AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

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vivek.rao
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

Now, it transpires that the Congress is not even sure that it will be able to get a resolution on Telangana approved in the Lok Sabha. The apprehension is that in the run-up to the general elections, the major opposition party (the BJP) is unlikely to play ball with the Congress and help to get the bill passed. Though on paper the BJP is committed to Telangana, it now senses an opportunity in the political vacuum in Seemandhra and wants to piggy ride on the back of TDP.

Analysts aver that the BJP will oppose some clauses and sub-clauses in the proposed bill and stymie efforts of the Congress to create Telangana before the elections.

Sensing this, the Congress has already initiated back channel talks with the BJP seeking support for the Telangana bill.
If D4 of BJP let the moronic MAFIA act on their interests, that will be very sad.

I think they have to ask CONGi MAFIA to come up with assurance to all people and how they will develop Andhra. Put the full plan blah blah blah. Tell the whole country what a mess MAFIA made for political gains and tell how easily they resolved earlier state. No plan should good enough. Keep moving the goal posts. The game was started by ITALIAN MAFIA and BJP should continue the game till the end not give an inch.
RajeshA
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Continuing the Lok Sabha strength of Congress for passing Telangana Bill

nageshks ji,

4) INC (206) has two rebels tending towards BJP: Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon), Sanjay Singh (Sultanpur).

That gives 5 sure votes from UPA ranks against Telangana Bill, plus the x Congress MPs from Seemandhra (0-19).
Muppalla
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

BJP should vote for Telangana :) along with INC next month, unless there is an assured exodus from Seemandhra's MPs, MLAs, panchayat presidents from INC, YSRC, TDP. That is how things should be negotiated otherwise BJP will always remain poor.

After the exodus, they can take a moral ground saying that we are for democracy and divide and rule. We will put a road map for bifurcation and an important component is pass the resolution for split in AP assembly. That way AP could suddenly become BJP state. :)
ramana
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Rony, Thanks.

For others Bruno De Mesquita wrote a book called "Predictioneer's Game" and was on a Bay Area Public Radio one night while I was stuck in traffic a few years ago. Among other things he said two things that drew my attention. His students had simulated Pakistan's support for Taliban and made a conclusion that a massive cash infusion (~$5B) and not dribbling would induce them to hand over the whole gang. He also had early on predicted Charan Singh to succeed Morarji Desai in the Janata Government.
I got his book and later contacted him to get access to his software. He used to give it free but folks misused it for consultancy projects without due acknowledgement. BTW he was in Africa when he gave me the permission to use it for my recreation!!!


Basically its an extension of "evolution of cooperation" theme in game theory. It allows quantification of qualitative "feel" factors. A big caveat is it assumes all are reasonable persons. That means no kuta neeti going on. Even that is handled in one manner.


One has to first quantify an issue in terms of outcomes. E.g. Separation of Andhra Pradesh is one end of the specturm. No separation is the other end. In the middle one can have various solutions.

Then one has to indentify the various players who have a bearing on the issue. One can throw in as many as one can think of. The runs will show if they are relevant or not. But too many means one doesn't know the issue! And same with too few.

Next one has to identify four things for each of these players: their position on the issue(initial connditions, where do they stand at the begining of the simulation), their relative power with each other (strongest player gets 100 and weakest is 0, but I thought only God is 100 and even weakest has some power or they are not a player, so used 90 and 10 as the limits), their flexibility (some are totally uncompromising while others are like Gumby) and if any player has veto power.

Then one specifies how many rounds of negotiations or turns. Usually a stable solution will be reached in five to six rounds. We chose 12 rounds to represent one year as situation could be fluid. The program calculates for each round the new equilibrium position, the relative changes in power of the players and how they strengthen or weaken.

Kuta Niti is handled in the paid version and is described as 'shock' where for each player their power goes up or down randomly.* In essence it models wildcard.

We modelled veto power to only INC chief as the UPA is the central govt.

When the simulation was run in Dec 2010 i.e. one year after P. Chidambaram made his midnight announcement to separate Andhra Pradesh, we had ~15 players (any one with even an iota of interest or power). If there are no fixed positions (all are amicable: resolution in Assy, equitable resources distributed, no blowback in other states, in general like in the three Northern states) the separation would be in three rounds!

Next simulation was with fixed positions of some local players. Again separation in five six rounds.

Next simulation was with fixed position for some UPA players with potential to fracture their states. The solution converged to a big financial package to the under developed regions and local autonomy to address perception of neglect. We had shown this to some Bay Area members at my home in 2011 for comments

Along the way it showed strange combinations and changes in power:YSRCP and MIM coming together etc.

And we gave it a rest for three years. Along the way power was reduced for some players and others faded away: DMK got the Telecom scam, Mamta didi quit, Mulyam Singh got embroiled in CBI cases.

All these strenghtend the INC in the meantime. However rise of NAMO and his AP visit gave BJP some power which was not there before.

The latest simulation with new factors and reduced players last Saturday showed exactly what the news report said about KKR!!!

Hence my all hail RamaY!

Along the way we learnt that some players who appeared relevant were not due to misperception, irrelvance and other players already address their issues.

Overall big picture comment.

In Telugu there is a saying "Mondivadu raju kante balawantudu!" i.e. A stubborn fellow is more powerful than a king. We see this in everyday life too!
Mesquita kind of reaffirms this in a quantitative manner.

My conclusion is nothing beats a stubborn king!!!

CBN by being on both sides of the fence is becoming irrelevant. In round after round he is shown to be a non-entity.


* I suggested a Monte Carlo type run for each player in the full up version. Its being considered.

Will load the old analysis in slideshare this weekend.

Hesitant to load the new run till we go over each data point and understand what it means.


We next plan to run the West Asia, East Asia and the big game of US, Russia, China, India.
RajeshA
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Muppala ji,

there was a news item with a Congress MP from Seemandhra promising to support BJP along with other colleagues if they were to oppose bifurcation. But that is what I hope/think would come to pass.
ramana
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Muppalla wrote:BJP should vote for Telangana :) along with INC next month, unless there is an assured exodus from Seemandhra's MPs, MLAs, panchayat presidents from INC, YSRC, TDP. That is how things should be negotiated otherwise BJP will always remain poor.

After the exodus, they can take a moral ground saying that we are for democracy and divide and rule. We will put a road map for bifurcation and an important component is pass the resolution for split in AP assembly. That way AP could suddenly become BJP state. :)

Err it will lose its newly acquired power.
It should make INC jump the stick.

AP has to be given an alternative.
By voting with INC, it would be back to square one and INC will regain its power eventually due to old tactics of power and pelf.
Muppalla
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

RajeshA wrote:Muppala ji,

there was a news item with a Congress MP from Seemandhra promising to support BJP along with other colleagues if they were to oppose bifurcation. But that is what I hope/think would come to pass.
These guys talk too much to sweeten BJP. In AP you should verify and not do things on trust :) for party like BJP. They need a meeting and a press declaration of these 150 MPs, MLAs, 150 past MPs, 60 100cr+ asset wala industrialists, merchants joined BJP. Then the ball rolls. Otherwise stick to passing Telangana bill with Sonia. :). Deal time for AP folks who want the state to be united.

Ramana garu,

Yes BJP should give alternative but it has to aggressively sell it for a deal. Otherwise the players will continue the same story for another 5 years.
devesh
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

I will not comment on what BJP should ultimately do.

but one thing is for sure: don't give INC room to maneuver. corner them. force them to piss off as many people (powerful and common people) as possible. reduce their power in a tangible way which cannot be recovered. to the point where even INC has to bow to reality and accept that it has lost some of the levers it previously used to possess.
RajeshA
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Muppalla wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Muppala ji,

there was a news item with a Congress MP from Seemandhra promising to support BJP along with other colleagues if they were to oppose bifurcation. But that is what I hope/think would come to pass.
These guys talk too much to sweeten BJP. In AP you should verify and not do things on trust :) for party like BJP. They need a meeting and a press declaration of these 150 MPs, MLAs, 150 past MPs, 60 100cr+ asset wala industrialists, merchants joined BJP. Then the ball rolls. Otherwise stick to passing Telangana bill with Sonia. :). Deal time for AP folks who want the state to be united.
Most definitely check with due diligence. I was just saying there is a market out there for BJP to tap into.
ramana
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Something that has been discussed here.

Hindu on KKR's rebellion

Its Congress vs Congress on Telangana
With Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy opposing the Congress Working Committee’s decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh, the party is looking at various options to rein him in.

Bucking the trend of Congress leaders unquestioningly falling in line with the high command’s diktat, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy has launched a one-man rebellion over Telangana, which seasoned party managers are struggling to quell before it gets out of hand.

Hailing from a Congress family, Mr. Reddy is not a rebel by nature. He became one after the muddle created by the Congress Working Committee’s (CWC) ill-timed decision on July 30, eight months before the general election, to divide Andhra Pradesh and create a new State of Telangana.

Party leaders are buffeted between Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s insistence on implementing the CWC resolution and Mr. Reddy’s equally adamant stand opposing bifurcation. But, as they have to please the party supremo before tackling Mr. Reddy, Ministers and bureaucrats are working overtime, preparing voluminous reports on how to partition Andhra Pradesh, and the life thereafter.

Understanding sensitivities

The Congress is in such haste that it finds itself out of step with the government. For instance, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Digvijaya Singh promised that the bifurcation issue would be referred to the Assembly twice, while Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde held that only the Telangana Bill, not the resolution favouring bifurcation, would be discussed in the State legislature.

The problem arises not with the galloping pace at which reports are being prepared, or the party-government disconnect, but from apprehensions that established procedures and conventions are being short-circuited or bypassed, and a new State is being created on the basis of a poorly negotiated settlement.

The essence of Article 3 of the Constitution dealing with the reorganisation of States is federalism. The Centre has given short shrift to this concept by brushing aside the reservations of the Chief Minister, the Leader of the Opposition and the Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president. Moreover, barring two, all members of the Group of Ministers (GoM) constituted to take forward the process of bifurcation, hail from States which have water or boundary disputes with Andhra Pradesh. They are unlikely to understand the sensitivities involved in the division of India’s first linguistic State. :mrgreen:

According to Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president N. Chandrababu Naidu, it would have been fair had the actual stakeholders — warring political parties or even sections of the intelligentsia — been brought to the negotiating table and allowed to bargain before the bifurcation.

Indeed, the differences between the regions are vast and varied. The Telugu language, according to pro-division leaders, is not the glue that can bind the two regions. Telangana has been wronged, the economy exploited by Seemandhra capitalists, jobs have been taken away and resources plundered… So goes the argument of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in its 12-page submission to the GoM. It wants a “relocation” of non-locals recruited in the subordinate services in violation of the quotas fixed.

Status of Hyderabad

Several other thorny issues need to be sorted out, the most important being the status of Hyderabad, which the Centre has decided will remain a joint capital for 10 years before going to Telangana. Seemandhra leaders want Hyderabad to be a Union Territory and serve as a joint capital, but the TRS will have none of it. It wants Andhra Pradesh to build its own capital in two years.

The crux of the Telangana movement, as the TRS succinctly puts it, are: funds, water and jobs. It accepts some of the earlier awards of river water tribunals but wants the award of the Krishna Water Disputes Tribunal to be kept in abeyance. It is opposed to the multipurpose Polavaram project across the Godavari, the future lifeline of Andhra with spin-offs for Telangana too, till its concerns over submergence are addressed.

Mr. Reddy says common sense dictates that the State should remain united as these problems will become more intractable after division. It will harm both States as dams and reservoirs will be located in one State and irrigated areas in another.

The Centre has given its own prescription through the A.K. Antony Committee to address these concerns. It proposes a regulatory mechanism for water distribution, a special authority under the Governor to supervise law and order and urban development in Hyderabad, besides a bar on the Telangana government enacting laws revoking land allotment to institutions in the capital. :?:

Coming as they do before the general election, such assurances can do little to rein in Mr. Reddy. He needs more to redeem his image and avoid going down in history as the one who was at the helm when Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated. No wonder the Congress is looking for a pliable Seemandhra leader to serve as a stopgap Chief Minister if Mr. Reddy goes.

Poll calculations

The Congress party’s haste has only given a handle to the Bharatiya Janata Party, a votary of smaller States, and to Mr. Chandrababu Naidu, who supported Telangana, to shift their stand. Both are now pitching for equitable justice to all Telugu-speaking people before going ahead with the bifurcation, and the TDP boycotted the meeting with the GoM.

The BJP is nervous about facing a fate similar to that of the Congress in Seemandhra. Without its backing for the Telangana Bill, the UPA government may find it difficult to push the legislation through in Parliament. Things will become more complicated for the Congress if the TDP and the BJP join hands for the Lok Sabha election. Much of this mess could have been avoided had the GoM held consultations with political parties before, and not after, the decision to bifurcate. It is impossible to visualise the Centre heeding to the suggestions of the TDP, the YSR Congress and the CPI(M), the last two openly opposing the division.

Mr. Reddy has become a party spoiler for the Congress’s well-laid out plans of bargaining for Lok Sabha seats with the TRS and taking a shot at post-poll arrangements with the YSR Congress in Seemandhra, a region where there is a tectonic shift in the ruling party’s vote base.

The only alternative for the Congress is to remove him. This is not so easy. Mr. Reddy is in no mood to oblige by stepping down voluntarily. He may even precipitate a crisis by resigning on the floor of the Assembly when the Telangana Bill is introduced. In such a situation, the Congress cannot risk imposing President’s Rule as it would attract ridicule for dismissing its own government, and all-round censure, more so after the Supreme Court’s verdict in S.R. Bommai (1994).

The people of Telangana agonised for three-and-a-half years after the Centre went back on its bifurcation decision, leading to hundreds of suicides. The reversal of its decision has made the people of Seemandhra take to the streets as they see an uncertain future, and fear forcible migration of employees and perpetual water disputes.

[email protected]
Also read the other links at bottom of page in above news report.
devesh
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

the SA folks might not understand it, but T-blood always boils when they hear of expensive irrigation projects for Kosta, when there is no need for them. when there is already a good system to channel the naturally flowing KG waters across the length and breadth of the coastal areas, why do you need to invest more into the same, is the feeling. why not use some of that money into more irrigation for T, even if it is lift irrigation schemes?

similar anger does not arise when such projects go to Rayalaseema. there were news reports of YSR pumping money into Kadapa to provide better water services there, back when he was CM. it didn't draw any anger from T-vadis. TDP tried to make a big deal of it. but didn't find much traction even in the one section which would usually respond vociferously to such calls.
ramana
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Devesh, All those lift irrigation schemes for Telangana region were first planned under CBn and implemetation started under YSR. The magnitude of the projects can be understtod as they have three times the height and three times the volume of the US Arizona lift irrigation project.
When fully implemented they will turn Telangana plateau to a green table.

Some links:

http://irrigation.cgg.gov.in/

Godavari irrigation projects:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godavari_R ... n_Projects

Devudala Project:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devadula_l ... ion_scheme


Not yet started.
Pranhitta:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pranahita_ ... ion_scheme
vivek.rao
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/368 ... -modi.html

Dawood's aide Pawar asking all MAFIA to form an alliance to stop Modi
The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), a key constituent of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA),  has suggested forging a grand tie-up to counter Bharatiya Janata Party ‘s (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The NCP’s suggestion is seen as a virtual expression of no-confidence in the ability of the Congress to take on an upbeat BJP.

The NCP, a Congress ally of 14 years and led by Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, had also attended a recent 14-party convention organised by Left parties against communal forces.

The issue of a grand alliance may gather steam after the results of the elections to five assemblies are declared and if the Congress fares poorly, as predicted by numerous opinion polls and surveys.

Union minister and NCP co-founder Tariq Anwar said a grand alliance of secular parties was the need of the hour in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together send 120 members to the Lok Sabha.
ShyamSP
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ShyamSP »

ramana wrote:
Muppalla wrote:BJP should vote for Telangana :) along with INC next month, unless there is an assured exodus from Seemandhra's MPs, MLAs, panchayat presidents from INC, YSRC, TDP. That is how things should be negotiated otherwise BJP will always remain poor.

After the exodus, they can take a moral ground saying that we are for democracy and divide and rule. We will put a road map for bifurcation and an important component is pass the resolution for split in AP assembly. That way AP could suddenly become BJP state. :)

Err it will lose its newly acquired power.
It should make INC jump the stick.

AP has to be given an alternative.
By voting with INC, it would be back to square one and INC will regain its power eventually due to old tactics of power and pelf.
BJP puts a stick and asks what Congress is going to do before BJP provides any suggestions to bifurcation.

Funny thing is Congress gave two opinions to the government :rotfl:

http://epaper.eenadu.net/pdf/2013/11/13 ... 101008.jpg

http://www.gulte.com/news/22597/GoM-Mee ... s-Congress

http://www.gulte.com/news/22599/Congres ... ds-Exposed
...
it is known to people that still the Antony Commitee and Jairam Ramesh have not submitted any recommendations till date.
...
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

CM now called to Delhi tomorrow to meet the GOM 8PM. The draft bill will be before parliament by 21st and will be sent to state assembly. Seems Sonia birth day DEC9 IS THE TARGET.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

BJP needs to ensure this thing doesn't turn into a Sonia milestone. they have the numbers to stall till after Dec 9. the grotesque display of putting that alien lady as a "savior" of our people is nauseating to say the least. that is one thing BJP should not acquiesce to. Telangana or NO Telangana, I do not want this to turn into a Sonia-fest. I'm already resigned to the fact that INC will most likely sweep Telangana in 2014. putting Sonia on the pedestal is too hard to stomach.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ShyamSP »

Narayana Rao wrote:CM now called to Delhi tomorrow to meet the GOM 8PM. The draft bill will be before parliament by 21st and will be sent to state assembly. Seems Sonia birth day DEC9 IS THE TARGET.
Well technically AP Assembly can hang onto the bill a few months. If CM KKR is Samaikyavadi, he can delay the bill to miss Dec 9th.

All party turned out to be another useless meeting with even GOM is not telling what their views are. Ofcourse Congress may be doing dramas to show Home ministry and GOM are doing some exercises where as the bill on Toilet paper is already written way before.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ShyamSP »

devesh wrote:BJP needs to ensure this thing doesn't turn into a Sonia milestone. they have the numbers to stall till after Dec 9. the grotesque display of putting that alien lady as a "savior" of our people is nauseating to say the least. that is one thing BJP should not acquiesce to. Telangana or NO Telangana, I do not want this to turn into a Sonia-fest. I'm already resigned to the fact that INC will most likely sweep Telangana in 2014. putting Sonia on the pedestal is too hard to stomach.
[with apologies to Devesh, comments deleted. -shyamsp. Pic is kept to show grotesque display that Devesh is saying]

Image
Last edited by ShyamSP on 14 Nov 2013 01:15, edited 2 times in total.
devesh
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

ShyamSP wrote:
devesh wrote:BJP needs to ensure this thing doesn't turn into a Sonia milestone. they have the numbers to stall till after Dec 9. the grotesque display of putting that alien lady as a "savior" of our people is nauseating to say the least. that is one thing BJP should not acquiesce to. Telangana or NO Telangana, I do not want this to turn into a Sonia-fest. I'm already resigned to the fact that INC will most likely sweep Telangana in 2014. putting Sonia on the pedestal is too hard to stomach.
Your T wish is being granted. Did you visit her temple and pray for good wishes? :rotfl:

fortunately, I have not stooped that low. but fear not, ShyamSP, if that day comes, you'll simply have more ammo to go after the contemptible "interiors", anyway. so, it's kind of a win-win, isn't it ?!
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

the guy in purple shirt isn't tall enough, or I could be wrong. but perhaps somebody with 1-2 inches on that guy would be a more suitable likening to me.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

BJP already being coy with Telangana - say its support is conditional on the constitutional process being followed. Does this mean there have been more developments behind the scenes?

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp ... 346046.ece
Theo_Fidel

Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Theo_Fidel »

ramana wrote:When fully implemented they will turn Telangana plateau to a green table.
Very unlikely. To my mind it is only a waste of water and effort. We will never get the investment back. The soils and climate in these areas are not conducive to good agriculture. Some valley areas maybe but most table lands lack nutrients and organic soil matter. Without these two water will only promote erosion and salinity.

Some form of hydroponic maybe effective but the high elevation, read - low air pressure and CO2 availability will reduce productivity. Meaning another area can easily out compete.

The main problem will remain that these areas are in direct competition with the SeemAndhra coasts. SeemAndhra will always win the agricultural battle.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by syele »

It all depends upon the definition of Agriculture. If it is traditional definition of rice and sugar farming then Coastal Andhra wins. What if Telangana defines Agriculture differently?

http://apshm.ap.nic.in/Agri_Climatic_Zones.html#3
Theo_Fidel

Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Yes, that is what Kerala tried WRT TN. Kerala has found it impossible to pull off and is more dependent than ever, IIRC even coconuts are now imported as productivity in the TN lowlands is much higher. For that matter KA is dependent on delta rice despite all its dams and much effort to irrigate.

The question is one of productivity. For the same effort lowland/delta/coastal areas will produce 3-4 times what the highlands produce. Highland agriculture is a recipe for bankruptcy. You might temporarily escape by finding crops that do not grow well in lowlands, floriculture or citrus crops or olives, etc. But once the lowlands figure it out you will be under relentless pressure and pushed ever more towards the margins.

Telangana is trying to escape this coastal pressure but IMHO will only find itself completely dependent on Seemandhra agriculture. I anticipate a long line of trucks on the border shipping produce into Telangana.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

The Hindu article states clearly the stance/arguments of different groups
Indeed, the differences between the regions are vast and varied. The Telugu language, according to pro-division leaders, is not the glue that can bind the two regions. Telangana has been wronged, the economy exploited by Seemandhra capitalists, jobs have been taken away and resources plundered… So goes the argument of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in its 12-page submission to the GoM. It wants a “relocation” of non-locals recruited in the subordinate services in violation of the quotas fixed.

Status of Hyderabad

Several other thorny issues need to be sorted out, the most important being the status of Hyderabad, which the Centre has decided will remain a joint capital for 10 years before going to Telangana. Seemandhra leaders want Hyderabad to be a Union Territory and serve as a joint capital, but the TRS will have none of it. It wants Andhra Pradesh to build its own capital in two years.

The crux of the Telangana movement, as the TRS succinctly puts it, are: funds, water and jobs. It accepts some of the earlier awards of river water tribunals but wants the award of the Krishna Water Disputes Tribunal to be kept in abeyance. It is opposed to the multipurpose Polavaram project across the Godavari, the future lifeline of Andhra with spin-offs for Telangana too, till its concerns over submergence are addressed.

Mr. Reddy says common sense dictates that the State should remain united as these problems will become more intractable after division. It will harm both States as dams and reservoirs will be located in one State and irrigated areas in another.

The Centre has given its own prescription through the A.K. Antony Committee to address these concerns. It proposes a regulatory mechanism for water distribution, a special authority under the Governor to supervise law and order and urban development in Hyderabad, besides a bar on the Telangana government enacting laws revoking land allotment to institutions in the capital.
The green bolded part is why we modelled TRS as inflexible.

However it has little to no power to influence the outcome. The power or influence is with the Congress in Center not even with the state elements.
All sort of GOMs and Committees are being set-up to mask it as a people's choice.
If you go back in history the British also did similar powerless groups as vested interests to contain the main freedom movement. And the main freedom movement agreed for they didnt understand how dependent the British were on India for their Empire.

So TRS is a "buchi"/bogeyman being created to scare the Telugu speaking public into supporting the Congress in elections. Not happening as YSRCP and TDP and now BJP is finding support.

The difference is British were outsiders who could cut and run.

Congress can't do that. So Telugus have to do whats needed to make Congress irrelevant.
AP is the state that put Congress in powere decade after decade even in the dire tiems of the Emergency. Even in 2004 it was AP that gave teh Congress neumbers to form the UPA.
Yet AP does not know its power or influence.

TSRS the former Cabinet Secretary wrote about the other aspects of the AP's influence.


KKR now represents the non-TDP political interests just like Pawar's NCP with the difference that MIM is not part of his interests.

BJP could have made a play for this group bu they have an unsure State unit President who represents a part of the State where they are no even in any position of influence!
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

ramana wrote: BJP could have made a play for this group bu they have an unsure State unit President who represents a part of the State where they are no even in any position of influence!
Ramana-ji,
Kishan Reddy was, just a few days ago, fully in support of the hardcore elements in TRS. He is now veering round to `wait and watch', `support Telangana, but address SeemaAndhra concerns' mode. I suspect that this is precisely because of developments in the state Congress. I would not be surprised to see a part of the Congress migrating to the BJP in Andhra.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Vidya Sagar Rao of BJP now saying that they have obtained prior resolution during NDA rules not as a principle of obtaining prior consent etc for the division of states but because ruling party was congress in the states. But since congress is ruling here at both the places no prior resolution is needed.

Basically BJP central leaderhip is not actively exploring the posibility of messing mafia in AP and there by ensuring serious blow to its game plan. At least not in open. Hope Modi does something to teach a lesson for mafia queen.

LAND IS ASKED IN HYDERABAD TO BUILD SONIA TEMPLE. MOTHER OF TELANGANA. HAS A NICE RING.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vayutuvan »

Telangana should let go of the water (except for drinking) and spend the money, if reallocation is still possible, on K-10 and ITIs, or 11-12 and 2 year engineering technicians vocational courses+ and industrial development. This will fill the whole pipeline of employable people and their job prospects. Even if bi(tri)furcation does not happen this is the way to go as they would be well-off enough not to be beholden to kosta for rice and grains.

Unfortunately that is a long term project and none in the current political setup want to go that route due to their greed for power and pelf.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 14 Nov 2013 10:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

Narayana Rao wrote: LAND IS ASKED IN HYDERABAD TO BUILD SONIA TEMPLE. MOTHER OF TELANGANA. HAS A NICE RING.
Maybe it should be built in place of the Bhagyalakshmi temple in Hyderabad? A monument to the secularism practised by the MIM and the Congress?
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by shyamoo »

Theo_Fidel wrote: The question is one of productivity. For the same effort lowland/delta/coastal areas will produce 3-4 times what the highlands produce. Highland agriculture is a recipe for bankruptcy. You might temporarily escape by finding crops that do not grow well in lowlands, floriculture or citrus crops or olives, etc. But once the lowlands figure it out you will be under relentless pressure and pushed ever more towards the margins.
Theo saar, not necessarily true.

Rice production Scenario in AP
• Area: Area under rice mostly depends on the mansoon pattern and availability of water in reservoirs.
Area under rice was high during 2008-09 (43.87 l.ha) and lowest is in 2002-03 (28.22 l.ha).
There is no scope for increasing area under rice and rice area is replaced by some profitable dry crops due to in sufficient water. Rice is grown in 28% of gross cropped area and 50% of area under food crops round the year in all the districts. Though there is a rise and fall of area and production of rice based on water availability, but there is a constant increase in productivity. In the context of food security such decline in area and production is not good to meet the future rice requirement. In the coastal districts the area under rice is declining because of aquaculture activities.
{This would require utilizing the land in the Telangana region to compensate for growing need or lack of availability in costal regions }

• Production: Rice production depends up on the seasonal conditions prevailing during that particular year. Sofar highest production was realized (140.10 l.t) during 2008-09 and lowest (73.29 l.t) during
2002-03. In the basal production, contribution of superfine varieties is 62% followed by 25% of fine varieties and the rest from common varieties. It is expected that about 20 lakh tones of fine rice would be exported from the state. More rice is produced in East Godavari (17.01 l.t), West Godavari (16.71 l.t), Krishna (11.42 l.t), Karimnagar (10.87 l.t), Guntur (10.27 l.t) and lowest in Ranga Reddy (1.04).

• Productivity, Ecosystem wise : In A.P rice productivity is 3333 kg/ha compared to 2001 kg/ha (India) and 4112 kg/ha (world). Rice productivity is highest in Nellore district (4473kg/ha) followed by East Godavari (4028 kg/ha), West Godavari (3928 kg/ha) and lowest in Vishakhapatnam (2075 kg/ha). The crop is grown in three ecosystems viz., irrigated ecosystem (50.6%), rainfed low land (43.8%) and rainfed uplands (5.6%) . In A.P realized yields are above state average in 9 districts i.e., Nellore (4473 kg/ha), East Godavari (4028 kg/ha), West Godavari (3928 kg/ha), Prakasham (3779 kg/ha), Nizamabad (3629 kg/ha), Nalgonda (3555 kg/ha), Adilabad (3878 kg/ha), Guntur (3468 kg/ha), Khammam (3376 kg/ha) and in 13 districts yields are less than the state average and lowest in Vishakhapatnam district (2075 kg/ha).

• Yield gap and its reasons: Most of the varieties already released and recommended are capable of yielding 4.0 to 5.0 t/ha of rice under field conditions against the average yield of 3.43 t/ha being achieved by the state. Thus, there still exists an yield gap of 0.5 to 1.5 t/ha even with the available varieties and technologies.
To achieve the yield potential already created, farmers have to necessarily adopt recommended package in totality. Farmers are adopting the improved variety and a part of the package not giving adequate attention to the remaining component particularly the correction of soil problems, nutritional disorders and water management to some extent. Over 5000 litres of water is required to produce 1 kilogram of rice. Most if it is used for soil preparation and weed suppression. To make rice farming more profitable, water use efficiency has to be improved a lot in addition to other factors.

Though the yields are increasing over the years to varying degree they are not proportionate to the increase in production cost. The factor productivity which is on decline should improve. Therefore, the research and extension efforts will have to focus on the efficient use of inputs, reduction in the costs of production, minimizing input losses and maximize output through scientific crop production and protection technologies like Maintance of optimum population, water, soil test based integrated nutrient management, integrated pest management, in addition to sustainable soil management, harvest and post harvest management.

The state being one of the highest fertilizer and pesticides consuming regions in the country, the key factor leading to the difference in rice yields between A.P on one side and Punjab and Tamilnadu on the other is the proportionate share of groundwater irrigated area which is 62% in Punjab, 45% in Tamilnadu compared to 35% in A.P while Punjab and Tamilnadu developed 99% and 60% of their ultimate ground water potential respectively. A.P developed less than 20% of its ground water potential. Ground water development, thus, appears crucial for stepping up rice yields.

Another crucial factor in this regard is the extent of irrigated rice area in Andhra Pradesh. Although rice is said to be irrigated to an extent of 95% of the area planted in the state, 50% is under tanks, wells and tube wells which in turn depend on the rainfall and good mansoon. How dependable is this source is known to every one. Thus, only 50% of the rice area gets assured irrigation water through canals under major projects.

A third and major factor which is pulling down the rice yields in the state is damage due to frequent cyclones and floods which are common at the time of harvest. Biotic and abiotic stresses are the other factors greatly influencing the yield gaps apart from others.

Reference: http://www.rkmp.co.in/sites/default/fil ... desh_0.pdf
*********

The difference in Productivity is not that huge. Besides there is only so much land in the costal regions. Demand and Supply. Costal regions will be more productive but can only grow so much or certain types of crop at a given time. The productivity in Telangana region, in general, is better than the national average.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Theo, We grew up on long grain Warangal rice. My room mate from Kerala told us about getting the same in his state.
So what are you talking about?
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

devesh, Do you want ShyamSP to edit his post? ramana
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

nageshks wrote:BJP already being coy with Telangana - say its support is conditional on the constitutional process being followed. Does this mean there have been more developments behind the scenes?

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp ... 346046.ece
r. Dattatreya told reporters here that the Centre should address the apprehensions being raised by leaders and people of Seemandhra before proceeding with bifurcation of the State.

The BJP would spell its stand only after the government introduced the Bill in Parliament and the Congress gave clarity on major issues, including the status of Hyderabad.

“We want the Centre to introduce the Bill during the winter session and pass it. We are, however, opposed to any move to impose Central rule or Governor Rule. The BJP will play a key role in the reconstruction of both Telangana and Seemandhra States after the bifurcation,” he said. The party would organise programmes from November 20 to December 5 to highlight the role played by the party in the formation of the separate State.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... l-T-bill-/
Why is the BJP dragging cold feet on Telagnana issue ? The state BJP president G Kishan Reddy who participated in the all party meeting was all disappointed on the outcome.

'It is just a eye wash meeting' he said today contending that the GoM was not serious about Telangana process or even on addressing the grievances of the seemandhra Telugu's.
He says the GoM has no solution to the burning issue of Hyderabad and water problems raised by seemandra.
In fact the BJP is looking for an opportunity to stall the Telangana bill in parliament winter session as the party is not ready to face the wrath of seemandhra voters and more particularly it could jeopardize the BJP-TDP electoral alliance.

' Is the BJP once again in the Naidu trap ' asked a senior congress leader . Political analysts say that is the confidence and the strategy of TDP to drag the BJP away from Telangana bill as it is isolated in the entire process . Without BJP the bill can not be passed in parliament and the Congress high command is vary of the threats and rebel of CM Kiran KUmar Reddy and the refusal of TRS to merge with congress . 'If there is no advantage in Telagnana, why the hell should we pursue it and for whose sake ? quipped a GoM member , says a state politician.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Must be all Congress hacks blaming BJP for the delay in their announcing their own decisions!!!!

BTW what is the AP Herald stand? Looks like soft core site with all those actors and actresses!
Theo_Fidel

Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Vnm Sir,

Thanks for that detailed response with data.
It was very informative and interesting reading, but does not shake my understanding yet.

Every single one of the top districts are SeemAndhra. Keep in mind that the 4,000 kg per hectare number is world average. The ultimate sustainable (modern) yield for the SeemAndhra region is in the 10,000 kg per hectare yield. At some point in the near future SeemAndhra will inevitably double its yield from 3,000 kg/ hectare to 6,000 kg/hectare and then Triple to 9,000 kg/hectare. This is inevitable. Already TN lowland districts and Delta easily average 4,500-5,500 kg/hectare, on its way to the same 12,000 kg/hectare number.

How can Telangana keep up? I suggest to you it is not possible.

BTW Here is the full district wise list from department of agriculture.
http://drd.dacnet.nic.in/PA-Table-01-An ... radesh.htm

In terms of rice, at a middling top line performance of 9,000 tons per hectare, ~ 10 million acres of irrigated delta land in SeemAndhra will be producing 90 million tons of rice. This is enough to feed all of SI with capacity to spare. Just SeemAndhra mind you. Where is there space for marginal Table land agriculture? Approach it from another direction, there was a time in the 1960's & 1970's that these plateau areas in Telangana averaged less than 500 kg per hectare. Since then they have increased production to 2,000 kg/hectare. And still these areas are crushed by poverty and lack of prosperity compared to SeemAndhra agriculture. The market is sending us a clear financial signal that these areas are not financially viable WRT agriculture. On a one is to one comparison a farmer in Telangana will be poorer than the same farmer in SeemArdhra delta. Doesn't matter how much money Telangana squanders pumping water from here to there and there to here. Outcomes for the state will not change.

Your point on Cyclone damage is very much relevant. But would the same thing not matter WRT to drought in Telangana.

Do it if you must, but this is a purely political decision. Something Telangana will pay dearly for as it bankrupts itself trying to compete with Seem Andhra agriculture. And eventually withholding water from the delta as in the TN/KA dynamic.

Ramana,

Not sure what you are trying to say. Warangal is not 'Telangana Plateau' per your comment and is actually relatively well watered already, yet its yields are quite abysmal. The lift irrigation project was indeed for the Plateau regions that we are discussing. Mahbubnagar, Rangareddy, etc
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

ramana wrote:devesh, Do you want ShyamSP to edit his post? ramana
no need. it was more amusing than anything else.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by shyamoo »

Theo saar,

I think we are on the same page regarding the matter of productivty of Telangana vs costal regions.

Where we differ is the need for doing something about it. The fact that being less productive does not imply that we do not try and provide water to the areas that require water. You have to consider the future requirements. Costal regions will not be in a position to meet the demands for all types of crops at the same time. Farmers will switch to crops that will generate the maximum gains. In some years, aqua products will take precedence. So, where do we or how do we make up the shortfall in crops replaced by aqua farming?

The Telangana famers can concentrate on crops not grown by costal regions.

BTW, some of the districts in Telangana out-perform some districts in SeemaAndhra ( Gubntur, Prakasam etc. ) in terms of productivity.

Like you have mentioned, productivity in the plateau regions has increased since the 60s, but still poverty is rather high. This is again due to the fact that these regions pretty much depend on rains for source of water. 1 year of drought pegs them back by a few years. Once, they have assured access to water, lives will improve.

By not doing anything, we will be ensuring that the region will remain destitute.

Now, it is given that not all projects will be successful. But what option do we have? A poor farmer will will have to abandon his fields and move to the cities for a day-labor job. This isn't sustainable either.

There will be no competing with costal regions. The strategy should/will be to supplement/complement the output from costal regions.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

ramana wrote:Must be all Congress hacks blaming BJP for the delay in their announcing their own decisions!!!!

BTW what is the AP Herald stand? Looks like soft core site with all those actors and actresses!
Mostly gossip site I think. But BJP is playing the game.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

devesh wrote:
ramana wrote:devesh, Do you want ShyamSP to edit his post? ramana
no need. it was more amusing than anything else.

Thanks, it was reported and wanted your feedback.
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