AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[RajeshA]

vnmshyam ji, nageshks ji, ramana garu,

thanks for your thoughts.

nageshks ji,

could you please give your breakdown of support for Telangana in the Lok Sabha.

INC (non-Seemandhra), NCP, RLD, TRS, ...?

TIA

[Yagnasri]

Sir, NCP, RLD are not there in AP. Till now mafia is playing the game ij AP. If what you people writing is true, the TRS, BJP, YSRC, TDP all joined the game. It is like who will win Delhi get AP. Tdp will now support who ever non congress in Delhi as they don't have any other option. Jagan got CBI cases so like to be frind of Delhi. Rao need money and power. He may not get them under MODI. But he would like to keep his party and be in the side of Delhi.

So if mafia loses Delhi, then almost all AP fellows, including residual mafia leaders of coastal, Rayalaseema may wish to support Modi as they have nothing to gain in supporting a mafia hated by their people and out of power.

May be my wishful thinking, but I feel mafia will lose in AP all regions heavily with or with out division now and gainers will be others who may share the spoils. They will not support nationally powerless mafia.

[Shanmukh]

RajeshA-ji,
The numbers breakdown you sought.

The Numbers Game

For the Telangana Bill, the numbers are very delicately poised. The following is the composition of the Lok Sabha currently. Out of the possible 545 members in the Lok Sabha, there are four constituencies vacant. Bilsapur (death of Dilip Singh Judeo (BJP)), Saran (disqualification of Laloo Prasad Yadav (RJD)), Jahanabad (disqualification of Jagadish Sharma (JD(U)), and Nagaland (resignation of Chongshen Chang (NPF)). These four votes will not be cast. This leaves the other 541 seats to worry about. The speaker, Ms. Meira Kumar is not going to cast her vote either. So, she can be ignored as well. This brings down the effective strength of the Lok Sabha to 540. Consequently, if the Congress can muster a strength of 270, it is going tobe safe (the speaker's vote will then come into play, if the Congress can muster a strength of 270.

Now, we will try to surmise who will vote for the Telangana Bill and who will vote against.

The ones who are definitely going to vote for the Bill are the following
Congress – 206
BSP – 21
JD(U) – 19
NCP – 9
RLD – 5
NC – 3
IUML – 2
JMM – 2
TRS – 2
MIM – 1
KC (M) – 1
VCK – 1
SDF – 1
BVA – 1
BPF – 1
SWP – 1

A total of 276. These are certain to vote for the Bill. However, one of these is the Speaker, Meira Kumar, and she will not be voting, so it is likely that the votes for the Bill will come down by 1, and come to 275.

Assuming that the BJP opposes the bill, the definite votes against the bill include.
BJP – 116
SP – 22
TMC – 19
DMK – 18
CPI(M) – 16
BJD – 14
SS – 11
TDP – 6
CPI – 4
SAD – 4
AIFB – 2
RSP – 2
YSRCP – 2
AGP – 1
JD(S) – 1
HJC – 1
MDMK – 1
This leads to a total of 240.

This leaves a bunch of unknowns, who between them have the remaining 24 votes. These include
AIADMK – 9
Independents – 9
RJD – 3
JVM – 2
AUDF – 1

Assuming that the BJP can sweet talk Jayalalitha and Babulal Marandi to vote against the Congress, the opposition numbers add up to 251. However, almost certainly, the Congress will be able to get the AUDF and most probably, even RJD, to vote for it, so their strength goes to 279. This leaves the 9 independents.

I checked who the 9 independents are

Khan,Shri Hassan Ladakh(Jammu and Kashmir )
Kora,Shri Madhu Singhbhum(Jharkhand )
Mandal,Dr. Tarun Jaynagar(West Bengal )
Mandlik,Shri Sadashivrao Dadoba Kolhapur(Maharashtra )
Meena,Dr. Kirodilal Dausa(Rajasthan )
Namdhari,Shri Inder Singh Chatra(Jharkhand )
Putul Kumari,Smt. Banka(Bihar )
Singh,Shri Kalyan Etah(Uttar Pradesh )
Yadav,Shri Om Prakash Siwan(Bihar )

Out of these 9, I think we can count on Messrs. Hassan Khan, and Madhu Koda to vote for the Congress, certainly, taking the tally up to 281. On the other hand, we can almost certainly count on Shri. Kalyan Singh to vote against the Congress, taking the opposition tally to 252.

As of now, the certain tally is 281 to 252, with 6 independents of unknown sympathy. Even if all the 6 were to vote with the opposition (a most optimistic supposition), the Congress will still lead 281 to 258. The more pessimistic (probably realistic approach) is for the Congress to grab all the 6 independents to its side, making the situation 287 to 252.

Now, there are 19 MPs from SeemaAndhra in the Congress. It all boils down to how many the BJP can get to revolt against the Congress. In the pessimistic case, the BJP would need to get 18 out of the 19 to revolt against the party high command (a most unlikely scenario). However, in the optimistic scenario, the BJP would need to get about 12 MPs to revolt. Consequently, the BJP, to be able to stave off the Telangana Bill needs a fortuitous alignment of circumstances. It is unlikely to materialise, in the current situation. The Congress, if it wishes, can ram down the Bill, BJP's opposition notwithstanding. Also, government money bags will play a massive role in any situation so fraught. The BJP would be well advised not to venture into these uncharted waters, without some serious calculations.

[a_bharat]

^
It is highly unlikely that BJP will oppose the T Bill. At most, they will make some noise about addressing the concerns of non-T regions.

[Yagnasri]

Plus DMK also may not support a division assembly has rejected. So there is a 18 plus 19 votes doubt. If bjp seriously oppose division will not take place and mafia is dead in AP.

[chaanakya]

^
It is highly unlikely that BJP will oppose the T Bill. At most, they will make some noise about addressing the concerns of non-T regions.

If BJP opposes T Bill---- Whether Seemandhra would vote for them?? Whether they will lose T seats??
If BJP supports T Bill --Whether T would vote for them?? Whether they would loose Seemandhra seats?

Electorally BJP would not suffer as they are not having much base in AP. The question is how BJP vote would affect prospects of congis and other players? If T bill is passed congis would gain handsomely in T area but lose S Area. If they fail to get it passed They would lose T area and Jagan would be routing then in S Area. But any party other than congis are not going to align with BJP. TDp is , now marginal player. But Congis as a force post 2014 would cease to exist if they loose AP. Therefore BJP should keep neutral and highlight the need for amicable solutions i.e. unless T wholesomely pledges to vote them if T Bill is supported. I think Telugu people, who are supporters of BJP , are only confined to this forum. And unless AP plays it smart they are going to become irrelevant in national politics and will have five years to reconvert.

[chaanakya]

BJP should play dead duck in this game.

[a_bharat]

^
It is highly unlikely that BJP will oppose the T Bill. At most, they will make some noise about addressing the concerns of non-T regions.

If BJP opposes T Bill---- Whether Seemandhra would vote for them?? Whether they will lose T seats??
If BJP supports T Bill --Whether T would vote for them?? Whether they would loose Seemandhra seats?
...
TDp is , now marginal player. But Congis as a force post 2014 would cease to exist if they loose AP. Therefore BJP should keep neutral and highlight the need for amicable solutions

By blindly, unconditionally supporting T (this is what they have been doing all these days), BJP isn't going to win any MP seats -- even in T. TRS + Cong will be the winners in T. If BJP wants any support from AP, the most reliable option at this point is TDP.

The best course for BJP now is not to go back on T, but make its support to T Bill conditional to addressing the concerns of the other regions beforehand. This way, it can continue to exists in both T and non-T regions, and can also contribute a little bit to alliance partners (TDP or YSRCP).

[chaanakya]

The best option is to see that Congis get routed as outcome of passing of bill or its failure to get it passed. TDP is not a force to reckon with as they are like NikU hence they should be made to concede major grounds so that BJP can get their seats and votes as well. But at the end idea should be to see Congis not getting any ground. Later BJP can think if it wants T or S and play accordingly. But unfortunately , lives of people are involved and whatever decision is there, one should ensure that lives are not lost in either place. They are more precious than the politics.

[Shanmukh]

Plus DMK also may not support a division assembly has rejected. So there is a 18 plus 19 votes doubt. If bjp seriously oppose division will not take place and mafia is dead in AP.

Narayana Rao-ji
I put DMK among the opposers, not among the supporters of the Telangana Bill. I am sure the DMK will oppose the Bill.

There are three things key to the whole episode.

1) Can Modi break the JD(U)?
2) How will the independents vote?
3) How many SeemaAndhra people rebel?

There are huge rumblings in JD(U). If Modi stands up for the rights of the states, and says that the Congress has no right to divide states that are not approved by the State Assembly, he will rally a lot of state party support to his side. Consequently, by standing up for the rights of the states, and rejecting the authority of the centre to arbitrarily re-draw borders, he can grab a bunch of JD(U) MPs who will not be happy cutting down the authority of the states. There are 19 JD(U) MPs, and at least 4 were openly in revolt against NiKu. If BJP can grab about 7-8 of them, it changes the existing dynamics a lot. Already, Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad and Purnamasi Ram are on the side of the BJP, and two more are quitting the party for Laloo. If Modi can engineer the defection of three more, he will have achieved his target of breaking JD(U).

As for the independents, if Modi can grab the two Bihari independents MPs (both are JD(U) rebels) and one of the two Jharkhand independents (Inder Singh Namdhari is a JD(U) rebel - BJP had left Chatra to JD(U))), they will have done their cause a great service. That leaves Sadashiva Rao Mandlik (Atri-ji - who is this character?), Tarun Mandal (welcome any inputs from our Bengal members) and Kirori Lal Meena. Dr. Kirori Lal Meena is an old Sanghi, was part of the BJP, and does not like the Congress a lot either. He will vote in whatever direction profits him. Is it possible to reconcile him to the BJP? Vasundhara Raje could benefit from his return (he has a lot of Meena support, but he is not easy to stomach, though). So - getting 5 of the 9 independents should be possible at least.

That leaves out how many SeemaAndhra guys rebel. The BJP should be trying to do a palace coup, in Andhra. Grab everyone of significance that it can in SeemaAndhra Congress and leave the Congress in the region a shell of its former self. The question is whether there is anyone in the BJP that can do it, though. We know for a fact that Rayapati Sambashiva Rao was hobnobbing with the BJP, promising to bring support to defeat the Telangana Bill, and join the BJP in the aftermath of their expulsion. Question is - whether it is enough. At least a dozen of the 19 SeemaAndhra MPs need to revolt against the high command to successfully defeat the Telangana Bill. If Rayapati can produce them (and realistically speaking, they are all putting their careers on the line by supporting the high command line on the bifurcation of the state), and they join the BJP, I would say it is in the interest of the BJP to go ahead and defeat the T Bill.

The thing though is this. The BJP should definitely not jeopardise its position in Telangana for the sake of an alliance with the TDP. If the Telangana Bill is defeated, it will be only courtesy the BJP. The BJP should get full credit, and make sure that the likes of the TDP don't cadge that credit. The BJP should take advantage of the split in Congress by grabbing as much of the SeemaAndhra Congress as it can. If the BJP cannot do it (whether it is because they do not have the numbers, or because they cannot get the SeemaAndhra Congressmen to join the party), then it should let the Bill go ahead, and try to grab as much of the TDP and YSRCP in Telangana. The vital point the BJP should keep in mind is its political interest in Andhra. No point risking a lot for the sake of an insincere alliance with a bunch of backstabbers. If the party can get a good share of the carcass of the Andhra Congress, the BJP should go ahead. Else, no.

Added: There is also a question of what Sansuma Khungurr Bwiswamuthiary (BPF MP from Kokrajhar) is going to do. For more than a decade, he has been in bed with the Congress. But after the recent Bodo-Muslim riots, he is said to be feeling the heat. Can he be drawn into the BJP side? Anyway, the BJP should go to the polls with a Bodo ally. If Bwiswamuthiary does not play ball, the BJP should go with U G Brahma, and his BPPF.

[Shanmukh]

^
It is highly unlikely that BJP will oppose the T Bill. At most, they will make some noise about addressing the concerns of non-T regions.

If BJP opposes T Bill---- Whether Seemandhra would vote for them?? Whether they will lose T seats??

They don't have any seats to lose in T. Kishan Reddy, in 10 years, has not been able to do much.

If BJP supports T Bill --Whether T would vote for them?? Whether they would loose Seemandhra seats?

If BJP supports the T Bill, it depends on what happens to the YSR Congress and TDP in Telangana. Can the BJP get them to defect in its favour? Possibly, but I am not too sure.

[RajeshA]

nageshks ji,

thanks for the Numbers.

I have some doubts about the voting pattern of some parties and MPs.

1) NC (3) too would not support the Telangana Bill. NC is afraid of Ladakh and Jammu asking for separation.

2) JD(U) (19) has two rebels tending towards BJP: Jainarayan Nishad (Muzaffarpur) and Purnamasi Ram (Gopalganj).

3) BSP (21) has one rebel tending towards BJP: Vijay Bahadur Singh (Hamirpur), who had praised Modi after the "puppy" remark.

4) INC (206) has one rebel tending towards BJP: Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon)

This alone is 7 MPs less for Congress.

JD(U), BSP may also demand too high a price for their support, seeing the Congress with a weak hand. Not clear if Congress would agree. Also in case Mayawati or Nitish Kumar hope to become PMs of some third front, they can forget support from Seemandhra in the future, be they YSRCP or TDP.

Around 10 Congress MPs from Seemandhra had at one time handed in their resignation which LS Speaker had rejected.

Also should the Congress suffer a heavy defeat in the State Assembly Elections in Nov-Dec, which is expected, many more MPs may not be willing to support Congress.

[Shanmukh]

nageshks ji,

thanks for the Numbers.

I have some doubts about the voting pattern of some parties and MPs.

1) NC (3) too would not support the Telangana Bill. NC is afraid of Ladakh and Jammu asking for separation.

They have committed themselves to supporting the Bill. Besides, they are in alliance in J-K. They won't want to compromise their own government, at the moment.

2) JD(U) (19) has two rebels tending towards BJP: Jainarayan Nishad (Muzaffarpur) and Purnamasi Ram (Gopalganj).

3) BSP (21) has one rebel tending towards BJP: Vijay Bahadur Singh (Hamirpur), who had praised Modi after the "puppy" remark.

4) INC (206) has one rebel tending towards BJP: Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon)

This alone is 7 MPs less for Congress.

All excellent points, RajeshA-ji. There is also the question of what Bwiswamuthiary (BPF MP from Kokrajhar) is going to do. He was part of UPA, but he may be induced to jump ship now.

JD(U), BSP may also demand too high a price for their support, seeing the Congress with a weak hand. Not clear if Congress would agree.

Maya has already committed herself to support the Telangana Bill (apparently, she supports smaller states). Not sure what NiKu's thoughts are. But he will vote with the Congress just to spite Modi, I fear.

Around 10 Congress MPs from Seemandhra had at one time handed in their resignation which LS Speaker had rejected.

Yes. And I am hopeful that this bunch can be induced to defect to the BJP. Some of them are real heavyweights and well worth picking for the BJP. In fact, the BJP should make their entry into BJP a pre-condition for its support of the SeemaAndhra. The BJP should not, repeat definitely not, settle for any alliance of any sort in SeemaAndhra. If it has to do all the mobilisation and hard fighting, it should reap the rewards, not the two bit single digit MP parties like YSR Congress or TDP.

Also should the Congress suffer a heavy defeat in the State Assembly Elections in Nov-Dec, which is expected, many more MPs may not be willing to support Congress.

This is quite possible. But I just gave the situation as it is, at the moment.

[RajeshA]

Around 10 Congress MPs from Seemandhra had at one time handed in their resignation which LS Speaker had rejected.

Yes. And I am hopeful that this bunch can be induced to defect to the BJP. Some of them are real heavyweights and well worth picking for the BJP. In fact, the BJP should make their entry into BJP a pre-condition for its support of the SeemaAndhra. The BJP should not, repeat definitely not, settle for any alliance of any sort in SeemaAndhra. If it has to do all the mobilisation and hard fighting, it should reap the rewards, not the two bit single digit MP parties like YSR Congress or TDP.

nageshks ji,
I agree completely. BJP needs to rethink its strategy.

If BJP under Modi's rising popularity promises all Seemandhra Congress MPs to nominate them as BJP candidates from their current seats, should they vote against Congress plan for Bifurcation, it would help both sides. It would help BJP to capture Seemandhra, as well as stop the bifurcation itself. These MPs would be hailed as the ones who stopped the bifurcation.

I think BJP should think about stopping Jagan and not TRS.

As the gurus have analyzed here on this thread, Congress plan is to partner TRS in Telangana and leave Seemandhra for Jagan. Both TRS and Jagan's YSRCP become Congress's B Teams. So effectively Congress again wins AP.

If Telangana Bill does not go through, Congress is finished not just in Seemandhra but also in Telangana. TRS would become independent of Congress influence in Telangana region of undivided AP, and BJP can win half the seats in AP and let TDP win the other half.

Both TRS and TDP would become BJP's partners at the center, with BJP itself having a sizable number of MPs (ex-Congress MPs + others).

AP Turmoil should be used by BJP to finish off Congress for once and for all in AP.

[vivek.rao]

Does this Telangana bill need 2/3 majority or simple majority?

Since this is a constitutional amendment, I thought they need 2/3.

[ramana]

nageshks good job.

Narayana Rao the T question is one in which AP has minimum role. Its decided by all the others. Something for Telugus to reflect on.


rajeshA you have mail.

[Yagnasri]

Let us hope people are not reflecting too much. Some of the ideas people speaking here will create another Kashmir. The submissions of task force note itself records serious fears. Fear and anger lead to Dark Side as Master Yoda says. Nothing will happen if thd things are managed properly. But KCR gang is going to create further problems now.

[shyamoo]

The end game in AP, from a BJP/National perspective is simple. Effectively end CongI in the state.

KCR, YSRC and TDP will not ally with CongI post elections. CongI itself will have many that will jump parties regardless of separate T issue outcome. Back room deals are happening.

All BJP needs to do is play possum. But CongIs are trying to make BJP show it's hand, which, at this time, BJP is refusing to.

For me personally, separate T or not issue is not as important as getting rid of CongI. I do not care if BJP opposes or supports a separate T issue as long as it manages it's calculations correctly in ensuring CongI mukth AP.

[ramana]

vnshyam, a request. What was the thought process that led you to that end goal? For that appears to be the objective for INC reduction nationwide.

Even after 1977 Emergency excesses, AP gave INC 41 seats. The last one was N Sanjeeva Reddy who went on to become President.

[Shanmukh]

Just a little update. Two Congress MPs from SeemaAndhra have agreed to go by the High Command orders. Botsa Jhansi Lakshmi from Vizianagaram (is she related to Botsa Sathyanarayana?) and Chinta Mohan from Tirupathi are good Congress loyalists. The possible number of rebels is, consequently, 17, not 19. Also, 10 of the 19 have resigned. No idea what the other 7 plan to do. They are playing their cards close to the chest.

[shyamoo]

vnshyam, a request. What was the thought process that led you to that end goal? For that appears to be the objective for INC reduction nationwide.

In the rest of the country or in the states where BJP has a chance to gain/increase tally, it is aggressively working towards that goal. Preferably at CongI's expense.

Where as in AP, BJP, as far as I can tell, will not be getting any seats ( may be a couple here and there ). But it has a chance to muddle CongI's chances. Whether a separate T becomes a reality or not, congI's are definitely in trouble. Damned if they do and damned if they don't. Depending on how things shape up by election time, BJP will decide on their vote regarding T state. Until then, let CongI did themselves a bigger hole.

KCR's recent demands and the background work being done by BJP indirectly does not work in favor of congI.

The joker in the pack is definitely YSRJ. Indications are that he will be willing to work with BJP.

BJP leadership has been in talks with all parties opposed to CongI in the state. Why would BJP do that when there is a very very remote chance of getting any seats? Once the equation of who will be aligning with whom post election is decided, BJP will show it's hand.

Even after 1977 Emergency excesses, AP gave INC 41 seats. The last one was N Sanjeeva Reddy who went on to become President.

I do not know the status of congi in the state at that time. However, CongI in AP is in disarray at this time. But you never know how things will turn out. Hopefully, not a post 1977 redux.

[Muppalla]

Does this Telangana bill need 2/3 majority or simple majority?

Since this is a constitutional amendment, I thought they need 2/3.

It needs 2/3

[RajeshA]

Does this Telangana bill need 2/3 majority or simple majority?

Since this is a constitutional amendment, I thought they need 2/3.

It needs 2/3

The other states (Uttaranchal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh) as far as I know were created by a simple majority!

[Vayutuvan]

However much people want to wish away Congress (I) the party, that is not going to happen. It is time people live with that reality. India will have two parties - one left of the center which is called CongI today, and another a little to the right which is called BJP today. Let us not mistake Nehru-Gandhi dynasty for the party. Parties far from the center on both left and right are going to attract small sized constituency onlee. This situation will hold as long as there are no "Black Swan" political events to upset Indian democratic process.

[Muppalla]

The other states (Uttaranchal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh) as far as I know were created by a simple majority!

I don't know because both INC and BJP together voted for them.

[Yagnasri]

Art 3 simple majority amount the people attend and voting. Not much problem as bjp supporting it. Bhadrachalam now major issue. This division added to Khammam from Godavari after state is formed. But mostly will be submerged if polavaram dam is built. So where should it go? Naturally Telangana leaders want it as it is in Khammam now and no polavaram should be built as per them.

Division will not be allowed to be end of issues. It will be start. Huge political industry built over years and earned money needs some thing to further earn.

[manju]

This is regarding Kiran Kr Reddy. I had the impression he was a politician with ok character.

He has weakness for wimmen. A couple I know had dinner with him (they were invited by a common friend). Our CM kkr at the end of the meeting asked this women for her phone number. The common friend had apparently warned the lady not to share her phone number in case he (kkr) asks for it.

Until now I though he was a decent guy.

[Yagnasri]

not looking for money. From goood family. But sport person with out going personality. you know what I mean

[Muppalla]

If there is no need of 2/3 then wtf there is always BJP in this discussion. Even if BJP is for united AP, the bill will pass in parl. This freaking unnecessary discussion.

[Dasari]

I don't know how this 2/3 majority discussion started here. As far as state division is concerned, a simple majority on the floor of the parliament is enough. The only place where 2/3 majority becomes relevant is if they want to amend the article 371-d which is related to special provisons with respect to the state of Andhra Pradesh. Nobody is sure how they can divide the state without deleting this clause. There is lot of ambiguity here. The position that Congress is taking is that once the state is divided, the courts cannot undo it. At the worst they can reprimand the govt that doesn't exist anymore. However, as soon as President sends it to the assembly, expect tonne of lawsuits in supreme court to force an injunction. This is the only hope left for united AP. Some people already filed in high court but it was rejected as there was no basis for the court to act as officially nothing happenned.


Here is a report from Indian express where it cites that artcile 371-d doesn't need to be amended.
No need to amend Article 371-D, expert tells MIM

However there are experts who contradicted this view.

[Yagnasri]

There are going to be further problems. Hyd as UT is still not out of table. Further Bhadrachalam division joining costal areas is also not acceptable to T vadis. Being under Islamic rule the famous temples are T region like Narasimha Swamy temple at Yadagiri Gutta etc were not developed with infrastructure etc. Where as Thirupathi and other temples have comparitively better connectivity etc and people visit them in large number. Bhadrachalam of course is a very improtant temple and lose of this Temple will create further agitations etc. Now they are draging Kancherla Gopanna's family person some one called Kancherla Srinivas and he is making Telangana statements. TRS is already going to town everywhere on this. But since most of the division will be submerged very deep in Polavaram Dam water it is most likely the areas and Temple is given to Godavari District.

Further Land, Police, etc are going to under Gov rule and water will be under board. Police from other areas will be posted in Telangana to provide protection to non locals. No repartriation of employees, No rights on water independently, No reservations etc for locals in education etc.

With all this what is this what is the use of Telangana divition.

[Muppalla]

* The interesting thing is that per Diggy Raja and Jaipal Reddy, there will be an introduction of bifurcation resolution in Assembly on 26th and bill in parliament immediately. Jaipal Reddy is talking or two CMs on Jan 1st 2014

* However, KKR denied that there will be any such thing and he is not in favor of bifurcation.

* The high command has asked Kotla Suryaprakash Reddy to take CMship as a dynasty loyalist. He rejected the idea to be last CM of United AP.

* The rebellion of sorts is limiting congress parity's abilities to do a formality of introduction of resolution. At this juncture making T-CM to introduce resolution is also impossible because he will lose trust on the floor.

Now the talk of introduction in parliament without even any assembly resolution is making the rounds. Per TV-9 program (conducted by Rajanikanth) that I watched:
(1) hilariously the discussion is around BJP. I really cannot understand it because if INC wants to desperately pass this they can pass without BJP's support in parliament. BJP has no say in final decision
(2) Madhu Yashki (T-INC MP) claims that Modi is not in favor of T while Sushma is in favor. (same old stuff but on TV first time by a congress MP)
(3) Venkaiyya Naidu is in favor of following due process
(4) Undavalli (INC MP from Rajamundry) asks BJP what is their stand? When they created three stated they followed a dharma. Will they stick to the dharma or will they do adharmic things when it comes to Telangana?

This is now a suspense thriller.

[Muppalla]

RajeshA-ji,
The numbers breakdown you sought.

The Numbers Game

nagesh ji, you need to do similar analysis of Rajyasabha. I believe it will be really tricky to get it passed in RS without BJP support. The numbers don't stack up. By the way no regional party will vote in favor of this bifurcation. INLD, DMK (may be), ADMK, Mamta, SP will not vote. BSP, RLD, TRS PMK ( all those sub-regional parties) will vote.

[Shanmukh]

Now the talk of introduction in parliament without even any assembly resolution is making the rounds.

Yes, this is what I expected. But this is a very dangerous argument for the Congress to take. It will be even more dicey if the state Assembly passes a resolution against the division of the state, without consent of the Assembly. However, if the Congress does pass the Bill, it will give the BJP a chance to announce the formation of Gorkhaland, Bodoland, Kamtapur, Jammu, Ladakh, etc, which will never pass muster in the state Assemblies.

Per TV-9 program (conducted by Rajanikanth) that I watched:
(1) hilariously the discussion is around BJP. I really cannot understand it because if INC wants to desperately pass this they can pass without BJP's support in parliament. BJP has no say in final decision

Disagree with you. The point is that, after the Assembly elections, if the BJP (which is expected to perform well) does perform well, there will be a lot of reluctance among the other parties to bail out the Congress, which is seen to be failing. If the BJP does not oppose the Bill, its passage is a foregone certainty. If it does, things become extremely dicey for the Congress. It will be another nuclear deal type thing. And the Congress will be wiped out in SeemaAndhra as a consequence.

(4) Undavalli (INC MP from Rajamundry) asks BJP what is their stand? When they created three stated they followed a dharma. Will they stick to the dharma or will they do adharmic things when it comes to Telangana?

The answer to that is very simple. The BJP had representatives from both regions of the other states which they bifurcated. The BJP had a moral right to speak up on behalf of the people of both parts of the divided states. However, it has no representatives from SeemaAndhra. The people of SeemaAndhra voted for the Congress (which has double crossed it) or for parties like YSR Congress and TDP that are incapable of protecting their interests. The BJP can only speak up for the people of SeemaAndhra if the people (and representatives) of the region help them do so. Otherwise, how can it? What would be its locus standi? And how will the people of SeemaAndhra help the BJP speak up for them?

[Shanmukh]

RajeshA-ji,
The numbers breakdown you sought.

The Numbers Game

nagesh ji, you need to do similar analysis of Rajyasabha. I believe it will be really tricky to get it passed in RS without BJP support. The numbers don't stack up. By the way no regional party will vote in favor of this bifurcation. INLD, DMK (may be), ADMK, Mamta, SP will not vote. BSP, RLD, TRS PMK ( all those sub-regional parties) will vote.

Muppalla-ji,

The numbers game in the Rajya Sabha.

The Numbers Game – Rajya Sabha

The numbers game in the Rajya Sabha is equally delicately poised for the Congress. The total strength of the Rajya Sabha is 241, currently. Consequently, the total number of voters necessary to pass the Bill is 121. Those expected to vote for the Bill, are

Congress – 71
BSP – 15
JD(U) – 9
Nominated – 9
NCP – 6
NC – 2
RJD – 2
BPF – 1
JMM – 1
KC(M) – 1
LJP – 1
SDF – 1
Total – 119

Those who are expected to oppose include
BJP – 48
CPI (M) – 11
TMC – 9
SP - 8
BJD – 6
DMK – 6
SS – 4
TDP – 4
SAD - 3
CPI – 2
AGP – 1
Forward Block – 1
INLD – 1
104

Those whose stance is unknown include
Independents – 9
AIADMK – 7
MNF – 1
NPF – 1

Assuming that the AIADMK is persuaded to vote for the opposition, it is almost certain that the Congress will be able to bully the NPF and the MNF to vote for it. That brings the final tally to 121 for the Congress and 111 for the opposition. This appears to make the passage of the Bill a foregone certainty, even with the independent votes left to be counted. The Independents are

Adeeb, Shri Mohammed Uttar Pradesh
Chandrasekhar, Shri Rajeev Karnataka
Jethmalani, Shri Ram Rajasthan
Malihabadi, Shri Ahmad Saeed West Bengal
Mallya, Dr. Vijay Karnataka
Mohapatra, Shri Pyarimohan Odisha
Nathwani, Shri Parimal Jharkhand
Singh, Shri Amar Uttar Pradesh
Swamy, Shri A.V. Odisha

As you can see from the above, the bulk of them are Congress loyalists, who can be expected to go with the Congress in case of trouble. Only Ram Jethmalani can be expected to vote the opposition, bringing the total to 129 to 112. So – the passage fo the Bill in the Rajya Sabha seems a foregone certainty.

A question maybe posed. What about the Congressmen from Andhra? Can they be expected to torpedo the Telangana Bill.

There are a total of 18 constituencies from Andhra, and of the 18, one is vacant. The TDP has 4, and the Congress 13. The list below is the Congressmen from Andhra. You can compute for yourself who will vote for the Telangana.

Chiranjeevi, Dr. K.
Chowdhury, Smt. Renuka
Khan, Shri Mohd. Ali
Nandi Yellaiah, Shri
Ramesh, Shri Jairam
Rao, Dr. K.V.P. Ramachandra
Rao, Shri V. Hanumantha
Rapolu, Shri Ananda Bhaskar
Ratna Bai, Smt. T.
Reddy, Dr. N. Janardhana
Reddy, Shri Palvai Govardhan
Reddy, Dr. T. Subbarami
Seelam, Shri Jesudasu

How many can be expected to vote against the Congress? I leave this to our Andhra experts. However, it seems to me that, at least, Renuka Chowdhury, Mohd. Ali Khan, Jairam Ramesh, and Jesudasu Seelam will go with the Congress. The others – it is a toss up (I invite our resident experts to guess.). But on balance, it seems to me that the Congress does have the strength to push the Bill through in the Rajya Sabha as well.

Added: The below mentioned are the four TDP members. Can they all be expected to be loyal to the party?
Chowdary, Shri Y. S.
Goud T., Shri Devender
Ramesh, Shri C.M.
Sudharani, Smt. Gundu

On that note, is Devender Goud not from Telangana? Will he vote against the Telangana Bill?

On that note, even in Lok Sabha, there are two TDP MPs from Telangana (Ramesh Rathore from Adilabad, and Nama Nageswara Nao from Khammam). Any idea where their sympathies lie?

[Yagnasri]

As for as votes are concerned mafia will manage. BJP is already broght inside. There may not be much of a problem there. But what kind of division it will be is the question. As per the news which is mostly kite flying, All native rights will be given to non locals in Hyderabad. Provisions for special protection including non local industries, firms, properties. Land and police will be under Delhi for 10 years. Bhadrachalam will go to Godavari ( strict no for T vadis) No repatriation of Govt employees. No discrimination in educational admissions, jobs etc. No powers to special provisions to locals etc. Movie industry, professionals like Auditors etc shall have full and equal rights. With all these things what is the use of Telangana State??? I do not know.

The IT carridor sanctioned to Hyd with 2.14 Lakh Cr may now go to Vishakhapatnam. High Court also will go with 2 or 3 benches. Huge amounts of benifits are being promisses to costal and Rayamaseema areas.

One more serious ideas still be considered to the fate of Hyderabad. Making it UT live Delhi or Panducheri, Chandighar model. Greater Hyderabad area Ministers Mukhesh Gowd, Danam Nagendram were called to Delhi for a meeting tomorrow.

Rayala Telangana drama is also there. But it may not happen.

[Muppalla]

Disagree with you. The point is that, after the Assembly elections, if the BJP (which is expected to perform well) does perform well, there will be a lot of reluctance among the other parties to bail out the Congress, which is seen to be failing. If the BJP does not oppose the Bill, its passage is a foregone certainty. If it does, things become extremely dicey for the Congress. It will be another nuclear deal type thing. And the Congress will be wiped out in SeemaAndhra as a consequence.

Either way congress is not there in SeemaAndhra. If BJP shows some solidarity at this stage there is not a chance for it get even 100 votes per seat. To me it is just better to go with the INC and vote for the split of the state. There are certain advantages as the euphoria of INC having advantage of splitting the state will wither away as TRS merger will be coming at an unbearable cost to INC. The T-TDP portion can become up from grabs and at least it can compete in Telangana. Who know a splits-vill in T-TDP, TRS all can be converted to BJP's advantage.

To me at this stage the SeemaAndhra region should be considered de-militarized zone and should treated as untouchable area. Let it stew in its own broth for a while before the population realizes their mistakes.

[Yagnasri]

Interesting idea. Treating people as untouchable because they have voted diffrently. The same people help Atal to be power. But that is old news. May be they also may end concluding since they are untochable lets us part ways parmanently. You can not do such things and maintain national unity.

May be NDA have should allowed WB to join Bangladesh as they regularly voted for communists?

[Muppalla]

Interesting idea. Treating people as untouchable because they have voted diffrently. The same people help Atal to be power. But that is old news. May be they also may end concluding since they are untochable lets us part ways parmanently. You can not do such things and maintain national unity.

May be NDA have should allowed WB to join Bangladesh as they regularly voted for communists?

This is the nonsense we keep repeating over and over again.

Let me write two lines:
(1) Democracy is a two way street. You vote to get helped and get your things done. You get votes to do what you promised. (all this is a fair game)
(2) Strategic affairs, nation, military, borders are out of bounds for discussion of fairness - There is nothing called fair discussion. The nation has to safeguard its everything even if it is unfair means.

You are harping on the borderlines of crap because you are comparing the SeemaAndhra stuff in thread after thread to giving away Kashmir to Pakistan and WB to Bengal or Gorkhaland to China. If push comes to shove, there we will have to just kill everyone to keep the borders intact. Everything is fair in war and peace. The junk piece of stuff going on in AP is a brew restricted to it only. There are no comparisons.

Regarding politics, why is BJP a player in AP affairs. All these ******** such as undavalli or some crap keeps are bringing BJP into picture when they can't even think of getting on to it and helping to lobby. No one in Seemandhra has taken even a token interest to talk to BJP but everyone comes on pisses jaundiced urine in press. As long as the population keeps voting to these bakwass term after term then that is what they will get. Where is BJP in the picture why do everyone taunt it to be do some fair game and sacrifice its chances.

Getting to center by hook or crook is more important than this most useless-unimportant thing called AP bifurcation and far more unimportant is thinking about seemandhra.

Let the moneybags there to whom the junk-hero-worshipping seemandhrites keep salivating do something for them to succeed. A last ball is being bowled by in-form Akram/Bret Lee on a grass top pitch with Maninder Singh batting there and they have to score a six to win. Teach Maninder to score a six now. That is their last change

Political strategy wise based on what happened over last decade and half, if you just get over with it swiftly the congress game can be done with. It is like this PVNR allowed the Babri to go down and after than the BJP lost in undivided MP, UP, Rajasthan etc. He became more powerful(both Dharmic and Adharmic wise). In similar fashion to kill the mafias of Jagan, INC etc, if the states form with two CM by Jan all things will be over. When the states goes to polls in April the game of INC/Jagan/TRS will be over and new realignments of politics in the AP/Telangana will give opportunities of clarity and growth.

The power of Telugus will never go down as long as they play it right and not like the last decade and half. It is the leadership that needs to emerge. See Modi the leader of 25 seater Gujarat can do waves in UP/Bihar (two notorious states who never accepted anyone outside as leader of India with full heart). If you have it then you will always be appreciated and you don't need a gang of 42.

Start to take it positive and move on rather than this negativity of "let me destroy the nation called India because I am angry today." Every single seemandhrite has to ponder over why they lost. Yes it is agreed as it is a loss to an idea. A lot we can reason here.

[Lilo]

To me at this stage the SeemaAndhra region should be considered de-militarized zone and should treated as untouchable area. Let it stew in its own broth for a while before the population realizes their mistakes.

What mistakes ?

Cut the convoluted political shite.