Rahul M wrote:problem is that a state police doesn't have the power to force cooperation from another state police, something that SPG for example does have.
The more basic problem is the political control over the agenda of state and central policing. So in a sense, the lack of power you refer to has both its plus and minus points. Minus is what you mentioned. Plus is - that for example Bihar police under various pressures, is not able to use official levers to extract info and cooperation from Gujarat police to frame say Amit shah.
Anantha wrote:If Modi wins, political class may expect a Cairo/Libya like situation in Dilli where a million people may swarm the Lutyens/ other important places and chase some of the crooks out of the country. I believe Baba Ramdev/Anna movements are precursors of what could come when anger spills over. No wonder, the Seculars will try everything to get rid of this man.[...]
If people take to streets do you expect the army to shoot its citizens... not in India
The army just might - actually do so. The Indian state has maintained the essential British imperial need to keep the army detached from politics and identifying with radical trends within the nation. The Brits did it to maintain their distinctly foreign identity yet holding imperial power over India. For post-independence govs, it helps to officially represent this as an antidote to potential for India similar to what happens in Pakiland and BD - carefully avoiding the fact of islamism as a determining factor in such militarization of politics. Internally, the detachment helps to keep the majority under the threat of one-sided potential state violence.
Naturally, this detachment policy is expected to work best when it comes to suppressing the majority and/or non-Muslim militancy. Because these other ideologies have been constantly hammered by the state.
Moreover, even for a future PM Namo, it wil become even more imperative to prevent such crowd outbursts of the majority sentiment at the "capital". Do not expect that he will be that far away from what we get from the secular crowd. The agenda has been so firmly set that NM wil be severely constrained to deviate much from it.
Bihar in general :
(1) there are at least three distinct sources of explosives expertise and militancy network available for Bihar. These are the Terai based islamist networks which have increased their institutional network on the ground rapidly over the last 3 years. Second group is the transnational criminal networks which connect to BD, Nepal and UP - through Maha to the Gulf. Third are the Maoists.
(2) the Terai is rapidly becoming a "free-zone" and a "base-area" for both the reds and the greens. As far as I am aware, the Chinese have or are going to have their fingers in the region too. Sections of Nepali politics favour this. There will be/are ongoing revival attempts for the far NE, ULFA, and connecting them to the supply-chain network based in southern Nepal. The aim is to create a buffer zone around Nepal inside Indian territory.
(3) Bihar is a key in this scenario. They know they have UP in their hands. They have WB and south Assam. BJP's entry on a larger scale in Bihar may jeopardize the link state in the crucial Gulf-Maha-UP-Bihar-Nepal-WB-BD-NE-Myanmar chain. Note that the red+green foreign forces have less of a problem in their penetration for the other states.
(4) Blasts like these are not operated and executed from a very great distance. There was, is and will be a local network, many parts of which will go into deep hibernation now. Some will have already been processed and shipped into Nepal or to the Gulf through the madrassah and dawa networks. But if ever the national intel speaks the truth - they will probably acknowledge that the planning and execution was mounted from zones quite close - Nepal-Terai sector, with possible inputs from UP.
(5) Delhi, National security setups and JDU will try to blame Modi himself and BJP's supposed extremist factions behind the blasts. The handover of the case to central intel/security agencies may actually only facilitate this twist.
(6) Modi is extremely likely to be "taken down". The internal sense of panic has crossed the point to where they will no longer fear the backlash going actually electorally in favour of BJP. A host of foreign forces also have a stake in stopping NaMo. His very economic/management success makes him a problem for several. BJP leadership should perhaps no longer all be present at a single venue at the same time - and rotate or appear at different and not-predisclosed times even if they do want all to appear on a single platform.