AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[devesh]

ya, but in LS, the demon-spawns all join with the demon anyway. so there's no point in speculating on that.

it is the State Assembly which will decide the future of TDP and Jagan.

[ShyamSP]

15) Ongole - BJP 25580 3.48% (3rd place)
16) Nellore - BJP 175074 23.63% (3rd place)
17) Tirupathi - BJP 178773 23.84% (3rd place)
18) Chittoor - BJP 147861 19.08% (3rd place)
19) Rajampet - BJP 94311 15.56% (3rd place)
20) Cuddapah - BJP 28349 3.83% (3rd place)
21) Hindupur - BJP 108394 16.47% (3rd place)
22) Anantpur - BJP 93339 13.88% (3rd place)
23) Kurnool - BJP 17446 2.32% (3rd place)
24) Nandyal - BJP 18841 2.70% (3rd place)

First of all they were not BJP vote banks except for a single-digit %s. They were transient votes for BJP. Context to remember was in 1996 BJP had 5-6% state overall and not much in these constituencies except for one which was okay as it was Venkaiah Naidu's.

In one of the constituencies there was push to defeat Congress in MP. Strategy for TDP was to ask vote for TDP in MLA later next year but vote for BJP in MP ballot in that year. Local Congress leader was to adopt similar strategy. It ended up bad as most TDP votes were gone to BJP than Congress' . For Congress it was big joke on TDP. This was also in the background of United Front failure and next best non-Congress was thought to be BJP to defeat Congress at Center.

It was more of tactical %s spike than any BJP effort there.

[Shanmukh]

nageshks ji, mudragada is not just BJP as he has several father. He was in TDP, after Ranga's death, he went to INC and NTR lost. He came back to TDP and lost before he joined BJP and later again to TDP. You are bringing leaders who are not in one place anytime. He is a very close relative to my dad's close friend.

Muppalla-ji,
It is not my point to extol the virtues of Mudragada Padmanabham. The point is that CBN lured him out of the BJP (which is not quite kosher in coalition Dharma).

[Shanmukh]

15) Ongole - BJP 25580 3.48% (3rd place)
16) Nellore - BJP 175074 23.63% (3rd place)
17) Tirupathi - BJP 178773 23.84% (3rd place)
18) Chittoor - BJP 147861 19.08% (3rd place)
19) Rajampet - BJP 94311 15.56% (3rd place)
20) Cuddapah - BJP 28349 3.83% (3rd place)
21) Hindupur - BJP 108394 16.47% (3rd place)
22) Anantpur - BJP 93339 13.88% (3rd place)
23) Kurnool - BJP 17446 2.32% (3rd place)
24) Nandyal - BJP 18841 2.70% (3rd place)

First of all they were not BJP vote banks except for a single-digit %s. They were transient votes for BJP. Context to remember was in 1996 BJP had 5-6% state overall and not much in these constituencies except for one which was okay as it was Venkaiah Naidu's.

In one of the constituencies there was push to defeat Congress in MP. Strategy for TDP was to ask vote for TDP in MLA later next year but vote for BJP in MP ballot in that year. Local Congress leader was to adopt similar strategy. It ended up bad as most TDP votes were gone to BJP than Congress' . For Congress it was big joke on TDP. This was also in the background of United Front failure and next best non-Congress was thought to be BJP to defeat Congress at Center.

It was more of tactical %s spike than any BJP effort there.

That is not true for Nellore, at least. The seat had been voting BJP with 15% of the vote since 1991. Venkaiah was from Bapatla, IIRC.

[Shanmukh]

(1) Rhetorically speaking one can easily say they should have not gone with CBN and has lived with instability at center. But that argument is a bad argument. They bought a lot of stability.

(2) All that votes in 1998 did BJP get due to ideology or caste breakdown? This is also a favorite topic from Devesh garu . So suddenly one fine morning the culture less coastal folks became Hindutva vaadis? Or in a decade after that all the non-T folks are now Christians? Why did BJP got so many votes in 1998?

Easier punch bag is CBN as though he plotted the demise of BJP. The truth could be something else. The Congress party grew on Reddys, SCs, STs and minorities. The TDP grew on Kammas and OBCs. There are some more forward castes such as kapus who want to break out of this logjam by opposing both Reddys and Kammas. This is what BJP started building (not ideology) but when you go in coalition with TDP that vigor got diluted. It did not lose because of dilution or any plot by TDP. It lost 2004 along with TDP due to AP's anti-incumbency. In 2009 it has decided to be a Telangana party and in addition its budding votebank was captured by Chiranjeevi. Since then it is just a Telangana party.

I do not think so. The thing is - in the BJP, even caste based consolidation was under the aegis of Hindutva. This was why the Brahmins and backward castes of UP were with the BJP as long as the Hindutva agenda held. Everyone would bargain for a share of the government, and demand that the government do more for the caste, but it is vital to remember that they all were in it for a greater cause (Hindutva). But the moment that greater ideology disappeared, it became a free for all factional fighting, and people would leave if they got a better offer. By dropping their Hindutva agenda, the BJP became a party no better and no different from the others. A slow consolidation of the BJP would have been better for the party. Slower perhaps, but surer in the longer run.

As for the Hindutva agenda, it was all the alliances with the TDP, BJD, TMC, etc that forced the BJP to give up its core agenda - Hindutva. This was a singularly stupid thing for the BJP to do. Their voters might include many castes, but they were all held together by that universal glue - Hindutva. The BJP might have come to power once to make Hajpayee the prime minister, but it also effectively destroyed the BJP as a party with a difference. It was another casteist, corrupt party, and would have the loyalty of the castes only as long as a better offer did not come along. The BJP will have to mobilise the castes without seeming to do so overtly. The BJP stands for something greater than individual castes.

Here I agree with Devesh-ji. If Modi plays the secular cards too much, he is going to be a big time loser. The Hindutva votes will stay away from the booth. Modi is trying to mobilise under the umbrella of development. But the problem with this agenda is that there is nothing unique about it. Many others will also claim they stand for development. Modi's real sales pitch is that he is better at development than the others. And the Congress having failed spectacularly on the front helps too. But it is still a dangerous route for the BJP to try.

It could have tried in the coastal space without getting too cozy on Telangana platform if the leadership tried to get the middle castes of non-T regions. Building a party with coalition of communities is not easy but you have to sustain it without short cuts. (In KA before BJP formed government BJP sustained in election after election.) However, when everyone is playing dramas, it went hand-in-hand with TRS only to be backstabbed by them. As compared to T, one advantage in non-T region is if you keep the mahabalis (the one with caste following and money) you can grow easily. This is a capture and go model. Congress, Jagan, TDP are big because of such local satraps. Being a national party trying such biz folks is not difficult. You throw some bread crumbs they will even pass "India for hindus and everyone else second class citizens" type bills also. There are several there with just commercial interests and ideology is not an issue for those. These folks can sustain a lot of T-politics too.

In Karnataka, the BJP was never dependent on any one community, Muppalla-ji. You look from 1991. The BJP always depended on the middle class votes, and educated votes. That is why it would win urban centres, but have little influence 10 kms away from the city. This is what the BJP in Andhra failed to do, outside Secunderabad-Hyderabad. I have no idea if this was even possible in Andhra, but the BJP in Karnataka did not get the full support of the Lingayats till 2004, or any other single community for that matter (although it had started winning considerable seats in Karnataka since 1991). Even under Yeddy, it had the support of most groups, with the possible exception of the Vokkaligas in the Mysore-Mandya-Hassan region (and this failure owes to a bitter factional fight between Yeddy and Shivappa in 2000).

[Shanmukh]

If you cut first paragraph and quote second paragraph, it can be called taking out of context.

If you ignore most of the arguments I have made, it can be called attacking strawmans.

I want to end here on this as conversation is going to all nitpicking.

Shrug - as you wish. I am pointing out the need for the SeemaAndhra people to negotiate with the one group that can actually help them, since it is the SeemaAndhra people that have vital interests at stake. But then - there are always quid pro quos in life, and no help comes for free.

[Yagnasri]

That is not true for Nellore, at least. The seat had been voting BJP with 15% of the vote since 1991. Venkaiah was from Bapatla, IIRC.[/quote]

Venkayya was MLA from Udayagiri at Nellore. I personally know it. Just see that names of MLA and MP candidates from Nellore in those days and compare them with mine. People used to think I was the candidate. We tried caste politics and all kinds of things in those days. But nothing materialized on long term basis. The problem was Bjp vote is not fixed. It is floating vote and party need to perform.

[Shanmukh]

Venkayya was MLA from Udayagiri at Nellore. I personally know it. Just see that names of MLA and MP candidates from Nellore in those days and compare them with mine. People used to think I was the candidate. We tried caste politics and all kinds of things in those days. But nothing materialized on long term basis. The problem was Bjp vote is not fixed. It is floating vote and party need to perform.

Narayana Rao-ji,
Venkaiah was an MLA in Udayagiri for one short term, IIRC, from 1983-1985, and even then, he won with the help of the TDP. He used to contest for Lok Sabha from Bapatla, and once he tried to contest from Hyderabad. Has he ever won without help from the TDP?


Added: Okay - he also won in 1978, but again, it was as part of the Janata Party. Am I correct that he has never won from the BJP on his own?

[Yagnasri]

He won from bjp also.

[Shanmukh]

He won from bjp also.

I must be missing something here, Narayana Rao-ji. He won from Udayagiri in 1978 as Janata Party candidate. He won in 1983 as BJP candidate, but it appears that it was with NTR's backing (there seems to be no TDP opposition here, unless one of the independents was backed by the TDP). Or am I wrong? Did he win here in 1983 on his own?

In 1985, he lost even with the backing of the TDP.from Atmakur (why did he shift away from Udayagiri, by the way). He contested from Bapatla in 1989 for Lok Sabha, with TDP support, and lost. He did not contest the 1991 Lok Sabha elections, or 1994 Assembly elections. He contested from Hyderabad in 1996 and lost. He has not contested Assembly elections from 1999 or Lok Sabha elections from 1998.

[hanumadu]

It is also to be noted 1990s are Vajpayee time and Ramayana Janmabhumi mobilisation period. BJp was growing on the back of all these things. Bjp was perceived as party of honest people and enjoyed great goodwill. Once you sacrificed Ramayana Janmabhumi after coming to power the support is gone. Bjp has no ideas to sell. We faced serious questions from our voters who openly saying why temple was not constructed? Why bjp abandoned the movement. The common Hindus in south or even in UP never forgiven bjp for this. But for NM bjp has very lititle to offer even now. Bjp wins in some states because they have good local CMs there. Not because of Hindu votes. Even here other leaders are as bad as congress.

Loss of ideological basis is damaging with educated voters, particularly when voters have other alternatives. Do you think we could have gone to voters on temple issue in 2004?.

Votes in 1990s have come for a bjp which is Hindu party. After NDA there is no Hindu party. Even NM gets support as Hindu leader. If he plays secular games he will lose in a big way.

This is the kind of all or nothing thinking by Hindu maximalists that is responsible for the present state of affairs with the BJP. Though the BJP did not build a temple or abolish article 370, they did what every they could in other spheres. They started correcting the history, bought stabiliy, prosperity and significant economic reforms. I guess the people who are upset with BJP for not building the temple are happy now with 10 years of UPA rule and god knows how many more where by they can destroy every Hindu and non-Hindu functioning institutions in India. Every time some body brings this kind of argument, I wish for more UPA rule just to bring home the truth to these kind of people.

[Shanmukh]

This is the kind of all or nothing thinking by Hindu maximalists that is responsible for the present state of affairs with the BJP. Though the BJP did not build a temple or abolish article 370, they did what every they could in other spheres. They started correcting the history, bought stabiliy, prosperity and significant economic reforms. I guess the people who are upset with BJP for not building the temple are happy now with 10 years of UPA rule and god knows how many more where by they can destroy every Hindu and non-Hindu functioning institutions in India. Every time some body brings this kind of argument, I wish for more UPA rule just to bring home the truth to these kind of people.

Erm - I would slightly disagree with you, Hanumadu-ji. I get what Narayana Rao-ji is trying to say. I have faced the same problem myself while campaigning for BJP. The problem is the disconnect between the promises and the performance. BJP voters are generally more politically aware (even in rural areas). The BJP promised a lot on the Hindutva front, and performed nothing. This led to a huge disenchantment with the BJP and led to a belief that the BJP was untrustworthy (if you promise a lot of things and perform none, it is going to hit your credibility).

You are absolutely right when you say that the BJP is a million times better than the Congress. The BJP acheived a lot of development, and crushed terrorists. But that was not the sales pitch we went to polls under. It is important to keep at least some of your promises, just to retain your credibility.

[Yagnasri]

And surrender at Kandahar? How do explain it to public and your voters? What about Kashmir Pundits even now? What stopped bjp from doing something about them? Omar Obdullla in their ministry?

Even with secular allies they should not have made a virtue of abandoning Hindu cause. But for Modi there is little reason to support bjp now.

[hanumadu]

I would put the Kandahar episode as inexperience of the BJP. JS should have never gone out there. Its a one off thing and there are not long term affects of it on India.
The Kashmiri Pandits' problem is more serious. Did the people give BJP a clear mandate to fix Kashmir once and for all? There were two choices before the BJP, forego the government and fight for the next elections or form a government and compromise on its poll promises. In hind sight, probably it would have been better if it just sat in the opposition and wait for another mid term election. The positive side is it kick started the economy. A big if, but If the BJP government was not at the center during the Godhra roits, NM''s govt. would have been probably dismissed and it would have set back NM permanently. So, take your pick.

There would be little reason to support BJP if they got a clear mandate and they failed in keeping their promises or if there is some body else who is better for India and Hindus.

It didn't help that BJP did not have national level mass appeal leaders succeeding Vajpayee and Advani. Only now we see Modi. Again after Modi who? Shivraj Singh, Raman Singh are all good in their states only. Its time they give the state reins to some one else in the next five years and build a national image. One Modi is good, 10 Modis is better.

[chaanakya]

And surrender at Kandahar? How do explain it to public and your voters? What about Kashmir Pundits even now? What stopped bjp from doing something about them? Omar Obdullla in their ministry?
.

Narayan Garu

Kandhar is a blip on the entire landscape of terrorism that is affecting India. How so?

What happened then. Few terrorists were released and we got all our passengers back minus one. Neither US nor Pakistan nor any other country helped India at that time. All were waiting to see how BJP handles it and it was NDA govt, full of Congi leaning parties who in next election , anyway deserted NDA.

Congis were vociferously pressurizing NDA to get passenger back home. How can they not be party to that decision and share the blame equally.

Anyway India was suffering from Pak inspired terrorism earlier and it continued even after that.

If MA had not been released , and plane blown up with all passengers in , whether terrorism would have stopped. I think it would have continued even more vigorously.

The other side effect of IC 814 was that 11/9 was planned from inside Pakistan and some of those elements were earlier involved in 814. So failure of US to act caused them innumerable loss but then it focused their attention firmly on terrorism and increasingly it became difficult for scums to operate.

Another lesson was not to take terrorists as prisoners , but Congis policies , subsequently, hamstrung the agencies so much that entire fighting infrastructure is threatened just like what Morarji and Gujaral did for RAa and covert capabilities and with TSD by current dispensation.

I think we should leave Kandhar behind. There is nothing to explain to public. We understand what happened then.

Kashmiri pandit problem. Give then 2/3rd majority and majority in states and if they don't do then ask. Till such time wait.

[chaanakya]

Erm - I would slightly disagree with you, Hanumadu-ji. I get what Narayana Rao-ji is trying to say. I have faced the same problem myself while campaigning for BJP. The problem is the disconnect between the promises and the performance. BJP voters are generally more politically aware (even in rural areas). The BJP promised a lot on the Hindutva front, and performed nothing. This led to a huge disenchantment with the BJP and led to a belief that the BJP was untrustworthy (if you promise a lot of things and perform none, it is going to hit your credibility). .

You cant clean 60 years of muck in one term. laloo spoiled Bihar in about 15 to 20 years. It is difficult for current combine to clean it up in one term or even two. See how NiKu was compromised with sickular ideas even when he risks loosing Bihar.

It is difficult to walk in marshland. You need to find solid ground. Give solid mandate then ask else we wait for better trun of India's fortune.

[Muppalla]

I do not think so. The thing is - in the BJP, even caste based consolidation was under the aegis of Hindutva. This was why the Brahmins and backward castes of UP were with the BJP as long as the Hindutva agenda held. Everyone would bargain for a share of the government, and demand that the government do more for the caste, but it is vital to remember that they all were in it for a greater cause (Hindutva). But the moment that greater ideology disappeared, it became a free for all factional fighting, and people would leave if they got a better offer. By dropping their Hindutva agenda, the BJP became a party no better and no different from the others. A slow consolidation of the BJP would have been better for the party. Slower perhaps, but surer in the longer run.

As for the Hindutva agenda, it was all the alliances with the TDP, BJD, TMC, etc that forced the BJP to give up its core agenda - Hindutva. This was a singularly stupid thing for the BJP to do. Their voters might include many castes, but they were all held together by that universal glue - Hindutva. The BJP might have come to power once to make Hajpayee the prime minister, but it also effectively destroyed the BJP as a party with a difference. It was another casteist, corrupt party, and would have the loyalty of the castes only as long as a better offer did not come along. The BJP will have to mobilise the castes without seeming to do so overtly. The BJP stands for something greater than individual castes.

Here I agree with Devesh-ji. If Modi plays the secular cards too much, he is going to be a big time loser. The Hindutva votes will stay away from the booth. Modi is trying to mobilise under the umbrella of development. But the problem with this agenda is that there is nothing unique about it. Many others will also claim they stand for development. Modi's real sales pitch is that he is better at development than the others. And the Congress having failed spectacularly on the front helps too. But it is still a dangerous route for the BJP to try.

Here is where I have major disagreements even with my close friends as well (some are on this forum ). Nothing disrespectful. To me the ideological vote of BJP in terms of Hindutva or Hindu issues is very minimal. It just equates to what it currently has in AP or nationwide it equates to just the votes it got in 1985. (2 parl seats and some overall percentage). All the growth of BJP is state-by-state class and caste additions. Where it did that engineering it grew and where it did not do it is not there. The places where it did not do such engineering it is still on sidelines. AP, Orissa, West Bengal etc. Take purely peripheral states out of the equation on this topic.

I fundamentally disagree that non-minority/non-dalit/non-vested-interest voters of any party are different ideologically in India. It is all about how you get them to your side. Hindutva or nationalistic ideology is what a party implements and not what can be used in isolation to get votes. To me rest is all personal perspectives of the analyst.

regarding mudragada, Naidu did not do any sabotage. He is a pure party hoper and saw a good change in TDP votes to win. You expectation is that as coalition dhramist Naidu should have avoided mudragada even though he was a minister in his part just few year ago. That is not politics and parties work to win and not work to give space to others.

[Yagnasri]

Most of the people who work for bjp on day to day basis do so because it is a Hindu party. If it is not then there is no reason to waste our time. If Modi want Muslim voters at the cost of his Hindu base, he will end up like Advani in 2009. Development is great. But Hindu appeal is needed in north.

[Hari Seldon]

^^^ Agreed. End of the day the only reason BJP is magnificiently different from the rest of the crowd (all Cong B teams basically) is its unapologetic rootedness in a Sanaatani identity. The day it starts to get apologetic about its Hindu roots, is the day it loses its soul.

That said, the reason for comfort with namo is precisely that he is unapologetic about Hindu interests within the umbrella of larger national interest. The initial rush of admiration and rock solid support for the man was built on precisely that edifice. Good governance is perfectly consistent with a pro-Hindu outlook and only added to his appeal after that.

[Yagnasri]

No one is saying that development should not the only issue. It should be. But futile efforts to get few Muslim votes even at the cost of angering Hindus shall not be undertaken. To get allies you abandon you people, then you will be no where. Modi so for never tried to get approval from secular mafia. Some creepy feeling that he is now slowly coming to some people I spoke. They may be wrong. But Modi needs to be more careful.

[devesh]

I want to focus a little bit on how the region's politics will shape up IF division happens.

in Telangana, the interesting to watch is how the TRS-backers reach an understanding with the BC's and OBC's. this is crucial. that section is essential for any public compact. I think TRS knows this. but if they intend to merge with INC, what is their long term plan? do they intend to take over the reins inside the INC? or do they seek to share with the R's? like switching CM's between R and V?

most likely, it will be the later. in that case, what is the R view on compacts with the above mentioned sections? in many ways, the R's have a much better and instinctive understanding of the "feelings" of the "other" sections. compared to the V's. but the R's themselves went along with compromises during the Nizam times. so their hands are not as clean. and there is no guarantee they won't lapse into old habits.

this might not be very clear now, because they are biding their time. but there will be a section among the elites which understands that the basic reality post-1948 has changed. their former armed strongholds are gone. and that can't be reversed. it is this portion of the elites (all of them) which understands this basic reality, which is likely to hedge their bets and not put all their eggs in the Ashraf basket.

and that's where lies hope. it's all very cynical. but, in elite calculations, that's how things work. there are always "dreamers" and "wide-eyed idealists" who will be on the look for opportunities, and being from elite/ruling backgrounds, they have a finely tuned antenna for such things and will seek to exploit the obvious weakness this creates in the Ashraf plans.

the dreamers in the elites need to harness the rise of "others" in the small businesses and new membership into "high" circles.

the same process will also happen on the coast. that section which can take a clear stand in support of the "dreamers" in the interior, will be the harbingers of the future. but this is where things get muddled. I cannot stress this enough. money is always a "corruption" in the sense that people tend to start viewing everything with a commoditized view. this tendency should be avoided at all costs. making decisions that steer the future of a society is a heavy burden. people who are in a position to do so must understand that sometimes what is necessarily a "good thing" producing GDP growth in the short-term, can also be a disastrous thing in the long-term.

specifically, the supposed conundrum between "development" and "ideology" always pops up when some issues rises which requires the elites to divert time, and resources away from purely profit-making efforts to more nation-building efforts which in almost all cases, at least temporarily causes a reduction in the surplus production of luxury and other private profits. the willingness to bear that burden, as a trade-off for security and safety in the future, is a necessity. without that, there can never be a resurgence, or a reconquista.

IMHO, I am more worried about the trajectory of the Coast than Telangana. broadly speaking, the mathematics has tilted against the old-feudals in the interior. their positions have worsened drastically. some of the important coercive levers that they directly controlled, have disappeared. and they used to rely on those levers heavily when they had their merry time.

in the coast, the most disturbing trend is how the Communist movement simply evaporated out of existence after a seemingly widespread rise of that ideology in the 40's and 50's. this has always bothered me. it is unnerving b/c it shows there are forces which have a very strong vested interest in preventing situations where they have to decisively take a stand on issues of actual "values" which matter for the future. this tendency of staying away from decisive ideology and playing the merry dance between INC on one side, and much later, TDP on the other side, is not a good sign. it is a glaring weakness that can be exploited. marine/coastal/trade-based societies are especially vulnerable if they present this weakness to outsiders.

even now, the incessant need to blame BJP, which for all intents and purposes never had any role in the current bifurcation proposal, is another key indicator. lot of rage against a non-existent party which has never had any say in AP at all. yet, the one party, both at State and Center, under whose watch the bifurcation is taking place, only gets cursory condemnations.

[vivek.rao]

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/trs-d ... 16587.html
TRS delays Telangana: Does Modi want Rao to dump Congress?

Now, as the Government seems to be moving quickly on the state’s proposed bifurcation, the TRS is coming up with outlandish demands that seem to want further complication rather than closure on the issue. And the party once again stokes the feeling that TRS will throw a spanner in the Centre’s works, just for its own survival. It may be recalled that the TRS, even when it was formulating its plans for power generation once Telangana was formed, focused mostly on the region’s resources and its ability to become a power surplus state in a matter of 3-4 years. The KG Basin issue did not figure even in the party’s private discussions, according to party sources. Given this background, the TRS’s latest demand — for a slice of the resources from the KG Basin — is seen as nothing but a political maneuver intended to upset the other parties rather than any serious policy plans. Informed sources reveal that the speed-breaker now is TRS president K Chandrasekhar Rao’s reluctance to yield to the Congress party.

The TRS leader, reportedly, met the Congress high command last month in New Delhi where it was made clear to him that upon merger, KCR’s son K Taraka Rama Rao, one of the key leaders in the party, will get the Deputy CM post. His daughter Kavitha, also a prominent leader, heading Telangana Jagruti, a cultural outfit of the TRS, will get a Rajya Sabha berth. However, since KCR wants the CM’s post in the new state for himself and nothing less, the proposed merger is stalled for now, TRS sources say. So KCR has recently started talking of ‘Unconditional Telangana’, a new concept that is aimed at needling the Congress party and nothing else.

Sources in the TRS let out that KCR has been getting calls from one of the country’s biggest corporate majors, at the behest of Narendra Modi. The Gujarat CM is reportedly advising KCR to avoid a merger with the Congress and to instead contest independently. The phone calls allegedly involve a strong offer of financial support to the TRS for compensation and election expenditure. With the BJP not too keen on taking its friendship with the TDP to the hustings due to pressure from its Telangana cadre, it seems the TRS may also look to gain by staying away from the Congress.

Another interesting development is the breaking of silence by MIM for the first time after the CWC announcement. Asaduddin Owaisi made it clear to the GoM that his party was against the division of the state but rooted for “Rayala Telangana” (including two districts of Rayalaseema – Anantapur and Kurnool — that have a significant Muslim vote bank) if the division cannot be avoided.

Unbelievable how AP has been turned into a piece of property by ITALIAN MAFIA and ISLAMIC MAFIA with active connivance of KCR kind of traitors.

The BJP, meanwhile, is playing a behind-the-scenes political game as it gears up to even reverse its stance on supporting the Bill if the Congress proposes a Rayala Telangana, even as it seems to believe propping up KCR is a better idea than teaming up with a beleaguered Chandrababu Naidu. As the Group of Ministers is all set to conduct its third and most crucial meeting today, parties in Andhra Pradesh are getting the jitters. The crux of the issue now seems to be last-minute political gain rather than any consideration for the real issues that still dog the bifurcation proposal. And, ironically, as the Seemandhra movement enters the 100th day today, the despondent Seemandhra movement leaders seem as baffled as the people of Telangana about what’s happening in the state.

[Rony]

So KCR wants all Singareni for Telangana and also % of KG basin in Andhra ? Even if for bargaining purposes, the audacity of that demand and the sense of entitlement among T-vadis again reminds me the parallel between a certain movement for separation in 47 and now

[a_bharat]

^^^
Razakar genes?

[ShyamSP]

So KCR wants all Singareni for Telangana and also % of KG basin in Andhra ? Even if for bargaining purposes, the audacity of that demand and the sense of entitlement among T-vadis again reminds me the parallel between a certain movement for separation in 47 and now

So KG-Basin is negotiating option? If KCR's clue is right, may be Congress is putting reallocation or new state control of the resources in the report? BJP will have to vote for reallocation for Gujarat Government entity.

[ramana]

Vivek, all have their parts to paly. The Andhra Pradesh turmoil is needed to break the INC -2G stranglehold. KCR is doing what he has to do. No traitors anywhere.
If you step back we are seeing the last days of zamindari raj. Forward castes are ~15% of Telangana region yet they control and shape the destiny of the rest. How long will that last and still be called a democracy and representative government.
INC 2Gs cannot and will not let the miniscule forward castes to keep leading. Further they will not tolerate another dynasts even if they are one. If that was so they would have continued with YSR family. All this turmoil was not needed.
Narayana Rao garu do you now see more clearly?

[Rony]

The Andhra Pradesh turmoil is needed to break the INC -2G stranglehold

It is making a virtue out of necessity, Ramana garu. Its not at all certain thats how it will pan out. Once the heat is over and one way or the other "normal conditions" return, I am willing to bet that Congress will be back in the game in Seemandhra. Just like the Delhi Sultanate gave away to the Mughals, Congress is transferring its power to its proxy YSR Congress.Nothing substantial is changing or will change on the ground. On the T side, irrespective of whether TRS merges with Congress or forms an alliance, Telangana (including Hyderabad) is already in INC-2G kitty. Never underestimate the British genes of the Congress party.

[devesh]

Even I am a little baffled at BJP. Their moves seemed to be aimed at throwing spanners into INC plans. If they start sending out signals of rejecting the bill if INC does any harakiri, it further complicates Congress MO.

Meanwhile, MIM has remained calm so far. They are receiving their own inputs. Always remember that. The islamic power centers are watching the situation unfold. I can say with some amount of confidence that MIM was really hoping to ally with Jagan electorally and share political power. but if Jagan's home base is in the new state, their plans go awry. this is also something to be watched. we can see now, why this current division might end up upsetting some important powers.

[devesh]

in light of Rayala-Telangana demand from MIM, KCR's stalling might also be for that to happen.

KCR no doubt knows there is no way he can get anything from KG delta. this new demand is a purely stalling tactic to achieve some other goal. it's a distraction to achieve something else.

[ramana]

KCR doesn't want Rayalaseema in Telangana as it will create a rival power center to his setup.
As for KG basin alreaddy Khammam is larger than Nizam area.
No there is bigger shadow thing going on.

Devesh, RamaY had simulated in 2012 the AP politics on the seperation question and the oddest thing was the gradual convergence of MIM and YSRJ. It appeared unreal at that time.

Misfortunately we did not run the simulation every three months!
The key factors were Raja indictment that made DMK beholden to INC and Pawar, Mulayam and Mayawati all embroiled in corruption cases which also made them a non-player, BJP losing Karnataka.
All these made INC more strong so to speak to take a decision to separate the state.

[devesh]

I am reluctantly coming around to your view that more than anything else, the BJP's objective in AP might be to push INC as much into an intractable situation as possible. a situation where invariably, INC, and other players like Jagan and TDP, end up making non-negotiable enemies out of some group or the other. BJP wants a space for itself. and it seems their idea is to push INC into making a section into avowed enemies of C-system. it is working well so far.

at this point, if the T-bill fails, not only will it piss off a significant section T, but the already angry janata of SA will also not be mollified by the simple act of bill not passing, because of all the chaos that they had to go through.

and even if T-bill passes, how much hold do the old-feudals really have over the population now?! that's an open ended question. INC might not like the answer at all.

[Yagnasri]

No one bothers even read what Rao wrote. Mafia is playing a game which even it does not understand. Being diggi raja idea. It is natural. Today task force note was leaked to media. Serious security concerns of non locals, their jobs, businesses all mentioned. As per the note if T formed non locals fear that they will be kicked out etc. The blame of fear etc out on Rao gang in the note. Wait for more dramas.

[devesh]

what would be really cool is if there is some talk in Delta about "not wanting the burden of Rayalaseema". this could potentially be a trouble for Jagan, and also TRS on the other side. and if somebody can actually mobilize a few thousand people to come out for a rally on that topic, Jai Ho! another new wrench in the works.

[ramana]

There wont be such talk.

[devesh]

^^^
probably, you are right. but IF there is, it only further fractures whatever coalition Jagan hopes to build. and it also puts a scare in TRS that if such an idea takes hold, they eventually get the Rayala-Telangana. this would really light a fire under KCR's bottom.

[ShyamSP]

I am reluctantly coming around to your view that more than anything else, the BJP's objective in AP might be to push INC as much into an intractable situation as possible. a situation where invariably, INC, and other players like Jagan and TDP, end up making non-negotiable enemies out of some group or the other. BJP wants a space for itself. and it seems their idea is to push INC into making a section into avowed enemies of C-system. it is working well so far.

This I agree with you and has been one of my threads in T-machinations. BJP confidence provided INC to make bold step. Normal ladies coming to street and kicking on *Gandhis statues is their achievement indirectly. BJP thinking may be if we can't get AP, lets make it INC-mukth AP.

It is also indirectly desirable for TDP to have TN like situation. Now when it comes to Seemandhra, it has by default suddenly became YSRC vs TDP. We no longer think INC vs TDP like even when these AP/T threads started.

[RajeshA]

I do not know AP politics in any depth or anything, but there is something I just don't understand.

All the discussions here are based on Telangana soon becoming a political reality. All take it for granted that Telangana Statehood Bill would pass. Where is so much surety coming from?

I just don't see Congress managing to pull this off without BJP's help? Also time is running out very fast! After the State Assembly Elections UPA would be a lame duck government and nothing is going to get off the ground - no structural Bills passed.

The issue is what happens with TRS and Congress in Telangana when they go to Lok Sabha polls without a Telangana Bill passed? If BJP says NO, citing some reason, there is just no way TRS and Congress can realize Telangana! And if they can't give Telangana people Telangana now, there is no reason for people to believe they can fulfill the promise at any time in the future.

[Shanmukh]

I do not know AP politics in any depth or anything, but there is something I just don't understand.

All the discussions here are based on Telangana soon becoming a political reality. All take it for granted that Telangana Statehood Bill would pass. Where is so much surety coming from?

I just don't see Congress managing to pull this off without BJP's help? Also time is running out very fast! After the State Assembly Elections UPA would be a lame duck government and nothing is going to get off the ground - no structural Bills passed.

The issue is what happens with TRS and Congress in Telangana when they go to Lok Sabha polls without a Telangana Bill passed? If BJP says NO, citing some reason, there is just no way TRS and Congress can realize Telangana! And if they can't give Telangana people Telangana now, there is no reason for people to believe they can fulfill the promise at any time in the future.

RajeshA-ji,
I had analysed this in some depth, earlier in the thread. As it happens, even if the BJP votes against the Telangana bill, the numbers game is very delicately poised. The Congress enjoys a 281 to 259 majority, even if the BJP votes against the Bill, as long as the SeemaAndhra Congress MPs (there are 19) vote in favour of the Bill. It all depends on how many SeemaAndhra Congressmen revolt against the Congress on the floor of the House. Only if more than 12 SeemaAndhra Congressmen revolt against the Bill will it fail. Otherwise, it is going to pass. Even in Rajya Sabha, the numbers are similarly delicately poised.

[ramana]

All the discussions here are based on Telangana soon becoming a political reality. All take it for granted that Telangana Statehood Bill would pass. Where is so much surety coming from?

See INC has announced the decision and is the govt at cneter. BJP says its supports it.

So the expectation is it will be reality.
But within this there are wheels within wheels.
BJP needs INC to get destroyed in AP. And is making moves to urge it along the path.
Now does BJP want to divide AP only Arraah knows.

[shyamoo]

I do not know AP politics in any depth or anything, but there is something I just don't understand.

All the discussions here are based on Telangana soon becoming a political reality. All take it for granted that Telangana Statehood Bill would pass. Where is so much surety coming from?

I just don't see Congress managing to pull this off without BJP's help? Also time is running out very fast! After the State Assembly Elections UPA would be a lame duck government and nothing is going to get off the ground - no structural Bills passed.

The issue is what happens with TRS and Congress in Telangana when they go to Lok Sabha polls without a Telangana Bill passed? If BJP says NO, citing some reason, there is just no way TRS and Congress can realize Telangana! And if they can't give Telangana people Telangana now, there is no reason for people to believe they can fulfill the promise at any time in the future.

Nicely summarized Rajesh saar.

I'm not sure you have seen my post in the NaMo thread where I mentioned that Sushma Bhen & MIM were responsible for getting YSR Jagan from jail. This is from an inside source ( Congress MP ).

What this indicates is that BJP is in talks with YSRC, TDP and TRS.

Regardless of whether a separate state is formed or not, BJP will not get very many seats, if it gets any. So, what exactly is the game plan here? Like, others have indicated, Congress Mukth AP.

YSRC, TRS and TDP may have shown an inclination to work with BJP. And these folks know which way the wind is blowing. They will have to work with someone in the center and I feel they are hedging their bets.

Basically, CongI is finding itself behind the 8-ball. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. I likey, likey