Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Does anyone has link to Nielson survey done few weeks ago and released few days ago?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Just for records, Nielson Survey for OCT2013, released few days ago had following to say, BJP 27 in UP (and not 17 what C Voters is predicting) and 17 in BIhar (this was before OCt 26 rally, granted, in Bihar, most voters have already solidified their choices). Depending upon whom you think is the right survey, 20 seats diff is a large one, a difference of who makes govt and who sits in opposition. Wish we could have a running spreadhseet with dates for each of the survey. Somebody wants to volunteer?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
OMG ! CNN IBN just named cong while declaring 'vinash kaale viprit budhdhi' in response to their efforts to ban opinion polls. also declared their intention to go to courts if any such thing happened.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
There is actually a website like that - All surveys, not in tabular form but yes all surveys getting recorded -
http://2014-elections-in-india.blogspot ... chive.html
http://2014-elections-in-india.blogspot ... chive.html
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
I am writing a detail analysis of two surveys just with UP. Request other members, that when they post, please do some analysis so that your post also adds value (and it is not a place that opinions are thrown, for that we can always watch CNN-IBN or Arnab). The major differential in all these polls are the agency doing the survey (and less the TV/newspaper publishing it, unless they have further messaged that data). In that regard, India has very few agencies doing surveys
State UP
Surveyor: Nielsen
Date: Carried out between September 4 and 26, (Some before Modi formally declared PM Candidate and before many of his rallies)
Sample Size: 8500 (only UP and Bihar)
BJP getting 27 seats with vote % of 29, BSP 20 seats with its core dalit vote intact (my interpretation 23% vote)
State UP
Surveyor: C-Voter
Date: (Funnily exact same survey was published by India TV done by C voter, so C-Voter charged money from TimesNow and handed them the same survey)
Carried out (do not have exact dates, safe to assume sometime in Sept/Oct), if someone comes around that info please let me know
Sample Size: Not known, earlier similar pan indian survey had 13,000 sample size (if true, Nielsen, would be more accurate)
BJP getting 17 seats with vote % of 21, BSP 32 seats with 29% vote
If anyone cares to see, either of these guys are lying (unless things dramatically changed when the two surveys happened) or are incompetent. One cannot have this large an error. So to believe in their numbers would be foolish.
My take: These guys are bunch of amateurs doing a professional's job. They do not have the intent, discipline, knowledge and the sophistication to do these kinds of forecasts. They are just there to increase their TRP ratings. MY CT theory is, these channels are using this to shape opinion and force some leaders to form alliances or not form one (as in Mayawati should go for alliance with Con and be ready to be PM, or Jaya has a chance to be PM, so should not consider alliances with undesirable allies)
State UP
Surveyor: Nielsen
Date: Carried out between September 4 and 26, (Some before Modi formally declared PM Candidate and before many of his rallies)
Sample Size: 8500 (only UP and Bihar)
BJP getting 27 seats with vote % of 29, BSP 20 seats with its core dalit vote intact (my interpretation 23% vote)
State UP
Surveyor: C-Voter
Date: (Funnily exact same survey was published by India TV done by C voter, so C-Voter charged money from TimesNow and handed them the same survey)
Carried out (do not have exact dates, safe to assume sometime in Sept/Oct), if someone comes around that info please let me know
Sample Size: Not known, earlier similar pan indian survey had 13,000 sample size (if true, Nielsen, would be more accurate)
BJP getting 17 seats with vote % of 21, BSP 32 seats with 29% vote
If anyone cares to see, either of these guys are lying (unless things dramatically changed when the two surveys happened) or are incompetent. One cannot have this large an error. So to believe in their numbers would be foolish.
My take: These guys are bunch of amateurs doing a professional's job. They do not have the intent, discipline, knowledge and the sophistication to do these kinds of forecasts. They are just there to increase their TRP ratings. MY CT theory is, these channels are using this to shape opinion and force some leaders to form alliances or not form one (as in Mayawati should go for alliance with Con and be ready to be PM, or Jaya has a chance to be PM, so should not consider alliances with undesirable allies)
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Sorry did not understand. Who used 'vinash kaale viprit budhdhi' phrase? Who is going to court? CNN-IBN or Congress?Rahul M wrote:OMG ! CNN IBN just named cong while declaring 'vinash kaale viprit budhdhi' in response to their efforts to ban opinion polls. also declared their intention to go to courts if any such thing happened.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
It is now a soap opera. The folks from whom I am expecting the surveys are yet to put out any state wise details.fanne wrote:I am writing a detail analysis of two surveys just with UP. Request other members, that when they post, please do some analysis so that your post also adds value (and it is not a place that opinions are thrown, for that we can always watch CNN-IBN or Arnab). The major differential in all these polls are the agency doing the survey (and less the TV/newspaper publishing it, unless they have further messaged that data). In that regard, India has very few agencies doing surveys
State UP
Surveyor: Nielsen
Date: Carried out between September 4 and 26, (Some before Modi formally declared PM Candidate and before many of his rallies)
Sample Size: 8500 (only UP and Bihar)
BJP getting 27 seats with vote % of 29, BSP 20 seats with its core dalit vote intact (my interpretation 23% vote)
State UP
Surveyor: C-Voter
Date: (Funnily exact same survey was published by India TV done by C voter, so C-Voter charged money from TimesNow and handed them the same survey)
Carried out (do not have exact dates, safe to assume sometime in Sept/Oct), if someone comes around that info please let me know
Sample Size: Not known, earlier similar pan indian survey had 13,000 sample size (if true, Nielsen, would be more accurate)
BJP getting 17 seats with vote % of 21, BSP 32 seats with 29% vote
If anyone cares to see, either of these guys are lying (unless things dramatically changed when the two surveys happened) or are incompetent. One cannot have this large an error. So to believe in their numbers would be foolish.
My take: These guys are bunch of amateurs doing a professional's job. They do not have the intent, discipline, knowledge and the sophistication to do these kinds of forecasts. They are just there to increase their TRP ratings. MY CT theory is, these channels are using this to shape opinion and force some leaders to form alliances or not form one (as in Mayawati should go for alliance with Con and be ready to be PM, or Jaya has a chance to be PM, so should not consider alliances with undesirable allies)
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Of course money and interests are main criteria for paid media. No one can believe that getting 200 plus seats for bjp Willie easy. Particularly when it is totally absent in entire east and except Karnataka in entire south. It need to win some 275 seats out of some 350 seats it is seriously contesting. That is a huge task. I think a figure around 225 plus cab be active with hard work. With Modi they have put their best foot forward and execution of plans is the question.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
IBN trained its guns on cong and declared cong intentions to ban opinion polls as example of 'vinash kaale viprit budhdhi'.SwamyG wrote:Sorry did not understand. Who used 'vinash kaale viprit budhdhi' phrase? Who is going to court? CNN-IBN or Congress?Rahul M wrote:OMG ! CNN IBN just named cong while declaring 'vinash kaale viprit budhdhi' in response to their efforts to ban opinion polls. also declared their intention to go to courts if any such thing happened.
the graphic of IBN's 'official position' even had sardesai's signature underneath. very dramatic onlee.
not sure how you think cong can go to court against itself.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Opinion polls alone mean crores in revenue for news channels obviously CNN IBN and NDTV will never support it.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
So former PM gets denied SPG cover. But the family of even earlier PM is protected round the clock. Nice.Rahul M wrote:in spite of what he might have said in public, gowdaji had cried a lot to powers that be after MHA recommended removal of his SPG cover. to no avail.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Ok there are political benefits to it. But still, there was a personal, commiserating touch to the way NM handled the family who lost their member in Patna.
When MMS and Sonia went to M'nagar , there were clear barriers which separated them from the crowds.
NM OTOH, sat with them and in effect , was at the same physical level. He even bent down and touched the feet of the 94 yo mother.
This man is genuine.
When MMS and Sonia went to M'nagar , there were clear barriers which separated them from the crowds.
NM OTOH, sat with them and in effect , was at the same physical level. He even bent down and touched the feet of the 94 yo mother.
This man is genuine.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
I thought, if the Congress could not get the opinions-polls banned, then they would go to court.Rahul M wrote:not sure how you think cong can go to court against itself.
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Falling at feet or sitting with the people cannot alone be construed as being genuine. Hundreds routinely fall at JJ's feet.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Thank you stranger, for adding an "alone" to my observation, and making a trivial conclusion out of it. 

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
David Cameron may meet Modi
But of course, no article on Modi is complete without a complimentary line on 2002.
But of course, no article on Modi is complete without a complimentary line on 2002.
The UK government, like the US, had distanced itself from Modi in the aftermath of the 2002 Gujarat riots
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
No, I think it is important for that line to be there.Neela wrote:David Cameron may meet Modi
But of course, no article on Modi is complete without a complimentary line on 2002.The UK government, like the US, had distanced itself from Modi in the aftermath of the 2002 Gujarat riots
To show that how the goras from "distancing" are now kissing Modi's ass.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
SwamyG, I think Neela was talking about NaMo touching feet of elderly for their blessings in true Indic traditions unlike others and not the other way around.SwamyG wrote:I thought, if the Congress could not get the opinions-polls banned, then they would go to court.Rahul M wrote:not sure how you think cong can go to court against itself.
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Falling at feet or sitting with the people cannot alone be construed as being genuine. Hundreds routinely fall at JJ's feet.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Do they realize that this time Modi bhai might not be interested in meeting himNeela wrote:David Cameron may meet Modi
But of course, no article on Modi is complete without a complimentary line on 2002.The UK government, like the US, had distanced itself from Modi in the aftermath of the 2002 Gujarat riots

Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Stranger or not, sitting together and falling at people's feet cannot be construed as mark of genuineness that is my point; or that is a sign of connection. There are hazar areas where Modi excels.Neela wrote:Thank you stranger, for adding an "alone" to my observation, and making a trivial conclusion out of it.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
I expect Modi to say that the unfortunate Swarna Mandir episode and Akal Takht destruction could have been avoided and that the problem was Congi creation.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
^
huh! mention PM, and add an add on!? WTF is wrong with this aam world? they have gone beyond gullibleness to accept such texts in the first place. She has absolutely zero threat. I have not seen even islamic terrorists going after wimmen folks... and being an enabler of pseduo secularism parties, where in the hell is a threat?Modi's security almost matches PM'sThe security cover now available for Modi comes close to matching the one that is in place for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
That is when the "distancing" line comes handy ... !VikasRaina wrote:
Do they realize that this time Modi bhai might not be interested in meeting him
NaMo gives the gora nautanki a very cold shoulder and a very long rope to hang themselves with ...
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Try sitting together and falling at aam stranger's feet first. You can yourself reach the conclusion on genuineness or not. For a 4 time CM, 3 time elected with super-majority., falling at a feat of a old lady (stranger) or a well known personality (Lata M) is indeed very humble.SwamyG wrote:Stranger or not, sitting together and falling at people's feet cannot be construed as mark of genuineness that is my point; or that is a sign of connection. There are hazar areas where Modi excels.Neela wrote:Thank you stranger, for adding an "alone" to my observation, and making a trivial conclusion out of it.
Whose feets did PVNR fall at? Whose feets does Sonia or RaGa falls at - if ever? Any ordinary Indians in the list? Whose feet does the Kejriwal fall at? And NiKu? And Omar? And Jaya? And Maya? And Akhilesh? And ...
SwamyG, you are the one who refuses to call CongIs as CongIs (short for Congress I, common in several Indian languages and just like Dubya is common in American South) and instead calling them INC and conferring the sacrifice of several thousands of Indians on to the feet of Nehru-Maino dynasty.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Have to disagree with SwamyG ji that what Modi is doing is common. Its pretty uncommon in the feudal setup that is India where politicians think power is their birthright and expect everyone else to kowtow to them. I am yet to come across any PM candidate from any party who respects the elderly touches their feet etc on a regular basis, could be that in some cases, the PM candidates themselves were far older, another India specialty
. But still uncommon as a general principle. Or meets them one on one if something happens at an event for which he is not directly responsible. Ppl have died because Peacemaker/mumble mumble at top's convoy security did not let people through to hospitals. Second time, he sent a "sorry" letter. At RG functions, old women come to touch his feet, at max he tries to stop them, not do the reverse. He went to a hospital in MP where stampede victims were there, and it was a full spectacle as if he had deigned to go there. Modi is actually behaving like a human being, and that's a huge change from the power mad politicos we are used to, surrounded by sycophants.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
+1 saar.Karan M wrote:Modi is actually behaving like a human being, and that's a huge change from the power mad politicos we are used to, surrounded by sycophants.
I'd go easy on swamyG. Clearly he's trying to provoke reactions with his tinted comments. And our dhaga hotheads are readily falling for the bait (yeah, been there, done that...)
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Indian traditions are not made by one man or some political party. Stop this whine about someone falling at feet of someone else and subliminally ridiculing indian culture. sick-ularism-effect i'd say.
Glad to watch tamil channel today - show named super singer 4. Guest was Asha bhosle, and the whole crowd one by one fell at her feet at chennai. It was eye pleasing sight where similar hollywood show (forget it, even bollywood would dare to do such thing in a reality tv show - kudos star vijay!), keep the traditions going hail and healthy.
Glad to watch tamil channel today - show named super singer 4. Guest was Asha bhosle, and the whole crowd one by one fell at her feet at chennai. It was eye pleasing sight where similar hollywood show (forget it, even bollywood would dare to do such thing in a reality tv show - kudos star vijay!), keep the traditions going hail and healthy.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
if BJP can manage 220 seats that leaves it need 52 more to 272. fence sitters like JJ and Mamata who are keeping quiet and hedging their bets now would join in - afterall they have been part of the NDA earlier. Patnaik too I believe does not have a significant caliphate vote bank in orissa to appease notwithstanding his claims of uber secularism....dont see what conflict he would have with a pro-growth agenda since orissa is sitting on a unused goldmine in resources but just cannot seem to get its act together and execute large projects.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
+1.
It is so heartening to see a future PM like Modi being unabashedly Bharatiya in talk, thoughts and actions.
It is so heartening to see a future PM like Modi being unabashedly Bharatiya in talk, thoughts and actions.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
SwamyG, It is common in India to see the less powerful bow to the more powerful. Rarely the other way around.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Atri wrote:how about this brainfart.. BJP seat count..
Andhra Pradesh - 4/42
Arunachal Pradesh - 1/2
Assam - 3/14
Bihar - 25/40
Chhattisgarh - 8/11
Goa - 2/2
Gujarat - 23/26
Haryana - 3/10
Himachal Pradesh - 2/4
Jammu and Kashmir - 2/6
Jharkhand - 6/14
Karnataka 14/28
Madhya Pradesh 24/29
Maharashtra - 15/48
Odisha - 5/21
Punjab - 5/13
Rajasthan - 20/25
Tamil Nadu - 1/39
Uttar Pradesh - 45/80
Uttarakhand - 3/ 5
West Bengal - 2/42
Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1
Delhi - 4/7
total - 225 seats for BJP alone..
Here is my take -
Andhra Pradesh - 2/42 ( assuming some coalition here)
Arunachal Pradesh - 1/2
Assam - 3/14
Chhattisgarh - 8/11
Goa - 1/2
Gujarat - 22/26
Haryana - 3/10
Himachal Pradesh - 2/4
Jammu and Kashmir - 1/6
Jharkhand - 6/14
Karnataka 10/28
Madhya Pradesh 22/29
Maharashtra - 15/48
Odisha - 1/21
Punjab - 3/13
Rajasthan - 20/25
Tamil Nadu - 0/39
Uttarakhand - 3/5
West Bengal - 2/42
Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1
Delhi - 4/7
That makes 130/391. (optimistic)
Take out another 10 it will be 120/391(pessimistic)
Bihar - 20/40 (pessimistic)
Uttar Pradesh - 20/80(pessimistic)
Bihar 30/40(optimistic)
UP - 40 /80
total 160 (pessimistic)
total 200 (optimistic)
I still think my

Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Hari ji, will write a bit more..
..
I think its Modis behaviour that it shows humility and that is a huge plus. I definitely don't mean to attack SwamyG for his opinions, the disconnect between his view of what is acceptable/not and what many of the members here think could be that our perspective is shaped by seeing local conditions and how other local leaders behave.
In which case Modi comes across as a breath of fresh air. A point made earlier was that the event of Modi speaking to victims family should not have been publicized. I disagree - it was the victims family which was party to that decision and it was important, that it showed many people in India that a leader is expected to commiserate with his people, and that he is accountable. This is much required. The privacy business from a leader is overrated. Complete transparency is required IMHO, to the max extent possible, if the family is ok with it, and they were clearly not upset.
Not that some flunky calls them up, or releases x lakh rs (going rate for a persons death). Leaders in India are treated by people as some sort of demi-divinity, surrounded by layers of sycophants and security. Modi is an exception to the rule, and one hopes this sparks a change wherein all leaders are expected to do likewise.
Similarly, these small gestures in which Modi is respecting those elder to him, go a long ways in showing somebody who despite his power, makes the attempt to be humble. This is much required. Our so called liberal, secular leaders who are supposed to be the living breathing epitome of goodness, treat everyday citizens as expendable. Modi makes the effort to visit/talk to people injured at an event. When border violations were at a high, Modi took a firm stand and politely sent back a Pak delegation that was in Gujarat.
In contrast, take a look at Mumble Mumble. After 26/11, he sent a peace card to the Pak side, reported with glee by the press. Is there any other larger symbol of contempt of how these leaders think they are above the masses - masses who are crude, can't think for themselves etc and anyways don't need to be bothered about. Media will handle the elite, and the masses will go for sops.
This sort of arrogance is what is lacking in Modi and hence it needs to be seen and publicized every which way. Parrikar and a gentleman from Tripura are similar in their simplicity, Modi takes it one step ahead with these emotional gestures. His count for more, given both the attacks on him, his demonization (which could have embittered him) and the fact that he runs a much larger, more powerful state (hence trappings of power could be more), plus his national status now.
This sort of leadership will at least make other leaders realize that their era of walking around with dozens of chamchas, surrounded by babus and gun toting security, not bothered to talk to the public, is no longer appreciated and smacks of an era gone by.
One can hope. I wish there is an India one day, where almost all leaders are completely accountable to the public, have to use public transport and have to live as we do etc if need be. Then things will change and we will all be secure, have decent infra etc. Not that leaders live walled off in posh areas of Delhi, with fawning chamchas and security.

I think its Modis behaviour that it shows humility and that is a huge plus. I definitely don't mean to attack SwamyG for his opinions, the disconnect between his view of what is acceptable/not and what many of the members here think could be that our perspective is shaped by seeing local conditions and how other local leaders behave.
In which case Modi comes across as a breath of fresh air. A point made earlier was that the event of Modi speaking to victims family should not have been publicized. I disagree - it was the victims family which was party to that decision and it was important, that it showed many people in India that a leader is expected to commiserate with his people, and that he is accountable. This is much required. The privacy business from a leader is overrated. Complete transparency is required IMHO, to the max extent possible, if the family is ok with it, and they were clearly not upset.
Not that some flunky calls them up, or releases x lakh rs (going rate for a persons death). Leaders in India are treated by people as some sort of demi-divinity, surrounded by layers of sycophants and security. Modi is an exception to the rule, and one hopes this sparks a change wherein all leaders are expected to do likewise.
Similarly, these small gestures in which Modi is respecting those elder to him, go a long ways in showing somebody who despite his power, makes the attempt to be humble. This is much required. Our so called liberal, secular leaders who are supposed to be the living breathing epitome of goodness, treat everyday citizens as expendable. Modi makes the effort to visit/talk to people injured at an event. When border violations were at a high, Modi took a firm stand and politely sent back a Pak delegation that was in Gujarat.
In contrast, take a look at Mumble Mumble. After 26/11, he sent a peace card to the Pak side, reported with glee by the press. Is there any other larger symbol of contempt of how these leaders think they are above the masses - masses who are crude, can't think for themselves etc and anyways don't need to be bothered about. Media will handle the elite, and the masses will go for sops.
This sort of arrogance is what is lacking in Modi and hence it needs to be seen and publicized every which way. Parrikar and a gentleman from Tripura are similar in their simplicity, Modi takes it one step ahead with these emotional gestures. His count for more, given both the attacks on him, his demonization (which could have embittered him) and the fact that he runs a much larger, more powerful state (hence trappings of power could be more), plus his national status now.
This sort of leadership will at least make other leaders realize that their era of walking around with dozens of chamchas, surrounded by babus and gun toting security, not bothered to talk to the public, is no longer appreciated and smacks of an era gone by.
One can hope. I wish there is an India one day, where almost all leaders are completely accountable to the public, have to use public transport and have to live as we do etc if need be. Then things will change and we will all be secure, have decent infra etc. Not that leaders live walled off in posh areas of Delhi, with fawning chamchas and security.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Andhra is washout for BJP. Grandly, they have committed suicide there. Should send them a Darwin award for sheer stupidity.Atri wrote:how about this brainfart.. BJP seat count..
Andhra Pradesh - 4/42
Actually, BJP has won both seats in AP in the past (2004). Possible for them to repeat the feat again. At least, Kiren Rijiju has a good chance.Arunachal Pradesh - 1/2
Possibly a bit more, particularly if the Congress allies with AUDF. I would say they can retain their old number - 4 seats.Assam - 3/14
A bit too optimistic, particularly if the Congress goes in alliance with RJD-LJP. More likely to be around 20 without the alliance, and around 15/40 with the alliance.Bihar - 25/40
Possible in all states.Chhattisgarh - 8/11
Goa - 2/2
Gujarat - 23/26
If they go in an alliance with INLD, yes it is possible. Otherwise, I would say 1 or 2 at the most.Haryana - 3/10
All possible.Himachal Pradesh - 2/4
Jammu and Kashmir - 2/6
Jharkhand - 6/14
Hmm - a bit on the high side. More likely to be around 10, at the best.Karnataka 14/28
Again a bit on the high side. 20/29 is the best they can hope for.Madhya Pradesh 24/29
You should know better about this.Maharashtra - 15/48
Most unlikely. Likely to be 0. May just win 1 seat, if Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo in Bolangir, Kharabela Swain in Balasore, or Juel Oram in Sundargarh get lucky. More than one getting lucky - most unlikely.Odisha - 5/21
Don't think BJP is even contesting 5 seats. Usually, it is 3 for BJP, 10 for SAD. And of the three seats the BJP is going to contest, Hoshiarpur and Amritsar (particularly if Sidhu contests) are possible. Gurdaspur - not so sure. The BJP in Punjab is disintegrating due to bad management.Punjab - 5/13
Tricky. 15/25 is more likely.Rajasthan - 20/25
Kanyakumari is the only seat where the BJP is in with a good chance.Tamil Nadu - 1/39
You are very optimistic Atri-ji. More likely to be around 30. 20, if Congress-BSP ally.Uttar Pradesh - 45/80
Very possible.Uttarakhand - 3/5
Eh eh? Which two seats are you giving the BJP? Can they get deposit back in 2 seats on their own?West Bengal - 2/42
However, now since Congress has set the precedent, if the BJP goes with Gorkhaland in its manifesto, they may win Darjeeling (and even that depends on whether the Gorkhas can rig more in the hills than the Communists and Mamata Di can in the plains). If they go with both Gorkhaland and Kamtapur in their manifesto, they can try to get another two-three seats (Alipur Duars and maybe Jalpaiguri, and Kooch Behar). Dhubri in Assam is irrevocably lost, Raiganj, and other central Bengal regions also gone.
All possible.Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1
Delhi - 4/7
170-180 seats for the BJP on its own.total - 225 seats for BJP alone..
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Hari garu, why and what for would I provoke? A comment was made, and I presented my views. Modi has so many good things going for him. I personally do not think such acts from politicians can be used as means to assess them.Hari Seldon wrote:+1 saar.Karan M wrote:Modi is actually behaving like a human being, and that's a huge change from the power mad politicos we are used to, surrounded by sycophants.
I'd go easy on swamyG. Clearly he's trying to provoke reactions with his tinted comments. And our dhaga hotheads are readily falling for the bait (yeah, been there, done that...)
If there is a comment that is different from another, it is provocation?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
ISI may use Khalistani terrorists to target Modi, IB warns
Deeptiman Tiwary & Bharti Jain, TNN | Nov 5, 2013, 02.00 AM IST
NEW DELHI: The Centre has rushed to tighten security around Gujarat CM Narendra Modi following an intelligence alert about an ISI plot to use Khalistani terrorists to eliminate BJP's PM candidate. On October 16, Modi was targeted by Indian Mujahideen (IM), a terror outfit nurtured by Pakistan's spy agency.
Security around Modi has now been ramped up by a three-layer cordon, a special security drill and advance security liaisioning (ASL) — requiring coordination of central and state forces — made mandatory for all his public engagements.
As part of the stepped up security, Modi now has three layers of protection: one group to take on any attackers, a second to provide cover and a third to get him to safety. The Gujarat CM, who has been on the hit list of several jehadi outfits such as IM that hold him responsible for the 2002 Gujarat riots, already enjoys Z plus security of National Security Guard (NSG).
The ASL, added to his security detail, will make sure that each time Modi travels outside Gujarat, there is a meeting among Gujarat Police officials, an NSG representative, IB station chief, DGP of the host state and other relevant agencies to ensure foolproof security. The entire route from the VIP's arrival, meeting venue, number of people to be granted access will be discussed, scrutinized and sanitized by local police, as directed after the ASL meeting. Sources said this drill was not properly carried out during Modi's Patna rally.
Modi's security almost matches PM's
The security cover now available for Modi comes close to matching the one that is in place for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi — one important difference being that he will not have the cover of the elite Special Protection Group (SPG), which is mandated to guard only PMs, serving and out of office, and their families.
MHA sources said giving ASL facility is the way out to avoid amending SPG Act and yet provide upgraded peripheral security to Modi.
According to IB sources, the agency has gathered intelligence on an alleged ISI plot to use Pakistan-based Khalistani holdouts to stage a hit on Modi, who has been addressing rallies across the country. Rendered ideologically orphaned following the demise of their secessionist cause and marooned in Pakistan, the Khalistani terrorists are dependent on their paymaster, the generals in the ISI, for sheer survival.
Efforts to reactivate and use them for other goals of the ISI, which played a key role in stoking the insurgency in Punjab, have been on over two years, with IB and other counter-terror agencies coming across plots like one involving Khalistani outfit Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) to target the 2010 Commonwealth Games.
With intelligence agencies and police heightening their surveillance on IM and other jehadi outfits, enlisting BKI may make tactical sense too.
Sources in IB suspect that it was IM's founder Riyaz Bhatkal, being sheltered by the ISI in Pakistan, who instructed outfit's lead operative Tehsin Akhtar alias Monu to carry out the bomb attack on Modi's rally in Patna on October 27. Monu and his associates brutally exploited the inadequacies of Bihar Police to pepper Gandhi Maidan — the venue of Modi's rally — with 16 bombs.
Imtiaz Ansari, one of the bombers arrested on the day of the blasts, told Patna Police that they had planned to set off a stampede so that a large number of people, particularly women and children, get killed in the panicked rush. Five persons were killed, but the toll could have been much higher if people, particularly those packed in the enclosures close to the dais, had panicked. Two bombs had been planted near the rostrum.
The emphasis on keeping an evacuation plan is being seen in the context of the failure of Bihar Police to have one at Patna.
Agencies also seem to have derived an important lesson from the absence so far of mandatory ASL for Modi. The exercise was done at Patna only at the insistence of IB.
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorist Abdul Kareem Tunda, who was arrested earlier this year after having been on the run for long, had told his interrogators about the ISI's efforts to build a nexus between LeT and BKI. He also said that he had sent a consignment of explosives as part of the plan to attack the Commonwealth Games.
Last year, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) had registered an FIR in connection with clandestine foreign funding of BKI activities and efforts to revive the outfit. The FIR had alleged that money collected in the name of welfare 1984 riots victims by certain organizations was allegedly being diverted to Khalistani militant outfits.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 234362.cms
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Saar, with all due respect, the moment you equated/compared NM's act of showing respect to an elderly lady with Jaya getting respect shown to herself (the Non-sequiter inconsistency is just the top of the pisko iceberg in this line of reasoning)... I could see the whole edifice going downhill into a micro-flame war. Good that the dhaga didn't see too many fireworks over that though....SwamyG wrote:If there is a comment that is different from another, it is provocation?

Oh, puleeze, we know each other well enough to know where we stand w.r.t. NM. We also know we don;t have to agree on every single nuance, besides. So why worry, have curry...
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Swamy saar, the JJ example is of people falling at the feet of the more powerful hoping for favours. modi's case is of a very powerful man touching the feet of the utterly powerless in comparison (except a single vote).SwamyG wrote:Stranger or not, sitting together and falling at people's feet cannot be construed as mark of genuineness that is my point; or that is a sign of connection. There are hazar areas where Modi excels.Neela wrote:Thank you stranger, for adding an "alone" to my observation, and making a trivial conclusion out of it.
even if this is not a genuine thing, at worst it is arrogance of humility. I will take it with both hands any day, over the other mental problems that ail India's political landscape.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
ISI might use Doggy Singh too!
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
The govt happily says ISI is targeting Modi but nobody is issuing a warning to it--"anything happens and you are toast"? It's sad to see just how far out of whack the country is today.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Mafia may think gas from his other end will kill Modi. It is only good at intoxicating to secular gays and pappu. But it is only that.ramana wrote:ISI might use Doggy Singh too!