Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Malayappan
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Malayappan »

nageshks wrote: The BJP already has 2% in TN, saar (well, 1.91%). Is the Modi wave not going to net another 2-3%?

They had 6% in Chennai South and 4% in Chennai North in 2009. Is 10% too much to expect in Chennai this time?
Am with you, nearly, on both!

Being a marginal party there, we have a difference between actual vote share and polled vote share. 2 % (what you point out as 1.91%) is the polled share. Many (I estimate it at 2-3%) of those who would have otherwise voted BJP vote tactically in order not to 'waste' their votes. Almost always this section votes ADMK. This is the main explanation for Jayalalitha's smugness. She gets BJP votes without actually having include them in election fight, coinceding seats, managing 'anti-' forces etc. Unfortunately for BJP, their own voters do not fully appreciate the long term impact of this - have spoken to many!

Modi wave is a wildcard. No doubt there will be an impact, but will it alter actually voting behavior and make those folks to press Lotus? Especially when it will only make an impact, not win in most (ie 38) seats!? Need to see. Shades of WB here too. The party will need to expand vote share to something like 15-18% statewide in as few elections as possible to impact politics. In OR even that was not enough!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by niran »

ramana wrote:In Delhi, what are the BSP chances?

Is it allying with INC or AAP?
in the last election BSP got around 7% votes and BJP 38% Congress 40%
the election prior to that BSP ==o BJP 36% Congress 48%
which means the 8% congress lost around 1% went to BJP and rest to BSP
this time even if the dynamics remains the same as last time election(which is nigh impossible)
AAP is supposed to eat into Congress votes(per the internal survey of both Congress and BJP)
and even if BJP remains staganent with 38% congress at the best guesstimate will poll 30% and the winner will be BJP. :rotfl:
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

niran suppose there is a shortfall for BJP in Delhi. Where will BSP go? If not to BJP what is BJP doing to ensure its not winning.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

ramana wrote:niran suppose there is a shortfall for BJP in Delhi. Where will BSP go? If not to BJP what is BJP doing to ensure its not winning.
BSP will take congress votes. If it does not stand, 90% of its voters will vote to congress. In other words, post assembly elections all these will go into calculation of INC for LS elections. BSP's vote share in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are very important for INC to make an alliance with BSP. All these will help Maya to negotiate the unthinkable.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by niran »

ramana wrote:niran suppose there is a shortfall for BJP in Delhi. Where will BSP go? If not to BJP what is BJP doing to ensure its not winning.
Saar, the dynamics have changed drastically since last election, then onree Bangla desh migrant could vote, rest were supposed to go back to their natives to vote, now there is a word "Pariseeman" this allows Indians with 6 months domicile in a place to register
and vote where ever they are, which means 10000+ soldiers will vote this time in Cantt area, around 800000 people from Bihar will vote
400000 from UP will vote and around 350000 from other states will vote, this is uncharted territory onree can speculate.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by archan »

Sushupti wrote:Chouhan seeks Modi help to win elections

Bhopal, Nov. 3: The Madhya Pradesh polls appear headed for a tight finish, prompting Shivraj Singh Chouhan to seek three more rallies in the state by Narendra Modi, whom he was once keen to keep off the campaign because of his anti-minority image.

Sources said the BJP chief minister had sought the help of party president Rajnath Singh and general secretary Ram Lal to persuade Modi to give more time to Madhya Pradesh. The Chouhan camp is confident that after Diwali (today), Modi would be able to spend three days in the state, which votes on November 25.

That suggests Modi would hold six public meetings in the state’s various regions. Earlier, the Gujarat chief minister was expected to hold three meetings in the state.

Shivraj, who has a good image among Muslims because of his welfare schemes, had even a couple of months ago been keen to avoid any mention of Modi in his campaign. But he has recently been trying to mend fences and got him to address a rally in Bhopal in September.

Highly placed state BJP sources said that when Chouhan began his Jan Ashirwad Yatra on July 22 — with Modi’s pictures notably absent from the posters and banners — he had seemed comfortably placed to win a third straight time. Now, three weeks before the elections, he is apparently finding the going tough.

Anti-incumbency” is said to be working against many state BJP lawmakers. The unity in the Congress, the stampede in Datia that killed over 100 people, low-level corruption, backwardness in the Chambal-Gwalior region and the unpopularity of many senior ministers are said to have narrowed the gap between the BJP and the Congress.

BJP sources said they expected the party to win 124 seats in the 230-member Assembly, with the Congress bagging around 100. The BJP now has 148 MLAs against the Congress’s 69.

Even a few months ago, Chouhan had been perceived as a challenger to Modi in the race for prime ministerial candidate and, with L.K. Advani’s backing, engaged in a game of one-upmanship with his rival.

But, state BJP leaders said, his 50-day Yatra has allowed Chouhan to gauge the voters’ mood and realise that his clean image is in danger of being offset by resentment against party MLAs and ministers.

Chouhan apparently believes that while his welfare schemes have reached the poor, many voters are dissatisfied with the health services, state of roads, and corruption in the lower bureaucracy.

So, he apparently wants to stoke resentment against the UPA government on the issues of price rise, national security, corruption at high places, and “cultural nationalism” and believes Modi is the best man for the job.

The Chouhan camp was counting on Congress disunity but over last month, apparently under Rahul Gandhi’s prodding, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath have presented a picture of unity.

Rahul has made every senior Congress leader from the state accountable for certain seats in their area of influence. Sources say these leaders’ future growth depend on the party’s performance next month in their perceived fiefs.

Congress leaders from the state had created a flutter by announcing that Sachin Tendulkar and actress Rekha would campaign for the party. The cricketer has denied any such plans.

State Congress coordinator Pramod Gugalia recently named central party official Sanjay Nirupam as his source for the “information”, but Nirupam has denied the claim.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131104/j ... 528022.jsp
MP can be tough for bhajapa. The people don't seem to be all that satisfied. Roads are bad. SSC isn't Modi.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

No not really, if not for AAP, it was 4-0 BJP straight seriously. AAP being the wildcard, has changed the picture of Delhi. So Delhi is open.

I would not give too much credence to Telegraph type articles.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by archan »

It's about MP not dilli. Overall though they still have the upper hand in mp. Win might not be as cost though. Anti incumbency is seen in local Hindi TV channels.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by niran »

look loike NaMo cracked some whip, 12 election sachivs have arrived from Gujarat to aide
Gadcurry win himself an election these sachivs have with themselves a complete 300+questionnaire
which every tikit contestant will have to answer it is supposed to carry 40% weight age
these sachivs have allowed Gadcurry free time in evenings making the Gadcurry household kush at least he have time for proper R&R they even phoned NaMo thanking him for his foresight. now the cadres have no dissent bosses cannot feel cheated out of tikits and big boss is at it with renewed vigor every morning.
all round khushi.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Naxal may create problem in Chattisghar as per MHA. this means they are supporting mafia.
fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

MP two things could be happening, it is close (as some news are making it out to be), or BJP waaayyy ahead (as CNN IBN Reporting). If it is the former, one can see how low (untruth and acting as 'open' propogandu arm of con) CNN IBN is, it is falsely reporting MP/CH to be sure shot for BJP so that it gets lull in false sense of security (whether they take the bet or not is a different issue, but Surdesai tried) and Delhi by same logic is in BJP bag, AAP is just as a prop that flopped. We will see, there is lots of intrigue and the real surveys are not being revealed.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

It's the same mullah who put the bounty of 1 crore on the head of George Bush and fatwa to kill Taslima Nasreen.
Kejriwal goes to Bareilly cleric for poll support

http://m.indianexpress.com/news/kejriwa ... t/1190145/
fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

Kejriwal is poor copy of Chiranjeevi, the later is a good actor and has enough money of its own. Fordriwal is a man of limited means, his money flow will cease if he does not succeed, ergo he is more desperate and dangerous.
gakakkad
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gakakkad »

fanne wrote:MP two things could be happening, it is close (as some news are making it out to be), or BJP waaayyy ahead (as CNN IBN Reporting). If it is the former, one can see how low (untruth and acting as 'open' propogandu arm of con) CNN IBN is, it is falsely reporting MP/CH to be sure shot for BJP so that it gets lull in false sense of security (whether they take the bet or not is a different issue, but Surdesai tried) and Delhi by same logic is in BJP bag, AAP is just as a prop that flopped. We will see, there is lots of intrigue and the real surveys are not being revealed.
i am sure bjp is not a party of toddlers to get carried away by opinion polls...sometimes people here say absurd things...like cnn ibn carrying out false surveys to give false sense of security to bjp,causing it to lose elections...
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SBajwa »

Anybody going after these seats?

Arunachal Pradesh 2
Assam 14
Manipur 2
Meghalaya 2
Mizoram 1
Nagaland 1
Sikkim 1
Total seats = 23
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

SBajwa wrote:Anybody going after these seats?

Arunachal Pradesh 2
Assam 14
Manipur 2
Meghalaya 2
Mizoram 1
Nagaland 1
Sikkim 1
Total seats = 23
Assam will go to congress, they will get at least 9. Rest all add upto 9 seats. Congress can get 4-5 seats. The rest will support UPA or NDA it does not matter to them.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

Lets see with Bodo riots and AGP destroying itself, BJP will do bad in Assam. BJP may pull of more than last time (4)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

fanne wrote:Lets see with Bodo riots and AGP destroying itself, BJP will do bad in Assam. BJP may pull of more than last time (4)
Every 5 years once, one new district is attacked by BD's in Assam. Cong will ally with AUDF and muslims votes wont split. If rest unite (big IF), maybe bjp can win more than 4.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:
fanne wrote:Lets see with Bodo riots and AGP destroying itself, BJP will do bad in Assam. BJP may pull of more than last time (4)
Every 5 years once, one new district is attacked by BD's in Assam. Cong will ally with AUDF and muslims votes wont split. If rest unite (big IF), maybe bjp can win more than 4.
If the Congress allies with AUDF, it will scare the daylights out of the others. It will mean an automatic polarisation against the Congress. Despite what some people on this board seem to believe, Assam still has 60%+ Hindus, and that means that the Congress will lose about 8-9 seats if they ally with AUDF.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Modi has not yet set foot in Assam i.e. in the course of LS2014. Once he goes there, going from his speeches previously in Assam, he is going to contribute to polarization. That means Hindus in Assam would be offered the real thing, and not some Feku Gogoi anti-Illegal Immigrant stance. So a good percentage of Hindus are going to go for BJP.

This is going to push the Congress further into the arms of illegal Bangladeshis in Assam and thus closer to AIUDF.

Once that happens, polarization is going to be full and for ever.

BJP can hope for 6-7 seats for itself plus another one for some Bodo alliance partner. If AGP joins BJP in a pre-poll alliance, as seems to be the case with Prafulla Mahanto visiting Samman Rally of INLD lately, NDA could get another 1. So altogether NDA could get around 9 seats in Assam.

2 seats in Manipur and another 1 in Arunachal can also go BJP way. 3 seats of regional parties from Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya can also fall in a post-poll NDA kitty.

So 15 seats from Northeast are within the range of probability for NDA.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Well, i did just a small analysis on assam demographics by seat ( i even have by district even someone wants it)

Image

This does give me some hope. As you can see 4 districts are surely gone. Mangaldoi and Silchar are border line and in 10 years who knows what has happened in these 2 districts. But sometimes M(%) of 40% actually helps BJP with reverse polarization.

So I guess they can actually get 8 seats, but they should get AGP and Bodo, both into alliance.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:Well, i did just a small analysis on assam demographics by seat ( i even have by district even someone wants it)

This does give me some hope. As you can see 4 districts are surely gone. Mangaldoi and Silchar are border line and in 10 years who knows what has happened in these 2 districts. But sometimes M(%) of 40% actually helps BJP with reverse polarization.

So I guess they can actually get 8 seats, but they should get AGP and Bodo, both into alliance.
MuraliRavi-ji,
There is a problem with your analysis. Due to the way Nagaon is split (Lok Sabha seat wise), Kaliabor (which has parts of Nagaon district) has about 25% Muslims, while Nagaon (Lok Sabha seat) has about 40% Muslims. it is more accurate to say that Nagaon (Lok Sabha seat) is more Morigaon and the Hindu parts of Nagaon district. It is why the BJP keeps getting elected in Nagaon (has been winning the seat since 1999).
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Well, i did just a small analysis on assam demographics by seat ( i even have by district even someone wants it)

This does give me some hope. As you can see 4 districts are surely gone. Mangaldoi and Silchar are border line and in 10 years who knows what has happened in these 2 districts. But sometimes M(%) of 40% actually helps BJP with reverse polarization.

So I guess they can actually get 8 seats, but they should get AGP and Bodo, both into alliance.
MuraliRavi-ji,
There is a problem with your analysis. Due to the way Nagaon is split (Lok Sabha seat wise), Kaliabor (which has parts of Nagaon district) has about 25% Muslims, while Nagaon (Lok Sabha seat) has about 40% Muslims. it is more accurate to say that Nagaon (Lok Sabha seat) is more Morigaon and the Hindu parts of Nagaon district. It is why the BJP keeps getting elected in Nagaon (has been winning the seat since 1999).
Nagesh ji,

Thanks for clarifying that. So overall, they do stand a chance. But lets see what they can do. So far opinion polls are favoring cong heavily in assam.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by VikramS »

x-posted
BTW those of you dealing with the AAP guys, the clerik slip is a big break.

Point them to this blog post http://satyameva-jayate.org/2010/03/13/bareilly/ or
his claim to fame about awards on Tasleema and Dubya's head
http://www.milligazette.com/news/8279-s ... mas-murder

All for his supposed influence on BD votes in Delhi.

Hammer them on identity based vote bank politics and no viable vision except gas.
He is praying on their need for a messiah and the MSM's ==..
Highlight that HarshVardhan is an honest clean person who actually achieved something (Pulse Polio eradication) compared to this gas bag who has been ditched by all his IAC partners.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by archan »

Today he was in ABP's Ghoshnapatra. Couple of journos pointed this out. He said he didn't know about the cleric's past or that he was at trouble with the law. Pretty convenient, especially for someone who keeps extensive data and records at his disposal.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by VikramS »

I think ground level BJP workers should fan out and spread the message about this guy's arrogance.
The cleric has influence among the BD population.
Also likely that the C-system has thrown the towel & is aligning its forces behind the trojan.
Their goal is to stop NaMo at all costs.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Is it only me or is there is something beyond Delhi in Congress/AAP plan? Is it quite possible that AAP emerges as a player in Delhi and with media support they will put up candidates in all urban seats in India and cut 5% BJP votes??
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:Is it only me or is there is something beyond Delhi in Congress/AAP plan? Is it quite possible that AAP emerges as a player in Delhi and with media support they will put up candidates in all urban seats in India and cut 5% BJP votes??
The only problem is that Khujliwal is not going to eat only the BJP votes. Even in Delhi, he is not eating just the BJP votes. He is going to grab a lot of `secular elite' Congress votes as well. For the Congress, he is a double edged weapon. He hurts the BJP, but how will the Congress make sure that he hurts the Congress less?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vishvak »

There is also button for no-candidate and it better not be politically exploited.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

VikramS wrote:I think ground level BJP workers should fan out and spread the message about this guy's arrogance.
The cleric has influence among the BD population.
Also likely that the C-system has thrown the towel & is aligning its forces behind the trojan.
Their goal is to stop NaMo at all costs.
I wish I had time to traslate Rony's TV9 Telugu programs of INC strategy. it has more dramatics but the essense it that Congress is after those who will win seats rather than winning on its own. Expect a third front type stuff and congress manipulating them from outside or inside. The whole strategy is just to cling on to power. Modi getting there is a heck-no.

Jagan, AAP, TRS, Maya all are in game. Infact even Jaya, SP are also in the game.

The only parties that are not in the game are BJP, TDP, SS and MNS.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Muppalla wrote:
VikramS wrote:I think ground level BJP workers should fan out and spread the message about this guy's arrogance.
The cleric has influence among the BD population.
Also likely that the C-system has thrown the towel & is aligning its forces behind the trojan.
Their goal is to stop NaMo at all costs.
I wish I had time to traslate Rony's TV9 Telugu programs of INC strategy. it has more dramatics but the essense it that Congress is after those who will win seats rather than winning on its own. Expect a third front type stuff and congress manipulating them from outside or inside. The whole strategy is just to cling on to power. Modi getting there is a heck-no.

Jagan, AAP, TRS, Maya all are in game. Infact even Jaya, SP are also in the game.

The only parties that are not in the game are BJP, TDP, SS and MNS.
BJD?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

vishvak wrote:There is also button for no-candidate and it better not be politically exploited.
Actually if there is something called EVM Magic, that would be the right place to use it. Make more votes go in that sink from say BJP than say to other parties.

If BJP votes go to other parties, one would become suspicious of their higher popularity at the poll booth than on the ground. However BJP votes going to the "No-Candidate" is just general disenchantment of the people with politics.

In the end it would come out that less people were disenchanted with Congress than with BJP, which would be a difficult thing to disprove.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Survey predicts Raman sweep

New Delhi, Nov. 5: The BJP is set to sweep next week’s Chhattisgarh polls and form a government in the state for the third time, a survey by ABP News in collaboration with Dainik Bhaskar has predicted.

The survey, conducted by AC Nielsen, projected a 9 per cent increase in the BJP’s vote share to 49 per cent since the 2008 elections. The rise means that the BJP is projected to bag 60 of the 90 seats, up 10 from last time’s 50.

In contrast, the Congress was expected to marginally increase its vote share from 38.4 per cent in 2008 to 39 per cent, but its seats were projected to fall from 37 to 27.

The state votes on November 11 and 18.

Another significant conclusion was that while the vote percentage gap between the BJP and the Congress — the state’s principal parties — was only 2.4 per cent in 2008, it could widen to 10 per cent.

According to the survey, rising prices and a perception that the Centre had failed to control inflation had pushed voters towards the BJP.

The findings would cheer chief minister Raman Singh. The survey showed that about three-fourths of the respondents rated his performance as “good” or “very good”, and 70 per cent wanted his government to return.

The high ratings were seen as a reflection of the popularity of social schemes Singh has implemented. Most respondents were aware of the state’s food security law and 82 per cent said they had either personally benefited or knew of beneficiaries of the chief minister’s health insurance scheme.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131106/j ... 535182.jsp
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sushupti »

Image
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

So both nielson and csds survey on chattisgarh match pretty well. So there has been a shift in vote there , dont know whats causing these extra margins for bjp .
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

what is ac-Nielsen's survey on MP?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

Sushupti wrote:BJD?
Even if he is on a losing track, he may not align with BJP. Naveen is 100% manipulated/blackmailed by western/INC systems. However, if BJP get 180+ he will get in as post-poll.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Muppalla wrote:what is ac-Nielsen's survey on MP?
Not yet out, they milk the money day by day
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RoyG »

Pranavji,

Will you now drop your support of Kejriwal after that rascal went begging to that jihadi cleric for support? Sick.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Pratyush »

Sushupti wrote:Image
I thought that Jindal is a congress MP. So what are they trying to say.
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