AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 16 Nov 2013 02:53

On murders of Paritala Ravindra and other TDP activists by Samuel Reddy and his Son. Also raw footage of Ravindra's interview snippets predicting his death . Not sure if this was posted before. Warning : gruesome video with blood and bodies.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=18 ... =2&theater

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Nov 2013 02:58

RajeshA, The TOI article you posted confirms the Game of Chicken(GOC) thesis that I had suggested. Congress is acting on bluster. It should be allowed to go full speed ahead on the road.

Didnt that idiot Ram Gopala Varma make two movies in Hindi based on this?

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 16 Nov 2013 03:09

Ram’s statehood-rekha
- Telangana and Seemandhra stake claim to temple town

“How can you say Lord Rama is not a Telanganite? Legend and mythology say that he was in Dandakaranya along with brother Lakshman and wife Sita,” said state information minister D.K. Aruna, voicing popular Telangana sentiment.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131116/j ... oaa9kMvGYQ

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Nov 2013 03:34

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote: As one can see it should not be a problem for Congress to get its way in Rajya Sabha as well. I could have up to 124 votes in a house of 245, i.e. if one adds the nominated and the independent MPs.
The BJP should now go in for the kill and grab all the unhappy SeemaAndhra leaders that it can. And there are plenty of them unhappy. The vital thing is for the BJP to gain the credit for the stopping of the division of Andhra Pradesh.

nageshks ji,

that is what I too would prefer. It is in Seemandhra, where anti-Congressism is at its maximum, which can be tapped. It is in Seemandhra where politicians are looking for new homes/party. Telangana is where Congress has accumulated all its forces, thinking Telangana is BJP's move trying to preempt it, and thus they have left all of their hinterland in the hands of a Congress B Team, a weak satrap - Jagan, with just some media outlets as Congress forces in support, hoping he will be able to deal with TDP. But the whole Seemandhra is up for grabs.

So if Modi can cut off Congress's supply lines

in Telangana by defeating Telangana Bill in Parliament, LS or RS, but concentrate his attack in Seemandhra, he can win a lot of political real estate.

He should think like Chengiz Khan, a swift invasion through Eurasia (Seemandhra).

Modi may not have many powerful politicos from Seemandhra but he can get them as they are all homeless and he has a big tent, huge popularity with a good shot at forming the next government.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Nov 2013 03:54

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote: As one can see it should not be a problem for Congress to get its way in Rajya Sabha as well. I could have up to 124 votes in a house of 245, i.e. if one adds the nominated and the independent MPs.
The BJP should now go in for the kill and grab all the unhappy SeemaAndhra leaders that it can. And there are plenty of them unhappy. The vital thing is for the BJP to gain the credit for the stopping of the division of Andhra Pradesh.

If BJP does not vote in RS, it is very difficult to get it passed. I and still not convinced that BJP will vote against this bill. The numbers won't stack up. If the bill falls due to BJP that will change the politics of AP. I am really not at all convinced that BJP will do that.

The TOI article and other noise is just like prelude to food security bill. All the way telling that they will not vote but in the end they voted along with INC.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 16 Nov 2013 03:59

Sushupti wrote:Ram’s statehood-rekha - Telangana and Seemandhra stake claim to temple town

“How can you say Lord Rama is not a Telanganite? Legend and mythology say that he was in Dandakaranya along with brother Lakshman and wife Sita,” said state information minister D.K. Aruna, voicing popular Telangana sentiment.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131116/j ... oaa9kMvGYQ

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Nov 2013 04:15

ramana wrote:RajeshA, The TOI article you posted confirms the Game of Chicken(GOC) thesis that I had suggested. Congress is acting on bluster. It should be allowed to go full speed ahead on the road.

Didnt that idiot Ram Gopala Varma make two movies in Hindi based on this?

That is why I think people like G. Kishan Reddy, Sushma Swaraj, etc. are all being used to give Congress a long rope to hang themselves with. BJP has succeeded in luring Congress into a trap in Telangana. Now the trap has to be shut, ensuring that Congress can neither survive on the meat inside the trap, nor hunt for any meat in rest of its favorite hunting grounds - Andhra Pradesh.

In 2009, AP gave Congress 33 seats. Cutting down Congress to 2 to 5 seats in whole of AP is essential for a Congress Mukt Bharat.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 16 Nov 2013 09:22

RajeshA wrote: nageshks ji,

that is what I too would prefer. It is in Seemandhra, where anti-Congressism is at its maximum, which can be tapped. It is in Seemandhra where politicians are looking for new homes/party. Telangana is where Congress has accumulated all its forces, thinking Telangana is BJP's move trying to preempt it, and thus they have left all of their hinterland in the hands of a Congress B Team, a weak satrap - Jagan, with just some media outlets as Congress forces in support, hoping he will be able to deal with TDP. But the whole Seemandhra is up for grabs.

So if Modi can cut off Congress's supply lines in Telangana by defeating Telangana Bill in Parliament, LS or RS, but concentrate his attack in Seemandhra, he can win a lot of political real estate.

He should think like Chengiz Khan, a swift invasion through Eurasia (Seemandhra).

Modi may not have many powerful politicos from Seemandhra but he can get them as they are all homeless and he has a big tent, huge popularity with a good shot at forming the next government.

This is a perfect simile, RajeshA-ji. The thing is - whether by accident or by design, it is the Congress that is trapped with the Telangana issue. And the anti-Congress fury is raging in SeemaAndhra. If Modi is seen as the saviour of united Andhra Pradesh, while the two bit single digit parties failed, the BJP will attract a lot of defectors not only from the Congress, but also quite possibly from YSR Congress and possibly even TDP (after all, why hang on to a group that has no way of protecting your interests, if there is a new startup that is capable of advancing your interests even more?). In one stroke, if the BJP can pull off this coup, they will have turned the politics of SeemaAndhra topsy turvy. Not only in the Lok Sabha, but even in Rajya Sabha, are there very powerful Congressmen from SeemaAndhra, who are very worried about what lies in store for them in their own state. These can well be induced to defect to BJP. And as a bonus, if the BJP establishes itself as a pro-business party of significance in Andhra, it can well lead the Hindu resurgence in the region.

Secondly, by leaving open such a huge gap in their own defences, the Congress has committed itself into a very dangerous attack, that may not be backed up by enough resources to see it through. If the BJP counter attack in SeemaAndhra cannot be contained, the Congress is staring at a total dissolution of its own position. Also, if the Congress suffers such a disastrous defeat on the Telangana Bill, the government might itself well collapse. So, I am very sure that the Congress will not bring in the Bill for voting, unless it is certain that it has the numbers to see it through.

Everything depends on the Assembly elections. If the BJP wins 4-0, then the Congress will be finished. The defections will increase (definitely in Andhra), and the murmurs of discontent now, will become hoarse screams. Of course, no one will still blame the Mafia Queen, but some heads will definitely roll (Diggy is the next scapegoat?) Consequently, it is vital for the BJP to win all four states.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Nov 2013 09:42

They wish to complete the process before results of 4 states. Dec 9 mother of Telangana birthday. So statehood ob that date. Mafia queen will have history made and Temples built for her.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Nov 2013 13:52

Narayana Rao wrote:They wish to complete the process before results of 4 states. Dec 9 mother of Telangana birthday. So statehood ob that date. Mafia queen will have history made and Temples built for her.

December 5 is Thursday. One can be sure that Seemandhra MPs would not allow much business on the first two days. Then comes the weekend for counting votes for the state assembly elections. December 8, the results would be announced.

After that the political scene would be dealing with the political earthquakes, and all bets would be off.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 16 Nov 2013 14:22

Narayana Rao wrote:They wish to complete the process before results of 4 states. Dec 9 mother of Telangana birthday. So statehood ob that date. Mafia queen will have history made and Temples built for her.

If people remember, the out of the blue 2009 Dec 9 th press conference by the then home minister Chidu announcing "high command" go ahead for AP division - was also timed with Sonia's Birthday.
Then too there were some articles pushed by dilli Billi papers praising Sonia Mata who in her one fitful moment of infinite mercifulness coinciding with her birthday suddenly granted Telangana "boon" to the distraught people of Andhra Pradesh .

Also "great leader" KCRs "fast to death" the beginning of which again "coincidentally" fell just 11 days before Sonia Mata's birthday on Dec 9 ended with Telangana announcement by Chidu on Dec 9 2009.

And here people are seeing dreams of TRS allying with BJP - Congis by design breathed a life into a dead movement on dec 9 2009 by making the T declaration .So TRS is as firmly a congi B team as Jagan and YSRCP.

Alternative is a merger of Tdp and Bjp on a firmly anti congress plank in this election . Not one T word need not be uttered in Seemandhra campaigning if existence of Congress and its b-teams is itself made the issue for the election.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 16 Nov 2013 15:57

Just repeating that BJP could learn from experience and settle issue amicably- just a suggestion. Taking sides etc. is no good though BJP should explain this to potential partners and convince this. Former con race people sniffing out such plans is an issue here? The Dandakaran forest is not an issue at all no? BJP could say that BJP can lose a few seats here and there for an amicable solution and avoid new issues rising altogether. Con race playing this for decades is enough already.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Nov 2013 18:00

BJP has no one from non Telangana areas to speak at state level meetings etc. So no way it will go for amicable settlement. Even internally they could not agree what to do about Bharachalam merger with Godavari Dist proposal. There is no Chanikyan ideas behind their support for division of AP. They think they can get benifit in T areas and that is all. Rest of AP is not in the scheme of the things for the party as of now. They will support mafia fully in the division of AP.

Bhadrachalam is the new flash point created by Jairam Ramesh Proposal to add it to Godavari Dist from where it was removed and added to Khammam after 1956. Since TRS and others want T as per 1956 naturally they now can not claim logically but who cares for logic here. Polavaram will result to surmersion of huge tracks of Bhadrachalam areas and therefore TRS is opposing Polavaram. Now to remove the scope for objection they have propose to remove the entire areas from T state. No fresh fights on Bhadrachalam area.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Nov 2013 00:24

Article 371(D) a sticking point: Law Ministry

In a significant development that could have implications for the process of division of the State, officials of the Law Ministry reportedly told the Group of Ministers (GoM) that an amendment to Article 371 (D) of the Constitution was necessary as part of bifurcation.

Ministry officials told the GoM during their five-hour-long meeting here on Thursday night that an amendment was needed to Article 371 D which lays down special provisions for giving equal opportunities in education and employment. This suggestion has political implications in that passage of the Constitution Amendment Bill needs two-thirds majority in Parliament which is possible only with the BJP’s support.

The GoM decided to seek the advice of Attorney General Goolam Vahanvati on Friday before proceeding further with the Bill. The Ministers enquired whether a single Bill on bifurcation was enough to complete the process or a separate Bill was required to bring the amendment.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Nov 2013 00:32

^^ Goolan Vashnavi is CORRUPT MAFIA crook and his son-in-law was involved in 2G scam money laundering. So he will do whatever to help the MAFIA.

Man! What a tragedy for this country! The MAFIA penetrated and destroyed every branch of the Govt.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Nov 2013 04:00

Okay if we were looking for disruption of Winter Session when Congress intends to introduce Telangana Bill, then this is one place one could expect it coming from.

DMK will brrack Salman

The UPA government should keep its fingers crossed about running a smooth winter session of Parliament. The Tamil parties are all set to disrupt proceedings over Salman Khurshid's participation in the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Colombo. The DMK has decided to barrack the External Affairs Minister every time he gets up to speak, either in the Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha. For the first time, all political parties in Tamil Nadu except the Congress passed a resolution in the state Assembly against India's participation in the Colombo CHOGM. Congress walked out. This is also being seen as the end of the Congress-DMK alliance.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Nov 2013 04:55

Salman need not attend the house in the first place. Mafia needs division so it will ensure that is at least tried. Next problem is the clarification on the status of Hyd and Bhadrachalam, It seems FM officials want clarity on these two for division of loans and assets. This seems to be an issue.

But as godhead is pending on mafia queen, we need not be surprised if a seriously half done division takes place by DEC 9TH. Site for is already sought for.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Nov 2013 05:16

Pranab ‘may not sign’ Telangana Bill

President Pranab Mukherjee is said to have assured Andhra Pradesh leaders that he will not sign the bill creating Telangana if it comes to him without being passed by the state Assembly. Mukherjee, who was the chairman of the Group of Ministers on Telangana before becoming President, had refused to take any decision on the matter as he was opposed to the bifurcation of the state. The President has also indicated to his close associates that after the next elections, he would ask the party or pre poll alliance that gets the maximum number of seats to form government, be it the UPA or NDA.

This is buzzword and to me a speculation as I lost belief in everything. If this happens then the story will change forever. BJP can remove this Telangana stuff even from their manifesto. There is no chance forever that this bifurcation getting passed in AP assembly. I just can't imagine such a thing.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Nov 2013 05:20

M, Calm down and post coherently.

Thanks,
ramana

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Nov 2013 08:13

United fellows have lot of hopes on Pranab, who did not like division of AP from the start because it may lead to Gurkhaland in WB. So There is nothing new. I am surprised with the speed in which Bharat Ratna was given to Sachin (reportedly Pranab cleared the proposal in 30 minutes) and also his son needs a congress ticket in WB. So he may be accomidating to mafia.

Critical is the assembly opinion and if it is negative then mafia will find even pranab is not willing. He had earlier warned mafia queen on this.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Nov 2013 12:01

I am seeing tv now.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 17 Nov 2013 15:02

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/kiran-on-collision-course-with-aicc-over-division/article5359898.ece

Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy gave clear indications on Saturday that he was heading on a collision course with the Congress party’s Central leadership as he intensified his attack against its decision to divide the State.

Amid speculation that the Congress high command may ask him to fall in line or resign during his meeting with the Group of Ministers in Delhi on November 18, Mr. Reddy chose Rachabanda, the mass contact programme at Chillakallu (Krishna district) and Rajahmundry, as the platform to launch yet another vitriolic attack on the high command.

The tone and tenor of his speeches clearly showed that he was bracing for a showdown on November 18 by sticking to his oft-repeated stand in support of a united AP. “If the Centre is firm, we will not hesitate to take our own decisions.”

In his hard hitting speeches, the Chief Minister made known his displeasure against the division saying that he was trying his best to keep the State united. “I will continue my fight and I need your support,” he appealed to the people in Rajahmundry.

Party leaders, who accompanied the Chief Minister, said they got the impression that Mr. Reddy intended to take on the leadership regardless of consequences.

“If he remains unrelenting, the high command may put its foot down and ask him to step down,” a senior leader told The Hindu .

If the Centre is firm, we will not hesitate to take our own decisions, says Chief Minister

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 17 Nov 2013 16:11

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/centre-plans-a-bounty-for-seemandhra/article5360469.ece

GoM believed to have zeroed in on several infra projects for inclusion in draft Bill
The Group of Ministers (GoM) looking into the bifurcation of the State is trying hard for creation of visible assets in residuary Andhra Pradesh so that they help assuage the feelings of people of the Seemandhra region.

During its wide ranging consultations with the Secretaries of various Ministries, the GoM is believed to have zeroed in on several infrastructure projects for inclusion in the draft State Reorganisation Bill so that Seemandhra region does not feel let down after bifurcation.

One such visible project is to build an express highway and introduce a high speed train between Hyderabad and the new capital city and make them operational in the shortest possible time.

The idea is to see that there is considerable traffic movement between the two States, apart from the broader objective of satisfying the Seemandhra people who may not come to grips with the loss of Hyderabad as their capital. Also under consideration is identifying towns and cities in Seemandhra that will have a network of express highways. Railway zone

Sources said the Centre could consider sanctioning a separate railway zone for Andhra Pradesh once South Central Railway goes to Telangana.

Technically, Guntur, Vijayawada and Guntakal division fall in SCR limits while Waltair division is part of East Coast Railway. A new zone may be created by merging Guntur, Vijayawada, Guntakal and Waltair divisions. The GoM is also examining a proposal to lay a new railway line from Srikakulam to Nellore.

Earlier report on Kiran kumar Reddy

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/its-congress-vs-congress-on-telangana/article5339901.ece?ref=relatedNews

With Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy opposing the Congress Working Committee’s decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh, the party is looking at various options to rein him in.
Bucking the trend of Congress leaders unquestioningly falling in line with the high command’s diktat, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy has launched a one-man rebellion over Telangana, which seasoned party managers are struggling to quell before it gets out of hand.
Hailing from a Congress family, Mr. Reddy is not a rebel by nature. He became one after the muddle created by the Congress Working Committee’s (CWC) ill-timed decision on July 30, eight months before the general election, to divide Andhra Pradesh and create a new State of Telangana.

Party leaders are buffeted between Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s insistence on implementing the CWC resolution and Mr. Reddy’s equally adamant stand opposing bifurcation. But, as they have to please the party supremo before tackling Mr. Reddy, Ministers and bureaucrats are working overtime, preparing voluminous reports on how to partition Andhra Pradesh, and the life thereafter.

Understanding sensitivities

The Congress is in such haste that it finds itself out of step with the government. For instance, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Digvijaya Singh promised that the bifurcation issue would be referred to the Assembly twice, while Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde held that only the Telangana Bill, not the resolution favouring bifurcation, would be discussed in the State legislature.

The problem arises not with the galloping pace at which reports are being prepared, or the party-government disconnect, but from apprehensions that established procedures and conventions are being short-circuited or bypassed, and a new State is being created on the basis of a poorly negotiated settlement.

The essence of Article 3 of the Constitution dealing with the reorganisation of States is federalism. The Centre has given short shrift to this concept by brushing aside the reservations of the Chief Minister, the Leader of the Opposition and the Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president. Moreover, barring two, all members of the Group of Ministers (GoM) constituted to take forward the process of bifurcation, hail from States which have water or boundary disputes with Andhra Pradesh. They are unlikely to understand the sensitivities involved in the division of India’s first linguistic State.
According to Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president N. Chandrababu Naidu, it would have been fair had the actual stakeholders — warring political parties or even sections of the intelligentsia — been brought to the negotiating table and allowed to bargain before the bifurcation.

Indeed, the differences between the regions are vast and varied. The Telugu language, according to pro-division leaders, is not the glue that can bind the two regions. Telangana has been wronged, the economy exploited by Seemandhra capitalists, jobs have been taken away and resources plundered… So goes the argument of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in its 12-page submission to the GoM. It wants a “relocation” of non-locals recruited in the subordinate services in violation of the quotas fixed.
Status of Hyderabad

Several other thorny issues need to be sorted out, the most important being the status of Hyderabad, which the Centre has decided will remain a joint capital for 10 years before going to Telangana. Seemandhra leaders want Hyderabad to be a Union Territory and serve as a joint capital, but the TRS will have none of it. It wants Andhra Pradesh to build its own capital in two years.

The crux of the Telangana movement, as the TRS succinctly puts it, are: funds, water and jobs. It accepts some of the earlier awards of river water tribunals but wants the award of the Krishna Water Disputes Tribunal to be kept in abeyance. It is opposed to the multipurpose Polavaram project across the Godavari, the future lifeline of Andhra with spin-offs for Telangana too, till its concerns over submergence are addressed.
Mr. Reddy says common sense dictates that the State should remain united as these problems will become more intractable after division. It will harm both States as dams and reservoirs will be located in one State and irrigated areas in another.

The Centre has given its own prescription through the A.K. Antony Committee to address these concerns. It proposes a regulatory mechanism for water distribution, a special authority under the Governor to supervise law and order and urban development in Hyderabad, besides a bar on the Telangana government enacting laws revoking land allotment to institutions in the capital.

Coming as they do before the general election, such assurances can do little to rein in Mr. Reddy. He needs more to redeem his image and avoid going down in history as the one who was at the helm when Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated. No wonder the Congress is looking for a pliable Seemandhra leader to serve as a stopgap Chief Minister if Mr. Reddy goes.

Poll calculations

The Congress party’s haste has only given a handle to the Bharatiya Janata Party, a votary of smaller States, and to Mr. Chandrababu Naidu, who supported Telangana, to shift their stand. Both are now pitching for equitable justice to all Telugu-speaking people before going ahead with the bifurcation, and the TDP boycotted the meeting with the GoM.

The BJP is nervous about facing a fate similar to that of the Congress in Seemandhra. Without its backing for the Telangana Bill, the UPA government may find it difficult to push the legislation through in Parliament. Things will become more complicated for the Congress if the TDP and the BJP join hands for the Lok Sabha election. Much of this mess could have been avoided had the GoM held consultations with political parties before, and not after, the decision to bifurcate. It is impossible to visualise the Centre heeding to the suggestions of the TDP, the YSR Congress and the CPI(M), the last two openly opposing the division.

Mr. Reddy has become a party spoiler for the Congress’s well-laid out plans of bargaining for Lok Sabha seats with the TRS and taking a shot at post-poll arrangements with the YSR Congress in Seemandhra, a region where there is a tectonic shift in the ruling party’s vote base.

The only alternative for the Congress is to remove him. This is not so easy. Mr. Reddy is in no mood to oblige by stepping down voluntarily. He may even precipitate a crisis by resigning on the floor of the Assembly when the Telangana Bill is introduced. In such a situation, the Congress cannot risk imposing President’s Rule as it would attract ridicule for dismissing its own government, and all-round censure, more so after the Supreme Court’s verdict in S.R. Bommai (1994).

The people of Telangana agonised for three-and-a-half years after the Centre went back on its bifurcation decision, leading to hundreds of suicides. The reversal of its decision has made the people of Seemandhra take to the streets as they see an uncertain future, and fear forcible migration of employees and perpetual water disputes.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Nov 2013 16:12

Mafia is contacting SC/ST MLAs of congress party and other loyal MLAs from Costal and Rayalaseema and puting presure on them. One IAS officer close to Rahul is now deputed for this purpose. In AP many SC/ST MLAs will be RC and EJ people. So they may be forced to vote as mafia says. Many of the mafia MLAs are loyal, self seeking stupid and blind people. They will vote as their queen says. So every effort is being made to win the support of the Assembly.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 17 Nov 2013 16:17

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/trs-cries-foul-over-kirans-telangana-halt-talk/article5355959.ece

Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has faulted Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy’s statement that he would make every effort till the last to halt Telangana by preventing bifurcation of the State.

“If he is so committed to the cause of ‘Samaikyandhra’ (keeping the State united), let him quit as the Chief Minister and speak whatever he likes. He can’t speak against the decades-old aspirations of one region’s people by leading a united entity,” TRS MLA K.T. Rama Rao said here on Friday.

Self-esteem matters

Mr. Rao sought to know why the Chief Minister was not able to admit that Telangana people’s demand for self-rule was part of their self-respect, when the separation of Andhra from Madras State was for self-esteem. “In spite of claiming himself to be sportsperson, he (Mr. Kiran Reddy) has never shown that sportsman spirit,” he remarked.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 17 Nov 2013 18:02

Referring to post by svenkat ji, it is strange how local con race committee is mentioned but con race isn't able to form clear political opinion and include political parties in it. There are many issues here and rushing in for electoral gains is not too democratic now, is it? Local MLAs supporting Mafia shows how movements in various garbs are for power play only. Also laws like 371D is for smooth operations of democratic system in first place and such a situation demonstrate that if problems arise because of laws then laws should be corrected instead of holding problems.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Nov 2013 18:14

Guys - this survey, conducted in September-October 2013 predicts that the YSR Congress is going to win 13 seats, while the TDP can win only 8 seats in Andhra. (The survey is by IndiaTV by the way).

http://browse.feedreader.com/c/India_e_Info/694707012

Is the YSR Congress already more powerful than the TDP? And if the INC vote base collapses, can it be expected to become even more powerful than the TDP, to the extent of the TDP faces a washout?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Nov 2013 18:19

Here is a video from aplatestnews.com, that claims that 5 Congress MPs are in negotiations with the BJP to join it. Can anyone guess who the five MPs might be?

http://www.aplatestnews.com/usnewsvideo ... rc=otvfeed

PS: My Telugu is passable, but not great. I got the impression that the BJP is hedging its bets, demanding justice for SeemaAndhra and making a move to grab the Congress MPs. If I have missed anything, please feel free to correct me.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Nov 2013 19:29

nageshks wrote:Here is a video from aplatestnews.com, that claims that 5 Congress MPs are in negotiations with the BJP to join it. Can anyone guess who the five MPs might be?

http://www.aplatestnews.com/usnewsvideo ... rc=otvfeed

PS: My Telugu is passable, but not great. I got the impression that the BJP is hedging its bets, demanding justice for SeemaAndhra and making a move to grab the Congress MPs. If I have missed anything, please feel free to correct me.

If five joins then there will be several. The video does not have any names. The folks that has business establishments and a very large asset values will be joining BJP because they can win on their own but needs a central theme.

Here is my thoughts regarding the process that is going on (connecting the dots). The SA politicians and the moneybags have come around differently to counter bifurcation:

(1) Ensured the systemic collapse of congress system in SA region. There is no congress anymore and don't have any illusions. The SC, Christian etc. are firmly with Jagan
(2) Since the visit of Modi, the elite/moneyed politicians and industrial/film honchos are having negotiations with BJP to bring a thaw in BJP's Telangana only policy. It is possible that BJP may vote against it
(3) Using their clout in law ministry, judges in general, the article 370D stuff got into limelight
(4) Used their past clout with PranabDa and his ideas/vision to impress upon him to stop the bill
(5) Now as the congress boat has completely collapsed and these folks also see that a central congress is heading for a rout, they will start putting a tilak on the forehead instead of occasional white caps and iftars.

Just like IPL/NFL open season and bidding, the AP congress MPs will be bagged by Jagan/BJP/TDP. Depending on their interests they will be in one of those parties.

BJP can reign in their T-folks because they know there is no win even there and as they are starting from zero there is nothing to lose. TDP, Jagan, Kiran will all look for a new central hangout as congress expires.

Congress and TRS are now boxed into Telangana. They will try to get the bill passed at any cost. They will have their powers in judiciary and other folks. Most of the desertions will happen after the elections are declared.

But this is the first challenge to powerful dilli billi and I am hence pessimistic.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Nov 2013 19:37

Today Jagan had a 90 minite meeting with Rajnath Singh at Delhi on united AP. I hope some serious effort is made by BJP to teach mafia a lesson in AP drama. I am not sure local BJP leadership is serious on this. May be national level? I do not know. After the attacks on Modi today there is very little posibility of BJP and mafia on the same page on anything. But with D4 you can never be sure.

As I have posted earlier Art 371(d) fate is a gray area and any modification needs 2/3 majority in parliament and consent of 50% of states. It is not possible for mafia to achive before December 9 deadline. Most possibilly they get a opinon from AG and proceed further.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Nov 2013 19:51

Muppalla wrote:Congress and TRS are now boxed into Telangana. They will try to get the bill passed at any cost. They will have their powers in judiciary and other folks. Most of the desertions will happen after the elections are declared.

TRS was always boxed into Telangana. It is the Congress which feels like USA in Afghanistan or a Gorilla with his fist stuck in a jar not able to let go of the prize.

TRS really has nothing to lose. If Congress cannot deliver Telangana, then they can't show their faces in Telangana. Their impotency is for all to see, lots of chest thumping but no strength. BJP can always say that Congress was not serious about giving Telangana. If it were, they would have started the legislative process much earlier and not 5 to 12, starting building the new capital for Seemandhra much earlier, etc.

The winner would be TRS if Telangana does not go through.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Nov 2013 20:26

Muppalla wrote: If five joins then there will be several. The video does not have any names. The folks that has business establishments and a very large asset values will be joining BJP because they can win on their own but needs a central theme.

Agreed, Muppalla-ji. But if you had to take a stab at guessing the names of the five negotiating with the BJP, whom would you name?

Also, it just says MPs. It does not say Lok Sabha MPs. Do you think that Rajya Sabha MPs might also be willing to jump ship (particularly those who are scheduled to retire next year?) There are five Rajya Sabha MPs from the Congress retiring next year, viz, T Ratna Bai, Mohd. Ali Khan, K V P Ramachandra Rao, Yellaiah Nandi, and T Subbarami Reddy. Do you think any of these might be willing to jump to the BJP? To be honest, I would really like for Subbarami Reddy to be in BJP.

(1) Ensured the systemic collapse of congress system in SA region. There is no congress anymore and don't have any illusions. The SC, Christian etc. are firmly with Jagan
(2) Since the visit of Modi, the elite/moneyed politicians and industrial/film honchos are having negotiations with BJP to bring a thaw in BJP's Telangana only policy. It is possible that BJP may vote against it
(3) Using their clout in law ministry, judges in general, the article 370D stuff got into limelight
(4) Used their past clout with PranabDa and his ideas/vision to impress upon him to stop the bill
(5) Now as the congress boat has completely collapsed and these folks also see that a central congress is heading for a rout, they will start putting a tilak on the forehead instead of occasional white caps and iftars.

Perfect. Where does this leave the BJP and TDP, in terms of respective strengths? And if these jump to the BJP, what would be the final political effect at the state level? After all, these people will want power in their party's hands, not only in the centre, but also in the state. So - assuming that there are some serious defections to the BJP, would you advocate an alliance with the TDP?

Just like IPL/NFL open season and bidding, the AP congress MPs will be bagged by Jagan/BJP/TDP. Depending on their interests they will be in one of those parties.

BJP can reign in their T-folks because they know there is no win even there and as they are starting from zero there is nothing to lose. TDP, Jagan, Kiran will all look for a new central hangout as congress expires.

Congress and TRS are now boxed into Telangana. They will try to get the bill passed at any cost. They will have their powers in judiciary and other folks. Most of the desertions will happen after the elections are declared.

But this is the first challenge to powerful dilli billi and I am hence pessimistic.

The Dilli Billi power is vastly overrated, Muppalla-ji. They reigned by default, because there was no challenge from the ground level, uniting the cadre. But with Modi's arrival, you will see the DBs quietly aligning with Modi to protect as many of their interests as possible.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 17 Nov 2013 21:57

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/conventions-peoples-concerns-thrown-to-the-winds-kiran/article5273784.ece?ref=relatedNews

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/kiran-prepared-to-step-down-to-keep-ap-united/article5355953.ece?ref=relatedNews

Upping the ante further against bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy said he was even prepared to step down if this helped in keeping the State united.

Significantly, he also stated that he would continue his fight against division by remaining in the Congress and indicated that he no effort would be spared to stall the effort of the UPA government and the Congress to bifurcate the State.

Mr. Kiran Kumar Reddy was addressing separate meetings at Chodavaram in Visakhapatnam district and Poduru in West Godavari organised in connection with Rachabanda, mass contact programme. Reiterating his commitment to a united Andhra Pradesh, he said that he would echo the sentiments of the people when he met the Group of Ministers in New Delhi on November 18.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Nov 2013 23:10

nageshks wrote:Agreed, Muppalla-ji. But if you had to take a stab at guessing the names of the five negotiating with the BJP, whom would you name?

Also, it just says MPs. It does not say Lok Sabha MPs. Do you think that Rajya Sabha MPs might also be willing to jump ship (particularly those who are scheduled to retire next year?) There are five Rajya Sabha MPs from the Congress retiring next year, viz, T Ratna Bai, Mohd. Ali Khan, K V P Ramachandra Rao, Yellaiah Nandi, and T Subbarami Reddy. Do you think any of these might be willing to jump to the BJP? To be honest, I would really like for Subbarami Reddy to be in BJP.

RS ones these days are pure money purses. They are the first to jump the ship.

Subbirami Reddy is a definite candidate for BJP. Go back on history. He recently lost a by-poll to Jagan's candidate from Nellore LS. But that is a mute point. As long ago as 90s when every two years we used to have Parl elections after 13 day ABV government, he formed a young/biz lobby group of MPs inside congress which wanted to cutoff from INC and form an alliance with BJP in the name of governance and what not. These are all types of folks who flock around the interests and not parties.

Regarding other five,
Everyone who is not a dalit/Christian/Muslim/Tribal from the SA side is up for grabs. However, the person will make few local calculations. If Jagan is too big in his local constituency that person will not join BJP. My hunch is folks from Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam, Godavari districts, Krishna are all up for grabs. Guntur and Prakasam districts are ideologically(the congress dynasties are from independence times) against BJP and it takes some time to get them in. Rayalaseema is also up for grabs. If TDP is strong then I don't see that particular ones will join BJP. Chiranjeevi and his ilk may join BJP. Here is my list: Purandareshwari (NTR's daughter), Pallam Raju, Lagadapati, Rayapati, Subbirami Reddi are good candidates. If BJP really shops in this open season they will get more. They got to do it boldly and aggressively. There are certain kammas who don't like CBN and hence are in either with Jagan or congress who are all possible entries.

nageshks wrote: Perfect. Where does this leave the BJP and TDP, in terms of respective strengths? And if these jump to the BJP, what would be the final political effect at the state level? After all, these people will want power in their party's hands, not only in the centre, but also in the state. So - assuming that there are some serious defections to the BJP, would you advocate an alliance with the TDP?

What we think/write this week may not be same last week or next week. What BJP is negotiating regarding AP is a Indira-MGR type deal. More LS seats to BJP and yield Assembly seats to negotiator. Here there are four parties. TDP, Jagan, KKR and TRS. My hunch (again this is wishful thinking as I am very pessimistic these days) is KKR's party will merge with BJP on election day if Sonia persists on let me get boxed into Telangana only. Jagan or TDP will go with BJP based on BJP's agenda of grab more of LS and yield more on Assembly. After all the last over tensions, BJP+TDP will probably go together unless CBN completely loses his mind. But important point to note is Jagan is also in the bargain. KKR will join as negotiator later if all communication with Sonia and central congress breakdown. He will not have the strength to negotiate and his ilk will just merge into one of the three(TDP, BJP, Jagan)

summary - anything is possible. The first thaws we are seeing are (1) T-BJP is also taking about Seemandhra (2) Pranabda giving some clues (3) murmurs of BJP voting against T bill (4) murmurs of moneybags aligning with BJP in SA and threatening to close the inc shop. BJP has options now suddenly.

nageshks wrote:
The Dilli Billi power is vastly overrated, Muppalla-ji. They reigned by default, because there was no challenge from the ground level, uniting the cadre. But with Modi's arrival, you will see the DBs quietly aligning with Modi to protect as many of their interests as possible.

I reserve my judgment as I haven't seen it yet. In AP the capitalist interest are for the first time are on a move and we have to watch and see the finality. It depends upon who has good clout. Congress is still the longest ruling one and they have advantage. If they see an armegeddon coming, they may roll back T-state and resolve to the fate of fighting for another day. The dilli-billi is beyond congress party and they don't want an aremegeddon happening and they may save to fight another day.

Whatever, it is we are learning a future of India here when India become a huge capitalist country. This is a test where how the capitalist outside Ambanis can actually do something to influence the polity. I would watch it from that perspective. Interesting

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Nov 2013 01:26

Published on Nov 18, 013
Telangana row: Jagan meets BJP president Rajnath Singh: Zee News

New Delhi: In a bid to garner support for a 'United' Andhra Pradesh, YSR Congress president YS Jaganmohan Reddy on Sunday met BJP president Rajnath Singh in the national capital.

Jagan urged the party to oppose the Telangana Bill which is likely to be introduced in Parliament during the winter session beginning on December 5.

BJP, however, is clear that it wants a separate Telangana to be carved out of Andhra Pradesh.

The meeting assumes significance as the NDA is scouting for new allies ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

Recently, Reddy's mother, YS Vijayamma had also met BJP leaders.

Jaganmohan, in the city as part of his nationwide tour to garner support from political parties for the united Andhra, had yesterday met CPI general secretary Suravaram Sudhakar Reddy and senior CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury.

While CPI refused to express solidarity with YSR Congress, CPI(M) maintained its position against any division of states.

Jagan has claimed that 75 per cent of the state's population is against bifurcation.

Jagan is fully happy with Telangana being carved out. But he wants to play out this drama. Anyway BJP did not fall for it, and it is the right thing to do to stick to their official stand that they are in favor of Telangana.

Interesting is CPI may be willing to support Telangana. Do they think it would help increase Maoism there? Don't know. But Congress can hope to get CPI's 4 LS votes.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Nov 2013 04:20

nageshks wrote:Guys - this survey, conducted in September-October 2013 predicts that the YSR Congress is going to win 13 seats, while the TDP can win only 8 seats in Andhra. (The survey is by IndiaTV by the way).

http://browse.feedreader.com/c/India_e_Info/694707012

Is the YSR Congress already more powerful than the TDP? And if the INC vote base collapses, can it be expected to become even more powerful than the TDP, to the extent of the TDP faces a washout?

I think this is the same as the CVoter survey that was shown on times now tv and linked from here.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 18 Nov 2013 04:48

hanumadu wrote:
nageshks wrote:Guys - this survey, conducted in September-October 2013 predicts that the YSR Congress is going to win 13 seats, while the TDP can win only 8 seats in Andhra. (The survey is by IndiaTV by the way).

http://browse.feedreader.com/c/India_e_Info/694707012

Is the YSR Congress already more powerful than the TDP? And if the INC vote base collapses, can it be expected to become even more powerful than the TDP, to the extent of the TDP faces a washout?
I think this is the same as the CVoter survey that was shown on times now tv and linked from here.

It could well be, Hanumadu-ji. What worries me is the strength they are ascribing to the YSR Congress. Is it really that strong, even with the Congress in existence? And have they managed to grab parts of the TDP votebank and perhaps the old PRAP vote bank as well?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 18 Nov 2013 05:04

RajeshA wrote: Jagan is fully happy with Telangana being carved out. But he wants to play out this drama. Anyway BJP did not fall for it, and it is the right thing to do to stick to their official stand that they are in favor of Telangana.

Interesting is CPI may be willing to support Telangana. Do they think it would help increase Maoism there? Don't know. But Congress can hope to get CPI's 4 LS votes.

Do you think that the Congress can walk back at this late point? Can they say `We made a mistake with Telangana, sorry. We back united Andhra?'

As far as I can see, there are three paths that the Congress can take.

1) They can go back on Telangana and tell Telangana `Sorry, we wanted to but BJP/TDP/KKR/<name the blamed victims> are not playing ball, and consequently, we cannot create Telangana'. This will wipe out the Congress in Telangana, but can they save their party in SeemaAndhra? What about their credibility? Will they have any left in SeemaAndhra? One suspects that TRS would be the main beneficiary in Telangana, but the BJP, with its currently pro-Telangana stand may also pick up a few crumbs.

2) They can go for broke and may even succeed. This will break their hold on SeemaAndhra, but they can hope on the B team of the Mafia, Jagan, to pick up slack. On the positive side for the Congress, they will be able to pick up plenty of seats in Telangana, even if the TRS fails to support them. They can also try to destroy the credibility of BJP and TDP, saying that they also supported Telangana, but are now going back. This way, they can indirectly help Jagan. Also, they can try to do a controlled crash, by getting more of their people in Jagan's party, and hope he delivers. However, this puts them at the mercy of Jagan. This is the best scenario for them. However, even their controlled crash will have plenty of their party members in SeemaAndhra jumping to TDP/BJP, and their scenario may not work as anticipated, if BJP TDP go with an alliance.

3) The last scenario is their potential disaster In this scenario, they introduce the Telangana Bill and are defeated by the opposition in parliament (either Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha). This will bring down the government, and also, most of their SeemaAndhra members will bolt for the BJP (many may choose TDP or Jagan, too). The BJP will be the main beneficiary here. If the BJP successfully defends the united Andhra interests, it will gain a lot of credibility in Andhra. This is the outcome the BJP must try to engineer, since it will destroy the Congress both in SeemaAndhra and Telangana (where the TRS will pick up most, if not all, seats).

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Nov 2013 05:20

nageshks wrote: 1) They can go back on Telangana and tell Telangana `Sorry, we wanted to but BJP/TDP/KKR/<name the blamed victims> are not playing ball, and consequently, we cannot create Telangana'. This will wipe out the Congress in Telangana, but can they save their party in SeemaAndhra? What about their credibility? Will they have any left in SeemaAndhra? One suspects that TRS would be the main beneficiary in Telangana, but the BJP, with its currently pro-Telangana stand may also pick up a few crumbs.

This chance is no more there. There is no one to listen to congress anymore. The replacement of congress is Jagan and that is final.

nageshks wrote: 2) They can go for broke and may even succeed. This will break their hold on SeemaAndhra, but they can hope on the B team of the Mafia, Jagan, to pick up slack. On the positive side for the Congress, they will be able to pick up plenty of seats in Telangana, even if the TRS fails to support them. They can also try to destroy the credibility of BJP and TDP, saying that they also supported Telangana, but are now going back. This way, they can indirectly help Jagan. Also, they can try to do a controlled crash, by getting more of their people in Jagan's party, and hope he delivers. However, this puts them at the mercy of Jagan. This is the best scenario for them. However, even their controlled crash will have plenty of their party members in SeemaAndhra jumping to TDP/BJP, and their scenario may not work as anticipated, if BJP TDP go with an alliance.

All these are past talk. The contest is mainly between TDP and Jagan. The problem in SA is where will the strong milti-millionaire congressmen will go. These guys can go to Jagan, TDP but these guys want a central theme. Can BJP fill in for them and give themselves a fillip and in the process align with TDP or Jagan for cadre purposes etc? For this one there needs a thaw on T-talk of BJP and a good negotiating tactics. BJP has ZERO loss even if they change their plate from T to SA.

nageshks wrote: 3) The last scenario is their potential disaster In this scenario, they introduce the Telangana Bill and are defeated by the opposition in parliament (either Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha). This will bring down the government, and also, most of their SeemaAndhra members will bolt for the BJP (many may choose TDP or Jagan, too). The BJP will be the main beneficiary here. If the BJP successfully defends the united Andhra interests, it will gain a lot of credibility in Andhra. This is the outcome the BJP must try to engineer, since it will destroy the Congress both in SeemaAndhra and Telangana (where the TRS will pick up most, if not all, seats).

Little wishful but the pointers of last few days are in this angle.

Regarding T-bill getting defeated, INC will not gain in Telangana as TRS will not be able to merge with Congress. In such a situation, the electoral battle in SA will not be of much interest because it will either TDP+BJP and YSRC or TDP Vs BJP+YSRC (I am doubtful of this). However, the interest shifts to Telangana. TRS will not sweep entire 17 seats. One goes to MIM. Out of 16 there are some HYD seats and also Seema Andhra type seats in few bordering districts and they will be swinging either way.

Without going into emotions, it is assured that if BJP plays a soft Telangana approach that looks like it helped United AP side will have rich dividends because if T is passed BJP gets zero in T anyway. In the process it needs to play aggressively to get the INC honchos into itself.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Nov 2013 07:46

nageshks wrote: It could well be, Hanumadu-ji. What worries me is the strength they are ascribing to the YSR Congress. Is it really that strong, even with the Congress in existence? And have they managed to grab parts of the TDP votebank and perhaps the old PRAP vote bank as well?

I am not aware of the situation on the ground, but I think some people here have been opining that its YSR all the way in SA. The same survey gives a loins share of Telangana to TRS. The BJP vote share was 10%, though 0 seats. So, its back to 1999 on the back of a NM wave. What a wasted 15 years?