Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 26 Nov 2013 08:04

hey you guys...stop saying 4-0...remember the BR ANTI JINX ?

BJP will loose onleeee....0-4 in favor of con party...aal iz laast ... Yindia will suffer eternal damnation....

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Nov 2013 08:11

Where is Dilbu?

All you shivering wont do to his one shiver.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 26 Nov 2013 08:29

niran · Post by **niran** » 26 Nov 2013 08:58

average voting was 71% period,
congress netas felt the ground under their feet pulled(literally),even in their strongholds of Rewa, Bhind, Muraina & Gwalior
so much so that few congressis had to resort to the old tactic of booth capturing and were rewarded with bullets
one budding neta dead and 11 chelas injured, one party tried to attack a village and villagers chased them to
save his ass from prosecution the neta tried to file FIR as if congress was the victim last heard the team were laughed off the thana they were gheraoing, one attacked, group of bjp cadres celebrating and were rewarded with
kind they fled to the thana and thana people thought it is a naxal attack, after mucho dhoti pissing and pleading
situationwa is under control but tense.
now the battle ground is dill and rajasthan in dilli it is migrants from Bihar (7-8 hundred thousand) plus UP against the BDese and RoPers. rajasthan jats are angry punjabi Jats are angry Singhs are angry Marwarese have pledge supports to Bhajapa forcing Sonia Ghandhi to take maters in her own hands she is reading pages after pages while shaking severely.

member_25682 · Post by **member_25682** » 26 Nov 2013 11:58

gakakkad wrote:hey you guys...stop saying 4-0...remember the BR ANTI JINX ?

BJP will loose onleeee....0-4 in favor of con party...aal iz laast ... Yindia will suffer eternal damnation....

Not JINXING... but where does EVM magic fit in record voting % ... me shivering onlee...

.....8th Dec come fast onlee..

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 26 Nov 2013 13:51

BJP & NDA will lose onlee.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 26 Nov 2013 14:50

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 377867.cms
Rahul does a Delhi in Jodhpur, people leave amid his speech

In a repeat performance of the Delhi episode, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi evoked ennui among his audience in Jodhpur while addressing an election rally on Monday afternoon. Rahul was forced to wrap up his speech at the city's Umaid Stadium, as people started leaving the venue around 13 minutes after he took over the mike.

The gathering that largely comprised youngsters repeatedly hooted him even as the Congress leader had barely begun the address. After around 10 minutes, the people lost patience and started leaving. Unlike his Delhi counterpart, the Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot, though, made no appeal to the people to remain seated and left it for the party vice-president to conclude his speech.

BJP will lose

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 26 Nov 2013 15:11

I think MP & CG are lost only.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Nov 2013 15:33

Chandragupta wrote:I think MP & CG are lost only.

I think delhi is also lost, and rajsthan

we are doomed.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 26 Nov 2013 15:59

BJP will lose only.. sensitive index will drop only..

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 26 Nov 2013 16:17

anmol wrote:

Neutral media only ready with information etcetera.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 26 Nov 2013 17:50

BTW what is the logic behind high voter turnout being good for the BJP. Considering that they are the incumbent, shouldn't it be the opposite?

saumitra_j · Post by **saumitra_j** » 26 Nov 2013 18:13

abhik wrote:BTW what is the logic behind high voter turnout being good for the BJP. Considering that they are the incumbent, shouldn't it be the opposite?

No expert but my two cents: High voter turn out is typically considered pro -incumbency.... the major reason being that middle class comes out and vote and typically middle classes tend to vote only for govts they like - and stay at home and enjoy the holiday when they have govts they do not like, in the absence of any other emotive factors for the election. BJP is normally considered to be a party that relies a lot on middle class support - and hence the thought that higher turnout means good for BJP.

It is worth bearing in mind that the typical CONgress voters (especially from the slums et al) exercise their franchise much more regularly than the middle class - so it is almost safe to assume that in case of a low voter turnout, traditional CONgress voters have voted but the traditional BJP ones have not.....

JMT and all that....

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Nov 2013 18:23

abhik wrote:BTW what is the logic behind high voter turnout being good for the BJP. Considering that they are the incumbent, shouldn't it be the opposite?

High turn out means that people are motivated to go out and vote -- it could be
1) For a wave (pro something, sympathy, anti something)
2) Motivated cadre taking pains to mobilize voters.

Now from 1 -- there is no anger against BJP, there is no sympathy, and there is a bit of pro Modi wave
2 -- congress organization is in disarray in MP and Chgarh with massive infighting.

Thus higher voting is seen if favor of bjp.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Nov 2013 18:32

Abhi_k ji,
Another speculation (I hope BJP is analyzing the real reason and then keeping it secret), is that late voting etc (or high trun out) prefers a cadre based party (you can also argue otherwise). Few points to consider, Of late high voting % has been pro incumbency (means nothing actually). My take, higher voting % is a new normal, as making and getting voter cards has become easy, voting safe (with more and more EVM and less booth capturing), you see more voting. Still some 30% to 40% people are typically not voting, you can safely bet, most of them would be typically of one ideological persuasion. But the bad thing about these people are, in our history there were always x% of people who were indifferent to whether we were attacked or ruled by an outside power. While majority participated in some way to undermine these attackers, few supported them, but quite a good % did not bother. I believe this non voting people are descendants of these people.
rgds,
fanne

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 26 Nov 2013 19:26

Abhik, it is general perception that muslims, sc, st are traditionally congi voters and they never miss to vote. Especially muslims vote tactically to ensure bjp defeat. Hence higher percentage of voting would neutralize their tactics. Upper cast, middle class, urban population, educated people (including sc, st but excluding Ms) are considered to be bjp supporters who sadly don't go to vote that much. Explains why congis ruled for 60 years. This is an overall scenario on the country. Of course there are region specific equations also.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Nov 2013 19:58

kapilrdave wrote:Abhik, it is general perception that muslims, sc, st are traditionally congi voters and they never miss to vote. Especially muslims vote tactically to ensure bjp defeat. Hence higher percentage of voting would neutralize their tactics. Upper cast, middle class, urban population, educated people (including sc, st but excluding Ms) are considered to be bjp supporters who sadly don't go to vote that much. Explains why congis ruled for 60 years. This is an overall scenario on the country. Of course there are region specific equations also.

I cant say about dalits, but tribals are hardly in congress pocket anymore. BJP has been consistently getting 50% tribal vote wherever it is a serious player.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 26 Nov 2013 20:12

^^ That is recent trend which is majorly because of Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Nov 2013 21:14

BJP will loose onlee

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 27 Nov 2013 00:13

Chattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan are going to BJP. MIzo to congis. Delhi , scene is yet to become clear but BJP is in lead in the run up.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Nov 2013 01:29

chaanakya wrote:Chattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan are going to BJP. MIzo to congis. Delhi , scene is yet to become clear but BJP is in lead in the run up.

You are jinxing it man! We are losing every thing including our shirts. You got that Roger?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Nov 2013 02:17

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/assem ... 131126.htm

The Congress party is toying with the idea of going for early polls if it does well in the five state assembly elections.

Click here!
The idea of early polls has gained currency at 10 Janpath and 7 Race Course Road after the Congress war room received "positive" feedback about the party’s prospects in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Word from 15 Gurudwara Rakab Ganj is that Congress may post an upset win in Bhopal. If that happens, Congress managers are upbeat about another state -- either Delhi or Rajasthan -- coming into their kitty.

In such a "dream scenario", they feel the February 2014 Lok Sabha polls would demolish the Narendra Modi-led BJP.

The big question is whether luck would smile on the grand old party in such a lavish manner.

Is this a precursor to EVM magic?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Nov 2013 03:40

vivek.rao wrote:http://www.rediff.com/news/report/assem ... 131126.htm

The Congress party is toying with the idea of going for early polls if it does well in the five state assembly elections.

Click here!
The idea of early polls has gained currency at 10 Janpath and 7 Race Course Road after the Congress war room received "positive" feedback about the party’s prospects in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Word from 15 Gurudwara Rakab Ganj is that Congress may post an upset win in Bhopal. If that happens, Congress managers are upbeat about another state -- either Delhi or Rajasthan -- coming into their kitty.

In such a "dream scenario", they feel the February 2014 Lok Sabha polls would demolish the Narendra Modi-led BJP.

The big question is whether luck would smile on the grand old party in such a lavish manner.

Is this a precursor to EVM magic?

This is all Congressis on the ground per forma reporting to Madam ji that all iz well, Congress wd form the govts in all 5 states.

Madam: How did it go?
Congi: Madam ji, thank you very much for calling, Madam!
Madam: How did the election go?
Congi: Very very good madam! Everything is good, madam! We bill most definitely make next govt. U please don't worry Madam!
Madam: This sounds good too good to be true. Are you sure?
Congi: 400% sure, Madam! You don't worry! Have nice sleep!

Either this, or Congress is telling voters in Rajasthan and Dehi that if they let Congress win, they would not have to wait till May for a change of govt at the center! Inducements onleee!

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 27 Nov 2013 06:29

Opinion poll live from Greater Kailash.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9YPF3A3Odg&feature=youtu.be

A quote from the reporter on Tweeter.

My Delhi Election Report 69:People unsure of AAP getting majority may switch 2 BJP.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 27 Nov 2013 06:57

Some news that seems a bit strange to me. Apparently, Congress is confident about winning Chhattisgarh, and is going to give a close fight in MP.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131127/j ... pVRNMQ3v5o

Does anyone know anything about the author Sanjay Jha?

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 27 Nov 2013 07:46

nageshks wrote:Some news that seems a bit strange to me. Apparently, Congress is confident about winning Chhattisgarh, and is going to give a close fight in MP.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131127/j ... pVRNMQ3v5o

Does anyone know anything about the author Sanjay Jha?

Seriously, you don't know Sanjay Jha ? Google him.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 27 Nov 2013 07:59

I think this Sanjay Jha is not the same as Cong. Spokesman SJ.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Nov 2013 08:10

Is this a precursor to EVM magic?

Precisely my worry. EVM magic hasn't much been visible in state polls. But there's always a desperate first time.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 27 Nov 2013 08:21

anmol wrote:
nageshks wrote:Some news that seems a bit strange to me. Apparently, Congress is confident about winning Chhattisgarh, and is going to give a close fight in MP.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131127/j ... pVRNMQ3v5o

Does anyone know anything about the author Sanjay Jha?
Seriously, you don't know Sanjay Jha ? Google him.

I don't think this Sanjay Jha is the same as the HamaraCongress guy. This particular Sanjay K Jha is a regular Telegraph columnist. I don't know anything else about Sanjay K Jha.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 27 Nov 2013 10:37

http://cgkhabar.com/chhattisgarh-electi ... -20131127/

This news item says that in Sarguja, out of 11 Seats, Cong will get 8, BJP 1 while there is close fight in the remaining two seats.

The survey is done by CG Khabar

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 27 Nov 2013 10:40

All the jinxing and anti-jinxing aside, it does seem that Chhatisgarh and MP might throw surprises that we wont like, especially if EVM magic happens. Not good.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Nov 2013 10:49

^^ Am tempted to say the chattisgarhis will fully deserve what they vote for if they allow the Cong in... but if EVM magic is happening can't blame aam voter either...

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 27 Nov 2013 11:25

Meanwhile http://news.in.msn.com/national/india-l ... allup-poll

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 27 Nov 2013 11:44

My take on high voter turn out is that they want to strengthen the hands of Modi. Any loss will be immediately linked to "rejection of Modi" by con-gress. Meanwhile in Bengal, voters are strengthening the hands of Didi as seen from the rest of the recent municipal poll results.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Nov 2013 11:52

If (and thats a big if) evms have played fair, then its worth a watch what the young voters in particular are saying with their votes. The past decade with mobiles and TVs has brought unprecedented change and exposure and aspiration to vast multitudes previously shut out. Hope NM's message has reached them.

Also, I find this new, tech driven, targeted GOTV effort very commendable if indeed its led to a coupla % points of additional turnout...

Been looking out for news anywhere wherein people have found that their votes have already been cast (classic case of fake voters voting in other people's names in the poll register - the ease with which khujliwal had 3 voter IDs issued in 3 different constituencies in Dilli is a shock to me). Haven't found any so far but who knows...

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 27 Nov 2013 12:00

BJP people on the ground are quietly confident about MP, a little jittery about CG, but say they should make it for sure.
Jogi seems to be putting on a brave face IMO.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 27 Nov 2013 13:06

Last lap before Delhi Assembly Poll: AAP on the obstacles ahead

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/last- ... ef_article

Soumik Mukherjee

Firstpost

“When I joined the party my prediction was 2 seats and around 10-12 percent of the vote share. I said we should go ahead with a 20-year plan,” says Aam Aadmi Party leader Yogendra Yadav. “First election you only contest, the second election you cut heavyweight votes and then you win in the third election.”

Yadav, who claims that he has always been a conservative as a psephologist, is staying cautious despite a flurry of recent polls predicting up to 25 seats for the newly formed party in the Delhi Assembly elections. Yadav says the predictions left him wondering, though he added that these polls did reflect the ground reality.

But polls aside, there are plenty of other challenges and obstacles to contend with before election day, as the recent sting on the party by Media Sarkar revealed. There have also been two recent incidents where the party has lodged a police complaint claiming that people posing as AAP volunteers have been distributing cash among electorates. The party, however has given a clean chit to its candidates and filed a defamation suit against news portal Media Sarkar and another news channel.

After criticising journalists for not cross-checking the material in the video footage, Yadav admits, “True, we don’t have the workforce and funding to check on conspiracies before the election. And that’s why every day there is news of on-the-ground activity to damage our image.”

For a party built on idealism, these kinds of incidents pose an even greater threat. And the latest string of allegations relating to corruption has left party volunteers and workers baffled and doubtful. “That’s the first thing we have to mend. The raw footage which proves our candidates were innocent will be a great morale booster, though,” says Yadav.

Other than media scandals, the party also faces a significant numerical disadvantage on the ground, say veteran observers.

“In the last hour before the election it’s most important to have a strong network of grassroot workers and leaders. Because this is the segment that makes sure the votes swing in favour of a particular party,” says a senior journalist who has been covering Delhi politics for a long time now. “Both BJP and Congress and any other big regional party have this resource, where there are men who dedicatedly sit and keep complaining to the police against the misconduct of the other parties. It’s a hit and miss situation. But one time out of 10 it definitely works.”

Among the other factors that make AAP the underdog in the election is the Muslim vote, which is still loyal to the Congress.

“There is general hostility towards Congress this year, yet a certain section of the Muslims will go for Congress. But at the same time, it also depends on the candidate on the ground,” says Ashok Malik, a journalist and political analyst.

A more optimistic Yadav points out, “No doubt a sizeable number of Muslim votes lies with the Congress but the disgruntled section is sliding towards us.” They now have a real alternative to vote for, he says, as opposed to opting for the BJP or BSP.

The journey to swing the Muslim votes in its favor hasn’t been an easy one for AAP.

“After Anna Hazare‘s movement it was very important for the party to come out of the shadows of the Jan Lokpal movement. It was a Hindu majority movement because of Anna. After forming the party it was a major work for Arvind to reach out to Muslims,” says Yadav. “He distributed a public letter among the Muslim voters in Delhi and that letter is the reason that we got the Election Commission notice for addressing communal and religious issues.”

He says the party will cite the Sachar committee report clearly depicting the condition of Muslims in India.

One big break for the party is the minimal presence of the BSP. The party which came third in the last Assembly election with a majority of Muslim and Dalit votes is nowhere to be found this year. Having lost power in UP, Delhi now means little to the party. The virtual absence of the BSP may funnel a number of caste-based votes toward AAP, says Yadav, who notes, “The Valmikis have been with us but we are yet to build a sustainable presence in the Jatav community.”

A large number of Dalit votes will swing towards the Congress, say experts, because a major population of this class lives in the resettlement and unauthorised colonies that have been targeted by Sheila Dikshit. In the year 2012, the Delhi government regularised 850 unauthorised cluster of slums. “In the coming year we will make sure that Delhi is free of slums and JJ colonies,” Dikshit repeatedly claims in her interviews. Gaining traction among Dalits and Muslims may not, however, be enough. Due to the Narendra Modi factor and the popularity of his pro-development agenda, the upper class votes are Delhi are sliding towards the BJP.

Perhaps this is why — contrary to opinion polls which predict a shimmering scorecard for the Aam Aadmi party — the bookies have predicted high odds against an AAP victory. “The bookies have priced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the lowest at 2.25 paise and the Congress, despite the anti-incumbency factor, at 2.40 paise as a close second. The AAP at 3.40 paise is the least likely to win in Delhi and therefore the “most risky” to bet on,” a leading bookie told IANS on condition of anonymity. It’s also why Yogendra Yadav, who has a career spanning over two decades as a psephologist, sounds cautious yet resolute when he declares, “We are here to stay as a political party and change the way politics is done in the next 20 years.”

Copyright © 2013 Firstpost — All rights reserved

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Nov 2013 17:33

Show how right people on this forum, media crooks ...

Tehelka is extortion factory. True and Real. Exposed now due to Tejapal's rape.

Kejriwal is NACXLite who works as CON Team B. Yogendra Yadav is another traitor whose job is to ensure DIEnasty power.

SONIA's plan was: We will inundate rural people with FSB and MGNRE schemes while Kujliwal will divert urban fools with lofty words so that they don't vote for Modi in 2014. They can't afford to lose.

AAP will not go away even if it loses in Delhi. May be if it gets 1-2%. Otherwise they will hang on and try to bleed Modi as much as possible

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 27 Nov 2013 17:41

A survey claims that Kejriwal will win against Sheila Dixit. Seems a bit dodgy to me, but the survey comes from economic times, apparently.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/asse ... 434784.cms

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 27 Nov 2013 17:54

Another interview with Kejriwal. He says he will not quit politics if AAP loses. Is this an early concession of defeat?

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/wont-quit-po ... 0-258.html