China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

[NRao]

The Chinese throttle anything they do. They have a very flexible game plan that changes according to the situation. The latest developments are a clear sign that something has happened in the recent past that has strengthened the Chinese and weakened the rest - certainly the Japanese. IF lives have to be saved the "rest" have to push back very hard. This new development should be viewed as one that impacts the rest of the nations - not just japan. None should keep out of it. IF we do keep out of it - thinking it is a Sino-Japanese problem - we all are going to face these kinds of attacks.

[Cosmo_R]

@NRao ^^^: "IF we do keep out of it - thinking it is a Sino-Japanese problem - we all are going to face these kinds of attacks."

+1. This divide and conquer 101. Next the 'defence perimeter' will extend to 'Southern Tibet'.

India needs to get off its 'Low T' bowing and scraping to PRC. We seriously need to push back: Take the lead in a 'concert of democracies' thingies. Get SOKO to look beyond WW2 and partner with a broader group comprising Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia. Then bring on the US as an equal, interested and effective partner/bouncer. Even the Russkies will join up in the signaling.

Interoperability at the political and military level.

OK wet dreams. MEA and PMO and babooz are low T Rodney King types who led us to 1962. Their spawn are now in charge and loath to offend Smaug (PRC).

Lone ranger approach wont work. We'll be picked off one by one by the Han.

There's a tectonic shift underway in geopolitics. We need to ride wave not just issue surf advisories and tell people to evacuate.

[member_28131]

I would like to add that the recent border pact with India may be a part of strategy to keep India out of South China sea. The aggressive border events preceding the pact could be to get some leverage and ensure that India signs this pact and stays at bay in interest of peace at the LAC.

[NRao]

China knows no pact. She will wait till she gets strong enough to break a pact and then slowly act to break you.

Nations (especially the US) need to wisen up, corner China and keep it that way for good. This stuff about being partners in economics and God knows what on other front is a terrible message to send them. As I see it China is like a drug to the world - we are economically hooked to this stupidity.

[asprinzl]

The chinese are still very far away from being able to physically challange anyone in the Pacific. Its pure bravado to intimidate the Japas because the Japanese are probably the most pacifists in the region and they can also invoke the Japanese misdeeds of WW2 to make the Japanese feel guilty.

A few years ago the Philipines airforce sent their naval installations to smitherens in one of the spartly island and they could not diddly squat. That is one of the reason they are still sulking and provided just chump change to the Philipines after the typhoon hit last week.

[member_20292]

Dont see you too much around these parts asprinzl ji?

you should try and visit and post more often!

[VijayN]

^^^
More than japan's reaction, what will obama say/do?? China will provoke yankees more and more going forward. It should be interesting to see if chinese strictly enforce their red line when obama didn't/couldn't.

Here are some reactions, remains to be seen if US really can stand up for it's ally.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-deeply-concern ... 07007.html

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/23/world/asi ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[ashish raval]

^^ Japan could very well put SAM's and missile defence batteries to counter this. There is no restriction if aggressor has taken first step. China always want to take bold step to have and upper hand in any negotiation that follows, this is why they have kept expanding while other nations which does not do that keeps shrinking.

[Brando]

If anybody thinks the US is going to commit its forces over the Senkaku Islands they have lost their mind.

Looks like John Kerry and Chuck Hagel have lost their minds.

If Amerika fails to honor its treaty with Japan, then Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia need to reevaluate the "nuclear umbrella" that the USA provides. And it also calls into question Japan's Pacifist Constitution.

[Brando]

A few years ago the Philipines airforce sent their naval installations to smitherens in one of the spartly island and they could not diddly squat. That is one of the reason they are still sulking and provided just chump change to the Philipines after the typhoon hit last week.

China still holds Scarborough Shoal to this day and the Pinoys can do squat. The US "arbitrated" the treaty and negotiated a mutual pull out of both Chinese fishermen and Filipino Naval ships, but despite the Filipino pullout the Chinese remained and today that shoal is under effective Chinese control.

Let's remember that this Scarborough Shoal is just 124 nautical miles from Subic Bay, a potential site for an USN return to the island nation.

[Singha]

way I see it - all the others for various reasons are status-quoist powers (like india) who would be happy if nothing happened beyond what is ground position today.

this has left the door open for china to creep around and upset the cart at times and places of its choosing and each time "dare" the others incl the US to escalate just as it successfully uses the same strategy on other fronts like missile and nuclear help to clients.

[TSJones]

If anybody thinks the US is going to commit its forces over the Senkaku Islands they have lost their mind.

Looks like John Kerry and Chuck Hagel have lost their minds.

If Amerika fails to honor its treaty with Japan, then Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia need to reevaluate the "nuclear umbrella" that the USA provides. And it also calls into question Japan's Pacifist Constitution.

Appearantly you had some trouble reading my message.

I will reiterate for you.

The US is not and will not go to war over the Senkaku Islands. If the Japanese homeland is attacked then the US will step in. But not until the Japanese homeland is threatened.

I don't think the US has the same treaty with the Philippines as we do with the Japanese. (We have massive militay bases on japan, we don't on the philippines.) That would have to be renegotiated. But we have shown willingness help them where nobody else has in the past.

If you think the US is somebody's nuclear stooge you've got aother thing coming. Especially over disputed territory where nobody lives.

[member_28131]

The US is not and will not go to war over the Senkaku Islands. If the Japanese homeland is attacked then the US will step in. But not until the Japanese homeland is threatened.

Exactly!

Which is why Japan is not afraid of escalating this issue.

[Brando]

If you think the US is somebody's nuclear stooge you've got aother thing coming. Especially over disputed territory where nobody lives.

Perhaps you are not up to date on the news.

US vows to defend Japan if China Air zone sparks crisis
Hagel repeated that the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands — which the Chinese and Taiwanese claim as Diaoyu and Tiaoyutai, respectively — are covered by the U.S.-Japan security treaty, meaning the U.S. would defend its ally if the area is attacked .

Also,

http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121223
"We remain steadfast in our commitments to our allies and partners. The United States reaffirms its longstanding policy that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands ."

Doesn't matter if it's territory "where nobody lives" or if its not what the USA thinks is "Japanese homeland". The treaty makes no such differentiations. Large tracts of Hokkaido are also uninhabited, does that mean its okay for China or Russia to invade them ? And Okinawa can also be considered not to be "Japanese Homeland".

This isn't the first time the US Government has explicitly stated its commitment to protect Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku islands. After all it was the US that transferred control over these islands to Japan after WW2 in the first place.

The US signed a treaty with Japan after WW2 - There are only two options; either it abides by the treaty and fulfills its obligations or it doesn't. Stooges and clowns have nothing to do with it because Japan's has always been under the threat of nuclear attack be they from USSR or later Russia or China or North Korea and the USA knew this going in.

[TSJones]

^^^^ Not gonna happen. Guaranteed. Stay tuned as China ratches up the pressure.

It's like the US will do domething about its illegal immigration problem. Not gonna happen.

I know my country. Too many economic interests involved.

[VijayN]

^^^^ Not gonna happen. Guaranteed. Stay tuned as China ratches up the pressure.

It's like the US will do domething about its illegal immigration problem. Not gonna happen.

I know my country. Too many economic interests involved.

Could very well be the case, that US won't do anything.

Historically, no country has called this security guarentee bluff (true/false?). It perhaps could be because of US's persuasion power behind-doors, would be a very interesting situation and a potential game changer in the geopolitical realities if the Chinese does decide to test waters.

Just imagine if China/Japan went ahead and escalated this situation (not gonna happen), the US will be caught between a rock and a hard place. Economic interests apart, they cannot simply be seen as losing their #1 position militarily and the rest would be for the history books.

[member_22539]

^^^^ Not gonna happen. Guaranteed. Stay tuned as China ratches up the pressure.

It's like the US will do domething about its illegal immigration problem. Not gonna happen.

I know my country. Too many economic interests involved.

I certainly hope that is the way it turns out to be. It would expose USA for the pathetic wimp it has turned into. Furthermore, it will shake the Japanese out of their artificial pacifism. In the end, it might end up doing more good than bad.

[NRao]

I am not sure what exactly TS means, but my interpretation is that the US will not physically intervene. But, as it has done in many cases back door options will be employed. This move by China is not just Japan centric, it is also to gauge what others will or will not do. China too does not want to get into any pi$$ing matches (and get hurt in the process).

However, if all fails and the US can maintain her economic interests intact she will intervene with her forces.

At this point in time it is a matter of economics.

[VijayN]

Have a question, perhaps some of you can provide a perspective.

Who for US is a better bet? China or the Japanese?

US is married economically to the Chinese to the core (Toilet paper imports too), while Japan is a strategic/econimic ally. Will they throw the pacifists under the bus or risk an escalation? Perhaps the answer is obvious, no WWIII!!

[TSJones]

Did the US send forces on the Britain Falkland Islands? No.
Did the US declare war on NKorea when it shot down a US Navy monitoring plane over the Japan sea and lost 18 people? No.
Did the US declare war on NoKorea when it captured the ship Pueblo and killed a sailor? No.
Did the US declare war when NoLorea bombarded a SoKorea Island and killed several people? No.
Did the US declare war when a chinese fighter jet rammed a US Navy P-3 sixty miles out at sea, landed in china and then had the plane seized, confiscated and stripped it of all its classified eletronics? No.
Did the US declare war whn the NoKos launched a rocket over the Japanese mainland? No.

Will the US militarily intervene if Japan and China have an air or ship war near the Chinese coast over the Senkakus? No. Not unless the Japanese mainland is threatened.

End of story.

[SaiK]

all for oil! US will give a support but may not go all out against china. Cause, within about a year or two the saudies will be thrown away as US gonna become worlds #1 oil producer, and might start exporting after that having succeeded 100% home based shale oil.

these islands and energy issues, and that is all the problem is. where china contends, it must be for natural resource or energy... somehow they feel they have the right for everything.

[NRao]

Errrrr...........

The story on the US becoming a world leader in oil production: Will last ONLY till 2025. After that the production will decline.

Flirting.

[NRao]

Japan Rejects China’s Claim to Air Rights Over Islands

China’s announcement appeared to be the latest step in what analysts have called a strategy to chip away at Japan’s claims of control of the islands. Japan has long maintained a similar air defense zone over them.

The Japanese foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, called the Chinese declaration a dangerous escalation that could lead to what many military analysts most fear in the tense standoff: a miscalculation or accident that could set off an armed confrontation and drag the United States into the conflict.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly rejected Mr. Kishida’s objections. “The Japanese side’s irresponsible comments about China’s demarcation of an East China Sea air defense identification zone are totally wrong,” a spokesman for the ministry, Qin Gang, said in comments published on its website on Sunday.

In a statement on Saturday, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned that the American government viewed the Chinese move “as a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region.” He also reaffirmed that the United States would stand by its security treaty obligations to aid Japan if it were attacked.

For now, the United States and Japan appear to be trying to determine how serious China is about policing its newly declared zone, or whether the declaration is a political gesture to try to appease nationalist sentiments. However, it is equally unclear how Japan would respond if China tries to enforce it. Mr. Kishida did not say whether Japan would take any countermeasures, like increasing patrols in the airspace over the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China.

Mr. Qin dismissed criticisms from Secretary of State John Kerry and Mr. Hagel, and said the Chinese Foreign Ministry had complained to the American ambassador to Beijing, Gary Locke, about their remarks.

“The United States really should not take sides on the question of sovereignty over the Diaoyu islands,” Mr. Qin said.

[rajrang]

Did the US send forces on the Britain Falkland Islands? No.
Did the US declare war on NKorea when it shot down a US Navy monitoring plane over the Japan sea and lost 18 people? No.
Did the US declare war on NoKorea when it captured the ship Pueblo and killed a sailor? No.
Did the US declare war when NoLorea bombarded a SoKorea Island and killed several people? No.
Did the US declare war when a chinese fighter jet rammed a US Navy P-3 sixty miles out at sea, landed in china and then had the plane seized, confiscated and stripped it of all its classified eletronics? No.
Did the US declare war whn the NoKos launched a rocket over the Japanese mainland? No.

Will the US militarily intervene if Japan and China have an air or ship war near the Chinese coast over the Senkakus? No. Not unless the Japanese mainland is threatened.

End of story.

In the Falklands War Britain did not need the help of the US. They were sure of winning.

In the remaining examples control over a territorial region was not involved. They were more in the nature of "incidents." Remember US military aircraft may also travel through the Senkaku airspace. Freedom of travel through oceans is something dear to the US and the West.

A contrary example is when President Clinton sent two carriers battle groups to the Taiwan Straits in 1996 - economic interests (i.e. filling US stores with made in china products) notwithstanding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiw ... y_response

Again in 2002 and 2006

http://m.spokesman.com/stories/2007/dec ... an-strait/

I appreciate your self-confidence when you claim you know your country. But I am afraid in this case it remains to be seen how it will play itself out. Remember also, the Chinese Navy is still no match for the US Navy and will not be for a very long time to come.

A tough US response would be to send one or two carrier groups to Senkaku islands and humiliate China so they behave themselves for some more years. They need to be shown their place periodically. Only, the US can do that.

Perhaps after some years (decades?) a new generation of Chinese people and their leaders will learn to get along with the rest of the world and stop their awkward behavior with other countries.

[NRao]

If I understand this Chinese diktat correctly it is meant only for air space.

I think every nation worth its salt needs to send a plane through that space (without letting China know about it).

[rajrang]

Next they could do the same thing to the oceans, to SE China Sea, to AP etc.

Only Japan and the US have air forces and navies that can stand up to China. Countries that share a border with China (India, Russia, Vietnam) have a disadvantage because they also have to deal with the PLA.

[NRao]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25050493

On Sunday, Yang Yujun, a spokesman for China's Ministry of National Defence, said Japan's reaction was "absolutely groundless and unacceptable".

"We strongly require the Japanese side to stop all moves that undermine China's territorial sovereignty as well as irresponsible remarks that misguide international opinions and create regional tensions," Mr Yang said.

He also demanded that the US "earnestly respect China's national security [and] stop making irresponsible remarks for China's setup of the East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone".

South Korea said it found it "regretful" that China's new zone partly overlapped with its own military air zone, and covered Ieodo, a submerged rock claimed by Seoul.

"I'd like to say once again that we have unchanging territorial control over Ieodo," Kim Min-seok, a South Korean defence ministry spokesman, said on Monday.

Taiwan also claims the Japan-controlled disputed islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Taiwan said that it would "defend its sovereignty over the archipelago."

China said the air defence zone came into effect from 10:00 local time (02:00GMT) on Saturday.

We are missing a party out there.

[Aditya_V]

Nope let China declare war on Vietnam, Loas, Myanmar, Kazakhistan, Krgystan, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, North Korea, Philipines, Indonasia at the same time.

Taller than the Mountains and deeper than the ocean also should be bound declare war on these countries plus thier western allies.

[raj-ji]

The Chinese throttle anything they do. They have a very flexible game plan that changes according to the situation. The latest developments are a clear sign that something has happened in the recent past that has strengthened the Chinese and weakened the rest - certainly the Japanese. IF lives have to be saved the "rest" have to push back very hard. This new development should be viewed as one that impacts the rest of the nations - not just japan. None should keep out of it. IF we do keep out of it - thinking it is a Sino-Japanese problem - we all are going to face these kinds of attacks.

Agree with you that something must have changed for them to adopt this posture. One could speculate that Russia is backing the Pandas in this. That would be enough for the Pandas with no real allies except NoKo and a few African countries to get bolder.

I disagree however with the analysis that the Panda is playing a strategic well thought out game against the Japanese. When it comes to the Japanese the Panda is more emotional than logical. Too much historical baggage that gets in the way of thinking objectively. Add to that the Panda's desire to flex it's newly formed military muscles and you can account for their recent posturing. They have a bone or two to pick with the Japanese, and countless billions invested in their military. This easily explains the posture they are taking.

The Panda may be rolling in cash, but they are outmatched militarily in this region. Agree with others that the US will not step in for the islands. But that does not mean the US will not part with cutting edge tech to the Japanese to defend Japanese interests. Speculation but loan out some F-22s to the Japanese for a healthy price. There are more ways to fight a war than sending troops. Changing the balance of power through advanced weapons is another way. For a healthy price of course.

This is why one could speculate that Russia could be backing the Pandas. Even though the Pandas are making strides in their own defence projects, as of now there are only two big players in the defence game. Russia will capitalize on this if it can.

Just like the US won't intervene unless the Panda does something drastic, Russia won't intervene either. But the two will profit from both sides trying to up the ante.

From our perspective, good to sit back and watch the Panda shoot itself in the foot. Because no matter what, this posturing hurts business for the Panda. And hurting the Panda economically has massive ramifications.

[TSJones]

The Japanese have F-15s that can handle the situation. They have great avionics and weaponry too. Plus they can fly out of Okinawa US Marine Air base. We have air to air refuelers there and the Marines ain't sitting there without a anti A/C missiles systems either. And I almost forgot there is a squadron Marine F-18 Super Hornets based in Okinwa, gee who woulda thunk it? And the Japanese want our gracious cammie clad ambassadors to *leave* Okinawa? OK, we'll go to Guam. Sayanara ...........

[NRao]

China slams 'inappropriate' U.S. remarks on territorial dispute with Japan

[kit]

one cannot but help admiring the chinese 'art of war' . Winning a war is by not fighting in the first place.Get the biggest chap in your backyard by the neck and get him to back down is indeed the best way to make sure all the little guys in the backyard listens to your orders from then ! ( er, no pun indended..but it includes india ) . japs even with its bullish prime minister has very less stomach for a conflict.

[sudhan]

The Chinese are now sailing their A/C carrier into the party zone

China's first aircraft carrier steams towards disputed South China Sea

Pot's going to boil rapidly..

[Cosmo_R]

Two U.S. B-52 bombers flew over a disputed island chain in the East China Sea without informing Beijing, in a direct challenge to China's expanded air defense zone. (WSJ) breaking story.

Take that panda bear!

More:

WASHINGTON—A pair of American B-52 bombers flew over a disputed island chain in the East China Sea without informing Beijing, U.S. officials said Tuesday, in a direct challenge to China and its establishment of an expanded air defense zone.

The planes flew out of Guam and entered the new Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone at about 7 p.m. Washington time Monday, according to a U.S. official.

Over the weekend, Beijing said it was expanding its Air Defense Identification Zone to include the island chain, which is claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo but administered by Japan. The islands, the source of growing friction in the region, are known as the Diaoyu Islands in China and Senkaku Islands in Japan.

Defense officials earlier had promised that the U.S. would challenge the zone and would not comply with Chinese requirements to file a flight plan, radio frequency or transponder information.

The flight of the B-52s, based at Anderson Air Force Base in Guam, were part of a long planned exercise called Coral Lightening. The bombers were not armed and were not accompanied by escort planes.

[rsingh]

The Japanese have F-15s that can handle the situation. They have great avionics and weaponry too. Plus they can fly out of Okinawa US Marine Air base. We have air to air refuelers there and the Marines ain't sitting there without a anti A/C missiles systems either. And I almost forgot there is a squadron Marine F-18 Super Hornets based in Okinwa, gee who woulda thunk it? And the Japanese want our gracious cammie clad ambassadors to *leave* Okinawa? OK, we'll go to Guam. Sayanara ...........

Not so easy. It is not Japanese problem onlee. Be ready to say Sayonara to US domination in Asia. I remember in 1989 some wise grey hair US senators proclaiming that China has very primitive armed force...........at least 20 years behind that of US. Well 20 years have passed and if US wants to stay relevent in Asia......it has to show that. Otherwise pack up.

[member_23370]

Yeah sure. China is actually capable of doing diddly squat and US will not simply stand by.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-flies ... ne-2013-11
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... s/3746771/
http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/ ... =worldnews

[Indranil]

US B-52 bombers challenge disputed China air zone

[navneeet]

http://www.ibtimes.com/china-engage-six ... nt-chinese

Another Chinese wet dream!

[DavidD]

The ADIZ is just a political tool to show "toughness" that has the side benefit of being able to be used in the future to justify a war should it become necessary. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea are not gonna comply with the ADIZ, just like nobody is complying with Japan's ADIZ right now. I mean, do you think Chinese planes bother to notify the Japanese when they fly less than 100 miles from their own shores (the Japanese ADIZ extends to merely ~80 miles from the Chinese shores at its nearest point)?

[DavidD]

one cannot but help admiring the chinese 'art of war' . Winning a war is by not fighting in the first place.Get the biggest chap in your backyard by the neck and get him to back down is indeed the best way to make sure all the little guys in the backyard listens to your orders from then ! ( er, no pun indended..but it includes india ) . japs even with its bullish prime minister has very less stomach for a conflict.

Make no mistake about it, the biggest chap in the Chinese backyard is the U.S., and it'll be a long time before China can get that chap by the neck.