaders.

China’s retaliation seeks to exact real economic pain. According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, Norway’s share of China’s salmon market plunged from 92 percent in 2010 to 29 percent in the first half of this year. While the Norwegian salmon industry remains robust, operators are wary of what this portends as China’s appetite for salmon grows.

Along with barriers on Norwegian salmon imports, Beijing has abandoned years-long talks on a bilateral free trade agreement and excluded Norwegians from visa-free treatment on brief visits to China. Norwegian businesspeople, journalists and academics have been denied visas for unexplained reasons.

China also was critical of Lithuania for hosting the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled Buddhist leader. Many other nations have suffered similarly for angering Beijing over issues such as the Dalai Lama, human rights, territorial disputes and support for Beijing’s rival, Taiwan. Beijing banned Filipino bananas and disinvited the country’s president to a regional trade meeting amid a dispute over islands in the South China Sea.

Relations with Japan, always complicated by lingering ill will over the war, have sunk to new lows since Tokyo last year nationalized a group of uninhabited islets claimed by China.

In Beijing’s calculus, not all nations are equal offenders, however. Although Chancellor Angela Merkel met with the Dalai Lama in her official office in 2007, Germany is a key economic partner and Beijing issued barely a peep. Beijing also tends to overlook the Dalai Lama’s meetings with U.S. officials in deference to its crucial relationship with Washington.

While Beijing punishing Norway offers little risk, some question what China ultimately gains. Chinese leaders appear to have locked themselves into a game of political chicken from which they don’t dare back down, said Marc Lanteigne, a China scholar at Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand.

Beijing may find other interests outweigh punishing Norway, particularly its desire for economic cooperation in navigating newly ice-free shipping routes in the Arctic and accessing Norwegian expertise in deep-water oil drilling, Lanteigne said.

“I would say that China’s handling of the Nobel Prize affair has accomplished little for Beijing and I think the Chinese government is seeking the best way of breaking the ice, so to speak,” Lanteigne said.

Thus far, though, Beijing seems to expect Norway to make the first move.

[rajanb]

A threat that the Chinese have to handle.

The Tallel than hill and deepal than pond friend has been hit by pakistaniyat

As rec's via email from FP Mag.

China: A car bomb exploded in Tiananmen Square, killing five, wounding 38, and prompting severe censorship online to prevent the news of the attack from spreading. Chinese authorities said they're looking for more information about two men from the country's western Xinjiang province, which has a history of unrest.

[harbans]

statecraft wise, indians are pygmies in front of chinese !! indian foreign office needs people like vivek Katju, parthasarty, bharat verma ...

With the sort of shackles we have put on our FP, you can bring in Tigers and it won't matter a bit, they will be meek. Change the basic assumptions that our FP rests on and you bring in the meekest bureaucrat..he will be a Tiger. This is what people will have to understand.

[SSridhar]

Border Accord with China, a Bid to Avoid Tensions, AK Antony - ToI

Defence minister AK Antony on Wednesday said the inking of a new border accord with China was a "sincere attempt" by both countries to avoid tensions on the border and would help to quickly solve any face to face situations that may arise.

The border defence cooperation agreement inked during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Beijing last week "is a sincere attempt by both sides to tackle the border situation and avoid tensions on the border", Antony said.

He was responding to a question during an interaction with media persons on the sidelines of an event at thbe Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis here.

Asked if it would prevent situations like the April-May three-week face off between troops of both sides in Depsang in Ladakh area, Antony said he cannot foretell if it would prevent such incidents.

"I am not an astrologer," he said.

He added: "The fact that we have adhered to certain procedures does not mean nothing will happen, but there are mechanisms to immediately intervene and find solutions. And both sides are making sincere attempt for peace and tranquillity on the border."

The defence minister said the BDCA would help to tackle face-off situations "as quickly as possible". {Why does he hope the face-off situations will be tackled by BDCA ? That is because, Indian troops will no longer challenge the intruding Chinese face-to-face. The intruders will be expected to retreat all by themselves, not by Indian trops staying put in front of the Chinese in a face-to-face manner and not by any use of force}.

He said the fact that the BDCA also called for more contacts between the armed forces of India and China was a positive factor.

"Another development is there will be more contacts at the military to military level, not only at the higher level but at the field level also. The idea is to develop more trust between the two militaries," said Antony.

"Let us hope for the best," he added.

The BDCA is aimed to tackle face-off situations along the 4,000 km Line of Actual Control.

[Lalmohan]

wont a face to face contact be the same as a confrontation situation?

[SSridhar]

After the 'successful' Beijing visit by our PM ten days back, it was said that there was some understanding on the terrorism issue and there will be enhanced cooperation on this issue. See this post above.

Now, it has emerged that China Backs Pakistan on Terror Amid Renewed Focus - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu

China on Tuesday strongly backed Pakistan on the issue of terrorism, even as Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani held talks with top Chinese internal security officials here [Beijing].

The issue has come under renewed focus with Chinese officials saying they were searching for "suspects" from Xinjiang, hours after five people were killed in Tiananmen Square when a car drove into a crowd and burst into flames.

China has, in the recent past, pointed the finger at Pakistan-based terror groups for fomenting violent attacks in its far-western Xinjiang region, which borders Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Besides meeting with Chinese military leadership, General Kayani – unusually for a visiting Army chief – also met with the Minister of Public Security, Guo Shengkun, who is responsible for internal security matters.

Asked if the issue figured in this week’s talks, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying on Tuesday only expressed China's strong backing to Pakistan on the issue, saying the government here was of the view that Pakistan “has made enormous efforts in cracking down on terrorism”.

“China supports Pakistan in making counterterrorism strategies based on its own national conditions. We are ready to work with Pakistan and other countries to strengthen cooperation in this area,” she said.

Huang Xilian, a Counsellor in the Foreign Ministry’s Asia Department and a top official in charge of South Asia policy, in a separate briefing with Indian journalists on Tuesday also backed Pakistan on the terror issue, saying the country “is a victim of terrorism”.

“All countries in this region should work together to tackle the menace of terrorism,” he said. {By saying this to Indian journalists, the Chinese side has clearly conveyed where their sympathies lay} As for Monday’s incident in Tiananmen Square, he would only say that the government was, as yet, “not sure of what nature it is”.

[panduranghari]

Norway Snub Shows Sharp Edge of China's Diplomacy - Japan Times

Chinese are already behaving like they are big boys. When will India develop such a spine?

[SSridhar]

Chinese are already behaving like they are big boys. When will India develop such a spine?

panduranghari, I see two issues in the question you have asked. The Chinese are not behaving in any different manner today than they were behaving when they were deep in the dumps in the 40s/50s or in the decadal period between divorce from the USSR in the 60s and developing the nexus with the Americans in the 70s. India is also behaving in the same manner in which it has behaved before.

Secondly, the Chinese have amassed an economic, military and political clout over many nations which India has not.

[SSridhar]

NightWatch For the night of 29 October 2013

China: On 28 October, a car crashed and caught fire near Tiananmen Square in Beijing, killing five people and injuring 40 people. Chinese authorities have determined that at least two of the occupants were Uighurs. Witnesses reported the car did not try to avoid pedestrians as it drove along the sidewalk. Officials increased security at pivotal intersections, subway stations and tourist sites across the capital on Tuesday. Police also notified hotels to report on eight persons from Xinjiang in western China in connection with the "incident."

Comment: Chinese media have avoided calling the crash a suicide attack by Uighur militants, but it looks like a suicide car bomb attack without the bomb. This is a serious security lapse because Beijing usually is free from terrorist incidents. Reprisals will be swift and severe against the Uighurs in Xinjiang and anyone who helped the perpetrators in Beijing and en route.

[Lalmohan]

its a bomb that didn't explode properly - hence the fire

i am sure these uighur dudes will have done a tour of duty south of the karakorum pass...

[rajrang]

statecraft wise, indians are pygmies in front of chinese !! indian foreign office needs people like vivek Katju, parthasarty, bharat verma ...

With the sort of shackles we have put on our FP, you can bring in Tigers and it won't matter a bit, they will be meek. Change the basic assumptions that our FP rests on and you bring in the meekest bureaucrat..he will be a Tiger. This is what people will have to understand.

Indian foreign policy is largely based on the presumption that relations with other countries are governed by reasoning and compromises negotiated to mutual benefit. This has worked effectively with all of the nearly 200 countries in the world except the two large neighbors.

In the case of Pakistan, it took the stupidity of Pakistan's Generals and Mrs. Gandhi's statecraft in 1971 to disable this threat for a very long time. Thus even though India faces threats from groups within the territory of this country today, the threat is not existential. (The nuclear dimension seems to be under the control of the army which seems to be a rational entity.)

In the case of China the problem is one of an emerging superpower thinking very long term and whose gap in national power (military and economic) relative to India continuous to widen. Further, as a future (in the long term) second most powerful country in the world, India would also merit special attention and concern on the part of the Chinese. Two implications arise. First, they are in no hurry to negotiate today. Second, the lack of an international border gives China the camouflage (needed internationally) to threaten India militarily should India pursue policies in which China's interests are compromised. Today's example could be if India tried to get into a closer alliance with the US. In the long term there could be myriad reasons including just about any major policy decision of India as well as economic ones! (That is why each time a US leader visits India both sides announce loudly that the visit is not directed against anyone. On the other hand when US leaders visit China I don't recall hearing such loud announcements - keeping India as the audience.)

India is in a difficult neighborhood. There is hope in the demonstrated leadership track record of the US through the 20th century in building coalitions of countries to deal with formidable international threats (WW1, WW2, Cold War) from dictators.

[SSridhar]

i am sure these uighur dudes will have done a tour of duty south of the karakorum pass...

The Chinese invited the then Emir of jamaat-e-islami's Qazi Hussain to Beijing and entered into an agreement with them hoping he would be able to rein in the Taliban (JI is one of its creators) from accommodating, sympathizing, training and funding the Uyghurs. But, it did not work. The JI itself soon came under the Taliban cross-hairs. Qazi Hussain saheb never recovered from an assassination attempt and died soon thereafter due to fear, broken heart and unexpected turn of events. His successor has not been spared either by the Taliban. JI is now persona-non grata for the Taliban, as is also Fazl-ur-rehman of JUI-F. The Taliban also executed Khalid Khwaja accusing him of helping Musharraf in the Laal Masjid operation.

[svinayak]

India is in a difficult neighborhood.

The neighbourhood has been made into difficult region with unstable regional countries by super powers over the last 40 years.

[rajrang]

India is in a difficult neighborhood.

The neighbourhood has been made into difficult region with unstable regional countries by super powers over the last 40 years.

True. Certain powers wanted to balance India with its western neighbor over these years, afraid India will become a threat. But now they need India to partially balance China, so for that to happen, they need to remove the pressure on India's western border and this has been accomplished over the last several years As expected by these powers, India has strengthened its Eastern Command during this period!

So any improvement in the last few years of relations between India and its western neighbor has less to do with a change of heart in the neighbor but more to do with international geopolitics.

[Pratyush]

^^^
I am not sure that, it is advisable forthe nation to rely on the intentionss of an external power, to help it match China.
As they will be quite open to the idea of giving nearly all of Asia to China. While, retaining Japan and the first island chain as base.

Furthermore, for India to be a credible countet weight to China, it must think of its own interests first and foremeost. 10 years of the UPA, lead one to conclude that this govt. Will not know an opportunity, if it walked up and shook hands with them.

[Arihant]

Australia block Huawei from working on its National Broadband Network

Huawei worked very hard on lobbying Liberal Party politicians to ensure that they overturned the Labour Party ban on Huawei's participation in building the network. Huawei is headed in Australia by a retired RAN Rear Admiral, and has on it board Alexander Downer, who was Foreign Minister in the Howard government.

But, good sense prevailed.

The Australian economy is now bracing for punitive Chinese measures.

[Arihant]

Taiwanese prefer independence over unification: survey

However, the poll found that most respondents favored independence over unification if they were asked to choose between just those two options, with 71 percent supporting independence and only 18 percent supporting unification with China.

With regards to identity, 78 percent of those polled identified themselves as Taiwanese, while 13 percent saw themselves as Chinese.

[SSridhar]

China Dampens Benefits of India's Trade Pact with ASEAN - Business Line

China has cast a shadow on the India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Indian industry claiming that it has not benefited much from the arrangement because of the neighbouring country’s more liberal trade pact with the 10-member bloc.

The fact that the FTA is still restricted to goods and does not yet cover services and investments is another reason why it has not made much positive impact, states a survey carried out by industry body FICCI on impact of the India-ASEAN FTA.

“More than 65 per cent of respondents felt that liberalised import regime (under the FTA) has not had any impact on their business,” the survey said.

Survey findings

Only 35 per cent of those surveyed reported a positive impact.

ASEAN countries include Cambodia, Brunei, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Laos and Indonesia.

Under the FTA implemented in August 2011, India and ASEAN member countries will gradually slash tariffs for over 4,000 product lines and eliminate import tariffs between 2013 and 2016.

However, the ASEAN has offered lower tariffs to China under their FTA implemented in 2010, which gives Chinese manufacturers an edge in the ASEAN market, the Survey points out.

Most respondents feel that they have not realised much benefit from the pact partly due to lower duties offered by ASEAN to China, through the China-ASEAN FTA, the survey said.

The benefits to Indian industry could have been more had the FTA incorporated services too where India is more competitive, respondents have said.

[Pratyush]

^^^

It is not clear what the writer is trying to say. Is he saying that India has not benefited from the FTA or is he saying that PRC has not let India sign the FTA with the ASEAN.

[SSridhar]

Pratyush, the more appropriate thing to say is 'that India could not benefit from the FTA' because the lower tariffs offered to Chinese products would not allow Indian products to compete with them. Already, China is a manufacturing giant and India is a pygmy and this disparity in tariffs, favourable to China, does not allow Indian manufacturers to make inroads into ASEAN. This is what the author says.

[svinayak]

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/201 ... china-sea/
SOUTH CHINA SEA

[SSridhar]

China opens new highway near Arunachal border - Ananth krishnan, The Hindu

China on Thursday opened a new highway that links what the government has described as Tibet’s “last isolated county” – located near the border with Arunachal Pradesh – with the rest of the country and will now provide all-weather access to the strategically-important region.

Chinese State media have hailed the opening of the highway to Medog – which lies close to the disputed eastern section of the border with India – as a technological breakthrough, with the project finally coming to fruition after seven failed attempts over the past fifty years.China first started attempting to build the highway to Medog – a landlocked county in Tibet’s Nyingchi prefecture – in the 1960s, according to State media reports, in the aftermath of the 1962 war with India.

With Thursday’s opening of the road, every county in Tibet is now linked through the highway network, underlining the widening infrastructure gulf across the disputed border, even as India belatedly pushes forward an upgrading of border roads in more difficult terrain.

The official Xinhua News Agency on Thursday described Medog as “the last roadless county in China”. Before this week, Medog was the only one of China’s 2,100 counties to remain isolated from the highway network, according to State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV).

What the project will do

State media reports have focused on the development benefits that the project would bring and have sought to play down the strategic dimensions. Local officials said the road’s opening will bring down commodity prices and widen access to healthcare.

The road will also provide access to the border county for nine months of the year. That the government was willing to spend as much as 950 million Yuan – or $ 155 million – on a 117-km highway, with ostensibly few economic returns expected, has underscored the project’s importance to State planners.

Local officials said prior to the opening of the highway, reaching Medog required traversing the treacherous Galung La and Doxong La mountains at an altitude of 4,000 metres. With frequent landslides, the road was often rendered impassable.

Now, the road will be accessible for “8 to 9 months per year, barring major natural disasters”, Ge Yutao, Communist Party head of the transportation department for the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), told Xinhua .

Work on the 117-km road began in 2009, a year after the project was given the green light by the State Council, or cabinet.

The opening of the road comes at a time when there has been renewed attention on infrastructure projects in border areas in India and China.

Last week, both countries signed a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Beijing, aimed at expanding confidence-building measures. The agreement calls for setting up channels of communication between military commands, increasing the number of border personnel meetings, and formalising rules such as no tailing of patrols, to built trust and avoid incidents.

The agreement does not specify or limit either country’s plans to boost infrastructure – an issue that, analysts say, has in the past triggered tensions along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC), most notably in April when a Chinese incursion sparked a three-week-long stand-off in Depsang, Ladakh.

Han Hua, a South Asia scholar at Peking University, suggested in a recent interview that the “basic reason” for the incident was “too much construction” along the border. The Chinese side, she acknowledged, did not have to build closer to the disputed LAC because their infrastructure, as well as more favourable terrain enabled quicker mobilisation.

“If we don’t have the overall collaboration of the military, policy-makers and decision-makers on both sides,” she said, “it will be difficult to avoid such incidents”.

The BDCA, Indian officials said, will not limit India’s plans to upgrade infrastructure. It recognises the principle of equal and mutual security, which allows either side to pursue its security in its own way. At the same time, officials say the BDCA will still help “regulate activity” along the border by opening up new channels of communication, even as the border continues to remain a matter of dispute. {This clause to 'regulate activity along the border' is the crux of the matter. The Chinese, having built all that they wanted close to the border, will now use this clause to intrusively poke their nose on every construction on the Indian side, objecting to them, delaying them and even scuttling them. In November 2010, China objected to a shed being constructed by the J&K government at Demchok in Ladakh and GoI asked J&K government to stop all construction activities. This has led to a stoppage of all rural development projects such as house and road construction here. }

On Thursday, Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Yang Yujun told a regular press conference that military personnel would hold “regular meetings” and “make joint efforts” to maintain peace in border areas, following the signing of the BDCA. The agreement, he said according to a Xinhua report, “summarised good practices and experiences on the management of differences in China-India border areas”.

[SSridhar]

East Turkestan Movement Behind Tiananmen Crash: China - The Hindu

China’s top security official blamed a little-known militant group for this week’s suicide car crash that killed five people in the heart of the capital.

Meng Jianzhu offered no details of the allegations against the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which, Beijing says, is dedicated to the violent overthrow of Chinese rule in the northwestern region of Xinjiang that is home to the country’s Turkic Muslim Uighur minority.

Police said they found flags imprinted with religious slogans among items in the SUV used in the attack and at the temporary lodgings of five arrested suspects.

China’s government has said previous attacks in Xinjiang were inspired by jihadi propaganda and has linked several of them directly to the ETIM.

Mr. Meng named the group in an interview with Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television during a visit to the capital of Uzbekistan to attend a regional security summit.

“Behind the instigation is the terrorist group East Turkestan Islamic Movement entrenched in central and west Asian regions,” Mr. Meng, chief of the Commission for Political and Legal Affairs of the ruling Communist Party, said in the interview.

No one has claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack.

On Friday, additional vehicle barriers were in place along the route the SUV took as it ploughed through crowds toward Tiananmen Gate, killing three in the car and two tourists, including a Filipino woman, and injuring dozens. Extra police conducted random bag and ID checks among the tourists circulating beneath the huge portrait of Mao Zedong hanging from the gate where the vehicle burst into flames after crashing.

Security has been strengthened in Xinjiang, and Uighurs in Beijing have been subjected to increased police checks.

Beijing police said the perpetrators were a man with a Uighur name, his wife and his mother. Police have arrested five people identified with typically Uighur names on suspicion of conspiring in the strike the city’s first in recent history.

The United States placed the ETIM on a terrorist watch list following the September 11 attacks, but quietly removed it amid doubts that it existed in any organised manner. It is still listed as a terrorist group by the United Nations and a handful of other Asian nations, as well as China.

Information about the group’s organisation and capabilities is difficult to come by, particularly its ability to launch attacks outside of Xinjiang, although University of Michigan Xinjiang expert Phillip Potter says the Pakistan-based ETIM leadership has close ties with the Taliban and could be gaining in sophistication.

“The result is cross-fertilization between previously isolated movements, leading to the diffusion of tactics and capabilities that have the potential to increase the sophistication and lethality of terrorism in China,” Mr. Potter wrote in a forthcoming article for the publication Strategic Studies Quarterly.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said America supported China’s investigation into the matter, but declined to call it a terrorist attack and reiterated U.S. support for Uighur human rights.

[SSridhar]

Tiananmen Square Attack Poses New Challenges - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

With officials on Friday saying the terrorist outfit the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) was behind Monday’s attack in Tiananmen Square that killed five, top terrorism experts here have said this week’s incident had underlined “a new challenge” that is likely to significantly alter China’s internal and external approaches to combating terror.

Security “czar” Meng Jianzhu, who heads the powerful Commission for Political and Legal Affairs — which controls the security apparatus and courts — and sits on the 25-member Politburo, told Hong Kong media outlets that the ETIM was “the group that stood behind the scenes inciting” the attack.

The group has in the past claimed responsibility for several attacks in Xinjiang, a Muslim-majority region in China’s far west.

It has also campaigned for independence for the Uighurs, the Turkic group native to Xinjiang that is one of China’s 55 minorities.

Police authorities in Beijing, releasing new details on Friday, said eight people, comprising three families and one individual, had set up a group in September to plan the attack, even conducting at least three scouting missions on Tiananmen Square.

Police officials said the group hailed from Hotan, a city in Xinjiang’s south, close to the border with Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The group had acquired funds of 40,000 RMB (Rs. four lakh), as well as Tibetan knives and 400 litres of petrol, used to set the car on fire.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday said the ETIM had “incited, organised and committed terrorist attacks of various forms over the years and spread the ideas of violence and terrorism”.

“It has been the most direct and real threat to our security, and has damaged the security of other countries and regions,” spokesperson Hua Chunying told reporters.

Experts have, however, been divided on the actual reach — and capabilities — of the ETIM. Ms. Hua said the group was “based in South, Central and West Asia” and had “connections with many other terrorist groups”.

Pan Zhiping, an expert on terrorism issues at Xinjiang University, told The Hindu in an interview that he was of the opinion that the attack bore the signature of the ETIM and was “definitely an organised activity”.

“It is a new challenge for China, and China will make every effort to break the terrorists’ momentum,” said Mr. Pan, a long-time resident of Xinjiang. “We might need some emergency plans.”

Officials in Xinjiang have, in the past, blamed the ETIM’s overseas members, chiefly those active in reported camps in Pakistan, for fomenting attacks in Hotan, the city from where eight of those alleged to have been involved in Monday’s attack hailed.

The issue has become an irritant in China’s otherwise “all-weather” relationship with Pakistan, with Chinese officials privately bemoaning Pakistan’s inability to crack down on terror groups even as Beijing goes ahead with deepening strategic ties in other areas. {Does it mean that China also joins the ranks of the US in not being able to do much with China ? That is interesting, if true. We have to wait for future events and independent assessments to come to a firm conclusion though. As of now, China has enormous leverage that Pakistan cannot brush aside}

Mr. Pan said it was, as yet, unclear whether overseas members were involved in Monday’s incident.

“The Pakistan government is very nice to the Chinese government, but some people from ETIM are hiding in Pakistan and Afghanistan,” he said.

“It is possible that those in exile in Pakistan are directing this terrorist act.” (Sisi Tang contributed to reporting.)

[SSridhar]

China says it will stamp out Dalai lama's voice in Tibet - ToI

China aims to stamp out the voice of exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama in his restive and remote homeland by ensuring that his "propaganda" is not received by anyone on the internet, television or other means, a top official said.

China has tried, with varying degrees of success, to prevent Tibetans listening to or watching programmes broadcast from outside the country, or accessing any information about the Dalai Lama and the exiled government on the internet.

But many Tibetans are still able to access such news, either via illegal satellite televisions or by skirting Chinese internet restrictions. The Dalai Lama's picture and his teachings are also smuggled into Tibet, at great personal risk.

Writing in the ruling Communist Party's influential journal Qiushi, the latest issue of which was received by subscribers on Saturday, Tibet's party chief Chen Quanguo said that the government would ensure only its voice is heard.

"Strike hard against the reactionary propaganda of the splittists from entering Tibet," Chen wrote in the magazine, whose name means "seeking truth".

The government will achieve this by confiscating illegal satellite dishes, increasing monitoring of online content and making sure all telephone and internet users are registered using their real names, he added.

"Work hard to ensure that the voice and image of the party is heard and seen over the vast expanses (of Tibet) ... and that the voice and image of the enemy forces and the Dalai clique are neither seen nor heard," Chen wrote.

China calls the Nobel peace prize-winning Dalai Lama a "wolf in sheep's clothing" who seeks to use violent methods to establish an independent Tibet.

The Dalai Lama, who fled to India after a failed uprising in 1959, says he simply wants genuine autonomy for Tibet, and denies espousing violence.

Chen said the party would seek to expose the Dalai Lama's "hypocrisy and deception" and his "reactionary plots".

China has long defended its iron-fisted rule in Tibet, saying the region suffered from dire poverty, brutal exploitation and economic stagnation until 1950, when Communist troops "peacefully liberated" Tibet.

Tensions in China's Tibetan regions are at their highest in years after a spate of self-immolation protests by Tibetans, which have led to an intensified security crackdown.

[SSridhar]

As the succession war heats up for the next Dalai lama, China is seeing a huge window of opportunity to push in its candidate. The iron-hand with which it says it is determined to snuff out the voice of the Dalai Lama in his native Tibet will definitely be carried out. It will be difficult for a new Dalai Lama, even if he is not a Chinese stooge, to fill the boots of the current 14th Dalai Lama in terms of access to international leaders and projecting the Tibetan cause. That would already give the Chinese some advantage and if he happens to be also a Chinese puppet, as the Chinese are planning to do, the Tibetan cause may suffer a huge blow. The incident involving the 11th Panchen Lama, selected by the current Dalai Lama, and his kidnap by the Chinese authorities indicate that the Chinese will go to any extent to stifle political and religious freedom in the choice of the next Dalai Lama. Though the traditional process of choosing the next Dalai Lama is almost 500 years old, the Chinese introduced themselves in the process in the eighteenth century. The Qing Emperor's envoy in Tibet is supposed to confirm the chosen Dalai Lama by drawing the name from a golden urn. The current Dalai Lama has rejected such Chinese intervention while the Chinese are determined to establish and demonstrate their politico-religious control over Tibet in the selection process. China is going to make excessive demands on India and any perceived weakness would only make them very strident.

[Philip]

Time for the current Dalai Lama to forestall any Chinese candidate by putting in place a mechanism to find his successor.The DL's ,Lama's usually have some insight /clairvoyance into the region where the new DL is to be found,as successors are supposed to be reincarnations of past ones.

Meanwhile the PRC's deadly threat to the US,its plans to nuke the western seaboard of the US.One is sure that similar designs have been planned for India too.One cannot lose any time in firming up our N-deterrent in full measure to deal with a joint Sino-Paki nuclear first strike against india.

This astonishing story below this morning from the Washington Times proves that the Chinese government has published nuclear devastation plans for America as shared in the story and graphic below. Does China and the world now see America as the new ‘axis of evil’, to be reckoned with via nuclear annihilation? With China’s ships now in Hawaiian waters as shared in this story from Mort Amsel, have American wars of aggression upon other nations begun to return to haunt us? Details of China’s plans are ‘chillingly macabre’ according to the Times story.:
“Because the Midwest states of the U.S. are sparsely populated, in order to increase the lethality, [our] nuclear attacks should mainly target the key cities on the West Coast of the United States, such as Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego,” the Global Times said.
Several videos detailing China’s new nuclear submarines are below including China’s nuclear warning to Barack Obama.

Chinese state-run media revealed for the first time this week that Beijing’s nuclear submarines can attack American cities as a means to counterbalance U.S. nuclear deterrence in the Pacific.
On Monday, leading media outlets including China Central TV, the People’s Daily, the Global Times, the PLA Daily, the China Youth Daily and the Guangmin Daily ran identical, top-headlined reports about the “awesomeness” of the People’s Liberation Army navy’s strategic submarine force.
“This is the first time in 42 years since the establishment of our navy’s strategic submarine force that we reveal on such a large scale the secrets of our first-generation underwater nuclear force,” the Global Times said in a lengthy article titled “China for the First Time Possesses Effective Underwater Nuclear Deterrence against the United States.”
The article features 30 photos and graphics detailing, among other things, damage projections for Seattle and Los Angeles after being hit by Chinese nuclear warheads and the deadly radiation that would spread all the way to Chicago.
China’s sub fleet is reportedly the world’s second-largest, with about 70 vessels. About 10 are nuclear-powered, and four or more of those are nuclear ballistic submarines capable of launching missiles.

PS:Check into the Chinese td. in the Mil. page for extra details.

[SSridhar]

Foreign Ministry must green flag bids for Locomotives tender - Business Line

The Railways has raised a ‘red’ flag for bidders for its loco tender, valued at about Rs 35,000 crore.

All bidders will have to get a clearance from the Ministry of External Affairs first, Railway Board Chairman Arunendra Kumar told Business Line.

This move may impact Chinese bidders, {I don't see how. Indian policy seems to be that appeasement of China at every stage, every step would bring peace which in turn would help India grow to such an extent that it could take on China after a decade even if it has to concede ground (pun intended) now} who are keen to break into the Indian railway equipment market, one of the world’s largest.

Security issues continue to dog China’s bid to play a bigger role in India’s infrastructure sector. India has till date not permitted Chinese firms to participate in port development projects, and has also been wary of Chinese telecom equipment suppliers.

Kumar declined to comment on the technical bidding process, which is not yet over. But, he had earlier said that the Ministry had decided not to relax the conditions, as requested by one of the Chinese bidders, CSR.

Two Chinese firms, CSR and CNR, have bid for setting up two locomotive factories – electric and diesel – in India to supply about 1,800 locomotives to the Railways over 11 years. American and European firms have traditionally been key suppliers of high-tech products in locomotives for the Railways.

For the proposed electric locomotive factory to be set up at Madhepura, Bihar, bidders include US firm GE Global, and European firms Bombardier, Siemens and Alstom, apart form CSR and CNR.

Similarly, for the diesel locomotive factory in Marhowra, Bihar, bidders include US firms GE, EMD, apart from CSR and CNR.

Industry experts feel that the Chinese participation in bids will lead to strong pricing pressure.

“There will surely be greater pricing competition if the Chinese firms were to participate. Though the company that wins the project will have to operate in India with Indian workers, the back-office costs of Chinese firms are bound to be lower,” Niraj Kumar, former Railway DG, told Business Line.