AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Muppalla]

To me at this stage the SeemaAndhra region should be considered de-militarized zone and should treated as untouchable area. Let it stew in its own broth for a while before the population realizes their mistakes.

What mistakes ?

You can list in any number of fashion and I am sure you are capable.

In simple broader terms in this kali yuga you can't keep accumulating Gold only at the cost of everything else with a lot of zero-contributions and still assuming that it will be protected. In the process you did not even look back about the number of values that are being lost. In the end there is no point weeping about it. Just restructure yourself and be on top as you still can be.

[Lilo]

You didn't answer the question.

[Muppalla]

You didn't answer the question.

Based on your past posts, I am sure you are capable of getting to bottom. I am not interested into going into details at this time. Very simply put as long as we see Jagan being even a political force in AP tells a lot about the niyat (samskar) of that region especially when that portion is far more literate than states such as UP and Bihar. The region that boasts of having a chunk in global biz and global employment with tonnes of money, cannot find anyone other than a complete cultureless junk. We make fun of illiterate Bihar and caste but caste as staple food is more in the piece called as seemandhra. India's version of secularism is devotionally followed here without even questioning it and thriving too. Lot more can be written. A lot more can be written. They just kept voting to their heros because of caste and caste only inspite of being well educated and assuming that nothing happens or "let's see when it happens kind of attitude."

Their laziness towards the issues of nation and their blindness to caste only are two major mistakes and they do deserve what they get.

[Shanmukh]

You didn't answer the question.

Based on your past posts, I am sure you are capable of getting to bottom. I am not interested into going into details at this time. Very simply put as long as we see Jagan being even a political force in AP tells a lot about the niyat (samskar) of that region especially when that portion is far more literate than states such as UP and Bihar. The region that boasts of having a chunk in global biz and global employment with tonnes of money, cannot find anyone other than a complete cultureless junk. We make fun of illiterate Bihar and caste but caste as staple food is more in the piece called as seemandhra. India's version of secularism is devotionally followed here without even questioning it and thriving too. Lot more can be written. A lot more can be written. They just kept voting to their heros because of caste and caste only inspite of being well educated and assuming that nothing happens or "let's see when it happens kind of attitude."

Their laziness towards the issues of nation and their blindness to caste only are two major mistakes and they do deserve what they get.

I do not know if I would be that harsh. It is as much a phenomenon of history as anything else. The BJP, until 1991, kept going in alliances with TDP, and before that, the equally casteist socialists of the Janata Party. Put it brutally, the BJP was complicit with the others (including TDP) in the caste based politics. After 1991, the BJP tried to propose its own vision and indeed, by 1998, the BJP had made a definite mark on the region. It was the stupidity of the central BJP that traded away the BJP gains for an alliance with CBN. After that, the region has been in turmoil - TRS, PRAP, YSR CP, etc. It is as much the circumstances as the uninspiring BJP leadership that has kept the BJP out of the region. And, finally, Muppalla-ji, it is the duty of the BJP to provide an inspiring alternative vision, compared to the one propounded by the Congress and the TDP (and the other assorted parties). Is it the duty of the people of SeemaAndhra to search for an alternate vision, find it in the BJP (The Gods know that the BJP has betrayed its own vision of the 90s) and then vote for it, in the hope that the BJP rule is better?

While I agree with you about the undesirability of the people of SeemaAndhra to depend on the eternally undependable Congress or the powerless TDP or YSR Congress, it is for the BJP to show what it can offer to the people of the region and that there is a reason for the people to vote it.

You cannot compare the BJP in the north with the BJP in Andhra. The BJP in the north has existed since the 1980s and in most places, even longer in the form of the Jan Sangh. It is a new entrant in Andhra. Now is an excellent time for the BJP to show what it can offer the people, if they repose trust in it. And in that task, it needs the people of SeemaAndhra to enable it to speak on their behalf.

[Lilo]

You didn't answer the question.

Based on your past posts, I am sure you are capable of getting to bottom. I am not interested into going into details at this time. Very simply put as long as we see Jagan being even a political force in AP tells a lot about the niyat (samskar) of that region especially when that portion is far more literate than states such as UP and Bihar. The region that boasts of having a chunk in global biz and global employment with tonnes of money, cannot find anyone other than a complete cultureless junk. We make fun of illiterate Bihar and caste but caste as staple food is more in the piece called as seemandhra. India's version of secularism is devotionally followed here without even questioning it and thriving too. Lot more can be written. A lot more can be written. They just kept voting to their heros because of caste and caste only inspite of being well educated and assuming that nothing happens or "let's see when it happens kind of attitude."

Their laziness towards the issues of nation and their blindness to caste only are two major mistakes and they do deserve what they get.

Muppala ji,
Betrayal is best experienced when felt in silence .
Yet all I hear is your sermonizing from your perch onlee .
Why is that ?

Re: nageshks ji, BJP need not be just the voice of people of SA , it can as well be the voice of the people of T or any other region as well .
But first it should act like a national party and oppose any course of action on such a serious matter by a lame duck govt on the verge of getting kicked off from the office which itself is bulldozing it through just for electoral gain. BJP should insist for waiting on the renewal of mandate in both T and SA through impending elections - and with 5 years time in hand - put an independent commission to divide the resources of the old state , let the state assembly accept the division of resources and state by passing a resolution for division and then let the division happen in parliament.

Being partisan in an act which is akin to one of the parties of a divorce getting kicked out abruptly from a shared house with nothing in hand - is anyway a recipe for political extinction for BJP in SA . Even if TDP wins by some overwhelming majority in SA - there will groundswell of abhorrence to any alliance with any central party complicit in the raw deal handed to them just before election. As I understand it Muppala ji , especially prefers the latter - bitter end for seemandhra folks to banish off them from the national mainstream - till they "shape up" .

As I said earlier all this talk about a bulldozed AP division by January is a gambit by the mafia akin to the "hastened" partition drama enacted by Brits in 1947 to force an inequitable division of resources .

All the current sermonizing (and tactically prilliant scenarios being dreamt off in for the post partition future) especially in this dhaaga is bull crap.

[anjan]

BJP should insist for waiting on the renewal of mandate in both T and SA through impending elections - and with 5 years time in hand - put an independent commission to divide the resources of the old state , let the state assembly accept the division of resources and state by passing a resolution for division and then let the division happen in parliament.

The whole point of the agitation has been that the region is not adequately and properly represented with resources being monopolized by one region. This obviously presumes the Assembly is complicit in this. How then can any division be made contingent upon the approval of the same Assembly? The purpose of the state division process is basically so that the people of India as a whole(as represented by the Parliament) can improve the representational or administrative status of a section of the population with or without the agreement of a localized majority. If you start making it contingent on Assembly approval then there is zero recourse for people within the country.

On a related question people make it sounds like the Telugus would somehow be diminished on the national scene with a split. How would that work? The combined representation of the Telugus (as measured in MPs) would remain the same, just split between states. Why should that matter?

[Lilo]

^^That's why I mentioned an independent commission/committee to decide the resource split between the new states and to use its report , AP assembly is then most likely to build up consensus on both sides of the split and accept it unlike the current raw deal being bulldozed on to a particular side.
There already has been a srikrishna commission to decide on the options for the future of AP - now that the T state is the option picked by powers that be from that report, let that choice be now expressed unequivocally by the T junta by voting to a pro T party in the T region in the upcoming election.

T decision is hardly an administrative/executive decision (the touch stone for an administrative decision would be lack of arbitrariness and one characterized by a drawnout systematic decision process) mafia's rejection of the main conclusions of Srikrishna report had made it clear long back that T will be a decision made on basis of political gains of the mafia.
Basically T is now happening because people have turned the back against each other and enough bad blood and bad mouthing had occurred since last 7-8 years or so to make sure that there is no looking back.
So in that way T is a political decision(major political parties competed among themselves on who can be more T vaadi than the other) .

[devesh]

I tie the entire region's problems with the elites. they are broadly within 2 categories: keep the "central power" strong and have its backing; just keep region under control and make sure competitors don't survive.

basically, they follow one of the above 2 principles. that is the extent of their understanding of political strategy. beyond that, the question of nation, Bharat, and broader national geopolitical goals are a distant 2nd/3rd priorities.

if the "Central power" faction was actually contributing to BJP, then the State political direction would have somewhat reflected issues of national significance and greater agenda than merely regional elite power. but that section is serving the INC vacuum mentality.

the "regional power" faction, honestly, sometimes behaves as if they are the be-all and end-all. as if everything outside is not to be cared for and not "important" enough for them to care for. their only concern is making sure they are part of some national front where they are represented. beyond that, not much care for national priorities either.

in Seemandhra, who the above 2 groups are should be very obvious. in Telangana, the old-feudals are predominantly of the 1st category ("central power"). to a lesser extent, all the elites on both sides show the 2nd instinct (frog in well mentality).

[Shanmukh]

BJP should insist for waiting on the renewal of mandate in both T and SA through impending elections - and with 5 years time in hand - put an independent commission to divide the resources of the old state , let the state assembly accept the division of resources and state by passing a resolution for division and then let the division happen in parliament.

The whole point of the agitation has been that the region is not adequately and properly represented with resources being monopolized by one region. This obviously presumes the Assembly is complicit in this. How then can any division be made contingent upon the approval of the same Assembly? The purpose of the state division process is basically so that the people of India as a whole(as represented by the Parliament) can improve the representational or administrative status of a section of the population with or without the agreement of a localized majority. If you start making it contingent on Assembly approval then there is zero recourse for people within the country.

On a related question people make it sounds like the Telugus would somehow be diminished on the national scene with a split. How would that work? The combined representation of the Telugus (as measured in MPs) would remain the same, just split between states. Why should that matter?

Anjan-ji and Lilo-ji,
From what I am reading of the whole saga, the problem is one of lack of development, resources and representation for the Telangana folk and the access to Telangana resources and in particular, the security of their investments and opportunities for the SeemaAndhra people in Telangana in general, and in Hyderabad in particular that seems to be the sticking issue. The Congress formula seems to me, who has no emotions invested in the whole matter (I am not from Andhra), to be going about the matter the wrong way round. The government of the day is intent on securing political gains and in that regard, is going to go for political separation, before economic, judicial and institutional separation is achieved The first and most vital step should be the separation of the institutions (the law and order machinery, the judicial institutions and the division of resources of the two regions of the state. Given the extent to which the fates of the two regions are entwined, the government's decision to go in for an amputation of one region from the other (which is the most amiable conceivable way of describing the government's decision) seems to be disastrous for both. I would recommend a slow, step by step separation of the two regions, and the first step would be separation of the government institutions of the regions, with more representation for the Telangana people in the government institutions of the region. It may be five-ten years before the separation of the two regions is complete, but it would be an amicable divorce, while the present formula is forceful separation. In the meantime, more resources should be allocated to a new capital for SeemaAndhra (selected maybe via a referrendum), At this point, the government institutions of SeemaAndhra should be moved to the new capital. Also, a long delay in the split would allow the new capital city to attract investment, and would reduce the intensity of the fight over Hyderabad. The security of the investments would then be less of an issue. The next step would be actual revenue and economic separation based on the compromise formula. This would give the Telangana more resources and revenue to develop their region, before the last step of political separation is undertaken. All this should be based on a pre-determined timeline. As it is, the government's desperate need to secure political gains seems to have outweighed the consequences for the region. They are deliberately encouraging hotheads and malcontents of both regions to make political capital out of the chaos, and have recourse to emotional responses to an issue that demands cool headed realism. This forcible separation can only end in disaster for both Telangana and SeemaAndhra if the present political course is allowed to continue.

[Muppalla]

Truth hurts. Harshness or sermonizing or whatever you can call me. (I don't take negatively)

Lilo garu, How many commissions? Sri Krishna committee was not enough? It is a grid lock and it cannot be un-riddled to the satisfaction of everyone and that is a given forever. This resource split, allocation of budgets is all purely administrative and is being made as big deal as a weapon to put hurdles. The seemandhra can put any jargon of numbers but it really does not need any support and it can easily fend itself.

Regarding betraying who is betraying whom? This betrayal is only for political parties? not to individuals or voters? If that is the case we should not have any problems with Kashmir valley folks. Let us conduct a plebiscite. Accountability, trust is always a two way stuff whether you are an individual or an organization. All the political parties betrayed by promising Telangana state. YSRC+INC-2004, TDP-2009 and both the times they aligned with a promise and a pre-poll alliance with TRS. That is called a betrayal without any interest in actually giving Telangana. What did BJP betray if they vote with INC to create Telangana? They are saying that since ages except for five years as a coalition dharma with TDP. In fact if BJP does not vote then it is politics and betrayal of Telangana. I will defend even then is a different topic

What way BJP has any say? BJP is a national party is a reminder that Seemandhra folks reminds it when the population wants its help even though they say in no uncertain terms that they will not give more than three digit votes per seat. Why can't the leaders who want the state united are not that desperate to do a "jump-jilani" to BJP with a deal? There is no interest towards the national perspective of BJP either by the leaders or by the Seemandhra's population. The betrayal of INC has started a decade ago? Why was there no dialogue with BJP by either delegations or by jumping leaders? Every day it is a beeline towards the jailed Andhra Mahatma Gandhi called as Jagan. The expatriate and well educated Seemandrites has made a record of Google by making Jagan as one of the most searched individual on the day of his arrest.

It is hilarious to see an hour program on TV all the yahooos such as Undavalli, Madhu Yaski etc has even pus in their blood to question BJP's moves and set expectation out of it.

From a national perspective dividing this state has no national repercussions and even if some fissures are there then also they are all maneageable. From a political perspective it is in the interest of the region and nation to close the chapter even if someone gets bruised. Going to another election no this issue is a disaster. If they vote in parl and two news states are formed and in that situation the realignment of politics will be interesting and will be pregnant with opportunities for BJP.

Here is the challenge if seemandhra folks can do - Start today and take all your money bags and leaders and invest to give 25 seats to BJP with a deal. Try cutting a deal now (last ball six) and show the commitment rather than criticizing it. They are good at cutting deals with INC, Jagan etc. Try it on BJP instead of sermonizing them as to behave like Yudhistir.

Or go negative and try a 100 brindrawale/LTTE type stuff and get killed. That also will give respect in India. This whole business of making money and not giving back and doing cry baby stuff will not work and the time period is kali yuga. All the jokers talk about past warrior class stuff but they have zero in them to do anything.

[Muppalla]

nageshks ji, I will take a bet and even in another 100 years the split will never be by consensus. It has to be forced only. There is a lot more to this than this thread has.

[Muppalla]

Until even about a month ago, I was thinking that this needs 2/3rd of votes in parl. After knowing that it just needs simple majority I lost complete remaining respect to those analysts and leaders who bring in BJP into this picture. It is purely a congress thing and everything has to done or undone by it only. There is really nothing even for TDP. The whole damn thing is to bring unnecessary parties and punch them for fun. Bringing in topics like will BJP give Jammu, will BJP give Ghorkhaland etc are bs of highest order. Show me a party or leader like Mamata in AP who is saying balls to anyone who talks about split? In AP everyone starts, " we understand the sentiment of Telangana", "we are not opposed to Telangana" and what not.

The whole wrought and problem is internal and they blame others for fun. There is a saying in Telugu "muddi meedha kodithe moothi pallu ralai". Actually it is translation from Sanskrit "prusta thaadanath dantha bangaha".

[vivek.rao]

You didn't answer the question.

Based on your past posts, I am sure you are capable of getting to bottom. I am not interested into going into details at this time. Very simply put as long as we see Jagan being even a political force in AP tells a lot about the niyat (samskar) of that region especially when that portion is far more literate than states such as UP and Bihar. The region that boasts of having a chunk in global biz and global employment with tonnes of money, cannot find anyone other than a complete cultureless junk. We make fun of illiterate Bihar and caste but caste as staple food is more in the piece called as seemandhra. India's version of secularism is devotionally followed here without even questioning it and thriving too. Lot more can be written. A lot more can be written. They just kept voting to their heros because of caste and caste only inspite of being well educated and assuming that nothing happens or "let's see when it happens kind of attitude."

Their laziness towards the issues of nation and their blindness to caste only are two major mistakes and they do deserve what they get.

Very good analysis.

Why bother with unite AP? People should move on and hope some wise sense prevails in another 10-15 years.

Look at this. Rural people in Rajasthan are wising up. Wake up AP!

http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/id ... 0?irpc=932

Farmer Raghuvir Meena, who voted for Congress in the last state polls, bought two new tractors over the past few years and nearly doubled his farming area, attributing the prosperity to better farming techniques and seeds. He sent three of his four children to college to train as teachers. Now he wants to get out of farming and this time Modi has his vote.

"Modi's track record in Gujarat has excited the youth. Even I would love to see BJP come back to power, for my kids, for their jobs," he said, juggling phone calls on his mobile.

Beyond the commercial bustle, Kasba Bonli has little to offer to the groups of twenty-somethings who loiter on motorcycles in the dusty market, unable to find work.

Often the first graduates in their families, these young men say they want industries and professional jobs rather than more handouts, and they look to Modi for providing such opportunities, not Congress.

But he is also seen as a polarising figure. Critics of Modi, a Hindu nationalist, say he didn't do enough to stop religious riots on his watch in 2002 that killed at least 1,000 people, mainly Muslims, although the allegations have never been proved. Others say that despite fast growth, his state is a laggard on social and poverty indicators.

That's not the impression held by Mateem Khan, a frustrated 22-year-old Muslim resident of Kasba Bonli with a lowly data-entry job at the local office for one of the handout schemes, the only skilled work he could find.

"Look at what he has done for Gujarat, there's hardly any unemployment in the state," said Khan. Kasba Bonli's 18,000 people are about half Muslim and half Hindu.

[Dasari]

BJP should insist for waiting on the renewal of mandate in both T and SA through impending elections - and with 5 years time in hand - put an independent commission to divide the resources of the old state , let the state assembly accept the division of resources and state by passing a resolution for division and then let the division happen in parliament.

The whole point of the agitation has been that the region is not adequately and properly represented with resources being monopolized by one region. This obviously presumes the Assembly is complicit in this. How then can any division be made contingent upon the approval of the same Assembly? The purpose of the state division process is basically so that the people of India as a whole(as represented by the Parliament) can improve the representational or administrative status of a section of the population with or without the agreement of a localized majority. If you start making it contingent on Assembly approval then there is zero recourse for people within the country.

On a related question people make it sounds like the Telugus would somehow be diminished on the national scene with a split. How would that work? The combined representation of the Telugus (as measured in MPs) would remain the same, just split between states. Why should that matter?

On one hand you are saying that people and their repreșentatives of one region have been cheating T region, but on the other hand, somehow, they will work with their brethern on the T side after the state is split and all the developed resources are taken away from them. The naivety of T movement and their politics amazes us. Ever heard about saying ..'Vinaasa kaale vipareetha buddhi'. Never it is more apt than now.

[anjan]

On one hand you are saying that people and their repreșentatives of one region have been cheating T region, but on the other hand, somehow, they will work with their brethern on the T side after the state is split and all the developed resources are taken away from them. The naivety of T movement and their politics amazes us. Ever heard about saying ..'Vinaasa kaale vipareetha buddhi'. Never it is more apt than now.

It depends on what you see as "telegu interests". Is it the preservation and advancement of telegu culture and language? In that case it's a shared interest. The differences are administrative. It's silly to confuse administrative interests with "telugu interests".

[RajeshA]

The Bifurcation going through, I believe, depends to a large extent on the results of the ongoing State Assembly Elections. If any one of the States - MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan or Delhi, goes the Congress way, Congress would be able to muster sufficient support in current Lok Sabha for Telangana.

If it is 4-0 or even 5-0 (including Mizoram) against Congress, then Congress's partners may not be willing to show themselves as colluding/collaborating with Congress in the last months of this legislative period. Each satrap would want to show its independence, and normally that is always the default attitude of regional and jativadi parties just before the elections - to go at a distance from the ruling dispensation, in order not to get too much anti-incumbency wind coming their way!

If however Congress does form the government in any of the 4 states, then it would be able to ignore the losses elsewhere and keep up its spirits as a fighting force, and the media would do the rest. Then it would be easy to cajole partners like BSP and JDU to join in the Telangana bifurcation drama.

BJP has to keep its cards close to its chest and play them at the last moment, depending on whether Congress has the numbers or not!

If Congress does not have the numbers, then BJP can afford to vote against Bifurcation and thus can pretty much sweep up all the erstwhile Congress heavyweights in Seemandhra and show itself as the party that stopped a reckless partition. If Congress has the numbers then BJP would have to vote for Telangana as well, hoping to keep its little influence in Telangana politics and offer an alternative to TRS-INC-MIM in the long run.

Seemandhra Congress MPs (17-19) would go for BJP only if BJP can stop the Bifurcation and if it can't they wouldn't really care about BJP as their goose would be cooked regardless of BJP's positioning.

These state elections decide whether AP's 42 MPs go to UPA (INC+TRS+MIM in Telangana, Jagan's YSRCP in Seemandhra) or the 42 go to NDA (TRS in Telangana, BJP+TDP in Seemandhra).

I think it is a good strategy to let Sushma Swaraj campaign in favor of Telangana. Later on when the time comes to decide, BJP can either show itself as always being in favor of Telangana, if Congress has the numbers, or as having had a change of guard in BJP with ascent of Modi with an ensuing change in BJP position on the issue, in case Congress does not have the numbers.

[anjan]

From what I am reading of the whole saga, the problem is one of lack of development, resources and representation for the Telangana folk and the access to Telangana resources and in particular, the security of their investments and opportunities for the SeemaAndhra people in Telangana in general, and in Hyderabad in particular that seems to be the sticking issue. The Congress formula seems to me, who has no emotions invested in the whole matter (I am not from Andhra), to be going about the matter the wrong way round. The government of the day is intent on securing political gains and in that regard, is going to go for political separation, before economic, judicial and institutional separation is achieved

I'm somewhat torn. On the one hand the Congress has royally botched up the whole thing inspite of the time they had to actually do a good job of it. On the other, I'm not sure other states have had slow separations either. Andhra state itself was less than a year from announcement to formation. I think in this case the bad blood has been around for a long time, from the very start in '56. I don't think it was ever going to be a happy or easy split.

In any case one wonders how much we wish to blame the Congress for politicizing it. On this page itself there are so many voices asking the BJP to jump one way or the other on the same base political considerations and absorbing the very same politicians. So clearly it's not a unique position. They're simply the ones in a position of power.

[Rony]

The angst of Andhra

Shravan Reddy seems an unlikely spokesperson for the cause of a united Andhra Pradesh - he has no background in activism or political work. He is far removed from cities, based in a village called Sadum, an hour's drive from Tirupati. Till he found employment in a school, he was engaged in construction and maintenance-related work there.

Reddy's concern could be that of any person in the village.

He says the four districts of Rayalaseema, including Chittoor where he lives, as well as the nine districts of coastal Andhra, stare at woe in the event of a bifurcation.

The sentiment is also one against the Congress and its leadership. "The lady's sole ambition is to see her son as prime minister; she doesn't care about the consequences of dividing Andhra," Reddy says, referring to Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son and party Vice-President Rahul Gandhi.

In Madanapally, just 50-odd km away, the owner of a sweetmeat shop shares the anti-bifurcation sentiment prevalent in Rayalaseema. He says the Congress leadership sacrificed the interests of the people there for political gains.

The anger and concern are not exactly against the bifurcation, they are against the prospect of losing Hyderabad to Telangana. "Do you know what this means?" asks Reddy. "It means all our power plants, our rivers, the investments by countless people from coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema in Hyderabad would be wasted. It would all belong to Telangana."

The only solution acceptable to the villagers is a shared capital, as well as a share of the capital's assets. The moment Hyderabad goes Telangana's way, Rayalaseema would lose three quarters of the state's revenue accounted for by Hyderabad, along with all government jobs, Reddy says.

"What would be left for Andhra after the bifurcation? Rice fields, but no water to irrigate those. We will have to pay through our noses for power, which is now in abundance for the whole state." He points to the ironic situation regions other than Telangana find themselves in through the years. He counts the number of those from Chittoor in Rayalaseema who are now members of Parliament and of the legislative Assembly in nearby Bangalore. "People in Rayalaseema put their talent and wealth in Bangalore, while those in coastal Andhra put all their wealth and talent in Telangana. Now, if Telangana happens, we would be left with nothing."

Ahead of the upcoming general elections in the state, Reddy pronounces his verdict. "The Congress won't get a single seat here. But it would sweep Telangana. That is precisely why it is playing this game, at the cost of the future of our people."

Recently, activists from both sides met in Hyderabad to discuss the matter. Even advocates of a separate Telangana accepted if the bifurcation happened, the other side would lag by at least two decades. They predicted water wars between the two sides, as well as an adverse impact on infrastructure in the state.

K S Gopal, one of those who attended the meeting and an advocate of a separate Telangana, said the split should be carried out with some safeguards. He added the people of Andhra Pradesh were enterprising and entrepreneurial and would turn their disadvantage into gains.

As of now, this confidence isn't being seen among those in favour of a united Andhra Pradesh.

[Rony]

Political, not peoples', interests the only decisive factor in Andhra division

After dithering for many years, the Union Cabinet has made an announcement recently that Andhra Pradesh will be split into two—Telangana and Seemandhra. Andhra was created in the early 1950s and soon thereafter the States Reorganisation Commission (SRC) had proposed a formula, formally accepted by the then government, specifying language as the criterion for future division of states.

Telugu is the language of about 14 crore Indian citizens; Andhra Pradesh could be termed the 14th largest ‘country’ in the world. When such a large part of India is to be split, and when the separation is to be between people who speak the same language and share the same culture, one would expect a much greater degree of preparation, prior consultation among all interests, and a broad agreement on the major contours of the implementation. It is astonishing that the final decision clearly was the result of a sudden spurt of ‘inspiration’—there was as much preparation as in cutting a large birthday cake. Indeed, the conclusion is inescapable that the main consideration related to a crude and cynical assessment of the number of MPs that the ruling party in Delhi could garner from the bifurcation. Ultimately, such a major decision, affecting crores of Indians, is triggered by prospects of minor parliamentary benefit to the ruling party—the concerns, impact, and consequences for such a large state, sharing the same language, clearly were callously not taken into account.

A child would have predicted that the question of the capital of Telangana and Seemandhra would loom large as one requiring a broad prior consensus. We note that Hyderabad is more than 150 km north of the proposed Seemandhra border; most of Seemandhra/Rayalaseema citizens would have to go through a long road ‘corridor’ to go to the state capital—the implications of this had not been thought through. As an alternative, a new capital at Vijayawada or elsewhere in Seemandhra was not mooted in advance to build a consensus. Indeed, even the contours of the proposed Seemandhra, in effect bifurcating Rayalaseema (part to join Telangana and the rest to be with Andhra), was finalised after some changes —not based on any local population parameters or other requirements, but simply on a crude electoral estimation of potential benefit in the form of MP seats to the ruling party in Delhi—how much more callous and cruel can the administration be?

Even now it is not clear whether the Andhra Assembly will approve of the proposal to divide the Pradesh; it is not clear whether the Centre will overrule any adverse decision. Is it fair and proper to leave such major issues hanging in the air, while announcing the dismemberment of a large state, breaking up the Telugu peoples, based on short-term considerations of the Centre? Note that the creation of Uttarakhand (from Uttar Pradesh), Jharkhand (from Bihar) and Chhattisgarh (from Madhya Pradesh) was done after considering all aspects, getting the opinion of the people concerned in the proposed new states (as well as the ‘rump’), with a clear picture of where the new capital will be. Would Uttarakhand have accepted Lucknow as its capital? Or Jharkhand agreed to split Patna as joint capital with Bihar—likewise in Madhya Pradesh? It is astonishing how the issue of respective capitals of proposed Telangana and Seemandhra could be dealt with in such a cavalier manner.

Empirically, there is no evidence that smaller or bigger states are more conducive for better administration; much like the productivity of large or small farms is size-neutral—the decisive factor is the quality of management. Besides it is not the wisest thing to embark on divisions of states without pre-specifying the principles; in this case, the cart has been placed before the horse, in the sense that a second SRC could have been established to delineate the parameters. The present decision will sooner or later trigger new demands in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra among others, with equal or greater logic—one presumes that with the crass momentary-benefit approach by the Centre, these also will get decided based on the perceived benefits (i.e. one or two MPs this way or the other) to the ruling party. How unprincipled can governance be?

The Indo-Pak (now Bangladesh) border was settled in the course of two days by a surveyor, who essentially took a map and drew a line across it. That was the time when this issue had to be settled in a terrible hurry, as the Indian independence had been agreed upon. In the Andhra case, the Centre fiddled its thumb for 15 years before delineating the border in the course of two days, much like the British surveyor did during Partition in 1947— clearly, the emergency this time related to the impending 2014 elections. Imagine if there were a scramble at that time as to whether the East Pakistan capital should also have been located at Kolkata, then known as Calcutta—the dispute for Hyderabad as capital is of a similar nature. This piece is not expressing an opinion on whether Andhra should be divided or not; it is only a lament that expediency, short-term political interest of Delhi are the decisive factors—the Telugu-speaking peoples’ interests are not relevant.

[Rony]

Second coming of Telangana

The demand for a separate state in Andhra Pradesh took a violent form in 1969, under M. Chenna Reddy, who later joined the Congress and took over the reins of Andhra as chief minister in 1978. In 1969, only the Swatantra Party supported the cause of Telangana raised by the Telangana Praja Samithi. Former CMs from the Telangana region, T. Anjaiah and J.V. Rao, never vociferously espoused the cause of a separate state during their tenures. The intellectual giant of Telangana, P.V. Narasimha Rao, never articulated the need for a separate Telangana. However, under him, the highways to Karimnagar and the gauge conversion to Nanded via Nizamabad were expedited. He silently focused on the development of Telangana.

Hyderabad, on account of the untiring efforts of various leaders, received huge investments, to begin with from the Centre. Research facilities like the Defence Research and Development Laboratory, Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory and the Defence Electronics Research Laboratory, Central PSUs like the Electronics Corporation of India Limited, National Mineral Development Corporation, Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, scientific establishments like ISRO, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, National Geophysical Research Institute were established in Hyderabad. Institutions like IIIT, the Indian School of Business and Maulana Azad Urdu University came up under N. Chandrababu Naidu, and the IT boom got a fillip. The credit for creating world-class sports infrastructure in Hyderabad or a new-age airport goes to him. Hence, even non-Congress governments focused on Hyderabad and made it what it is today.

The agitation today has attained emotional overtones. The grievances listed by the separatist Telangana forces include the lack of job opportunities, exploitation of their natural resources — particularly coal, the alleged grabbing of lucrative business opportunities in Hyderabad by Seemandhra entrepreneurs, lampooning of the Telangana dialect in movies, the misuse of river waters, the influx of settlers in Telangana districts etc.

It is worthwhile to examine these perceived grievances. For example, job opportunities are Hyderabad-centric, with the IT and pharma sectors taking the lead. After the liberalisation of the 1990s, the government stopped being the largest employer. Since the 1960s, all regions of Andhra have have had equal educational opportunities, and those who picked up the requisite skills grabbed the jobs.

The coal for the thermal power plants in Vijaywada and Visakhapatnam comes from Odisha, while the power goes to Hyderabad. Many farmers of coastal Andhra and Telangana are migrating to Kenya and Ethiopia, where the governments are welcoming them — since the opportunities in a globalised world lie elsewhere. Therefore, the settlers issue is superfluous.

The water of the rivers Krishna and Godavari flow into the Bay of Bengal. Naturally, the deltas were formed in the coastal areas, and these will always benefit from excess flood water. The fight is about the flow in the lean season. In so far as the mocking of the Telangana dialect in films is concerned, the movies are produced for the box office. Chennai Express does not reflect life in Tamil Nadu; it is tailored to the box office and no mala fide intent can be attributed to it.

Hence, there is a lack of clarity in the articulation of the perceived grievances. The entrepreneurs of Andhra, with head offices in Hyderabad, competed at the all-India level and won projects, particularly roads, power plants, airport modernisation. The wealth acquired elsewhere was invested in Hyderabad; no one looted Hyderabad.

The landed gentry of Telangana procured properties in Hyderabad as a safety measure. Today, they are reaping massive gains in the city. They had come to Hyderabad on account of push factors in Telangana. Meanwhile, people from coastal Andhra, equipped with an English education, came to Hyderabad because of pull factors — particularly, employment in the clerical cadres. Both groups prospered with the rise of Hyderabad.

The crux of the problem now is who will rule Hyderabad, and not who will rule Telangana or Andhra. The larger issue is winning the next election. As Groucho Marx said, "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." The second coming of the Telangana agitation is precisely this.

[Lilo]

Political, not peoples', interests the only decisive factor in Andhra division

...
The Indo-Pak (now Bangladesh) border was settled in the course of two days by a surveyor, who essentially took a map and drew a line across it. That was the time when this issue had to be settled in a terrible hurry, as the Indian independence had been agreed upon. In the Andhra case, the Centre fiddled its thumb for 15 years before delineating the border in the course of two days, much like the British surveyor did during Partition in 1947— clearly, the emergency this time related to the impending 2014 elections. Imagine if there were a scramble at that time as to whether the East Pakistan capital should also have been located at Kolkata, then known as Calcutta—the dispute for Hyderabad as capital is of a similar nature. This piece is not expressing an opinion on whether Andhra should be divided or not; it is only a lament that expediency, short-term political interest of Delhi are the decisive factors—the Telugu-speaking peoples’ interests are not relevant.

^^ The above is by TSR Subramaniam (the cabinet Secy during late 90s).
He too makes the same comparison i was making all this while with the "hurried partition" precipitated by briturds in 1947 to the current AP scenario .

[vishvak]

+100 Liloji, we have to learn from past and mistakes of barbaric colonial times must not be repeated; in fact we should learn from experience of administration and discipline post independent. There should be people in admin and defense who could show middle finger to troublemakers.

[ramana]

Rony, Lilo, Congress has not fully committed yet. They need to beofre there is any room for others.
They run the state and the Center. In this Potemkin charade they act as if the Opposition is the ruling party!

TSRS writes clearly.

[Yagnasri]

What is TSRS???

Lost of meetings and all kinds of proposals and projections for funding today. Some of them are quite bizzare like payment of 50K cr per year to about 10 years so that a capital could be build. why nation should be paying this kind of money to Telugu people is beyond me? If division happens then Bhadrachalam will go back to coastal district of Godavari. KCR promised to his workers that he will not merge his party with mafia.

[ramana]

TSRS = TSR Subramanian who wrote the above column.

So INC is willing to prminse that much vapor money to allow them to get re-elected at the Centre?

[Vayutuvan]

Rony, thanks for the JRK Rao Indian Express article.

ramana garu, do you know JRK? John Snow would surely know him (if my guess is right). Electronics and Comm. and Industrial Engg masters and IAS, Bihar cadre. He was my classmate in post-grad and a colleague in a private company for a few years. He makes a good case for united AP. I also have close friends (classmates, extended fmily) on T side who are also making solid arguments for a split.

JRK by the way was Vigilance Officer at BDL and moved back to Bihar only recently. Sometime in 2001-2002 time frame, he was the main negotiator in securing the release of some hostages in Bihar. He is a very capable and straight person.

His parents are from Andhra region but he grew up in T where as it is exactly opposite for me.
Let us see what is going to transpire.

[ramana]

APNGO group would be a key player.

How familar are you with Bruno De Mesquita's Predictioneer's Game?


It always was about Hyderabad. Even that simple farmer from Chittoor says it eloquently.
But for 2Gs its about preventing a future rival to them.

Appears only Andhra Pradesh was capable of that. PVNR showed a preview and they were worried of YSR who got accidented.

Rise of YSR really scared and scarred them.

So all this EIC moves in haste to divide the state.

I had said before that GOM on AP was like Radcliffe Commission on Punjab.

[Vayutuvan]

How familar are you with Bruno De Mesquita's Predictioneer's Game?

(Assuming that was directed at me)

Not much, but looked at his site after hearing his name from some of your past posts.

[ramana]

The other latest factor is fear that remaining residents would vote for a non-INC dispensation in the breakaway region and negate the expected gains of dividing the state.

So back to political considerations.

[Muppalla]

The other latest factor is fear that remaining residents would vote for a non-INC dispensation in the breakaway region and negate the expected gains of dividing the state.

So back to political considerations.

If they just divide and go of the polls, this fear is true. They are not winning anywhere near Hyderabad region or in SA region. All they can bet is in about 9 districts that too if TRS throws some breadcrumbs. This also they will get at a huge cost.

For Congress, YSRC and TRS the real advantage is to keep the pot boiling for another term. Any quick resolution will have a lot to deal with politically. The freedom that comes with the finality is unbearable for the Congress party.

[Muppalla]

His parents are from Andhra region but he grew up in T where as it is exactly opposite for me.
Let us see what is going to transpire.

You should write more. The perspective that comes will be refreshingly different from the biases when you live on both sides of aisle.

[Muppalla]

How familar are you with Bruno De Mesquita's Predictioneer's Game?

(Assuming that was directed at me)

Not much, but looked at his site after hearing his name from some of your past posts.

RamaY did a pretty good job of using this model of predictions.

[Rony]

Telangana unlikely before 2014 polls

The flurry of activities notwithstanding, Telangana is unlikely to become a reality before the 2014 elections. The Congress high command - though strong in its resolve to carve out a new state - is unable to bite the bullet. This is primarily because of chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy. Though all methods have been used to persuade Kiran to fall in line - including in the last two days- he is unwilling to relent. The powers that be aver - on the basis of information from multiple sources that Kiran will resign the moment the Telangana resolution is sought to be introduced in the Andhra Pradesh assembly. Intelligence reports have also predicted that he will launch his political outfit batting for united Andhra Pradesh immediately after resigning.

But Kiran's expected resignation is not worrying the Congress high command. What the bosses fear is that any new Congress chief minister will not be able to command the majority in the assembly and win a vote of confidence. In this situation, the assembly will have to be dissolved and fresh elections ordered. "With the term of the assembly ending in April next year and even the general elections slated then, the feeling is to continue with the Kiran government till the end of the term," said a source in the inside track of the development.

However, till the elections are announced - the Congress party and the government will continue to make motions of moving forward on the matter. The group of ministers (GoM) set up to study the problem will continue its work and present its recommendations to the Union cabinet at the end of the month.

Even as the GoM goes ahead with its confabulations, Congress party bosses are also seeking legal opinion to figure out whether a newly appointed chief minister can carry on in office for a few months without facing a vote of confidence in the legislative assembly. Though President's rule is an option that the government should have ordinarily preferred to- the thinking is against this. There is an opinion that legally it may not be possible to divide the state when President's rule is on. However, in the past - in 1966- Punjab was divided in the midst of President's rule. The Congress party is also seriously mulling over the proposal to merge Anantapur and Kurnool districts with Telangana to water down the opposition to the new state in Rayalaseema region which is Jagan's stronghold. Jagan has emerged as the most potent opposition to bifurcation.

Now, it transpires that the Congress is not even sure that it will be able to get a resolution on Telangana approved in the Lok Sabha. The apprehension is that in the run-up to the general elections, the major opposition party (the BJP) is unlikely to play ball with the Congress and help to get the bill passed. Though on paper the BJP is committed to Telangana, it now senses an opportunity in the political vacuum in Seemandhra and wants to piggy ride on the back of TDP.

Analysts aver that the BJP will oppose some clauses and sub-clauses in the proposed bill and stymie efforts of the Congress to create Telangana before the elections.

Sensing this, the Congress has already initiated back channel talks with the BJP seeking support for the Telangana bill.

The TRS which is the only party unequivocally for Telangana will protest at the delay in creation of the separate state but will benefit from the delay. If Telangana becomes a reality before the elections, the party will have to share honors with the Congress for creating the new state. But if it does not happen, the party will sweep the polls in the region as people's ire in Telangana will make them vote decidedly in favour of TRS.

The delay in the creation of the new state is however going to hit business and life hard. Business and other sections of people are now mentally prepared for the bifurcation which they analyze will end the uncertainty in their lives. But for the time being it seems that the uncertainty will continue.

[Muppalla]

If they just divide and go of the polls, this fear is true. They are not winning anywhere near Hyderabad region or in SA region. All they can bet is in about 9 districts that too if TRS throws some breadcrumbs. This also they will get at a huge cost.

For Congress, YSRC and TRS the real advantage is to keep the pot boiling for another term. Any quick resolution will have a lot to deal with politically. The freedom that comes with the finality is unbearable for the Congress party.

Rony garu, I am shamelessly quoting myself. The above article is a plant. They need someone to help them to be bailed out. They are looking for judiciary, BJP etc. As Rajnath Singh made a clear statement of that they will vote for Telangana, they are trying to find KKR as reason because for KKR there is nothing to lose. This is where T-INC and others are asking to introduce the bill forcefully. In the war of nerves, BJP, TRS and T-INC should call the bluff of the parties and just try aggressively to introduce the bill in parl. Sonia actually wants it to be passed as the dynasty is very clear. It is the rest of the admin (congress, IB, intel and other structures) which are apprehensive of such a state division.

The entire congress party including KKR are just orchestrating a drama. Ultimately if the state is formed the big losers will be INC and TRS. It may surprise but the realignment of forces will be very furious. On the other hand, it will be a loss to AP if it goes to polls one more time on the issue of Telangana. The folks will be just be blinded to this issue and nothing else comes as important.

[Yagnasri]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 568823.cms

interesting news item. Now IT people are also discriminationg fellows.

[ramana]

Rony, Are you familiar with Mesquita's work?

All hail to RamaY for his use of that work.

[Dasari]

What is TSRS???

Lost of meetings and all kinds of proposals and projections for funding today. Some of them are quite bizzare like payment of 50K cr per year to about 10 years so that a capital could be build. why nation should be paying this kind of money to Telugu people is beyond me? If division happens then Bhadrachalam will go back to coastal district of Godavari. KCR promised to his workers that he will not merge his party with mafia.

I'm with you. They didn't pay even Rs 1500 crore for Chatishgarh. Other than deciding state boundaries, everything else is fake. Nothing will happen.Even the proposal of Law and order and Revenue of Hyderabad being under common governor looks bizarre when I hear experts saying that this can happen only when the new T govt (as per the preconditional agreement ) makes a formal request to this effect to the center after the split. Why would new T govt will do so when they know the division is all said and done ?

[Muppalla]

Rony, Are you familiar with Mesquita's work?

All hail to RamaY for his use of that work.

I tried to post it. it is too huge.

[RajeshA]

Telangana unlikely before 2014 polls

The flurry of activities notwithstanding, Telangana is unlikely to become a reality before the 2014 elections. The Congress high command - though strong in its resolve to carve out a new state - is unable to bite the bullet. This is primarily because of chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy. Though all methods have been used to persuade Kiran to fall in line - including in the last two days- he is unwilling to relent. The powers that be aver - on the basis of information from multiple sources that Kiran will resign the moment the Telangana resolution is sought to be introduced in the Andhra Pradesh assembly. Intelligence reports have also predicted that he will launch his political outfit batting for united Andhra Pradesh immediately after resigning.

But Kiran's expected resignation is not worrying the Congress high command. What the bosses fear is that any new Congress chief minister will not be able to command the majority in the assembly and win a vote of confidence. In this situation, the assembly will have to be dissolved and fresh elections ordered. "With the term of the assembly ending in April next year and even the general elections slated then, the feeling is to continue with the Kiran government till the end of the term," said a source in the inside track of the development.

However, till the elections are announced - the Congress party and the government will continue to make motions of moving forward on the matter. The group of ministers (GoM) set up to study the problem will continue its work and present its recommendations to the Union cabinet at the end of the month.

Even as the GoM goes ahead with its confabulations, Congress party bosses are also seeking legal opinion to figure out whether a newly appointed chief minister can carry on in office for a few months without facing a vote of confidence in the legislative assembly. Though President's rule is an option that the government should have ordinarily preferred to- the thinking is against this. There is an opinion that legally it may not be possible to divide the state when President's rule is on. However, in the past - in 1966- Punjab was divided in the midst of President's rule. The Congress party is also seriously mulling over the proposal to merge Anantapur and Kurnool districts with Telangana to water down the opposition to the new state in Rayalaseema region which is Jagan's stronghold. Jagan has emerged as the most potent opposition to bifurcation.

Now, it transpires that the Congress is not even sure that it will be able to get a resolution on Telangana approved in the Lok Sabha. The apprehension is that in the run-up to the general elections, the major opposition party (the BJP) is unlikely to play ball with the Congress and help to get the bill passed. Though on paper the BJP is committed to Telangana, it now senses an opportunity in the political vacuum in Seemandhra and wants to piggy ride on the back of TDP.

Analysts aver that the BJP will oppose some clauses and sub-clauses in the proposed bill and stymie efforts of the Congress to create Telangana before the elections.

Sensing this, the Congress has already initiated back channel talks with the BJP seeking support for the Telangana bill.

The TRS which is the only party unequivocally for Telangana will protest at the delay in creation of the separate state but will benefit from the delay. If Telangana becomes a reality before the elections, the party will have to share honors with the Congress for creating the new state. But if it does not happen, the party will sweep the polls in the region as people's ire in Telangana will make them vote decidedly in favour of TRS.

The delay in the creation of the new state is however going to hit business and life hard. Business and other sections of people are now mentally prepared for the bifurcation which they analyze will end the uncertainty in their lives. But for the time being it seems that the uncertainty will continue.

Too many parties are licking their lips.

1) TRS does understand that if Congress can't deliver Telangana, people in Telangana are going to throw out Congress as well. Telangana TDP already seems a bit orphaned. If BJP votes against Telangana, then that gives TRS the whole political space. The elections are particularly going to be on the issue of Telangana and nothing else as the whole region has been brought to a boil on this issue.

2) The ONLY party which wants Telangana before 2014 are the Telangana Congress MPs. Either they will get unprecedented pat or unprecedented kick.

3) Kiran Kumar Reddy too desperately needs some martyrdom to preserve some of his standing in AP.

4) The article does underline what I too have been suggesting: BJP is hedging its bets. It could vote against the Telangana resolution as well and try to make an entry into Seemandhra using the Congress heavyweights there.

5) I think the interesting part would be whether Congress does ask for AP Assembly's approval or even opinion or not. For the BJP, it would be in their interest if Congress approaches Lok Sabha without either martyring KKR nor taking Assembly's opinion on board. Then it's Central politics that decides the outcome of bifurcation.

6) Parties like TRS, BSP and other regional and/or seculars are actually hoping to take over the political space that Congress leaves. Sure they want to win and have some presence in the meantime, and so may opt for alliance with Congress, but in the long term all are interested in feasting upon Congress's corpse. TRS has a chance of making it big in 2014 itself.

7) The fact that Lok Sabha elections and AP Assembly elections are going to be held at the same time, gives BJP even more room for alliance making, as more seats are in play.

8 ) If Telangana does not go through before 2014 and I think it is very likely, then interesting would be how much of Seemandhra Congress moves to BJP, how much of Congress goes with YSRCP and how much goes with Kiran Kumar Reddy.

[Rony]

Rony, Are you familiar with Mesquita's work?

Yes, Ramana garu