Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Hari Seldon]

EC issued a notice to Arvind Kejriwal for seeking votes on grounds of religion to Muslim voters.

[Muppalla]

ABP -Nielson Survey Live new: BJP winning again in MP.

Looks a like 4-0 for BJP.

This is what I am eagerly looking for and these guys finally released the survey.

Idiots are helping INC in Chattisgargh and cooking all stories of congress comback etc. These idiots have even bought out Firstpost etc. The firstpost has a pattern. It will first write a genuine article to get credibility and then start writing filth so that avarage reader assumes everything as credible.

It is becoming very diffiucult to get what is right and what is wrong. Who is planting and who is not.

[fanne]

arnt opinion poll band until 8th? So how is ABP showing it (if it is showing, then it has establishment blessing). That may mean that the fight is close and they want the general voter to be complacent and not go out and vote. Now this is pure CT, no logic or data.

[Muppalla]

Hot masala dosa off from the tava ... BJP digs up 30-year-old letter on affair between two Cong leaders

It's a written complaint made by the wife of a Union Minister in the Rajiv Gandhi government in 1986.

Any learned biradars know about this ?

There is a small rider, though, at the end

The BJP may not put its entire weight behind the issue for fear that it may boomerang on them

I don't know about it but the widespread talk was about affair was that of Rajiv Gandhi and Uma Gajapathi Raju.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pusapati_A ... apati_Raju
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uma_Gajapathi_Raju

The rumor is that the divorce of the royal couple happened because of the affair. She later married Ramesh Sharma after Rajiv's death.

[Muppalla]

arnt opinion poll band until 8th? So how is ABP showing it (if it is showing, then it has establishment blessing). That may mean that the fight is close and they want the general voter to be complacent and not go out and vote. Now this is pure CT, no logic or data.

Only Exit polls are banned.

[Supratik]

In MP LS 28 out of 29 is doable (except perhaps Bhopal proper) as the Muslim vote is only 6-7%.

[Shanmukh]

In MP LS 28 out of 29 is doable (except perhaps Bhopal proper) as the Muslim vote is only 6-7%.

Supratik-ji,
Which is the seat which you deem impossible for BJP? Bhopal is being won continuously by the BJP since a long time. Kailas Joshi used to represent Bhopal, IIRC.

[Supratik]

Supratik-ji,
Which is the seat which you deem impossible for BJP? Bhopal is being won continuously by the BJP since a long time. Kailas Joshi used to represent Bhopal, IIRC.

OK. I was under the impression that Bhopal has 30-40% Muslim population. In that case even 29/29 is not impossible.

[Malayappan]

In MP LS 28 out of 29 is doable (except perhaps Bhopal proper) as the Muslim vote is only 6-7%.

Now, you being sarcastic! Because BJP since its formation has lost Bhopal only once - in 1984. From 89 onwards it has been winning that seat in every election - 7 times in a row!

[fanne]

MP Scindia and Ramesh's seat all are winnable!!

[Paul]

^^^SG made sure Uma Gajapathy Raju was never seen in Congress after RG's demise.

[Shanmukh]

Supratik-ji,
Which is the seat which you deem impossible for BJP? Bhopal is being won continuously by the BJP since a long time. Kailas Joshi used to represent Bhopal, IIRC.

OK. I was under the impression that Bhopal has 30-40% Muslim population. In that case even 29/29 is not impossible.

The problem seats for the BJP in MP are either in the tribal areas (like Jhabua, which keeps voting in Kantilal Bhuria of the Congress), or those which still vote on candidate and Congress loyalties. Chhindwara (Kamal Nath), Guna (Jyothiraditya Scindia) and Gwalior (where the royal family of the Scindias) has too much influence are the troublesome seats for the BJP.

[Malayappan]

Chindwara (Kamal Nath) will be the tough one. Only when Kamal Nath got arrogant and fielded his wife in a by-election, he lost. On his own he has won it 9 times in a row, since 1980. Re Scindia's seat, when BJP (or its side of the family) decided it could win Gwalior and Guna. Not sure if the nephew is still regarded with similar favor as the brother / son got!

[fanne]

Does anyone know what is the date of this ABP Nielson survey?

[vishvak]

In MP LS 28 out of 29 is doable (except perhaps Bhopal proper) as the Muslim vote is only 6-7%.

Now, you being sarcastic! Because BJP since its formation has lost Bhopal only once - in 1984. From 89 onwards it has been winning that seat in every election - 7 times in a row!

Is census data out yet? Census 2001 seems to be inaccessible as well so I am not sure if some one can be clear on census data. For example, Muslims population in 2001 could be 5% to 11% to may be more and BJP isn't aware of population demographics changes at all if numbers aren't out.

[Malayappan]

Is census data out yet? Census 2001 seems to be inaccessible as well so I am not sure if some one can be clear on census data. For example, Muslims population in 2001 could be 5% to 11% to may be more and BJP isn't aware of population demographics changes at all if numbers aren't out.

Not exactly from GoI source, but a compilation based on census of 2001 link here http://www.aicmeu.org/Muslim%20Populati ... 0India.htm

[Shanmukh]

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/11/20/b ... 59601.html

Another BJP functionary killed in Tamil Nadu. Looks like the gang killing BJP members in TN is still very active. JJ seems singularly passive over the killings of the BJP members. I am guessing that it is her way of making sure that the BJP never rises in south TN to challenge her hold in the area. Important for the BJP to grow in strength, and then break the hold of the Dravidian parties in the state.

[rajithn]

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/11/20/b ... 59601.html

Another BJP functionary killed in Tamil Nadu. Looks like the gang killing BJP members in TN is still very active. JJ seems singularly passive over the killings of the BJP members. I am guessing that it is her way of making sure that the BJP never rises in south TN to challenge her hold in the area. Important for the BJP to grow in strength, and then break the hold of the Dravidian parties in the state.

+1. JJ is playing her own game. Letting these incidents pass as these allow her the strangle hold across the state. BJP needs a "personality" that they can rally the crowds to. A Rajini or Vijay in Tamilnadu.

Kerala..I am not so sure what they can do to break the hold of the current dispensations - malappuram, kasargod being muslim dominated. South and West, "achayan" dominated. Leaves the small bit in the Malabar (Palakkad and thereabouts) but tenuous still as the voters here don't want to "waste" their votes and therefore go with the UDF or LDF.

[Sanku]

Some one wants to spread this around to a larger group?

To be sung to the tune of Lungi dance.

Farziwal, Farziwal, Farziwal, Farziwal, Farziwal

Oothon ko thoda round ghumake
Anna ke jaisi topi lagake
Coconut mein whiskey milake
Aa jaao sare fraud banake (x2)

All the Farzi fans - Lokpal
Don't miss the chance - Lokpal
All the Farzi fans - Lokpal
Don't miss the chance - Do This!

Farziwal, farziwal ......

Jado jawaani bada jor si ve jaalma
Main taa Farzi da fan si ve jaalma (x2)

Chuanv me jab ye gana bajega
On the booth aana padega
Sacchai ko uthana padega
Vote karke dikhana padega (x2)

All the Farzi fans - Lokpal
Don't miss the chance - Lokpal
All the Farzi fans - Lokpal
Don't miss the chance - Do This!

Farziwal, farziwal ......

(in a tiny whiny accent)
Polyeetics mai aaya, mai toh
Mujhko rokega kon aur kaiko
Maira type se fraud karega
Kisika BJP sai ni darega

Jisko jo bi hai wo karna wo kar lo
Idhar hi hoon mai khada pakad lo
Ghar pe jaake tum Google kar lo
Mere bare me Wikipedia pe padh lo
Farziwal, farziwal ......

Kon mujhsa hai kon
Oh baby yes I am a con
Nahi milega mujhsa go find it!
Don't question me, mind it!

Arey mere jaise fraud kisko aata hai
Congress-grapher ko mai hi sikhata hai
Woh ghar pe aata hai
Mujhse seekh ke jaata hai
Mujhse seekh ke woh papu ko sikhata hai
Farziwal, farziwal ......

Enjoy....

[Shanmukh]

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/11/20/b ... 59601.html

Another BJP functionary killed in Tamil Nadu. Looks like the gang killing BJP members in TN is still very active. JJ seems singularly passive over the killings of the BJP members. I am guessing that it is her way of making sure that the BJP never rises in south TN to challenge her hold in the area. Important for the BJP to grow in strength, and then break the hold of the Dravidian parties in the state.

+1. JJ is playing her own game. Letting these incidents pass as these allow her the strangle hold across the state. BJP needs a "personality" that they can rally the crowds to. A Rajini or Vijay in Tamilnadu.

Agree. Only film personalities seem successful in TN politics. Even Vaiko and Ramadoss have been marginal in TN.

Kerala..I am not so sure what they can do to break the hold of the current dispensations - malappuram, kasargod being muslim dominated. South and West, "achayan" dominated. Leaves the small bit in the Malabar (Palakkad and thereabouts) but tenuous still as the voters here don't want to "waste" their votes and therefore go with the UDF or LDF.

Kasargod is still about 60-65% Hindu. Malappuram, Ponnani, even Vadakara, and Wynad have a minority majority (or near parity). But if the BJP can win in the Kasargod-Kannur-Kozhikode region, that will be a start. But they seem incapable of it. I don't know if it is possible, but if the Neyyattinakara phenomenon repeats, there is hope for the BJP in the state. BJP needs to focus on the northern belt of three seats (Kasargod, Kannur, and Kozhikode), the one central belt seat of Palakkad, and Trivandrum in the southern belt. O Rajagopal has put in very impressive performances in Trivandrum, so I am hopeful, that with the Modi wave, he may just be able to win.

[Lilo]

[fanne]

In MP Jhabua, Chindwara and Guna or Gwalior (Scindia can only stand from 1) are only 3 sure shot seat of congress. BJP can, has and should win the rest 26.

[Shanmukh]

Some interesting news. I invite the readers to guess at the identities of the four Congress MPs. Can the Bihari MP be Meira Kumar, unless, of course, it is some Bihari neta elected from elsewhere to the Rajya Sabha? I cannot see the other Lok Sabha Congress MP from Bihar, Md. Ashraful Haque deserting the Congress for the BJP

http://news.rediff.com/commentary/2013/ ... da88060254

[muraliravi]

^^^SG made sure Uma Gajapathy Raju was never seen in Congress after RG's demise.

Well this also substantiates the fact that RG and SG were about to break up.

[ramana]

But read that news report before coming to conclusions.


Last line says MMS would be hard pressed as both parties are in his Cabinet now.


That rules out RG as he is no more.

[Agnimitra]

Divisive Congress: Karnataka hostel’s casteist regulations

In yet another attempt of divide and rule politics practiced by the Congress-ruled Karnataka Government, it has flagged-off a new scheme to start hostel for female nursing students open for all except two castes.

In its latest scheme, named after former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Karnataka Government has denied entry to Hindu Brahmin and Vaishya girls in the hostels.

After Shadi Bhagya only for Muslim girls, loan waivers only for certain castes/religions, school trip scheme for only certain castes/religion students, the Karnataka Congress Government has announced this scheme.

This move clearly shows that Sonia Gandhi’s Congress practices policy of divide and rule and appease a particular section of people to keep its vote bank intact.

[muraliravi]

In MP LS 28 out of 29 is doable (except perhaps Bhopal proper) as the Muslim vote is only 6-7%.

Bhopal city has only 22.8% muslim population. BJP has never lost that seat since 1989 with increasing vote share every time until 2004 when they won with 65% vote share. In 2009 they still won it with 51% votes, but the dip in the winning margin was due to delimitation. With this Namo wave, if BJP has any doubt about winning bhopal, they can forget India.

[RajeshA]

Some interesting news. I invite the readers to guess at the identities of the four Congress MPs. Can the Bihari MP be Meira Kumar, unless, of course, it is some Bihari neta elected from elsewhere to the Rajya Sabha? I cannot see the other Lok Sabha Congress MP from Bihar, Md. Ashraful Haque deserting the Congress for the BJP

http://news.rediff.com/commentary/2013/ ... da88060254

Md Ashraful Haque is a Maulana and last month had the pleasure of having Sonia Gandhi inaugurate a branch of Aligarh Muslim University in his Lok Sabha Constituency in Bihar: Kishanganj.

Meira Kumar is even a potential PM, may be remote controllable but still PM. If NDA doesn't make it, then she has got very good chances. Mayawati would not be able to say no. Even Samajwadi Party may agree to this SC. Left Front too may agree. So don't think Meira Kumar could even consider shifting to BJP. It is however another thing that she may not win her seat in Bihar. Chhedi Paswan of JD-U is now with BJP, so that could boost BJP candidate in Sasaram. But BSP too is strong there, and if there is a coalition INC-BSP then that seat can remain with Congress, though somehow I can't think that Mayawati would want Meira Kumar to win and thus pose a political challenge to her as the leader of the Dalits.

Congress has no Rajya Sabha members from Bihar.

[prahaar]

@RajeshAji, since when did requirements like becoming a Lok Sabha MP become essential for occupying the most powerful executive position in India?

[RajeshA]

@RajeshAji, since when did requirements like becoming a Lok Sabha MP become essential for occupying the most powerful executive position in India?

I guess for the most powerful, it doesn't matter if they lose an election or two. If they own their MPs and can find allies then they can occupy the PMO, if they so wish.

However those who are chosen to be the face, the Mukhauta, they have to have shown that they have not been rejected by the people, either by not losing the election or not fighting one in the first place.

Either Meira Kumar, Nandan Nilekani win their LS elections if they want to be in the running for PM, or they go for the RS route and do not fight any election at all.

[RajeshA]

I have a question for the gurus here. Which Congress leader/minister can be expected to get reelected in LS 2014?

[suryag]

^^^ Chidu

[Hari Seldon]

^^ Kamal Nath for one (groan). Shinde and Antony too, IMO.

In the list of those who probably won't - Sibal, Chidu, kursi-d, sriparakash jaiswal, perhaps pawan bansal...

[ramana]

^^^ Chidu

Because he knows how to?

[Vikas]

Potential Loser: Raj Babbar , Manish Tiwari

[muraliravi]

Potential Loser: Raj Babbar , Manish Tiwari

Raj Babbar may/will lose. Manish Tiwari will win again, the SAD candidate against him does not have a good chance to unseat him. But dont worry, he will go to jail after Namo becomes PM. The law that will be used against him is "Article 999 of the Criminal code: Foul Mouths where every word uttered causes Nausea of the Nth order and Instant Vomiting will be sentenced to 20 years in Tihar with no food, but only mouth wash as a 3 time diet"

[bhargava]

^^^ one hint, daagder Saab made a rule that wimmin can have their own ration card
and immediately 42 lacs cards were applied for and provided , and thus time of all the voters who voted
57% were female do the math's yourself.

Had inflation cast its shadow in Chhattisgarh polls?

• Women outnumbered male in exercising their franchise in the Chhattisgarh polls that propelled the political pundits to work on the new equations arising after the final phase of elections.
• Women normally do not come down to vote for a change,” political observer and retired bureaucrat Dr Sushil Kumar Trivedi told Business Standard. If that had been the trend, BJP leaders had all the reasons to smile—chief minister Raman Singh had been all set to create hat-trick in the state

niran saar, looks like I have to buy some mysore pak for you after all

[disha]

And news from UP.,

(Firstpost does not even have basic grammar and spell check. Indicated by SICs.)

Political parties rush to cash in on UP sugar crisis by Alka Pande 8 mins ago

If it is going to be a bitter year for sugar as all private mills in Uttar Pradesh have decided to not start crushing in this season, this will not be a sweet year for the Samajwadi Party (SP) run government as well.

Despite a strict government order to start crushing first from 15 November and then from 19 November, the millers are sitting and waiting for the government to announce the State Advisory Price (SAP), which should be not more than Rs 225. “UP government needs to resolve the problem as quickly as possible. It should also rationalise the cane pricing policy by applying the recommendations of the Rangrajan committee,” says Abinash Verma of Indian Sugar Millers association (ISMA).

Rangrajan Committe (SIC) had recommended that the cane pricing should be linked to sugar content and not related to weight of the cane. At present cane pricing is linked to its weight. Alignment of the sugar cane prices to the sugar prices is the only remedy On Tuesday, about 65 private mills, including Bajaj Hindustan, Daurala, Simbhawali, Dhampur and other sent a notice to the government expressing their inability to run the mills.

The Akhilesh Yadav government cannot annoy the farmers and at the same time it would not like to face the ire of the farmers as well (SIC). Therefore the government reacted in less than 24 hours and came up with a solution which it feels will keep both the parties happy. “Working on the demand of the millers we have decided the cane price of Rs 270/280 and Rs 290 for different varieties. We are also going to give a rebate to the millers on transport and the government has decided to waive off the purchase tax of Rs 2 per quintal which the millers had to pay”, the Principal Secretary Cane Rahul Bhatnagar told the Firstpost.

However, the offer does not seem to attract the millers as they have demanded the cane price of Rs 225. “Most probably we will reject this offer”, a miller expressed his apprehension. Noticeably, this year the millers did not even participate in the cane reservation meetings, in which, areas are allotted to cane growers to supply to mills in their vicinity. “The mills are facing huge loses as the sugar prices are low due to last two years of bumper sugar production.

While sugar prices are down, the rate of cane is increasing constantly. Making the scenario worse, the government of India also imported sugar from Pakistan in order to help the neighbouring country[\b]. The mills are not in a position to run if the cane price is anything more than Rs 225,” said an industry source. UP is the biggest cane producing state and second highest sugar producing state. Every year the government of India declares the Fair and Remunerative Price (RFP) for cane before the crushing season. On top of it, Uttar Pradesh is the only state where the government declares its own State Advisory Price (SAP), which is much higher than the RFP. The tussle is that while farmers demand a high price to cane, the industry demands a low price to make the mills viable to run. “The idea behind this SAP is to appease the 40 lakh cane farmers who form a big vote bank in the state, especially in the West”, said Surendra Rajput, a political analyst.

Politicians like Ajit Singh of RLD and Hukum Singh of BJP, are surviving on this cane politics. RLD has planned to hold a demonstration in the state capital on Thursday demanding the long time solution to the problems of sugar industry as well as cane farmers. Even Congress is contemplating a tie up with Ajit Singh, who has a hold in western UP. Ramesh Dixit, professor of Political Science, Lucknow University explains the situation – “The sugar industry affects each and every government, especially during the election year. The fact is that the sugarcane growers are spread everywhere – west, east and central UP – no government can overlook them. Besides, farmers and millers both have their strong lobbies and the government has to keep both of them happy – one for money the other for votes.” Professor Dixit further says that there are always cane arrears on millers’. The government takes the money from the industry and use that money to pay off the arrears[\b]. This way the government takes the credit and industry feels relieved. This practice is going on with all the government, irrespective of their political alliances.” Sugarcane is an issue, which gives mileage to both the ruling party as well as the opposition. This year because of the tussle between the farmers and the millers, it is the opposition which is gaining weight.

“The SAP announced by the government is not sufficient. States like Haryana are paying Rs 300-305 per quintal”, says BJP state spokesperson Vijay Bahadur Pathak. He points out that SP in its election manifesto had mentioned that it would constitute a commission to decide the minimum support price for the cane farmers’ produce, but now it is making decisions under the pressure from the millers. BJP is already seeing its victory on 8-9 seats out of about a dozen seats in the cane belt.[\b] This face off between cane farmers and sugar mills will only add fuel to the fire for SP. The fact is that the price announced by the government has neither made the millers happy nor charmed the cane farmers. As it is, this year has become more crucial for the ruling party in the state. The party has lost its goodwill in western UP because of so many riots, especially the Muzaffarnagar one. And now the tussle of sugar industry! Most of the farmers in this area (western UP) are Jaats, who are already angry with SP because of the way their government handled the riots. These Jaats are showing their inclination towards BJP. The SP government wants to win back these Jaats cane farmers through this cane pricing but has failed to do so due to pressure of the millers, who this year are hell bent to get their way.

Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/polit ... ef_article

My solution for the above - pay higher prices for good cane., after sugar use the sugar cane for Rum (including several artisan Rums), then ethanol (look at Brazil, it is better to put 10% ethanol in Indian Gasoline and subsidize Indian farmers than the Saudi Barbarians, and use the bagasse as a source for generating electricity - or use it for innovative use for making furniture, paper etc) - For all this, the government and babus need to get out of the way.

[krishnan]

^^^ Chidu

Because he knows how to?

A local TV surveyed his place 10-15 days back, people were angry , one guy who lives near his house says he hasnt seen the minister after he won the election , and asks what kind of minister is he who neglects his own street, close to 70-80% interviewed that day were against him, but this is just a TV programme , so dunno how true it is

[krishnan]

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 2h

Delhi U exams declared for Dec 5. To discourage students from voting and cast their vote by impersonation. PTs beware